The 2011 All-Division Team, Part 5: AL West

AL West C: Mike Napoli

Part 5 of 6: American League West


These teams have it easy.  Each NL Central winner had to be compared against each of the other five teams' player at that positon.  In the AL West, however, there are only four teams, meaning the odds of winning are increased.  Last season, six Rangers (Micheal Young, Elvis Andrus, Vladimir Guerrero, Josh Hamilton, Neftali Feliz, and Nelson Cruz) all took home awards.  Will the Rangers sweep through the division again?  Time to find out!

C Mike Napoli, TEX (2nd, first with Rangers)
The Angels are probably regretting trading Napoli away within their own division.  Wait a minute...they didn't!  In what has become a footnote now, Napoli was a part of the Vernon Wells trade to Toronto, but the Jays turned around and swung him to Texas for Frank Francisco just a few days later.  Playing for the Texas Rangers and against his former team 18 times a year now, Napoli had one of the best offensive seasons ever for a catcher.  If he had gotten a full season's worth of at-bats, it easily would have rivaled any of Mike Piazza's best campaigns.  Instead, Napoli, playing in just 113 games due to injury, hit 'only' 30 homers and 75 RBIs.  His .320 average and .414 OBP are unheard of for a catcher, and his .631 slugging percentage would have led MLB, however he does not have enough at-bats to qualify.  No wonder the fans chant his name so much in Arlington.
Competition: Jeff Mathis (LAA), Kurt Suzuki (OAK), and Miguel Olivo (SEA).

1B Mark Trumbo, LAA
The big Trumbo came out of nowhere and took on the AL while manning first base in Anaheim, much like teammate Kendrys Morales did two years ago.  The only difference is Morales can and does walk with any regularity whatsoever.  Trumbo and his 25 walks?  Nope.  Luckily, his 29 home runs got the Angels going and kept them in the shadows of contention all season until a late surge fell short.  The fan favorite got AL Rookie of the Year voting and has an impressive power swing, but will need to make adjustments if he was to continue to have success.
Competition: Mitch Moreland (TEX), Justin Smoak (SEA), and Daric Barton (OAK).

AL West 2B: Ian Kinsler
Don't try this at home, kids.

2B Ian Kinsler, TEX
In the healthiest season of his career, Kinsler put together his best season yet.  Returning to 30-30 form that eluded him in an injury-riddled 2010, he walked 27 times more than he ever had in a season.  It's hard for me to quantify how great of an overall player Kinsler really is.  I mean how often do second basemen hit 30 home runs?  Most importantly, though, Kinsler is still one of the longest tenured on these championship contending Rangers teams and is a definite team leader, representing his entire state (the Astros don't count).
Competition: Jemile Weeks (OAK), Howie Kendrick (LAA), and Dustin Ackley (SEA).

3B Adrian Beltre, TEX (2nd, first with Rangers)
As if offense was ever a problem for the Texas Rangers, GM Jon Daniels swept in during the offseason and snatched Beltre, a big surprise to many who thought he'd go to the Angels or back to the Red Sox. The freeswinger landed in Arlington and earned every penny in his first season there, hitting 32 homers and 105 RBIs in about 4/5 of a full season.  Sure the ballpark and lineup protection help, but that shouldn't take away from his .296 batting average.  With an offense this great, you could almost imagine them not needing any pitching.
Competition: Chone Figgins (SEA), Alberto Callaspo (LAA), and Scott Sizemore (OAK).

SS Erick Aybar, LAA
In the past two seasons, the Angels have not been the same team they were for almost all of the 2000s.  During that time the Angels were known for effectively using smallball mechanics and playing the game fundamentally well, as directed by manager Mike Scioscia.  Recently, though, they haven't had the same strong fielding and baserunning skills.  Aybar, though, was a holdout of the issue.  Erick Aybar is fast and agile which allows him to play shortstop well.  I've seen an improvement in his hitting skills for average, and he was 30-for-36 in steal attempts; clearly he's running on the right counts.  Oh, and now he gets to play with Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson.  
Competition: Elvis Andrus (TEX), Cliff Pennington (OAK), and Brendan Ryan (SEA).

AL West LF: Josh Willingham

LF Josh Willingham, OAK
Willingham was GM Billy Beane's biggest move last winter, and he gave the A's pretty much everything they could've asked for.  Although his one season in Oakland proved a 'one-and-out' as Willingham has signed with Twins now, his run production skills were not lost on a team that seems to always be in search of such skills.  His 29 home runs, including 15 at the dreaded O.co Coliseum (their new corporate naming rights deal is a website?  Really?  Who are these guys, the Phoenix Coyotes?), were the only major power source on the team.  In fact, his 15 homers at home were more than any other teammates' total - home or road.  Oh, and Willingham also had 26 RBIs more than anyone else on the team.
Competition: Vernon Wells (LAA), Trayvon Robinson (SEA), and David Murphy (TEX).

CF Josh Hamilton, TEX (2nd)
It wasn't quite MVP quality like 2010 was, but J-Ham's 2011 season was notable again for significant success but also the continued abundance of injury.  This time injury struck almost right away, as Hamilton was injured in Detroit during the second week of the season.  He still batted .298 and slugged .536 with 94 RBIs in only 121 games, but I still get the feeling that Hamilton has not achieved his full potential in any of his four 'full' seasons with the Rangers.  Even so, he hit what should have been one of the biggest homers in World Series history with his extra-inning blast in Game 6 to take the lead.  However, the Rangers - much like Hamilton - came up short again.
Competition: Peter Bourjos (LAA), Franklin Gutierrez (SEA), and Coco Crisp (OAK).

RF Nelson Cruz, TEX (2nd)
Nelly!  Cruz hit 29 homers in about 4/5 of a full season, playing in 124 games (it seems like every Ranger only played 4/5).  More notably, however, was that he collected 14 hits in 17 playoff games.  Eight of those 14 hits were home runs.  The October power came at Reggie Jackson levels this season. In the regular season, Cruz gave the Rangers an alternative, low-key power threat.  He's an undoubtedly freeswinging slugger; Cruz is going to hit the ball hard somewhere.
Competition: Ichiro Suzuki (SEA), Torii Hunter (LAA), and David DeJesus (OAK).

AL West DH: Michael Young
The best player in franchise history,
Michael Young is Mr. Ranger.

DH Michael Young, TEX (2nd)
Finally, a fully healthy Ranger!  If there is anyone on the Rangers invincible to injury, it has to be Young; he has missed significant time in only one year in the last decade.  He also silenced critics who suggested his batting skills were declining in 2010 with another career year, collecting over 200 hits for a .338 batting average.  You also know a guy is clutch and a key run producer when he gets over 100 RBIs with only 11 homers, as did Young in 2011.  And instead of being traded to a mediocre Rockies team, Young got to lead his franchise to another World Series.  Not too bad, I'd say.
Competition: Bobby Abreu (LAA), Casper Wells (SEA), and Hideki Matsui (OAK).

SP C.J. Wilson, TEX
Wilson must be the Angels' revenge for watching Napoli burn them in 2011.  After only his second full season as a starter in the Majors, Wilson jumped ship for the Angels in a mega deal.  Before you jump on the overrated bandwagon like I did at the time of the signing, consider that Wilson had an ERA on the road nearly a run better than at home.  Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is one of the worst ballparks for pitchers to pitch in in the entire league, and the move to Angel Stadium should feel nice and spacious.  Ignoring his awful postseason, Wilson struck out over 200 in over 200 innings and kept his overall hits allowed total low.  I think these factors add up to a good, although not great, first season in Anaheim.  If he can't shake off that postseason in which is WHIP was over 1.7, he's going to have some major problems.
Competition: Jered Weaver (LAA), Felix Hernandez (SEA), and Trevor Cahill (OAK).

CP Brandon League, SEA
This 28-year-old doesn't come off as your typical shutdown closer, but he gave the Mariners some real value out of the bullpen, for whatever it's worth on that team.  League saved 37 of Seattle's 67 wins last season and walked only 10 in over 60 innings pitched.  He struck out a decent amount and kept his WHIP low, putting together a decent season in a place where no one will appreciate it.  But he's definitely the best in the division, especially when you consider that he played a full season (unlike Andrew Bailey), kept his blown saves in the single digits (unlike Jordan Walden), and didn't blow a World Series (sorry, Neftali Feliz).  Nothing personal guys....
Competition: Walden (LAA), Feliz (TEX), and Bailey (OAK).


Why, yes, the Rangers get seven awards this year.  Perhaps more notably, though, was that I was able to find a winner out of those 95-loss Mariners.  Way to go, Brandon League!
    

"The Most Inexplicable Trade Ever?"

Now that the well-publicized Vernon Wells to the Angels for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera has sunk in for more than a week, I think it's time we compare.  Is this deal the worst trade of the offseason?  Of the decade?  Ever?

The worst trade in the recent history of baseball before the Wells deal is, in my opinion, when the Expos traded Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore to the Indians for Bartolo Colon back in 2002.  Colon had won 75 games over the past six seasons with the Indians, while none between Phillips, Lee, or Sizemore had even debuted in the Major Leagues.  Sizemore was just 19 at the time.  Colon went on to win 10 games for the Expos in 2004, then leave as a free agent that very offseason.  His WAR for that half season was 2.3.  In their respective careers, Phillips, Lee, and Sizemore have totaled a 51.9 WAR in the Major Leagues, although the Indians trade Phillips and eventually Lee also.  The bottom line is that the Expos sent their three best prospects for just one player in return, a 'rental' at that, seeing as how they knew Colon would be a free agent after that very season.  Clearly, it wasn't worth it.

Brandon Phillips has not gotten the most attention out there, but he quietly produces on the now-contending Reds.  His best season came in 2007, his second full season manning second base for Cincinnati in which he had a 30-30 offensive season, earning him some MVP votes.  He's been a consistent 20-20 player since 2006, but his run production took a step backward in 2010.  He was also thrown out 12 times to only 16 steals, but the 30 year old has lots of time to keep producing for the Reds.  His attitude and teammate chemistry make him a very valuable part to a Cincinnati Reds team that now depends on his leadership to contend.

Cliff Lee has arguably been in more trade/free agency rumors than any other player since 2009.  Playing for four teams in two seasons, Lee has become quite the hot commodity over this time.  Perhaps his most highly regarded trait is his control, something GMs scramble to acquire.  Lee walked just 61 in 444 innings between 2009 and 2010.  This is exactly the player Lee could have become playing for the Nationals, assuming they could sign him to an extension.  In 2005, just three years after the trade, Lee finished fourth in Cy Young voting with an 18-5 record and a 3.79 ERA.  The 2005 Nationals were a contending team in the first half, but lacked rotation depth and faded in the second half so Lee would have probably helped them become a winner.

Grady Sizemore was a 20-20 player in his first full season in 2005, at the age of 22.  He continued this trend until 2008, when he improved to 30-30.  From 2004-2007, he had a 3.7 defensive WAR, a signature characteristic of a five tool outfielder.  Oh, and he also had a 17.2 WAR over that time, followed by a 5.3 in 2008.  Although injuries have derailed his performance the last two seasons, Sizemore was arguably the best outfielder of the mid 2000s.  His combination of power, speed, defense, and enthusiasm for the game were enough to call him probably one of the best players in baseball as well.

Meanwhile, Bartolo Colon's career with his new team lasted a full three months and 17 starts.  The highlight of his tenure with Montreal came on August 19, 2002, when he shut out the Padres at home allowing two hits and two walks on 95 pitches.  Besides that and Colon's 10 wins in that second half, not much came to the Expos in this deal.  Colon signed with the White Sox in the offseason and good season there in 2003, and the Expos were left with nothing.  Essentially, the Expos gave up three future All-Stars in exchange for half a season from a decent starter in a season where the Expos never came close to the playoffs.

While that trade looks bad because Colon was gone in half a season and the other three are having great careers, Vernon Wells will probably have a decent career for quite some time on the Angels.  The fact that Wells is a good player is not being disputed by many; this trade looks worse on paper.  Wells' salary will not make his production worth it, and the Angels gave up the two following players:

Mike Napoli hit 20 homers for the third straight season in 2010, keeping up his reputation as a great power hitter for a catcher.  Napoli has always been a minus defensively, but his bat makes him a valuable commodity to a contending team, especially since power out of the catcher spot is hard to find.  Immediately after being traded to Toronto, the Blue Jays turned around and swung him to Texas.  Napoli is a great player to have on a winning team, which the Rangers figure to be in 2011.

Juan Rivera has also always been a negative defensively, but an effective player nonetheless.  Rivera had his best season in 2009, hitting 25 homers and 88 RBI in 138 games.  He doesn't walk much and probably won't make a big overall impact on a lineup on his own, making his best role a fourth outfielder or third outfielder subject to frequent substitution.

To be sure, Vernon Wells has had a nice career.  He was a consistent cog in the Toronto outfield for almost the entire 2000s.  From 2002-2010, Wells averaged .279 with 25 homers, 89 RBI, 9 steals, and a total 28.0 offensive WAR over that time period.  Despite two subpar seasons in 2007 and 2009, it's hard to look at the stat sheet and not realize he was a great player for some time.  

Now here's where it gets really, really ugly.  Vernon Wells enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2010, swatting 31 homers and 88 RBI.  But even that isn't good enough to live up to his contract.  The 32 year old Wells hit 16 or less homers in both 2007 and 2009 (in full seasons), providing for a real head scratcher as to why the Blue Jays would reward a 'slugger' with those gaping holes in the stat sheet with 7 years, $126 million.  Although the deal was signed in December 2006, it didn't go into effect until 2010, the first year of the deal.  Wells made over $15 million in 2010, but it gets worse.  Wells' deal runs for four more seasons, so he'll be 35 at the end, over which time the Angels are due to pay him around  $86 million.  In 2011, he's due $23 million and will be due $21 million in 2012, 2013, and 2014.  The $23 million he will make next season was higher than any non-Yankee in baseball.  Miguel Cabrera was the only player not playing in New York to earn $20 million in 2010, giving you an idea of what Wells' salary will be compared to.  Remember, although Wells has had some good seasons like 2010, he had two very bad seasons for a player who is being paid to drive the ball and these two seasons were recent.  Look at his stats page, scroll down to the Standard Batting chart, and notice the two seasons I've highlighted in blue.

So he's getting paid.  Like seriously paid.  Big time dough.  All that cash for a guy who's being paid for the run production, but is well past his peak and proof of that comes in the form of those two awful seasons that were 2007 and 2009.  And all that cash for a guy who had his best season, like, eight years ago.  His career highs in games, at-bats, plate appearances, runs, hits, doubles, homers (only 33), RBI, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, total bases, and even times hit by pitch, all came in 2003.  In 2003, he had lineup protection in Carlos Delgado behind him and table setters in Frank Catalanotto and Shannon Stewart in front of him, all three of whom are now out of the Majors.  Heading to the Angels, his only table setters will likely be Howie Kendrick and/or Erick Aybar, and his only lineup protection will be Torii Hunter.  The setup was better on the Blue Jays, and although a change of scenery could help him, his ceiling is low because there's no chance he will do much better than his 2010 output, if he even gets to that mark.  His career high of 33 homers in 2003 is nowhere near the career highs of the sluggers he is being to hit like.

In conclusion, I think the Vernon Wells trade is the worst trade of recent baseball history, worse than the Bartolo Colon deal.  Angels GM Tony Reagins had taken a lot of criticism nationwide for his whiffs on Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Beltre.  This move was, without doubt, a desperation move to try to compensate for missing on those elite players.  But not only does Reagins have to give up two decent players in Napoli and Rivera, he is now stuck with what most baseball experts cite as 'baseball's most untradeable player' in Wells and his enormous contract.  In the Bartolo Colon trade of 2002, Colon was gone by that offseason and although this didn't give the Expos much value, it also didn't tie down their future, either.  Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips all went on to be great players, but it's unlikely the Expos would have been able to resign all three or even two once they became established stars.  And now the Angels will have limited financial flexibility for at least the next offseason due to this contract monstrosity.  So while Wells may be smiling ear to ear to be out of Toronto where he never made the playoffs, Reagins won't be in four years.                

Hot Stove Buzz #4

First, I hope everyone had an enjoyable and restful holiday season.  Second, I apologize for the recent lack of posts and I can guarantee that more are coming- and soon.  The news feed from baseball's offseason has slowed considerably, which has been a factor in the recent lack of posts.  However, big news out of Baltimore, for Cubs fans at least, in the Orioles' signing of first baseman Derrek Lee.  With newly-acquired power-hitting third baseman Mark Reynolds on the other side of the infield, the Orioles now, believe it or not, look like a team that will make a bang on offense.  Lee, of course, spent seven seasons with the Cubs before being traded to the Braves in 2010 and becoming a free agent.

-The Angels may have just looked at strike three.  Rumors had the Rangers, not their division rival Angels, getting third baseman Adrian Beltre in a big multiyear deal.  According to the same rumors, however, Monday and Sunday were two very different days in these negotiations.  Now they appear to be much farther away from a deal than was originally thought.  Folks, this one could take a while.

-The Rangers signed Brandon Webb, meaning the Cubs didn't.  However, the search for veteran middle-of-the-rotation starters continues for the Cubbies, as this is possibly our biggest need remaining.

-The Pirates signed Garrett Atkins.  Now I know I trashed Pittsburgh's signing of Lyle Overbay a couple weeks ago, but this makes things interesting.  If they could get a sample of the production Atkins used to come up for Colorado, Atkins and Overbay could be an effective combo.  It's a shame to see two formerly great veterans struggle to fall out of relevance like they have, but that's baseball and they should be glad to have a new opportunity in the Steel City.

-In today's biggest news, the Rockies gave Carlos Gonzalez a big extension for 7 years and $80 million.  The first thing that came to my mind was, wow, smart move by the Rockies.  Then I wondered, wait, now they've signed two (Troy Tulowitzki) franchise players to huge extensions?  That's nearly unheard of especially for a team like the Rockies who have signed big contracts (Todd Helton, Mike Hampton), but haven't done two in the same offseason.  Also, I'm pretty sure the Rockies wanted this extension done right now before he has another elite season because his stock will raise and he would probably demand more by then.  As far as contract extensions go, the Rockies successfully pulled off a nice little, but huge, budget shopping deal.

-The Padres signed Brad Hawpe.  This may be surprising based on his high strikeout totals and somewhat funky batting stance and swing, but Hawpe, until 2010, has been a great average hitter his whole career.  Also, excluding 2010 again, he has been very consistent in the power numbers.  Somewhere in the mid-20s in his homer range and mid-80s in his runs batted in range.

-The Blue Jays signed Chad Cordero, a name you may have forgotten.  Cordero was an elite reliever from 2004-2007 closing games from 2005 onward and could arguably be called the best player during the Nationals' three-year stay at RFK Stadium.  When the Nats moved to Nationals Park in 2008, he sort of was left behind.  A surgery and recovery complications limited him since and he has not been good at all in the very limited time he has pitched in the last three years.  The Blue Jays, watching their division improve around them, need to stack up as many moves as they can to keep up.  This is a good piece to the puzzle.

-The Jays didn't stop there, getting the veteran reliever Octavio Dotel in a free agent signing as well.  Besides being one of the most overrated players on the video game series MLB: The Show, Dotel is 36 and didn't have a great 2010 between three teams.  Interestingly though, Dotel still has the strikeout stuff that made his career owning a career 10.9 K/9 ratio.  In 2010, that ratio was 10.5 K/9, just a tick below.  Remember the Jays lost elite setup man Scott Downs in free agency, but could have a short term replacement right here.

-The Reds signed a trainwreck of an outfielder who will never live up to his potential Jeremy Hermida to a minor league deal, suggesting he will just be a backup plan on the 2011 Reds.  Hermida had high expectations coming up with the Marlins about four years ago, but has never really taken the next step.  He is stuck at Tyler Colvin stat levels, but with more strikeouts and without the rookie benefit-of-the-doubt factor.


 

The Mariners' Hunt to Regain Seattle

In 1997, led by manager Lou Piniella, center fielder Ken Griffey Jr., shortstop Alex Rodriguez, and designated hitter Edgar Martinez and ace Randy Johnson, the Seattle Mariners won the American League West for only the second time in franchise history but the second time in three seasons.  They would lose to the Baltimore Orioles in the ALDS, but the winning group could do something the 2010 Mariners could not: score runs.  This 1997 team scored an incredible 925 runs, a total very few teams can accomplish.  This Mariners team was popular: they had the most hyped prospect in the history of baseball in Rodriguez, a fan favorite in Martinez, a power bat in Jay Buhner, and the face of baseball in Griffey Jr.  Playing in the enormous Kingdome in Seattle, the fan base started showing up and making the place a notorious bandbox, especially during Game 5 of the 1995 ALDS against the Yankees where the Mariners won and advanced to the ALCS off a historic walk-off double by Martinez.  The Kingdome had plenty of issues, however, and in midseason of a mediocre 1999 season the Mariners moved into shiny new Safeco Field.  Seattle won the wild card in 2000 with 91 wins, setting up an incredible 116 win season in Ichiro Suzuki's rookie season of 2001.  The heavy favorite to win the pennant in the playoffs, they were eliminated by the Yankees in the ALCS.

That would be Seattle's last playoff appearance to this day, and although the Mariners won 93 games both of the next two seasons, they missed the playoffs and the feeling changed.  Gone were Buhner, Griffey Jr., and Rodriguez, and the team character that stuffed the rowdy Kingdome had gone missing.  Ichiro Suzuki was a perennial All-Star through all of this, but as time went on he became the only star remaining.  After scoring 927 runs in 2001, the Mariners haven't scored even 800 runs since 2002.  Adrian Beltre never lived up to expectations he set during a huge 48 homer season with the Dodgers in 2004, and a post-40-year-old Jamie Moyer served as ace until they had a better option in Felix Hernandez.

In 2007 the Mariners won 88 games, leading in the wild card race until a 10 game losing steak down the stretch doomed them.  The team wasn't exciting enough to wake up the Seattle fans, however, ranking just 16th in attendance.  A terrible season in 2008, with 101 losses, was followed by a surprising 85 win team in 2009.  Signs of life came from this Mariner team; Ken Griffey Jr. returned to finish his career where it all started and hit 19 homers as a pleasant surprise.  Felix Hernandez won 19 games and was an AL Cy Young Award finalist, all under new manager Don Wakamatsu.  A new sabermetric obsession over fielding and range statistics enthralled the baseball stat world, and the Mariners were widely viewed as the best fielding team in the country.  Stat gurus and baseball experts alike were starting to warm up on the Mariners to be the team to leapfrog the Angels in the AL West to win the division.

Picked by many as the surprise team in baseball, the Mariners didn't disappoint.  They were surprising, for the absolute opposite reason.  Mediocre for the first two months (18-31), an absolutely terrible June doomed their season.  The Mariners went 6-22 in June, scoring on 75 runs or about 2.68 runs per game.  Over the entire season they were shut out 15 times.  Besides Ichiro's .315 batting average, they were led by Chone Figgins' .259.  Russell Branyan led the team in homers with just 15, but he only played 57 games for the Mariners after being traded from the Indians.  Milton Bradley had a minimal effect on the team, which was probably a good thing, but he essentially wasted his high salary and the at-bats he did get in 73 games.  The team RBI leader was Franklin Gutierrez with a ridiculous 64.  The Mariners finished last in Major League Baseball in batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, total bases, runs, hits, doubles, triples, homers, and runs batted in.  This was a team that didn't have a chance to win unless Felix Hernandez was on top of his game and not giving up any runs, and the Mariners would be lucky to score two.  Unfortunately for Seattle, the fans had nothing to be excited about except Seahawks training camp.  The city forgot about the team last season, and the fans can't be blamed.  Seattle forgot about the Mariners, and the Mariners did nothing to fix it.

Earlier today, Hernandez won the AL Cy Young Award.  Holding a record of 13-12, average for sure, Hernandez had by far the least wins by any pitcher winning the award.  How did he get so few wins?  The offense.  Hernandez had little to zero margin for error because if he wasn't going to shut down the opponent, the Mariners couldn't win.  His 2.27 ERA would have suggested an 18-7 record or something similar.  Looking forward, the Mariners need to address this problem.  Safeco Field is a pitchers park and the franchise has committed to pitching and defense, but that doesn't work if all the players are defense-first and no one takes responsibility offensively.  They also need offense for another reason: the fan base.  Baseball traditionalists enjoy pitchers duels, but today's generation of baseball fans want to see some offense most of the time.  With the bombers of the Kingdome in the late 90s like Griffey Jr., Martinez, Buhner, and Bret Boone the fan base got behind the team.  This is a goal the Mariners need to focus on regaining the city that fell in love with them, or will remain in infamy.  

2010-2011 Free Agency Predictions

The following players are the best of the best out there this offseason, the top free agents of the 2010-2011 Hot Stove.  Here are my predictions on where they go with a short explanation.  These predictions are very tough because when it comes right down to it any team with budget room has a shot to sign a guy, as I have learned from past experience (see: Matt Holliday, Athletics 2009 and Adam Dunn, Nationals 2009).  Well, these are my 'educated guesses'.  Free agents are ranked based off the list from mlbtraderumors.com's top 50 free agents, but the predictions and explanations are original Cubs Insider material.

1. Cliff Lee - Yankees.  It will be a serious upset if anyone but the Yankees gets one of the best starters in baseball in Lee.  Lee beat the Yankees twice in the ALCS in eliminating the Yankees on his way to the World Series, and if the Yankees get beat by a top player they are double as likely to get him the next offseason.

2. Carl Crawford - Tigers.  With a bunch of huge contracts (Magglio Ordonez, Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, etc.) coming off the books, the Tigers are revved up to spend big time dough.  Crawford is a great fit for the spacious gaps of Comerica Park making a great duo between him and Austin Jackson.  A Detroit team that appeared lifeless at times last year could use this spark plug.

3. Adrian Beltre - Angels.  The Angels are also looking to spend and will be in the Crawford sweepstakes, but this should be their top guy.  Beltre is coming off a tremendous season with the Red Sox and the Angels want a definite power bat in the middle of the order more than a bunch of aging but somewhat effective veterans (Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, Torii Hunter).

4. Jayson Werth - Red Sox.  The Red Sox have to make their annual splash, and the fan base craves a sturdy left fielder after a season with a revolving door in front of the Green Monster.  Nine players played in left field for Boston in 2010, and the Red Sox also love his power bat.

5. Adam Dunn - Cubs.  An admitted lover of hitting at Wrigley Field, the Cubs will need a power hitting lefty first baseman to contend in 2011.  The Tigers and White Sox will also be in competition for the veteran, but Dunn will end up with the Cubs for the first reason and also because of his past relationship with GM Jim Hendry, whom Dunn knows from their days in Cincinnati.

6. Victor Martinez - Tigers.  Detroit won't get Dunn, but still have a first baseman in Martinez.  This signing gives them lots of flexibility as they can use Martinez at either position or even rotate him, allowing the Tigers to start bench players and rookies and play the hot bat.  With Crawford, the Tigers will have impressively signed a power bat and leadoff guy, memo to the rest of the AL Central.

7. Rafael Soriano - White Sox.  The Angels are the favorite in this race, but the White Sox have lost almost all trust in Bobby Jenks are unlikely to want to have him as closer again.  GM Ken Williams always pulls off a few eye openers in the offseason, this being probably his biggest.  Williams, more often than not, gets his man.

8. Mariano Rivera - Yankees.  Tight race between the Yankees and Diamonbacks.  Yeah right.

9. Paul Konerko - White Sox.  The odds of him leaving are palpable and feasible, but he probably extended his Chicago career with his terrific comeback 2010 season.  Ripping 38 homers is enough to keep the great (owner) Jerry Reinsdorf-Konerko friendship alive.  If not the Sox, possibly the Angels or Diamondbacks.  Not joking this time.

10. Derek Jeter - Yankees.  See: Rivera, Mariano.  The Yankees are going to severely overpay for Jeter who is no longer an above average defender and earned another Gold Glove he doesn't deserve.  As the face of the Yankees franchise, there's pretty much no chance he will be playing anywhere but The House That Jeter Built (New Yankee Stadium) in 2011.

11. Hiroki Kuroda - Dodgers.  Kuroda could be an under the radar signing somewhere else, but the Dodgers like his durability and reliability.  For a team lacking in a true ace, Kuroda should be a solid middle rotation starter.

12. Jorge De La Rosa - Rockies.  A lefty middle rotation guy, he has some caution flags stuck on his shoulder, that being his control problems that have plagued him when has been ineffective.  Even when playing to his potential, he walks too many batters.  The kind of player rebuilding teams target, the Nationals, Royals, and Pirates have been linked to him as well.

13. Carl Pavano - Twins.  While the Twins still lack an ace since the departure of Johan Santana, Pavano, after pitching only 145.2 innings over 2005-2008 with the Yankees, has now pitched 420.1 innings over the past two seasons and is a workhorse.  The Twins need him as a key cog in that staff of mediocre to above average starters.

14. Jake Westbrook - Cardinals.  A low drama deal, the Cardinals will pay the man his money because they still need depth behind Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter.  Westbrook probably isn't the best they can do, but he's willing to come back and will take some innings.

15. Aubrey Huff - Giants.  2010's best bargain deal was Huff who hit 26 homers and led the Giants to the championship for only $3 million.  The Giants certainly won't want him to guy, they will get him back.

16. Juan Uribe - Mariners.  The historically terrible offense of the 2010 Seattle Mariners was an embarrassment to the franchise and GM Jack Zduriencik will make some moves.  Uribe seems like a logical pickup as current shortstop Josh Wilson doesn't hit well enough to start.  Uribe's 20 projected homers would be very welcome to Mariners fans.

17. Carlos Pena - Nationals.  A player to watch right here.  Pena couldn't even bat .200 in 2010 but still hit 28 homers.  With his stock taking a big hit with the low average, Pena could easily regain his status as one of the American League's best first basemen as he plays the field well and led the AL in homers with 39 in 2009.

18. Jim Thome - Twins.  For all Thome did for the Twins, he should be given one more year as the DH.  Worst case scenario, Thome ends up being traded at the deadline.

19. Vladimir Guerrero - Rangers.  Although the Rangers declined their $9 million option on Guerrero, they want him back.  Guerrero will likely have to take a pay cut if he stays with the Rangers, but he is inclined to stay while Texas is a winner.

20. Manny Ramirez - Athletics.  This may seem surprising, but it shouldn't be considering the man at the controls of the A's.  GM Billy Beane, known for his uncommon baseball wits and surprising signings, will bring in the bat.  Manny has more left in that bat than he showed with the White Sox, and a fresh start in his first small market since Cleveland should do him well.

21. Magglio Ordonez - Blue Jays.  As evidenced by their signing of Frank Thomas in 2007, the Jays are willing to roll the dice on veterans past their prime.  Playing half the season of 2010, he surprised many with the return of his power that escaped him in 2009.  His 37 year old bat seems to have plenty in it as he still hit .300 in 2010 for the 10th time in the last 12 seasons.  Expect a one or two year deal.

22. Orlando Hudson - Padres.  A free agent again, the O-Dog will end up in San Diego because of his positive attitude and veteran status among a very young team.  Hudson is very consistent and the Padres need to improve on their team batting average, something he can help the team with.

23. Derrek Lee - Brewers.  With Prince Fielder very likely to be traded, this trade would give Milwaukee an able bat to replace some of Fielder's production.  Lee can be picked up with a discount as his stock fell after a disappointing 2010.  The Orioles and Diamondbacks have also been mentioned.

24. Lance Berkman - Mariners.  It's no secret the Big Puma's bat has faded significantly.  He could provide a little value, though, as whatever he'll hit is most definitely better than whoever else the Mariners could start.  With Berkman, though, there are lots of teams that have a little interest; no front runners.

25. Andy Pettitte - Yankees.  Right now, he's playing the whole 'I need to be with my family' card but the truth is this guy is a true ballplayer and loves the game.  The Yankees would love to have him because amazingly he keeps returning and pitching well.  If he's not out there on a roster by Opening Day, I will be shocked.

26. Jon Garland - Orioles.  The front office might finally get something right and improve the effort to find talent outside of the organization while they have the opportunity.  Baltimore is a team that holds momentum this offseason with their strong finish under Buck Showalter, and this signing would go a long way towards taming the kids on the staff and transforming them into pitchers.  

27. A.J. Pierzynski - Red Sox.  Pierzynski was the favorite to join the Florida Marlins, but they picked the Red Sox's top option in John Buck.  The Red Sox will take Pierzynski instead, providing great insurance for Jason Varitek.  Pierzynski was quoted as saying the Red Sox, among a few other teams, "would all be good fits."

28. Miguel Olivo - Dodgers.  Whatever happened to Russell Martin, it sounds like the Dodgers have had with him.  Olivo is one of the best offensive catchers in baseball and plays in small, usually losing markets which is why he flies under the radar so much.  What a treat, now he gets to play for a contender.

29. John Buck - Marlins.  Speaking of early birds, the Marlins and Buck beat me to this post and agreed to a three year deal already earlier this week.  Buck was the huge favorite to land the Red Sox job, but instead takes Florida where he's the best catcher they have seen since Ivan Rodriguez.

30. Javier Vazquez - Nationals.  Vazquez would enjoy going back to the National League after another unsuccessful year with the Yankees.  He also expressed interest in the Nationals, so they have to be considered the favorite.  If they could get him, he would become the best pitcher in the history of the Nationals portion of the franchise.

31. Scott Downs - Yankees.  Playing for the Blue Jays, the Yankees have seen Downs a lot.  Thus increasing his chances of becoming one.  The race for Downs will go between the Red Sox and Yankees, but remember which team has seemingly unlimited resources.  Hint, not the Red Sox.

32. J.J. Putz - Dodgers.  After having a mid career crisis with the Mets that included injuries, Putz has gotten his stuff back.  The Dodgers use their bullpen more than almost every team in the league and those cannot go to George Sherrill again, whose 6.69 ERA was surprising and just terrible.  Putz should replace him behind Jonathan Broxton, or replace him in the event of another period of struggle for Broxton.

33. Brian Fuentes - Braves.  Atlanta already has a great bullpen, but they could use a veteran to close games and need a closer after the retirement of Billy Wagner.  Fuentes blows more than a few saves, but thankfully they have the depth to cover the void.

34. Adam LaRoche - Orioles.  Much like Olivo, LaRoche usually is playing on losing and/or small market teams and isn't talked about much.  His value is real, however, and he is drawing interest from Orioles, Brewers, Cubs, Giants, and Diamondbacks just to name a few.

35. Hisanori Takahashi - Phillies.  Another under the radar pitcher, Takahashi could start for the Phillies if they want him to.  The Phillies like his flexibility, but so do the Nationals, Orioles, and Mariners.

36. Pat Burrell - Braves.  The Giants, unlike the Rays, saw that Burrell can still hit.  They also saw he still can't run or field.  The Braves outfield was a weakness last season but the addition of Burrell, along with the move of Martin Prado, could make it better.  The Padres need a slugger though, and so do the Mariners.

37. Joaquin Benoit - Rays.  The Rays are in serious trouble as their top six relievers are free agents.  If the Rays could bring back one of them, however, it probably would be Benoit who was unhittable in 2010.  Interest is not lacking by any means, the Tigers, Red Sox, and Yankees all want him and the Rays will need a great offer to compete with the bigger market teams.

38. Kevin Millwood - Brewers.  The Brewers are constantly on the hunt for pitching and the signing of Randy Wolf last offseason didn't go as well as planned.  Millwood is just the kind of pitcher the Brewers would sign, a veteran whose price tag is cut because of his struggles in Baltimore and a bad contract in Texas.  The Royals, Mariners, Pirates, and Padres are four teams that also want him, but only one is a contender and with all these offers Millwood can probably choose where he wants to go.

39. Kevin Correia - Pirates.  Pittsburgh has no pitching pretty much, and although Correia's 4.57 career ERA hardly makes him a dependable veteran, he's better than nothing.  Correia could be a good #5 starter on a good team, although the odds of a good team spending money in free agency on a #5 starter is unlikely.  The Pirates need anyone to help Paul Maholm in the rotation.

40. Arthur Rhodes - Reds.  As long as he is pitching well, there's no reason for the Reds to deny the 41 year old reliever.  The Reds need the bullpen stacked with guys who can pitch around Aroldis Chapman, their top reliever who threw the fastest pitch in history in 2010.  Many teams could use the lefty, the Phillies being one, but the Reds are the most likely to keep him.