2012 Cubs Preview: Bullpen

Kerry Wood

Young unit loses prime setup man but remains strong with hard-throwing core


The 2011 Cubs were simply not a good team at 71 wins, 91 losses.  The bullpen, however, was undoubtedly a team strength.  I believe that if the closer had been as good as he had for his entire career, this bullpen would have rivaled those of top contending teams.

That closer, of course, is the nasty Carlos Marmol, 29.  The side-arming right-hander pitched to a 2.86 ERA 61 saves, a 12.9 K/9 ratio, a ridiculous 4.8 H/9 ratio, but a 5.6 BB/9 ratio between 2008-10.  In 2011, however, he worsened to a 4.01 ERA with 10 blown saves, most in the National League.  In six of those blown saves, he also let up at least another run to lose the game.  He has the wildest delivery this side of Francisco Rodriguez but doesn't control it well as K-Rod does.

Carlos Marmol

Marmol throws far too many balls, especially to begin an at-bat.  It seems he always falls behind 2-0 before coming back with a slider over the middle of the plate for strike one.  The issues got so bad last season that he began throwing a cutter (or 'soft' slider) - without telling any coaches.  It didn't work, and manager Dale Sveum has already told him to knock it off.  No, Carlos, you're not Mariano Rivera.  Sorry, but the cutter just isn't that easy.  Marmol was given the ball with a lead to save 44 times last season, and he saved 34 of them.  Hypothetically, if given the same amount of chances this year, saving 40 should be a good goal for him.  It's certainly a challenge, but within his talent level.

Most of those leads handed over to Marmol had something to do with former setup man Sean Marshall.  Marshall, who, like Marmol, began his major league career as an unsuccessful starter, confirmed his status as one of the elite setup men in the game last year with a 2.26 ERA and 4.65 K/BB ratio.  Marshall was flipped to Cincinnati when his stock price was highest, meaning the primary setup man duties fall to Jeff Samardzija.

Jeff Samardzija

I talked briefly about Samardzija in the last post for the rotation, where he is being considered as the longest of longshots.  Truth be told, however, his loss would be a big blow to this 'pen.  His 2.97 ERA showed that he could be a good primary middle reliever, and now with Marshall's departure, he's ready for the next step.  He works lefties tough on the inside part of the plate.  Despite having the matchup advantage, they hit only .208 against the tall former Notre Dame wide receiver.  Righties didn't do any better, hitting .195 off him.  Too many batters got on base via the base on balls (50 of them, to be exact) but he still held hitters to a .220 average with men on base, which is hard to do considering the pressure on the pitcher at that point.  Some want to call his season a fluke, but I hope those factors of domination show that he's a changed pitcher and not just a lucky son-of-a-gun.

I haven't heard anyone call Kerry Wood's 2011 a fluke.  The 34-year-old pitched to a very respectable 3.35 ERA last season with 57 strikeouts in 51 innings.  As always, Wood brought the heat on a daily basis with that nasty curveball.  Wood is guaranteed a job with the Cubs for as long he likes, whether that means in the 'pen or front office.  For this season, however, he's a great option as a middle relief/setup man.

James Russell

Other primary names that will be in the mix include 26-year-old James Russell, 27-year-old Marcos Mateo, 26-year-old John Gaub, 24-year-old Rafael Dolis, 23-year-old Lendy Castillo and 27-year-old Scott Maine.  Clearly it's a very young group, but some have more potential than others.  Russell was tried in the rotation last year during the grand scramble for starting pitching, and he imploded.  Put back into middle relief though, he performed well.  I really like this kid's over-the-top delivery, it's very smooth and fundamentally correct; I hope to see him do well in this role this season.

Mateo is an less developed strikeout pitcher with a good fastball and slider.  He needs to work on his command to prove he can stay in the majors, but I like his raw stuff as it is right now.

John Gaub

Gaub throws some serious, serious heat.  In about 212 career minor league innings, he has struck out 298.  He made his major league debut last season and I believe will play a big role this year.  He's a lefty with a power slider, which already gives him value.  He walks about as many hitters as Marmol, however, so we'll see if his command has improved.

Maine was acquired before 2010 in the trade that sent former Cubs reliever Aaron Heilman to Arizona.  He has gotten tidbits of major league playing time over the past two years, but not enough to be judged upon.  In the minors he has a lifetime 3.34 ERA and recorded 12.6 K/9 last season at AAA Iowa.  He's ready for the major leagues, and I was hoping we'd see more of him last season.  I see him as a setup man as early as 2014 if not next year.

If nothing else, Dolis has a tremendous ability to keep the ball in the ballpark.  In 353.2 minor league innings, he's only allowed 14 homers.  This is good, but he's still going to allow runs if he continues to walk as many as he does in the minors.  If he makes the major league roster out of Spring Training, I'd call that a risky move.

Trever Miller

Speaking of risky moves, Castillo qualifies; he was a Rule 5 pick from the Phillies - meaning he must be on the major league roster all season or else he'll have to be returned the Phillies.  The Cubs' last Rule 5 pick was reliever David Patton in 2009, and that didn't turn out so well.  Patton hasn't pitched in the majors since.  Castillo has a 2.43 career ERA in the minors and exactly one strikeout for every inning pitched on average to go with an impressive 1.15 WHIP.  These are all nice, but they might mean more if Castillo had ever pitched above A ball.  Look for him to be used in blowout games only to begin with (which was also Patton's role).

The Cubs bullpen is a very young group now.  The only free agent acquisition, left-hander Trever Miller, is also the only man over 30 heading into the season.  Out of the pool of middle relief candidates, I believe Gaub, Maine, and Russell will become the primary three by midseason especially because of their strong command.  Dolis, Castillo, and Mateo are slightly risky for different reasons and won't all be on the major league roster all year.  Wood, Samardzija, and Marmol are strong pieces at the back.  Despite losing the big prize in Marshall, the bullpen remains a strength for the Cubs despite the uncertainty of the younger pieces.

  

Homestand Analysis: Colorado, San Francisco, Chicago (AL)

Record: 4-4
Final Record: 35-50

Against the Rockies, the Cubs finally got their first series sweep of the season.  Unfortunately, it was a one-game series, as in a makeup game for the rainout back in April.  This means the Cubs have yet to sweep a three-game series, and also haven't even won three in a row.  But play later in the week was encouraging for the Cubs.

Behind two homers each by Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena, the Cubs rolled past the Rockies 7-3.  The four homers would be the first four of 12 homers on the eight-game homestand.  Something was definitely in the water, as even backup Koyie Hill added one to the tally.  The annual weather swing has struck Wrigley, with that summer wind blowing out to the bleachers.

In the Colorado game, starter Matt Garza gave up a deep fly ball to left field by Carlos Gonzalez.  Alfonso Soriano went back to the track at his typical, lackadaisical pace.  Soriano eventually just pulled up and stopped, facing the wall, waiting for the ball to drop.  Garza, standing on the mound and thinking Soriano couldn't see the ball, raised his arms and said, "What are you doing?!"  Sure enough, the ball landed in the bleachers for a home run.  Garza, like most of the rest of the players, was shocked.  This evidence of the bandbox that Wrigley Field becomes in the summer has to come as a big surprise to the newcomers like Garza, who thought this ball would be a routine flyout.

The jetstream helped the Cubs for the rest of the homestand.  Ramirez hit six homers on it, en route to a well-deserved National League Player of the Week award.  But even that couldn't help the Cubs from looking absolutely dreadful in the doubleheader against the Giants on last Tuesday.  The Cubs were blown out by baseball's worst offense, reminiscent of their similar drubbing of the Cubs at Wrigley Field last year.  For the Cubs, Doug Davis and Rodrigo Lopez started the two games and the results are history.

Thankfully, the Cubs salvaged the last two games in impressive fashion.  A 1-0 ninth inning lead was blown by Carlos Marmol, but Ramirez singled home the winning run just a half-inning later on Wednesday night.

On Thursday afternoon, the Cubs put together one of their most complete wins since 2008.  Marcos Mateo pitched five incredible innings of relief after Carlos Zambrano's injury allowed him just one inning.  Ramirez erased a 1-0 deficit on a 95 mph fastball off Giants closer Brian Wilson.  Darwin Barney hit a huge clutch double in the 13th inning to tie the game at two after the Giants took the lead in the top half.  Geovany Soto stepped up and, two pitches later, ended the game with a three-run walk-off homer that was one of the most amazing moments the Cubs have had in the last decade.  The game was intense throughout and the Cubs trailed twice facing a loss, coming back both times.

In their millionth attempt to win a third game in a row, the Cubs were again denied, this time by the White Sox.  The Cubs didn't commit any errors on Friday in the series opener, according to the box score.  A mental error by manager Mike Quade cost the Cubs the lead in a tie game.  Quade has been sharply criticized this season for leaving in starters too long, and although much of this criticism is unfair, there's a case for this game to be examined.  Randy Wells gave up the two-run lead he had in the seventh, increasing his runs allowed total to four.  After Alex Rios reached base, Quade allowed Wells to pitch to Juan Pierre who lined a two-run triple to gave the Sox a lead they wouldn't give back.  Quade's mental error wasn't something major on his part, but I believe it was just the wrong decision.

A blown call at second base on a double play ball prevented the Cubs from tying Saturday's game at one, and the Cubs lost 1-0.  Garza threw a complete game despite losing, a sign I love to see.  Back in the Lou Piniella days, Garza would've been yanked after eight regardless of his low pitch count and the fact that his performance had earned him another inning.  Garza has been the beneficiary of some serious bad luck this season, and his value to the team has been far underrated thus far.

The Cubs finally got a win on Sunday, which salvages all Cubs fans everywhere from having to hear those Sox fans yappin' their yappers about how they swept us in our own park, yadda yadda yadda.  Thank God.  A Starlin Castro RBI triple and Ramirez two-run homer built a small lead, and although Kerry Wood allowed the bases loaded in the 8th, the Cubs escaped, avoiding the sweep.  The Sox now lead the Crosstown Series 12-6 since 2009.

On this homestand, Cubs pitchers really started throwing strikes.  In the case of Wells, Lopez, and Davis, who was released after his latest shellacking, this tactic didn't work so well.  In the case of Garza and Ryan Dempster, this worked very well.  Keeping a lower pitch count should allow the starters to go later in games, which is something the Cubs need.  Garza's performance on Saturday was incredible; but not as incredible as the fact that he lost.    

Road Trip Analysis: Cincinnati, Florida, Boston

Record: 3-4
Final Record: 20-25

The Cubs made their first trip to Cincinnati this season when they headed there last week for the first of the two scheduled two-game series on the Cubs schedule this season.  I'm not going to sugar coat it; the results of the trip to Cincinnati were catastrophic.  Two winnable games, which had we had won we would now be mere percentage points below .500, were thrown away by lack of effort and the worst defense you will see in the Major Leagues.

The first game was winnable by all means.  The Cubs had a 4-0 lead until the 6th, when Carlos Zambrano began his regularly scheduled blowup inning.  But he remained out there, and the Reds continued to hammer him while the bullpen struggled to get warm.  Zambrano had been carrying a three-hit shutout through five innings.  A walk, five hits, four earned runs with more to come on the bases with just one out later, Zambrano was relieved by Marcos Mateo.  But the damage was already done, as threw a wild pitch to score the go-ahead run and then a two-run homer to Jonny Gomes.  It wasn't just the ill-timed decision making that cost the Cubs this game; it was the lack of effort and the sense that they had given up.  Too many times I see this team sulking and just going down without a fight.  This is exactly what happened here, as if the Reds coming back was inevitable.

Just when it looked like it couldn't get any worse, of course, it did.  The Cubs came out the next night and the pitching staff, led by the starter that night Matt Garza, shut out the Reds.  In earned runs, at least.  The futile Cubs defense allowed the Reds to literally tie and win the game with seven runs, all of which were preventable by not throwing the ball away!  An error in the 4th by Carlos Pena was magnified after Garza hurriedly whipped the ball into the dugout throwing it home to get a runner.  That scored all three runs to tie the game.  Then in the 8th, the Cubs held a 5-3 lead, which Kerry Wood blew when he threw Ryan Hanigan's sacrifice bunt down the left field line trying to aggressively get the force at third.

I've only seen one other play like this one before, and it was in Game 5 of the 2006 World Series when Justin Verlander threw David Eckstein's bunt into left field trying to do the same thing.  But unlike that play, the ball this time got all the way down the line and to the wall.  Two more runs scored and the game was tied again.  Watching this play live, it's hard to describe the frustration that a Cubs fan feels when watching this stuff.  Dominique Wilkins of the Atlanta Hawks was known as 'The Human Highlight Reel' for his stunning ability to light up a highlight reel.  The Cubs as a team basically create the Human Incompetence Reel.

These two games should have been won.  They were key division games early in the season and the weather nullified much of the home field advantage.  This is a series the Cubs needed to win if they are going to get back into the NL Central mix.  They put together wins here and there this season, but they aren't going to win anything if they ever have another game like this (photo, left) or allow seven unearned runs.

After all of this, the Cubs headed to South Beach for their last series ever at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens.  Surprisingly, the Cubs won both games there in efficient fashion.  Not so surprisingly, it was their first sweep of the season, albeit a two-game series.  The Cubs did not commit an error in either game.

This led to the Cubs' first trip to Fenway Park in Boston since the 1918 World Series.  News of this World Series came up recently, when a report stemming from a document released by the Chicago History Museum suggested that the Cubs blew the Series for money, much like the White Sox did a year later.  I don't know the truth to this document, and it very well could just be the Sox player hassling the Cubs indirectly about something else.
 
Marlon Byrd was interviewed by Comcast SportsNet on Thursday night after the win against Florida and, when asked on his outlook for the Boston series, he replied, "Sweep Caroline."  I agree that the whole Sweet Caroline tradition at Fenway is really annoying, but hearing this stuff out of him gets tiring to be honest.  Last season, Byrd guaranteed the playoffs in May when the team was falling out of contention.  Well, you saw how that turned out.

The Cubs seemed overwhelmed by an American League offense in the first round on Friday night.  All three games were on national television, with WGN, FOX, and ESPN handling the games, respectively. After an uneventful 15-5 loss Friday, the Cubs bats woke up in the 8th inning of the game Saturday night, and the Red Sox collapsed which was reminiscent of the Cubs' defense collapses.  In a stunning change of momentum, the Cubs put up eight in the 8th and won 9-3.  As the Cubs closed out the bottom of the 9th, the huge contingent of Cubs fans that had traveled to Boston were chanting 'Let's Go Cubbies' at Fenway Park, an action pretty much unprecedented.  Every game at Fenway Park since April 2003 has been a sellout, so it's always full of Red Sox fans.  But Cubs fans took over Fenway late on Saturday.  Although that was nice, it was the only win in the series loss.

The Cubs were quietly shut down by knuckleballer Tim Wakefield on Sunday night.  Such a loss can be expected from the Cubs, as this is one of those games I notice where they just give up at a certain point.  The indifference of the group makes them less interesting to watch for sure, and this is the primary factor in the Cubs attendance struggles of this season.  But either way, this road trip was very up and down.  Mostly down, though, and the Red Sox-Cubs series generated nothing more than publicity for historical content, not a key turning point like it could have been.

Believe it or not, I have faith in the Cubs coming up in the next few weeks.  A nice, long homestand against three bad teams in the Mets, Pirates, and Astros is the perfect time to get into a groove, especially as the ivy will be grown, the weather will be nice, and the fans will be there.  And they'll need to get into a groove, because they then play 20 straight games against teams who had winning records last year.  But I have faith they will, because this team has hung in there despite slow starts from Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena, who are both hitting very well now.  Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner will be huge to this team, as the Cubs will no longer have to deal with immediate five-run deficits by way of James Russell every fifth day.  Hopefully, the Cubs will get lucky for once.