The 2011 All-Division Team, Part 4: NL Central

NL Central RF: Lance Berkman

Part 4 of 6: National League Central


Before turning to another awesome edition of the All-Division Team, I must make an announcement.  An apology, actually.  In my post comparing Prince Fielder and Yu Darvish, I incorrectly reported that the Blue Jays had won his bidding rights, which I believed to be true at the time of writing.  Although the Jays were the second-closest team to earning the rights, the Rangers actually won them.  I got some faulty information.  Won't happen again.  OK?  OK!

In the creation of the All-Division Team, however, selections are subjective.  Feel free to disagree and argue against any of the winners!

C Yadier Molina, STL 
'Yadi' has been a key contributor to both World Champion Cardinals teams from the past half-decade.  Since 2006, though, he has also developed into probably the best defensive catcher in the National League.  His knack for throwing to the bases after pitches to keep runners close proves very effective, and the team leader is still only 28.  At the plate Molina displays rare contact skills from a catcher, striking out under 50 times in 475 at-bats.  Batting .305 doesn't hurt either.  Competition: Geovany Soto (CHC), Michael McKenry (PIT), Humberto Quintero (HOU), Jonathan Lucroy (MIL), and Ramon Hernandez (CIN).

1B Prince Fielder, MIL
In his ever-pivotal walk year, the Prince put on a show.  Ever wonder how Ryan Braun really beat Matt Kemp in the MVP race, even though Kemp's stats were better?  Look no further.  Providing Braun with ultimate lineup protection, Fielder walked more than he struck out in 2011 (highly rare for a power hitter) and blasted 38 homers and 120 RBIs while slugging .566.  It's no wonder that a feared power hitter like Braun, who bats directly in front of Fielder, went the whole season being intentionally walked just twice.  If I were a pitcher, I wouldn't want to face the Prince either.  Competition: Albert Pujols (STL), Carlos Pena (CHC), Joey Votto (CIN), Lyle Overbay (PIT), and Brett Wallace (HOU).

2B Brandon Phillips, CIN
Who's the best shortstop in the NL Central?  Why of course, it's Dat Dude BP!  Brandon Phillips, who entertains fans on Twitter with the aforementioned handle, enjoyed one of his best seasons in a year that found him taking home his first Silver Slugger and his third Gold Glove after making his second All-Star appearance in July.  Besides continuing to be a 20-20 threat and a consistently clutch run producer, Phillips batted .300 for the first time in his career.  His positive leadership and attitude and vital traits to the Reds organization at the moment as its future is unclear.  Way to go, Brandon.  Competition: Skip Schumaker (STL), Neil Walker (PIT), Jose Altuve (HOU), Darwin Barney (CHC), and Rickie Weeks (MIL).

3B Aramis Ramirez, CHC
Ramirez had another slow start in the power department for the second year in a row.  This time, however, his swing was looking good and his mechanics were correct, he just wasn't clearing the wall for whatever reason.  The Chicago weather heated up around the same time his bat did, though, and he finished with 26 homers.  A rare breed of the low-strikeout slugger, Ramirez struck out only 69 times.  In his final season with the Cubs he cemented his place as one of the Cubs' great third basemen of all-time.  Competition: Scott Rolen (CIN), David Freese (STL), Casey McGehee (MIL), Pedro Alvarez (PIT), and Chris Johnson (HOU).

NL Central SS: Starlin Castro

SS Starlin Castro, CHC (2nd)
In one of the better breakout performances of 2011, this sophomore was the National League's hit king with 207 knocks.  Developing power began to show its potential as the season went on, and much improved baserunning skills showed the makings of a franchise player.  While defense is still an issue, it was better than it was a year before and strides of improvement can be expected for 2012.  With so much raw talent, there's no telling the ceiling on this guy's future.  If 2011 was just the beginning, it was pretty awesome.  Competition: Clint Barmes (HOU), Ryan Theriot (STL), Yuniesky Betancourt (MIL), Ronny Cedeno (PIT), and Paul Janish (CIN).

LF Ryan Braun, MIL
Steroids, anyone?  Even if Braun took performance-enhancing drugs during the 2011 season, it was exciting to watch while it lasted.  He took the middling Brewers to the NLCS and led the best team in the league for most of the season.  Braun put up above average numbers even for power hitters but perhaps more impressive was the .397 OBP, which meant runners on base for the batters behind him, most notably the Prince.  An outburst of speed at age 27 also had pitchers distracted.  Competition: Alfonso Soriano (CHC), Carlos Lee (HOU), Matt Holliday (STL), Ryan Ludwick (PIT), and Yonder Alonso (CIN).

NL Central CF: Andrew McCutchen

CF Andrew McCutchen, PIT (2nd)
McCutchen put it all together in his second full season.  The Pirates, who surprised the world with their contention into July, relied on McCutchen's 20-20 talent everyday.  His energy invigorated a dead Pittsburgh franchise and the winning ways will be back sometime soon as long as Andrew McCutchen is in center.  He revealed a newfound patience in 2011, a tool that eludes most young power-speed dual threat players.  Competition: Jason Bourgeois (HOU), Marlon Byrd (CHC), Nyjer Morgan (MIL), Drew Stubbs (CIN), and Jon Jay (STL).

RF Lance Berkman, STL
Say what?  I was thinking the Cardinals' signing of Berkman - to start in right field, no less - would be something along the lines of disastrous.  Apparently Berkman still has game though, and he proved it with an incredible .412 OBP and 31 homers, batting .301 overall.  His defense was okay in right field, but his offensive production far outweighed any criticism there.  Playing 145 games, he also walked 92 times, among the leaders in the NL.  This was simply one of the best offensive seasons in baseball, not just of right fielders or comeback veterans.

SP Matt Garza, CHC
The NL Central was a surprisingly weak division for starting pitchers.  Garza, though, was huge for his team.  In a Cubs rotation that essentially imploded with the loss of the #4 and #5 starters in the first week of the regular season, Garza provided stability and consistent outings all season long.  In return, he earned some of the worst run support in the NL.  Being a leader and ultimate team player, however, was not lost on this writer.  Competition: Yovani Gallardo (MIL), Chris Carpenter (STL), Kevin Correia (PIT), Bronson Arroyo (CIN), and Wandy Rodriguez (HOU).

CP John Axford, MIL
Any Cubs fan who watched the Cubs fail in Milwaukee last season got to see a load of this guy, but not for very long because the Cubs were little resistance to Axford's dominant ways.  He finished the season 46-for-48 in saves with a 1.95 ERA, striking out almost four for each batter he walked.  The Brewers can't ask for much more out of this 6-5 beast who seemingly came out of nowhere to become the shutdown closer on the NL's most complete team.  What a stud.  Competition: Carlos Marmol (CHC), Mark Melancon (HOU), Francisco Cordero (CIN), Jason Motte (STL), and Joel Hanrahan (PIT).


That does it for another installment of the MLB All-Division Team!  Next up is the AL West, followed by the NL West and finally a summary of the whole thing.  

Homestand Analysis: Houston, Milwaukee

Starlin Castro narrowly missed
getting his 200th hit at home.

Record: 4-2
Final Record: 69-87

Carlos Lee, despite all odds, has actually had a really great season.  Call me crazy, but the Astros former outfielder (now part-time outfielder and part-time first baseman) has a WAR this season of a full 7.0 points higher than last season!  For comparison, Ryan Braun's 7.2 WAR is 4th in the NL.  Unfortunately for Lee, however, his WAR last season was -2.5, making this season's at 4.5.  Still a very impressive turnaround, and the move to first base definitely hides his defensive weaknesses.  His defensive WAR this season is up 4.0, from -2.0 to 2.0.

Lee hit a solo homer in Friday's game at Wrigley Field for what should have been the only run off Matt Garza.  Even though it was only his 17th of the season, he has been very clutch and improved his walk rate to the point where his OBP improved nearly 50 points compared to last season.  With two outs and two strikes in the ninth on Lee with a 3-1 Cubs lead and a man on base, Lee tagged Garza, who was a strike away from a complete game win, for a two-run game-tying home run.  Marlon Byrd drove in the winning run with an infield single in the 12th.

Despite Lee's great season, the Astros have undoubtedly been the worst team in baseball.  Even though they haven't won the division since 2001, their franchise history reveals that even when bad, they've managed to stay mediocre and avoid disastrous, 100-loss seasons.  Only eight times in the franchise's 50-year history has the team finished with more than 90 losses.  But this seasons, all bets were off and the 'Stros were on pace to lose around 115 games even in May.  Although they definitely won't lose that many now, they lost their 100th on Saturday against the Cubs.  Rodrigo Lopez dominated and Bryan LaHair homered for the go-ahead run early but the lead stood 2-1 at the end.

Bleacher fans celebrate the last home win of the season.
Attendance was down for the fourth year in a row at
Wrigley, but hope is on the horizon this offseason.

Ryan Dempster had one of his typically awful first innings on Sunday but calmed down after that, giving up just those first three runs.  In the 8th, a three-run homer by Carlos Pena appeared to give the Cubs a 4-3 lead, but official review revealed the ball bounced off the yellow rope which divides the home run line and came back into the park, which is in play.  The tying (Starlin Castro) and go-ahead (Pena) runs had to stay at third and second, respectively.  Byrd failed once again with runners in scoring position (surprise, surprise) and that was the only chance the Cubs would have.  The Cubs took two of three, but should have swept.

Geovany Soto drove in all five runs on Monday night against Milwaukee on two homers and a single.  His first homer got onto Waveland Ave, making him the first Cub to reach Waveland this season.  Jerry Hairston Jr. homered off Casey Coleman for his only earned run, and Carlos Marmol performed his routine over-dramatization of a 'save' with a four-run lead by allowing Casey McGehee a 9th inning homer then putting on a few baserunners.  But with the tying run at the plate, the Cubs escaped, winning 5-2.

Mike Quade expects to be back next season, but the
new GM will probably have other (better?) ideas

Tuesday's game was a mess as los Cerveceros put up four on Randy Wells in the 4th inning.  Wells' late season hot streak is definitely over.  Castro was the only Cubs run in the 6th when he homered off Shaun Marcum, who was otherwise practically untouched.  Aramis Ramirez left early with an injury in what could be his last game at Wrigley as a Cub.

In the final home game of the season Wednesday afternoon, the Cubs passed 3,000,000 in attendance.  At 3,017,966 (an average of 37,258), the Cubs just barely passed the mark for the eighth year in a row.  Although 3,000,000 is a great feat achieved by a lucky bunch of larger-market teams, the extra empty seats at Wrigley was no secret.  Through April and May, it didn't look like the Cubs had any chance to get back to 3M, but consistent crowds of 39,000+ in the summer months pushed it through.

In 2008, the Yankees and Mets both had over 4,000,000 in attendance, but higher ticket prices and a recession saw no more 4M teams since.  There won't be any of them this season either; not even close.  The Phillies, MLB's attendance leader, would have to have around eight more home games to reach that.    This season, seven teams have reached the 3M mark and the Angels will by the end of the season.  The first seven in order are the Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Twins, Red Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals.

Matt Garza celebrates his complete game win
to close the 2011 home schedule.

D.J. LeMahieu doubled in two in that home finale as part of a 7-1 blowout.  Byrd hit a three-run homer and Garza got his complete game this time, ending the home season on a high note.  Castro, hot in the pursuit of 200 hits on the season as the NL's hits king, had three chances to get it but was intentionally walked, grounded out to short, and walked.  He got his 200th leading off Friday's game in St. Louis, so not to worry.

The last road trip of the season features St. Louis and San Diego.  The Cubs can really hurt St. Louis' playoff chances with even one win, which they got Friday night.  The Padres aren't playing for much, but the Cubs should be able to close out the season with a series win there.  It's hard to believe the Cubs are done at Wrigley in 2011, but Opening Day feels like years ago.  Watching baseball at Ye' Olde Wrigley was less fun than usual without an alcoholic aid...but big change is coming this offseason and it definitely won't get any worse than it was this season.  Financial flexibility will make us a better team next season, so I foresee games at Wrigley being a significantly hotter ticket next summer than this one.

Changing Landscape on the Central Front

The Milwaukee Brewers are 19-2 in their last 21 games and now hold a seven-game lead in the NL Central over the Cardinals, a 12.5-game lead on the Reds and 14-game lead on the Pirates, but the story was drastically different not even that long ago.  On July 24, all four teams were within four games of first place in what was MLB's tightest division.  Now, however, the trade deadline seems to have separated the leaders significantly.

The Brewers, who acquired Francisco Rodriguez most notably before the deadline, are the obvious favorites to win the division now.  The Cardinals swung Colby Rasmus to the Blue Jays in a three-way trade that landed them Edwin Jackson.  In my opinion, this was a very bad move.  While Jackson could be  great rotation depth for a team that has lacked it this season and seasons past, Rasmus was too good to be traded, whether he gets along with manager Tony La Russa or not.  The Cards also acquired Rafael Furcal as a rental to start over Ryan Theriot.  The Pirates released Lyle Overbay after he was replaced by Derrek Lee and acquired Ryan Ludwick in two moves that appear to have backfired as they have dropped out of contention.  The Reds did pretty much nothing at the deadline and have dropped out of contention.  

What does all this mean?  It means that the Brewers should be the only team of the four to make the playoffs.  But if the Brewers don't make it far into the playoffs this season, they might not get another chance.  In case you haven't heard, Prince Fielder will be a free agent after this season, and the Brewers have little to no chance of resigning him.  According to sabermetrics, teammate Ryan Braun is actually slightly more valuable now to the Brewers than Fielder is (since 2007, Braun's 24.8 WAR beats Fielder's 19.1).  But sabermetrics, or any kind of metrics for that matter, can't measure clubhouse influence.  Fielder has played in Milwaukee since 2005 (two years before Braun arrived) and is the heart of soul of an underrated Brewers team.  Fielder showed real promise as a rookie in 2006, then broke out in 2007 with 50 homers, nearly winning MVP and putting his team in contention most of the season.  He nearly single-handedly woke up the Brewers from their early-to-mid-2000s slumber, and his loss to this team would be huge.

Just seven hours down the road is St. Louis, home of Albert Pujols and the Cardinals.  Pujols' WAR since 2007 is 38.0, making Braun and Fielder look mediocre.  Pujols is the longest-tenured player on the Cardinals and probably has been the best player in baseball since entering the league in 2001.  His consistent power and plate discipline for an entire decade has gone untouched until this year, when he landed on the DL in June.  But Pujols is still the best player on the team and one of the best in the league, and his upcoming free agency is a bigger story than Fielder's.  

Although the Cardinals have a better chance to sign Pujols than the Brewers do to sign Fielder, something tells me that Pujols has not been totally pleased with the loyalty shown to him by his front office in recent years.  The exclusive free agent period open for resigning players is not very long after the World Series, and I highly doubt a deal with any team will be done before he's officially open on the market.

The future of the NL Central will be dictated to a certain extent by where Pujols and Fielder land.  If they both walk in free agency, their teams will take a big hit and the power balance in the division will shift.  But the question is, who will be ready to take it?  The Cardinals will still have Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman to control the power department, while the Brewers will still have Ryan Braun and Casey McGehee, but the key cog would be missing on both teams.

Meanwhile, the rest of the division has an opportunity here.  The Astros don't have any talent ready to win, so they won't be taking advantage.  The Pirates got too many unexpected seasons from their pitchers to expect to compete again next year, unless they get some major help from the minors or free agency.  The Reds were supposed to be much better this year behind the power duo of reigning MVP Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.  If they could just add some pitching, they could take the division back next season.  That leaves just the Cubs, who aren't expected to contend next season but could if they sign Fielder or Pujols and add the correct mix of youngsters to the group.

The bottom line is that with Fielder and Pujols possibly on the move this fall, the NL Central, baseball's unfairest division, will be slightly evened out, at least for a couple years.   

              

Don't Be Sori

Alfonso Soriano's play has been very surprising and borderline inspirational this season.  In Arizona earlier tonight, Soriano blasted home runs #8 and #9 to left-center and right-center, respectively.  While Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney have been great offensively just hitting and getting on base, Soriano has been the only one so far in the power department to show up.  Geovany Soto, Carlos Pena, and Aramis Ramirez, who were probably expected to hit around 75 homers this season combined, have so far combined for three.  Soriano, on the other hand, has been great.  Except for the fact that, as usual, he hasn't been good in the clutch.  Soriano is batting .174 with runners in scoring position so far with only one homer in that circumstance.  With the bases empty, Soriano is hitting .316.  But for Soriano, the one thing that will keep his power in respectable numbers is a simple, yet elusive, characteristic.  Swagger.

Swagger is a mood.  Swagger is a way of life, and Soriano relies on it to do well.  When on one of his famous hot streaks that haven't really come around lately until this month, Soriano shows off his swagger by showing off at the plate after a home run.  Whether it's a little hop or its just a quick walk before the slow jog, one can watch on TV as Soriano shows his swag, if he has it.  Because Soriano is a hitter that goes on hot and cold streaks so much, he is susceptible to confidence swings and questionable effort.  Often times sans swagger, like all of last year, he would just give up some at-bats and chase the slider in the dirt low and away that everyone knows is coming.  But now, standing alone in second on the NL home run leaderboard to only Ryan Braun's 10, Soriano is fighting and working every at-bat.  If we can get this Soriano for an entire year, like the Nationals did in 2006, the haters will be forced to lay off him because he could show us finally what he is still capable of.