Homestand Analysis: Houston, Milwaukee

Starlin Castro narrowly missed
getting his 200th hit at home.

Record: 4-2
Final Record: 69-87

Carlos Lee, despite all odds, has actually had a really great season.  Call me crazy, but the Astros former outfielder (now part-time outfielder and part-time first baseman) has a WAR this season of a full 7.0 points higher than last season!  For comparison, Ryan Braun's 7.2 WAR is 4th in the NL.  Unfortunately for Lee, however, his WAR last season was -2.5, making this season's at 4.5.  Still a very impressive turnaround, and the move to first base definitely hides his defensive weaknesses.  His defensive WAR this season is up 4.0, from -2.0 to 2.0.

Lee hit a solo homer in Friday's game at Wrigley Field for what should have been the only run off Matt Garza.  Even though it was only his 17th of the season, he has been very clutch and improved his walk rate to the point where his OBP improved nearly 50 points compared to last season.  With two outs and two strikes in the ninth on Lee with a 3-1 Cubs lead and a man on base, Lee tagged Garza, who was a strike away from a complete game win, for a two-run game-tying home run.  Marlon Byrd drove in the winning run with an infield single in the 12th.

Despite Lee's great season, the Astros have undoubtedly been the worst team in baseball.  Even though they haven't won the division since 2001, their franchise history reveals that even when bad, they've managed to stay mediocre and avoid disastrous, 100-loss seasons.  Only eight times in the franchise's 50-year history has the team finished with more than 90 losses.  But this seasons, all bets were off and the 'Stros were on pace to lose around 115 games even in May.  Although they definitely won't lose that many now, they lost their 100th on Saturday against the Cubs.  Rodrigo Lopez dominated and Bryan LaHair homered for the go-ahead run early but the lead stood 2-1 at the end.

Bleacher fans celebrate the last home win of the season.
Attendance was down for the fourth year in a row at
Wrigley, but hope is on the horizon this offseason.

Ryan Dempster had one of his typically awful first innings on Sunday but calmed down after that, giving up just those first three runs.  In the 8th, a three-run homer by Carlos Pena appeared to give the Cubs a 4-3 lead, but official review revealed the ball bounced off the yellow rope which divides the home run line and came back into the park, which is in play.  The tying (Starlin Castro) and go-ahead (Pena) runs had to stay at third and second, respectively.  Byrd failed once again with runners in scoring position (surprise, surprise) and that was the only chance the Cubs would have.  The Cubs took two of three, but should have swept.

Geovany Soto drove in all five runs on Monday night against Milwaukee on two homers and a single.  His first homer got onto Waveland Ave, making him the first Cub to reach Waveland this season.  Jerry Hairston Jr. homered off Casey Coleman for his only earned run, and Carlos Marmol performed his routine over-dramatization of a 'save' with a four-run lead by allowing Casey McGehee a 9th inning homer then putting on a few baserunners.  But with the tying run at the plate, the Cubs escaped, winning 5-2.

Mike Quade expects to be back next season, but the
new GM will probably have other (better?) ideas

Tuesday's game was a mess as los Cerveceros put up four on Randy Wells in the 4th inning.  Wells' late season hot streak is definitely over.  Castro was the only Cubs run in the 6th when he homered off Shaun Marcum, who was otherwise practically untouched.  Aramis Ramirez left early with an injury in what could be his last game at Wrigley as a Cub.

In the final home game of the season Wednesday afternoon, the Cubs passed 3,000,000 in attendance.  At 3,017,966 (an average of 37,258), the Cubs just barely passed the mark for the eighth year in a row.  Although 3,000,000 is a great feat achieved by a lucky bunch of larger-market teams, the extra empty seats at Wrigley was no secret.  Through April and May, it didn't look like the Cubs had any chance to get back to 3M, but consistent crowds of 39,000+ in the summer months pushed it through.

In 2008, the Yankees and Mets both had over 4,000,000 in attendance, but higher ticket prices and a recession saw no more 4M teams since.  There won't be any of them this season either; not even close.  The Phillies, MLB's attendance leader, would have to have around eight more home games to reach that.    This season, seven teams have reached the 3M mark and the Angels will by the end of the season.  The first seven in order are the Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Twins, Red Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals.

Matt Garza celebrates his complete game win
to close the 2011 home schedule.

D.J. LeMahieu doubled in two in that home finale as part of a 7-1 blowout.  Byrd hit a three-run homer and Garza got his complete game this time, ending the home season on a high note.  Castro, hot in the pursuit of 200 hits on the season as the NL's hits king, had three chances to get it but was intentionally walked, grounded out to short, and walked.  He got his 200th leading off Friday's game in St. Louis, so not to worry.

The last road trip of the season features St. Louis and San Diego.  The Cubs can really hurt St. Louis' playoff chances with even one win, which they got Friday night.  The Padres aren't playing for much, but the Cubs should be able to close out the season with a series win there.  It's hard to believe the Cubs are done at Wrigley in 2011, but Opening Day feels like years ago.  Watching baseball at Ye' Olde Wrigley was less fun than usual without an alcoholic aid...but big change is coming this offseason and it definitely won't get any worse than it was this season.  Financial flexibility will make us a better team next season, so I foresee games at Wrigley being a significantly hotter ticket next summer than this one.

Road Trip Wrapup: Pittsburgh, Houston, Milwaukee

Final Record: 27-33
Trip Record: 3-6
Games Behind First: 7.5

It could be a long summer for these Cubs.  The Cubs, who can't live up to winning expectations, haven't been able to beat even the bad teams the last two years.  This road trip should have swung momentum in the opposite way it actually did, and with a 6-3 or 7-2 record the Cubs would be pumped to play the Sox to resume the interleague dockett.  But here we are again, asking questions about how guys like Felipe Paulino can overwhelm the Cubs offense for the majority of a game. 

The first two games in Pittsburgh were frustrating, but the way the Cubs played gave me an indication that they brought the winning attitude with their luggage this time.  The lead on Monday, May 31 slipped off a rare bad outing by Sean Marshall, including a Garrett Jones homer.  Hopefully Cub fans had something nice to do on this Memorial Day than allow themselves get stressed by this loss.  The next one, however, on the next night, was nothing short of heartbreaking for me.  It was one of the hardest losses to take this year, because of how fundamentally well the Cubs had been playing all evening.  Like mentioned in an earlier post, it was Neil Walker who drove the Ted Lilly pitch out for a huge go-ahead homer in the bottom of the 8th, and before the Cubs could react it was game over.  The next game was postponed, but on Monday the next week Carlos Silva squeaked out a quiet 6-1 win.

The Houston series was pathetic.  I don't care to recap Friday except that Felipe Paulino 'dealing.'  The Astros plastered together three runs, and that's it.  Aramis Ramirez and Tyler Colvin both homered Saturday night and the Cubs responded well pouring on eight runs.  Ryan Dempster went a strong 6.1 IP with 7 K, which made me think we were going to turn it around on the trip.  But no, as Carlos Lee hit a two-run homer in a three run first inning off Randy Wells on Sunday.  The Cubs left town having lost two of three. 

After playing the makeup game Monday in Pittsburgh, the Cubs headed to Miller Park where they are already 3-0 in 2010.  Two of the three games there were Pittsburgh-esque heartbreaking, as the Cubs fell in the opener because of a two blown leads in as many innings.  There were no runs until a Cubs rally in the 8th, but a Corey Hart homer gave that lead away on one pitch.  In the ninth, the Cubs put up another run only to put men on and Carlos Marmol surrended a go-ahead, walk off two run single to Casey McGehee.  ESPN carried Wednesday's game, and the inconsitent Cubs offense put up nine including five homers coming from three hitters.  The 9-4 win set the stage for a disaster Thursday.  Xavier Nady hit a two-run homer earlier in the game, but blew it anyway in the bottom of the 10th.  In a 4-4 game, Craig Counsell sacrificed Carlos Gomez to second with none out, but Gomez just kept going all the way to third.  Nady made a dumb throw, a very ill-advised action in youth baseball, and the throw got away, scoring Gomez and ending the game.  The whole thing happened so fast, it was unbelievable.  Here's my question: Nady was at first because Derrek Lee had the day off.  Understandable.  But the fact that Lee is a three-time gold glover who hates days off and was ready to go merits the question of why wasn't Lee, in a big extra inning game, inserted for defensive purposes over a perennial DH in Nady?

The Cubs really screwed up this time.  They played great baseball in seven of nine games, and easily could have won those seven.  If the Cubs can't beat these teams, then who can they?