Billy Beane Marches On

Athletics GM Billy Beane

The Oakland A's just gave Billy Beane an extension through 2019 - but is he still the right man for the job?  Is his celebrity status what's keeping him there?

The Moneyball movie, released September 23 last fall, displayed two perspectives on the Oakland Athletics.  The first one, which was the selling point of the movie and common reaction from the general public, was that the movie celebrated a truly historic and unprecedented story of a comeback team; not only on the field itself, but within the front office.

The other perspective, an underlying and somewhat depressing observation, was a comparison of the 'Moneyball' 2002 A's and the 2011 version.  On the release date of the movie, the A's won in Anaheim in the sixth-to-last game of another losing season, their fourth in five years.  It was a 3-1 final, raising the team's record to 71-86 on the season in standout starter Gio Gonzalez's second-to-last start with Oakland.  The A's had closed out their home schedule the day before with a win over the defending AL champion Texas Rangers - in front of a measly crowd of barely 14,000.  After the game in Anaheim, the A's won three of their remaining five games to finish the season at 74-88 with some young talent, most of which has since been dumped in the genesis of another do-over rebuilding plan.  This is not the first such plan since the A's were last relevant in 2006, and it probably won't be their last in the near future.  At the helm the entire time, however, has been general manager Billy Beane.

Oakland's Famed 'Big Three' (from left):
Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, and Mark Mulder

The 2002 A's were definitely a team definitely that faced failure before the season even started.  The team three major starts in closer Jason Isringhausen, first baseman and reigning MVP Jason Giambi, and center fielder Johnny Damon, as the movie focused on.  What the movie failed to explain, however, was how the A's did still have the best rotation trio in the major leagues in Barry Zito, Tim Hudson, and Mark Mulder besides a quick flash of Hudson.  If you exempt a few seconds showing him making an error, the film also whiffed on mentioning the team's shortshop, Miguel Tejada, who just happened to win the AL MVP that year.  Throw in Zito's Cy Young, and you've got the MVP and Cy Young winners together on the same 103-win team that won its division.  Wasn't this team supposedly struggling?  An example of the legendary tale of the underdog?  If I didn't know better, I would say this was the class of the American League, complete with star power and value deals.

The 2002 AL MVP, shortstop Miguel Tejada

But the movie credits Beane and the fictional Peter Brand as the undisputed saviors with their conservative money-saving approach of finding unsung heroes with the best value.  It's a great approach, but you can't win 103 games if the best players on the team are Scott Hatteberg, Chad Bradford, and David Justice.  You just can't.  There has to be a supporting cast.  It's a humbling, feel-good story that these rejects were made stars in their own way through harnessing their skills of getting on base and, in Bradford's case, maintaining impeccable control.  But it takes a full team effort to avoid 'losing the last game of the season'.

Beane did also play a major role in acquiring the team's other stars, as he drafted Mulder and Zito with the team's first-round draft picks in 1998 and 1999, respectively.  But since this era he hasn't had much luck.  The 2002 LDS loss to the Minnesota Twins was their third consecutive year of being eliminated in the LDS - in the fifth and final game, no less.  They lost the decisive Game 5 again in 2003, this time to the Red Sox.  As is protocol for the cash-strapped A's, the team watched as Tejada had bolted for free-agent money by 2004 and Mulder and Hudson were dealt a year later in a desperation move to stay competitive by acquiring mid-level talent for depth.  Conventional wisdom pegged the team to roll over and die.

Third baseman Eric Chavez

A couple newly-found stars, however, kept the A's in the W column.  Despite major roster turnover in between, the A's won at least 88 games every year from 2000 to 2006, making the playoffs in the first four and last of those seven years.  A new wave of players, including powerful third baseman Eric Chavez, shortstop Bobby Crosby, starter Dan Haren (who had been acquired in Mulder's trade to St. Louis), right fielder Nick Swisher, and lights-out strikeout closer Huston Street emerged to bring Oakland back over the hump and into the playoffs in 2006.  Hell, the team even took a flier on a 38-year-old Frank Thomas, recently ousted from the White Sox, and he gave them 38 homers in a season no one saw coming.  The changing of the guard worked, as Beane, after his team triumphantly beat down the Twins in a three-game sweep of the ALDS, had successfully led the A's back to the ALCS for the first time since the Dennis Eckersley days.

With this quick wheeling-and-dealing, Beane saved his team from depressingly regressing into submission after his star players had past their prime.  Although not all these moves were entirely popular in Oakland, they put the team within a few games of the World Series in 2006.  A truly incredible series of events took place there.  To many he appeared to be demolishing the team by trading away two of the three in the famed 'Big Three'.  Instead, the A's were back and better than ever just a year later.

The years since haven't exactly been smooth sailing.  2007 was a catastrophic year for the Athletics, as the wheels fell off in the form of injuries to Chavez, Crosby, Street, outfielder Mark Kotsay, and starter Rich Harden all hampered the team's performance.  And bam, Beane goes to work.  This time he sends Swisher to the White Sox, Haren to the Diamondbacks, Kotsay to the Braves, and at the trade deadline of 2008 he sent Harden to the Cubs.

It didn't produce immediate results.  The A's suffered through a losing season in 2007 for the first time in nine years, and they had nearly identical results the year after.  Besides the random emergence of power-hitting outfielder Jack Cust, these were not teams to write home about.  Beane wanted to do something about that.

Left fielder Matt Holliday.  Acquired in Beane's push
for a winner in 2009, he didn't even last a full season.

Three quick acquisitions for the 2009 season meant Billy was all in.  Beane brought back a now 38-year-old Giambi in search of a miracle, acquired prime slugger Matt Holliday from Colorado, and plugged in clutch veteran shortstop Orlando Cabrera.  However, Holliday suffered through a power outage and Giambi suffered through an everything-outage.  The movement was ill-fated from the beginning, as the young guns of the pitching staff were nowhere near ready to compete under winning expectations.  Giambi, Holliday, and Cabrera were all quickly disposed of by the start of September, another quick "three-and-out" for our man Billy.


The 2009 season wasn't a total lost effort, however, as some of those youngsters on the pitching staff got valuable experience from their struggles.  Power closer Andrew Bailey even won Rookie of the Year.  The result of this development were impressive performances the next year from starters Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Dallas Braden, none of whom were older than 26.  The offense wasn't there, so the A's stayed in mediocrity in 2010.  If the A's could secure some offense, the experts said, Oakland would a be a team to beat in 2011.  As had been the case for a while, the A's had some nice young players but fell short because they didn't have a complete team.  This wasn't necessarily Beane's fault, but evidently his strategies weren't working like they used to.

The situation in Oakland became even more desperate after their cross-bay counterpart, the San Francisco Giants, took home the World Series trophy in 2010.  The resulting loss in market share hurt an already economically-wounded franchise.  As you can guess by now, Beane refused to give up on the team and went back to work again on securing offense.

Left fielder Josh Willingham.  Another one-
and-done impact player.

Beane successfully dragged in designated hitter Hideki Matsui, left fielder Josh Willingham, and right fielder David DeJesus, three under-the-radar veteran offensive pieces.  Matsui and Willingham offered power, while DeJesus offered on-base skills and defense.  Those two joined an offensive core of value players in catcher Kurt Suzuki, third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, and consistent second baseman Mark Ellis.


Right when the A's looked to be in an improved position from the year before on Opening Day 2011, the strength of the team fell apart.  That standout rotation blew up.  While Gonzalez still had a great season, Cahill's ERA ballooned to over 4.00, unacceptable for the ace of a playoff contender.  Braden and Anderson both missed most of the season to injury.  A bust prospect reincarnated in Brandon McCarthy literally came out of nowhere to be the new #2 starter.  The A's payroll of $66 million was the ninth-smallest in the league.  Even that was up six spots from the year before, and four spots up from 2009.

The A's franchise is at a crossroads right now.  Management has been calling for a move to the southern Bay Area for over five years as the team's average attendance at the archaic O.co Coliseum is dismal at best.  The 2011 average of 18,232 doesn't sell out most NBA arenas, and is currently being beat by the nearby Golden State Warriors' average of 18,705.  Of course NBA tickets are more expensive than baseball tickets, so the Warriors are making significantly more revenue on each home date.

Commissioner Bud Selig approved a move to Fremont, California for the A's in late 2006, where the proposed Cisco Field was to be constructed.  Funding fell through, and the plan was scrapped.  Now the A's call for a move to San Jose.  The Comish has been far less decisive this time.  A few months ago, he announced that the A's situation was now a "top priority" for his office to deal with.  Not to give approval, that is, but to make a decision either way.  Meanwhile one of his historic franchises, an original American League franchise founded in 1901 in Philadelphia, is rotting in this state of dismay without the necessary funds to improve the team or the fan base to get these funds.

The proposed Cisco Field, now placed in San Jose.  If
approved now, completion projects to be in time
for the 2016 season.

A move to San Jose is imminent for the front office.  Beane admitted in December that they're building the team under the assumption that they will have a new ballpark there in a handful of years, because they don't have any other choice.  But for the next couple years, there's little hope in sight.  For the umpteenth time as Oakland's GM, Billy Beane again had to hit the self-destruct button.  He let go of DeJesus and Kouzmanoff and traded his budding top two starters, sending Cahill to Arizona and Gonzalez to Washington.  The result is a depleted team with very little elite talent.
        
This latest rebuilding plan will take a few years, and it's a necessary process if the A's want to have a winner in time for the potential move to San Jose.  The plan has already been started by Beane, but should he really be the one to execute it?  As you've read here, Beane had immense success in the early 2000s and a dismal reign since.  The A's haven't had a winning season since 2006.  Some say Beane was given this monster extension under the old 'any publicity is good publicity' theory in that the A's want to keep Beane just to draw attention to themselves.  But under the financial constraints they have seemingly always been subject to, I don't think there's any single better candidate for the job.  Beane has never been afraid to make bold trades and be aggressive in his shuffling, a trait that has served the team well as evidenced by their constant supply of promising young players.  But it's just really, really hard to build a winner under those conditions.  Now get Billy a new ballpark and some cash, and he'll have the team battling Texas and Anaheim for the division every year.

Billy has already started the rebuilding process with the dumping of those aforementioned players.  It's going to get worse before it gets better, as this year's team could easily lose 100 games.  But to let go of Beane now wouldn't make sense.  If ownership were looking for a different approach, Beane would have been fired before he sent away the team's two biggest stars in Gonzalez and Cahill.  Now, they might as well let him finish what he started.

Cubs Acquire Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner

Anthony Rizzo

Man, Theo and Jed really do like this kid.

More than a month after initially talking to the Padres about Anthony Rizzo, the Cubs finally found the right deal to reel him in.  That deal was Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Na for Rizzo and Zack Cates.  A blockbuster deal as far as prospects go, but I like it.

I think this is a really risky move by the Padres.  Cashner was supposed to be the Cubs' #5 starter in 2011 until an injury in his first start caused him to miss nearly the entire season.  Despite the injury risk, San Diego still was aggressive about acquiring the Cubs' first-round pick from 2008.  So far Cashner's career has been defined by his 100 mph fastball and that injury.  His minor league record is impressive with a 2.82 career ERA and only three homers allowed in over 180 innings, but closer study reveals he doesn't have his mechanics down well enough to be considered an elite prospect.  He does strike out about eight batters per nine innings but also walks about four in nine innings.  This means his K/BB ratio is around 2.00, which is not impressive at all.  For comparison, most elite pitchers have around a 4.00 or 5.00 ratio.

Andrew Cashner

Interestingly enough, Cashner became somewhat homer-prone in his midsummer major league trial in 2010.  I said before how he only allowed three homers in 180+ minor league innings.  In just over 50 major league innings, Cashner allowed eight home runs.  His ERA from that trial was 4.80, and that K/BB ratio got even worse to 1.67.  Like most other fans and observers of the game, I assumed these struggles were due to a lack of experience and the typical issues a rookie deals with upon arrival in MLB.  I guess I was never really sold on him, though.  That fastball is amazing and his simple delivery seems to defy physics, but his changeup was not where it needed to be.

Rizzo didn't have much luck in the majors either.  His trial came in 2011 and he batted .141 with just one home run in over 150 plate appearances.  Obviously I don't watch the Padres every day, but from what I can tell it seemed he never got into a rhythm.  That actually helps the Cubs, however, as it dropped his stock to the point where just Cashner could get him.  Rizzo will be worth it, too.  Across three levels of minor league ball, Rizzo has put up back-to-back 25 HR, 100 RBI seasons.  In 2011, however, he did it in much more impressive fashion, as if 100 RBIs in the minors wasn't impressive to begin with.  Rizzo batted .331, got on base at a .404 clip, had a .652 slugging percentage, recorded his first career triple, and did it all in 93 games.  101 RBIs in 93 games?!  Cubs fans, meet Anthony Rizzo.  He's here to stay.

Times a-changing: This Cubs Convention poster, advertising
 the 2011 Convention, is only a year old.  Two of the three
featured players are out of the organization.

Cates, 22, was the Padres' third-round pick in 2010.  This 6'3" righty spent all of 2011 with Fort Wayne in A ball.  His 8.5 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, and 2.09 K/BB are reminiscent of Cashner.  The main difference is Cates is still two or three years from the bigs while the Padres will most definitely throw Cashner into Petco Park for at least part of 2012.  Cates has some nice potential.  Let's give it a year and see where he stands after that.

The outfielder Na was signed out of South Korea and played the 2011 season at age 19, bouncing from rookie ball to even AA.  He gives little offensively with virtually no power at all but has some speed.  His size  (5'10", 170 lbs) is a minus, but apparently his defense is good.  Either that or he paid his way through the Cubs' minor league system.  I can't figure out how he moved up so quickly.  I don't think we lost anything here, though.

Theo Epstein announced after the trade that he expects Rizzo to start 2011 in AAA.  Theo himself must be excited to have Rizzo, a prospect of his own in Boston until he went to San Diego in the Adrian Gonzalez trade.  For now, however, Rizzo is still a prospect.  Personally I'm really excited for this kid to debut, but he needs some time in Iowa first.  We don't want to burn him out before he's ready.  As of right now, Bryan LaHair is our first baseman.  But soon, and hopefully for a long time, Anthony Rizzo will be the man!

The 2011 All-Division Team, Part 6: NL West

A year after Andre Ethier stole the
spotlight in LA, Matt
Kempis back on top.

Part 6 of 6: National League West


It's finally here!  The finale of the best around baseball in 2011.  The Diamondbacks came out of virtually nowhere to take the division away from the Giants this past season, but did they have the individual star power to make a major impact on the All-Division Team?  Let's find out!


C Miguel Montero, ARI
Well, the D-Backs have at least one on the board.  This 27-year-old breakout catcher put together all his skills in 2011 to earn MVP votes and his first All-Star selection.  Montero is now one of the game's best offensive catchers.  Plus, he's really fun to play with in MLB: The Show (an added bonus in my book).  He was not really a notably good defensive catcher early in his career but has improved there as well.  86 RBIs and a .282 average from behind the plate made him a reliable part of the offense down in the desert.
Competition: Eli Whiteside (SF), Nick Hundley (SD), Chris Iannetta (COL), and Rod Barajas (LAD).


1B Todd Helton, COL
A team leader who hit for a high batting average and a ridiculously high OBP.  Do I sound like a broken record?  I should.  Helton played 124 games this season.  His .385 OBP this season was the lowest of any season in which he played 124 or more games excluding his rookie season of 1998.  This player is undoubtedly the best in franchise history and a first ballot Hall of Famer.  Still, however, his role on this team is apparent.  He may not have much flash or power at age 37 anymore, but his defense is still a plus as it always has been.  Helton provides the Rockies with stability the franchise had never had before the Tulowitzki era.  Helton's job is his as long as he wants it and if the Rockies are smart, they'll do everything they can to keep him in black and purple for at least two or three more years.
Competition: James Loney (LAD), Aubrey Huff (SF), Jesus Guzman (SD), and Juan Miranda (ARI).


2B Jamey Carroll, LAD
How many 37-year-olds in the Majors steal 10 bases?  If you say Ichiro or Rickey Henderson, that's cheating.  However, neither Suzuki nor Henderson accomplished that feat without getting caught.  In a random statistical anomaly from the 2011 season, the veteran Carroll went 10-for-10 in steals, nearing his career high.  Perhaps a late bloomer, he has now stolen more bases in the last two years than any other two-year stretch in his career.  In 2011 overall though, Carroll was very durable for the Dodgers, playing in 146 games at second base and shortstop and batting .290.  That's really all manager Don Mattingly could ask for.
Competition: Orlando Hudson (SD), Mark Ellis (COL), Kelly Johnson (ARI), and Freddy Sanchez (SF).

Pablo Sandoval

3B Pablo Sandoval, SF
While Ryan Roberts was the greatest surprise from the division and the best utility man in baseball in my opinion, Sandoval's resurgence kept the Giants out of offensive limbo.  Let's face it; GM Brian Sabean has not done a good job of building an offense for a team that should be a deep postseason contender every year.  If there's one thing he has done right on offense, though, it was keeping Sandoval when he was a highly-touted prospect and attractive to other teams.  Despite the pressure of being the only 'big' bat, Sandoval batted .315 and was the only Giant to hit over 15 home runs and 60 RBIs.  The only one.  Perhaps it's fitting that the Kung Fu Panda has to run the show solo.
Competition: Ryan Roberts (ARI), Ty Wigginton (COL), Juan Uribe (LAD), and Chase Headley (SD).

SS Troy Tulowitzki, COL
A wild Tulo appears!  Still only 26, Tulowitzki is purely one of the best players in the game.  Naming him to the All-Division Team was a no-brainer.  Even though the Rockies are the most successful expansion franchise of the past two decades in terms of fan support, Tulowitzki gives the Rockies a brand and identity. He arrived right when Helton's star power began to fade, and Rockies fans now have another prime superstar to hail to.  Tulo is a true team player who contributes on offense, defense and special teams with impressive power and a great arm.  It actually looks like he prefers making off-balance throws but they're accurate.
Competition: Dee Gordon (LAD), Brandon Crawford (SF), Stephen Drew (ARI), and Jason Bartlett (SD).

LF Carlos Gonzalez, COL (2nd)
Gonzalez's season was much lower profile than his Triple Crown chase of 2010.  Still, though, there's nothing wrong with a solid 26-20 season in less than a full season.  Apparently he has also taken after his Colorado teammates in Helton and Tulowitzki with his .363 OBP.  Gonzalez will be 26 next season so the Rockies have many years left of CarGo after he earned his big extension last winter.  I don't think they're regretting the Matt Holliday trade much anymore.  The only concern I have is that his full force nature could result in more injury.  Best of luck to this star.  
Competition: Tony Gwynn, Jr. (LAD), Gerardo Parra (ARI), Cody Ross (SF), and Ryan Ludwick (SD).

CF Matt Kemp, LAD
After Kemp really struggled with his hitting coach and manager in 2010, questions arose about his motivation and morale.  Could this be another headcase who would never live up to his full potential?  Kemp replied no with an MVP excellent season that fell just short of 40-40 levels.  The dude is real dynamite.  Even with all the drama surrounding the Dodgers and their ownership situation, Kemp was the most valuable player in the MLB and should have won MVP.  Actually, he's the MVP of PED-free players (yeah, I went there Ryan Braun).  Although winning a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and getting an All-Star selection in the same season is rare, a career high walk total and OBP help forecast how Kemp will continue his success.  The hardest thing for pitchers to deal with when facing a power hitter is if the hitter forces them to throw a strike to get them out.  Kemp did it in 2011 and should win more his first MVP soon.
Competition: Dexter Fowler (COL), Chris Young (ARI), Andres Torres (SF), and Cameron Maybin (SD).

Justin Upton

RF Justin Upton, ARI
Want to know a main reason Arizona won the West?  In case you couldn't tell, Upton helped a bit.  Besides having his own bleacher section in right field at Chase Field, appropriately tabbed 'Uptown', he finished 4th in MVP voting because of his monster 30-20 season.  Apparently he also got under the skin of opposing pitchers, as he was plunked 15 times more than he ever had been before.  His bat speed ranks among the best in the majors with that old-school two-handed power swing of his.  It's fun to watch as the younger Upton bro has risen above his elder.  For a young franchise like Arizona, a cornerstone player like this is just what they need to keep the fans coming.
Competition: Seth Smith (COL), Andre Ethier (LAD), Wil Venable (SD), and Nate Schierholtz (SF).

SP Clayton Kershaw, LAD
I have held back on the Kershaw show in recent years, but I think he's finally earned it.  At 21 years old and in his first full season in the big leagues, Kershaw was the best starting pitcher on the 95-win Dodger team of 2009.  That speaks to Chad Billingsley's inconsistency more than it does Kershaw's talent, especially considering that Kershaw was raw and hardly a polished product like he is today.  Awarding him with the National League Cy Young, though, was the right choice as his 2.28 ERA and 248 strikeouts mean he has arrived for good.  The Sandy Koufax comparisons just keep rolling in.
Competition: Jhoulys Chacin (COL), Ian Kennedy (ARI), Tim Lincecum (SF), and Mat Latos (SD).

CP J.J. Putz, ARI
The late-blooming Putz rose to becoming the game's best closer in 2007 with Seattle, but just two years later he found himself with a new team thousands of miles away and without the closer's job.  That team was the New York Mets, from which he went to the White Sox, also in a setup role.  The Diamondbacks finally put Putz back in his rightful place in the 9th inning and it paid off as Putz recorded 45 saves, a 2.17 ERA, over 9 K/9 innings and under 2 BB/9 innings.  His .914 WHIP was also among the best in the league.
Competition: Brian Wilson (SF), Javy Guerra (LAD), Huston Street (COL), and Heath Bell (SD).

The 2011 All-Division Team, Part 1: AL East

Jose Bautista highlights a stacked division yet again.

Part 1 of 6: American League East

Here again for the second year in a row is the Cubs Insider All-Division Team, back for 2011.  This year the posts will be divided into six; one for each division, going East to West in both leagues.  In this first installment of my ramblings, I'll be going over the best (most valuable to his team's season performance) of the Orioles, Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, and Red Sox by position.  Runners-up are listed in no particular order and any player who has won the award again after winning it last season is noted as such.

C Matt Wieters, BAL
After 2010 award winner John Buck departed Toronto for Florida last offseason and Jorge Posada was effectively benched indefinitely from the Yankees' signing of Russell Martin, there was not a clear favorite to take the throne in this division.  In his third season, Wieters blossomed at age 25, earning his first trip to the All-Star Game and capping off another forgettable Orioles season with a little hardware for himself, his first Gold Glove award.  A 4.0 WAR and 22 homers don't hurt either, and a notably decreased strikeout rate (which was already low to begin with) show that these probably won't be the last of awards for the South Carolina native.  Competition: Kelly Shoppach (TB), Russell Martin (NYY), J.P. Arencibia (TOR), Jarrod Saltamacchia (BOS).

1B Adrian Gonzalez, BOS (2nd, first with Red Sox)
A-Gon narrowly had the best season of his career despite playing in a drastically better lineup in 2011 than ever before.  That speaks to Gonzalez's consistency no matter who his teammates are, whether they're on base or not.  The fact is Gonzalez was an excellent fit for the Red Sox with his opposite-field power for the Green Monster and he proved it with an All-Star selection, Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger.  There's certainly talent at the position in the division with Mark Teixeira blasting 39 homers in the Bronx and Adam Lind holding his own north of the border, but Gonzalez fit right in with the established Red Sox core and got them deep into the playoffs.  Competition: Casey Kotchman (TB), Mark Teixeira (NYY), Adam Lind (TOR), Derrek Lee (BAL).

2B Robinson Cano, NYY (2nd)
Critics will argue that Dustin Pedroia's combination of power and speed both contributed more to the Red Sox, but I make the argument that if Pedroia goes down for a month in the regular season, I see the Red Sox surviving in the standings more than I do if the Yankees were to lose Cano.  On an aging team where Cano is one of only three starters under 30, Cano is great lineup protection for Teixeira, especially this season as Alex Rodriguez had a dismal year.  Competition: Ben Zobrist (TB), Dustin Pedroia (BOS), Robert Andino (BAL), Aaron Hill (TOR).

3B Evan Longoria, TB 
In a group with Mark Reynolds, Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis, and Longoria, I would have thought this running would come down to the wire.  Instead, this choice was rather easy.  Despite a .244 batting average, Longoria's OBP that's over 100 points higher and 31 home runs helped him win the running.  Besides, he'll always be remembered this season for one of the biggest hits of the year, the walk-off homer against the Yankees to win the AL Wild Card away from the Red Sox.  Competition: Kevin Youkilis (BOS), Alex Rodriguez (NYY), Mark Reynolds (BAL), and Brett Lawrie (TOR).

J.J. Hardy's career is back in
full swing (pun intended).

SS J.J. Hardy, BAL
Perhaps Hardy has found a permanent home on his third team in as many years, as a breakout season saw consistent power throughout on his way to an incredible 30 home runs from the shortstop.  I want to believe it isn't a fluke, and I have confidence that it is not.  But no matter how the Orioles were doing this season, Hardy was the team MVP in being a model power hitter; never great at getting on base, but a decent contact hitter and defender nonetheless.  Competition: Derek Jeter (NYY), Marco Scutaro (BOS), Reid Brignac (TB), and Yunel Escobar (TOR).

LF Sam Fuld, TB
'Super Sam' walked onto a weak field of incumbents by taking left field in 2011.  Early on the season, however, Fuld made a real impact on the Rays.  Despite getting nearly a full season's worth of at-bats, his defensive WAR exceeded his offensive WAR.  Making highlight reel catches and clutch hits on a daily basis, the scrappy little former Cub even inspired a Super Sam cape promotion at Tropicana Field.  Competition: Nolan Reimold (BAL), Brett Gardner (NYY), Carl Crawford (BOS), Eric Thames (TOR).

CF Curtis Granderson, NYY
I didn't think it was possible, but my man Curtis failed to get enough love in the MVP consideration, finishing only fourth in voting after a 40-25 season as a by-product of his revamped swing built with Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long in late 2010.  Granderson did have the benefits of the insanely short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium and good lineup protection, but brought a swagger-factor to the 2011 Yanks.  Oh, and led MLB in runs scored, proving that the Grandy Man Can.  Competition: Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS), Adam Jones (BAL), Rajai Davis (TOR), and B.J. Upton (TB).

RF Jose Bautista, TOR (2nd)
Was there really any doubt?  Joey Bats finished off his second season in out-of-nowhere stardom much like he did his first.  Bautista added 43 homers to his stat sheet like it was no big deal.  Most impressive to me, however, is his 132 walks to 111 strikeouts, resulting in an OBP of .447, nearly 150 points higher than his batting average!  Regardless of being a big slugger who often gets pitched around, 132 walks is a thing of beauty.  And after the Black Blue Jays ended another spending-October-on-the-couch season, he got to play dress up to display the Jays new threads.  Competition: Matt Joyce (TB), Nick Swisher (NYY), Nick Markakis (BAL), and J.D. Drew (BOS).

DH David Ortiz, BOS
If the designated hitter's role is known as a low on-base, high power and strikeout batter, which it often has been, then Ortiz is the anti-DH.  Getting on base nearly 40% of the time, Big Papi's late career demise of 2008 and 2009 has recovered to the extent that Ortiz is still a very smart hitter who knows how to take a few pitches.  He does strike out plenty walked nearly as much in 2011, and a new team could replenish his systems after the bad spiral the Sawks' season took.  Competition: Jorge Posada (NYY), Vladimir Guerrero (BAL), Johnny Damon (TB), and Edwin Encarnacion (TOR).

SP Ricky Romero, TOR
Yet another interesting piece the Jays have found, this 26-year-old Los Angeles native completed his third season in the big leagues and already is the definite ace of his team.  Romero doesn't give up many hits, just walks and strikeouts mostly.  Ironically, his 2.92 ERA and 15 wins were the 'stuff' of aces, and yet his 26 homers allowed wouldn't suggest an ace and was 11 more than the year before.  This kid has a lot of good years to come however.  Honorable mention to James Shields, who made this decision extremely tough.  Competition: C.C. Sabathia (NYY), Josh Beckett (BOS), and James Shields (TB), and Jeremy Guthrie (BAL).  

CP Mariano Rivera, NYY
'Mo', now 41-years-old, just struck out 60 and walked eight in 2011.  If that doesn't tell you all you need to know, maybe his .897 WHIP or his 1.91 ERA will.  Rivera is still the best at the position in the league and might as well pitch himself to the grave.  I hate the thought of handing double-digit millions to closers, but Rivera is the exception to the rule.  Just unbelievable.  Competition: Kevin Gregg (BAL), Kyle Farnsworth (TB), Jonathan Papelbon (BOS), Frank Francisco (TOR).

Well that's all I have for now.  Back with more soon.  I hope everyone is having a nice holiday weekend!

Road Trip Analysis: Atlanta, Houston

Record: 3-3
Final Record: 54-70

This road trip began like many other for the Cubs, as they were mauled on Friday night in Atlanta.  Dan Uggla extended his hitting streak with two homers, both off Carlos Zambrano.  Chipper Jones, Jose Constanza, and Freddie Freeman also homered off Zambrano, who took out his frustration on Jones by throwing at him twice, hitting him the second time.  The Braves won 10-4.

Zambrano was thrown out and walked out on his team, earning him a 30-day suspension on the rarely-used disqualified list which could mark the end of his Cubs career.  Apparently anger management classes last year didn't hold up, and Zambrano started telling everyone in the clubhouse he was going to retire immediately before he cleaned out his locker and beat it.  Later, calling in on Chicago Tribune Live on CSN, he said he was upset that word of his potential retirement escaped the clubhouse and got to the media.  Either way it was a stupid thing to say so he doesn't have much of a right to be mad.

The Cubs won on Saturday thanks to an array of RBI singles and doubles, but Uggla extended his hitting streak to 33 with a home run.  I was impressed at how the Cubs attacked Derek Lowe, knocking him out of the game after six, allowing ten hits.  Final score was 8-4.

They also won on Sunday 6-5, ending Uggla's hitting streak at 33.  The Braves rocked Matt Garza for four runs in the first four innings, but the Cubs fought back and eventually tied the game on a wild pitch. Although Alex Gonzalez got the Braves the lead back on an error in the next half-inning, Carlos Pena blasted a long two-run homer to take the lead.  With the tying run on second base in the ninth, Carlos Marmol got Martin Prado out to take the series 2-1 from the NL's second-best team.

As shocking as that series win was, I was even more excited for the Cubs to head to Houston to play MLB's worst team and hopefully go for the sweep.  The Cubs should've swept too, but the Astros took two one-run games to sneak out the series win.

Two two-run doubles were enough, barely, to beat the Astros 4-3 on Monday night thanks to a save from Kerry Wood, his first as a Cub since 2008.  The loss for the Astros dropped them to 19-41 at home.  On Tuesday night, the Cubs played a solid game and took a 5-2 lead into the ninth.  Tyler Colvin and Aramis Ramirez both hit homers in the game, but Ramirez's shot will be on highlight reels all season long as it landed on the train tracks above the wall in left field, an estimated distance of over 450 feet.  But what will most be remembered from this game will obviously be Brian Bogusevic's walk-off grand slam off Marmol to win the game 6-5.  I bet the Cubs wish they had used Wood again.  Marmol has this remarkable ability to somehow find a way to lose a game, and showed right here.  Brian Bogusevic?  Really??  And did I mention that this was his second career Major League homer, and his first ever at home?

Casey Coleman gave the Astros the lead in the 4th of Wednesday afternoon's game, and they would never give it back.  The Cubs offense was shut out for four innings by the Astros bullpen, which featured David Carpenter, Sergio Escalona, Fernando Rodriguez, and Mark Melancon, only one of whom has thrown more than 40 innings in the Major Leagues.  I might as well just have named four construction contractors.  Added with Bogusevic, and the Cubs lost a series to a team to a team that will be 50 games under .500 by the end of the year because of five nobodies.  Nice going, guys.

Cub fans should be pleased with their effort in Atlanta because they're not an easy team to face at all.  The important thing was that they scored early to avoid having to battle against the bullpen which is, in my opinion, the most dominant in baseball.  Hardthrowers Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel are two of the most toughest pitchers in the league because everything they throw is hard, hard, and harder.  Kimbrel hasn't allowed a run since June.  The results of the Houston series, however, is pretty much unacceptable.  Marmol found a way to lose then so did the offense the next day.  Although these two events probably didn't directly have anything to do with Jim Hendry's dismissal, it definitely didn't cheer up the franchise's outlook at all.

Homestand Analysis: Colorado, San Francisco, Chicago (AL)

Record: 4-4
Final Record: 35-50

Against the Rockies, the Cubs finally got their first series sweep of the season.  Unfortunately, it was a one-game series, as in a makeup game for the rainout back in April.  This means the Cubs have yet to sweep a three-game series, and also haven't even won three in a row.  But play later in the week was encouraging for the Cubs.

Behind two homers each by Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena, the Cubs rolled past the Rockies 7-3.  The four homers would be the first four of 12 homers on the eight-game homestand.  Something was definitely in the water, as even backup Koyie Hill added one to the tally.  The annual weather swing has struck Wrigley, with that summer wind blowing out to the bleachers.

In the Colorado game, starter Matt Garza gave up a deep fly ball to left field by Carlos Gonzalez.  Alfonso Soriano went back to the track at his typical, lackadaisical pace.  Soriano eventually just pulled up and stopped, facing the wall, waiting for the ball to drop.  Garza, standing on the mound and thinking Soriano couldn't see the ball, raised his arms and said, "What are you doing?!"  Sure enough, the ball landed in the bleachers for a home run.  Garza, like most of the rest of the players, was shocked.  This evidence of the bandbox that Wrigley Field becomes in the summer has to come as a big surprise to the newcomers like Garza, who thought this ball would be a routine flyout.

The jetstream helped the Cubs for the rest of the homestand.  Ramirez hit six homers on it, en route to a well-deserved National League Player of the Week award.  But even that couldn't help the Cubs from looking absolutely dreadful in the doubleheader against the Giants on last Tuesday.  The Cubs were blown out by baseball's worst offense, reminiscent of their similar drubbing of the Cubs at Wrigley Field last year.  For the Cubs, Doug Davis and Rodrigo Lopez started the two games and the results are history.

Thankfully, the Cubs salvaged the last two games in impressive fashion.  A 1-0 ninth inning lead was blown by Carlos Marmol, but Ramirez singled home the winning run just a half-inning later on Wednesday night.

On Thursday afternoon, the Cubs put together one of their most complete wins since 2008.  Marcos Mateo pitched five incredible innings of relief after Carlos Zambrano's injury allowed him just one inning.  Ramirez erased a 1-0 deficit on a 95 mph fastball off Giants closer Brian Wilson.  Darwin Barney hit a huge clutch double in the 13th inning to tie the game at two after the Giants took the lead in the top half.  Geovany Soto stepped up and, two pitches later, ended the game with a three-run walk-off homer that was one of the most amazing moments the Cubs have had in the last decade.  The game was intense throughout and the Cubs trailed twice facing a loss, coming back both times.

In their millionth attempt to win a third game in a row, the Cubs were again denied, this time by the White Sox.  The Cubs didn't commit any errors on Friday in the series opener, according to the box score.  A mental error by manager Mike Quade cost the Cubs the lead in a tie game.  Quade has been sharply criticized this season for leaving in starters too long, and although much of this criticism is unfair, there's a case for this game to be examined.  Randy Wells gave up the two-run lead he had in the seventh, increasing his runs allowed total to four.  After Alex Rios reached base, Quade allowed Wells to pitch to Juan Pierre who lined a two-run triple to gave the Sox a lead they wouldn't give back.  Quade's mental error wasn't something major on his part, but I believe it was just the wrong decision.

A blown call at second base on a double play ball prevented the Cubs from tying Saturday's game at one, and the Cubs lost 1-0.  Garza threw a complete game despite losing, a sign I love to see.  Back in the Lou Piniella days, Garza would've been yanked after eight regardless of his low pitch count and the fact that his performance had earned him another inning.  Garza has been the beneficiary of some serious bad luck this season, and his value to the team has been far underrated thus far.

The Cubs finally got a win on Sunday, which salvages all Cubs fans everywhere from having to hear those Sox fans yappin' their yappers about how they swept us in our own park, yadda yadda yadda.  Thank God.  A Starlin Castro RBI triple and Ramirez two-run homer built a small lead, and although Kerry Wood allowed the bases loaded in the 8th, the Cubs escaped, avoiding the sweep.  The Sox now lead the Crosstown Series 12-6 since 2009.

On this homestand, Cubs pitchers really started throwing strikes.  In the case of Wells, Lopez, and Davis, who was released after his latest shellacking, this tactic didn't work so well.  In the case of Garza and Ryan Dempster, this worked very well.  Keeping a lower pitch count should allow the starters to go later in games, which is something the Cubs need.  Garza's performance on Saturday was incredible; but not as incredible as the fact that he lost.    

Steve Bartman: Painfully Innocent

Before you read this post, make sure to check out this amazing story written by ESPN detective/writer Wayne Drehs in 2005.  This is one highly informative piece of writing and pretty much the closest anyone has gotten to having a full interview with Steve Bartman.  This baseball comedy news website posted an interview with Bartman in 2008; this is fake, but interesting nonetheless.  There is some truth in that story, like the fact that Bartman was at Game 3 of the 2007 NLDS in Arizona.  Although not proven, it is believed by many that he was there.  ESPN will document the game in their 30 for 30 series; the episode comes out sometime this summer or fall. 

Steve Bartman is an innocent man.  And when I mean innocent, I mean just like any other guy at ballpark.  And here's why: if you were sitting where Bartman was during Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS against Florida and Luis Castillo's foul ball came flying to within three feet of you, what would have done?  You would have done the exact same thing that Bartman did; reach out for the ball.  Therefore, the fact that Bartman himself is an enemy at all is a matter of coincidence.  Bartman was just at the wrong place at the wrong time.  It's unfortunate that this had to happen to someone like Bartman, because as Drehs mentions in his article, Bartman is a diehard and devoted Cubs fan, even now while living in societally-imposed exile.  There's nothing you can do but feel bad for him, but then again we must remember; it was us, Cubs fans, who put him there in the first place.

I present to you the three reasons why the Cubs lost Game 6, none of which blame Steve Bartman:

3. Bernie Mac's Singing of the 7th Inning Stretch
It is an honor to sing the 7th Inning Stretch at Wrigley Field.  It is more of a honor there than any other ballpark in the Major Leagues because there is a celebrity conductor every single game.  Typically, the guest conductors keep it simple with 'Let's get some runs' after the singing.  But Bernie Mac had to go and take it to another level.  He had to go and change the words in the song to 'Root, root root for the Champs' and jeopardize the entire thing.

You would think that given the enormously pressured circumstances, Mac would have just not have tried something crazy like that.  But I guess not, and it couldn't have done anything to help the Cubs at all whatsoever.  With a 2-0 lead in the 7th inning, it wasn't even that sure of a thing that the Cubs didn't blow it anyway.  Overall, Bernie Mac screwed with the baseball gods, and as they always will if not treated with respect, they'll make you pay. 

2. Moises Alou's Reaction to Bartman
Any Cubs fan can probably replay the video again and again in their head.  There's Luis Castillo slicing the ball to the opposite field and tiptoeing out of the batter's box, followed by the Alou failing to catch the ball because of Bartman, and then there's Alou coming back down to the ground and slamming his glove on his knees and having a fit over not catching the ball.  As painful as a memory that is, it's important to remember whose blame it actually was instead of just scapegoating Bartman.

Not only did Alou's reaction contribute to the collapse that ensued for the rest of the Cubs, it effectively ended the public life of Steve Bartman.  And here we are, eight years later, and Alou has never apologized to Bartman.  If Alou had just walked away like a regular outfielder, Bartman's name would be unknown to the rest of the world.  But Alou reacted terribly, like some six year old throwing a fit because he lost.  Fans and the sports community have never blamed Alou nearly enough for what he did in that situation, but Bartman is the man who he is today solely because of Moises Alou.  Alou originally blamed Bartman for the incident, but took back his words in 2008, saying "You know what the funny thing is?  I wouldn't have caught it, anyways."  Alou's nonchalant attitude clearly shows he has no understanding of what he did.  This is because he either doesn't care or is too stupid to figure it out.  Most likely it's the latter, considering how dumb that reaction was in the first place.  Moises Alou, you owe that man an apology.  Man up and do it.

The negative mood that Alou left after the play definitely stuck around for the rest of the inning.  Because the player got upset, his teammates and the fans got upset.  Making his teammates upset and distracted probably also affected the next reason for the collapse.

1. Alex Gonzalez's Fielding Error
If not for Bartman, this play would be the play known for the collapse of the 2003 Cubs.  It would have been the 'error heard 'round the world'.  But Bartman had already taken all the attention by the time Gonzalez added to the Cubs' problems and his play has been all but forgotten.

The situation for the error was only a short while after Bartman entered the spotlight.  With one out and Juan Pierre on second, Luis Castillo fouled off the Bartman ball.  After the at-bat resumed, he walked on a wild pitch which sent Pierre to third.  Ivan Rodríguez followed with a single, scoring Pierre, bringing up a young Miguel Cabrera.  Now leading 3-1 and Marlins on first and second, it would be a perfect spot for a double play ball.  Sure enough, Prior got one.  The chopper reached Gonzalez, who could have turned it for an easy 6-4-3 double play, but Gonzalez angled his glove awkwardly and bobbled the ball.  He wasn't even able to get a single out and this left runners on every base with one out.  Derrek Lee would then tie it with a two-RBI double, and the rest is history.

Just try to imagine what getting this double play would have meant.  The 8th inning would have been over, sending the Cubs into the 9th with a 3-1 lead and Joe Borowski, who had blown only four saves all year, to close it out.  The Cubs would have gone to the World Series if Gonzalez had made this play.  There, I said it.  If Bartman hadn't gotten in the way of Alou, there's no way of knowing for sure if Alou would have even made the play.  I think the chances of Alou catching that ball were 50-50.  Gonzalez, on the other hand, made only 10 errors all season in 2003.  His defensive WAR was 0.8.  The error he committed right at that time is the most inexplicable thing I have ever seen in the game of baseball.  I guess the only answer is the baseball gods abhor the Cubs.  They gave us 2003 to toy with us, and now leave us with a frustrating franchise with little hope of getting back to where we were soon.  Any way you look at it, the 2003 Cubs infamously collapsed.  And it had nothing to do with the warranted villain of that collapse, Steve Bartman. 

Hot Stove Buzz #4

First, I hope everyone had an enjoyable and restful holiday season.  Second, I apologize for the recent lack of posts and I can guarantee that more are coming- and soon.  The news feed from baseball's offseason has slowed considerably, which has been a factor in the recent lack of posts.  However, big news out of Baltimore, for Cubs fans at least, in the Orioles' signing of first baseman Derrek Lee.  With newly-acquired power-hitting third baseman Mark Reynolds on the other side of the infield, the Orioles now, believe it or not, look like a team that will make a bang on offense.  Lee, of course, spent seven seasons with the Cubs before being traded to the Braves in 2010 and becoming a free agent.

-The Angels may have just looked at strike three.  Rumors had the Rangers, not their division rival Angels, getting third baseman Adrian Beltre in a big multiyear deal.  According to the same rumors, however, Monday and Sunday were two very different days in these negotiations.  Now they appear to be much farther away from a deal than was originally thought.  Folks, this one could take a while.

-The Rangers signed Brandon Webb, meaning the Cubs didn't.  However, the search for veteran middle-of-the-rotation starters continues for the Cubbies, as this is possibly our biggest need remaining.

-The Pirates signed Garrett Atkins.  Now I know I trashed Pittsburgh's signing of Lyle Overbay a couple weeks ago, but this makes things interesting.  If they could get a sample of the production Atkins used to come up for Colorado, Atkins and Overbay could be an effective combo.  It's a shame to see two formerly great veterans struggle to fall out of relevance like they have, but that's baseball and they should be glad to have a new opportunity in the Steel City.

-In today's biggest news, the Rockies gave Carlos Gonzalez a big extension for 7 years and $80 million.  The first thing that came to my mind was, wow, smart move by the Rockies.  Then I wondered, wait, now they've signed two (Troy Tulowitzki) franchise players to huge extensions?  That's nearly unheard of especially for a team like the Rockies who have signed big contracts (Todd Helton, Mike Hampton), but haven't done two in the same offseason.  Also, I'm pretty sure the Rockies wanted this extension done right now before he has another elite season because his stock will raise and he would probably demand more by then.  As far as contract extensions go, the Rockies successfully pulled off a nice little, but huge, budget shopping deal.

-The Padres signed Brad Hawpe.  This may be surprising based on his high strikeout totals and somewhat funky batting stance and swing, but Hawpe, until 2010, has been a great average hitter his whole career.  Also, excluding 2010 again, he has been very consistent in the power numbers.  Somewhere in the mid-20s in his homer range and mid-80s in his runs batted in range.

-The Blue Jays signed Chad Cordero, a name you may have forgotten.  Cordero was an elite reliever from 2004-2007 closing games from 2005 onward and could arguably be called the best player during the Nationals' three-year stay at RFK Stadium.  When the Nats moved to Nationals Park in 2008, he sort of was left behind.  A surgery and recovery complications limited him since and he has not been good at all in the very limited time he has pitched in the last three years.  The Blue Jays, watching their division improve around them, need to stack up as many moves as they can to keep up.  This is a good piece to the puzzle.

-The Jays didn't stop there, getting the veteran reliever Octavio Dotel in a free agent signing as well.  Besides being one of the most overrated players on the video game series MLB: The Show, Dotel is 36 and didn't have a great 2010 between three teams.  Interestingly though, Dotel still has the strikeout stuff that made his career owning a career 10.9 K/9 ratio.  In 2010, that ratio was 10.5 K/9, just a tick below.  Remember the Jays lost elite setup man Scott Downs in free agency, but could have a short term replacement right here.

-The Reds signed a trainwreck of an outfielder who will never live up to his potential Jeremy Hermida to a minor league deal, suggesting he will just be a backup plan on the 2011 Reds.  Hermida had high expectations coming up with the Marlins about four years ago, but has never really taken the next step.  He is stuck at Tyler Colvin stat levels, but with more strikeouts and without the rookie benefit-of-the-doubt factor.


 

Competitive Balance in Economics

There are 30 MLB teams.  By the rules and nature of baseball, all teams have an equal shot to win.  By the rules and nature of business, some teams are favored more than others.  In today's world, the industry that is professional sports is a business.  As unfortunate as it is, this means every team in MLB has different odds to win.  Since their is no salary cap in baseball, it's all about the revenue.  And a team's success or failure in generating revenue can and most likely will dictate their ability to win.  If you're a serious baseball fan, chances are you've heard of Billy Beane, GM of the Oakland Athletics.  The reason Beane is famous is because of his groundbreaking theories about baseball economics, revolutionary thoughts that have become relevant with the big contracts and free agency dogfights of modern baseball.  If Beane were the GM of the New York Yankees, he would not be characterized as the godfather of modern baseball economics.  Oakland is a tiny city compared to the other jumbo markets of baseball, making Beane's job much harder than a GM in a bigger city.

Small market teams have it tough.  Most small market teams put a strong emphasis on building from within their own system, putting a lot of work in the scouting and development department.  When these teams come up with big prospects they are unable to sign them to extensions and they are lost to the big market teams.  Even if they are able to sign the player to an extension, what happens if the team is losing?  The team has no choice but to rebuild, which means sending the prospect-turned-star to the big market teams.  There are a few ways for it to happen, but in the end, the star ends up with the big market teams more often than they should.

Prime examples of this can be found on the current big market teams.  Remember that super rotation the Phillies will put out on the mound in 2011?  Let's see where those guys came from.  Roy Oswalt was a huge star in Houston, nearly setting the franchise wins record before being traded.  Roy Halladay was a big star in Toronto, a well-publicized one at that.  Halladay took home the 2003 AL Cy Young Award, while Cliff Lee took home the same award in 2008 with Cleveland.  While Lee struggled with injuries during times in Cleveland, it was clear even before 2008 that he had the capability to be an elite pitcher.  Cole Hamels, the fourth man in this super rotation, is the only product of the Phillies system.

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, clearly in control of a big market team, snagged two of baseball's best players from small markets this offseason.  Acquiring Adrian Gonzalez out of San Diego and Carl Crawford from Tampa Bay, he has now dealt a huge blow to both franchises.  Without Gonzalez, the Padres are no longer a playoff contender and without Crawford, the Rays aren't either.  The word 'disappointment' can't even begin to describe how fans must feel this winter in San Diego and St. Petersburg, respectively.

Let's read down the current Yankee lineup.  At catcher we have Russell Martin, just acquired from the Dodgers.  At first base we have Mark Teixeira, big time power first baseman for the Rangers before being dealt to two pit stops in between.  Teixeira isn't the only name here with an enormous contract.  At second base and shortstop, we have Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter, respectively.  There are two genuine Yankees; good for them.  At third is, and I know its been a while, the most hyped prospect in the history of baseball- with the 1995 Seattle Mariners.  In right field we have Nick Swisher, who got his fame launching bombs out of the Oakland Coliseum.  In center, the five tooled Curtis Granderson came from Detroit.  In left is Brett Gardner, one final genuine Yankee.

The Yankees World Championship team of 2009 featured only two full season homegrown starters, while the top two (C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett) came from Cleveland and Toronto, respectively.  The Yankees, not surprisingly, have been to the World Series more than any other team and have won more than any other team.  From 2001-2010, a ten year stretch, 15 different teams made the World Series, with only the Yankees, Giants, Phillies, Red Sox, and Cardinals having been more than once.  Many baseball experts interpret this to mean that competitive balance in baseball is higher than it ever has been, but I don't think this is exactly the case.  Don't get me wrong- competitive balance is certainly high and we've seen a lot of small market success stories recently, but the problem is sustaining the team that got them there.

The surprising but lovable 2003 Marlins team that upset the Yankees to win the World Series was an example of how these teams can win, but can't be sustained in a market like Southeast Florida.  The 2003 heroes of ace Josh Beckett, center fielder Juan Pierre, second baseman Luis Castillo, starter Brad Penny, starter Carl Pavano, first baseman Derrek Lee, and third baseman Mike Lowell were all off the Marlins by 2006, signing with or being traded to the Red Sox, Cubs, Twins, Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, and Red Sox respectively.  Franchise faces from 2003 third baseman Miguel Cabrera and ace Dontrelle Willis would both be gone just a season later in a trade to Detroit.  In fact, Cabrera and Willis were the only players on the 2006 Opening Day roster remaining from the 2003 team.

The Marlins have become known for frequently executing a relatively modern tactic known as the firesale.  The firesale is an instant rebuilding strategy, seen in small markets who have an excellent young core of winning players with low salaries who have yet to cash in a big contract.  The small market team must commit to a firesale because, with lower revenue the market generates than big market teams like the Yankees, the team is not in a financial position to keep the players long term once they become free agents and demand large contracts.  If the players are traded before they hit free agency, then the team can rebuild using the prospect returns from those trades instead of getting nothing back.  The disassembling of the 2003 squad was the second most famous such firesale, the most famous being after the 1997 World Champion Marlins were disassembled to become an 108-loss team just the very next season, setting a record for the most losses in a season following a championship.

No team can execute a firesale better than the Florida Marlins, but this raises a question.  How many other teams would need to execute a firesale?  The answer is not many.  The 1997 Marlins won the World Series with the 5th highest payroll in the league, a very rare figure for them, and fell to 27th the very next year.  The Marlins started new players at all eight position player spots!  Meanwhile, the 1996 Yankees won the World Series with some of the key players being shortstop Derek Jeter, closer Mariano Rivera, and ace Andy Pettitte.  The Yankees next won the World Series in 1998, and by then power hitting catcher Jorge Posada had joined the key players.  In 2009, eleven years and around $488 million later, Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, and Posada all remained despite Pettitte's three year trip to Houston.  That's alarmingly close to the $581 million the Marlins have spent on players in the entire 18-year history of the franchise!  The Marlins clearly can't compete with that.

An overarching point here is that while many teams have made the World Series in recent years, the small to medium market teams aren't able to sustain the success.  Dynasties are not a thing that can be built by teams like the Marlins.  So it should be not surprise that the team that won six out of eight American League pennants from 1996-2003 was the New York Yankees.  Imagine if the Marlins had signed Moises Alou to a big contract extension after he helped them win the 1997 World Series, and the Marlins were able to take advantage of Alou's 225 career homers after 1997.  Who knows what the Marlins could have done with him as the center foundation for all of their young talent?  Unfortunately, we will never know.

The Florida (soon-to-be Miami) Marlins have hope.  In 2012, the gleaming new retractable roof stadium in Miami's Little Havana neighborhood will open, reinventing the entire franchise.  The new stadium will the kind of revenue the Marlins have never seen, and they will finally be able to sign at least one franchise player for a long time.  For other teams, like the other Florida team in the Tampa Bay Rays, such hope is not so easy to come by.  So for the other financially struggling small to medium market teams out there (the Pirates, Reds, Padres, Royals, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Blue Jays, Athletics), I have some advice.  Don't trust the system; you can't just lay back, play a bunch of rookies and expect a turnaround.  Especially for the Royals and Pirates, a big change is needed if the young players are all duds.  A reinvented scouting and development department is in order, and the team should not be satisfied with the prospects until they are making a difference at the major league level.  For some teams, like the A's, a lack of revenue is hurting the franchise's potential.  In this case, every effort must be done to make the team relevant in the community.  This means having unique promotions to get the fans in the current ballpark and get the fans excited about the team's future.  Also, an increased focus on community outreach from the players should be involved; the community needs to know this isn't an organization utilizing the city, it's an organization representing the city.  Eventually, enough attention should be focused so that the government will help fund a new stadium.

To all small market teams out there, good luck.  Because although winning out of a small market may not be a huge challenge, sustaining it sure as hell is.  And although the Marlins have made the playoffs only twice and have never won their division but won the World Series twice since 1993, I hold more respect towards those accomplishments than I do for the Yankees' 17 playoff appearances and five championships during the same time frame.  After reading all this, I hope you do too.          

Postseason Preview: LCS

So I got three of four series correct in the LDS.   The only one I got wrong was Phillies-Reds, and if I were to get one wrong that would be the one I would want because that was the long shot pick.  The League Championship Series on both sides should be exciting, but I have to admit my attention keeps veering over to the American League.  The Yankees are such a great team and do so much right, yet it's exactly a team like the Rangers that could beat them.  What the Rangers are doing right now is so incredible, and the fans have to be feeling it too.  The weird part is, the Rangers lost two games at home when they could've won the series only to take the finale in St. Petersburg, which wrapped up just a terrible home three game performance by the Rays.  It was the first time in postseason history a road team won every game.  Believe it or not, the Yankees and Rangers aren't all that separated when it comes to pitching.  The national media and MLB Network have mentioned that the Yankees should be glad that the ALDS went on so long for the Rangers, because now Cliff Lee won't start Game 1.  I see this differently.  I think it works out better for the Rangers, because in Game 1 Lee would be going against C.C. Sabathia and that is likely to be a low scoring game, and the Yankees have a better chance of beating Lee there which really hurts the Rangers chances.  It's C.J. Wilson starting Game 1, a 15-game winner whose 3.35 ERA is only 17 points worse than Sabathia's.  Anybody remember Sabathia's postseason struggles in 2007?  How about 2008?  2009 not so much, but it's hard to forget 20 ER in 19 IP with 17 walks and 27 hits over two seasons.  Wilson could easily pitch a good game and, with some run support, steal a win in the first one.  Phil Hughes went 18-8 but had an ERA nearly half a run higher than the less lucky run support recipient Colby Lewis at just 12-13.  That is pretty much an even matchup and could go either way.  Andy Pettitte goes in the third against Lee, and Pettitte's last season injuries may affect his performance.  Lee is on a serious hot streak and can't be stopped, here he gets the nod at home which he didn't have in either of his starts in the ALDS.  That is certainly a winnable game for the Texas Rangers.  They aren't afraid to win on the road.  With the increased intensity of the ALCS, I think the Rangers will also start winning at home now.  I'm going Rangers.  It's more realistic than it seems, as the Yankees will probably overlook them as Michigan would overlook Appalachian State (we all know how that turned out).  TEX in 6.

Over to Philly for Game 1 against San Fran.  Roy Halladay will not throw another no-hitter, and this time the Phillies need to realize their opponent has something the Reds didn't: momentum.  The Reds were sort of cruising along, clinched the title on a big homer then just relaxed until the playoffs.  The Giants are coming off this intense series with Atlanta and then it got emotional at the end with Bobby Cox.  All of this is why the Giants will be excited and setting up an offense against Halladay, if even just a bit.  Tim Lincecum was dominant his first start of the playoffs, and the Giants have a great shot to win if he does that again.  Jonathan Sanchez, not Matt Cain, goes in Game 2.  Interesting move by Bruce Bochy to save his #2 for Game 3 at home, which in my opinion is more important than Game 2 if the other team has home-field advantage.  The Phillies will likely go with Hamels and Oswalt in those spots, or possibly flipped.  I think it matters less to the series because the bottom line is both are real good pitchers.  Real good.  I like the Giants bullpen over the Phillies this season.  They have the setup men in place including a ridiculous run by Ramon Ramirez.  The always consistent Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo are the other two keys guys in play here.  The problem for me is, as much as I want the Giants to win, I know it's unlikely.  There is just too much to ignore with the pitching, and the chances the Giants escape and low scoring pitchers duel is unlikely because, despite the Phillies midseason offense struggles, they still swing the bat much, much better than the Giants.  Aubrey Huff and Buster Posey have all the power responsibility on their shoulders, and that's kind of a lot to ask for an above average vet and rookie.  Ryan Howard had one of the worst years of his career, which isn't saying much, and I think he will struggle in the series because of the power pitching mixed with the offspeed stuff.  With that heat the Giants have, it won't take much to smoke Howard.  Chase Utley is dangerous and pesky, while the definition of pesky is Shane Victorino.  The other offensive weapons in Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, and Jimmy Rollins do many things right.  The Giants were also not afraid to win on the road, so home field advantage may be overrated this year (home teams went 8-12 in the LDS).  PHI in 5.

Note: Goodbye, Bobby Cox.  I'm not sure what to make of the Braves hiring Fredi Gonzalez that very next day, though.  A great hire, but I'm not sure about the timing.  It's like they were trying to quickly forget about him or something, when I believe now is when the Braves and fans should have some time to reflect on his accomplishments.  In Spring Training some experts said the Braves would manage one last playoff spot for Cox, and I didn't think they could do it.  Hat off to you, Atlanta.

Road Trip Wrapup: Houston, Colorado

Record: 1-5
Final Record: 46-59
Games Behind First: 13 GB

This season probably marks the end of the playoff hopes for the Cubs.  With 57 games remaining and 13 games behind first, there is virtually no chance the Cubs can reach St. Louis and Cincinnati.  This series saw the Cubs do a whole bunch of things wrong and it was quite ugly.

On Monday the Cubs continued on their semi-roll with a 5-2 win improving to 7-4 after the break.  Carlos Silva, who had been just 1-4 in his last five decisions, got a win and Carlos Marmol closed it out after doubles by Geovany Soto, Marlon Byrd, and Alfonso Soriano collectively drove in four runs.  The most notable scoring on the night, however, was when in the 6th Ryan Theriot, wearing his socks high for a change of pace, homered to left center.  The homer was his first in 2010 and first since June 2009.  The next night Ted Lilly made his last start as a Cub and sadly it was a loss even though he got a no-decision.  Getting the worst run support in the major leagues, Lilly got none on this night while he was in and had to hang around for 5.2 innings before the Astros started scoring.  The Astros got two in the seventh before Lance Berkman hit a grand slam to open it wide open.  Being a face of the franchise for many years, that would be Berkman's last homer as an Astro before he was traded to the Yankees on Saturday.  A Tyler Colvin homer was the only damage the Cubs could muster against Brett Myers who threw a complete game.  Myers has been terrific for Houston, going at least six innings in every start this season.  Surprisingly, he was not traded but rather will become the ace of the staff after Roy Oswalt's Thursday trade to the Phillies for J.A. Happ and other prospects.  In the finale Randy Wells gave up three of the eight runs the Astros would score in the final three innings.  Carlos Lee hit two homers, including one off the foul pole that sent the fans home with chicken due to a local promotion.  The Astros took two of three.

Friday night in Colorado was all about making history.  That meaning the Rockies scoring 12 in one inning.  After an Ian Stewart homer that cleaned the bases obviously, the Rockies put up five more.  12 in total.  12!  Rockies win 17-2.  Carlos Gonzalez will remember the game Saturday night for his entire life, hitting a walk-off homer that completed the cycle.  Impressively, the Cubs rallied to tie it at five from a huge Derrek Lee homer.  However, the second Rockies cycle in as many years against the Cubs (Troy Tulowitzki did it last year) powered the Rockies to another win.  Carlos Silva was removed in the first inning with an irregular heartbeat and that accurately describes the state of the Cubs right now.  The Rockies got two in that inning before Blake DeWitt, the newest Cub, stepped in in the top of the 2nd.  He hit an RBI double off the wall in right field, putting the Cubs on the board in his first Cubs at-bat.  It was a blowout at 8-1 by the fifth in the Rockies' favor, but the Cubs put together a mad rally.  Alfonso Soriano's solo homer in the 8th put the Cubs within four at 8-4 and the Cubs might have tied it in the 9th if not for Dexter Fowler, who stole Soriano from extra bases.  Byrd scored on the sac fly anyway, but Soriano probably would have made third with the carom of the ball back the center field.  Soriano would have been the tying run.  The Cubs couldn't finish the rally, and were swept.

The only thing I was impressed with on this trip was their ability to rally showed in the last two games in Colorado.  I am a big fan of that because it makes the other team uncomfortable.  You don't want the other team to be able to sit back and relax and not worry if they make stupid mistakes.  Also, this is a huge team confidence and morale builder even if the game is not won.  Everything else about this trip was terrible.  The playoff hopes, slim at the start of the trip, and now gone.  I will make a post soon about the horrible trade that sent Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Blake DeWitt and two minor leaguers.  I was quite sad at the deal and I was very surprised that Theriot was traded.  To find out why, read the upcoming post which should be posted in anytime from tomorrow to a couple of days from now.    

Why Bob Brenly Should Be the Next Cubs Manager

Bob Brenly was hired as the Cubs TV Color Commentator prior to the 2005 season and the most impressive spot on his resume that included stints as a player and manager was his 2001 World Series Champioship with the Arizona Diamondbacks.  He was a lifetime .247 hitter as a catcher in a nine year Major League career.  In his prime years, between 1984 and 1987, he hit .257 with 73 HR, 249 RBI, and 27 SB.  He was hired as a baseball analyst for Fox between 1996 and 2000, when he replaced Buck Showalter as Diamondbacks manager.  He went 303-262 as manager with two postseason appearances in three and a half years (he was fired after a 29-50 start to 2004).  After being replaced by Al Pedrique, he was hired the next season as Cubs TV color commentator to work with Len Kasper who had also just been hired.  Since then, Brenly has done a fantastic job in the broadcast booth speaking like a true baseball person.

There is lots of competition for this job, and yes I will get around all of them.  The list includes: Joe Girardi, Ryne Sandberg, Fredi Gonzalez, Joe Torre, and Brenly.  Girardi won NL Manager of the Year honors with the 2006 Marlins only to be fired the offseason following.  He became Yankees manager in 2008 and won the World Series his second year, leading those Yankees to yet another title.  Sandberg, a Hall of Famer for his amazing play at Wrigley in the 1980s and 90s, is currently managing the AAA Iowa Cubs after managing the Peoria Chiefs.  Just like the minor leaguers on his team, he is hoping for the call up to the show once again.  Gonzalez, highly respected in the baseball world for his admirable job managing the perennially underrated Marlins squad, has gone somewhat under the radar in this search.  While Lou Piniella retires likely to remain at 14th on the all-time wins leaderboard among managers, Torre ranks 4th all-time with 2,299 including 1,173 with the Yankees where he won six AL pennants and four World Series titles.  Currently managing the Dodgers, he has decided not to return to LA for 2011.

First, before I knock everyone else out, I need to sneak in a note about Ryne Sandberg.  Sandberg would be a fantastic Cubs manager.  His managing down on the farm is reportedly very good and not just a courtesy to a former great who wanted a shot at managing.  He is a hard-nosed baseball dude, and he played here and understands what that means as a member of the organization.  This is no small market club, and he truly believes he is capable of handling and succeeding at this job (http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/news/story?id=5398569), and Cub fans should believe in him.  If Bob Brenly isn't the Cubs manager for 2011, Ryne Sandberg is.  At least in my mind.

Brenly is my choice.  And here is why.  To become a great manager right away, instead of getting yourself settled for an entire year and figuring out everything on the job, you need to be familiar with everyone involved.  Brenly has been a part of this organization intensely since 2005, and knows everyone within it.  As a commentator, he is the guy who knows all of the stats about the Cubs strengths and weaknesses.  He knows what the fans are like.  He knows the players.  He knows the staff.  He knows how to manage.  He wears a World Series ring around.  He could make an immediate impact because he knows this club inside and out.  No other candidate can say that.