Fit For a Prince, Or Was Yu da Man?

Prince Fielder would a better player to
build around than Yu Darvish.

Cubs pursuing first baseman Prince Fielder and pursued starter Yu Darvish; which move would have made more sense?


Two of the top free agents remaining in the winter free agent pool were being actively pursued by the Cubs, at least until one of them fell off the board officially earlier today.  Darvish, 25, is a right-handed starter who was the ace of the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan since 2007 (his first full season), going 93-38 over seven total seasons.  Fielder, 27, is the big man from Milwaukee already known for his 230 career homers and supposed weight of 275 pounds (does anyone believe that?).  The Cubs have, through outside reports or press releases, made aggressive strides towards acquiring both.  It appeared before and still does now that getting both was not within the real of possibility for Theo & Co, which leaves the main question; which one actually helps the Cubs more in the short-term and long-term?

Although a great pitcher, no one knows how
well Yu Darvish will adjust to MLB hitters.

If you think the answer is Darvish, unfortunately we'll never find out how accurate that estimation is.  The Texas Rangers (UPDATED) won the exclusive bidding rights for Darvish and now will be the only team with a chance to sign him.  This doesn't mean he is now a Ranger, but it does mean that if Darvish is playing in MLB next season, it can now only be with Texas.  If the Rangers don't work out a deal with him, which is highly unlikely, I think he returns to Japan.  Now it's up to Rangers GM Jon Daniels and the rest of the Texas staff to work out a contract with him.  The Cubs, Yankees, and Blue Jays also placed bids for negotiating rights, but the Rangers appear to be the highest bider.

The negotiating rights process Darvish is going through is very similar to that of Daisuke Matsuzaka when the Red Sox won the negotiating rights for him in the 2006/07 offseason.  Matsuzaka, who was also pursued by the Yankees, signed with the Red Sox after they won negotiating rights, the two deals (negotiating rights and contract) coming at a combined price tag of over $100 million.  Dice-K has been a major disappointment for Boston and has caused plenty of second-guessing in the Darvish sweepstakes.

Matsuzaka was 26 when he signed, and he was hailed as the future ace of the Red Sox, an international star who would only dominate even more with the move to the United States.  How could American hitters possibly solve a pitcher with eight different pitches, analysts pondered.  Apparently they have, and five years into his Red Sox career he has given them just 49 wins on a stunningly mediocre 4.25 ERA.  He has missed significant time to injury each of the last three seasons.

Although Darvish's mechanics and pure 'stuff' would suggest otherwise, he could perform similarly.  At the time of his signing, Darvish was coming off five straight seasons with an ERA under 2.00 in Japan.  At the time of his, Matsuzaka was coming off four straight seasons with an ERA under 3.00.  One would hope Darvish will have more success, and his blistering fastball, drop-dead 12-6 curveball and physics-defying slider would suggest so.  But the possibility lingers that Darvish, like Matsuzaka, will struggle to adapt to American hitters who are more patient and skilled than ones he has faced before, especially in the power department.

Fielder brings a very different type of energy to the team.  Fielder is a known commodity in MLB and especially to Cubs fans who have been watching him grow over the past half-decade.  Since a breakout 50-homer season in 2007, he has been all over the league launching bombs with great regularity and positive swagger.  During the Winter Meetings a friend of his leaked that Fielder is most interested in playing for the Cubs than any of the other suitors, which include the Mariners, Nationals, and possibly Texas.  Then why, you ask, is a deal takin' so dang long?!  First of all, he's a Scott Boras client.  Boras has no problem running out the clock on teams to earn his clients each and every penny that they're "due".  Secondly, the Cubs have been non-committal about Fielder to the media so their interest level throughout the process has probably varied.  The Cubs are now in the mix, but a deal with Boras isn't going to be struck overnight.  We certainly won't see anything like the Albert Pujols-to-Anaheim deal, which saw the Angels make initial contact with Pujols just 36 hours before signing one of the most pivotal contracts in baseball history.

If trying to browse through media to gauge the Cubs' level of interest on Fielder, you're probably getting a lot of crossing signals.  Yes, it's very confusing at this point.  Many things I've heard say the Cubs are involved and in pursuit with intent to sign, while others, like manager Dale Sveum, have come out and said the Cubs are not involved at all.  In my opinion, Sveum is either surprisingly unaware of what his front office is up to or trying to do a cover-up job, and a bad one at that.  He said the Cubs organization has had no contact at all with Fielder, which is definitely untrue.

Whichever way you put it though, the Cubs have had serious interest in both.  In my opinion, the Cubs would be better off with Fielder instead of Darvish.  The fair criticism of Darvish in comparison to Matsuzaka and other recent Japanese pitchers who have fizzled is evidence enough that although he looks impressive now, the transition to MLB hitters is very tough.  This means dishing out big bucks to Darvish is a very volatile move, and if he can't get it together, the Cubs are stuck with another big contract that they don't want.

Even though Fielder also presents the obvious risk of an big contract and is no man invincible to natural decline with age, the level of risk is significantly lower.  If the Cubs had won Darvish, his new team would be thousands of miles away and his new competition would be far better.  If Fielder could track down one of those long-distance suburban taxi companies between Chicago and Milwaukee, he could probably take a cab from Miller Park to his new home at Wrigley.  He would be in the same division and same league, so for him the focus would basically be to continue what he has already been doing his whole career.

Also, what statement does the signing make?  If the Cubs were actually in full rebuilding mode, they would not even be considering these two top free agents.  Because the Cubs are the Cubs, however, and wreak the benefits of being a large-market team and are really the most famous franchise in the National League, they can afford to sign a superstar to build around, which can either accelerate the rebuilding process or send it backwards a few steps.  I think Fielder would be a great character to build around and bring stability to a position that demands it especially after the loss of Aramis Ramirez to those Brewers.

Darvish would have far too many immediate obstacles to become a team leader to build around.  The language barrier is a major obstacle, and a bust deal would reverse the depth issue because the Cubs would have to pay double-digit millions per year for a bad starter eating a rotation spot, similar to Matsuzaka's recent role with the Red Sox.  Although rotation depth is a major problem for the Cubs right now, this was not the right opportunity to fix it.  Thankfully the Cubs have taken a good step in finding rotation depth as they are now talking to Paul Maholm about a contract.  Other targets I would explore are Edwin Jackson, Javier Vazquez, Jon Garland, and Roy Oswalt.

So finally, Prince Fielder is the guy to build around if there is one between these two.  The Rangers winning Darvish rights may not be a bad thing; it prevents possibility of the Cubs making a deal far too volatile for their current losing situation.          

Competitive Balance in Economics

There are 30 MLB teams.  By the rules and nature of baseball, all teams have an equal shot to win.  By the rules and nature of business, some teams are favored more than others.  In today's world, the industry that is professional sports is a business.  As unfortunate as it is, this means every team in MLB has different odds to win.  Since their is no salary cap in baseball, it's all about the revenue.  And a team's success or failure in generating revenue can and most likely will dictate their ability to win.  If you're a serious baseball fan, chances are you've heard of Billy Beane, GM of the Oakland Athletics.  The reason Beane is famous is because of his groundbreaking theories about baseball economics, revolutionary thoughts that have become relevant with the big contracts and free agency dogfights of modern baseball.  If Beane were the GM of the New York Yankees, he would not be characterized as the godfather of modern baseball economics.  Oakland is a tiny city compared to the other jumbo markets of baseball, making Beane's job much harder than a GM in a bigger city.

Small market teams have it tough.  Most small market teams put a strong emphasis on building from within their own system, putting a lot of work in the scouting and development department.  When these teams come up with big prospects they are unable to sign them to extensions and they are lost to the big market teams.  Even if they are able to sign the player to an extension, what happens if the team is losing?  The team has no choice but to rebuild, which means sending the prospect-turned-star to the big market teams.  There are a few ways for it to happen, but in the end, the star ends up with the big market teams more often than they should.

Prime examples of this can be found on the current big market teams.  Remember that super rotation the Phillies will put out on the mound in 2011?  Let's see where those guys came from.  Roy Oswalt was a huge star in Houston, nearly setting the franchise wins record before being traded.  Roy Halladay was a big star in Toronto, a well-publicized one at that.  Halladay took home the 2003 AL Cy Young Award, while Cliff Lee took home the same award in 2008 with Cleveland.  While Lee struggled with injuries during times in Cleveland, it was clear even before 2008 that he had the capability to be an elite pitcher.  Cole Hamels, the fourth man in this super rotation, is the only product of the Phillies system.

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, clearly in control of a big market team, snagged two of baseball's best players from small markets this offseason.  Acquiring Adrian Gonzalez out of San Diego and Carl Crawford from Tampa Bay, he has now dealt a huge blow to both franchises.  Without Gonzalez, the Padres are no longer a playoff contender and without Crawford, the Rays aren't either.  The word 'disappointment' can't even begin to describe how fans must feel this winter in San Diego and St. Petersburg, respectively.

Let's read down the current Yankee lineup.  At catcher we have Russell Martin, just acquired from the Dodgers.  At first base we have Mark Teixeira, big time power first baseman for the Rangers before being dealt to two pit stops in between.  Teixeira isn't the only name here with an enormous contract.  At second base and shortstop, we have Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter, respectively.  There are two genuine Yankees; good for them.  At third is, and I know its been a while, the most hyped prospect in the history of baseball- with the 1995 Seattle Mariners.  In right field we have Nick Swisher, who got his fame launching bombs out of the Oakland Coliseum.  In center, the five tooled Curtis Granderson came from Detroit.  In left is Brett Gardner, one final genuine Yankee.

The Yankees World Championship team of 2009 featured only two full season homegrown starters, while the top two (C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett) came from Cleveland and Toronto, respectively.  The Yankees, not surprisingly, have been to the World Series more than any other team and have won more than any other team.  From 2001-2010, a ten year stretch, 15 different teams made the World Series, with only the Yankees, Giants, Phillies, Red Sox, and Cardinals having been more than once.  Many baseball experts interpret this to mean that competitive balance in baseball is higher than it ever has been, but I don't think this is exactly the case.  Don't get me wrong- competitive balance is certainly high and we've seen a lot of small market success stories recently, but the problem is sustaining the team that got them there.

The surprising but lovable 2003 Marlins team that upset the Yankees to win the World Series was an example of how these teams can win, but can't be sustained in a market like Southeast Florida.  The 2003 heroes of ace Josh Beckett, center fielder Juan Pierre, second baseman Luis Castillo, starter Brad Penny, starter Carl Pavano, first baseman Derrek Lee, and third baseman Mike Lowell were all off the Marlins by 2006, signing with or being traded to the Red Sox, Cubs, Twins, Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, and Red Sox respectively.  Franchise faces from 2003 third baseman Miguel Cabrera and ace Dontrelle Willis would both be gone just a season later in a trade to Detroit.  In fact, Cabrera and Willis were the only players on the 2006 Opening Day roster remaining from the 2003 team.

The Marlins have become known for frequently executing a relatively modern tactic known as the firesale.  The firesale is an instant rebuilding strategy, seen in small markets who have an excellent young core of winning players with low salaries who have yet to cash in a big contract.  The small market team must commit to a firesale because, with lower revenue the market generates than big market teams like the Yankees, the team is not in a financial position to keep the players long term once they become free agents and demand large contracts.  If the players are traded before they hit free agency, then the team can rebuild using the prospect returns from those trades instead of getting nothing back.  The disassembling of the 2003 squad was the second most famous such firesale, the most famous being after the 1997 World Champion Marlins were disassembled to become an 108-loss team just the very next season, setting a record for the most losses in a season following a championship.

No team can execute a firesale better than the Florida Marlins, but this raises a question.  How many other teams would need to execute a firesale?  The answer is not many.  The 1997 Marlins won the World Series with the 5th highest payroll in the league, a very rare figure for them, and fell to 27th the very next year.  The Marlins started new players at all eight position player spots!  Meanwhile, the 1996 Yankees won the World Series with some of the key players being shortstop Derek Jeter, closer Mariano Rivera, and ace Andy Pettitte.  The Yankees next won the World Series in 1998, and by then power hitting catcher Jorge Posada had joined the key players.  In 2009, eleven years and around $488 million later, Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, and Posada all remained despite Pettitte's three year trip to Houston.  That's alarmingly close to the $581 million the Marlins have spent on players in the entire 18-year history of the franchise!  The Marlins clearly can't compete with that.

An overarching point here is that while many teams have made the World Series in recent years, the small to medium market teams aren't able to sustain the success.  Dynasties are not a thing that can be built by teams like the Marlins.  So it should be not surprise that the team that won six out of eight American League pennants from 1996-2003 was the New York Yankees.  Imagine if the Marlins had signed Moises Alou to a big contract extension after he helped them win the 1997 World Series, and the Marlins were able to take advantage of Alou's 225 career homers after 1997.  Who knows what the Marlins could have done with him as the center foundation for all of their young talent?  Unfortunately, we will never know.

The Florida (soon-to-be Miami) Marlins have hope.  In 2012, the gleaming new retractable roof stadium in Miami's Little Havana neighborhood will open, reinventing the entire franchise.  The new stadium will the kind of revenue the Marlins have never seen, and they will finally be able to sign at least one franchise player for a long time.  For other teams, like the other Florida team in the Tampa Bay Rays, such hope is not so easy to come by.  So for the other financially struggling small to medium market teams out there (the Pirates, Reds, Padres, Royals, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Blue Jays, Athletics), I have some advice.  Don't trust the system; you can't just lay back, play a bunch of rookies and expect a turnaround.  Especially for the Royals and Pirates, a big change is needed if the young players are all duds.  A reinvented scouting and development department is in order, and the team should not be satisfied with the prospects until they are making a difference at the major league level.  For some teams, like the A's, a lack of revenue is hurting the franchise's potential.  In this case, every effort must be done to make the team relevant in the community.  This means having unique promotions to get the fans in the current ballpark and get the fans excited about the team's future.  Also, an increased focus on community outreach from the players should be involved; the community needs to know this isn't an organization utilizing the city, it's an organization representing the city.  Eventually, enough attention should be focused so that the government will help fund a new stadium.

To all small market teams out there, good luck.  Because although winning out of a small market may not be a huge challenge, sustaining it sure as hell is.  And although the Marlins have made the playoffs only twice and have never won their division but won the World Series twice since 1993, I hold more respect towards those accomplishments than I do for the Yankees' 17 playoff appearances and five championships during the same time frame.  After reading all this, I hope you do too.          

Pitching and Defense Reign

First, congratulations to the 2010 San Francisco Giants on winning their first World Series since moving from New York in the 1950s.  Second, how?  I'm not a believer in the phrase 'pitching and defense win championships.'  I guess it worked for the Giants, though, who shut down the Rangers offense in this Series probably making that more important than anything either team did offensively.  Once in Texas, the Giants allowed only five runs in the three games, and the Giants won two of three of those.  The Giants also won the last two games, allowing only one run and scoring seven.  After being shut out only once in the regular season at home (to Dallas Braden of the Oakland A's) in 81 games, Madison Bumgarner shut out the Giants for eight innings before giving way to the bullpen.  The very next night was between Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee and a pitching duel that ensued was supposed to happen in Game 1, but didn't.  Lincecum beat Lee for the second time thanks the Series MVP Edgar Renteria's three-run homer in the 7th inning which put the Rangers away.  The Rangers got one run back, but the bullpen contained the Texas offense that was so key against the Yankees.  Brian Wilson, the closer, came on and struck out Nelson Cruz on a high fastball to end it, doing his trademark cross hand finger pointing before celebrating on the mound with his mobbing teammates.

Main thought about this series and the Giants run: it came out of nowhere.  I didn't feel like the Giants were a serious contender to win it all in the beginning of the postseason, but they did win it with pitching.  This feeling can be compared to the 2006 Cardinals, a team that was awful late in the season and still squeezed into the playoffs.  Somehow, they beat San Diego, New York, and Detroit that fast and won the World Series, although they probably deserved it less than anyone else in the playoffs.  I didn't expect them to win but once they did they were off and running and the sports media swirled and swirled around them, much like the Giants.  They just kept winning and testing everyone's judgment to see how long this thing would keep going.  The Giants beat the Braves in what wasn't an upset, but a series with a lot of historical significance due to Bobby Cox retiring and such.  The Giants certainly upset the Phillies in six games and that was just incredible.  Sports analysts didn't give anyone else in the National League a chance because of the 'Big Three' of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt.  However, this Giants team proved that a team doesn't need big names to pitch well; what they did using Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner was just incredible.  And to that I salute them.  Something else the Giants did really well is come through late in the game in clutch at-bats.  San Francisco scored 12 in the 8th inning combined through the Series, tying the Rangers total output through all innings.  The Giants put up runs in the 7th and/or 8th in every game.  And while the Giants certainly have no stars on offense like the Rangers do in Josh Hamilton and more, it's just a great bunch of guys put together who have talent and give the team great at-bats and do their best to put something together.  It is an all-team production, also known as teamwork.  Plenty of teams in baseball should be taking notes on this, as the wisdom is clearly abundant.

Postseason Preview: World Series

After a one year absence, baseball fans will get their Cinderella team in the World Series again.  Actually, two.  Both the Giants and Rangers weren't given big consideration for the World Series heading into the playoffs, especially considering both were serious underdogs playing for the pennant against the Phillies and Yankees, respectively.  But for the media, the unthinkable has happened.  The 'Big Three' of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels has been beaten in a series nobody foresaw.  The invincible Yankees with their high priced bats and arms fell as the bats were silenced and the arms didn't silence anyone on the Rangers.

On to this World Series.  It will begin in San Francisco on Wednesday night, playing there again the next night before heading off to Texas for three games.  Unfortunately, the schedule just works out so that the Giants barely miss a home game on a Friday, which would have had them wear the orange uniforms in the World Series.  No team has worn an alternate uniform in the World Series since the 2007 Rockies, most teams elect not to for whatever reason.  The first game was a great pitching matchup of Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee, probably not much of a better matchup could be asked for.  The two combined have gone 47.1 innings allowing just seven runs and striking out 64 with six walks.  The key for Cliff Lee is to control the tempo of the game like he usually does and to cool down Cody Ross.  He barely walks anyone so he needs to stick to his gameplan with men on base to avoid a flurry of hits resulting in a momentum shift.  Such momentum shifts, especially in the World Series, often decide the game.  The key for Tim Lincecum is to stay ahead of hitters and beware of the bottom of the lineup.  With these Rangers there are no easy outs except when Cliff Lee will have to bat in Game 1.  Bengie Molina has been huge for Texas batting out of the eight hole so Lincecum needs to control the likes of him and Mitch Moreland, another bat in the bottom who has been hitting well so far in the playoffs at .389.  There is no big bat to be scared of on the Giants, but there are so many guys who can beat you slapping big hits like Freddy Sanchez, Aubrey Huff, Buster Posey, Juan Uribe, and Pablo Sandoval.

Here is my pick.  TEX in 7.  This one will be very back and forth, but here's the order of wins I have: Game 1 is Texas, Game 2 is San Francisco, Game 3 is San Francisco, Game 4 and Game 5 are Texas, Game 6 is San Francisco, and Game 7 is Texas.  Neither team is afraid to win on the road, with both teams combining to go 4-2 in New York and Philadelphia.  The series MVP I believe will be Josh Hamilton, but that is nearly impossible to guess.

I am in the process of making an article for both teams, about what uniqueness has gotten them here.  So come back to read that!

Note: Bengie Molina can't be too disappointed with being traded from a contender.  His former team, the Giants, plays his current team, the Rangers in this World Series.  He earns a World Series ring either way, so it's a literal win-win.  Of course, the ginger ale celebration with his Rangers would be nice, so there's a bonus to that side of the win-win.

Postseason Preview: LCS

So I got three of four series correct in the LDS.   The only one I got wrong was Phillies-Reds, and if I were to get one wrong that would be the one I would want because that was the long shot pick.  The League Championship Series on both sides should be exciting, but I have to admit my attention keeps veering over to the American League.  The Yankees are such a great team and do so much right, yet it's exactly a team like the Rangers that could beat them.  What the Rangers are doing right now is so incredible, and the fans have to be feeling it too.  The weird part is, the Rangers lost two games at home when they could've won the series only to take the finale in St. Petersburg, which wrapped up just a terrible home three game performance by the Rays.  It was the first time in postseason history a road team won every game.  Believe it or not, the Yankees and Rangers aren't all that separated when it comes to pitching.  The national media and MLB Network have mentioned that the Yankees should be glad that the ALDS went on so long for the Rangers, because now Cliff Lee won't start Game 1.  I see this differently.  I think it works out better for the Rangers, because in Game 1 Lee would be going against C.C. Sabathia and that is likely to be a low scoring game, and the Yankees have a better chance of beating Lee there which really hurts the Rangers chances.  It's C.J. Wilson starting Game 1, a 15-game winner whose 3.35 ERA is only 17 points worse than Sabathia's.  Anybody remember Sabathia's postseason struggles in 2007?  How about 2008?  2009 not so much, but it's hard to forget 20 ER in 19 IP with 17 walks and 27 hits over two seasons.  Wilson could easily pitch a good game and, with some run support, steal a win in the first one.  Phil Hughes went 18-8 but had an ERA nearly half a run higher than the less lucky run support recipient Colby Lewis at just 12-13.  That is pretty much an even matchup and could go either way.  Andy Pettitte goes in the third against Lee, and Pettitte's last season injuries may affect his performance.  Lee is on a serious hot streak and can't be stopped, here he gets the nod at home which he didn't have in either of his starts in the ALDS.  That is certainly a winnable game for the Texas Rangers.  They aren't afraid to win on the road.  With the increased intensity of the ALCS, I think the Rangers will also start winning at home now.  I'm going Rangers.  It's more realistic than it seems, as the Yankees will probably overlook them as Michigan would overlook Appalachian State (we all know how that turned out).  TEX in 6.

Over to Philly for Game 1 against San Fran.  Roy Halladay will not throw another no-hitter, and this time the Phillies need to realize their opponent has something the Reds didn't: momentum.  The Reds were sort of cruising along, clinched the title on a big homer then just relaxed until the playoffs.  The Giants are coming off this intense series with Atlanta and then it got emotional at the end with Bobby Cox.  All of this is why the Giants will be excited and setting up an offense against Halladay, if even just a bit.  Tim Lincecum was dominant his first start of the playoffs, and the Giants have a great shot to win if he does that again.  Jonathan Sanchez, not Matt Cain, goes in Game 2.  Interesting move by Bruce Bochy to save his #2 for Game 3 at home, which in my opinion is more important than Game 2 if the other team has home-field advantage.  The Phillies will likely go with Hamels and Oswalt in those spots, or possibly flipped.  I think it matters less to the series because the bottom line is both are real good pitchers.  Real good.  I like the Giants bullpen over the Phillies this season.  They have the setup men in place including a ridiculous run by Ramon Ramirez.  The always consistent Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo are the other two keys guys in play here.  The problem for me is, as much as I want the Giants to win, I know it's unlikely.  There is just too much to ignore with the pitching, and the chances the Giants escape and low scoring pitchers duel is unlikely because, despite the Phillies midseason offense struggles, they still swing the bat much, much better than the Giants.  Aubrey Huff and Buster Posey have all the power responsibility on their shoulders, and that's kind of a lot to ask for an above average vet and rookie.  Ryan Howard had one of the worst years of his career, which isn't saying much, and I think he will struggle in the series because of the power pitching mixed with the offspeed stuff.  With that heat the Giants have, it won't take much to smoke Howard.  Chase Utley is dangerous and pesky, while the definition of pesky is Shane Victorino.  The other offensive weapons in Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, and Jimmy Rollins do many things right.  The Giants were also not afraid to win on the road, so home field advantage may be overrated this year (home teams went 8-12 in the LDS).  PHI in 5.

Note: Goodbye, Bobby Cox.  I'm not sure what to make of the Braves hiring Fredi Gonzalez that very next day, though.  A great hire, but I'm not sure about the timing.  It's like they were trying to quickly forget about him or something, when I believe now is when the Braves and fans should have some time to reflect on his accomplishments.  In Spring Training some experts said the Braves would manage one last playoff spot for Cox, and I didn't think they could do it.  Hat off to you, Atlanta.

Road Trip Wrapup: Houston, Colorado

Record: 1-5
Final Record: 46-59
Games Behind First: 13 GB

This season probably marks the end of the playoff hopes for the Cubs.  With 57 games remaining and 13 games behind first, there is virtually no chance the Cubs can reach St. Louis and Cincinnati.  This series saw the Cubs do a whole bunch of things wrong and it was quite ugly.

On Monday the Cubs continued on their semi-roll with a 5-2 win improving to 7-4 after the break.  Carlos Silva, who had been just 1-4 in his last five decisions, got a win and Carlos Marmol closed it out after doubles by Geovany Soto, Marlon Byrd, and Alfonso Soriano collectively drove in four runs.  The most notable scoring on the night, however, was when in the 6th Ryan Theriot, wearing his socks high for a change of pace, homered to left center.  The homer was his first in 2010 and first since June 2009.  The next night Ted Lilly made his last start as a Cub and sadly it was a loss even though he got a no-decision.  Getting the worst run support in the major leagues, Lilly got none on this night while he was in and had to hang around for 5.2 innings before the Astros started scoring.  The Astros got two in the seventh before Lance Berkman hit a grand slam to open it wide open.  Being a face of the franchise for many years, that would be Berkman's last homer as an Astro before he was traded to the Yankees on Saturday.  A Tyler Colvin homer was the only damage the Cubs could muster against Brett Myers who threw a complete game.  Myers has been terrific for Houston, going at least six innings in every start this season.  Surprisingly, he was not traded but rather will become the ace of the staff after Roy Oswalt's Thursday trade to the Phillies for J.A. Happ and other prospects.  In the finale Randy Wells gave up three of the eight runs the Astros would score in the final three innings.  Carlos Lee hit two homers, including one off the foul pole that sent the fans home with chicken due to a local promotion.  The Astros took two of three.

Friday night in Colorado was all about making history.  That meaning the Rockies scoring 12 in one inning.  After an Ian Stewart homer that cleaned the bases obviously, the Rockies put up five more.  12 in total.  12!  Rockies win 17-2.  Carlos Gonzalez will remember the game Saturday night for his entire life, hitting a walk-off homer that completed the cycle.  Impressively, the Cubs rallied to tie it at five from a huge Derrek Lee homer.  However, the second Rockies cycle in as many years against the Cubs (Troy Tulowitzki did it last year) powered the Rockies to another win.  Carlos Silva was removed in the first inning with an irregular heartbeat and that accurately describes the state of the Cubs right now.  The Rockies got two in that inning before Blake DeWitt, the newest Cub, stepped in in the top of the 2nd.  He hit an RBI double off the wall in right field, putting the Cubs on the board in his first Cubs at-bat.  It was a blowout at 8-1 by the fifth in the Rockies' favor, but the Cubs put together a mad rally.  Alfonso Soriano's solo homer in the 8th put the Cubs within four at 8-4 and the Cubs might have tied it in the 9th if not for Dexter Fowler, who stole Soriano from extra bases.  Byrd scored on the sac fly anyway, but Soriano probably would have made third with the carom of the ball back the center field.  Soriano would have been the tying run.  The Cubs couldn't finish the rally, and were swept.

The only thing I was impressed with on this trip was their ability to rally showed in the last two games in Colorado.  I am a big fan of that because it makes the other team uncomfortable.  You don't want the other team to be able to sit back and relax and not worry if they make stupid mistakes.  Also, this is a huge team confidence and morale builder even if the game is not won.  Everything else about this trip was terrible.  The playoff hopes, slim at the start of the trip, and now gone.  I will make a post soon about the horrible trade that sent Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Blake DeWitt and two minor leaguers.  I was quite sad at the deal and I was very surprised that Theriot was traded.  To find out why, read the upcoming post which should be posted in anytime from tomorrow to a couple of days from now.    

Time Machine

How the Cubs have played the last three days (not including tonight at the Mets) represents the last three years of Cubs baseball.  On Friday, the Cubs won 7-2 on strong offense and good pitching.  The Cubs did all the fundamental things right, coming through in big spots and playing good defense.  There was one error in right center on a misunderstanding between Fukudome and Byrd, but they laughed it off and prevented major damage.  Even not being a notably good team defensively in 2008, they were able to kept the errors to minimal damage, like was done here.  Soriano made two very nice plays with confidence, the first good indication of his fielding ability all season.  The Cubs offense was a little quiet until they were able to put together a nice rally in the 7th including a creative safety squeeze from Ryan Theriot and then the Cubs hitters were patient leading up to Derrek Lee's big three-run homer.  The Cubs won, and all fans in Wrigleyville were more than content with this new style.  For a day.  Of course, the Cubs couldn't just keep it going, they had to add more questions to the list that had momentarily stopped growing.  On Saturday, the Cubs played 2009 baseball in that the offense was held dormant by a good pitcher in Roy Oswalt and the late comeback attempt wasn't enough.  Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Gray couldn't stop what was the worst offense in the league up to then.  Who do the Astros have that could possibly cause them trouble?  I'm pretty sure J.R. Towles, Chris Johnson, and Jeff Keppinger wouldn't have been your top answers.  Yet there is Towles, the supposed future behind the plate in Houston, hitting a home run while the Cubs can't score.  On Sunday, we saw what the Cubs have shown again and again in this young season.  Ryan Dempster pitched an excellent outing and held a 2-0 lead going into the eighth, but Jeff Keppinger was there again to knock in a run.  However, the Cubs got out of it and it looked like they would hang on to win.  But in the 9th for the first time, it was Carlos Marmol who blew the lead to Geoff Blum (ugh...) on a double.  Of course, the offense is still hush since Marlon Byrd's two-run single in the 3rd.  Sean Marshall allows Pedro Feliz a sac fly, and Matt Lindstrom saves his second straight.  We all got to see a little brief history of the Cubs, depressingly so.  I've learned a lot in my 11 years as a baseball fan (ever since I learned the rules) and 4 years as an intense fan.  I've learned that many times, no matter how frustrating it was for your team, you just have to tip your cap to the other club.  This was not one of those instances.  I used to love the Houston Astros franchise, but the blunt lack of talent on the squad is an inevitable result of a horrible minor league system and a veteran-laden roster.  They have no business marching into Wrigley Field at 1-8 and taking two of three from a team that should win 90 games.   

Opening Day Aces

13 games, 26 teams, 26 aces.  Those are some stats, but I have some much better: 1,922.  That is the total number of wins from today's Opening Day starters combined.  2,430 is the number of games in a season.  If 1,922 is about 4/5 of 2,430, imagine every game of last season excluding September.  All of those games have been won by one of these starters.  The leader of the group is Roy Halladay, whose 148 wins beats Derek Lowe's 141.  John Lannan of the Nationals has only 20 career wins, lowest on the list narrowly beating Yovani Gallardo's 22, Shawn Marcum's 24 and Scott Feldman's 24.

A few notable starters:
-Jon Garland, now the ace in San Diego, makes the Opening Day start.
-The A's hand the ball to Ben Sheets who hasn't pitched since 2008.
-The Indians give the start to Jake Westbrook who hasn't pitched since May 2008.
-Vicente Padilla starts for the ace-less Dodgers.

The matchups for today (bold games are the matchups I suggest watching):
All times CT, TV listings for Chicago area (if applicable)

Indians (Jake Westbrook)
at White Sox (Mark Buehrle)
1:05 PM  ESPN2, CSN

Phillies (Roy Halladay)
at Nationals (John Lannan)
12:05 PM

Marlins (Josh Johnson)
at Mets (Johan Santana)
12:10 PM

Cardinals (Chris Carpenter)
at Reds (Aaron Harang)
12:10 PM  ESPN

Dodgers (Vicente Padilla)
at Pirates (Zach Duke)
12:35 PM

Blue Jays (Shawn Marcum)
at Rangers (Scott Feldman)
1:05 PM

Tigers (Justin Verlander)
at Royals (Zack Greinke)
3:10 PM

Rockies (Ubaldo Jimenez)
at Brewers (Yovani Gallardo)
1:10 PM

Cubs (Carlos Zambrano)
at Braves (Derek Lowe)
3:10 PM  ESPN, WCIU

Padres (Jon Garland)
at D-Backs (Dan Haren)
4:10 PM

Giants (Tim Lincecum)
at Astros (Roy Oswalt)
6:05 PM  ESPN2

Twins (Scott Baker)
at Angels (Jered Weaver)
9:05 PM  ESPN2

Mariners (Felix Hernandez)
at A's (Ben Sheets)
9:05 PM