2012 Cubs Preview: Bullpen

Kerry Wood

Young unit loses prime setup man but remains strong with hard-throwing core


The 2011 Cubs were simply not a good team at 71 wins, 91 losses.  The bullpen, however, was undoubtedly a team strength.  I believe that if the closer had been as good as he had for his entire career, this bullpen would have rivaled those of top contending teams.

That closer, of course, is the nasty Carlos Marmol, 29.  The side-arming right-hander pitched to a 2.86 ERA 61 saves, a 12.9 K/9 ratio, a ridiculous 4.8 H/9 ratio, but a 5.6 BB/9 ratio between 2008-10.  In 2011, however, he worsened to a 4.01 ERA with 10 blown saves, most in the National League.  In six of those blown saves, he also let up at least another run to lose the game.  He has the wildest delivery this side of Francisco Rodriguez but doesn't control it well as K-Rod does.

Carlos Marmol

Marmol throws far too many balls, especially to begin an at-bat.  It seems he always falls behind 2-0 before coming back with a slider over the middle of the plate for strike one.  The issues got so bad last season that he began throwing a cutter (or 'soft' slider) - without telling any coaches.  It didn't work, and manager Dale Sveum has already told him to knock it off.  No, Carlos, you're not Mariano Rivera.  Sorry, but the cutter just isn't that easy.  Marmol was given the ball with a lead to save 44 times last season, and he saved 34 of them.  Hypothetically, if given the same amount of chances this year, saving 40 should be a good goal for him.  It's certainly a challenge, but within his talent level.

Most of those leads handed over to Marmol had something to do with former setup man Sean Marshall.  Marshall, who, like Marmol, began his major league career as an unsuccessful starter, confirmed his status as one of the elite setup men in the game last year with a 2.26 ERA and 4.65 K/BB ratio.  Marshall was flipped to Cincinnati when his stock price was highest, meaning the primary setup man duties fall to Jeff Samardzija.

Jeff Samardzija

I talked briefly about Samardzija in the last post for the rotation, where he is being considered as the longest of longshots.  Truth be told, however, his loss would be a big blow to this 'pen.  His 2.97 ERA showed that he could be a good primary middle reliever, and now with Marshall's departure, he's ready for the next step.  He works lefties tough on the inside part of the plate.  Despite having the matchup advantage, they hit only .208 against the tall former Notre Dame wide receiver.  Righties didn't do any better, hitting .195 off him.  Too many batters got on base via the base on balls (50 of them, to be exact) but he still held hitters to a .220 average with men on base, which is hard to do considering the pressure on the pitcher at that point.  Some want to call his season a fluke, but I hope those factors of domination show that he's a changed pitcher and not just a lucky son-of-a-gun.

I haven't heard anyone call Kerry Wood's 2011 a fluke.  The 34-year-old pitched to a very respectable 3.35 ERA last season with 57 strikeouts in 51 innings.  As always, Wood brought the heat on a daily basis with that nasty curveball.  Wood is guaranteed a job with the Cubs for as long he likes, whether that means in the 'pen or front office.  For this season, however, he's a great option as a middle relief/setup man.

James Russell

Other primary names that will be in the mix include 26-year-old James Russell, 27-year-old Marcos Mateo, 26-year-old John Gaub, 24-year-old Rafael Dolis, 23-year-old Lendy Castillo and 27-year-old Scott Maine.  Clearly it's a very young group, but some have more potential than others.  Russell was tried in the rotation last year during the grand scramble for starting pitching, and he imploded.  Put back into middle relief though, he performed well.  I really like this kid's over-the-top delivery, it's very smooth and fundamentally correct; I hope to see him do well in this role this season.

Mateo is an less developed strikeout pitcher with a good fastball and slider.  He needs to work on his command to prove he can stay in the majors, but I like his raw stuff as it is right now.

John Gaub

Gaub throws some serious, serious heat.  In about 212 career minor league innings, he has struck out 298.  He made his major league debut last season and I believe will play a big role this year.  He's a lefty with a power slider, which already gives him value.  He walks about as many hitters as Marmol, however, so we'll see if his command has improved.

Maine was acquired before 2010 in the trade that sent former Cubs reliever Aaron Heilman to Arizona.  He has gotten tidbits of major league playing time over the past two years, but not enough to be judged upon.  In the minors he has a lifetime 3.34 ERA and recorded 12.6 K/9 last season at AAA Iowa.  He's ready for the major leagues, and I was hoping we'd see more of him last season.  I see him as a setup man as early as 2014 if not next year.

If nothing else, Dolis has a tremendous ability to keep the ball in the ballpark.  In 353.2 minor league innings, he's only allowed 14 homers.  This is good, but he's still going to allow runs if he continues to walk as many as he does in the minors.  If he makes the major league roster out of Spring Training, I'd call that a risky move.

Trever Miller

Speaking of risky moves, Castillo qualifies; he was a Rule 5 pick from the Phillies - meaning he must be on the major league roster all season or else he'll have to be returned the Phillies.  The Cubs' last Rule 5 pick was reliever David Patton in 2009, and that didn't turn out so well.  Patton hasn't pitched in the majors since.  Castillo has a 2.43 career ERA in the minors and exactly one strikeout for every inning pitched on average to go with an impressive 1.15 WHIP.  These are all nice, but they might mean more if Castillo had ever pitched above A ball.  Look for him to be used in blowout games only to begin with (which was also Patton's role).

The Cubs bullpen is a very young group now.  The only free agent acquisition, left-hander Trever Miller, is also the only man over 30 heading into the season.  Out of the pool of middle relief candidates, I believe Gaub, Maine, and Russell will become the primary three by midseason especially because of their strong command.  Dolis, Castillo, and Mateo are slightly risky for different reasons and won't all be on the major league roster all year.  Wood, Samardzija, and Marmol are strong pieces at the back.  Despite losing the big prize in Marshall, the bullpen remains a strength for the Cubs despite the uncertainty of the younger pieces.

  

Road Trip Analysis: New York, Cincinnati

Cubs steal emotional finale in New York on 9/11's 10th anniversary

Record: 3-4
Final Record: 65-85

Ever since the Mets traded Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers in July, the search has been on for the closer of the future.  Hard-throwing Bobby Parnell couldn't handle the job in his trial, so Manny Acosta got the honors on Friday night with a 4-3 lead in the ninth.  Darwin Barney's RBI single gave Acosta a blown save and a wide round of boos from the Citi Field crowd, but the offense redeemed him in the bottom of the inning on Justin Turner's walk-off double.

Late in the game Saturday, the Mets looked to win another tight game.  Jason Bay came through with a two-out RBI single to give the Mets a 4-3 lead in the eighth.  After Acosta's blown chance the night before, the Mets staff came crawling back to Parnell to save the next game.  Parnell blew yet another lead, as the Cubs continued their recent comeback trend.  Aramis Ramirez's two-run single to give the Cubs a deciding 5-4 lead came on a 98 mph fastball from Parnell to knot the series at one.

It's not everyday that ESPN shows a Major League Baseball game, in its primetime Sunday night slot no less, between two teams that are a combined 45.5 games out in their respective divisions.  For the Cubs, that's all Sunday night's game in New York was.  A game.  For the Mets, it was much more.  It was practically a mourning, an emotional anniversary of a terrorist attack in their community.  Many fans in the stands were personally connected to those that died on 9/11, and a big pregame ceremony was held in remembrance.  I thought the game would be sold out for sure, and it sure as hell would've made a greater statement if it was.  But apparently much of Queens didn't get the memo, as only 33,502 came to watch another tight game.

Tyler Colvin had three RBIs by the fifth inning when the Cubs held a 4-1 lead, but the Mets started chipping away on Matt Garza, eventually tying it in the eighth off Jeff Samardzija.  It would remain tied until the 11th, when rookie Josh Stinson gave up the lead followed by a two-run double each for Alfonso Soriano and Barney off Ryota Igarashi.  A Geovany Soto sac fly made it 10-4 and this insurmountable lead won the game and series for the Cubs.

Rodrigo Lopez was far from perfect in his start at Cincinnati Monday night.  Luckily, he didn't have to be perfect, as the Cubs offense put up 12 runs in support.  Lopez, who has always had problems with allowing home runs, gave up a 502-foot moon shot over the right field bleachers and into the Ohio River to Juan Francisco - the fifth homer of his Major League career.  But Jeff Baker, Starlin Castro, and Ramirez would all homer later as a washed up Dontrelle Willis really struggled.  The 12-8 win gave the Cubs 22 runs in two games.

Unfortunately, the first game of this four-game series in Cincy was the only winner for the Cubs.  In his last start of the year before being shut down by an innings limit, Mike Leake shut down the offense and narrowly outdueled Ryan Dempster in a 2-1 win.  Brandon Phillips, aka 'Dat Dude BP' (his nickname and twitter account), homered in the first.

Ramon Hernandez hit a three-run homer off starter Casey Coleman to open the scoring Wednesday night and the Reds never looked back in a blowout win.  Reds starter Johnny Cueto had to leave early with an injury, but that did nothing to awake the suddenly silent Cubs bats.

Just as suddenly as they fell silent, the bats woke up in the first inning of the series finale.  Marlon Byrd and Carlos Pena both hit two-run homers in the first inning off Homer Bailey.   Then it fell silent once again until the ninth, when the 4-0 lead had turned into a 6-4 deficit.  An exciting rally ensued; Barney drove in his second ninth inning game-tying run of the road trip.  As is typical, the Cubs stranded runners in the 10th and 11th innings before James Russell curiously blew two lefty-on-lefty matchups.  Joey Votto began the 11th with a double and Jay Bruce ended it with a walk-off two-run homer.

I don't know you about you, but this losing stuff ain't sittin' right.  Still.  Many fellow Cubs fans I know have regressed into that 'I've moved on' phase recently, but many times I can call them out on this bluff.  The best hope for a winner right now in Chicago may be the Bears, but losing still hurts.

Including wins in the first two games against the Astros, the Cubs need to go at least 8-2 to match last season's record.  They have clinched a losing season, but can avoid losing 90 games by going at least 6-4.          

Road Trip Analysis: Cincinnati, Florida, Boston

Record: 3-4
Final Record: 20-25

The Cubs made their first trip to Cincinnati this season when they headed there last week for the first of the two scheduled two-game series on the Cubs schedule this season.  I'm not going to sugar coat it; the results of the trip to Cincinnati were catastrophic.  Two winnable games, which had we had won we would now be mere percentage points below .500, were thrown away by lack of effort and the worst defense you will see in the Major Leagues.

The first game was winnable by all means.  The Cubs had a 4-0 lead until the 6th, when Carlos Zambrano began his regularly scheduled blowup inning.  But he remained out there, and the Reds continued to hammer him while the bullpen struggled to get warm.  Zambrano had been carrying a three-hit shutout through five innings.  A walk, five hits, four earned runs with more to come on the bases with just one out later, Zambrano was relieved by Marcos Mateo.  But the damage was already done, as threw a wild pitch to score the go-ahead run and then a two-run homer to Jonny Gomes.  It wasn't just the ill-timed decision making that cost the Cubs this game; it was the lack of effort and the sense that they had given up.  Too many times I see this team sulking and just going down without a fight.  This is exactly what happened here, as if the Reds coming back was inevitable.

Just when it looked like it couldn't get any worse, of course, it did.  The Cubs came out the next night and the pitching staff, led by the starter that night Matt Garza, shut out the Reds.  In earned runs, at least.  The futile Cubs defense allowed the Reds to literally tie and win the game with seven runs, all of which were preventable by not throwing the ball away!  An error in the 4th by Carlos Pena was magnified after Garza hurriedly whipped the ball into the dugout throwing it home to get a runner.  That scored all three runs to tie the game.  Then in the 8th, the Cubs held a 5-3 lead, which Kerry Wood blew when he threw Ryan Hanigan's sacrifice bunt down the left field line trying to aggressively get the force at third.

I've only seen one other play like this one before, and it was in Game 5 of the 2006 World Series when Justin Verlander threw David Eckstein's bunt into left field trying to do the same thing.  But unlike that play, the ball this time got all the way down the line and to the wall.  Two more runs scored and the game was tied again.  Watching this play live, it's hard to describe the frustration that a Cubs fan feels when watching this stuff.  Dominique Wilkins of the Atlanta Hawks was known as 'The Human Highlight Reel' for his stunning ability to light up a highlight reel.  The Cubs as a team basically create the Human Incompetence Reel.

These two games should have been won.  They were key division games early in the season and the weather nullified much of the home field advantage.  This is a series the Cubs needed to win if they are going to get back into the NL Central mix.  They put together wins here and there this season, but they aren't going to win anything if they ever have another game like this (photo, left) or allow seven unearned runs.

After all of this, the Cubs headed to South Beach for their last series ever at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens.  Surprisingly, the Cubs won both games there in efficient fashion.  Not so surprisingly, it was their first sweep of the season, albeit a two-game series.  The Cubs did not commit an error in either game.

This led to the Cubs' first trip to Fenway Park in Boston since the 1918 World Series.  News of this World Series came up recently, when a report stemming from a document released by the Chicago History Museum suggested that the Cubs blew the Series for money, much like the White Sox did a year later.  I don't know the truth to this document, and it very well could just be the Sox player hassling the Cubs indirectly about something else.
 
Marlon Byrd was interviewed by Comcast SportsNet on Thursday night after the win against Florida and, when asked on his outlook for the Boston series, he replied, "Sweep Caroline."  I agree that the whole Sweet Caroline tradition at Fenway is really annoying, but hearing this stuff out of him gets tiring to be honest.  Last season, Byrd guaranteed the playoffs in May when the team was falling out of contention.  Well, you saw how that turned out.

The Cubs seemed overwhelmed by an American League offense in the first round on Friday night.  All three games were on national television, with WGN, FOX, and ESPN handling the games, respectively. After an uneventful 15-5 loss Friday, the Cubs bats woke up in the 8th inning of the game Saturday night, and the Red Sox collapsed which was reminiscent of the Cubs' defense collapses.  In a stunning change of momentum, the Cubs put up eight in the 8th and won 9-3.  As the Cubs closed out the bottom of the 9th, the huge contingent of Cubs fans that had traveled to Boston were chanting 'Let's Go Cubbies' at Fenway Park, an action pretty much unprecedented.  Every game at Fenway Park since April 2003 has been a sellout, so it's always full of Red Sox fans.  But Cubs fans took over Fenway late on Saturday.  Although that was nice, it was the only win in the series loss.

The Cubs were quietly shut down by knuckleballer Tim Wakefield on Sunday night.  Such a loss can be expected from the Cubs, as this is one of those games I notice where they just give up at a certain point.  The indifference of the group makes them less interesting to watch for sure, and this is the primary factor in the Cubs attendance struggles of this season.  But either way, this road trip was very up and down.  Mostly down, though, and the Red Sox-Cubs series generated nothing more than publicity for historical content, not a key turning point like it could have been.

Believe it or not, I have faith in the Cubs coming up in the next few weeks.  A nice, long homestand against three bad teams in the Mets, Pirates, and Astros is the perfect time to get into a groove, especially as the ivy will be grown, the weather will be nice, and the fans will be there.  And they'll need to get into a groove, because they then play 20 straight games against teams who had winning records last year.  But I have faith they will, because this team has hung in there despite slow starts from Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena, who are both hitting very well now.  Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner will be huge to this team, as the Cubs will no longer have to deal with immediate five-run deficits by way of James Russell every fifth day.  Hopefully, the Cubs will get lucky for once.
 
  

Speed Thrill Skill

Back in late July at the Trade Deadline, when Ryan Theriot was traded to the Dodgers, I predicted that Jim Hendry would acquire some kind of speed in the offseason.  He has yet to do so, and the clock is ticking.  Theriot stole 16 bases in four months of Cubs baseball, but he still led the team.  Besides him, the 2010 Cubs were led in steals by Starlin Castro with 10; while being caught eight times.  Castro is raw and one can expect production of 20+ steals in the future with his speed, but his development can really be relied upon as the team's main source of speed.  Behind Castro was Kosuke Fukudome with seven; he was also caught a ridiculous eight times.  Speed is clearly a problem and has not been a strength for the Cubs in quite some time.  The last prototypical leadoff man on the North Side was none other than Kenny Lofton; and he lasted three months.  The player I suggest the Cubs try to acquire is not a prototypical leadoff man either, but he is much closer to it than anyone the Cubs have.  The name is B.J. Upton, a 26 year old center fielder playing for Tampa Bay.  Upton has 20/20 potential (he did this in 2007); hell, he has 20/40 potential.  Upton has arguably one of the best five tool skill sets in baseball, but he has yet to put it all together.  He possesses the following abilities: hitting for average (.300 in 2007), decent power (24 homers in 2007), decent run production (82 RBI in 2007), improving plate discipline (97 BB in 2009), good overall scoring (89 runs in 2010), excellent speed (128 steals since 2008), good outfield range (1.5 defensive WAR in 2008), and good on-base percentage (.383 in 2008).  As a big B.J. fan, I've been waiting for a breakout year for quite some time now.  Perhaps a change of scenery is in order.  The Rays, now in a rebuilding mode, aren't going to let him run off for nothing, however.  So here is the trade I propose:

To the Cubs:
CF B.J. Upton
1B Dan Johnson

To the Rays:
RF Kosuke Fukudome (Cubs work out some kind of salary arrangement)
SP Chris Archer
RP James Russell
C Welington Castillo

The Rays, although they have already acquired a few relievers in Cesar Ramos and Joel Peralta, but need more and James Russell is a guy they can work on to make him into an effective middle reliever.  Russell is never going to be a standout player in his career, but he should be a reliable and effective middle reliever for at least a bunch of years.  Chris Archer is the top pitching prospect in the Cubs system, someone the Cubs front office has been excitedly anticipating for a while now.  He can start, but would probably end up in the bullpen with the Rays depth of starters.  Archer is the key prize and centerpiece of this deal.  Kosuke Fukudome has been someone the Rays have discussed in the past and they would be willing to take him but the Cubs would probably have to pay for more than half of his salary.  Fukudome probably has one more chance with a Major League team before his career starts falling apart.  He needs to prove himself, and fast.  Welington Castillo is a prospect the Rays can throw into the catching core that already includes John Jaso, Kelly Shoppach, and Dioner Navarro.  But neither Navarro nor Shoppach hit well enough anymore to have an everyday job, and certainly by the end of next season one of them will not be with the Rays.  It's no secret the Rays aren't afraid to talk trade involving Shoppach namely.

The Cubs get the main guy, B.J. Upton, and first baseman Dan Johnson just to add some depth to the infield.  With Xavier Nady signing with the Diamondbacks, the Cubs no longer have a backup first baseman and will be stuck with Jeff Baker instead, who shouldn't be playing over there.  Baker is an okay infielder, but he shouldn't be the backup for the entire infield and Johnson gives the Cubs a veteran who won't do much offensively but will do enough defensively and give Carlos Pena a little break every once in a while.  Johnson was also played at third base for a short time with the Rays, and this could be something the Cubs experiment with as well.

The upsides to this deal are enormous.  With Upton, the Cubs would offensively be a playoff caliber team just one season after looking lost and disinterested at the plate.  If they could add a veteran starter, these Cubs could make it over the .500 mark.  But speed is crucial.  We don't want the opposing pitchers to be comfortable to pitch and not be distracted by a potential base stealer.  We also don't want to be reliant on hits to move guys around like we did last season.  If Jim Hendry doesn't acquire Upton, which is by far the more likely option, then just pray he gets some kind of speed on this team.  It could be a long, and slow, summer without that speed thrill skill.  

Lights Out Performance by Tom Gorzelanny

On Wednesday against the Dodgers, Tom Gorzelanny got rocked by the Dodgers who ended up winning 8-5, their only win and only runs in the series.  However, Gorzelanny performed lights out.  Literally.  A power outage in the top of the 4th inning delayed play for 18 minutes due to an electrical fire that triggered a shut down of a certain power grid, including Wrigley Field.  The power failure, the third at Wrigley Field during a night game (when it actually matters) before two games against the Brewers in 2003 in separate series, was received with the following call by Len Kasper from the WGN TV booth: "...excellent week weatherwise for this homestand against the Dodgers and Cardinals and...the lights are going out...and they've all gone out!  A power outage here at Wrigley Field.  As DeWitt took the walk some of the lights went out, then pretty much all of them did.  There are about-as I can see-eight or nine lights bulbs that are still actually working.  And we see more light from the cameras taking pictures, I don't ever recall a power outage at Wrigley Field."  Len Kasper and Bob Brenly did great improv work as always with unexpected circumstances.

Blake DeWitt, at the plate with a 3-1 count at the time of the outage, took ball four while the lights were going out.  Gorzelanny was disappointed but took what he got.  "The lights went out during the pitch," Gorzelanny said. "It's kind of brutal. You're in the middle of a pitch. The guy ends up walking. There's nothing you can do about it. I begged for the pitch back, but they wouldn't give it to me.  The good thing about that was I actually did well the rest of the inning," he said. "It's one of the uncontrollable things that ballparks do to you."

DeWitt couldn't see the ball after seeing some flash of light and took his eye off it, luckily it was ball four.  "Thinking back, I wish I had hit a pop up," DeWitt said. "It would've been a good time. I would've had an inside the park home run in the dark."  However, the Cubs players were a little worried and confused.  An inside-the-park home run pop up might have been too hard to deal with for some of the players.  Ryan Theriot was asked what he was thinking at the time of the outage.

"Get the heck out and get off the field as soon as I could," Theriot said. "That was a little scary. I didn't know what was going on."

"It was a little crazy," Alfonso Soriano stated.  The Cubs went on to lose 8-5, but shut out the Dodgers in the other two games of the series in impressive fashion 3-0 and 1-0.  Randy Wells didn't record an out through six batters against the Cardinals on Friday, and was promptly yanked after giving up five runs.  James Russell pitched four impressive scoreless innings after that, but the offense could only muster a pinch-hit solo shot from Tyler Colvin, losing 7-1.  Carlos Silva looks to go 7-0 against new guy Adam Ottavino at 3:10 this afternoon on FOX.