Cubs Trade Tyler Colvin to Rockies; Acquire Ian Stewart

New Cubs third baseman Ian Stewart

The Cubs are shuffling the outfield deck for the second time in a week.  On Thursday afternoon, just as the world was in the midst of Albert Pujols shock, the Cubs and Rox closed the Winter Meetings with a deal that sends Colvin and infielder D.J. LeMahieu to Colorado for Stewart and right-handed reliever Casey Weathers.  The deal comes approximately a week after the Cubs made their first major move of the offseason in signing David DeJesus who is now undoubtedly going to be the everyday right fielder.

At first I was very skeptical of this trade, and I sure didn't expect Colvin to be traded out of our surplus of outfielders.  Before this trade, there were four outfielders that demanded regular playing time: Colvin, Tony Campana, Marlon Byrd, and Alfonso Soriano.  That also doesn't include infrequent visits from Blake DeWitt and prospects soon to arrive like Brett Jackson, who will demand playing time upon arrival.  However, it was Colvin who was dumped.

Ian Stewart has been the Rockies third baseman for about four years, but injuries derailed his 2011 season. At his best in 2009 and 2010, Stewart hit 25 and 18 home runs, respectively, but for a very low average.  He does strikeout plenty but also walks a decent amount, raising his OBP around 80 points higher than his batting average.  He hit only .156 in his 122 at-bats last season without a home run, very similar to Colvin's demise.

Which player will recover more effectively?  I couldn't answer this question, and neither could my quick research, so I turned to the media of all places for some reaction.  MLB Network's Clubhouse Confidential show, which examines the offseason and players via sabermetrics, declared Stewart the better player and more likely to rebound because of his better career walk rate in the minors (.373 career minors OBP compared to Colvin's .315).

The Cubs' top draft pick in 2006, Tyler Colvin's Cubs
career is finished after just 221 games.

Now that we've got that figured out, let's get to the bottom of the minor pieces.  LeMahieu, still only 23, took only two years from being drafted in 2009 to reach the Majors in 2011.  He didn't show much in his brief trial, but his minor league records are more notable.  A .317 career hitter in the minors, his 11% strikeout rate opened plenty of eyes.  Even though he has been a great contact hitter in the minors, that often changes quickly in the Majors against power pitchers never faced before.  LeMahieu was projected to get some playing time at third or around the infield in 2012, but overall, not a big loss.

Weathers, on the other hand, could be a decent pickup for the Cubs.  The 27-year-old Weathers, who has never played under the big league lights before, had major control issues in 2011 at AA Tulsa for the first time in his professional career, walking the same amount he struck out.  He has terrific strikeout stuff, but continued control problems will not make him an asset at all.  The Cubs will just have to hope it was a fluke.  In my initial reaction to the trade, I figured Weathers would stay in AA and AAA for most of the season.  Apparently he's being invited to big league camp in Arizona and will compete for a bullpen spot on the Major League team.  We'll see what happens.

Overall, this is a good trade.  Theo & Co. like guys with a high OBP, and they got another one here.  Stewart plays a decent defensive third base (better than Aramis Ramirez), and his home run balls will reach Sheffield on multiple occasions.  When he really squares up an inside fastball and gulfs a home run, his swing looks pretty awesome.  The loss of LeMahieu isn't anything to stress about, and Weathers has lots of upside.  So we've got that goin' for us, which is nice.

Homestand Analysis: Houston, Milwaukee

Starlin Castro narrowly missed
getting his 200th hit at home.

Record: 4-2
Final Record: 69-87

Carlos Lee, despite all odds, has actually had a really great season.  Call me crazy, but the Astros former outfielder (now part-time outfielder and part-time first baseman) has a WAR this season of a full 7.0 points higher than last season!  For comparison, Ryan Braun's 7.2 WAR is 4th in the NL.  Unfortunately for Lee, however, his WAR last season was -2.5, making this season's at 4.5.  Still a very impressive turnaround, and the move to first base definitely hides his defensive weaknesses.  His defensive WAR this season is up 4.0, from -2.0 to 2.0.

Lee hit a solo homer in Friday's game at Wrigley Field for what should have been the only run off Matt Garza.  Even though it was only his 17th of the season, he has been very clutch and improved his walk rate to the point where his OBP improved nearly 50 points compared to last season.  With two outs and two strikes in the ninth on Lee with a 3-1 Cubs lead and a man on base, Lee tagged Garza, who was a strike away from a complete game win, for a two-run game-tying home run.  Marlon Byrd drove in the winning run with an infield single in the 12th.

Despite Lee's great season, the Astros have undoubtedly been the worst team in baseball.  Even though they haven't won the division since 2001, their franchise history reveals that even when bad, they've managed to stay mediocre and avoid disastrous, 100-loss seasons.  Only eight times in the franchise's 50-year history has the team finished with more than 90 losses.  But this seasons, all bets were off and the 'Stros were on pace to lose around 115 games even in May.  Although they definitely won't lose that many now, they lost their 100th on Saturday against the Cubs.  Rodrigo Lopez dominated and Bryan LaHair homered for the go-ahead run early but the lead stood 2-1 at the end.

Bleacher fans celebrate the last home win of the season.
Attendance was down for the fourth year in a row at
Wrigley, but hope is on the horizon this offseason.

Ryan Dempster had one of his typically awful first innings on Sunday but calmed down after that, giving up just those first three runs.  In the 8th, a three-run homer by Carlos Pena appeared to give the Cubs a 4-3 lead, but official review revealed the ball bounced off the yellow rope which divides the home run line and came back into the park, which is in play.  The tying (Starlin Castro) and go-ahead (Pena) runs had to stay at third and second, respectively.  Byrd failed once again with runners in scoring position (surprise, surprise) and that was the only chance the Cubs would have.  The Cubs took two of three, but should have swept.

Geovany Soto drove in all five runs on Monday night against Milwaukee on two homers and a single.  His first homer got onto Waveland Ave, making him the first Cub to reach Waveland this season.  Jerry Hairston Jr. homered off Casey Coleman for his only earned run, and Carlos Marmol performed his routine over-dramatization of a 'save' with a four-run lead by allowing Casey McGehee a 9th inning homer then putting on a few baserunners.  But with the tying run at the plate, the Cubs escaped, winning 5-2.

Mike Quade expects to be back next season, but the
new GM will probably have other (better?) ideas

Tuesday's game was a mess as los Cerveceros put up four on Randy Wells in the 4th inning.  Wells' late season hot streak is definitely over.  Castro was the only Cubs run in the 6th when he homered off Shaun Marcum, who was otherwise practically untouched.  Aramis Ramirez left early with an injury in what could be his last game at Wrigley as a Cub.

In the final home game of the season Wednesday afternoon, the Cubs passed 3,000,000 in attendance.  At 3,017,966 (an average of 37,258), the Cubs just barely passed the mark for the eighth year in a row.  Although 3,000,000 is a great feat achieved by a lucky bunch of larger-market teams, the extra empty seats at Wrigley was no secret.  Through April and May, it didn't look like the Cubs had any chance to get back to 3M, but consistent crowds of 39,000+ in the summer months pushed it through.

In 2008, the Yankees and Mets both had over 4,000,000 in attendance, but higher ticket prices and a recession saw no more 4M teams since.  There won't be any of them this season either; not even close.  The Phillies, MLB's attendance leader, would have to have around eight more home games to reach that.    This season, seven teams have reached the 3M mark and the Angels will by the end of the season.  The first seven in order are the Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Twins, Red Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals.

Matt Garza celebrates his complete game win
to close the 2011 home schedule.

D.J. LeMahieu doubled in two in that home finale as part of a 7-1 blowout.  Byrd hit a three-run homer and Garza got his complete game this time, ending the home season on a high note.  Castro, hot in the pursuit of 200 hits on the season as the NL's hits king, had three chances to get it but was intentionally walked, grounded out to short, and walked.  He got his 200th leading off Friday's game in St. Louis, so not to worry.

The last road trip of the season features St. Louis and San Diego.  The Cubs can really hurt St. Louis' playoff chances with even one win, which they got Friday night.  The Padres aren't playing for much, but the Cubs should be able to close out the season with a series win there.  It's hard to believe the Cubs are done at Wrigley in 2011, but Opening Day feels like years ago.  Watching baseball at Ye' Olde Wrigley was less fun than usual without an alcoholic aid...but big change is coming this offseason and it definitely won't get any worse than it was this season.  Financial flexibility will make us a better team next season, so I foresee games at Wrigley being a significantly hotter ticket next summer than this one.