Why Reed Johnson Should Have Gone Out On Top

I'm probably not on the same page as most other Cubs fans on this issue, but I think there's something to be said against the resigning of Reed Johnson, which took place a couple weeks ago.  So far I've been complementing the Cubs on pretty much all of their offseason moves, including the signings of Manny Corpas and Andy Sonnanstine and the trades of Sean Marshall and Tyler Colvin.  I did have reservations on the David DeJesus deal, but there are some things I like there, like his versatility and consistent approach.  The Johnson deal, however, simply doesn't make sense to me.  I'll explain why.

Johnson will be 35 in 2012, entering his fourth out of five seasons with the Cubs (he played with the Dodgers in 2010).  An unquestioned fan favorite who has a knack for clutch offensive skills and all-out, aggressive defense, he is a fundamentally strong baseball player.  Of the five tools, only his contact hitting and defense stand out.

I was formally introduced to Johnson in June 2005 as he hit a three-run homer at Wrigley Field with the Toronto Blue Jays.  He made a much bigger name for himself, however, once he came to a market that would truly appreciate his talent in the North Side of Chicago.

I have always been a Reed fan myself; it's hard not to be when he's the only one who operates at 110% of his ability on defense.  However, the Cubs just recently had a logjam in the outfield in 2010 as Kosuke Fukudome and Tyler Colvin battled for at-bats in right field.  Seems like the Cubs are asking for another one.  Sure, Johnson doesn't need many at-bats or hardly any starts, but he also shouldn't warm the bench for a week straight.

Personally I'd rather see Tony Campana, who was projected as the fourth outfielder, to fill the role that Johnson will in 2012.  Campana, although raw and unknown in potential, is young and has something to prove, unlike Johnson.  Campana's speed factor, which produced 24 steals in very limited playing time last year, is very valuable to a roster that seriously lacks it.  While Johnson plays hard on defense to the naked eye, his defense stats tell that he doesn't field it like he used to.  Johnson's range factor and fielding percentage were both below league average, not to mention a -.1 defensive wins above replacement compared to Campana's .9, even though Johnson got more playing time.

I don't need any statistics, however, to tell you that Theo and Jed are exercising a youth movement.  New Cubs regulars will include Ian Stewart, Travis Wood, and Bryan LaHair/Anthony Rizzo, all of whom are younger than those that they replaced in Aramis Ramirez, Rodrigo Lopez, and Carlos Pena, respectively.  Even though Johnson is a role player, his role is a misfit to me.      

Jim Hendry Walks On; Randy Bush New Interim GM

Jim Hendry walks the concourse for the last
time as general manager of the Cubs.

Late August has become a time of change for the Cubs the past two years.  Last August, Mike Quade replaced Lou Piniella as manager.  In a move I never thought would actually happen in season, GM Jim Hendry was officially fired yesterday, ending his 9-year stint with the Cubs.  Assistant GM Randy Bush has taken over on an interim basis but will not be considered for the full-time job as the organization searches for someone outside the organization, said chairman Tom Ricketts at the press conference.

Being general manager of a big market team requires standing up to a lot of scrutiny.  Sometimes you have to make move, regardless of whether you want to or not.  But Hendry was in a very odd spot.  Ricketts told him that he would be fired in mid-July but that it wouldn't be announced until August, after the deadline to sign draft picks and after the non-waiver trade deadline.  So Hendry had to sign all the remaining picks, including top pick shortstop Javier Baez, and make a trade in the Kosuke Fukudome trade, while knowing he was going to be fired.  Now that's loyalty.

Hendry was choked up during his interview at the podium, and he shouldn't be ashamed.  The Cubs under Hendry went 749-748 during his tenure, but he was still their most successful GM in over half a century, building them to three division titles with essentially two different teams.  He brought in two high profile managers in Dusty Baker and Piniella, both of whom had a sizzling start in their first two seasons but faded in their next two.  Hendry, with Baker, came five outs from getting the Cubs to the World Series in 2003.

Interim GM Randy Bush

Despite all the success Hendry had, many fans thought it was time for him to go and the team to get a fresh start.  I can see understand the viewpoint, and although I didn't necessarily agree, I think the move sent waves in the form of a wake up call through the organization, specifically the players.  The next GM will be a high profile guy as well, which is a good thing.

The reason I didn't think they should remove Hendry is because, seeing the tough position Hendry was in the last two offseasons because of the large payroll, the Cubs have a bright future.  Of course, the payroll was Hendry's fault, but the draft class this year is one of the deepest they've ever had and lots of ending contracts should make this a bullish offseason.  Hendry was also prepared for the big free agent frenzy also, possibly going after Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder.  But if Hendry had to go, now is the right time.

Right now is a crucial time to get the Cubs back on the winning track, at least at the GM's desk.  With the draft picks signed, it's up to the GM (Bush, for now), scouting director Tim Wilken, VP of player personnel Oneri Fleita, and all of their staff to develop them and get 'em to the bigs as soon as they're ready.  While that is the focus for the next few years, the Cubs obviously have the opportunity to add more this winter in free agency and a new GM will want to prove himself by making a big splash such as a Pujols or Fielder.  Success or failure in these moves will decide the Cubs' success over the early 2010s.

Now the big question everyone wants the answer to is who the next GM will be.  Lists of candidates have already been thrown out there in the media and blogosphere.  Although Ricketts made clear in the press conference that the evaluation process will not be public at all, he did say he wants an experienced executive who comes from a winning culture.  This could include, but is not limited to, Josh Byrnes, Padres VP of baseball operations and former Diamondbacks GM who impressively built the 2007 NLCS team, Jerry DiPoto, Diamondbacks Senior VP of scouting and player development, or Rich Hahn, White Sox Assistant GM.  But if it was up to me, I'd go a different route.

Rays GM Andrew Friedman:
scouting and development master

The turnaround of the Tampa Bay Rays was been constructed by scouting and development.  They went from a 66-96 team to a 97-65 team overnight, and at the helm was GM Andrew Friedman.  In the process, Friedman mastered the art of winning from scouting upwards.  That combined with the free agent buying power and overall resources that the Cubs have, and Friedman could be the best in the business in no time.

Friedman is still the GM of the Rays, but reports have stated that, with the restrictions of the limited revenue sources the Rays have, he wants out.  Time to pounce!  

Kosuke Fukudome Dealt to Indians

Kosuke Fukudome has been traded to the Cleveland Indians for prospects Carlton Smith and Abner Abreu, and I'm surprised.  A possible Fukudome trade has been on the Cub fan's wishlist for over a year now but his bloated contract made it hard to do so.  While the Cubs realized they would have to pay most of the remaining money on the contract, Fukudome himself didn't gather all that much interest.  Solid defense and a great on-base percentage is pretty much all Fukudome is known for these days.  Although he is a veteran, he is definitely no clubhouse leader seeing as he still needs an interpreter during interviews.  

Fukudome had about $4.75 million left on his deal to be paid during the remainder of this season, and the Cubs will have to pay $4 million of it.  So this trade can't really be called a 'salary dump' because we're not really, umm, dumping any salary.  But overall this trade is good for the organization.  Now the logjam in the outfield isn't weighed down by the awkward commandments that although Tyler Colvin may be (is) the best right fielder on the team and would be more productive, the Cubs wouldn't want to pay a guy $12 million per season to sit on the bench.  Unluckily for the Cubs, Colvin had an awful start to the season and was sent to the minors, and so the logjam issue was solved, at least temporarily.  Now that Colvin has had some time to work in Triple-A Iowa, it's time for him to get another shot at the starting job.

While Colvin is expected to take over right field duties for at least the end of this season, whether or not he earns the job long term is unknown.  The Indians, on the other hand, will need Fukudome's help right away.  After a sizzling start to the season, the fading Tribe desperately needed to add an offensive piece to help them stay afloat in the weak AL Central.  Fukudome will play in an outfield where stars Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore have both been recently injured.  

For the Cubs, the return in this trade won't make an impact this season.  Smith, 25, is a righty-throwing reliever currently in Triple-A.  He owns a career 4.21 ERA and is a definite pitch-to-contact type pitcher, having struck out only 5.8 batters per nine innings in his career.  Abreu, 21, is a righty-hitting outfielder with a power and speed mix.  The power is still developing, but the decent speed is already there and he has 20-20 potential.  In fact, he's on pace for nearly 20-30 in High-A ball this season.  Not a great average hitter, Abreu needs to work on his plate discipline.

Although Smith is just a mediocre reliever who probably won't make it far in the Major Leagues (if he gets there), Abreu could be a Major League regular by 2014 thanks to his power-speed combo.  Smith could be one of the September call-ups for the Cubs, but Abreu won't be playing in Chicago until 2013 most likely.  Fukudome, meanwhile, is a free agent after this season and definitely won't be returning to the Cubs.  After all, I called it back in April.  But for Colvin, Smith, Abreu, and even Fukudome, who gets to play for a contender now, this was a positive trade.  And for that I applaud Jim Hendry, who's clearly being realistic about this team and how to retool for next season.    

Homestand Analysis: Milwaukee, NY Yankees

Record: 4-3Final Record:  29-42

Although the Yankees slowed down the Cubs in the last two games of this homestand, the Cubs overall played much better baseball, even in the losses.  Fans also arrived in sellout or near-sellout fashion on this homestand and the Cubs definitely benefited from it.  The Cubs are still only 16-22 at home, but their play at Wrigley could heat up with the weather and fans.  

A pumped Carlos Marmol pumps his fist
after getting the save Friday against the Yankees

Against Milwaukee, team chemistry was evident as the team came through with two clutch wins in a row.  Ryan Dempster shut down one of the top offenses in baseball in the Brewers' offense, and Darwin Barney scored the only run of the game in the first game and the Cubs won 1-0.  On Tuesday night, the Cubs trailed late but rallied and won 5-4 on Starlin Castro's walk-off single.  Although the Brewers took one on Wednesday, the Cubs offense came back and put on a show Thursday, scoring 12 including homers from Carlos Pena, Kosuke Fukudome, and Alfonso Soriano.  These three wins sent the first place Brewers to Boston having barely hung on to first, and shocked at these losses.

The Yankees came to town on Friday for the first time since 2003 and second since the 1938 World Series.  The rare matchup attracted national attention, just like the Cubs-Red Sox series in May.  And the series couldn't have begun any better for the Cubs, who put together their most complete win of the season in the opener with Doug Davis surprising everyone including himself in limiting the most powerful offense in the league to just one run over seven plus innings.  Early runs were put on the board, and Reed Johnson saved the day with an amazing diving catch robbing Robinson Cano of extra bases late.

However, the Cubs would lose tight games in the late innings on both Saturday and Sunday.  Perhaps the lack of being able to close these games is due to the fundamental difference between these teams.  The Yankees were just teetering on the edge of breaking the game wide open pretty much the entirety of Sunday night, it seemed.  Putting in rookie Chris Carpenter to face Nick Swisher with two men on in the 8th was just what the Yanks needed to finally come through.  Not the greatest call on Mike Quade's part.  Swisher homered for the first three of six runs that allowed the Yankees to pull away in the 8th and 9th inning on national TV.

Curtis Granderson follows through on an
extra-base hit late Sunday at Wrigley.

Overall, signs of progress have to be looked for from this homestand.  Although the Cubs should have won six instead of just four games, the last two games against the Yankees were no pieces of cake, either.  So the fact that the Cubs played competitively for most of the game is a good sign.

Attendance for the three game series totaled over 126,000, which set an all-time Wrigley record for attendance in a three game set, beating the previous record of almost 125,000 set in July 2007 against the Astros.  Friday and Saturday's attendance both were over 42,000, a mark that hasn't been reached since the 2007 and 2008 playoffs.  But Saturday's attendance, 42,236, surpasses all three of the home playoff games from those two seasons.  Because the bleacher expansion of 2006 added about 3,000 seats to the ballpark, that number also surpasses all of the 2003 playoff games.  This means that Saturday's attendance could be the largest in decades, although I don't know how many.

The improved play came just in time for the series with those evil White Sox, who lost the first game last night 6-3.  Watch for the next couple weeks to decide the season for the Cubs, who will need to determine trade deadline status soon.

Darwin Barney: The Right Man for the Job

Cub fans, meet Darwin Barney.  Many of you have already been acquainted last season, but still many of you are still getting to know the former Oregon State University Beaver.  Getting to know the guy will come quite in handy, as he's here to stay.  If Barney is sent back down to the Minors even once this season, it will come as a surprise to me.  He played so well in Spring Training that he pole vaulted right over the two above him in the depth chart in Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker.  Becoming the first rookie to start on Opening Day since Kosuke Fukudome in 2008, Barney has already entered the Cubs' record books.

Not only does Barney bring energy; he's a hardball, max-effort type player.  These kind of guys are very fun to watch and also conducive to winning, which is obviously a plus.  The max-effort skills of players like Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki have contributed to their widespread popularity probably more than anything else.  This status means that the player will hustle on every single play, work as hard as possible on fundamentals, and play the game 'the right way'.  Barney didn't show up in the Majors just to wave to the TV cameras and bask in popularity; he's here to win.  And he's going to prove that this season.

Barney is also Mike Quade's type of player.  Right away from the Carlos Silva incident, Quade took a no-nonsense attitude.  Barney's just here to play.  The fact that Quade even allowed a rookie to hop over a six year Major League veteran in Baker and a 'valuable' trade return in DeWitt shows that Quade is going to play whoever is going to get the Cubs the win on a certain day.  And as of Opening Day, that man is Darwin Barney.  Although Baker and DeWitt will be getting starts at second base as well, Barney could have the position locked up in just a month or so.      

Scouting Report on 2011 Cubs

The following is a report on the 2011 Cubs by an anonymous baseball expert contacted by Sporting News.

"First baseman's Carlos Pena's lefthanded bat adds to the offensive balance, but this team still has enough holes to prevent it from winning.  I expect the Cubs to be far more competitive than last season, but they don't have a particularly strong rotation and they have a big offensive hole at second base.  This team may go as afar as Carlos Zambrano takes it.  That's a little unsettling base on Big Z's injury problems early last season.  He's also capable of becoming a distraction.
"(Marlon) Byrd, (Alfonso) Soriano, (Tyler) Colvin and (Kosuke) Fukudome offer depth in the outfield.  Starlin Castro is going to be an outstanding player, I believe.  Is Blake DeWitt the answer at second?  I don't know.  And the Cubs probably don't, either.
"The Cubs used to roll out a dominant rotation.  They can't say that anymore.  You don't know what you're going to get out of many of these guys. ... To me, the Cubs are missing another anchor for the rotation."

This guy is absolutely right on a few things, and a little out of date on some others.  But I couldn't agree more with his point about the offensive hole at second base, which will be manned by a platoon between Blake DeWitt, Jeff Baker, and even a bit of Darwin Barney.  The future of second base for the Cubs is Barney.  He's a career .286 hitter in the minors and a terrific contact hitter.  And although he isn't ready for the starting job to break camp this season, I think he will steal the job by the end of summer or Spring Training next year.  Not only is that a compliment to his talents, it speaks towards the Cubs' lack of quality players there.  DeWitt is a career .259 hitter with no speed and little power, although he too is a decent contact hitter.  Baker can only hit lefties, and even then he isn't anything special.  How a guy with his talent level plays in the Majors I don't understand.  So while Barney might hit for a good average, the Cubs will have to go through a season of DeWitt and Baker.

Just a note about this report is that it was written before the Cubs acquired Matt Garza.  That acquisition probably would have drastically changed this report.  The part where the scout says, "the Cubs used to roll out a dominant rotation.  They can't say that anymore," is no longer valid.  First of all, the Cubs haven't rolled out a dominant rotation since 2008.  Second of all, the current rotation isn't quite dominant, but is the second best in the division behind on Milwaukee's.  When he says, "[about Zambrano] he's also capable of being a distraction," he's making a serious understatement.  For the last few years, Zambrano has been a ticking time bomb that goes off at some point in summer.  But the powers of anger management will be put to the test this summer, and we could see a sane Carlos for once.

Overall, the scout pegs them somewhat accurately.  He thinks "this team still has enough holes to prevent it from winning," but that's probably a pessimistic look at this team.  With bad defense, no speed, a decent bullpen, average offense and an above average rotation, I see the Cubs finishing no worse than .500 and giving Milwaukee and Cincinnati a run for their money in this weak division.

2011 Cubs: Bold Predictions

This season's edition of the Cubs should be an interesting one.  With this season's fate to be most likely decided upon the play of unpredictable young players, it could really go anywhere.  I think these Cubs could win 90 games; I also think they could lose 100.  But the difficulty of these predictions is what makes them fun; one must visualize their own results, play it out in their own mind.  When I see these Cubs, here's what I see.  The following ten predictions, some more realistic than others, are in no particular order.

1. Starlin Castro will steal 25 bases.
Castro, known for his raw speed, didn't have much luck stealing bases at the Major League level in 2010.  Being thrown out eight out of 18 tries and being picked off multiple times, it was clear Castro has some work to do when it comes to knowing when to run and how to recognize pitcher pickoff moves.  This is something Mike Quade and his staff will surely work on in Spring Training, however, because Castro's speed may be the only real speed on this team.

2. The 2011 season will be Marlon Byrd's last as a Cub.
Byrd is known for his great clubhouse chemistry and attitude towards the game, and his fielding range in center field is outstretched by very few.  Clearly this sets a great example for young teams looking for a leader.  And although Byrd's contract with the Cubs runs through 2012, I see him being traded in most scenarios the Cubs could run into this season.  If the Cubs are well out of contention, he will be dealt at the deadline in July.  If the Cubs hang around and hover near .500, he will last the season but be traded in the offseason to beef up the pitching or veterans in the field.  If the Cubs win the division and play very well all season long, he will probably stick around.  But as we know, that's highly unlikely.  Why would the Cubs want to trade Byrd?  Because center fielder Brett Jackson, the Cubs' 2009 1st Round Draft Pick, is rapidly on his way towards the Majors.  Jackson's five tool ability makes him the perfect fit for the center field at Wrigley Field.  There probably isn't room for both Jackson and Byrd in this town.

3. Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, and Matt Garza will combine for 45 wins.
In the rotation for a full season barring injury, all three are locks for 10 wins.  Garza will be moving to the National League and out of the hitter-happy AL East, meaning he should only get better.  Considering he already wins 15 games in that AL East, there's no reason why he shouldn't in the NL Central.  Ryan Dempster also had a 15-win season in 2010, his first since 2008 but only the third in his career.  Dempster has never had a stretch of three seasons as dominant as the last three in his career, and actually posted a career high in K/9 innings at his 2010 age of 33.  He should be able to get there.  Carlos Zambrano for 15 wins?  I know it sounds like a stretch.  But Zambrano learned how to pitch last season; like actually learned to locate.  His fastball might top out at 90mph on a given night, but unlike earlier years, he can still win with that. Keep that in mind heading into this season, and I see these three being an a-okay trio at the top of the rotation.

4. The 2012 Cubs will make the playoffs.
It's as simple as that.  Although Carlos Pena is a free agent after 2011, this could mean the Cubs will want him back on a long term deal or, more likely, the Cubs will go after free agent Prince Fielder.  Either move should give the Cubs enough to contend in 2012.  2009 1st Round Draft Pick Brett Jackson should be in the Majors at some point in 2012, and he will be a special player who should make an impact immediately.  Another year of progression for Starlin Castro, who should be a star by then, will also help.  The Cubs' strong farm system, still strong despite dealing three of its top ten prospects to Tampa Bay in the Garza trade, has many pieces that will be contributing soon.

5. When the Cubs jokingly said they would have to retaliate by throwing at Cardinals shortstop Ryan Theriot for his criticism of the Cubs, they weren't kidding.
The scrappy Theriot isn't hard to miss, but his radio appearance on a St. Louis radio show was.  Theriot, just sucking up to Cardinals fans upon arrival, said that it felt great to "finally be on the right side" of the Cubs-Cardinals rivalry.  While it was no specific attack on the Cubs, Cubs players took offense to it.  Mike Quade is going to get his squad more emotionally pumped than Lou Piniella did, and retaliation to Theriot's comments could be an excuse for these Cubs to give the Cardinals a wake-up call and send a message that it isn't just St. Louis and Cincinnati for the division title.

6. By a wide margin, Kosuke Fukudome will lead the lead in bench warming, even if he is traded at the deadline. 
Tyler Colvin didn't show us all of his potential in 2010 and became less effective at the plate as the season went on.  Colvin will continue to develop and have an even better season in 2011.  While Fukudome can get on base, this is pretty much all he offers offensively.  That is a highly-regarded trait at the Trade Deadline, however, so he could be moved for his defense and on-base percentage.  Colvin's play will demand starting everyday while Reed Johnson actually offers more defensively than Fukudome does, making Fukudome dispensable.

7. These Cubs will prove that they actually do have emotions, and will show them.
This ties in to #5 as well.  The 2010 Cubs, for most of the season, appeared to be many of the 'living dead'.  The Cubs were on pace to lose well over 90 games, and yet with the exception of Carlos Zambrano there was no frustration to be seen on or off the field from the players.  This showed the fan base that the players didn't care enough, and the fans responded by not coming to games.

8. The current tandem at second base, Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker, will fail.  Neither will be starting at second at the end of this season.
It's already clear that second base will be a major offensive weakness for the Cubs, and two below average hitters won't cut it.  The plan is to play DeWitt against righties, Baker against lefties.  It won't work because DeWitt can't hit enough to sustain a starting job (or platoon for that matter) and Baker's power contributions probably will be few and far between.  For a hitter like Baker who can hit for power when he gets in a roll, it's hard to build an base of consistency when you play around every other day but could go five days without playing.
 
9. You will have a sudden urge to splurge for that $15 replica helmet stuffed to the brim with loaded nachos.
See?  Your mouth is watering already.  Whether the Cubs are winning or not, there's nothing like a nice distraction.  The food options at Wrigley Field are, slowly, getting better.  And if you haven't tried this monster bowl yet, do it just once.  It's more experience than food, and hey, it's a darn good conversation starter.

10. The Cubs will finish at .500 or above, but miss the playoffs. 
The Cubs have talent there; the key will be getting a swagger back.  The whole 'Sweet Lou' and 'It's Gonna Happen' swagger of 2008 took a huge hit with the playoff loss to the Dodgers and was gone after a depressing 2009 season.  There was little to no swagger of the 2010 Cubs and this is something every winning team needs.  These Cubs will be younger than teams before, and young players bring energy.  This energy could by what the Cubs are fueled by.  The talent the Cubs do have is not stronger than that of the Reds, Cardinals, or even Brewers.  But we haven't seen the potential of hardly any of the prospects yet, and these Cubs could go anywhere.  If I have to make a prediction, I say they're a .500 team.

Is Matt Garza Worth It?

Ben Nicholson-Smith of mlbtr.com reports that GM Jim Hendry is trying very hard for Matt Garza in a deal that would send Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Chris Archer, and Brandon Guyer.  Garza is 42-44 in his career with a 3.97 career ERA, playing his career with the Twins and Rays.  He is 27 and has pitched 592.1 innings over the last three years, including at least 200 in the last two.  Garza will be an innings eater no matter where he goes but could become even better with the possible move to the National League, especially moving out of the powerful AL East.  There's no doubt that he is a great pitcher and could win 15 games, and is exactly the kind of guy the Cubs need, but he comes at a high price.

As I said yesterday about a possible trade for B.J. Upton, Chris Archer is the top pitching prospect in the Cubs organization.  If we are able to get Garza, Archer could be a guy we no longer need.  Hak-Ju Lee, a man I called the Korean Jose Reyes before the 2010 season, has fantastic speed and has shown it over the last two seasons.  He is the guy I would be most concerned about parting with; he could be a breakout player down the road.  But the fact is that the Rays have Reid Brignac at shortstop after trading away Jason Bartlett, and Brignac will never be a starting infielder in his career.  Lee is the speed that the Cubs need in the future, and trading him would add a lot of risk that he would burn us and become a star.  Guyer ripped through AA ball hitting a ridiculous .344 with 13 homers and 58 RBI in 102 games.  Guyer plays all three outfield positions, but that doesn't necessarily help his chances of making the Major League version of the Cubs.  He also stole 30 bases in 2010 and is a future 20/20 talent in the Majors.  But the Cubs have Tyler Colvin, Marlon Byrd, Alfonso Soriano, and Kosuke Fukudome in the outfield rotation and the Cubs would not want Guyer sitting on the bench playing every once in a while.  None of those four outfielders appear to be going anywhere soon, so Guyer is out of luck.  He's like Tyler Colvin, but with a lot of speed.  I think the Cubs would love to have him, but there's not room so he should be traded.  Chirinos isn't a youngster anymore at 27, an average hitting catcher who isn't anything special.  The Cubs don't have a necessity for him.

To the Cubs:
SP Matt Garza

To the Rays:
SP Chris Archer
SS Hak-Ju Lee
OF Brandon Guyer
C Robinson Chirinos

The Verdict: Pull the trigger.  If the Cubs acquire Matt Garza, this should be a winning season and the NL Central should be weak in 2011, giving the Cubs a shot at the division title.  Garza would give the Cubs a rotation of Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells, and Tom Gorzelanny or Carlos Silva.  An adequate rotation, to say the least.  Just reading that rotation is exciting!  Let's hope Hendry figures it out.

Speed Thrill Skill

Back in late July at the Trade Deadline, when Ryan Theriot was traded to the Dodgers, I predicted that Jim Hendry would acquire some kind of speed in the offseason.  He has yet to do so, and the clock is ticking.  Theriot stole 16 bases in four months of Cubs baseball, but he still led the team.  Besides him, the 2010 Cubs were led in steals by Starlin Castro with 10; while being caught eight times.  Castro is raw and one can expect production of 20+ steals in the future with his speed, but his development can really be relied upon as the team's main source of speed.  Behind Castro was Kosuke Fukudome with seven; he was also caught a ridiculous eight times.  Speed is clearly a problem and has not been a strength for the Cubs in quite some time.  The last prototypical leadoff man on the North Side was none other than Kenny Lofton; and he lasted three months.  The player I suggest the Cubs try to acquire is not a prototypical leadoff man either, but he is much closer to it than anyone the Cubs have.  The name is B.J. Upton, a 26 year old center fielder playing for Tampa Bay.  Upton has 20/20 potential (he did this in 2007); hell, he has 20/40 potential.  Upton has arguably one of the best five tool skill sets in baseball, but he has yet to put it all together.  He possesses the following abilities: hitting for average (.300 in 2007), decent power (24 homers in 2007), decent run production (82 RBI in 2007), improving plate discipline (97 BB in 2009), good overall scoring (89 runs in 2010), excellent speed (128 steals since 2008), good outfield range (1.5 defensive WAR in 2008), and good on-base percentage (.383 in 2008).  As a big B.J. fan, I've been waiting for a breakout year for quite some time now.  Perhaps a change of scenery is in order.  The Rays, now in a rebuilding mode, aren't going to let him run off for nothing, however.  So here is the trade I propose:

To the Cubs:
CF B.J. Upton
1B Dan Johnson

To the Rays:
RF Kosuke Fukudome (Cubs work out some kind of salary arrangement)
SP Chris Archer
RP James Russell
C Welington Castillo

The Rays, although they have already acquired a few relievers in Cesar Ramos and Joel Peralta, but need more and James Russell is a guy they can work on to make him into an effective middle reliever.  Russell is never going to be a standout player in his career, but he should be a reliable and effective middle reliever for at least a bunch of years.  Chris Archer is the top pitching prospect in the Cubs system, someone the Cubs front office has been excitedly anticipating for a while now.  He can start, but would probably end up in the bullpen with the Rays depth of starters.  Archer is the key prize and centerpiece of this deal.  Kosuke Fukudome has been someone the Rays have discussed in the past and they would be willing to take him but the Cubs would probably have to pay for more than half of his salary.  Fukudome probably has one more chance with a Major League team before his career starts falling apart.  He needs to prove himself, and fast.  Welington Castillo is a prospect the Rays can throw into the catching core that already includes John Jaso, Kelly Shoppach, and Dioner Navarro.  But neither Navarro nor Shoppach hit well enough anymore to have an everyday job, and certainly by the end of next season one of them will not be with the Rays.  It's no secret the Rays aren't afraid to talk trade involving Shoppach namely.

The Cubs get the main guy, B.J. Upton, and first baseman Dan Johnson just to add some depth to the infield.  With Xavier Nady signing with the Diamondbacks, the Cubs no longer have a backup first baseman and will be stuck with Jeff Baker instead, who shouldn't be playing over there.  Baker is an okay infielder, but he shouldn't be the backup for the entire infield and Johnson gives the Cubs a veteran who won't do much offensively but will do enough defensively and give Carlos Pena a little break every once in a while.  Johnson was also played at third base for a short time with the Rays, and this could be something the Cubs experiment with as well.

The upsides to this deal are enormous.  With Upton, the Cubs would offensively be a playoff caliber team just one season after looking lost and disinterested at the plate.  If they could add a veteran starter, these Cubs could make it over the .500 mark.  But speed is crucial.  We don't want the opposing pitchers to be comfortable to pitch and not be distracted by a potential base stealer.  We also don't want to be reliant on hits to move guys around like we did last season.  If Jim Hendry doesn't acquire Upton, which is by far the more likely option, then just pray he gets some kind of speed on this team.  It could be a long, and slow, summer without that speed thrill skill.  

The Ricketts Report

It's been more than a full year since Tom Ricketts and family took over as owners of the Chicago Cubs.  In the first year, the Ricketts have made noticeable changes.  They have made numerous changes to make the Cubs and Wrigley Field better, all while maximizing revenue.  They have received credit for the improvements, coming from a fan base tired of general statements from Chicago Tribune spokespeople and press secretaries.  There have also been criticisms of the Ricketts, especially due to the unusual and unique situation of owning the Cubs, certainly a franchise different than any other.

In the opening press conference on the day the sale of the Cubs was completed, in fall 2009 shortly after the end of the regular season, Tom Ricketts stated that if anyone in the Cubs organization believed that the franchise was cursed, he would move them to a 'lesser-cursed' team.  Among many philosophies, the Ricketts instilled from Day 1 that there is no curse surrounding the team.  This highlighted a politically correct press conference, playing conservative and saying nothing unexpected, and would set the tone for the offseason.  A new marketing campaign was launched upon, dubbing the new slogan, 'Year One'.

The 2009-10 offseason was not an aggressive one for the Cubs, who were just glad to be rid of the cancer known as Milton Bradley.  Marlon Byrd was the only positional starter signed, while the other veteran bats in Xavier Nady, Chad Tracy and Kevin Millar were intended for the bench.  A solid pickup in Byrd, but not one that could turn the Cubs into a playoff team.  The Ricketts announced change would be coming to Wrigley Field in 2010, and this could be found in the ballpark.  While not immediately noticeable, the changes include a better variety of food options including popular new nachos served in a replica helmet for $15.  Some bathrooms were remodeled (womens only; no wonder neither you nor I noticed).  Ticket prices were raised to add more revenue, improvements were made to the Captain Morgan Club outside the stadium, a new exclusive club called the PNC Club, created in the space of six former skyboxes, opened in midseason with a full bar, lounge area, seats outside, and a hefty admission tag.  Most importantly, the Cubs hired 'fan relations' staff whose job it was to learn what fans thought of the changes, and what could be done to improve further.  I was quite surprised when a fan relations staff member approached and asked me many thorough questions about the changes at the ballpark.  Of course, all of the efforts made by the Ricketts in this paragraph were all to help accomplish one goal; increase revenue.

While the Ricketts have attempted to get in touch with the fan base, many aren't sure they're listening.  It has been just one calendar year since the completed sale of the team, so withheld judgment may be necessary, but some attempts to increase revenue have not sat well with the fan base.  For example, raising ticket prices before the 2010 season was not a great idea, considering how prices have raised faster than dollar inflation in recent years.  The Cubs overtook the Red Sox in 2010 with the highest average ticket price of any MLB team at $52.56.  That figure was 10.1% increase over 2009 and a drastic comparison to the Arizona Diamondbacks' league lowest rate of $14.31.  In this current offseason of 2010-11, the Ricketts announced a proposal to the government of Illinois, a publicly-funded renovation plan of Wrigley Field.  Under the plan, fans would pay a majority of funds for the renovation through extra taxes at the ballpark and on tickets, merchandise, and the like.  Somehow, the White Sox were able to command government money to build a new stadium in the early 90s after they nearly moved to Tampa.  But now, when the Cubs decide to renovate Wrigley Field, which should be the equivalent of building a new stadium but with the same structure, we, the public, have to pay for it.  Despite the economy, the government needs to understand the vitality of this project due to the projected economic growth to the area (read on).  The renovations include the construction of the infamous Triangle Building to the immediate west of Wrigley.  The building will connect to Wrigley and have shops, restaurants, fan entertainment, a Cubs Hall of Fame, underground batting cages for the players, administrative offices, and more.  While the renovations look to create jobs and economic growth for the area (a projected $3 billion over the next 35 years), it will cost the fans plenty of money in the new taxes.  Execution of the plan is still in jeopardy, because if the Cubs continue to lose and attendance continues to drop, the revenue stream for the plan could fail.

This brings up another topic of conflict with the Ricketts ownership: winning.  The Cubs didn't do it much in 2010 and Cub fans were disappointed in the Ricketts' attempts to fix the team.  While they may be concerned about revenue first now, the team needs to win to keep fans happy.  At the moment the Cubs are being held down by bad contracts (Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome) and are short on financial flexibility.  The problem, though, is that the Ricketts are afraid to take an aggressive move this early in the ownership to win.  For example, the hiring of Mike Quade over Ryne Sandberg was the politically correct move.  Actually, both would have been politically correct, but the hiring of Quade and letting go of Sandberg is more justifiable than the vice versa option.  Quade went 24-13 at the end of the season, was supported by virtually every player on the roster, and was backed strongly by Lou Piniella.  Sandberg had paid his dues in the minors and had done everything he could to win the job, but didn't win out because his hiring would have meant a smack in the face to the entire organization that had come to like Quade.  I'd expect more aggressive moves this season, but it may not be enough.  The players and staff need to understand that the Cubs will not put up with a lack of effort or failure.

In conclusion, the Ricketts shouldn't have started their ownership of the franchise with passive action.  Renovations and improvements to the fan experience hold promise to make the Wrigley Field environment a more enjoyable one, but the methods of achieving this goals continue to raise eyebrows and uncertainty.  This team has missed the playoffs in two straight seasons, by a relatively wide margin, while failing expectations both seasons.  Neither have been good for the franchise, and winning is the crucial fix to many problems.  Winning can set up a chain reaction through a revitalization of the team meaning more revenue, that same original goal.  The Ricketts showed a disinterest in winning compared to revenue growth in 2010, a pattern that needs to change going forward.          

Cubs Hot Stove Buzz

The Cubs have plenty of needs on their wishlist for this offseason.  One of the biggest is the left handed first baseman, preferably with power.  Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano said earlier in the season that the Cubs should focus on pitching needs this offseason and that they can handle the offense, but they haven't proved that at all over the last two seasons.  In 2009, Derrek Lee led the offense by far.  In 2010, the offense sucked for the most part.  In the first baseman market for the Cubs so far is, above all, Adam Dunn, then Victor Martinez or Aubrey Huff, then Lance Berkman.  I really do see Dunn coming to Chicago the only question is if the Cubs are willing to pay that much for a guy probably looking for $10 million.

Before the Cubs can get too excited about spending money, they need to trade Kosuke Fukudome.  Fukudome is owed $13.5 million in 2011, so it will be tough considering Fukudome's awful value relative to salary.  Jim Hendry has a lot of critics, but everyone can agree that the one thing he has done best is dump bad contracts (see: Milton Bradley).  He only has one year left on his contract and has been a huge bust offensively but great defensively.  He will never sniff that kind of money for the rest of his baseball career.  On the pitching side, the Cubs are interested in Jon Garland who expressed interest in the Cubs last offseason.  Other mid-level starters are what the Cubs are looking for, and could find that in a guy like Carl Pavano or Javier Vazquez.  Cliff Lee is out of the Cubs price range.  Kerry Wood, who would like to return to Chicago, will have to take a pay cut if he is to do so because there is no way the Cubs will pay him $10 million that he was making last year.  I don't see the Cubs wanting to pay him more than $2 million.  The hunt for a veteran middle reliever continues.

1st Half In Review

For the Chicago Cubs, the first half of the 2010 baseball season has been about as disappointing as a half for any team this season.  Coming into the season with high hopes of regaining form of spectacular play in the regular season of 2008 with new ownership and a new attitude, it became clear early on that the 2010 Cubs would struggle to score runs.  This was quite evident in the entire first half and the 7-0 shutout loss to Vicente Padilla and the Dodgers summed it up frustratingly.

After exciting runs for and in the playoffs in 2003 and 2004, the Cubs changed from being perennial cellar dwellers to a high profile team that looked to win every year no matter what.  The 2008 season was the high point for the Cubs on the field, a team that did so many things right fell to Los Angeles in the playoffs and joined past playoff futility.  The Cubs didn't perform to expectations at all in 2009, and many changes to the bullpen and the controversial signing of Milton Bradley while losing team pieces like Mark DeRosa and Jason Marquis were cited as the problems with the team.  However, as the Cubs have yet again struggled in 2010, they may go back to being baseball's 'Lovable Losers'.

Report Card:

Offense: D+
Defense: C+
Starting Pitching: A-
Bullpen: B
Coaching: B-

Overall Grade: C

The biggest struggle so far has to be scoring runs.  The Cubs have been just terrible scoring runs, ranking 13th in the NL in runs.  The Padres, yes, the Padres who play in enormous Petco Park and have Adrian Gonzalez for their only real home run threat have scored more.  The Cubs are 11th in walks, a category that was praised in 2008 when the Cubs' patience lead to a more efficient offense.  They are also 11th in OBP and BA.  They are tied for the least stolen bases in the NL with 34.  Looking up and down the roster, this is not a team made for smallball.  It is a team to get runners on and get them around using big doubles or homers.  So far, neither the runners nor the bop from the big boppers has arrived.  The defense, long a troubled category for the Cubs, is nothing special thing year except maybe the all out play of Marlon Byrd and the over/under on how many errors Starlin Castro can make in a week.  The pitching has become a real bright spot from the most unlikely places like Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, and Sean Marshall.  Lou Piniella has literally done all he can and now he just has to wait but you just have to question his ability to get through to the players.

The Cubs are stuffed with huge contracts and are severely overpaying more than a few on the roster.  From now until the Trade Deadline, look for the Cubs to try to unload at least one of these contracts whether they are in contention or not.  I think the first one to go will be Ted Lilly.  Lilly has become a fan favorite at Wrigley Field because of his old school yet effective pitching style.  And okay, his crazy adventures on the basepaths.  Ted has drawn interest from the Mets who would be able to take his salary and are looking for another arm to beef up for the stretch run.  While I don't think the Cubs will be able to get rid of all the big contracts they want to if the Cubs are bad, I wouldn't be surprised if Derrek Lee and/or Kosuke Fukudome go.  Fukudome has a ridiculous $14 million contract when a player with his stats doesn't even deserve a quarter of that.  Lee has been a fixture at first base for many years now on the North Side and had a comeback campaign in 2009 but hasn't recaptured the magic into this year, disappointing fans once again after his MVP-caliber season in 2005.

I think the Cubs will make a run.  Aramis Ramirez is back and healthy as he proved on the West Coast trip before the break.  He will be key in this run and it won't be anything crazy like the White Sox but the Cubs will play good ball on this homestand here and continue it on the road.  The starters can be relied upon for great starts and the bullpen can survive long enough not that they have everything figured out, including the playing time for impressive rookie Andrew Cashner.  The young kids that the Cubs are fielding in the minors and even the majors now like Castro and Cashner should provide reason to be excited.  Attendance at Wrigley Field has taken a surprising downturn but I think it will get higher with the continued weather of summer and a better home record by the Cubs.  With their blowout win Thursday night, I think they're headed in the right direction.

Final Prediction: 80-82

Road Trip Wrapup: Arizona, Los Angeles (NL)

Record: 4-3
Final Record: 39-50
Games Behind First: 9.5 GB

Aramis Ramirez got on his first hot streak of the year as the Cubs finished the trip with a winning record.  A sweep of Arizona meant the Cubs only needed one win in LA to make this a winning trip and they got that one win but none more, losing three of four to the Dodgers.  The offense woke up in the series, and the Cubs will be winning more ball games if they can swing the bat like they have recently.

The Arizona series had a different feel to it than most of the series this season.  It felt like the Cubs were in control and they usually had the lead.  Kosuke Fukudome hit a leadoff homer in the 1st, Starlin Castro hit a two-run triple in the 2nd, and Geovany Soto hit an RBI double in the 2nd to put the DBacks down 4-0 early.  Arizona made it a tight game at 4-2 and 5-3 but another Soto RBI double and a Mike Fontenot RBI single extended their lead.  The blow that put the game out of reach in the 9th was Alfonso Soriano's two-run homer.  Tom Gorzelanny was efficient enough for a win.  Diamondbacks pitcher Barry Enright made his Chase Field debut starting on Tuesday and began well but faded as the game progressed.  With a 1-0 lead in the 6th, he gave up homers to Fukudome (solo) and Ramirez (two-run).  A Kelly Johnson homer made it 3-2, but an RBI from Ryan Theriot and another two-run homer by Ramirez made it 6-2.  Sean Marshall gave up two to make it interesting but Carlos Marmol shut the door closing it out, striking out all five he faced.  Carlos Silva gave up two runs over six innings and earned the win.  In a 3-3 game Wednesday night, Starlin Castro hit a two-run single to take the lead in the 5th.  Another home run from Ramirez, this time a three-run jack, gave the Cubs a 8-3 lead in the 9th and they never looked back.  Ryan Dempster went five and struck out six to earn the win, beating Edwin Jackson who had also knocked in an RBI in this game.

The first game at Dodger Stadium Thursday night was reminiscent of games earlier in the season.  James Loney hit an RBI single in the first but Soriano homered in the second to tie it at one.  Geovany Soto hit an RBI single and that was all the Cubs could do as Randy Wells was left in the game late once again with a tiny lead.  The time bomb went off when All-Star Rafael Furcal mashed a two-run homer down the line in right to completely shift momentum and the lead just like that.  Jonathan Broxton picked up the save.  Ted Lilly didn't pitch well at all Friday and the Dodgers jumped on him early.  After getting a 1-0 lead he gave up a three-run homer to Russell Martin, his first homer in nearly two months.  He gave up RBIs to Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Casey Blake, and Andre Ethier again.  What seemed like a blowout at 7-2 wasn't as the Cubs came crawling back from a wild pitch, a sac fly, an RBI triple from Ramirez, and an RBI single by the All-Star Marlon Byrd.  The Cubs couldn't finish though and lost 9-7. On national TV Saturday, the Cubs put on a show.  Soto gulfed a two-run homer in the 2nd and the Cubs put on the offense.  Aramis Ramirez hit another homer, his fourth of the trip, in the 7th.  John Ely was rocked for six runs over only two and a third innings, his fourth straight bad appearance at Dodger Stadium.  Tom Gorzelanny got the win as the Cubs took it 7-3.  In the series finale Sunday night on the ESPN, the Cubs were shut out in their last game before the break.  Vicente Padilla was on his game and threw eight shutout innings, including not allowing a hit until the 6th when Starlin Castro lined a leadoff double.  Ryan Theriot did the same in the next inning but didn't score.  The Dodgers jumped on Carlos Silva early, who was using too many breaking balls in this game and needed to get back to his hard sinker.  James Loney got a three-run homer in the first off him and the Dodgers got three more in the second.  Silva was ejected after Loney was called safe on a play at first base, and by the replay he was clearly out.  It was Silva's own fault because he didn't cover first base and Xavier Nady had to race to the bag to get the out.  It was the second close play already at first base and although the first one wasn't an out Silva was enraged and yelled in frustration.  He was tossed but was going to be taken out anyway by Lou Piniella.

The ESPN crew asked Piniella during a commercial break, a traditional questioning with the manager that takes place on Sunday Night Baseball, what the Cubs need to do to get back in the Central race.  "If we swing the bats, we're gonna be okay."  That was the line that stood out to me, and the way the Cubs swung those bats in this past week was certainly reason for excitement.  If they can do it like that consistently we will have no problem coming back to .500 like the Sox did.  With a big ten-game homestand coming up after the All-Star Break, the Cubs will need to score runs to beat the Phillies and Cardinals for sure and to avoid embarrassing losses to Houston.  They will also need to improve in one-run games where they are just 11-20.  I was really proud of the Cubbies during the Arizona series who showed some real fight.  I was impressed by their command of the game and I sense we will see more of this in the second half.  If there was ever a team to take out your frustrations on, make it Philly, easily my least favorite team in baseball.  Easily.  But now, Marlon Byrd heads to Anaheim for the All-Star Game and everyone else goes home.  According to a promo, the All-Star Game will be played on the beach right by Santa Monica Pier.  It won't really, but wouldn't that be interesting?  A sand diamond with the ocean the outfield 'wall'.  Ideas for the future....

Homestand Wrapup: Chi Sox, Oakland, Los Angeles (AL)

Record: 4-5
Final Record: 31-38
Games Behind First: 7.0

For info on the first series against the Sox, go see the Crosstown Classic: Round One post right below this one.

Baseball fundamentals, specifically fielding, have not been a bright spot on the Cubs teams of recent years. When the Cubs were able to win with teams like 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2008, scouts cited the Cubs' high level of talent which made up for that.  However, the lack of fielding was put on display in bad fashion as the frustrated Cubs allowed too many unearned runs coming from errors and simply bad baseball.

Oakland put the pressure on the Cubs defense in game one of the series, winning 9-5 getting help from four errors committed by the Cubs, including Derrek Lee's first career two error inning.  Not only is Lee's bat unreliable these days, his former Gold Glove defense is failing him.  This game was completely ugly and the Cubs did not deserve to win.  Lee made up for it by smashing a homer to left in the 2nd Wednesday night, and the Cubs put up a zero in the error column in a 6-2 win.  Ryan Dempster pitched well and Alfonso Soriano amazingly put down a bunt, trying to play smallball on a team built for the homer.  But hey, if it works, I'll take it.  The Cubs got a surprising win on Thursday in comeback fashion with Kosuke Fukudome being the MVP in this one.  He scored to tie the game at 2 on Xavier Nady's sac fly in the 8th and hit a walk-off single to right to win it, 3-2.  Randy Wells was efficient and I was glad the Cubs were able to pull out this one.  The Cubs really need to be able to come back late in games, especially at home.  The opposing teams will play their bullpens more conservatively and basically just cruise to a win unless the Cubs make 'em earn it.  If they can't come back, at least make it a ballgame.

The Cubs did just that in the opener against the Angels.  In the former California and Anaheim Angels franchise's first ever trip to Wrigley Field, the Cubs' evil defense committed three errors and by the time the Cubs looked up at the scoreboard in the 8th it was 7-2 LA in front.  Tyler Colvin blasted a three-run homer in the 9th to make it a two run game for Derrek Lee, who redeemed himself for his error earlier in the game with a homer.  The rally died, though, and Fernando Rodney finished it.  There isn't much to talk about on Saturday.  It was all Angels.  Literally all Angels.  Howie Kendrick hit a leadoff homer for the first of his three RBI, and the game was pretty much over after Torii Hunter's blast two-run blast to make it 6-0 in the 5th.  Ted Lilly was nothing like his dominant self from the heroics of the Sunday nighter against the Sox a weekend ago.  The Cubs couldn't manage a run and fell 12-0.  Sunday was a nice rebound, and they really needed it.  Lou Piniella has now admitted he has done everything he can with this personnel to win, and the Cubs need to believe that.  It's on them now.  A 12-1 win like the one the Cubs got on Sunday would have been a whole lot sweeter if the mood didn't suggest that a win that day was probably more crucial than any other game so far this season.

Up next for the Cubs is Safeco Field in Seattle where the Cubs are 2-1 in franchise history.  2002, the first time the Cubs ever played the Seattle Mariners franchise, saw Mark Prior throw 124 pitches through seven shutout innings and 11 Ks to pick up a 2-0 win.  Freddy Garcia beat the Cubs in the next one 4-2, but Jon Lieber took the finale 5-1 and the Cubs won the series against the divisional contender at the team who were led by none other than manager Lou Piniella.  The Cubs also took two of three in 2007 at Wrigley Field, so the Cubs are 4-2 all-time against the Mariners.      

Crosstown Classic: Round One

There have been plenty of skeptics the last two years of the relatively dull popularity of the Cubs-Sox series.  However, I believe this series really revitalized it once again.

On Friday, the buzz returned to Wrigley Field as the Sox fans marched in.  They had plenty to cheer about with Alex Rios and AJ Pierzynski both collecting four hits and a homer each.  Carlos Quentin poured on the score with a homer along with a bunch of hits in the late innings, and the Sox rolled 10-2.  The only highlight and scoring for the Cubs came in the second when Alfonso Soriano hit a two run homer, the 300th of his career just two days after Derrek Lee got his in Milwaukee. 

Carlos Silva had reason to be frustrated Saturday.  More problems with Xavier Nady cost the Cubs another win.  Paul Konerko hit an RBI single early on that would have been caught with Tyler Colvin or Kosuke Fukudome in right.  However, Nady pulled up instead of going all out.  There wasn't any scoring until the top of the 8th, when Konerko hit an RBI single to the same spot and once again Nady pulled up.  The Cubs pushed across a run in the 9th, and the tying run was on base at the end of the game.  If Nady had gotten both of those like Fukudome or Colvin would've, the Cubs had a win.  I'm aware that Nady is basically a DH, but I really think that for him to be making over three million dollars to be a fifth outfielder/backup first baseman he needs to be diving at every opportunity.  Guys like him aren't playing all-out ball.

Sunday night was what has made this series a big deal again.  This was the definition of a pitchers duel.  Ted Lilly and Gavin Floyd both threw 6.2 IP of no hit baseball, but Alfonso Soriano doubled ending Floyd's no hitter.  On the next pitch, Chad Tracy brought him home with a single up the middle.  That was all the scoring the Cubs would need, but Ted Lilly lost his no hitter in the top of the 9th in shocking fashion against former Cub Juan Pierre.  Carlos Marmol loaded the bases, but got Carlos Quentin to pop out to end the ballgame.  Ted Lilly pitched by far the best game of his career.  The only thing that consistently bothered me was Jon Miller's constant mentioning of the no hitters in progress.  Joe Morgan even mentioned later that it "used" to be an unwritten rule not to mention it on the air.  They just said that because they realized that fans weren't too happy about what they were doing.

This series is changed.  You can bet this won't be the last time the media reminds you of what happened this weekend, especially with Ted Lilly.  I'm just putting it out there that if the Cubs follow the regular rotation with Lilly, he will get the first start of the second Sox series.  If both the Cubs and Sox are done for the season, which the upcoming two weeks of interleague play could decide, enjoy the next Crosstown Classic series in two weeks as the only playoff atmosphere either team will have in 2010.    

(Marlon) Byrd's the Word

Guaranteed amusement comes from the famous Family Guy episode where Peter Griffin basically has a seizure about the Bird is the Word.  If you haven't seen it a million times, there's a first for everything: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WNrx2jq184.  The Cubs have a Byrd in center field.  He swoops over the grass and takes flight to catch fly balls, animal instincts few center fielders possess.  I was thrilled at a Qdoba Restaurant in Madison, Wisconsin when the ESPNEWS ticker informed me a linebacker had just been signed by the Cubs. 

Marlon Byrd, all 6'0", 245 lbs. of him, became a popular figure in Cubdom from his first Cubs at-bat by hitting a three-run homer, just like Starlin Castro.  He has been very consistent and very important in the 29 games since then.  Byrd has already bonded well with Fukudome and Soriano in the outfield and has proven himself so far to a fan base that, because of hotheaded outfielders past, has become quick to pounce on and criticize outfielders.  His 23 RBI and .339 BA in 30 games make up a big part of the following stats in the next paragraph.

Despite the inconsistencies of the team altogether, the Cubs have gotten their offense closer to 2008 levels than 2009 levels.  The Cubs have (MLB rank followed by NL rank): 148 runs scored (10th of 30, 5th of 16), 280 hits (7th, 4th), 37 HR (5th, 2nd), 455 Total Bases (5th, 3rd), 146 RBI (7th, 4th), .273 BA (7th, 3rd), .348 OBP (6th, 2nd), .444 SLG PCT (6th, 3rd), and 113 BB (9th, 4th).

I mentioned in an earlier post that center field is the most important position on the field, in my opinion.  The Cubs haven't really had great leaders at center the last few years (Corey Patterson, Juan Pierre, Jacque Jones, Felix Pie, Jim Edmonds, and Kosuke Fukudome), even if some were good players.  Byrd is an aggressive player and undoubtedly the commander the outfield.  When you have a guy like that, it spreads and everyone wants to be in on the fun.  Tyler Colvin must be getting a lesson from him and regulars Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano must be enjoying themselves more than before.  Marlon is such a positive influence I bet he would increase 'Fun' for the Cubs if that was a baseball stat.  Go Cubs! 

Moody Bats

Even though they don't get any days off on weekends, the Cubs appear to enjoy sitting back and hitting over those series for the past two weeks.  After Kosuke Fukudome's first career grand slam represented the only hope in a 13-5 blowout loss on Thursday, the Cubs rebounded with three really solid wins over the weekend against the scuffling DBacks.  Alfonso Soriano got on one of his famous tears not seen since last May and contributed each day to the 11-5, 7-5, and 10-5 final scores with at least a homer in each game.  The pitching wasn't exactly great, but good and when the offense is hitting like they had then it isn't as important.  Doing what needs to be done to win is the most important thing.  If we give up 9 runs in a game, the assumption is that was a failure.  If the Cubs score 10 in that game and win, though, it's a success although obviously more must be done by the pitchers.  The Cubs did that this weekend.  The bottom line: Despite not playing perfect baseball (see: Milwaukee Massacre), the Cubs are doing plenty to win games and enough to sustain their methods all season.

Well, the Cubs just have to go out and play so well in front of the home fans only to take a day off and then just score two against the lowly Pirates at PNC Park.  I don't know when the bats will decide to stick around permanently, but it's clear that the way the Cubs play ball requires offense.  Home runs by Soriano and Geovany Soto were our only offense and that just isn't acceptable.  Mike Fontenot, most overrated player on the Cubs (don't worry, you'll be hearing more about him later) struck out to begin the 9th and the Cubs failed to create a rally.  Another good outing by Ryan Dempster was wasted and apparently he was outdueled by consistent old Paul Maholm.  Charlie Morton, starter for Wednesday's game, is a ticking bomb every inning out there because it's only a matter of time until the opponent's hitters clobber baseballs that look fatter than a beach ball out there.  Ted Lilly is on for us.

Coming soon are posts about Marlon Byrd (Wrigleyville's new spark plug) and why it's time to jump on the surprise bandwagon of the year: the Washington Nationals.  Go Cubs!   

Milwaukee Massacre

For the second time in three years, the Cubs have brought down Miller Park (Wrigley Field North).  I haven't ever seen the Cubs beaten this badly, but still I don't have much sympathy for the Brewers.  They are the team with the big, league-leader type stars and they are always labeled as underrated.  They can hit but they can't pitch, the type that fans like but those teams can become frustrating.  8-1, 5-1, and 12-2 the final scores, the Cubs outscoring them 25-4.  Each game was a blowout and the pitching was unbelievably good.  The Cubs pitching has certainly been a strength and they showed it in Milwaukee.  This was the weekend that they put everything together.  Tyler Colvin and Kosuke Fukudome both had two homers over the weekend, and Derrek Lee and Geovany Soto each added one on Sunday.  Carlos Zambrano allowed a run in his relief appearance, but it didn't matter and he otherwise looked sharp.  I really had a hard time seeing the Cubs rotation being as good as they used to be with Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Harden, and Marquis of 2008, by far the best rotation the Cubs have put out in decades.  With only two of those remaining, I thought the rotation wouldn't be as good, but it has been amazing lately.  Like I said, everything is coming together.  This is the way the Cubs need to win baseball games this season: great pitching, good, patient offense, and efficient defense.  We have an easy part of the schedule coming up, with Washington, Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati over the next two weeks.  I see us coming out in first.

Chicago teams (Cubs, White Sox) went 6-0 over the weekend with different styles of play.  The Sox won on three go-ahead homers in the 8th or 9th, first a walk-off by Andruw Jones, then a walk-off by Alex Rios, then a go-ahead homer in the 8th by Paul Konerko.  Despite their attempts at smallball, I think this will be the same fill-em-up-and-homer-em-in team that they have been for so long.  Konerko has been a nice surprise for them, but they do have plenty of struggles.  Jake Peavy can no longer pitch.  One thing I know for sure, is that Seattle isn't too happy with their bullpen.

Time Machine

How the Cubs have played the last three days (not including tonight at the Mets) represents the last three years of Cubs baseball.  On Friday, the Cubs won 7-2 on strong offense and good pitching.  The Cubs did all the fundamental things right, coming through in big spots and playing good defense.  There was one error in right center on a misunderstanding between Fukudome and Byrd, but they laughed it off and prevented major damage.  Even not being a notably good team defensively in 2008, they were able to kept the errors to minimal damage, like was done here.  Soriano made two very nice plays with confidence, the first good indication of his fielding ability all season.  The Cubs offense was a little quiet until they were able to put together a nice rally in the 7th including a creative safety squeeze from Ryan Theriot and then the Cubs hitters were patient leading up to Derrek Lee's big three-run homer.  The Cubs won, and all fans in Wrigleyville were more than content with this new style.  For a day.  Of course, the Cubs couldn't just keep it going, they had to add more questions to the list that had momentarily stopped growing.  On Saturday, the Cubs played 2009 baseball in that the offense was held dormant by a good pitcher in Roy Oswalt and the late comeback attempt wasn't enough.  Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Gray couldn't stop what was the worst offense in the league up to then.  Who do the Astros have that could possibly cause them trouble?  I'm pretty sure J.R. Towles, Chris Johnson, and Jeff Keppinger wouldn't have been your top answers.  Yet there is Towles, the supposed future behind the plate in Houston, hitting a home run while the Cubs can't score.  On Sunday, we saw what the Cubs have shown again and again in this young season.  Ryan Dempster pitched an excellent outing and held a 2-0 lead going into the eighth, but Jeff Keppinger was there again to knock in a run.  However, the Cubs got out of it and it looked like they would hang on to win.  But in the 9th for the first time, it was Carlos Marmol who blew the lead to Geoff Blum (ugh...) on a double.  Of course, the offense is still hush since Marlon Byrd's two-run single in the 3rd.  Sean Marshall allows Pedro Feliz a sac fly, and Matt Lindstrom saves his second straight.  We all got to see a little brief history of the Cubs, depressingly so.  I've learned a lot in my 11 years as a baseball fan (ever since I learned the rules) and 4 years as an intense fan.  I've learned that many times, no matter how frustrating it was for your team, you just have to tip your cap to the other club.  This was not one of those instances.  I used to love the Houston Astros franchise, but the blunt lack of talent on the squad is an inevitable result of a horrible minor league system and a veteran-laden roster.  They have no business marching into Wrigley Field at 1-8 and taking two of three from a team that should win 90 games.   

Cubs Positional Breakdown: Outfield

LF: Alfonso Soriano
Entering the 4th year of his enormous contract, Soriano is still looking for a full season.  Cub Nation has been very disappointed in the former 40-40 outfielder.  Playing just 135, 109, and 117 games in the last three years, respectively, he has only put up 82 HR and 47 SB.  He has also become a liability in left field.  His infamous hop catch has become the subject of much controversy surrounding his injury risk and arm.  His bat is prone to hot and cold streaks.  I have liked Soriano from the day he was signed, but have frequently been frustrated with him.  His bat is very potent and I think he should not be in the #6 spot in the batting order.  Leadoff isn't the answer either, but I just think #6 is too low.  This will be the most important season yet for Alfonso to produce before he loses all faith from the Cubs.

CF: Marlon Byrd
Byrd, nearly acquired before the 2009 season, is a fantastic replacement in the clubhouse for Milton Bradley.  A more reliable power bat, Byrd can also surprise everybody with slick defense by a big guy in center.  He will even steal a few bases.  I really like this signing because it is a perfect fit for the Cubs.  His deal was not outrageously expensive while the center field prospects can still be given plenty of time.  From what I've seen, Byrd's swing appears more slump-proof than that of Soriano's or Kosuke Fukudome's.  He can be a guy to keep the offense moving when everyone else is stuck, kind of like how Jeff Baker does.

RF: Kosuke Fukudome
A former MVP from Japan, Fukudome has yet to live up to his contract.  He had an 'effective' year by most fans' standards, but I have not seen enough.  In Japan, he used to be a 25 HR, 100 RBI, .300 AVG player but has yet to come close to any of those stats in America.  Fukudome has targeted a .300 AVG for his goal this year, but what about the power?  Fantasy-wise, Kosuke offers little to no value.  On the Cubs, he has offered great defense and a strong arm, but no power and some hitting slumps.

UTIL: Xavier Nady
Nady, a 25 HR hitter in 2008 with the Pirates and Yankees, was the perfect choice for a fourth outfielder.  He is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, so it is good that we aren't relying on him to be an everyday outfielder.  If he does in fact stay injured, we have a surplus of minor league outfielders ready to make the leap.  Nady is still a notorious BP hitter who lauches fly balls out.  His fly ball hitting style will be welcomed at Wrigley Field.

UTIL/AAA: Tyler Colvin
Colvin definitely got on the Cubs radar when he got a late call up in September.  He also put on some pounds to increase his power output, possibly the only flaw in his game.  He can steal some bases and impress in the field.  I haven't seen much of this guy, but his reports sound good.  I say bring him up!  He is in competition with Sam Fuld for the fifth outfielder spot.  I give the spot to Colvin.  Find out why in Fuld's description.  Colvin should be a ready and able fifth outfielder for the Cubs who all of a sudden have more outfield depth than they've had in at least a decade.  Look for him as a spot starter and late inning replacement.


UTIL/AAA: Sam Fuld
Fuld saw more time with the Cubs than Colvin did in 2009, all the more reason for Colvin to get more time.  However, Fuld will make it a tough decision for Lou Piniella and the Cubs brass.  Easily the best defensive outfielder for at least the last half decade on the Cubs, Fuld also surprised some with an average that hung around .300 for his limited at-bats.  He played in 65 games for 97 at-bats with great plate discipline but only two RBI, both of which were collected in the same game.  He will need to improve on that number.  I think with the outfield bench logjam of Nady, Colvin, and Fuld, I think that unless Fuld can move to another position or become a Mark DeRosa-type utility player, he doesn't fit into the 2010 Cubs puzzle, but I do hope to see him around in the future.