2012 Cubs Preview: Outfield

You're not doing it right, Alfonso.  When they
say, 'use your head', they don't mean it like that.

Aging bunch to be aided and eventually replaced by younger players

Although the past decade has seen all kinds of changes in the Wrigley outfield, 2012 will not bring drastic changes.  At least, not right away.

For the fifth consecutive season, veteran Alfonso Soriano will man left field (he started 2007 in center).  Soriano takes a lot of criticism for not living up to his gargantuan contract, and most of it is fair.  It was a bad contract to begin with and there's little hope that he'll ever return to the form the Cubs thought they were getting.

In his outstanding 2006 season with the Nationals, his walk year, he became only the fourth player ever to have a 40-40 season with 46 homers and 41 steals.  In five seasons since with the Cubs, he has totaled 54 steals.  In his first two seasons with the Cubs he hit .291 with 62 homers and 38 steals while missing significant time to leg injuries both years.  A reduction in steals was understandable, and the offense was definitely there so Cubs fans remained hopeful.  However, a miserable 2009 showed that he had lost a considerable amount of talent from his glory days with New York and Texas.  From 2009-11 he hit only .248 and averaged about 23 homers per season, a far cry from the 36 he averaged between 2004-06.  He had lost virtually all speed, stealing just 16 bases between 2009-11.

Add all of those offensive woes to his already bad defense, and you've got an average to below-average player making $20 million per year now.  Soriano flashed early power least season before again fading into the mediocrity Cubs fans have become accustomed to.  It was almost a tease, but he could do it again and give the Cubs a legitimate power threat.  He's not hard to get out because he still chases the sliders too much.  26 homers and 88 RBIs, however, aren't that bad if you ignore the average, contract, and defense.  That's only one home run less than Adrian Gonzalez's total of 27, and as many RBIs as Justin Upton produced last season.

Center fielder Marlon Byrd

Despite all the negatives around Soriano, he represents the biggest power threat in this outfield.  The starting center fielder, Marlon Byrd, enters his third season with the Cubs and the final one on his contract.  Byrd is 34 and definitely declining offensively, bringing disappointing power and speed skills for a center fielder.  He is a fan favorite for his effort and defensive hustle, and those may get even better this season.  You see, Byrd lost about 40 pounds this offseason so the size comparisons to an NFL linebacker will most definitely not be heard anymore.  That's all good and well, but it won't make him any more valuable offensively where, frankly, he's lacking.

The starting right fielder will be newcomer David DeJesus.  DeJesus, like Soriano and Byrd, is on the wrong side of 30 although he is the youngest of the group at 32.  If there's one thing that has defined his career so far, it's been his ability to get on base.  He has a career .356 OBP with a career high of .384 from 2010.  Playing all but one year of his career with the Royals, he has virtually no winning experience.  Not even a year with Oakland in 2011 could change that.

Right fielder David DeJesus

DeJesus does not have great size at 5'11", 190 lbs., but he's a nice, athletic player defensively.  I'm unsure about his arm, and I hope to see more during Spring Training.  Offensively, his power is about a tick below Byrd's, but I would take DeJesus over Byrd because DeJesus is a lefty who makes better contact (never striking out more than 87 times in a season), is more patient, and has a more compact, fluid swing.  DeJesus is a low ball hitter who spreads line drives to all fields well.  I was skeptical at first because DeJesus is somewhat average in all five tools for outfielders, but he's a solid lefty bat with enough skills defensively to play a respectable right field.  I'm content with him in right.

Now for the backups, part-timers, and call-ups.  Bryan LaHair will presumably get some innings if not a few starts in the outfield after he started most of his major league games in right field last September.  For a breakdown of his play, see the post below as he's also the starting first baseman.  Ahead of him on the depth chart, however, are Tony Campana and Reed Johnson.

Speedy fourth outfielder Tony Campana

Campana, 25, has apparently changed his jersey number to #1 for this season and beyond after Kosuke Fukudome's departure left the number vacated.  Although Campana isn't actually '#1' as in most valuable on this team, he could prove to be pretty close to it by the end of the season.  Manager Dale Sveum said at the Cubs Convention that he wants to have a more athletic team that steals more bases.  Well, Dale, it's going to be hard to do that looking at the roster here, as the Cubs finished 2011 with the third-fewest steals in the league.  Campana, however, accounted for 24 of the Cubs' 69 team steals.  He was also only caught twice, giving him one of the best stolen-base ratios in the league.

The dude is seriously undersized at 5'8", 165 lbs., but he does play superb defense and hustles like no one else on the roster.  His 'baseball kid' character shines through in a way reminiscent of former outfield utilityman Sam Fuld, but Campana brings the blazing speed Fuld didn't have on the basepaths.  In the minors, Campana has stolen up to 66 bases.  If he wants to use that speed in the majors, however, he'll have to prove he can get on base consistently.

Johnson, 35, never had speed anywhere close to Campana's.  If you've seen Johnson chase down a dropping fly ball in left field, however, you might not have known that.  Reed is also a definite fan favorite for his commitment to defensive play.  It's not even that Johnson has some rocket arm he can show off to the fans; rather, he just hustles to every fly ball and looks like a complete natural diving for the ball, showing no fear.  This kind of effort is what the fans want to see, and it was lacking on the 2011 team; especially from the player Johnson usually replaced in the late innings, Soriano.

Backup outfielder Reed Johnson

Johnson had a great offensive season in 2011, hitting .309 and even throwing in a walk-off homer.  He's a great high-ball hitter who hits fastballs and changeups well, and he uses the entire strike zone.  He is, however, a dead righty pull hitter.  The lefty Campana uses the entire field with more regularity despite the fact that Johnson is a more experienced hitter overall.  In a post over a month ago I disagreed with the decision to resign Johnson, preferring Campana to be the primary fourth outfielder.  Now that the Cubs have signed him, however, they're bound to give him at least a bit of playing time.

Unless Soriano or Byrd are traded midseason, there is little chance that Johnson and Campana both remain on the major league roster all season.  That's because top prospect Brett Jackson will probably debut sometime this season.  Jackson was the organization's top draft pick in 2009 and so far the high status has paid off as he's been great in the minor leagues.  The lefty-batting Jackson has 20-20 potential with solid defensive skills, projecting as the Cubs' future starting center fielder.  I discussed Jackson more in-depth in my post on top prospects recently, read more about him here.

There's no doubt the outfield for the Cubs is an aging group right now.  It's going to change a lot in the next few years, however, as I think Soriano and Byrd will both be gone by this time next season.  Jackson should be the starting center fielder for years to come, and prospects Matt Szczur and Reggie Golden, neither of whom will debut in the majors this season, will play major roles in for the big league Cubs in a few years barring trades or free agent signings.  The key question for the current group of Soriano, Byrd, and DeJesus is how much value is still left in these aging veterans?  Can Soriano hit for a high enough average to make himself valuable in the trade market?  Can Byrd stay healthy and prove his weight loss expands his abilities and delays his aging process?  Can DeJesus fully recover from a bad season in Oakland last year?

North Side Newcomers

Jackson, Vitters highlight prospects that could debut at Wrigley this summer

From this point forward, more videos will be featured on the Cubs Insider blog.  I hope to use this technique to give readers visual representation of my ramblings.  Like what you see?  Hopefully you'll be seeing a lot more of it as these guys get called up.  The video you see above is top prospect center fielder Brett Jackson talking about being on the 2010 USA team.  Jackson will most definitely debut at Wrigley Field this summer at some point.  Here I run through a few others who will probably arrive at Wrigley for the first time as prospects, with their highest level of ball reached in parentheses.

Brett Jackson, CF (AAA)

Jackson, the Cubs' top prospect according to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo, played 2011 with the AA Tennessee Smokies and AAA Iowa Cubs for a combined 20-20 season in only 115 games.  He batted .274 but walked 73 times, contributing to his .379 OBP which is a great mark even for a center fielder.  The power continues to develop as the 20 home runs were a career high in professional ball.  The keys the make Jackson such a great prospect certainly include the power-speed dual threat, good fielding range, and a versatile lefty batting approach (he strikes out in the video, but it's a reference point to see his swing).



Josh Vitters, 3B (AA)

If you're a hardcore Cubs fan, you're probably getting tired of hearing about Vitters.  But do not fear, as Vitters is coming off his best season in the minors.  After an awful 2010 where he looked lost in AA ball, he rebounded nicely there with a .283 average and 81 RBIs.  The power is still developing and the patience will have to if he's going to make it all the way, but I think a move to AAA will ultimately determine whether or not he really knows how to adjust to more advanced levels of pitching.  He could start the season in Iowa, and I believe barring any injuries or Adam Dunn-type bad seasons, Vitters will get a September call-up at least.  Take a look at Vitters singling off Marlins pitcher Alex Sanabia.  

Brad Snyder, CF (MLB)

This is not one of the prospects you'll hear about if you do research on the Cubs top prospects, even though in 2010 he hit .308 with a .381 OBP with 25 home runs, 19 steals, and 106 RBIs all at AAA!  So why isn't he a top prospect in the same category as Jackson?!  Well, simply put, he's 29.  Snyder has been a real fine prospect with power and speed in the outfield since 2005 in the Indians organization.  I believe he came over in the Mark DeRosa deal on New Year's Day of 2009, but the Cubs still have only given him 36 major league at-bats betwen 2010 and 2011.  I hope we get to see what he can do, and I think he'll get the chance once Alfonso Soriano or Marlon Byrd is traded this year (yes, I'm still sticking to that).  Play the video for an Eddie Vedder intro.


Robert Coello (MLB)

It barely counts, but Coello debuted for the Red Sox in 2010, pitching in a few games with them before being sent back down then dealt to the Cubs.  He was a highly touted prospect his last year with Boston, and rightfully so with a 9.6 K/9 ratio in his career in the minors.  He regressed a little in 2011 with a 4.19 ERA, but his peripheral stats remained on track with his career averages so I wouldn't be worried.  If Coello can bring the hard stuff in 2012, he'll make it to Wrigley (I hope).  This dude has really flown under the radar so far, but especially the younger generations like my own will appreciate the strikeout stuff.  Cue the Bwostonah (Bostoner) accents.


Back with more prospects soon!  

       

Cubs Trade Tyler Colvin to Rockies; Acquire Ian Stewart

New Cubs third baseman Ian Stewart

The Cubs are shuffling the outfield deck for the second time in a week.  On Thursday afternoon, just as the world was in the midst of Albert Pujols shock, the Cubs and Rox closed the Winter Meetings with a deal that sends Colvin and infielder D.J. LeMahieu to Colorado for Stewart and right-handed reliever Casey Weathers.  The deal comes approximately a week after the Cubs made their first major move of the offseason in signing David DeJesus who is now undoubtedly going to be the everyday right fielder.

At first I was very skeptical of this trade, and I sure didn't expect Colvin to be traded out of our surplus of outfielders.  Before this trade, there were four outfielders that demanded regular playing time: Colvin, Tony Campana, Marlon Byrd, and Alfonso Soriano.  That also doesn't include infrequent visits from Blake DeWitt and prospects soon to arrive like Brett Jackson, who will demand playing time upon arrival.  However, it was Colvin who was dumped.

Ian Stewart has been the Rockies third baseman for about four years, but injuries derailed his 2011 season. At his best in 2009 and 2010, Stewart hit 25 and 18 home runs, respectively, but for a very low average.  He does strikeout plenty but also walks a decent amount, raising his OBP around 80 points higher than his batting average.  He hit only .156 in his 122 at-bats last season without a home run, very similar to Colvin's demise.

Which player will recover more effectively?  I couldn't answer this question, and neither could my quick research, so I turned to the media of all places for some reaction.  MLB Network's Clubhouse Confidential show, which examines the offseason and players via sabermetrics, declared Stewart the better player and more likely to rebound because of his better career walk rate in the minors (.373 career minors OBP compared to Colvin's .315).

The Cubs' top draft pick in 2006, Tyler Colvin's Cubs
career is finished after just 221 games.

Now that we've got that figured out, let's get to the bottom of the minor pieces.  LeMahieu, still only 23, took only two years from being drafted in 2009 to reach the Majors in 2011.  He didn't show much in his brief trial, but his minor league records are more notable.  A .317 career hitter in the minors, his 11% strikeout rate opened plenty of eyes.  Even though he has been a great contact hitter in the minors, that often changes quickly in the Majors against power pitchers never faced before.  LeMahieu was projected to get some playing time at third or around the infield in 2012, but overall, not a big loss.

Weathers, on the other hand, could be a decent pickup for the Cubs.  The 27-year-old Weathers, who has never played under the big league lights before, had major control issues in 2011 at AA Tulsa for the first time in his professional career, walking the same amount he struck out.  He has terrific strikeout stuff, but continued control problems will not make him an asset at all.  The Cubs will just have to hope it was a fluke.  In my initial reaction to the trade, I figured Weathers would stay in AA and AAA for most of the season.  Apparently he's being invited to big league camp in Arizona and will compete for a bullpen spot on the Major League team.  We'll see what happens.

Overall, this is a good trade.  Theo & Co. like guys with a high OBP, and they got another one here.  Stewart plays a decent defensive third base (better than Aramis Ramirez), and his home run balls will reach Sheffield on multiple occasions.  When he really squares up an inside fastball and gulfs a home run, his swing looks pretty awesome.  The loss of LeMahieu isn't anything to stress about, and Weathers has lots of upside.  So we've got that goin' for us, which is nice.

Cubs Sign David DeJesus

Note #1: Like Chicago Cubs Insider on Facebook!  I really haven't done anything with the page until now, but I plan to post it frequently.

Note #2: Through a special baseball seminar I'm taking, a fellow group of students and I got to Skype with Tampa Bay Rays President Matthew Silverman and Director of Baseball Operations Erik Neander.  They talked about how they've achieved such great success in the scouting and development fields (pun intended) and how they've done all of it with the limitations of a small market, including a questionable fan base.  About a possible move, they agreed the Rays "aren't going anywhere" for now and they will have to make the best of their situation.  I asked them a question; after seeing Jeremy Hellickson and Desmond Jennings have great success as rookies in 2011, is there any rookie in particular you are excited to see make an impact on the 2012 Rays?  They said Matt Moore should be a great pitcher especially after the clutch performance he put on late in the season and in the first game in the playoffs.  Interestingly enough, Silverman and Neander said that Moore was more prepared for the big leagues than David Price was when they brought him up for the stretch run in 2008.

And now onto the major Cubs news of the week, the signing of outfielder David DeJesus.  Don't know much about this 5'11", 190 lb. 31-year-old?  I can't blame you.  DeJesus was a mainstay in the Kansas City outfield from 2005 to 2009 before injury and a disappointing season in Oakland in 2011.  Although he has played 1,007 games in his career, none have been against the Cubs.  In fact, the Cubs are the only team he has never played against.  However, he has 40 career RBI against the White Sox (the fourth-most of any opponent) and a .336 career batting average against the Cardinals.  If we have nothing else to go off, there's a good start.

But I won't leave you hanging there.  I've done my homework on this dude.  DeJesus is not a power hitter or necessarily speedy, yet he remains a quality outfielder worthy of a starting job, a rare breed in today's flashy generation of outfielders.  DeJesus' career highs in homers and steals are 13 and 11, respectively, totals that will not open any eyes (not positively, at least).  But he does possess a career .284 batting average and .356 OBP.  In my eyes, he has a nice swing and is a great contact hitter.  He doesn't strike out much (13% of plate appearances), but he walks a decent amount (8%).

DeJesus is not going to fill up a highlight reel; he's rather a solid baseball player who stays relatively healthy and provides a moderate mix of the five main tools at a relatively low cost.  In this way I think he's a very Theo-like player (see: J.D. Drew, Jed Lowrie, etc.).  And on the 2012 Cubs, he projects to have a big role.  The official Cubs depth chart reads him as the starting right fielder, ahead of Tyler Colvin and Tony Campana.  But the real question is, is it a smart move?

In short, it was a necessary move but not necessarily a smart one.  Theo & Co. were right to add another outfielder; I'm not sure DeJesus was the right guy.  He's an odd fit in this outfield and his role is unclear, especially with Colvin still being viewed as the eventual starter if he can get back on track from an awful season.  DeJesus is a solid baseball player but does not shine anywhere.  I think the Cubs would have been better served to get a specific tool-threat, like the speed and defense of Coco Crisp.

Another thing to explore is whether or not DeJesus will replace a current outfielder.  I've said before that I don't see Marlon Byrd returning in 2012 even though he is under contract; I'm officially broadening the statement to either Byrd or Alfonso Soriano will not return.  I didn't think it was possible to unload Soriano before, but I have a very hard time seeing the new hotshot brain trust (Theo and Jed Hoyer) putting up with his lackadaisical defense and the like.  They could find a way to make it happen.  If one of the two were goners, DeJesus would probably move there, opening right field for Colvin and Campana.  Still, however, Crisp would have been the better move on a team desperate for speed like his.

DeJesus' wife is fired up about the whole Cubs thing.  Not only did they buy a house in Wheaton recently, she grew up a Cubs fan.  According to her Twitter, as a young girl she would tell everyone that someday she would marry Ryne Sandberg.  And 20 years later, here she is married to a Cub.  Let's just hope David brings the same enthusiasm along to the Windy City.    

Dumping Grounds

The loss of Prince Fielder would make Milwaukee's
NLCS run their last for a while.

An opportunity is arising for the Chicago Cubs.  Even next season, the NL Central will be much weaker.  The Brewers, who will most likely lose Prince Fielder, don't have anyone explosive enough to follow up Ryan Braun. Braun will be walked.  And walked.  And walked.  After this current group of Brewers, losing lies ahead.  Milwaukee's farm system is ranked 30th (last) in MLB by Baseball America.

Even if the Cardinals keep Albert Pujols, they're not getting any younger.  To expect another elite season from 37-year-old-to-be Chris Carpenter would be foolish.  Losing Pujols also blows any chance they have for the playoffs next season.  The Cardinals are 24th in Baseball America's ranking.  

The Houston Astros, who had the worst season in franchise history in 2011, won't improve by much anytime soon.  Their farm system is ranked 26th.  And just like that, three NL Central teams have three of the worst 10 farm systems in MLB.  The Pirates are nearly the fourth, ranking at 19th.

Brett Jackson

That leaves the Reds (6th) and Cubs (16th).  The Cubs' ranking is good enough (the Sox are at 27th for comparison) but also misleading.  There are many, many average-to-above-average prospects in the system like starter Chris Carpenter who made his major league debut in June.  At one point, Jay Jackson was also projected to be in the Cubs starting rotation.  Both Jackson and Carpenter had awful seasons.  But they were just two of our many hopeful prospects who endured bad seasons in 2011.  A real weak point to the Cubs farm system is that, since Starlin Castro was called up 17 months ago, there are no stars or breakout talents.  Except for one.

Expectations are already too high for center fielder Brett Jackson.  A possible 20-20 threat, some fans and scouts have pegged him as the Cubs' answer leading off for a decade.  Just reading over a scouting report, however, makes me suspicious.  Anyone remember the last two Cubs prospects fitting the following description?  Athletic future Major League center fielder with good speed and power but strikes out too much for a lead off man.  That sounds too similar to Corey Patterson and Felix Pie, both busts who wound up in Baltimore.  Jackson will still be a good player in the Majors (knock on wood) mainly because he walks more than Patterson or Pie ever did, but Cubs fans shouldn't go overboard on thinking he's some super-prospect.

Josh Vitters with Da Comish

He's still only 21, but Cubs fans having been hearing about third baseman Josh Vitters forever.  Of course, being the 3rd overall pick of the 2007 Draft does come with a little added buzz.  He had a real fine year at AA, and if he keeps it up he'll be a September call-up in 2012.  However, he walked less than once every 20 at-bats.  Although he doesn't strike out much either, he could start striking out a lot more when pitchers figure him out.  81 RBI in 488 plate appearances (in the minors)?  I'll take it.  But he'll need to learn how to make pitchers work before he becomes an elite prospect.

My point is that while these guys are good, they all have at least one notable flaw.  Therefore, none are elite.  Furthermore, none are even that close to being 'sure bets' to produce in the Major Leagues.  The system needs more quality prospects and the Cubs should trade to get them.  The new GM, whether it be Theo Epstein or not, hopefully will pick up on this need.  But who should be traded in order to get these prospects?  Glad you asked.

Marlon Byrd

Marlon Byrd is as definite a candidate as there is.  Despite having a terrible season, he seems to still be somewhat of a fan favorite among Cubs fans.  In 2010, he was a fan favorite as well, and deservedly so.  He was an All-Star, brought smiles and a key veteran presence and decent production offensively and defensively.  This season, he hit in the face by an Alfredo Aceves fastball in May.  He missed extensive time but was no better when he came back.  Although he hit a respectable .276, he hit .198 with runners in scoring position.  In 482 plate appearances, he drove in 35 runs.  Let's review.  In 488 plate appearances, Vitters drove in 81.  With only six more plate appearances, Josh Vitters drove in 46 more runs than Byrd - in AA!  That speaks more to Byrd's failure than Vitters' success.

Carlos Marmol should also be considered.  I hate to admit this because Marmol can be so fun to watch and dominating when focused, but he's overpaid and inconsistent.  The Cubs would probably have to pay some of his salary if he were to be traded.  A good presentation and aggressive bargaining, however, could land the Cubs a premium prospect.  Sean Marshall is ready for the closer's role.  I'm not recommending a trade of Marmol this offseason for the sake of dumping Marmol, but there isn't anyone not named Starlin Castro who is untouchable on this roster.  If a team is willing to give up a good prospect to get Marmol, the Cubs need to pounce.

This next one might be a surprise to many, but Geovany Soto could go at the right price.  If the Cubs have another slow start in 2012, it could be just to time to unload Soto while his contract is still cheap and he is attractive to other teams.  Welington Castillo should get a fair chance at the Major League job, seeing as he can play defense and hit, unlike our other backup of the last three seasons (Koyie Hill).

Alfonso Soriano

Lastly, Alfonso Soriano is a real stretch.  A trade would mean the Cubs would eat nearly all of his remaining $54 million over three years.  However, his 88 RBI last season could be inviting to a general manager who would only have to pay a few million for it and could possibly even DH Soriano.  If the Cubs pay a big majority of the contract, prospects would come their way.

The bottom line is that there are many players on the Cubs right now that are no longer totally necessary.  The Cubs are going to need some core pieces to build a team around and surrounding youngsters who will develop, eventually resulting in winning.  These core pieces could be acquired by free agency, but there are too many players on the roster that are holding the team back and are being kept for all the wrong reasons.  Recently the Cubs have boasted about their record-spending in scouting, domestically and internationally.  Why not show it off now by getting under-the-radar prospects?  With better scouting in the past, the Cubs' current center fielder could have been Jacoby Ellsbury.   

Homestand Analysis: Houston, Milwaukee

Starlin Castro narrowly missed
getting his 200th hit at home.

Record: 4-2
Final Record: 69-87

Carlos Lee, despite all odds, has actually had a really great season.  Call me crazy, but the Astros former outfielder (now part-time outfielder and part-time first baseman) has a WAR this season of a full 7.0 points higher than last season!  For comparison, Ryan Braun's 7.2 WAR is 4th in the NL.  Unfortunately for Lee, however, his WAR last season was -2.5, making this season's at 4.5.  Still a very impressive turnaround, and the move to first base definitely hides his defensive weaknesses.  His defensive WAR this season is up 4.0, from -2.0 to 2.0.

Lee hit a solo homer in Friday's game at Wrigley Field for what should have been the only run off Matt Garza.  Even though it was only his 17th of the season, he has been very clutch and improved his walk rate to the point where his OBP improved nearly 50 points compared to last season.  With two outs and two strikes in the ninth on Lee with a 3-1 Cubs lead and a man on base, Lee tagged Garza, who was a strike away from a complete game win, for a two-run game-tying home run.  Marlon Byrd drove in the winning run with an infield single in the 12th.

Despite Lee's great season, the Astros have undoubtedly been the worst team in baseball.  Even though they haven't won the division since 2001, their franchise history reveals that even when bad, they've managed to stay mediocre and avoid disastrous, 100-loss seasons.  Only eight times in the franchise's 50-year history has the team finished with more than 90 losses.  But this seasons, all bets were off and the 'Stros were on pace to lose around 115 games even in May.  Although they definitely won't lose that many now, they lost their 100th on Saturday against the Cubs.  Rodrigo Lopez dominated and Bryan LaHair homered for the go-ahead run early but the lead stood 2-1 at the end.

Bleacher fans celebrate the last home win of the season.
Attendance was down for the fourth year in a row at
Wrigley, but hope is on the horizon this offseason.

Ryan Dempster had one of his typically awful first innings on Sunday but calmed down after that, giving up just those first three runs.  In the 8th, a three-run homer by Carlos Pena appeared to give the Cubs a 4-3 lead, but official review revealed the ball bounced off the yellow rope which divides the home run line and came back into the park, which is in play.  The tying (Starlin Castro) and go-ahead (Pena) runs had to stay at third and second, respectively.  Byrd failed once again with runners in scoring position (surprise, surprise) and that was the only chance the Cubs would have.  The Cubs took two of three, but should have swept.

Geovany Soto drove in all five runs on Monday night against Milwaukee on two homers and a single.  His first homer got onto Waveland Ave, making him the first Cub to reach Waveland this season.  Jerry Hairston Jr. homered off Casey Coleman for his only earned run, and Carlos Marmol performed his routine over-dramatization of a 'save' with a four-run lead by allowing Casey McGehee a 9th inning homer then putting on a few baserunners.  But with the tying run at the plate, the Cubs escaped, winning 5-2.

Mike Quade expects to be back next season, but the
new GM will probably have other (better?) ideas

Tuesday's game was a mess as los Cerveceros put up four on Randy Wells in the 4th inning.  Wells' late season hot streak is definitely over.  Castro was the only Cubs run in the 6th when he homered off Shaun Marcum, who was otherwise practically untouched.  Aramis Ramirez left early with an injury in what could be his last game at Wrigley as a Cub.

In the final home game of the season Wednesday afternoon, the Cubs passed 3,000,000 in attendance.  At 3,017,966 (an average of 37,258), the Cubs just barely passed the mark for the eighth year in a row.  Although 3,000,000 is a great feat achieved by a lucky bunch of larger-market teams, the extra empty seats at Wrigley was no secret.  Through April and May, it didn't look like the Cubs had any chance to get back to 3M, but consistent crowds of 39,000+ in the summer months pushed it through.

In 2008, the Yankees and Mets both had over 4,000,000 in attendance, but higher ticket prices and a recession saw no more 4M teams since.  There won't be any of them this season either; not even close.  The Phillies, MLB's attendance leader, would have to have around eight more home games to reach that.    This season, seven teams have reached the 3M mark and the Angels will by the end of the season.  The first seven in order are the Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Twins, Red Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals.

Matt Garza celebrates his complete game win
to close the 2011 home schedule.

D.J. LeMahieu doubled in two in that home finale as part of a 7-1 blowout.  Byrd hit a three-run homer and Garza got his complete game this time, ending the home season on a high note.  Castro, hot in the pursuit of 200 hits on the season as the NL's hits king, had three chances to get it but was intentionally walked, grounded out to short, and walked.  He got his 200th leading off Friday's game in St. Louis, so not to worry.

The last road trip of the season features St. Louis and San Diego.  The Cubs can really hurt St. Louis' playoff chances with even one win, which they got Friday night.  The Padres aren't playing for much, but the Cubs should be able to close out the season with a series win there.  It's hard to believe the Cubs are done at Wrigley in 2011, but Opening Day feels like years ago.  Watching baseball at Ye' Olde Wrigley was less fun than usual without an alcoholic aid...but big change is coming this offseason and it definitely won't get any worse than it was this season.  Financial flexibility will make us a better team next season, so I foresee games at Wrigley being a significantly hotter ticket next summer than this one.

Road Trip Analysis: New York, Cincinnati

Cubs steal emotional finale in New York on 9/11's 10th anniversary

Record: 3-4
Final Record: 65-85

Ever since the Mets traded Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers in July, the search has been on for the closer of the future.  Hard-throwing Bobby Parnell couldn't handle the job in his trial, so Manny Acosta got the honors on Friday night with a 4-3 lead in the ninth.  Darwin Barney's RBI single gave Acosta a blown save and a wide round of boos from the Citi Field crowd, but the offense redeemed him in the bottom of the inning on Justin Turner's walk-off double.

Late in the game Saturday, the Mets looked to win another tight game.  Jason Bay came through with a two-out RBI single to give the Mets a 4-3 lead in the eighth.  After Acosta's blown chance the night before, the Mets staff came crawling back to Parnell to save the next game.  Parnell blew yet another lead, as the Cubs continued their recent comeback trend.  Aramis Ramirez's two-run single to give the Cubs a deciding 5-4 lead came on a 98 mph fastball from Parnell to knot the series at one.

It's not everyday that ESPN shows a Major League Baseball game, in its primetime Sunday night slot no less, between two teams that are a combined 45.5 games out in their respective divisions.  For the Cubs, that's all Sunday night's game in New York was.  A game.  For the Mets, it was much more.  It was practically a mourning, an emotional anniversary of a terrorist attack in their community.  Many fans in the stands were personally connected to those that died on 9/11, and a big pregame ceremony was held in remembrance.  I thought the game would be sold out for sure, and it sure as hell would've made a greater statement if it was.  But apparently much of Queens didn't get the memo, as only 33,502 came to watch another tight game.

Tyler Colvin had three RBIs by the fifth inning when the Cubs held a 4-1 lead, but the Mets started chipping away on Matt Garza, eventually tying it in the eighth off Jeff Samardzija.  It would remain tied until the 11th, when rookie Josh Stinson gave up the lead followed by a two-run double each for Alfonso Soriano and Barney off Ryota Igarashi.  A Geovany Soto sac fly made it 10-4 and this insurmountable lead won the game and series for the Cubs.

Rodrigo Lopez was far from perfect in his start at Cincinnati Monday night.  Luckily, he didn't have to be perfect, as the Cubs offense put up 12 runs in support.  Lopez, who has always had problems with allowing home runs, gave up a 502-foot moon shot over the right field bleachers and into the Ohio River to Juan Francisco - the fifth homer of his Major League career.  But Jeff Baker, Starlin Castro, and Ramirez would all homer later as a washed up Dontrelle Willis really struggled.  The 12-8 win gave the Cubs 22 runs in two games.

Unfortunately, the first game of this four-game series in Cincy was the only winner for the Cubs.  In his last start of the year before being shut down by an innings limit, Mike Leake shut down the offense and narrowly outdueled Ryan Dempster in a 2-1 win.  Brandon Phillips, aka 'Dat Dude BP' (his nickname and twitter account), homered in the first.

Ramon Hernandez hit a three-run homer off starter Casey Coleman to open the scoring Wednesday night and the Reds never looked back in a blowout win.  Reds starter Johnny Cueto had to leave early with an injury, but that did nothing to awake the suddenly silent Cubs bats.

Just as suddenly as they fell silent, the bats woke up in the first inning of the series finale.  Marlon Byrd and Carlos Pena both hit two-run homers in the first inning off Homer Bailey.   Then it fell silent once again until the ninth, when the 4-0 lead had turned into a 6-4 deficit.  An exciting rally ensued; Barney drove in his second ninth inning game-tying run of the road trip.  As is typical, the Cubs stranded runners in the 10th and 11th innings before James Russell curiously blew two lefty-on-lefty matchups.  Joey Votto began the 11th with a double and Jay Bruce ended it with a walk-off two-run homer.

I don't know you about you, but this losing stuff ain't sittin' right.  Still.  Many fellow Cubs fans I know have regressed into that 'I've moved on' phase recently, but many times I can call them out on this bluff.  The best hope for a winner right now in Chicago may be the Bears, but losing still hurts.

Including wins in the first two games against the Astros, the Cubs need to go at least 8-2 to match last season's record.  They have clinched a losing season, but can avoid losing 90 games by going at least 6-4.          

Homestand Analysis: Pittsburgh, Cincinnnati

Cubs catcher Koyie Hill awaits the throw from Reed
Johnson to tag Edgar Renteria out at the plate late in
Wednesday's game.

Record: 3-3
Final Record: 62-81

As weird as morally wrong as it sounds, the Pirates marched into Wrigley Field last weekend as the statistically better team.  Being a young Cubs fan, I still felt the Cubbies mysterious aura of superiority against the Bucs, seeing as they've had it for, like, the last 20 years.

But the Pirates came to play.  Recently called up starter Brian Burres' only blemish was a Carlos Pena home run before the Pirates bullpen was perfect for nearly four innings, holding their 3-1 lead to the end.  A typical, forgettable game which wasted a great start from Ryan Dempster.

Derrek Lee returned from the DL on Saturday and started at first for Pittsburgh.  His only two homers as a Pirate came against the Cubs in that four-game series in early August, which was actually his Pirates debut.  His third homer also came against the Cubs, a grand slam off Carlos Marmol in the 9th of a 5-3 game.  The Pirates took the lead and the win thanks to Marmol finding yet another method to lose a game.  This was his ninth blown save of the season, an unacceptable mark by any measurement.  After being fooled last season, I've come to the conclusion that he isn't made to be a closer.  Marmol is an 8th inning guy, and should be treated as such for the rest of his career.

You know the whole 'get in front of the ball' tactic coaches
teach outfielders starting in T-ball?  Apparently Alfonso
Soriano (still) hasn't gotten the technique down.

Marlon Byrd picked up two RBIs and Randy Wells won his seventh game of the year as the Cubs beat Pittsburgh to end the season series between the teams, with the series ending tied 8-8.  Next came the Cincinnati Reds, out of the pennant race and relevance again as the NL Central will have a different champion for the fourth year in a row.

Dontrelle Willis made his first start at Wrigley Monday afternoon since May 29, 2007, except this time he started for the Reds.  After a sharp first few innings, he lost it during a rally in the 5th inning, where five straight batters got on base.  The Cubs' 4-1 lead barely held up to the 9th, when Marmol rebounded with a 1-2-3 inning, which was surprising to say the least.  Vegas oddsmakers must be stumped on how to gauge this guy.

Mike Leake started Tuesday, and the Cubs basically gave him a complete-game shutout.  Swinging way too aggressively, the Cubs were hanging on to their last hope in rookie Bryan LaHair in a 2-0 game with a man on when LaHair launched a ball onto Sheffield to tie the game with two outs in the 9th.  The Cubs would lose in extra innings, but this LaHair dude is some kind of exciting.  38 home runs this season alone in the Minor Leagues?!  His power numbers are unheard of and were leading the Minors by a wide margin when he was called up.  At 28, many would call him a late bloomer.  But with this ridiculous power, I hope he finds a bench spot on the roster next year while they decide which defensive position for him will cause the team the least damage.

The Reds were the ones who came back on Wednesday, but the 3-3 tie game was short-lived.  Pena launched a three-run monster blast over the bleachers.  Marmol got save #33 and the Cubs took the series from the Reds.  This series was very tight and each game came down to the end, but I really liked the starting pitching they displayed here.

The Cubs now need to go 19-0 the rest of the season to get to .500, 14-5 to match last season's record, and 11-8 to avoid losing 90 games this season, which is big from a moral standpoint.  Given the easy schedule remaining, hopefully it will be somewhere around the third option, as the first two are unrealistic for this team.

Next up for the Cubs is the Mets in New York, where they haven't played since April 2010.  The streak of not playing there for that long was the longest among NL teams.  Because of September 11, the Cubs and Mets, two teams well out of contention, will be ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.  I can't remember the last time ESPN showed a September game between two teams a combined 40 games out of their divisions or whatever.  Not that I'm complaining, but the producers definitely were hoping it would be the Yankees hosting the Rangers or some other contender for the ceremonious ten-year September 11 shindig.  Hey Cubbies, just don't embarrass yourselves on national TV like you have a knack for doing these days (see: Starlin Being Starlin?).

Four Nights in August

After the big 10-game road trip started off so terribly for the Cubs, dropping all three in Milwaukee and the first two in St. Louis, it seemed hopeless to think any positives could be taken from it.  But after a surprising win on national TV Sunday night in St. Louis, the Cubs came to Pittsburgh for a four-game series and did something they hadn't in over 50 years.

On the other side of Chicago, the story unfolding at the same time was nowhere near as bright.  In fact, some of the ugliest baseball the White Sox have played in quite some time.  The fact that the Yankees' only loss in Chicago in 2011 came against the Cubs is extremely rare; actually, that's never happened before.  The Sox were completely incompetent against the Yanks this season, and the series appeared to give the Sox little postseason hope remaining.

Outscoring the Pirates 24-15 and outhomering them 10-5, the Cubs took all four games for the first time since 1959 to incredibly break even on the trip.  While this series probably represents the only bright spot on an at-first atrocious 10-game swing, plenty of positives can be taken from it.

The Cubs beat the Bucs in all four games, they beat them in pretty much every fashion that a team can be beat.  On Monday the Cubs scratched together runs from sacrifice flies and fielder's choices and such, winning a tight battle 4-3.  On Tuesday, the Cubs blew them out in humiliating fashion with six homers in the first four innings!  Geovany Soto, Aramis Ramirez, Marlon Byrd, Tyler Colvin, and Alfonso Soriano (twice) all went yard as the Cubs won 11-6.  In all my years of watching baseball, I have never seen such an amazing power display.  On Wednesday, there were 16 total runs less scored than in the game before; just one.  A classic pitcher's duel between Matt Garza, the most under-appreciated starter on the planet and Charlie Morton, scrub, was destined for extra innings when Starlin Castro homered to help his cause for National League Player of the Week honors, which he ended up winning.  Final score: 1-0.  On Thursday the Cubs pulled out with an early lead, only to blow it and then make a marathon comeback in the 8th to win 7-6.

This compilation of victories is nothing short of a masterpiece, and will not soon be forgotten by this writer.  The term 'textbook' baseball applies.  This sweep effectively knocked the Pirates out of postseason contention, not just because of the four losses, but because of the drastic effect the losses must have had on the team morale.  The Pirates did go out and acquire Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee at the deadline, but these moves appear to have backfired and the NL Central is now a two-team race.

After the White Sox were swept by the Yankees, they handily swept the Twins in Minnesota.  In reaction, a panelist (and Sox fan) on CSN wondered why his team is 'doing this to me again', referring to the Sox blowing important games and look hopeless only to win games out of nowhere and be back in contention in no time.  The panelist just wished the Sox would lose and stop toying with their fans' minds.  When a team's own fans want the team to lose, the team has definitely been through some confusing and ridiculously aggravating stretches.

The Yankees series was one such stretch.  A lifeless stretch for the Sox saw all four starters get the loss in Jake Peavy, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Phil Humber.  The Yankees also played around with different variations of beatdowns, in the form of a blowout (18-7), a tight win (3-2), and simple superiority (6-0 and 7-2).  The series left the Sox in third place behind the Indians and Tigers by a total of 6.5 games.

As a Cubs fan, obviously I'm very pleased with the outcomes of both series.  Although this is probably not a harbinger (in that the Cubs will probably go back to consistently and the Sox back to hovering in a tentative in-contention holding pattern), it was fun while it lasted for sure.  And it probably isn't going to happen again anytime soon, so I am taking advantage of this for all it can be.  Not just the four-game sweeps on both sides of town (and winning on the right side, no less), but the authenticity of the the wins provides a lesson: in how many ways can a team beatdown another?  A comical and interesting question in the same, and it was definitely explored by our two Chicago teams last week.        

Road Trip Analysis: Cincinnati, Florida, Boston

Record: 3-4
Final Record: 20-25

The Cubs made their first trip to Cincinnati this season when they headed there last week for the first of the two scheduled two-game series on the Cubs schedule this season.  I'm not going to sugar coat it; the results of the trip to Cincinnati were catastrophic.  Two winnable games, which had we had won we would now be mere percentage points below .500, were thrown away by lack of effort and the worst defense you will see in the Major Leagues.

The first game was winnable by all means.  The Cubs had a 4-0 lead until the 6th, when Carlos Zambrano began his regularly scheduled blowup inning.  But he remained out there, and the Reds continued to hammer him while the bullpen struggled to get warm.  Zambrano had been carrying a three-hit shutout through five innings.  A walk, five hits, four earned runs with more to come on the bases with just one out later, Zambrano was relieved by Marcos Mateo.  But the damage was already done, as threw a wild pitch to score the go-ahead run and then a two-run homer to Jonny Gomes.  It wasn't just the ill-timed decision making that cost the Cubs this game; it was the lack of effort and the sense that they had given up.  Too many times I see this team sulking and just going down without a fight.  This is exactly what happened here, as if the Reds coming back was inevitable.

Just when it looked like it couldn't get any worse, of course, it did.  The Cubs came out the next night and the pitching staff, led by the starter that night Matt Garza, shut out the Reds.  In earned runs, at least.  The futile Cubs defense allowed the Reds to literally tie and win the game with seven runs, all of which were preventable by not throwing the ball away!  An error in the 4th by Carlos Pena was magnified after Garza hurriedly whipped the ball into the dugout throwing it home to get a runner.  That scored all three runs to tie the game.  Then in the 8th, the Cubs held a 5-3 lead, which Kerry Wood blew when he threw Ryan Hanigan's sacrifice bunt down the left field line trying to aggressively get the force at third.

I've only seen one other play like this one before, and it was in Game 5 of the 2006 World Series when Justin Verlander threw David Eckstein's bunt into left field trying to do the same thing.  But unlike that play, the ball this time got all the way down the line and to the wall.  Two more runs scored and the game was tied again.  Watching this play live, it's hard to describe the frustration that a Cubs fan feels when watching this stuff.  Dominique Wilkins of the Atlanta Hawks was known as 'The Human Highlight Reel' for his stunning ability to light up a highlight reel.  The Cubs as a team basically create the Human Incompetence Reel.

These two games should have been won.  They were key division games early in the season and the weather nullified much of the home field advantage.  This is a series the Cubs needed to win if they are going to get back into the NL Central mix.  They put together wins here and there this season, but they aren't going to win anything if they ever have another game like this (photo, left) or allow seven unearned runs.

After all of this, the Cubs headed to South Beach for their last series ever at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens.  Surprisingly, the Cubs won both games there in efficient fashion.  Not so surprisingly, it was their first sweep of the season, albeit a two-game series.  The Cubs did not commit an error in either game.

This led to the Cubs' first trip to Fenway Park in Boston since the 1918 World Series.  News of this World Series came up recently, when a report stemming from a document released by the Chicago History Museum suggested that the Cubs blew the Series for money, much like the White Sox did a year later.  I don't know the truth to this document, and it very well could just be the Sox player hassling the Cubs indirectly about something else.
 
Marlon Byrd was interviewed by Comcast SportsNet on Thursday night after the win against Florida and, when asked on his outlook for the Boston series, he replied, "Sweep Caroline."  I agree that the whole Sweet Caroline tradition at Fenway is really annoying, but hearing this stuff out of him gets tiring to be honest.  Last season, Byrd guaranteed the playoffs in May when the team was falling out of contention.  Well, you saw how that turned out.

The Cubs seemed overwhelmed by an American League offense in the first round on Friday night.  All three games were on national television, with WGN, FOX, and ESPN handling the games, respectively. After an uneventful 15-5 loss Friday, the Cubs bats woke up in the 8th inning of the game Saturday night, and the Red Sox collapsed which was reminiscent of the Cubs' defense collapses.  In a stunning change of momentum, the Cubs put up eight in the 8th and won 9-3.  As the Cubs closed out the bottom of the 9th, the huge contingent of Cubs fans that had traveled to Boston were chanting 'Let's Go Cubbies' at Fenway Park, an action pretty much unprecedented.  Every game at Fenway Park since April 2003 has been a sellout, so it's always full of Red Sox fans.  But Cubs fans took over Fenway late on Saturday.  Although that was nice, it was the only win in the series loss.

The Cubs were quietly shut down by knuckleballer Tim Wakefield on Sunday night.  Such a loss can be expected from the Cubs, as this is one of those games I notice where they just give up at a certain point.  The indifference of the group makes them less interesting to watch for sure, and this is the primary factor in the Cubs attendance struggles of this season.  But either way, this road trip was very up and down.  Mostly down, though, and the Red Sox-Cubs series generated nothing more than publicity for historical content, not a key turning point like it could have been.

Believe it or not, I have faith in the Cubs coming up in the next few weeks.  A nice, long homestand against three bad teams in the Mets, Pirates, and Astros is the perfect time to get into a groove, especially as the ivy will be grown, the weather will be nice, and the fans will be there.  And they'll need to get into a groove, because they then play 20 straight games against teams who had winning records last year.  But I have faith they will, because this team has hung in there despite slow starts from Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena, who are both hitting very well now.  Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner will be huge to this team, as the Cubs will no longer have to deal with immediate five-run deficits by way of James Russell every fifth day.  Hopefully, the Cubs will get lucky for once.
 
  

Treading Water

After the first two and a half weeks of baseball, the Cubs seem to be putting forth about the amount of success as last year's group.  With today's loss to the Rockies, the Cubs fall back under .500 again to 7-8, but now return home for a nice nine-game homestand.  Pitching has not been a great strength of the Cubs, and the rotation especially has underperformed quite a bit.  Carlos Zambrano, Matt Garza, and Ryan Dempster have all not pitched well really at all this season.  The injuries to Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner have hurt as well as James Russell was slammed his first start and Casey Coleman has had mixed results.

The bullpen, not including today's performance by Marcos Mateo, has been very good in general.  Carlos Marmol thankfully hasn't thrown out his shoulder yet (knock on wood), which is a concern I have for him just about every time he throws the baseball.  But the rotation has the Cubs playing more high-scoring games than usual.  The Cubs offense has scored 4.5 runs per game this season, and that should be enough to win with the rotation we have.  But Dempster, Zambrano, and Garza have ERAs of 6.30, 6.11, and 6.27, respectively.  Come on now guys, that's no way to run a railroad.

But the offense cannot go unnoticed.  Although they are averaging 4.5 runs a game which is near league average and only a bit above the 4.2 from last year, the Cubs are fourth in MLB in batting average, and fifth in hits.  We can owe plenty of those hits to a certain Starlin Castro, who as of Sunday night led baseball in hits with 28.  In my wanna-be highly-educated fan opinion, Castro is unbelievable.  Watching him out there is like watching a 12-year-old in park district game.  He just comes to play the game and nothing else, just trying to have fun.  It almost seems like he doesn't even feel the pressures and expectations of playing in the bigs, not to mention with all of the hype around him and the Cubs as a franchise and Chicago as a city.  Today watching the Cubs-Rockies game, I watched him bend over the plate to go get a ball well off the plate and ground it to Todd Helton at first base.  Len Kasper picked up on his anger with himself over becoming overanxious on the broadcast.  And after the inning ended and the camera was on him right before commercial, he swung up his helmet as if he was about to slam it in frustration.  This from a guy with a .418 batting average, four hits just the night before, and Chicago status as a fan favorite.

Although fielding has been an issue with this team so far as well, there's been an improvement over last year's performance and Castro has gotten much better so far, making better plays quicker despite two errors.  Basically, this team is waiting on the starting pitching.  It's not time to sound the alarm on the Garza trade yet, but he should know that that is exactly what will happen unless he starts putting up numbers and soon.  The poor performances from Zambrano and Dempster are surprising, to be honest, despite all the Zambrano haters who may have correctly pegged his successful comeback last season as a fluke.  Dempster's success seemed too easy last season, and it's finally catching up to him.  So far I've seen a whole bunch of - to use a Bob Brenly term here meaning a slider that spins but doesn't move hardly at all - cement mixers in the low 80s left high in the zone, right where hitters can get at them.  Hopefully he'll improve, because we need it.

NOTE: There's been some confusion on the results of the quiz giveaway from a few weeks ago.  I apologize for not making this clearer, but if you did win the free app then they would have replied in an email with the code to get the app free.  If you did not get this email, unfortunately you didn't win.  Thanks to all participants, I have deemed this partnership a success.  There may be future similar opportunities, so stay tuned.

Scouting Report on 2011 Cubs

The following is a report on the 2011 Cubs by an anonymous baseball expert contacted by Sporting News.

"First baseman's Carlos Pena's lefthanded bat adds to the offensive balance, but this team still has enough holes to prevent it from winning.  I expect the Cubs to be far more competitive than last season, but they don't have a particularly strong rotation and they have a big offensive hole at second base.  This team may go as afar as Carlos Zambrano takes it.  That's a little unsettling base on Big Z's injury problems early last season.  He's also capable of becoming a distraction.
"(Marlon) Byrd, (Alfonso) Soriano, (Tyler) Colvin and (Kosuke) Fukudome offer depth in the outfield.  Starlin Castro is going to be an outstanding player, I believe.  Is Blake DeWitt the answer at second?  I don't know.  And the Cubs probably don't, either.
"The Cubs used to roll out a dominant rotation.  They can't say that anymore.  You don't know what you're going to get out of many of these guys. ... To me, the Cubs are missing another anchor for the rotation."

This guy is absolutely right on a few things, and a little out of date on some others.  But I couldn't agree more with his point about the offensive hole at second base, which will be manned by a platoon between Blake DeWitt, Jeff Baker, and even a bit of Darwin Barney.  The future of second base for the Cubs is Barney.  He's a career .286 hitter in the minors and a terrific contact hitter.  And although he isn't ready for the starting job to break camp this season, I think he will steal the job by the end of summer or Spring Training next year.  Not only is that a compliment to his talents, it speaks towards the Cubs' lack of quality players there.  DeWitt is a career .259 hitter with no speed and little power, although he too is a decent contact hitter.  Baker can only hit lefties, and even then he isn't anything special.  How a guy with his talent level plays in the Majors I don't understand.  So while Barney might hit for a good average, the Cubs will have to go through a season of DeWitt and Baker.

Just a note about this report is that it was written before the Cubs acquired Matt Garza.  That acquisition probably would have drastically changed this report.  The part where the scout says, "the Cubs used to roll out a dominant rotation.  They can't say that anymore," is no longer valid.  First of all, the Cubs haven't rolled out a dominant rotation since 2008.  Second of all, the current rotation isn't quite dominant, but is the second best in the division behind on Milwaukee's.  When he says, "[about Zambrano] he's also capable of being a distraction," he's making a serious understatement.  For the last few years, Zambrano has been a ticking time bomb that goes off at some point in summer.  But the powers of anger management will be put to the test this summer, and we could see a sane Carlos for once.

Overall, the scout pegs them somewhat accurately.  He thinks "this team still has enough holes to prevent it from winning," but that's probably a pessimistic look at this team.  With bad defense, no speed, a decent bullpen, average offense and an above average rotation, I see the Cubs finishing no worse than .500 and giving Milwaukee and Cincinnati a run for their money in this weak division.

2011 Profiles: Marlon Byrd

Can Marlon Byrd find his role in the Cubs offense?


Writer's Take: Yes and no.  It's hard to talk bad about a guy who's third in the Cactus League with 15 hits and a .500 average.  But good average hitting was something we saw with Byrd in the first half of 2010, and it made him the Cubs' most All-Star worthy player before an ugly drop off in the second half.  At 9 homers, 40 RBIs and a .317 average in the 2010 first half, I didn't think he was actually All-Star worthy neither then nor now.  But he was the most consistent offensive player on that team and the Cubs' one automatic All-Star selection went to him.

Don't expect him to be an All-Star again this year, but he still will probably have a better year overall.  At the end of 2010, his average sat at .293 which isn't bad by hardly any stretch, but he only managed three homers in the second half.  To be fair, this wasn't a guy the Cubs signed for his power.  But it's hard to make yourself relevant in a lineup when you aren't stealing bases, aren't hitting homers, aren't drawing many walks, or hitting for a great average.

On each of his 12 home runs, his home run 'trots' were actually sprints.  He should use some of this hustle to steal a few bases.  Mike Quade has already indicated that he wants his team running more this season, and Byrd looks to be a candidate.  Stealing won't effect his batting average, but would definitely affect the production of the hitters behind him in the lineup.  Byrd hits near the bottom of the lineup most of the time, and getting production out of those 7-8-9 hitters is a sign of a really strong offense.  Production from that part of the lineup may have been the single most important factor in how the Cubs led the NL in runs in 2008.  With a consistent Byrd who gets on base and gets aggressive on those basepaths, this Cubs offense has the tools to put up big numbers.

Ideal Production: .300, 15 steals, 18-20 homers, 70 RBIs, 45 walks    

Expert Opinion: Byrd has a different mindset in 2011, writes Bruce Levine of espnchicago.com.  A more prominent leadership role is something we could see from him this season with many of last year's veterans gone.

2011 Cubs: Bold Predictions

This season's edition of the Cubs should be an interesting one.  With this season's fate to be most likely decided upon the play of unpredictable young players, it could really go anywhere.  I think these Cubs could win 90 games; I also think they could lose 100.  But the difficulty of these predictions is what makes them fun; one must visualize their own results, play it out in their own mind.  When I see these Cubs, here's what I see.  The following ten predictions, some more realistic than others, are in no particular order.

1. Starlin Castro will steal 25 bases.
Castro, known for his raw speed, didn't have much luck stealing bases at the Major League level in 2010.  Being thrown out eight out of 18 tries and being picked off multiple times, it was clear Castro has some work to do when it comes to knowing when to run and how to recognize pitcher pickoff moves.  This is something Mike Quade and his staff will surely work on in Spring Training, however, because Castro's speed may be the only real speed on this team.

2. The 2011 season will be Marlon Byrd's last as a Cub.
Byrd is known for his great clubhouse chemistry and attitude towards the game, and his fielding range in center field is outstretched by very few.  Clearly this sets a great example for young teams looking for a leader.  And although Byrd's contract with the Cubs runs through 2012, I see him being traded in most scenarios the Cubs could run into this season.  If the Cubs are well out of contention, he will be dealt at the deadline in July.  If the Cubs hang around and hover near .500, he will last the season but be traded in the offseason to beef up the pitching or veterans in the field.  If the Cubs win the division and play very well all season long, he will probably stick around.  But as we know, that's highly unlikely.  Why would the Cubs want to trade Byrd?  Because center fielder Brett Jackson, the Cubs' 2009 1st Round Draft Pick, is rapidly on his way towards the Majors.  Jackson's five tool ability makes him the perfect fit for the center field at Wrigley Field.  There probably isn't room for both Jackson and Byrd in this town.

3. Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, and Matt Garza will combine for 45 wins.
In the rotation for a full season barring injury, all three are locks for 10 wins.  Garza will be moving to the National League and out of the hitter-happy AL East, meaning he should only get better.  Considering he already wins 15 games in that AL East, there's no reason why he shouldn't in the NL Central.  Ryan Dempster also had a 15-win season in 2010, his first since 2008 but only the third in his career.  Dempster has never had a stretch of three seasons as dominant as the last three in his career, and actually posted a career high in K/9 innings at his 2010 age of 33.  He should be able to get there.  Carlos Zambrano for 15 wins?  I know it sounds like a stretch.  But Zambrano learned how to pitch last season; like actually learned to locate.  His fastball might top out at 90mph on a given night, but unlike earlier years, he can still win with that. Keep that in mind heading into this season, and I see these three being an a-okay trio at the top of the rotation.

4. The 2012 Cubs will make the playoffs.
It's as simple as that.  Although Carlos Pena is a free agent after 2011, this could mean the Cubs will want him back on a long term deal or, more likely, the Cubs will go after free agent Prince Fielder.  Either move should give the Cubs enough to contend in 2012.  2009 1st Round Draft Pick Brett Jackson should be in the Majors at some point in 2012, and he will be a special player who should make an impact immediately.  Another year of progression for Starlin Castro, who should be a star by then, will also help.  The Cubs' strong farm system, still strong despite dealing three of its top ten prospects to Tampa Bay in the Garza trade, has many pieces that will be contributing soon.

5. When the Cubs jokingly said they would have to retaliate by throwing at Cardinals shortstop Ryan Theriot for his criticism of the Cubs, they weren't kidding.
The scrappy Theriot isn't hard to miss, but his radio appearance on a St. Louis radio show was.  Theriot, just sucking up to Cardinals fans upon arrival, said that it felt great to "finally be on the right side" of the Cubs-Cardinals rivalry.  While it was no specific attack on the Cubs, Cubs players took offense to it.  Mike Quade is going to get his squad more emotionally pumped than Lou Piniella did, and retaliation to Theriot's comments could be an excuse for these Cubs to give the Cardinals a wake-up call and send a message that it isn't just St. Louis and Cincinnati for the division title.

6. By a wide margin, Kosuke Fukudome will lead the lead in bench warming, even if he is traded at the deadline. 
Tyler Colvin didn't show us all of his potential in 2010 and became less effective at the plate as the season went on.  Colvin will continue to develop and have an even better season in 2011.  While Fukudome can get on base, this is pretty much all he offers offensively.  That is a highly-regarded trait at the Trade Deadline, however, so he could be moved for his defense and on-base percentage.  Colvin's play will demand starting everyday while Reed Johnson actually offers more defensively than Fukudome does, making Fukudome dispensable.

7. These Cubs will prove that they actually do have emotions, and will show them.
This ties in to #5 as well.  The 2010 Cubs, for most of the season, appeared to be many of the 'living dead'.  The Cubs were on pace to lose well over 90 games, and yet with the exception of Carlos Zambrano there was no frustration to be seen on or off the field from the players.  This showed the fan base that the players didn't care enough, and the fans responded by not coming to games.

8. The current tandem at second base, Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker, will fail.  Neither will be starting at second at the end of this season.
It's already clear that second base will be a major offensive weakness for the Cubs, and two below average hitters won't cut it.  The plan is to play DeWitt against righties, Baker against lefties.  It won't work because DeWitt can't hit enough to sustain a starting job (or platoon for that matter) and Baker's power contributions probably will be few and far between.  For a hitter like Baker who can hit for power when he gets in a roll, it's hard to build an base of consistency when you play around every other day but could go five days without playing.
 
9. You will have a sudden urge to splurge for that $15 replica helmet stuffed to the brim with loaded nachos.
See?  Your mouth is watering already.  Whether the Cubs are winning or not, there's nothing like a nice distraction.  The food options at Wrigley Field are, slowly, getting better.  And if you haven't tried this monster bowl yet, do it just once.  It's more experience than food, and hey, it's a darn good conversation starter.

10. The Cubs will finish at .500 or above, but miss the playoffs. 
The Cubs have talent there; the key will be getting a swagger back.  The whole 'Sweet Lou' and 'It's Gonna Happen' swagger of 2008 took a huge hit with the playoff loss to the Dodgers and was gone after a depressing 2009 season.  There was little to no swagger of the 2010 Cubs and this is something every winning team needs.  These Cubs will be younger than teams before, and young players bring energy.  This energy could by what the Cubs are fueled by.  The talent the Cubs do have is not stronger than that of the Reds, Cardinals, or even Brewers.  But we haven't seen the potential of hardly any of the prospects yet, and these Cubs could go anywhere.  If I have to make a prediction, I say they're a .500 team.

Is Matt Garza Worth It?

Ben Nicholson-Smith of mlbtr.com reports that GM Jim Hendry is trying very hard for Matt Garza in a deal that would send Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Chris Archer, and Brandon Guyer.  Garza is 42-44 in his career with a 3.97 career ERA, playing his career with the Twins and Rays.  He is 27 and has pitched 592.1 innings over the last three years, including at least 200 in the last two.  Garza will be an innings eater no matter where he goes but could become even better with the possible move to the National League, especially moving out of the powerful AL East.  There's no doubt that he is a great pitcher and could win 15 games, and is exactly the kind of guy the Cubs need, but he comes at a high price.

As I said yesterday about a possible trade for B.J. Upton, Chris Archer is the top pitching prospect in the Cubs organization.  If we are able to get Garza, Archer could be a guy we no longer need.  Hak-Ju Lee, a man I called the Korean Jose Reyes before the 2010 season, has fantastic speed and has shown it over the last two seasons.  He is the guy I would be most concerned about parting with; he could be a breakout player down the road.  But the fact is that the Rays have Reid Brignac at shortstop after trading away Jason Bartlett, and Brignac will never be a starting infielder in his career.  Lee is the speed that the Cubs need in the future, and trading him would add a lot of risk that he would burn us and become a star.  Guyer ripped through AA ball hitting a ridiculous .344 with 13 homers and 58 RBI in 102 games.  Guyer plays all three outfield positions, but that doesn't necessarily help his chances of making the Major League version of the Cubs.  He also stole 30 bases in 2010 and is a future 20/20 talent in the Majors.  But the Cubs have Tyler Colvin, Marlon Byrd, Alfonso Soriano, and Kosuke Fukudome in the outfield rotation and the Cubs would not want Guyer sitting on the bench playing every once in a while.  None of those four outfielders appear to be going anywhere soon, so Guyer is out of luck.  He's like Tyler Colvin, but with a lot of speed.  I think the Cubs would love to have him, but there's not room so he should be traded.  Chirinos isn't a youngster anymore at 27, an average hitting catcher who isn't anything special.  The Cubs don't have a necessity for him.

To the Cubs:
SP Matt Garza

To the Rays:
SP Chris Archer
SS Hak-Ju Lee
OF Brandon Guyer
C Robinson Chirinos

The Verdict: Pull the trigger.  If the Cubs acquire Matt Garza, this should be a winning season and the NL Central should be weak in 2011, giving the Cubs a shot at the division title.  Garza would give the Cubs a rotation of Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells, and Tom Gorzelanny or Carlos Silva.  An adequate rotation, to say the least.  Just reading that rotation is exciting!  Let's hope Hendry figures it out.