Hot Stove Buzz #6

After a sad start to their offseason, the Tampa Bay Rays have turned it around and made some moves to possibly keep themselves in contention after all.  After watching the majority of the talent on the 2010 Rays leave in Rafael Soriano, Dan Wheeler, Carlos Pena, Randy Choate, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Dioner Navarro, J.P. Howell, Brad Hawpe, and Carl Crawford all leave via free agency, the outlook for the 2011 Rays looked bleak.  But in the last week, the Rays and their fans have gotten some hope in the form of the signings of Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez, and Felipe Lopez.  Damon and Ramirez, former teammates on the Red Sox, both won World Series rings in 2004.  Damon got another one with the Yankees in 2009, although both have been all over the postseason in the past decade.  Lopez has never been in the playoffs, but has the same winning attitude that Damon and Ramirez have which is exactly what the Rays are looking for.  While I think Damon and Ramirez have a lot more potential remaining for offensive production, the motivation and confidence of the two have come into question in recent years.  Lopez has not had these problems, but definitely doesn't bring as much to the table at the plate or in the field.

When first reading that the Rays were close to signing such big names as Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, clients of superagent Scott Boras no less, I was surprised.  I'm sure many other fans were too, seeing as they are the Rays and have only been mentioned in the same breath as winning in the past three years.  However, after further review, the Rays actually have a history of going after high profile veterans.  Remember which team Wade Boggs got his 3000th career hit with?  Which team sluggers Jose Canseco and Greg Vaughn played on together in 2000?  Which team was the front runner to sign Barry Bonds after his finish with the Giants in 2007, although a deal was never reached?  Prior to now, it would be hard for me to see why a free agent would want to come to Tampa Bay considering how bad they were for the majority of the 2000s, but perhaps it was seen as a rebuilding challenge for an old veteran wanting a challenge.  Other recent news and notes:

-Jermaine Dye would rather retire than play in the Minors, a preference he also had last winter.  The Cubs and Brewers both gave him Major League offers last winter, but he didn't sign with either and sat out the season.  "I'm still working out.  I'm still in shape.  I'm still motivated," said Dye, although many teams aren't sure motivation is enough for him to earn a Major League contract offer.  Now 37, many scouts aren't sure Dye can hit well enough to deserve a full time job.  After a strong first half, Dye's second half of 2009 was very bad and that doesn't help his cause now either.

-In Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com's chat with fans regarding the Cubs and White Sox, there were a few interesting ideas thrown out there.  A fan asked Levine if the Cubs were "any closer" to signing shortstop Orlando Cabrera, to which Levine replied that he hadn't heard anything suggesting so.  But this sparked that idea to me; why not sign Orlando Cabrera to play second base?  Currently, the Cubs have three potential seocnd basemen in Blake DeWitt, Jeff Baker, and Darwin Barney.  DeWitt is only 25 but has little potential, Baker is 30 but never really had any potential unless he's facing a lefty, and Barney has potential but has little experience.  In a wacky and wild idea, the Cubs could dump DeWitt and Baker to anyone who will take them and let Cabrera and Barney man second base.  Just an idea.

-Albert Pujols on the Cubs?  Another idea from that chat is to have the Cubs make an aggressive push for Albert Pujols next winter.  Quite an interesting idea, especially considering the Cubs will have the financial flexibility to do it.  Prince Fielder will also be a free agent and has actually been realistically mentioned by experts as someone the Cubs could go after.  Could signing one of these two be the reason Carlos Pena was given only one season?  Will Tom Ricketts be aggressive enough to go after one of these two?  And finally, with Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena, and Micah Hoffpauir gone after 2011, who else would play first base in 2012?

-While the Cubs wanted to upgrade defensively at first base by signing former Ray Carlos Pena, the Rays also wanted to upgrade defensively by signing the best defensive first baseman of all time in Casey Kotchman.  That's too bad, because no matter what they'll have to downgrade after Kotchman.

-Alexei Ramirez was handed an extension of 4 years, $32.5 million with the White Sox.  At around $8 million per year, Sox fans are calling it a bargain.  It might be considering his offensive production power-wise is great for his position, and although he doesn't steal bases too well he is great defensively.      

"The Most Inexplicable Trade Ever?"

Now that the well-publicized Vernon Wells to the Angels for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera has sunk in for more than a week, I think it's time we compare.  Is this deal the worst trade of the offseason?  Of the decade?  Ever?

The worst trade in the recent history of baseball before the Wells deal is, in my opinion, when the Expos traded Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore to the Indians for Bartolo Colon back in 2002.  Colon had won 75 games over the past six seasons with the Indians, while none between Phillips, Lee, or Sizemore had even debuted in the Major Leagues.  Sizemore was just 19 at the time.  Colon went on to win 10 games for the Expos in 2004, then leave as a free agent that very offseason.  His WAR for that half season was 2.3.  In their respective careers, Phillips, Lee, and Sizemore have totaled a 51.9 WAR in the Major Leagues, although the Indians trade Phillips and eventually Lee also.  The bottom line is that the Expos sent their three best prospects for just one player in return, a 'rental' at that, seeing as how they knew Colon would be a free agent after that very season.  Clearly, it wasn't worth it.

Brandon Phillips has not gotten the most attention out there, but he quietly produces on the now-contending Reds.  His best season came in 2007, his second full season manning second base for Cincinnati in which he had a 30-30 offensive season, earning him some MVP votes.  He's been a consistent 20-20 player since 2006, but his run production took a step backward in 2010.  He was also thrown out 12 times to only 16 steals, but the 30 year old has lots of time to keep producing for the Reds.  His attitude and teammate chemistry make him a very valuable part to a Cincinnati Reds team that now depends on his leadership to contend.

Cliff Lee has arguably been in more trade/free agency rumors than any other player since 2009.  Playing for four teams in two seasons, Lee has become quite the hot commodity over this time.  Perhaps his most highly regarded trait is his control, something GMs scramble to acquire.  Lee walked just 61 in 444 innings between 2009 and 2010.  This is exactly the player Lee could have become playing for the Nationals, assuming they could sign him to an extension.  In 2005, just three years after the trade, Lee finished fourth in Cy Young voting with an 18-5 record and a 3.79 ERA.  The 2005 Nationals were a contending team in the first half, but lacked rotation depth and faded in the second half so Lee would have probably helped them become a winner.

Grady Sizemore was a 20-20 player in his first full season in 2005, at the age of 22.  He continued this trend until 2008, when he improved to 30-30.  From 2004-2007, he had a 3.7 defensive WAR, a signature characteristic of a five tool outfielder.  Oh, and he also had a 17.2 WAR over that time, followed by a 5.3 in 2008.  Although injuries have derailed his performance the last two seasons, Sizemore was arguably the best outfielder of the mid 2000s.  His combination of power, speed, defense, and enthusiasm for the game were enough to call him probably one of the best players in baseball as well.

Meanwhile, Bartolo Colon's career with his new team lasted a full three months and 17 starts.  The highlight of his tenure with Montreal came on August 19, 2002, when he shut out the Padres at home allowing two hits and two walks on 95 pitches.  Besides that and Colon's 10 wins in that second half, not much came to the Expos in this deal.  Colon signed with the White Sox in the offseason and good season there in 2003, and the Expos were left with nothing.  Essentially, the Expos gave up three future All-Stars in exchange for half a season from a decent starter in a season where the Expos never came close to the playoffs.

While that trade looks bad because Colon was gone in half a season and the other three are having great careers, Vernon Wells will probably have a decent career for quite some time on the Angels.  The fact that Wells is a good player is not being disputed by many; this trade looks worse on paper.  Wells' salary will not make his production worth it, and the Angels gave up the two following players:

Mike Napoli hit 20 homers for the third straight season in 2010, keeping up his reputation as a great power hitter for a catcher.  Napoli has always been a minus defensively, but his bat makes him a valuable commodity to a contending team, especially since power out of the catcher spot is hard to find.  Immediately after being traded to Toronto, the Blue Jays turned around and swung him to Texas.  Napoli is a great player to have on a winning team, which the Rangers figure to be in 2011.

Juan Rivera has also always been a negative defensively, but an effective player nonetheless.  Rivera had his best season in 2009, hitting 25 homers and 88 RBI in 138 games.  He doesn't walk much and probably won't make a big overall impact on a lineup on his own, making his best role a fourth outfielder or third outfielder subject to frequent substitution.

To be sure, Vernon Wells has had a nice career.  He was a consistent cog in the Toronto outfield for almost the entire 2000s.  From 2002-2010, Wells averaged .279 with 25 homers, 89 RBI, 9 steals, and a total 28.0 offensive WAR over that time period.  Despite two subpar seasons in 2007 and 2009, it's hard to look at the stat sheet and not realize he was a great player for some time.  

Now here's where it gets really, really ugly.  Vernon Wells enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2010, swatting 31 homers and 88 RBI.  But even that isn't good enough to live up to his contract.  The 32 year old Wells hit 16 or less homers in both 2007 and 2009 (in full seasons), providing for a real head scratcher as to why the Blue Jays would reward a 'slugger' with those gaping holes in the stat sheet with 7 years, $126 million.  Although the deal was signed in December 2006, it didn't go into effect until 2010, the first year of the deal.  Wells made over $15 million in 2010, but it gets worse.  Wells' deal runs for four more seasons, so he'll be 35 at the end, over which time the Angels are due to pay him around  $86 million.  In 2011, he's due $23 million and will be due $21 million in 2012, 2013, and 2014.  The $23 million he will make next season was higher than any non-Yankee in baseball.  Miguel Cabrera was the only player not playing in New York to earn $20 million in 2010, giving you an idea of what Wells' salary will be compared to.  Remember, although Wells has had some good seasons like 2010, he had two very bad seasons for a player who is being paid to drive the ball and these two seasons were recent.  Look at his stats page, scroll down to the Standard Batting chart, and notice the two seasons I've highlighted in blue.

So he's getting paid.  Like seriously paid.  Big time dough.  All that cash for a guy who's being paid for the run production, but is well past his peak and proof of that comes in the form of those two awful seasons that were 2007 and 2009.  And all that cash for a guy who had his best season, like, eight years ago.  His career highs in games, at-bats, plate appearances, runs, hits, doubles, homers (only 33), RBI, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, total bases, and even times hit by pitch, all came in 2003.  In 2003, he had lineup protection in Carlos Delgado behind him and table setters in Frank Catalanotto and Shannon Stewart in front of him, all three of whom are now out of the Majors.  Heading to the Angels, his only table setters will likely be Howie Kendrick and/or Erick Aybar, and his only lineup protection will be Torii Hunter.  The setup was better on the Blue Jays, and although a change of scenery could help him, his ceiling is low because there's no chance he will do much better than his 2010 output, if he even gets to that mark.  His career high of 33 homers in 2003 is nowhere near the career highs of the sluggers he is being to hit like.

In conclusion, I think the Vernon Wells trade is the worst trade of recent baseball history, worse than the Bartolo Colon deal.  Angels GM Tony Reagins had taken a lot of criticism nationwide for his whiffs on Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Beltre.  This move was, without doubt, a desperation move to try to compensate for missing on those elite players.  But not only does Reagins have to give up two decent players in Napoli and Rivera, he is now stuck with what most baseball experts cite as 'baseball's most untradeable player' in Wells and his enormous contract.  In the Bartolo Colon trade of 2002, Colon was gone by that offseason and although this didn't give the Expos much value, it also didn't tie down their future, either.  Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips all went on to be great players, but it's unlikely the Expos would have been able to resign all three or even two once they became established stars.  And now the Angels will have limited financial flexibility for at least the next offseason due to this contract monstrosity.  So while Wells may be smiling ear to ear to be out of Toronto where he never made the playoffs, Reagins won't be in four years.                

2010-2011 Free Agency Predictions

The following players are the best of the best out there this offseason, the top free agents of the 2010-2011 Hot Stove.  Here are my predictions on where they go with a short explanation.  These predictions are very tough because when it comes right down to it any team with budget room has a shot to sign a guy, as I have learned from past experience (see: Matt Holliday, Athletics 2009 and Adam Dunn, Nationals 2009).  Well, these are my 'educated guesses'.  Free agents are ranked based off the list from mlbtraderumors.com's top 50 free agents, but the predictions and explanations are original Cubs Insider material.

1. Cliff Lee - Yankees.  It will be a serious upset if anyone but the Yankees gets one of the best starters in baseball in Lee.  Lee beat the Yankees twice in the ALCS in eliminating the Yankees on his way to the World Series, and if the Yankees get beat by a top player they are double as likely to get him the next offseason.

2. Carl Crawford - Tigers.  With a bunch of huge contracts (Magglio Ordonez, Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, etc.) coming off the books, the Tigers are revved up to spend big time dough.  Crawford is a great fit for the spacious gaps of Comerica Park making a great duo between him and Austin Jackson.  A Detroit team that appeared lifeless at times last year could use this spark plug.

3. Adrian Beltre - Angels.  The Angels are also looking to spend and will be in the Crawford sweepstakes, but this should be their top guy.  Beltre is coming off a tremendous season with the Red Sox and the Angels want a definite power bat in the middle of the order more than a bunch of aging but somewhat effective veterans (Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, Torii Hunter).

4. Jayson Werth - Red Sox.  The Red Sox have to make their annual splash, and the fan base craves a sturdy left fielder after a season with a revolving door in front of the Green Monster.  Nine players played in left field for Boston in 2010, and the Red Sox also love his power bat.

5. Adam Dunn - Cubs.  An admitted lover of hitting at Wrigley Field, the Cubs will need a power hitting lefty first baseman to contend in 2011.  The Tigers and White Sox will also be in competition for the veteran, but Dunn will end up with the Cubs for the first reason and also because of his past relationship with GM Jim Hendry, whom Dunn knows from their days in Cincinnati.

6. Victor Martinez - Tigers.  Detroit won't get Dunn, but still have a first baseman in Martinez.  This signing gives them lots of flexibility as they can use Martinez at either position or even rotate him, allowing the Tigers to start bench players and rookies and play the hot bat.  With Crawford, the Tigers will have impressively signed a power bat and leadoff guy, memo to the rest of the AL Central.

7. Rafael Soriano - White Sox.  The Angels are the favorite in this race, but the White Sox have lost almost all trust in Bobby Jenks are unlikely to want to have him as closer again.  GM Ken Williams always pulls off a few eye openers in the offseason, this being probably his biggest.  Williams, more often than not, gets his man.

8. Mariano Rivera - Yankees.  Tight race between the Yankees and Diamonbacks.  Yeah right.

9. Paul Konerko - White Sox.  The odds of him leaving are palpable and feasible, but he probably extended his Chicago career with his terrific comeback 2010 season.  Ripping 38 homers is enough to keep the great (owner) Jerry Reinsdorf-Konerko friendship alive.  If not the Sox, possibly the Angels or Diamondbacks.  Not joking this time.

10. Derek Jeter - Yankees.  See: Rivera, Mariano.  The Yankees are going to severely overpay for Jeter who is no longer an above average defender and earned another Gold Glove he doesn't deserve.  As the face of the Yankees franchise, there's pretty much no chance he will be playing anywhere but The House That Jeter Built (New Yankee Stadium) in 2011.

11. Hiroki Kuroda - Dodgers.  Kuroda could be an under the radar signing somewhere else, but the Dodgers like his durability and reliability.  For a team lacking in a true ace, Kuroda should be a solid middle rotation starter.

12. Jorge De La Rosa - Rockies.  A lefty middle rotation guy, he has some caution flags stuck on his shoulder, that being his control problems that have plagued him when has been ineffective.  Even when playing to his potential, he walks too many batters.  The kind of player rebuilding teams target, the Nationals, Royals, and Pirates have been linked to him as well.

13. Carl Pavano - Twins.  While the Twins still lack an ace since the departure of Johan Santana, Pavano, after pitching only 145.2 innings over 2005-2008 with the Yankees, has now pitched 420.1 innings over the past two seasons and is a workhorse.  The Twins need him as a key cog in that staff of mediocre to above average starters.

14. Jake Westbrook - Cardinals.  A low drama deal, the Cardinals will pay the man his money because they still need depth behind Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter.  Westbrook probably isn't the best they can do, but he's willing to come back and will take some innings.

15. Aubrey Huff - Giants.  2010's best bargain deal was Huff who hit 26 homers and led the Giants to the championship for only $3 million.  The Giants certainly won't want him to guy, they will get him back.

16. Juan Uribe - Mariners.  The historically terrible offense of the 2010 Seattle Mariners was an embarrassment to the franchise and GM Jack Zduriencik will make some moves.  Uribe seems like a logical pickup as current shortstop Josh Wilson doesn't hit well enough to start.  Uribe's 20 projected homers would be very welcome to Mariners fans.

17. Carlos Pena - Nationals.  A player to watch right here.  Pena couldn't even bat .200 in 2010 but still hit 28 homers.  With his stock taking a big hit with the low average, Pena could easily regain his status as one of the American League's best first basemen as he plays the field well and led the AL in homers with 39 in 2009.

18. Jim Thome - Twins.  For all Thome did for the Twins, he should be given one more year as the DH.  Worst case scenario, Thome ends up being traded at the deadline.

19. Vladimir Guerrero - Rangers.  Although the Rangers declined their $9 million option on Guerrero, they want him back.  Guerrero will likely have to take a pay cut if he stays with the Rangers, but he is inclined to stay while Texas is a winner.

20. Manny Ramirez - Athletics.  This may seem surprising, but it shouldn't be considering the man at the controls of the A's.  GM Billy Beane, known for his uncommon baseball wits and surprising signings, will bring in the bat.  Manny has more left in that bat than he showed with the White Sox, and a fresh start in his first small market since Cleveland should do him well.

21. Magglio Ordonez - Blue Jays.  As evidenced by their signing of Frank Thomas in 2007, the Jays are willing to roll the dice on veterans past their prime.  Playing half the season of 2010, he surprised many with the return of his power that escaped him in 2009.  His 37 year old bat seems to have plenty in it as he still hit .300 in 2010 for the 10th time in the last 12 seasons.  Expect a one or two year deal.

22. Orlando Hudson - Padres.  A free agent again, the O-Dog will end up in San Diego because of his positive attitude and veteran status among a very young team.  Hudson is very consistent and the Padres need to improve on their team batting average, something he can help the team with.

23. Derrek Lee - Brewers.  With Prince Fielder very likely to be traded, this trade would give Milwaukee an able bat to replace some of Fielder's production.  Lee can be picked up with a discount as his stock fell after a disappointing 2010.  The Orioles and Diamondbacks have also been mentioned.

24. Lance Berkman - Mariners.  It's no secret the Big Puma's bat has faded significantly.  He could provide a little value, though, as whatever he'll hit is most definitely better than whoever else the Mariners could start.  With Berkman, though, there are lots of teams that have a little interest; no front runners.

25. Andy Pettitte - Yankees.  Right now, he's playing the whole 'I need to be with my family' card but the truth is this guy is a true ballplayer and loves the game.  The Yankees would love to have him because amazingly he keeps returning and pitching well.  If he's not out there on a roster by Opening Day, I will be shocked.

26. Jon Garland - Orioles.  The front office might finally get something right and improve the effort to find talent outside of the organization while they have the opportunity.  Baltimore is a team that holds momentum this offseason with their strong finish under Buck Showalter, and this signing would go a long way towards taming the kids on the staff and transforming them into pitchers.  

27. A.J. Pierzynski - Red Sox.  Pierzynski was the favorite to join the Florida Marlins, but they picked the Red Sox's top option in John Buck.  The Red Sox will take Pierzynski instead, providing great insurance for Jason Varitek.  Pierzynski was quoted as saying the Red Sox, among a few other teams, "would all be good fits."

28. Miguel Olivo - Dodgers.  Whatever happened to Russell Martin, it sounds like the Dodgers have had with him.  Olivo is one of the best offensive catchers in baseball and plays in small, usually losing markets which is why he flies under the radar so much.  What a treat, now he gets to play for a contender.

29. John Buck - Marlins.  Speaking of early birds, the Marlins and Buck beat me to this post and agreed to a three year deal already earlier this week.  Buck was the huge favorite to land the Red Sox job, but instead takes Florida where he's the best catcher they have seen since Ivan Rodriguez.

30. Javier Vazquez - Nationals.  Vazquez would enjoy going back to the National League after another unsuccessful year with the Yankees.  He also expressed interest in the Nationals, so they have to be considered the favorite.  If they could get him, he would become the best pitcher in the history of the Nationals portion of the franchise.

31. Scott Downs - Yankees.  Playing for the Blue Jays, the Yankees have seen Downs a lot.  Thus increasing his chances of becoming one.  The race for Downs will go between the Red Sox and Yankees, but remember which team has seemingly unlimited resources.  Hint, not the Red Sox.

32. J.J. Putz - Dodgers.  After having a mid career crisis with the Mets that included injuries, Putz has gotten his stuff back.  The Dodgers use their bullpen more than almost every team in the league and those cannot go to George Sherrill again, whose 6.69 ERA was surprising and just terrible.  Putz should replace him behind Jonathan Broxton, or replace him in the event of another period of struggle for Broxton.

33. Brian Fuentes - Braves.  Atlanta already has a great bullpen, but they could use a veteran to close games and need a closer after the retirement of Billy Wagner.  Fuentes blows more than a few saves, but thankfully they have the depth to cover the void.

34. Adam LaRoche - Orioles.  Much like Olivo, LaRoche usually is playing on losing and/or small market teams and isn't talked about much.  His value is real, however, and he is drawing interest from Orioles, Brewers, Cubs, Giants, and Diamondbacks just to name a few.

35. Hisanori Takahashi - Phillies.  Another under the radar pitcher, Takahashi could start for the Phillies if they want him to.  The Phillies like his flexibility, but so do the Nationals, Orioles, and Mariners.

36. Pat Burrell - Braves.  The Giants, unlike the Rays, saw that Burrell can still hit.  They also saw he still can't run or field.  The Braves outfield was a weakness last season but the addition of Burrell, along with the move of Martin Prado, could make it better.  The Padres need a slugger though, and so do the Mariners.

37. Joaquin Benoit - Rays.  The Rays are in serious trouble as their top six relievers are free agents.  If the Rays could bring back one of them, however, it probably would be Benoit who was unhittable in 2010.  Interest is not lacking by any means, the Tigers, Red Sox, and Yankees all want him and the Rays will need a great offer to compete with the bigger market teams.

38. Kevin Millwood - Brewers.  The Brewers are constantly on the hunt for pitching and the signing of Randy Wolf last offseason didn't go as well as planned.  Millwood is just the kind of pitcher the Brewers would sign, a veteran whose price tag is cut because of his struggles in Baltimore and a bad contract in Texas.  The Royals, Mariners, Pirates, and Padres are four teams that also want him, but only one is a contender and with all these offers Millwood can probably choose where he wants to go.

39. Kevin Correia - Pirates.  Pittsburgh has no pitching pretty much, and although Correia's 4.57 career ERA hardly makes him a dependable veteran, he's better than nothing.  Correia could be a good #5 starter on a good team, although the odds of a good team spending money in free agency on a #5 starter is unlikely.  The Pirates need anyone to help Paul Maholm in the rotation.

40. Arthur Rhodes - Reds.  As long as he is pitching well, there's no reason for the Reds to deny the 41 year old reliever.  The Reds need the bullpen stacked with guys who can pitch around Aroldis Chapman, their top reliever who threw the fastest pitch in history in 2010.  Many teams could use the lefty, the Phillies being one, but the Reds are the most likely to keep him.


        

Opening Day TV Schedule?

There are sort of two Opening Days in 2011, with 10 teams opening on Thursday, March 31 and 20 teams opening on Friday, April 1.  In the past ESPN has carried the Sunday night season opening game, last year it being the Yankees-Red Sox as the only game that day.  On Monday ESPN and ESPN2 combined to show five Opening Day games, as is tradition.  For the new schedule layout that begins on a Thursday, however, the new TV alignment has yet to be arranged.  So I guess I have nothing to go off of besides last year's format, but I'm changing the alignment tentatively with two games on the first day, three on the second.  This post is to show the best games of the two Opening Days, and say which should be on ESPN.  The 2011 schedule is here and I choose two games from the Thursday games and three from the Friday games.



Thursday games:


Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
ESPN likes to show the home opener in Cincinnati, an event that has occurred in Cincinnati every year since 1901 except 1966.  The tradition behind it is huge for Reds fans, and Great American Ball Park hosted its first playoff game last season.  The Brewers, on the other hand, are a team that probably won't contend in 2011 for the same reason as 2010, the fact that they really don't have any pitching.  The small dimensions at Great American with the power hitters from both teams should make for an interesting game.

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
This game just barely beat out San Diego at St. Louis, but that game would have resulted in lower ratings.  The Tigers are going to spend this offseason and could end up with someone like Victor Martinez or Carl Crawford.  As the Tigers should be a better team in 2011, the Yankees will be good like always and looking to redeem themselves after the failure that was 2010 where they lost in the ALCS (of course, only to they Yankees was that failure).


Friday games:


Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays may be the most exciting offensive team in the country, leading baseball in homers in 2010 and fielding a lineup stacked with stars.  The pitching is mediocre and without an ace, but the Jays always hang around and win 85 or so games.  This will be an interesting game against Minnesota, the team that plays the game so well with a tremendous organization but has failed awfully in the playoffs this decade (no wonder they haven't received the criticism they deserve).  Interesting matchup.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
The opener for the World Champion Giants would be interesting enough, but adding it to Dodger Stadium against the hated rival Los Angeles, now this is a great game.  The Dodgers can still contend in 2011 after NLCS appearances in 2008 and 2009.  The Giants will likely lose a few players to free agency, so this will be a good first test.

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
This matchup makes fans mouths water.  After an amazing series last season in Texas, including a walk-off homer from Nelson Cruz in the 13th in a 9-9 game, these two teams showed that the power on power down south is something to behold.  Red Sox GM Theo Epstein will reshape his team to get back to the playoffs, so they will be improved.  The franchise popularity of the Rangers was at an all time high when they got to the World Series, and even though they lost, the Rangers will be a great team next year and for a while.

A True Leeder

Since finishing 3rd in MVP voting in 2005 after winning the batting title and belting 46 HR, Derrek Lee was looked upon as a disappointment from 2006-08.  In 2009, he revitalized himself as a power hitter in the middle of the Cubs lineup, hitting 35 HR and 111 RBI.  Although I have always been a fan of the 6-5 Lee, I admit there were times I became very frustrated with him grounding into double plays and not being able to push the fly balls over the wall.  In 2008, it appeared he was back because he hit around 15 HR in April and May combined, on pace for an impressive 45, but the power hit hibernation over the summer and he finished with only 20.  The one thing Cub fans forget, however, is the how important his presence is on the Cubs.  He is a calm, cool leader in the clubhouse and many young players coming through the system have learned a lot from his practice on and off the field.  Many atheltes in professional sports refuse to watch ESPN or read the Sports section of the local paper because it keeps a more positive influence around your mind and the rest of the team.  This is understandable; you wouldn't want to read articles that criticize what you do for a living and make judgements about your career and motivation, etc.  However, Lee doesn't care and reads it anyway.  He doesn't take offense or allow his opinions to be changed from the media, but rather reads it like a fan.  If there is an article the questions his ability, I'm sure he either uses that as motivation to try harder or he ignores it and keeps doing what he does.

In my opinion, first base is the second most important position on the field, behind center field.  The first baseman, first of all, needs to be physically able to get outs and help his defense by picking balls out of the dirt and having enough size to reach and snag errant throws, saving errors and baserunners.  Second of all, he needs to lead the team.  This means doing what Lee does every day; setting an example on defense, giving a jolt of spirit to the guys even when being destroyed out there, listening to each and every individual player, not being afraid to give advice when deemed necessary, and knowing that winning goes before fame and money.  In other words, understanding the winning is the number one priority of everyone involved in the game and the team, and doing everything possible to achieve that goal.

Having doubts about the importance of first base theory?  I can't blame you.  But I looked around at teams that have had success recently, and it is apparent that there is plenty of truth.

-The Rays, surprise AL Pennant winners of 2008 and perennial winners for some time to come, have been anchored by powerful 1B Carlos Peña, and he leads the younger nucleus of Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist, and Evan Longoria.  Until the 2008 transformation, the Rays never came close to a winning record.  Peña arrived in 2007.

-The Phillies, back-to-back NL Champions and the Rays' opponent in the 2008 World Series, certainly have a gift in 1B Ryan Howard.  The Phillies popped back on the baseball radar in 2006 after consistently winning all decade but usually not sniffing the playoffs because of the Braves' ridiculous streak of divison titles.  In fact, the Phillies hadn't made the playoffs since their 1980 World Series run and naturally the Philly fans were never happy.  But then this kid named Ryan Howard comes along and sends 58 baseball into orbit (or the bleachers) and now the Phillies really had some potential to upend the Braves and the Mets, who had won the division in 2006.  Sure enough, the Phillies have won three division titles in a row and Howard is the face of the franchise.

-The Cardinals were a no-brainer here.  Albert Pujols is the best hitter to set foot on this planet, unquestionably the leader of the Cardinals.  They were usually among the NL's best throughout the early and mid 2000's, except for a bump in the road called 2006.  At just 83-78 (ironically the Cubs' 2009 record), the redbirds marched into the playoffs with horrible momentum.  Oh yeah, they also happened to win the World Series that year.  Now with Matt Holliday in the order, the birds might be flying high for a while.

-The Yankees have Mark Teixeira.  Not too bad.  Possibly overlooked because of the Yankee legends that still inhabit Yankee Stadium, this dude is a key cog in the winning formula.  The first year he arrived, they won the Series.

-Who doesn't love the Swinging Padre logo that the Padres hold sacred?  The Padres are always an interesting team because of their ability to harvest young talent in a hurry and make all their pitchers look like aces in Petco Park.  The Padres were never the team to win 100 games and lead the NL in a whole bunch fo categories, but I'm pretty sure 1B Adrian Gonzalez had a lot to do with the Padres making the postseason in three straight years from 2005-2007 (I consider the one-game tiebreaker with the Rockies in 07 as playoffs).  Okay, fine, I know Gonzalez wasn't called up for real until 2006.  Still though, there is a point.  Now the Padres are leading the NL West and continue to prove doubters wrong with every step as more young talent pours into Petco and they all get schooled (in a good way) by the man, Gonzalez.

-The Twins, completely overpublicized because of homegrown Joe Mauer, probably have the most underrated first bagger in the league.  Justin Morneau is a patient (through 21 games, he leads baseball with 21 walks and a ridiculous .490 OBP) and powerful (22 or more homers the past five seasons) hitter and a great defender, and that skill is also overlooked.

-Although this era has ended in Flushing, the Mets run from 2006-2008 was very successful and was sparked by the big three: David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Delgado.  Delgado was getting old when he arrived in New York, so of course the media was all over him about it.  He quickly became a fan favorite in 2006, then an enemy after a disappointing 2007, then a hero in 2008 after a series of clutch hits.  In the tornado of negativity that was 2009 for the Mets, Delgado had to sit back and watch while his team surprisingly lost 92 games.  The Mets now lead the NL East, but Delgado is gone and a partial new generation has been welcomed into Citi Field.

None of the guys on this list are troublemakers and all are critical to their teams.  First base has never been more important to baseball teams, and the Cubs are extremely lucky to have a guy like Derrek Lee.  Resigning him after this season, his free agent year, is absolutely the number one priority in the offseason.  Go Cubs!