2012 Cubs Preview: Starting Rotation

Ace Matt Garza

The name of the game is depth as revamped rotation is stockpiled with veterans, and determination of final two starters is a toss-up

The top of the rotation remains the same from 2011, as Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster will lead the group.  They appear to have switched places on the depth chart, however, as manager Dale Sveum says Garza will start on Opening Day in just his second year with the Cubs.  Dempster started Opening Day last year and enters his seventh season with the team. 

Sveum is correct in tabbing Garza as the team's ace.  His 10-10 record from last season doesn't show it, but he was definitely the best starter on this team as evidenced by his near 200-inning, 200-strikeout performance with a 3.32 ERA.  He received some of the worst run support on the entire league which explains his mediocre record. 

If Garza performs well in the ace role, it will only increase his trade value stock as the season goes on, which is exactly what the Cubs want.  He will be put in prime position to suceed on this season and, hopefully, flipped for high-level prospects at the trade deadline in July.  Garza, 28, is an emotional and vocal team leader in the prime of his career.  It shouldn't be a surprise if GM Jed Hoyer's phone bill balloons due to other GMs inquiring on his availability.  Oh right, most cell providers don't charge for incoming calls anymore.  So much for that, but you get my point.

Ryan Dempster

Then again, a great guy like Garza could be a valuable character to have around on this rebuilding team.  He is definitely the type of veteran around which a team is built.  In 2008, he took his young Rays team on his shoulders to the World Series, winning the ALCS MVP along the way.  When I chatted with Hoyer earlier this month, he told me that, ideally, he'd like to give Garza an extension if the time is right and he's not more valuable as trade bait, which remains to be seen.  I think both plans are viable options, although if he's traded I'll be sad to see him go.

Dempster, 34, is not the standout talent he once was.  After a shocking 200-inning, 200-strikeout season in 2010, he really came crashing back to Earth with a 4.80 ERA in 2011, again eating over 200 innings but also allowing over 200 hits and holding a 1.49 WHIP.  Dempster appeared to lose confidence in his soft changeup and cement-mixer slider.  Perhaps it would help if he didn't throw these pitches to break right down the middle of the plate.  Seriously, though, he struggled to keep these breaking pitches out of the dirt when he took them out of the strike zone and walked 82 batters on the season.

Paul Maholm

The #3 spot right now could be Paul Maholm's to lose.  Maholm has pitched in the Pittsburgh rotation his entire seven-year major league career, posting a respectable 4.36 ERA during that time amid a group that was anything but.  The 30-year-old is coming off the best season of his career with a 3.66 ERA in about 162 innings.  The southpaw is not a strikeout pitcher but he'll force plenty of groundballs with his frequently-used changeup.  Cubs fans have gotten a good look at Maholm since he has always been in the same division.  Alfonso Soriano has four career homers off him, which is more to any single batter besides Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips.  Maholm has only given up 13 career homers to lefty batters, however.

Two other pitchers who will surely get at least some starts this season are new arrivals, Chris Volstad and Travis Wood.  Volstad, who came from Florida in the Carlos Zambrano trade, is a very tall righty who still hasn't found success in the major leagues.  He uses all of his pitches low and inside on righties and lefties; hopefully he'll learn to use the entire plate with skill and confidence.  Hitters hit .310 off his fastball last year; that'll need to improve.  Perhaps he could switch it up with his changeup more often, as he threw his changeup only 5% of the time to righties.  If nothing else, Volstad, 25, adds young depth.

Travis Wood

Wood, also 25, probably has more potential.  In over 100 innings in 2010, he pitched to a 3.51 and but probably deserved even better, posting an impressive K/BB ratio with 86 strikeouts and only 26 walks.  In about the same amount of playing time in 2011, Wood regressed with a 4.84 ERA and a WHIP that ballooned from 1.08 the year before to 1.49.  This lefty should bring more of the strikeout stuff to the majors soon judging from his 8.4 K/9 career ratio in the minors.  He throws his fastball too much (76% of the time last year) but apparently he commands it well, meaning he's very advanced in his development process.  I would take Wood over Volstad any day.

The last legit option, in my opinion, is righty Randy Wells, 29.  Since his impressive rookie debut in 2009, Wells has scuffled through two disappointing seasons.  This is probably his last chance to prove himself.  With the wide range of candidates this year, a 4.99 ERA won't cut it this time.  Something in his mechanics has been lost along the way, as his career 6.0 K/9 ratio is a far cry from the high strikeout totals he used to rack up in the minor leagues.  So far his fastball has been too hittable.

Randy Wells

Casey Coleman, 24, had a strong debut in 2010 as he showed how he can win with minimal strikeouts but a lot of groundballs.  In 2011 he was really, really bad with a 6.40 ERA although his strikeouts were up.  If he wants to win, he'll have to do it the way he did in 2010, using Nationals starter Jordan Zimmermann as a model.  Coleman is definitely a longshot.

Speaking of longshots, there's another one in 27-year-old Jeff Samardzija.  He isn't a longshot because he's not up to the task; rather, he's such a dominant setup man that he's probably better served in the bullpen.  After an unbelievable rookie season in 2008, he was looking like a bust after horrible seasons in 2009 and 2010 switching between the rotation and bullpen.  I was sick of him and wanted him gone.  Instead, he came back in 2011 firmly staying in the bullpen and became one of the strongest setup men in the league, forming the best setup duo in baseball between him and Sean Marshall.  The Cubs will stretch him out in Spring Training to see what he's got as a starter just in case, but it's highly unlikely that he'll move.

The starting rotation in 2011 was the worst in baseball in terms of ERA.  This was definitely because of early injuries to #4 and #5 starters Wells and Andrew Cashner in the first week of the season, which exposed the team's lack of depth and sent then-GM Jim Hendry scrambling to fill a rotation.  Soon enough, Coleman, Doug Davis, Ramon Ortiz, and Rodrigo Lopez were getting far more time than they had earned in the major leagues.  The injuries blew up in the team's face, and it hampered the team's efforts to put together any kind of win streak.  This season, with new additions in Wood, Volstad, Maholm, Andy Sonnanstine, and Ryan Rowland-Smith, there will always be major league worthy arms available.

 

2012 Cubs Rotation: The Odds Game

Keep an eye on make-or-break rotation candidate Randy Wells.

As we head into February of this new year, the Cubs, like most teams, still have much to be decided in their starting rotation.  Thanks to the front office's dealings, there are a host of candidates for a rotation spot.  But which candidates are locks, which are maybes and which are long shots?  Staring at a list of candidates doesn't provide the reader with much information besides their own personal speculation.  I don't have any extra info to release or anything, but I do have a method to make the speculation more fun.  Here I place odds on each starter and his chances (in my opinion) of making the rotation.  The total adds up to 500%, each 100% representing one starter.

Matt Garza: 99% (LOCK)
Barring any trade or a steroid bust or whatever ridiculous idea you can come up with, Garza will be in the rotation from the beginning.  He should start Opening Day, but I have a feeling Dale Sveum will give the ball to his trusty veteran Ryan Dempster.  Still, though, Garza is the ace of the team.

Ryan Dempster: 99% (LOCK)
The Cubs picked up his $14 million option for 2012 even when, according to the new CBA, I don't think they would've lost a draft pick if he had left.  Dempster begins his fifth season in the rotation as a major bounceback candidate after losing his slider last year.  He's a good guy to have around, so he'll be worth it in probably his last year in Cubs blue.

Paul Maholm: 99% (LOCK)
Maholm has started every game of his big league career and won't stop now.  He'll be a solid rotation member, and his groundball strategy makes him a good fit for Wrigley.  No suspense here.

Travis Wood: 70%
Wood has proven himself to some extent in the big leagues with much room to improve.  He'll be the youngest member of this revamped rotation unless Trey McNutt makes some miraculous surge to the rotation.


Chris Volstad: 40%
I'll say the newcomer Volstad gets a fair chance in his first year with the Cubs.  He may not last the whole season considering his skill level, but a decent asset to have.  If not for Chicago, I think he'll be starting games in Iowa.

Randy Wells: 40%
It's been hard to read how the new management will deal with the Wells situation.  Wells is hard-working and a good teammate coming off two mediocre seasons which followed a breakout rookie campaign.  I'm a fan of Wells, but this season could be his last chance in the rotation.

Andy Sonnanstine: 20%
I'm sure Sonnanstine will do just fine with the coaching staff and such, but his signing does nothing to change the fact that he simply isn't a great pitcher at a 5.26 career ERA, and his repertoire doesn't leave much room for improvement at age 29.  He could be a nice flex/spot starter option out of the bullpen, but it'll take an overhaul for him to start all season.

Rodrigo Lopez: 20%
I was against the resigning of Lopez because he doesn't provide the ballclub much of anything besides his on-field display which wasn't very impressive.  I worry that the new regime will take Lopez as a veteran sign of stability.  The right move, however, is to leave him in Iowa.

Casey Coleman: 8%
After a solid trial period in 2010, Coleman got 17 starts last year in an injury-fill in role.  It, umm, didn't go so well.  He finished with a 6.40 ERA, giving up almost 11 hits per nine innings.  Back to Iowa, young one.

Trey McNutt: 5%
The wildest of wild cards!  McNutt is the organization's top pitching prospect despite taking a few steps back last year.  He hasn't even proved himself at Double-A ball yet, but apparently he'll head to big league camp.  Sending him to the majors this early would be a complete train wreck.  Don't even try it.

Cubs Dump Sean Marshall; Acquire Travis Wood, 2 prospects from Reds

Sean Marshall, traded to Cincinnati, was the Cubs' best reliever

Cincinnati overpays for bullpen depth in the first Cubs rebuilding package

Vacation Note: I just got a look at the Miami Marlins’ new ballpark; pretty sweet.  If you’re in Miami and looking for it, I think it would be more helpful if I told you to look for an alien spaceship though.  The huge retractable roof stadium, named New Marlins (insert corporate sponsor here) Ballpark, is extremely tall and a sleek silver color all the way around with an oval-like curvature.  You can peek inside from behind the outfield (where the walls are open) and see the jumbotron and some of the upper deck seats.  I hope to return to see a game in the near future. 

      

Although it’s old news by now, the trade of Sean Marshall to Cincinnati was probably the most important of the offseason so far.  Its importance should not be overlooked.  Even though it was a trade of a setup man for a back-end, somewhat unproven starter and two prospects unheard of to the everyday fan, it represents the first rebuilding deal the Cubs have completed in, well, a while.  ‘Rebuilding’ has not exactly been the Cubs’ cup of tea over the last decade.  Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, however, are believers. 

In this faith, the Cubs will surely execute more rebuilding deals at some point, if not in the next month or so.  MLBTradeRumors.com is reporting interest from the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, and Marlins in Matt Garza, although Detroit and Miami are the front runners at this point.  It may seem like a trade of Garza, especially following Marshall’s, would be the official raising of the white flag on the 2012 Cubs season.  However, the trade with the Rays that brought Garza to the Cubs must have looked the same way to their fans.  They basically dealt their ace for a handful of minor leaguers but made the playoffs anyway.  I’m not saying the Cubs will make the playoffs by any stretch if they make a Garza trade, but it wouldn’t transform them into a 100-loss team either. 

Travis Wood

The trade of Marshall overall certainly makes the current Cubs a worse team, seeing as the bullpen was the team’s lone major strength on the roster.  Marshall was the center piece as one of the best setup men in the game.  A very pressing need, though, in rotation depth was aided by this trade, as 25-year-old Travis Wood joins the roster.  Wood has played in two major league seasons with decent yet inconsistent success.  

Looking at the Cubs rotation right now, though, this includes Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza pending any possibly trade, Andrew Cashner, and Randy Wells, and you can see the Cubs need this depth.  I’d much prefer Wood over any of Rodrigo Lopez, Ramon Ortiz, or Doug Davis.  Wood wasn’t born with blow-away stuff but is almost a solid rotation candidate, and that’s good enough for me.

Now on to the smaller pieces of the deal.  The Cubs only had to give up Marshall to for the deal, but the Reds gave up Wood, the great-hitting outfielder Dave Sappelt and undersized but agile and speedy shortstop Ronald Torreyes.  Sappelt has limited major league experience; Torreyes has none.  But both players have hit well throughout the minor leagues and Torreyes brings major speed.  Sappelt could see some action on the 2012 Cubs as a sixth outfielder/injury replacement.  Torreyes has no chance of appearing at Wrigley next season; he ought to try Double-A first.  He is recorded at 5’9” but in reality is around 5’8” or 5’7” (very similar to Dustin Pedroia).  I like both players and think they both have a decent shot at being major league regulars.  Neither stars, but solid players.  ESPN’s Keith Law agrees, and I concur with Law that the Cubs have won this trade. 

Dave Sappelt

Marshall provides the Reds with bullpen insurance.  I guess he’s the logical closer or back-up closer (which they will need, considering Francisco Cordero’s recent occasional closing issues and that he's unlikely to resign) although he has never been actually been tested as closer before.  When Carlos Marmol lost the job last summer, Marshall got a few chances in the ‘closer-by-committee’ role but that wasn’t enough of a trial to serve judgment.  He’s a loss because he has been the most consistent reliever on the Cubs since 2009 and only he and Marmol have even been a part of the unit since then.

If only counting for the trade’s effect on 2012, I still like the trade.  When early injuries to Wells and Andrew Cashner last season exposed a blatant lack of depth, Jim Hendry was forced to sign Ortiz, Davis, and Lopez in bad veteran signings who had to be signed just to fill the lineup card on a daily basis.  With this move and move forthcoming, the Cubs won’t have to do that.  Wood is young and here to stay while he develops.  It’s safe to say he will improve over the next few years.  Marshall is at his peak right at this moment and at age 29, it's hard to see him getting better over time.  He's elite at the moment but will only go downhill from here.  So in both the long-term and short-term, this deal really does makes sense for the Cubs.

         

Homestand Analysis: Houston, Milwaukee

Starlin Castro narrowly missed
getting his 200th hit at home.

Record: 4-2
Final Record: 69-87

Carlos Lee, despite all odds, has actually had a really great season.  Call me crazy, but the Astros former outfielder (now part-time outfielder and part-time first baseman) has a WAR this season of a full 7.0 points higher than last season!  For comparison, Ryan Braun's 7.2 WAR is 4th in the NL.  Unfortunately for Lee, however, his WAR last season was -2.5, making this season's at 4.5.  Still a very impressive turnaround, and the move to first base definitely hides his defensive weaknesses.  His defensive WAR this season is up 4.0, from -2.0 to 2.0.

Lee hit a solo homer in Friday's game at Wrigley Field for what should have been the only run off Matt Garza.  Even though it was only his 17th of the season, he has been very clutch and improved his walk rate to the point where his OBP improved nearly 50 points compared to last season.  With two outs and two strikes in the ninth on Lee with a 3-1 Cubs lead and a man on base, Lee tagged Garza, who was a strike away from a complete game win, for a two-run game-tying home run.  Marlon Byrd drove in the winning run with an infield single in the 12th.

Despite Lee's great season, the Astros have undoubtedly been the worst team in baseball.  Even though they haven't won the division since 2001, their franchise history reveals that even when bad, they've managed to stay mediocre and avoid disastrous, 100-loss seasons.  Only eight times in the franchise's 50-year history has the team finished with more than 90 losses.  But this seasons, all bets were off and the 'Stros were on pace to lose around 115 games even in May.  Although they definitely won't lose that many now, they lost their 100th on Saturday against the Cubs.  Rodrigo Lopez dominated and Bryan LaHair homered for the go-ahead run early but the lead stood 2-1 at the end.

Bleacher fans celebrate the last home win of the season.
Attendance was down for the fourth year in a row at
Wrigley, but hope is on the horizon this offseason.

Ryan Dempster had one of his typically awful first innings on Sunday but calmed down after that, giving up just those first three runs.  In the 8th, a three-run homer by Carlos Pena appeared to give the Cubs a 4-3 lead, but official review revealed the ball bounced off the yellow rope which divides the home run line and came back into the park, which is in play.  The tying (Starlin Castro) and go-ahead (Pena) runs had to stay at third and second, respectively.  Byrd failed once again with runners in scoring position (surprise, surprise) and that was the only chance the Cubs would have.  The Cubs took two of three, but should have swept.

Geovany Soto drove in all five runs on Monday night against Milwaukee on two homers and a single.  His first homer got onto Waveland Ave, making him the first Cub to reach Waveland this season.  Jerry Hairston Jr. homered off Casey Coleman for his only earned run, and Carlos Marmol performed his routine over-dramatization of a 'save' with a four-run lead by allowing Casey McGehee a 9th inning homer then putting on a few baserunners.  But with the tying run at the plate, the Cubs escaped, winning 5-2.

Mike Quade expects to be back next season, but the
new GM will probably have other (better?) ideas

Tuesday's game was a mess as los Cerveceros put up four on Randy Wells in the 4th inning.  Wells' late season hot streak is definitely over.  Castro was the only Cubs run in the 6th when he homered off Shaun Marcum, who was otherwise practically untouched.  Aramis Ramirez left early with an injury in what could be his last game at Wrigley as a Cub.

In the final home game of the season Wednesday afternoon, the Cubs passed 3,000,000 in attendance.  At 3,017,966 (an average of 37,258), the Cubs just barely passed the mark for the eighth year in a row.  Although 3,000,000 is a great feat achieved by a lucky bunch of larger-market teams, the extra empty seats at Wrigley was no secret.  Through April and May, it didn't look like the Cubs had any chance to get back to 3M, but consistent crowds of 39,000+ in the summer months pushed it through.

In 2008, the Yankees and Mets both had over 4,000,000 in attendance, but higher ticket prices and a recession saw no more 4M teams since.  There won't be any of them this season either; not even close.  The Phillies, MLB's attendance leader, would have to have around eight more home games to reach that.    This season, seven teams have reached the 3M mark and the Angels will by the end of the season.  The first seven in order are the Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Twins, Red Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals.

Matt Garza celebrates his complete game win
to close the 2011 home schedule.

D.J. LeMahieu doubled in two in that home finale as part of a 7-1 blowout.  Byrd hit a three-run homer and Garza got his complete game this time, ending the home season on a high note.  Castro, hot in the pursuit of 200 hits on the season as the NL's hits king, had three chances to get it but was intentionally walked, grounded out to short, and walked.  He got his 200th leading off Friday's game in St. Louis, so not to worry.

The last road trip of the season features St. Louis and San Diego.  The Cubs can really hurt St. Louis' playoff chances with even one win, which they got Friday night.  The Padres aren't playing for much, but the Cubs should be able to close out the season with a series win there.  It's hard to believe the Cubs are done at Wrigley in 2011, but Opening Day feels like years ago.  Watching baseball at Ye' Olde Wrigley was less fun than usual without an alcoholic aid...but big change is coming this offseason and it definitely won't get any worse than it was this season.  Financial flexibility will make us a better team next season, so I foresee games at Wrigley being a significantly hotter ticket next summer than this one.

Homestand Analysis: Pittsburgh, Cincinnnati

Cubs catcher Koyie Hill awaits the throw from Reed
Johnson to tag Edgar Renteria out at the plate late in
Wednesday's game.

Record: 3-3
Final Record: 62-81

As weird as morally wrong as it sounds, the Pirates marched into Wrigley Field last weekend as the statistically better team.  Being a young Cubs fan, I still felt the Cubbies mysterious aura of superiority against the Bucs, seeing as they've had it for, like, the last 20 years.

But the Pirates came to play.  Recently called up starter Brian Burres' only blemish was a Carlos Pena home run before the Pirates bullpen was perfect for nearly four innings, holding their 3-1 lead to the end.  A typical, forgettable game which wasted a great start from Ryan Dempster.

Derrek Lee returned from the DL on Saturday and started at first for Pittsburgh.  His only two homers as a Pirate came against the Cubs in that four-game series in early August, which was actually his Pirates debut.  His third homer also came against the Cubs, a grand slam off Carlos Marmol in the 9th of a 5-3 game.  The Pirates took the lead and the win thanks to Marmol finding yet another method to lose a game.  This was his ninth blown save of the season, an unacceptable mark by any measurement.  After being fooled last season, I've come to the conclusion that he isn't made to be a closer.  Marmol is an 8th inning guy, and should be treated as such for the rest of his career.

You know the whole 'get in front of the ball' tactic coaches
teach outfielders starting in T-ball?  Apparently Alfonso
Soriano (still) hasn't gotten the technique down.

Marlon Byrd picked up two RBIs and Randy Wells won his seventh game of the year as the Cubs beat Pittsburgh to end the season series between the teams, with the series ending tied 8-8.  Next came the Cincinnati Reds, out of the pennant race and relevance again as the NL Central will have a different champion for the fourth year in a row.

Dontrelle Willis made his first start at Wrigley Monday afternoon since May 29, 2007, except this time he started for the Reds.  After a sharp first few innings, he lost it during a rally in the 5th inning, where five straight batters got on base.  The Cubs' 4-1 lead barely held up to the 9th, when Marmol rebounded with a 1-2-3 inning, which was surprising to say the least.  Vegas oddsmakers must be stumped on how to gauge this guy.

Mike Leake started Tuesday, and the Cubs basically gave him a complete-game shutout.  Swinging way too aggressively, the Cubs were hanging on to their last hope in rookie Bryan LaHair in a 2-0 game with a man on when LaHair launched a ball onto Sheffield to tie the game with two outs in the 9th.  The Cubs would lose in extra innings, but this LaHair dude is some kind of exciting.  38 home runs this season alone in the Minor Leagues?!  His power numbers are unheard of and were leading the Minors by a wide margin when he was called up.  At 28, many would call him a late bloomer.  But with this ridiculous power, I hope he finds a bench spot on the roster next year while they decide which defensive position for him will cause the team the least damage.

The Reds were the ones who came back on Wednesday, but the 3-3 tie game was short-lived.  Pena launched a three-run monster blast over the bleachers.  Marmol got save #33 and the Cubs took the series from the Reds.  This series was very tight and each game came down to the end, but I really liked the starting pitching they displayed here.

The Cubs now need to go 19-0 the rest of the season to get to .500, 14-5 to match last season's record, and 11-8 to avoid losing 90 games this season, which is big from a moral standpoint.  Given the easy schedule remaining, hopefully it will be somewhere around the third option, as the first two are unrealistic for this team.

Next up for the Cubs is the Mets in New York, where they haven't played since April 2010.  The streak of not playing there for that long was the longest among NL teams.  Because of September 11, the Cubs and Mets, two teams well out of contention, will be ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.  I can't remember the last time ESPN showed a September game between two teams a combined 40 games out of their divisions or whatever.  Not that I'm complaining, but the producers definitely were hoping it would be the Yankees hosting the Rangers or some other contender for the ceremonious ten-year September 11 shindig.  Hey Cubbies, just don't embarrass yourselves on national TV like you have a knack for doing these days (see: Starlin Being Starlin?).

Road Trip Analysis: Milwaukee, San Francisco

Record: 2-4
Final Record: 59-78

The shift of power in the NL Central was on full display in Milwaukee for the first three games of this six-game road trip for the Cubs.  Miller Park, which used to welcome an arguable majority of Cubs fans during these summer I-94 series games, hosted packed houses of hometown fans each night, and they all went home happy.

The Brewers easily swept the three-game series, giving up the lead in only the first game.  Comeback attempts on Saturday and Sunday both fell short by two and one runs, respectively.  Brewers closer John Axford got the save in all three games.  In late July at Miller Park, the Cubs were also swept by the Brewers with Axford getting a save in all three games.  With the sweep, the Brewers improved to an incredible 50-16 at home.  The historic 2008 Cubs only went 55-26 at home.

As the playoffs approach, the Brewers appear unstoppable at home.  Home field advantage will be a huge factor in their games as they have struggled on the road.  From the Cubs standpoint, there was little to be remembered in this series besides a Starlin Castro leadoff homer on Friday and the comeback that fell just short on Sunday, including a Tyler Colvin homer in the 9th.  These appear to be the famous 'dog days of August' that just won't end.

Perhaps to escape the scorching heat, the Cubs traveled to a city whose temperature barely fluctuates seasonally in San Francisco.  The world champs were losing their divisional grip on Arizona, a team that hadn't been given much love by the 'experts' in the media.  But the Cubs would help them out big time here, a win-win in my book.  The Giants have a horrifically bad, Mariners-like incompetence offensively where a good batting average is .240.

If they hadn't looked bad enough yet this season, Randy Wells totally embarrassed them Monday night.  Wells threw his first ever complete game in shutout fashion, allowing only four baserunners on two hits, a walk, and an error.  Three homers off ace Tim Lincecum, a first in Lincecum's career, knocked him out of the game and the Cubs eventually won 7-0.  Matt Garza couldn't match Wells' performance, but he earned his 7th win of the season the next night as the Cubs won 5-2 behind solid offense and an Alfonso Soriano homer for the second straight night.

Madison Bumgarner shut out the Cubs for eight innings on Wednesday afternoon and the Giants won 4-0, but they still only scored six runs in the entire series.  For this lack of offense, the Giants will miss the playoffs this season.  Even though the Cubs didn't show up hardly at all for the last game, taking two of three from the defending world champs always will earn them bragging rights.  And offense or no offense, the Giants pitching staff is still one of the best and the Cubs put up plenty of runs the first two games.  Lincecum had allowed two homers in a start just nine times in his career and not ever to the Cubs, but Soriano, Geovany Soto, and Blake DeWitt managed to make history.

Next up for the Cubs will be their second to last homestand of the season against two mediocre division opponents, the Pirates and Reds.  As the rosters open up here at the end of the season, look for the debut of some of their newest youngsters like first baseman Bryan LaHair who ripped up the Pacific Coast League in Triple-A with 31 homers and overall one of the best offensive seasons in Iowa Cubs history.    

Homestand Analysis: Florida, Philadelphia, Houston

Record: 5-5
Final Record: 42-60

Fresh off a trip to the All-Star Game, Starlin Castro returned to Chicago to rejoin his team for a four-game set against the Florida Marlins, who were making their last trip to Chicago under that name before they become the Miami Marlins next year.  The Marlins went out with a bang too, taking three of four games and outscoring the Cubs 27-13.

Two of the three losses should have been wins for the Cubs, and only one of those two was actually the Cubs' fault.  A typical Carlos Marmol ninth inning implosion blew the lead and the game in both teams' first game after the break on Thursday night.  After a win on Friday and a blowout loss Saturday, the Cubs were robbed of at least extra innings by second base umpire Lance Barrett, who blew the call on a pickoff play that would have gotten Kerry Wood out of a serious jam in the 8th.  Wood and the Cubs were livid, but there is no instant replay on those calls and they just had to deal with it.  Wood went on to walk in the go-ahead run and the Cubs would never get the lead back.

While losing three of four to Florida might have seemed bad, the Cubs had an even taller task ahead of them when the Phillies came to town on Monday.  But for the second year in a row, the Cubs beat Phillies ace Roy Halladay and opened off the series with a surprising win.  Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena added home runs in the game.

While Ramirez and Pena and known sluggers, it would still be a surprise to see one of them homer of Phillies southpaw Cliff Lee, widely regarded as one of the best pitchers in baseball known for his impeccable control.  But it was a kid with five career homers heading into the game who would homer off the veteran Lee on this night.  Castro's two-run first inning blast gave the Cubs a lead that would hold up until the 8th, when Sean Marshall blew it on a double by Chase Utley.  As I've mentioned in previous posts, Mike Quade has taken a lot of blame for leaving in pitchers too long.  Perhaps preparing for potential extra innings, Quade left in the demoralized Marshall to pitch the 9th, and a two-run double by Michael Martinez gave the Phillies a lead they wouldn't give back.  The mistake by Quade was inexcusable, and I was highly disappointed that this problem still plagues Quade.

After the Phillies finished their series win with a blowout in nothing-to-see-here fashion, the stumbling Houston Astros came to Wrigley Field.  The Astros had gone 9-3 in their last 12 games at Wrigley Field before this series, but that was certainly bound to change.  This year's version of the Astros is unprecedentedly bad and on pace for around 110 losses, which would be a franchise worst.  In fact, the Astros have never lost 100 games in the franchise's 50 year history, but that will change at this rate.  And a sweep from a fifth-place Cubs team definitely won't help them avoid it.

The Cubs took the Friday matinee by power, as Alfonso Soriano and Ramirez had key homers to take it 4-2.  Randy Wells, pitching for his life in the rotation, came through with just one run allowed Saturday and was allowed to stay in the rotation.  Marlon Byrd and Geovany Soto joined the homer party in support.  Speaking of homer party, Carlos Lee gave the Astros the lead 4-3 on Sunday with a shocking two-run homer in the 8th.  Lee, a notorious Cub killer, has 36 career homers against the Cubs, which is 17 more than he has against any other opponent!  But my immediate reaction to Lee's homer on Sunday was, 'Isn't this guy too old for this now?!'  Lee's homer, just his eighth of the season, was quickly forgotten by Cubs fans, however, as a Soriano single tied the game just a half-inning later.  In the 10th, Jeff Baker singled to left to win the game and begin the walk-off celebration.

And just like that, the Cubs took their first three-game sweep of the season.  Oh, and that was also their first three-game winning streak in nearly four months of baseball.  See, it wasn't that hard guys.  Does it really count against a team like the Astros?  For our purposes, yes.

For how ugly the homestand started, you have to give the team credit for rebounding and sweeping the Astros.  But the Cubs should have taken three of four from the Marlins and two of three from the Phillies, counting the game that Marshall and Quade unintentionally colluded to blow.  Counting the sweep of the Astros, that would've been an 8-2 homestand.  But the past is the past, and as the all-mighty Da Coach says, the past is for cowards.  Point being the Cubs have to take the positives and work forwards to have any chance of a late-season rebound like last year's.  

Homestand Analysis: Colorado, San Francisco, Chicago (AL)

Record: 4-4
Final Record: 35-50

Against the Rockies, the Cubs finally got their first series sweep of the season.  Unfortunately, it was a one-game series, as in a makeup game for the rainout back in April.  This means the Cubs have yet to sweep a three-game series, and also haven't even won three in a row.  But play later in the week was encouraging for the Cubs.

Behind two homers each by Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena, the Cubs rolled past the Rockies 7-3.  The four homers would be the first four of 12 homers on the eight-game homestand.  Something was definitely in the water, as even backup Koyie Hill added one to the tally.  The annual weather swing has struck Wrigley, with that summer wind blowing out to the bleachers.

In the Colorado game, starter Matt Garza gave up a deep fly ball to left field by Carlos Gonzalez.  Alfonso Soriano went back to the track at his typical, lackadaisical pace.  Soriano eventually just pulled up and stopped, facing the wall, waiting for the ball to drop.  Garza, standing on the mound and thinking Soriano couldn't see the ball, raised his arms and said, "What are you doing?!"  Sure enough, the ball landed in the bleachers for a home run.  Garza, like most of the rest of the players, was shocked.  This evidence of the bandbox that Wrigley Field becomes in the summer has to come as a big surprise to the newcomers like Garza, who thought this ball would be a routine flyout.

The jetstream helped the Cubs for the rest of the homestand.  Ramirez hit six homers on it, en route to a well-deserved National League Player of the Week award.  But even that couldn't help the Cubs from looking absolutely dreadful in the doubleheader against the Giants on last Tuesday.  The Cubs were blown out by baseball's worst offense, reminiscent of their similar drubbing of the Cubs at Wrigley Field last year.  For the Cubs, Doug Davis and Rodrigo Lopez started the two games and the results are history.

Thankfully, the Cubs salvaged the last two games in impressive fashion.  A 1-0 ninth inning lead was blown by Carlos Marmol, but Ramirez singled home the winning run just a half-inning later on Wednesday night.

On Thursday afternoon, the Cubs put together one of their most complete wins since 2008.  Marcos Mateo pitched five incredible innings of relief after Carlos Zambrano's injury allowed him just one inning.  Ramirez erased a 1-0 deficit on a 95 mph fastball off Giants closer Brian Wilson.  Darwin Barney hit a huge clutch double in the 13th inning to tie the game at two after the Giants took the lead in the top half.  Geovany Soto stepped up and, two pitches later, ended the game with a three-run walk-off homer that was one of the most amazing moments the Cubs have had in the last decade.  The game was intense throughout and the Cubs trailed twice facing a loss, coming back both times.

In their millionth attempt to win a third game in a row, the Cubs were again denied, this time by the White Sox.  The Cubs didn't commit any errors on Friday in the series opener, according to the box score.  A mental error by manager Mike Quade cost the Cubs the lead in a tie game.  Quade has been sharply criticized this season for leaving in starters too long, and although much of this criticism is unfair, there's a case for this game to be examined.  Randy Wells gave up the two-run lead he had in the seventh, increasing his runs allowed total to four.  After Alex Rios reached base, Quade allowed Wells to pitch to Juan Pierre who lined a two-run triple to gave the Sox a lead they wouldn't give back.  Quade's mental error wasn't something major on his part, but I believe it was just the wrong decision.

A blown call at second base on a double play ball prevented the Cubs from tying Saturday's game at one, and the Cubs lost 1-0.  Garza threw a complete game despite losing, a sign I love to see.  Back in the Lou Piniella days, Garza would've been yanked after eight regardless of his low pitch count and the fact that his performance had earned him another inning.  Garza has been the beneficiary of some serious bad luck this season, and his value to the team has been far underrated thus far.

The Cubs finally got a win on Sunday, which salvages all Cubs fans everywhere from having to hear those Sox fans yappin' their yappers about how they swept us in our own park, yadda yadda yadda.  Thank God.  A Starlin Castro RBI triple and Ramirez two-run homer built a small lead, and although Kerry Wood allowed the bases loaded in the 8th, the Cubs escaped, avoiding the sweep.  The Sox now lead the Crosstown Series 12-6 since 2009.

On this homestand, Cubs pitchers really started throwing strikes.  In the case of Wells, Lopez, and Davis, who was released after his latest shellacking, this tactic didn't work so well.  In the case of Garza and Ryan Dempster, this worked very well.  Keeping a lower pitch count should allow the starters to go later in games, which is something the Cubs need.  Garza's performance on Saturday was incredible; but not as incredible as the fact that he lost.    

Road Trip Analysis: St. Louis, Cincinnati, Philadelphia

Record: 2-8
Final Record: 25-39

As the Cubs finished this road trip, they watched their spot in the standings drop to becoming one of the NL's worst teams.  The last loss to Philadelphia Sunday afternoon left them 3-13 in their last 16 games.

Albert Pujols didn't help the Cubs in their quest to return to .500 at all.  Walk-off home runs on back-to-back days at Busch Stadium propelled the Cardinals to a sweep.  The first homer, off Jeff Samardzija, was a well executed changeup below the knees.  The pitch was a ball, but Pujols homered anyway.  A moment like this mandates a sportsmanlike tip of the cap.

But on Sunday, Pujols had a much easier path to victory.  Rodrigo Lopez left him a fastball right down the middle, and Pujols had no issues driving it out of the park to become just the second player since Ron Santo in 1966 to hit walk-off homers in back-to-back games.  The Cubs were just simply beaten at the end of the day, although having been beaten in such a preventable manner was disturbing.  If Pujols can hit Cubs pitching that well, imagine the damage he could do in batting practice if he came to play for the Cubs.  Not that he will or anything, but an interesting thought.

The team showed a variety of ways to lose on this trip while the injury bug continues to infect the entire roster.  The Cubs were without Alfonso Soriano for the entirety of the trip, and weren't too impressed with the continued return of Randy Wells.  Giving up grand slams to scrubs like Miguel Cairo can never be a good thing.  And the only two bright spots on the entire trip were the highlights of the two wins.  Ryan Dempster shut down the Reds in seven innings, Carlos Pena launched a 443 foot blast to right field in Cincinnati, and Tyler Colvin hit what should have been the go-ahead homer in the opener of the Philly series, breaking an unbelievable 0-for-34 slump.

Besides these things, there weren't many positives that came out of this trip for the Cubs.  So I won't bore with complaints about the losing, because it's become more routine.  At least we know what we're getting here.  Nowadays, the phrase goes 'bad teams find a way to lose'.  With this brand of baseball, it appears Cubs fans will just have to Wait Till Next Beer yet again.  

Road Trip Analysis: Cincinnati, Florida, Boston

Record: 3-4
Final Record: 20-25

The Cubs made their first trip to Cincinnati this season when they headed there last week for the first of the two scheduled two-game series on the Cubs schedule this season.  I'm not going to sugar coat it; the results of the trip to Cincinnati were catastrophic.  Two winnable games, which had we had won we would now be mere percentage points below .500, were thrown away by lack of effort and the worst defense you will see in the Major Leagues.

The first game was winnable by all means.  The Cubs had a 4-0 lead until the 6th, when Carlos Zambrano began his regularly scheduled blowup inning.  But he remained out there, and the Reds continued to hammer him while the bullpen struggled to get warm.  Zambrano had been carrying a three-hit shutout through five innings.  A walk, five hits, four earned runs with more to come on the bases with just one out later, Zambrano was relieved by Marcos Mateo.  But the damage was already done, as threw a wild pitch to score the go-ahead run and then a two-run homer to Jonny Gomes.  It wasn't just the ill-timed decision making that cost the Cubs this game; it was the lack of effort and the sense that they had given up.  Too many times I see this team sulking and just going down without a fight.  This is exactly what happened here, as if the Reds coming back was inevitable.

Just when it looked like it couldn't get any worse, of course, it did.  The Cubs came out the next night and the pitching staff, led by the starter that night Matt Garza, shut out the Reds.  In earned runs, at least.  The futile Cubs defense allowed the Reds to literally tie and win the game with seven runs, all of which were preventable by not throwing the ball away!  An error in the 4th by Carlos Pena was magnified after Garza hurriedly whipped the ball into the dugout throwing it home to get a runner.  That scored all three runs to tie the game.  Then in the 8th, the Cubs held a 5-3 lead, which Kerry Wood blew when he threw Ryan Hanigan's sacrifice bunt down the left field line trying to aggressively get the force at third.

I've only seen one other play like this one before, and it was in Game 5 of the 2006 World Series when Justin Verlander threw David Eckstein's bunt into left field trying to do the same thing.  But unlike that play, the ball this time got all the way down the line and to the wall.  Two more runs scored and the game was tied again.  Watching this play live, it's hard to describe the frustration that a Cubs fan feels when watching this stuff.  Dominique Wilkins of the Atlanta Hawks was known as 'The Human Highlight Reel' for his stunning ability to light up a highlight reel.  The Cubs as a team basically create the Human Incompetence Reel.

These two games should have been won.  They were key division games early in the season and the weather nullified much of the home field advantage.  This is a series the Cubs needed to win if they are going to get back into the NL Central mix.  They put together wins here and there this season, but they aren't going to win anything if they ever have another game like this (photo, left) or allow seven unearned runs.

After all of this, the Cubs headed to South Beach for their last series ever at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens.  Surprisingly, the Cubs won both games there in efficient fashion.  Not so surprisingly, it was their first sweep of the season, albeit a two-game series.  The Cubs did not commit an error in either game.

This led to the Cubs' first trip to Fenway Park in Boston since the 1918 World Series.  News of this World Series came up recently, when a report stemming from a document released by the Chicago History Museum suggested that the Cubs blew the Series for money, much like the White Sox did a year later.  I don't know the truth to this document, and it very well could just be the Sox player hassling the Cubs indirectly about something else.
 
Marlon Byrd was interviewed by Comcast SportsNet on Thursday night after the win against Florida and, when asked on his outlook for the Boston series, he replied, "Sweep Caroline."  I agree that the whole Sweet Caroline tradition at Fenway is really annoying, but hearing this stuff out of him gets tiring to be honest.  Last season, Byrd guaranteed the playoffs in May when the team was falling out of contention.  Well, you saw how that turned out.

The Cubs seemed overwhelmed by an American League offense in the first round on Friday night.  All three games were on national television, with WGN, FOX, and ESPN handling the games, respectively. After an uneventful 15-5 loss Friday, the Cubs bats woke up in the 8th inning of the game Saturday night, and the Red Sox collapsed which was reminiscent of the Cubs' defense collapses.  In a stunning change of momentum, the Cubs put up eight in the 8th and won 9-3.  As the Cubs closed out the bottom of the 9th, the huge contingent of Cubs fans that had traveled to Boston were chanting 'Let's Go Cubbies' at Fenway Park, an action pretty much unprecedented.  Every game at Fenway Park since April 2003 has been a sellout, so it's always full of Red Sox fans.  But Cubs fans took over Fenway late on Saturday.  Although that was nice, it was the only win in the series loss.

The Cubs were quietly shut down by knuckleballer Tim Wakefield on Sunday night.  Such a loss can be expected from the Cubs, as this is one of those games I notice where they just give up at a certain point.  The indifference of the group makes them less interesting to watch for sure, and this is the primary factor in the Cubs attendance struggles of this season.  But either way, this road trip was very up and down.  Mostly down, though, and the Red Sox-Cubs series generated nothing more than publicity for historical content, not a key turning point like it could have been.

Believe it or not, I have faith in the Cubs coming up in the next few weeks.  A nice, long homestand against three bad teams in the Mets, Pirates, and Astros is the perfect time to get into a groove, especially as the ivy will be grown, the weather will be nice, and the fans will be there.  And they'll need to get into a groove, because they then play 20 straight games against teams who had winning records last year.  But I have faith they will, because this team has hung in there despite slow starts from Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena, who are both hitting very well now.  Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner will be huge to this team, as the Cubs will no longer have to deal with immediate five-run deficits by way of James Russell every fifth day.  Hopefully, the Cubs will get lucky for once.
 
  

Treading Water

After the first two and a half weeks of baseball, the Cubs seem to be putting forth about the amount of success as last year's group.  With today's loss to the Rockies, the Cubs fall back under .500 again to 7-8, but now return home for a nice nine-game homestand.  Pitching has not been a great strength of the Cubs, and the rotation especially has underperformed quite a bit.  Carlos Zambrano, Matt Garza, and Ryan Dempster have all not pitched well really at all this season.  The injuries to Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner have hurt as well as James Russell was slammed his first start and Casey Coleman has had mixed results.

The bullpen, not including today's performance by Marcos Mateo, has been very good in general.  Carlos Marmol thankfully hasn't thrown out his shoulder yet (knock on wood), which is a concern I have for him just about every time he throws the baseball.  But the rotation has the Cubs playing more high-scoring games than usual.  The Cubs offense has scored 4.5 runs per game this season, and that should be enough to win with the rotation we have.  But Dempster, Zambrano, and Garza have ERAs of 6.30, 6.11, and 6.27, respectively.  Come on now guys, that's no way to run a railroad.

But the offense cannot go unnoticed.  Although they are averaging 4.5 runs a game which is near league average and only a bit above the 4.2 from last year, the Cubs are fourth in MLB in batting average, and fifth in hits.  We can owe plenty of those hits to a certain Starlin Castro, who as of Sunday night led baseball in hits with 28.  In my wanna-be highly-educated fan opinion, Castro is unbelievable.  Watching him out there is like watching a 12-year-old in park district game.  He just comes to play the game and nothing else, just trying to have fun.  It almost seems like he doesn't even feel the pressures and expectations of playing in the bigs, not to mention with all of the hype around him and the Cubs as a franchise and Chicago as a city.  Today watching the Cubs-Rockies game, I watched him bend over the plate to go get a ball well off the plate and ground it to Todd Helton at first base.  Len Kasper picked up on his anger with himself over becoming overanxious on the broadcast.  And after the inning ended and the camera was on him right before commercial, he swung up his helmet as if he was about to slam it in frustration.  This from a guy with a .418 batting average, four hits just the night before, and Chicago status as a fan favorite.

Although fielding has been an issue with this team so far as well, there's been an improvement over last year's performance and Castro has gotten much better so far, making better plays quicker despite two errors.  Basically, this team is waiting on the starting pitching.  It's not time to sound the alarm on the Garza trade yet, but he should know that that is exactly what will happen unless he starts putting up numbers and soon.  The poor performances from Zambrano and Dempster are surprising, to be honest, despite all the Zambrano haters who may have correctly pegged his successful comeback last season as a fluke.  Dempster's success seemed too easy last season, and it's finally catching up to him.  So far I've seen a whole bunch of - to use a Bob Brenly term here meaning a slider that spins but doesn't move hardly at all - cement mixers in the low 80s left high in the zone, right where hitters can get at them.  Hopefully he'll improve, because we need it.

NOTE: There's been some confusion on the results of the quiz giveaway from a few weeks ago.  I apologize for not making this clearer, but if you did win the free app then they would have replied in an email with the code to get the app free.  If you did not get this email, unfortunately you didn't win.  Thanks to all participants, I have deemed this partnership a success.  There may be future similar opportunities, so stay tuned.

"The Most Inexplicable Trade Ever?"

Now that the well-publicized Vernon Wells to the Angels for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera has sunk in for more than a week, I think it's time we compare.  Is this deal the worst trade of the offseason?  Of the decade?  Ever?

The worst trade in the recent history of baseball before the Wells deal is, in my opinion, when the Expos traded Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore to the Indians for Bartolo Colon back in 2002.  Colon had won 75 games over the past six seasons with the Indians, while none between Phillips, Lee, or Sizemore had even debuted in the Major Leagues.  Sizemore was just 19 at the time.  Colon went on to win 10 games for the Expos in 2004, then leave as a free agent that very offseason.  His WAR for that half season was 2.3.  In their respective careers, Phillips, Lee, and Sizemore have totaled a 51.9 WAR in the Major Leagues, although the Indians trade Phillips and eventually Lee also.  The bottom line is that the Expos sent their three best prospects for just one player in return, a 'rental' at that, seeing as how they knew Colon would be a free agent after that very season.  Clearly, it wasn't worth it.

Brandon Phillips has not gotten the most attention out there, but he quietly produces on the now-contending Reds.  His best season came in 2007, his second full season manning second base for Cincinnati in which he had a 30-30 offensive season, earning him some MVP votes.  He's been a consistent 20-20 player since 2006, but his run production took a step backward in 2010.  He was also thrown out 12 times to only 16 steals, but the 30 year old has lots of time to keep producing for the Reds.  His attitude and teammate chemistry make him a very valuable part to a Cincinnati Reds team that now depends on his leadership to contend.

Cliff Lee has arguably been in more trade/free agency rumors than any other player since 2009.  Playing for four teams in two seasons, Lee has become quite the hot commodity over this time.  Perhaps his most highly regarded trait is his control, something GMs scramble to acquire.  Lee walked just 61 in 444 innings between 2009 and 2010.  This is exactly the player Lee could have become playing for the Nationals, assuming they could sign him to an extension.  In 2005, just three years after the trade, Lee finished fourth in Cy Young voting with an 18-5 record and a 3.79 ERA.  The 2005 Nationals were a contending team in the first half, but lacked rotation depth and faded in the second half so Lee would have probably helped them become a winner.

Grady Sizemore was a 20-20 player in his first full season in 2005, at the age of 22.  He continued this trend until 2008, when he improved to 30-30.  From 2004-2007, he had a 3.7 defensive WAR, a signature characteristic of a five tool outfielder.  Oh, and he also had a 17.2 WAR over that time, followed by a 5.3 in 2008.  Although injuries have derailed his performance the last two seasons, Sizemore was arguably the best outfielder of the mid 2000s.  His combination of power, speed, defense, and enthusiasm for the game were enough to call him probably one of the best players in baseball as well.

Meanwhile, Bartolo Colon's career with his new team lasted a full three months and 17 starts.  The highlight of his tenure with Montreal came on August 19, 2002, when he shut out the Padres at home allowing two hits and two walks on 95 pitches.  Besides that and Colon's 10 wins in that second half, not much came to the Expos in this deal.  Colon signed with the White Sox in the offseason and good season there in 2003, and the Expos were left with nothing.  Essentially, the Expos gave up three future All-Stars in exchange for half a season from a decent starter in a season where the Expos never came close to the playoffs.

While that trade looks bad because Colon was gone in half a season and the other three are having great careers, Vernon Wells will probably have a decent career for quite some time on the Angels.  The fact that Wells is a good player is not being disputed by many; this trade looks worse on paper.  Wells' salary will not make his production worth it, and the Angels gave up the two following players:

Mike Napoli hit 20 homers for the third straight season in 2010, keeping up his reputation as a great power hitter for a catcher.  Napoli has always been a minus defensively, but his bat makes him a valuable commodity to a contending team, especially since power out of the catcher spot is hard to find.  Immediately after being traded to Toronto, the Blue Jays turned around and swung him to Texas.  Napoli is a great player to have on a winning team, which the Rangers figure to be in 2011.

Juan Rivera has also always been a negative defensively, but an effective player nonetheless.  Rivera had his best season in 2009, hitting 25 homers and 88 RBI in 138 games.  He doesn't walk much and probably won't make a big overall impact on a lineup on his own, making his best role a fourth outfielder or third outfielder subject to frequent substitution.

To be sure, Vernon Wells has had a nice career.  He was a consistent cog in the Toronto outfield for almost the entire 2000s.  From 2002-2010, Wells averaged .279 with 25 homers, 89 RBI, 9 steals, and a total 28.0 offensive WAR over that time period.  Despite two subpar seasons in 2007 and 2009, it's hard to look at the stat sheet and not realize he was a great player for some time.  

Now here's where it gets really, really ugly.  Vernon Wells enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2010, swatting 31 homers and 88 RBI.  But even that isn't good enough to live up to his contract.  The 32 year old Wells hit 16 or less homers in both 2007 and 2009 (in full seasons), providing for a real head scratcher as to why the Blue Jays would reward a 'slugger' with those gaping holes in the stat sheet with 7 years, $126 million.  Although the deal was signed in December 2006, it didn't go into effect until 2010, the first year of the deal.  Wells made over $15 million in 2010, but it gets worse.  Wells' deal runs for four more seasons, so he'll be 35 at the end, over which time the Angels are due to pay him around  $86 million.  In 2011, he's due $23 million and will be due $21 million in 2012, 2013, and 2014.  The $23 million he will make next season was higher than any non-Yankee in baseball.  Miguel Cabrera was the only player not playing in New York to earn $20 million in 2010, giving you an idea of what Wells' salary will be compared to.  Remember, although Wells has had some good seasons like 2010, he had two very bad seasons for a player who is being paid to drive the ball and these two seasons were recent.  Look at his stats page, scroll down to the Standard Batting chart, and notice the two seasons I've highlighted in blue.

So he's getting paid.  Like seriously paid.  Big time dough.  All that cash for a guy who's being paid for the run production, but is well past his peak and proof of that comes in the form of those two awful seasons that were 2007 and 2009.  And all that cash for a guy who had his best season, like, eight years ago.  His career highs in games, at-bats, plate appearances, runs, hits, doubles, homers (only 33), RBI, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, total bases, and even times hit by pitch, all came in 2003.  In 2003, he had lineup protection in Carlos Delgado behind him and table setters in Frank Catalanotto and Shannon Stewart in front of him, all three of whom are now out of the Majors.  Heading to the Angels, his only table setters will likely be Howie Kendrick and/or Erick Aybar, and his only lineup protection will be Torii Hunter.  The setup was better on the Blue Jays, and although a change of scenery could help him, his ceiling is low because there's no chance he will do much better than his 2010 output, if he even gets to that mark.  His career high of 33 homers in 2003 is nowhere near the career highs of the sluggers he is being to hit like.

In conclusion, I think the Vernon Wells trade is the worst trade of recent baseball history, worse than the Bartolo Colon deal.  Angels GM Tony Reagins had taken a lot of criticism nationwide for his whiffs on Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Beltre.  This move was, without doubt, a desperation move to try to compensate for missing on those elite players.  But not only does Reagins have to give up two decent players in Napoli and Rivera, he is now stuck with what most baseball experts cite as 'baseball's most untradeable player' in Wells and his enormous contract.  In the Bartolo Colon trade of 2002, Colon was gone by that offseason and although this didn't give the Expos much value, it also didn't tie down their future, either.  Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips all went on to be great players, but it's unlikely the Expos would have been able to resign all three or even two once they became established stars.  And now the Angels will have limited financial flexibility for at least the next offseason due to this contract monstrosity.  So while Wells may be smiling ear to ear to be out of Toronto where he never made the playoffs, Reagins won't be in four years.                

Is Matt Garza Worth It?

Ben Nicholson-Smith of mlbtr.com reports that GM Jim Hendry is trying very hard for Matt Garza in a deal that would send Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Chris Archer, and Brandon Guyer.  Garza is 42-44 in his career with a 3.97 career ERA, playing his career with the Twins and Rays.  He is 27 and has pitched 592.1 innings over the last three years, including at least 200 in the last two.  Garza will be an innings eater no matter where he goes but could become even better with the possible move to the National League, especially moving out of the powerful AL East.  There's no doubt that he is a great pitcher and could win 15 games, and is exactly the kind of guy the Cubs need, but he comes at a high price.

As I said yesterday about a possible trade for B.J. Upton, Chris Archer is the top pitching prospect in the Cubs organization.  If we are able to get Garza, Archer could be a guy we no longer need.  Hak-Ju Lee, a man I called the Korean Jose Reyes before the 2010 season, has fantastic speed and has shown it over the last two seasons.  He is the guy I would be most concerned about parting with; he could be a breakout player down the road.  But the fact is that the Rays have Reid Brignac at shortstop after trading away Jason Bartlett, and Brignac will never be a starting infielder in his career.  Lee is the speed that the Cubs need in the future, and trading him would add a lot of risk that he would burn us and become a star.  Guyer ripped through AA ball hitting a ridiculous .344 with 13 homers and 58 RBI in 102 games.  Guyer plays all three outfield positions, but that doesn't necessarily help his chances of making the Major League version of the Cubs.  He also stole 30 bases in 2010 and is a future 20/20 talent in the Majors.  But the Cubs have Tyler Colvin, Marlon Byrd, Alfonso Soriano, and Kosuke Fukudome in the outfield rotation and the Cubs would not want Guyer sitting on the bench playing every once in a while.  None of those four outfielders appear to be going anywhere soon, so Guyer is out of luck.  He's like Tyler Colvin, but with a lot of speed.  I think the Cubs would love to have him, but there's not room so he should be traded.  Chirinos isn't a youngster anymore at 27, an average hitting catcher who isn't anything special.  The Cubs don't have a necessity for him.

To the Cubs:
SP Matt Garza

To the Rays:
SP Chris Archer
SS Hak-Ju Lee
OF Brandon Guyer
C Robinson Chirinos

The Verdict: Pull the trigger.  If the Cubs acquire Matt Garza, this should be a winning season and the NL Central should be weak in 2011, giving the Cubs a shot at the division title.  Garza would give the Cubs a rotation of Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells, and Tom Gorzelanny or Carlos Silva.  An adequate rotation, to say the least.  Just reading that rotation is exciting!  Let's hope Hendry figures it out.

Road Trip Wrapup: Houston, Colorado

Record: 1-5
Final Record: 46-59
Games Behind First: 13 GB

This season probably marks the end of the playoff hopes for the Cubs.  With 57 games remaining and 13 games behind first, there is virtually no chance the Cubs can reach St. Louis and Cincinnati.  This series saw the Cubs do a whole bunch of things wrong and it was quite ugly.

On Monday the Cubs continued on their semi-roll with a 5-2 win improving to 7-4 after the break.  Carlos Silva, who had been just 1-4 in his last five decisions, got a win and Carlos Marmol closed it out after doubles by Geovany Soto, Marlon Byrd, and Alfonso Soriano collectively drove in four runs.  The most notable scoring on the night, however, was when in the 6th Ryan Theriot, wearing his socks high for a change of pace, homered to left center.  The homer was his first in 2010 and first since June 2009.  The next night Ted Lilly made his last start as a Cub and sadly it was a loss even though he got a no-decision.  Getting the worst run support in the major leagues, Lilly got none on this night while he was in and had to hang around for 5.2 innings before the Astros started scoring.  The Astros got two in the seventh before Lance Berkman hit a grand slam to open it wide open.  Being a face of the franchise for many years, that would be Berkman's last homer as an Astro before he was traded to the Yankees on Saturday.  A Tyler Colvin homer was the only damage the Cubs could muster against Brett Myers who threw a complete game.  Myers has been terrific for Houston, going at least six innings in every start this season.  Surprisingly, he was not traded but rather will become the ace of the staff after Roy Oswalt's Thursday trade to the Phillies for J.A. Happ and other prospects.  In the finale Randy Wells gave up three of the eight runs the Astros would score in the final three innings.  Carlos Lee hit two homers, including one off the foul pole that sent the fans home with chicken due to a local promotion.  The Astros took two of three.

Friday night in Colorado was all about making history.  That meaning the Rockies scoring 12 in one inning.  After an Ian Stewart homer that cleaned the bases obviously, the Rockies put up five more.  12 in total.  12!  Rockies win 17-2.  Carlos Gonzalez will remember the game Saturday night for his entire life, hitting a walk-off homer that completed the cycle.  Impressively, the Cubs rallied to tie it at five from a huge Derrek Lee homer.  However, the second Rockies cycle in as many years against the Cubs (Troy Tulowitzki did it last year) powered the Rockies to another win.  Carlos Silva was removed in the first inning with an irregular heartbeat and that accurately describes the state of the Cubs right now.  The Rockies got two in that inning before Blake DeWitt, the newest Cub, stepped in in the top of the 2nd.  He hit an RBI double off the wall in right field, putting the Cubs on the board in his first Cubs at-bat.  It was a blowout at 8-1 by the fifth in the Rockies' favor, but the Cubs put together a mad rally.  Alfonso Soriano's solo homer in the 8th put the Cubs within four at 8-4 and the Cubs might have tied it in the 9th if not for Dexter Fowler, who stole Soriano from extra bases.  Byrd scored on the sac fly anyway, but Soriano probably would have made third with the carom of the ball back the center field.  Soriano would have been the tying run.  The Cubs couldn't finish the rally, and were swept.

The only thing I was impressed with on this trip was their ability to rally showed in the last two games in Colorado.  I am a big fan of that because it makes the other team uncomfortable.  You don't want the other team to be able to sit back and relax and not worry if they make stupid mistakes.  Also, this is a huge team confidence and morale builder even if the game is not won.  Everything else about this trip was terrible.  The playoff hopes, slim at the start of the trip, and now gone.  I will make a post soon about the horrible trade that sent Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Blake DeWitt and two minor leaguers.  I was quite sad at the deal and I was very surprised that Theriot was traded.  To find out why, read the upcoming post which should be posted in anytime from tomorrow to a couple of days from now.    

Homestand Wrapup: Philadelphia, Houston, St. Louis

Record: 6-4

Final Record: 45-54

Games Behind First: 10 GB

The Cubs caught fire on this homestand.  The record may not show it, but the Cubs really started to put everything together in this week of 10 home games, the longest homestand of the year.  With two of the three teams in playoff contention for the past few years, the Cubs would be put to the test.  Ironically, they went 5-2 against those two teams but struggled against the 5th place Houston Astros.

The Phillies came to town after the All-Star Break pretty beaten up.  They're missing Chase Utley, their All-Star 2B, Placido Polanco, Jamie Moyer, whose future in baseball is now in question at 47 years old, and they're also missing consistent production from 38 year old Raul Ibanez.  The Phillies were falling behind the Atlanta Braves and were just trying to hang on until their stars return which will permit them to make a run at it.  Starlin Castro was credited with a steal of home on what should have been a wild pitch to give the Cubs a 3-2 lead Thursday night, and they never looked back.  Homers by Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, and Geovany Soto and two two-run doubles by Aramis Ramirez allowed the Cubs to cruise to a 12-6 victory despite the unreliable Bob Howry giving up four in the ninth.  He gave up two RBI singles and then a two-run homer to Ryan Howard, his second such homer of the night.  Ramirez, already on a hot streak at the time, came up in the clutch Friday.  Trailing 3-1 in the 6th, Marlon Byrd hit a two-run homer to tie the game and then two innings later Ramirez gave the Cubs the lead with a homer of his own.  The Cubs once again overcame a homer by Howard to win.  Saturday had the kind of game that you can't lose when you are a team trying to get back in the race but down a whole bunch of games.  Excitingly scoring in a scoreless ballgame was Starlin Castro in the 7th and the Cubs looked for a shutout.  Carlos Marmol was brought on for the save and the wrong Marmol showed up that day.  He beat himself rather than letting the Phillies beat him allowing five walks to just one hit in only two thirds of an inning.  Four runs came around and just like that Brad Lidge shut the door in a very frustrating loss.  Moving onto Sunday night the Cubs knew a win would be tough off Roy Halladay.  However, the Cubs impressively jumped on him supporting Tom Gorzelanny with a homer from Soto in the second, a four-run inning.  Later, Soriano homered to drive in two including himself.  The Phillies made it 6-3, but a five-run 7th opened the game wide open.  Halladay went just six innings, an unusual low for the veteran, as the Cubs took three of four from Philly.

The Astros aren't having a season to remember.  Filled with a few overpaid veteran contracts with guys past their prime and minor leaguers with little talent rushed to the bigs, the Houston franchise is pretty out of sorts right now.  Years of neglect to develop talent in the minors is hurting them badly as the franchise is in 5th place.  The Cubs really wanted a series win against a poor team like this.  Carlos Silva struggled badly in the 1st Inning of the game Monday night, allowing five in his only inning pitched.  Jason Castro hit a three-run homer in the 3rd, his 2nd career homer and that gave the Astros an unbelievable 8-0 lead. Soon enough, however, the Cubs offense started to piece together a rally.  Two runs had already scored for the Cubs in the game when Tyler Colvin hit a solo shot, followed by Aramis Ramirez launching a two-run homer that really was amazing in the moment because the Cubs offense didn't usually fight back like they did Monday.  Four runs put the game out of reach including a homer from Chris Johnson, his first Major League homer.  Tuesday night the writer witnessed the best home game for the Cubs all season.  The Astros, in their red alternate road uniforms like always, got another early lead this time for six runs.  Ramirez hit a solo homer to chip into the lead that looked somewhat meaningless at the time.  Chris Johnson hit another homer, his second in as many days, and that negated Ramirez's cut into the lead.  Wesley Wright, making his first career start for Houston, really ran into trouble in the 5th.  A passed ball after a strikeout of Xavier Nady brought in a run, and then a Starlin Castro RBI groundout, and then another homer for Ramirez, this time a three-run homer.  Just like that, it became a 7-6 game.  The Cubs took advantage of their momentum now with Geovany Soto hitting a huge tater to center over the Batters Eye lounge (447 feet!) to tie it up.  But the Cubs weren't done yet.  Derrek Lee picked up three RBI over the next two innings and Alfonso Soriano added an RBI single, and that set the stage for history.  Coming up with a 11-7 lead, Aramis Ramirez batted with two on and an excited crowd backing him for what would happen next.  Another fly ball went zooming into the night, and Ramirez incredibly got his third homer of the night!  He is the first Cub to do that since Alfonso Soriano did it in Cincinnati in 2008 after he did it in Atlanta in 2007.  Ryan Dempster joked after the game about not getting the win despite watching his team score 14.  For the finale the Cubs became frustrating again because they were not able to get a hit when they needed to.  Tied at 1 almost the entire game, the Cubs put runners on base in the bottom of the 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th including multiple runners in all except the 10th.  If they had scored in any of the first three innings mentioned, it's game over.  But no, the Cubs did like they always do and they let the other team just sit and hang around until they come back and beat you.  Interestingly Soto hit a two-run homer in the 12th but it was too late and the Cubs lost by one.

A frustrating series loss to Houston gave the Cubs an off day to stew in their anger before the rival Cardinals came to town.  These games would prove to be crucial with the Cubs chasing them in the division, down by 11 games at the start of the series.  On Friday afternoon, Randy Wells gave the Cubs pure greatness forgetting his catastrophic start his last time against the Cardinals.  He allowed hits to the first five batters and didn't record an out back in May.  Wells went seven shutout innings to earn the win supported by homers from Colvin, Soto, and Soriano all of whom appeared pretty hot this homestand.  Colvin hit another leadoff homer on Saturday, pretending to be Soriano, but the lead didn't last long.  Tyler Greene singled in two runs, but that lead didn't last long either.  Starlin Castro hit his first Wrigley Field homer to give the Cubs the lead again 3-2.  A critical wild pitch in the 5th with a ball that was thrown away proved extremely important as the 6-3 lead would prove necessary as the Cardinals crawled their way back to 6-5 in the 8th.  The Cubs pulled out the nail biter however, Carlos Marmol picking up the save.  If the Cubs could sweep Sunday night on ESPN then they would be just eight games back of the Cardinals.  After an early 2-0 lead for St. Louis, the Cubs came back with rallies in the 4th and 5th.  Albert Pujols homered in the 6th to tie it, locking up the score for extra innings.  Again the Cubs wasted opportunities and Felipe Lopez burned them with a go-ahead homer in the 11th for the win.

The Cubs could have easily been 9-1 on this homestand.  The only game where they were truly beat was the one on Monday night against the Astros, and even then they put up a great fight.  But little issues like Carlos Marmol on Saturday and offense hitting with runners in scoring position didn't allow the Cubs to make as much progress as they would have liked.  As I said before, the Cubs to are looking better and beginning to put things together but the Astros series this week in Houston certainly isn't promising.  They'll be put to the test against a good team in the Rockies this weekend at Coors Field, where the Cubs are 38-36 all-time.