2011 Profiles: Carlos Pena

The Profile posts, which begin with this one on Carlos Pena, will continue for the rest of March as the Cubs' 2011 season approaches.  Each one focuses on an individual player with a key question pertaining to the player at the beginning, right below this paragraph in this case.

Can Carlos Pena prove that his glove and power will outweigh the unsightly number of strikeouts and the low batting average he produces?

Writer's Take: Simply, I think he will.  Pena has never homered at Wrigley Field, but he and those bleachers should become acquainted in no time.  I think it says a lot about somebody, either him or the Rays or both, that he was able to hit .196 on the season and still hit 28 homers and 84 RBIs.  If it says anything about him, it should be that he is basically an all-or-nothing type hitter who isn't going to go on any extended hitting streaks.  His walk total (373 since 2007) is nice, but his strikeout total (628) and batting average (.238) are not.  If it says anything about the Rays, it's that they felt significantly safer with Pena than Dan Johnson, the next in line for the job last season.  Pena's fielding is one of the top reasons why the Cubs even acquired him in the first place, and his skills will definitely be an improvement over those of Xavier Nady or Tyler Colvin.  Derrek Lee's strong fielding at first base probably made the Cubs front office realize that great fielding at that position is an asset valuable to the team, especially considering how Starlin Castro struggled fielding last year.  Pena provides stability defensively as a guy who has been at first base for a long time and not someone converted to the position like Nady or Colvin.  The acquisition of Pena meant the Cubs no longer needed Nady, and he signed with Arizona.

Right field at Tropicana Field is friendlier to lefties than Wrigley Field's right field is, but those howling winds which are obviously not a factor in the dome should make things interesting.  Pena also was not a good hitter within his own division; you can't blame him considering the talent the Red Sox, Yankees, and even Blue Jays have rolled out in recent years.  A move to the friendlier NL Central will do him some good.  Pena has to be a consistent power hitter for this experiment to work; a slump-buster who can wake the offense out of its tri-weekly mid-game nap.  Pena has something that the Cubs front office was surely looking for in patience and plate discipline for a team that lacked it on the 2010 version.  Basically, strikeout or no strikeout, Pena is a guy who goes up to the plate with a plan and makes adjustments to it on the fly.  Starlin Castro, whose lack of plate discipline was notable in his rookie season, could use some of that adjustments stuff.  In a lineup where three of the starters are unproved and raw offensively in Castro, Colvin, and Blake DeWitt, Pena's arrival should show results through other players, too.

Ideal Production (what the Cubs need from him to win): .250+ batting average, 30+ homers, 80+ RBIs, 90+ walks, .375+ on-base percentage.

Expert Opinion: While I may think Pena will be effective in what will probably be his one and only year on the North Side, ESPN.com's A.J. Mass doesn't agree.  Pena could be a bust like Mass suggests, or Pena could be one of the best bargains of the offseason.              

  

Speed Thrill Skill

Back in late July at the Trade Deadline, when Ryan Theriot was traded to the Dodgers, I predicted that Jim Hendry would acquire some kind of speed in the offseason.  He has yet to do so, and the clock is ticking.  Theriot stole 16 bases in four months of Cubs baseball, but he still led the team.  Besides him, the 2010 Cubs were led in steals by Starlin Castro with 10; while being caught eight times.  Castro is raw and one can expect production of 20+ steals in the future with his speed, but his development can really be relied upon as the team's main source of speed.  Behind Castro was Kosuke Fukudome with seven; he was also caught a ridiculous eight times.  Speed is clearly a problem and has not been a strength for the Cubs in quite some time.  The last prototypical leadoff man on the North Side was none other than Kenny Lofton; and he lasted three months.  The player I suggest the Cubs try to acquire is not a prototypical leadoff man either, but he is much closer to it than anyone the Cubs have.  The name is B.J. Upton, a 26 year old center fielder playing for Tampa Bay.  Upton has 20/20 potential (he did this in 2007); hell, he has 20/40 potential.  Upton has arguably one of the best five tool skill sets in baseball, but he has yet to put it all together.  He possesses the following abilities: hitting for average (.300 in 2007), decent power (24 homers in 2007), decent run production (82 RBI in 2007), improving plate discipline (97 BB in 2009), good overall scoring (89 runs in 2010), excellent speed (128 steals since 2008), good outfield range (1.5 defensive WAR in 2008), and good on-base percentage (.383 in 2008).  As a big B.J. fan, I've been waiting for a breakout year for quite some time now.  Perhaps a change of scenery is in order.  The Rays, now in a rebuilding mode, aren't going to let him run off for nothing, however.  So here is the trade I propose:

To the Cubs:
CF B.J. Upton
1B Dan Johnson

To the Rays:
RF Kosuke Fukudome (Cubs work out some kind of salary arrangement)
SP Chris Archer
RP James Russell
C Welington Castillo

The Rays, although they have already acquired a few relievers in Cesar Ramos and Joel Peralta, but need more and James Russell is a guy they can work on to make him into an effective middle reliever.  Russell is never going to be a standout player in his career, but he should be a reliable and effective middle reliever for at least a bunch of years.  Chris Archer is the top pitching prospect in the Cubs system, someone the Cubs front office has been excitedly anticipating for a while now.  He can start, but would probably end up in the bullpen with the Rays depth of starters.  Archer is the key prize and centerpiece of this deal.  Kosuke Fukudome has been someone the Rays have discussed in the past and they would be willing to take him but the Cubs would probably have to pay for more than half of his salary.  Fukudome probably has one more chance with a Major League team before his career starts falling apart.  He needs to prove himself, and fast.  Welington Castillo is a prospect the Rays can throw into the catching core that already includes John Jaso, Kelly Shoppach, and Dioner Navarro.  But neither Navarro nor Shoppach hit well enough anymore to have an everyday job, and certainly by the end of next season one of them will not be with the Rays.  It's no secret the Rays aren't afraid to talk trade involving Shoppach namely.

The Cubs get the main guy, B.J. Upton, and first baseman Dan Johnson just to add some depth to the infield.  With Xavier Nady signing with the Diamondbacks, the Cubs no longer have a backup first baseman and will be stuck with Jeff Baker instead, who shouldn't be playing over there.  Baker is an okay infielder, but he shouldn't be the backup for the entire infield and Johnson gives the Cubs a veteran who won't do much offensively but will do enough defensively and give Carlos Pena a little break every once in a while.  Johnson was also played at third base for a short time with the Rays, and this could be something the Cubs experiment with as well.

The upsides to this deal are enormous.  With Upton, the Cubs would offensively be a playoff caliber team just one season after looking lost and disinterested at the plate.  If they could add a veteran starter, these Cubs could make it over the .500 mark.  But speed is crucial.  We don't want the opposing pitchers to be comfortable to pitch and not be distracted by a potential base stealer.  We also don't want to be reliant on hits to move guys around like we did last season.  If Jim Hendry doesn't acquire Upton, which is by far the more likely option, then just pray he gets some kind of speed on this team.  It could be a long, and slow, summer without that speed thrill skill.  

The Ricketts Report

It's been more than a full year since Tom Ricketts and family took over as owners of the Chicago Cubs.  In the first year, the Ricketts have made noticeable changes.  They have made numerous changes to make the Cubs and Wrigley Field better, all while maximizing revenue.  They have received credit for the improvements, coming from a fan base tired of general statements from Chicago Tribune spokespeople and press secretaries.  There have also been criticisms of the Ricketts, especially due to the unusual and unique situation of owning the Cubs, certainly a franchise different than any other.

In the opening press conference on the day the sale of the Cubs was completed, in fall 2009 shortly after the end of the regular season, Tom Ricketts stated that if anyone in the Cubs organization believed that the franchise was cursed, he would move them to a 'lesser-cursed' team.  Among many philosophies, the Ricketts instilled from Day 1 that there is no curse surrounding the team.  This highlighted a politically correct press conference, playing conservative and saying nothing unexpected, and would set the tone for the offseason.  A new marketing campaign was launched upon, dubbing the new slogan, 'Year One'.

The 2009-10 offseason was not an aggressive one for the Cubs, who were just glad to be rid of the cancer known as Milton Bradley.  Marlon Byrd was the only positional starter signed, while the other veteran bats in Xavier Nady, Chad Tracy and Kevin Millar were intended for the bench.  A solid pickup in Byrd, but not one that could turn the Cubs into a playoff team.  The Ricketts announced change would be coming to Wrigley Field in 2010, and this could be found in the ballpark.  While not immediately noticeable, the changes include a better variety of food options including popular new nachos served in a replica helmet for $15.  Some bathrooms were remodeled (womens only; no wonder neither you nor I noticed).  Ticket prices were raised to add more revenue, improvements were made to the Captain Morgan Club outside the stadium, a new exclusive club called the PNC Club, created in the space of six former skyboxes, opened in midseason with a full bar, lounge area, seats outside, and a hefty admission tag.  Most importantly, the Cubs hired 'fan relations' staff whose job it was to learn what fans thought of the changes, and what could be done to improve further.  I was quite surprised when a fan relations staff member approached and asked me many thorough questions about the changes at the ballpark.  Of course, all of the efforts made by the Ricketts in this paragraph were all to help accomplish one goal; increase revenue.

While the Ricketts have attempted to get in touch with the fan base, many aren't sure they're listening.  It has been just one calendar year since the completed sale of the team, so withheld judgment may be necessary, but some attempts to increase revenue have not sat well with the fan base.  For example, raising ticket prices before the 2010 season was not a great idea, considering how prices have raised faster than dollar inflation in recent years.  The Cubs overtook the Red Sox in 2010 with the highest average ticket price of any MLB team at $52.56.  That figure was 10.1% increase over 2009 and a drastic comparison to the Arizona Diamondbacks' league lowest rate of $14.31.  In this current offseason of 2010-11, the Ricketts announced a proposal to the government of Illinois, a publicly-funded renovation plan of Wrigley Field.  Under the plan, fans would pay a majority of funds for the renovation through extra taxes at the ballpark and on tickets, merchandise, and the like.  Somehow, the White Sox were able to command government money to build a new stadium in the early 90s after they nearly moved to Tampa.  But now, when the Cubs decide to renovate Wrigley Field, which should be the equivalent of building a new stadium but with the same structure, we, the public, have to pay for it.  Despite the economy, the government needs to understand the vitality of this project due to the projected economic growth to the area (read on).  The renovations include the construction of the infamous Triangle Building to the immediate west of Wrigley.  The building will connect to Wrigley and have shops, restaurants, fan entertainment, a Cubs Hall of Fame, underground batting cages for the players, administrative offices, and more.  While the renovations look to create jobs and economic growth for the area (a projected $3 billion over the next 35 years), it will cost the fans plenty of money in the new taxes.  Execution of the plan is still in jeopardy, because if the Cubs continue to lose and attendance continues to drop, the revenue stream for the plan could fail.

This brings up another topic of conflict with the Ricketts ownership: winning.  The Cubs didn't do it much in 2010 and Cub fans were disappointed in the Ricketts' attempts to fix the team.  While they may be concerned about revenue first now, the team needs to win to keep fans happy.  At the moment the Cubs are being held down by bad contracts (Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome) and are short on financial flexibility.  The problem, though, is that the Ricketts are afraid to take an aggressive move this early in the ownership to win.  For example, the hiring of Mike Quade over Ryne Sandberg was the politically correct move.  Actually, both would have been politically correct, but the hiring of Quade and letting go of Sandberg is more justifiable than the vice versa option.  Quade went 24-13 at the end of the season, was supported by virtually every player on the roster, and was backed strongly by Lou Piniella.  Sandberg had paid his dues in the minors and had done everything he could to win the job, but didn't win out because his hiring would have meant a smack in the face to the entire organization that had come to like Quade.  I'd expect more aggressive moves this season, but it may not be enough.  The players and staff need to understand that the Cubs will not put up with a lack of effort or failure.

In conclusion, the Ricketts shouldn't have started their ownership of the franchise with passive action.  Renovations and improvements to the fan experience hold promise to make the Wrigley Field environment a more enjoyable one, but the methods of achieving this goals continue to raise eyebrows and uncertainty.  This team has missed the playoffs in two straight seasons, by a relatively wide margin, while failing expectations both seasons.  Neither have been good for the franchise, and winning is the crucial fix to many problems.  Winning can set up a chain reaction through a revitalization of the team meaning more revenue, that same original goal.  The Ricketts showed a disinterest in winning compared to revenue growth in 2010, a pattern that needs to change going forward.          

Homestand Wrapup: Philadelphia, Houston, St. Louis

Record: 6-4

Final Record: 45-54

Games Behind First: 10 GB

The Cubs caught fire on this homestand.  The record may not show it, but the Cubs really started to put everything together in this week of 10 home games, the longest homestand of the year.  With two of the three teams in playoff contention for the past few years, the Cubs would be put to the test.  Ironically, they went 5-2 against those two teams but struggled against the 5th place Houston Astros.

The Phillies came to town after the All-Star Break pretty beaten up.  They're missing Chase Utley, their All-Star 2B, Placido Polanco, Jamie Moyer, whose future in baseball is now in question at 47 years old, and they're also missing consistent production from 38 year old Raul Ibanez.  The Phillies were falling behind the Atlanta Braves and were just trying to hang on until their stars return which will permit them to make a run at it.  Starlin Castro was credited with a steal of home on what should have been a wild pitch to give the Cubs a 3-2 lead Thursday night, and they never looked back.  Homers by Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, and Geovany Soto and two two-run doubles by Aramis Ramirez allowed the Cubs to cruise to a 12-6 victory despite the unreliable Bob Howry giving up four in the ninth.  He gave up two RBI singles and then a two-run homer to Ryan Howard, his second such homer of the night.  Ramirez, already on a hot streak at the time, came up in the clutch Friday.  Trailing 3-1 in the 6th, Marlon Byrd hit a two-run homer to tie the game and then two innings later Ramirez gave the Cubs the lead with a homer of his own.  The Cubs once again overcame a homer by Howard to win.  Saturday had the kind of game that you can't lose when you are a team trying to get back in the race but down a whole bunch of games.  Excitingly scoring in a scoreless ballgame was Starlin Castro in the 7th and the Cubs looked for a shutout.  Carlos Marmol was brought on for the save and the wrong Marmol showed up that day.  He beat himself rather than letting the Phillies beat him allowing five walks to just one hit in only two thirds of an inning.  Four runs came around and just like that Brad Lidge shut the door in a very frustrating loss.  Moving onto Sunday night the Cubs knew a win would be tough off Roy Halladay.  However, the Cubs impressively jumped on him supporting Tom Gorzelanny with a homer from Soto in the second, a four-run inning.  Later, Soriano homered to drive in two including himself.  The Phillies made it 6-3, but a five-run 7th opened the game wide open.  Halladay went just six innings, an unusual low for the veteran, as the Cubs took three of four from Philly.

The Astros aren't having a season to remember.  Filled with a few overpaid veteran contracts with guys past their prime and minor leaguers with little talent rushed to the bigs, the Houston franchise is pretty out of sorts right now.  Years of neglect to develop talent in the minors is hurting them badly as the franchise is in 5th place.  The Cubs really wanted a series win against a poor team like this.  Carlos Silva struggled badly in the 1st Inning of the game Monday night, allowing five in his only inning pitched.  Jason Castro hit a three-run homer in the 3rd, his 2nd career homer and that gave the Astros an unbelievable 8-0 lead. Soon enough, however, the Cubs offense started to piece together a rally.  Two runs had already scored for the Cubs in the game when Tyler Colvin hit a solo shot, followed by Aramis Ramirez launching a two-run homer that really was amazing in the moment because the Cubs offense didn't usually fight back like they did Monday.  Four runs put the game out of reach including a homer from Chris Johnson, his first Major League homer.  Tuesday night the writer witnessed the best home game for the Cubs all season.  The Astros, in their red alternate road uniforms like always, got another early lead this time for six runs.  Ramirez hit a solo homer to chip into the lead that looked somewhat meaningless at the time.  Chris Johnson hit another homer, his second in as many days, and that negated Ramirez's cut into the lead.  Wesley Wright, making his first career start for Houston, really ran into trouble in the 5th.  A passed ball after a strikeout of Xavier Nady brought in a run, and then a Starlin Castro RBI groundout, and then another homer for Ramirez, this time a three-run homer.  Just like that, it became a 7-6 game.  The Cubs took advantage of their momentum now with Geovany Soto hitting a huge tater to center over the Batters Eye lounge (447 feet!) to tie it up.  But the Cubs weren't done yet.  Derrek Lee picked up three RBI over the next two innings and Alfonso Soriano added an RBI single, and that set the stage for history.  Coming up with a 11-7 lead, Aramis Ramirez batted with two on and an excited crowd backing him for what would happen next.  Another fly ball went zooming into the night, and Ramirez incredibly got his third homer of the night!  He is the first Cub to do that since Alfonso Soriano did it in Cincinnati in 2008 after he did it in Atlanta in 2007.  Ryan Dempster joked after the game about not getting the win despite watching his team score 14.  For the finale the Cubs became frustrating again because they were not able to get a hit when they needed to.  Tied at 1 almost the entire game, the Cubs put runners on base in the bottom of the 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th including multiple runners in all except the 10th.  If they had scored in any of the first three innings mentioned, it's game over.  But no, the Cubs did like they always do and they let the other team just sit and hang around until they come back and beat you.  Interestingly Soto hit a two-run homer in the 12th but it was too late and the Cubs lost by one.

A frustrating series loss to Houston gave the Cubs an off day to stew in their anger before the rival Cardinals came to town.  These games would prove to be crucial with the Cubs chasing them in the division, down by 11 games at the start of the series.  On Friday afternoon, Randy Wells gave the Cubs pure greatness forgetting his catastrophic start his last time against the Cardinals.  He allowed hits to the first five batters and didn't record an out back in May.  Wells went seven shutout innings to earn the win supported by homers from Colvin, Soto, and Soriano all of whom appeared pretty hot this homestand.  Colvin hit another leadoff homer on Saturday, pretending to be Soriano, but the lead didn't last long.  Tyler Greene singled in two runs, but that lead didn't last long either.  Starlin Castro hit his first Wrigley Field homer to give the Cubs the lead again 3-2.  A critical wild pitch in the 5th with a ball that was thrown away proved extremely important as the 6-3 lead would prove necessary as the Cardinals crawled their way back to 6-5 in the 8th.  The Cubs pulled out the nail biter however, Carlos Marmol picking up the save.  If the Cubs could sweep Sunday night on ESPN then they would be just eight games back of the Cardinals.  After an early 2-0 lead for St. Louis, the Cubs came back with rallies in the 4th and 5th.  Albert Pujols homered in the 6th to tie it, locking up the score for extra innings.  Again the Cubs wasted opportunities and Felipe Lopez burned them with a go-ahead homer in the 11th for the win.

The Cubs could have easily been 9-1 on this homestand.  The only game where they were truly beat was the one on Monday night against the Astros, and even then they put up a great fight.  But little issues like Carlos Marmol on Saturday and offense hitting with runners in scoring position didn't allow the Cubs to make as much progress as they would have liked.  As I said before, the Cubs to are looking better and beginning to put things together but the Astros series this week in Houston certainly isn't promising.  They'll be put to the test against a good team in the Rockies this weekend at Coors Field, where the Cubs are 38-36 all-time.

Homestand Wrapup: Chi Sox, Oakland, Los Angeles (AL)

Record: 4-5
Final Record: 31-38
Games Behind First: 7.0

For info on the first series against the Sox, go see the Crosstown Classic: Round One post right below this one.

Baseball fundamentals, specifically fielding, have not been a bright spot on the Cubs teams of recent years. When the Cubs were able to win with teams like 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2008, scouts cited the Cubs' high level of talent which made up for that.  However, the lack of fielding was put on display in bad fashion as the frustrated Cubs allowed too many unearned runs coming from errors and simply bad baseball.

Oakland put the pressure on the Cubs defense in game one of the series, winning 9-5 getting help from four errors committed by the Cubs, including Derrek Lee's first career two error inning.  Not only is Lee's bat unreliable these days, his former Gold Glove defense is failing him.  This game was completely ugly and the Cubs did not deserve to win.  Lee made up for it by smashing a homer to left in the 2nd Wednesday night, and the Cubs put up a zero in the error column in a 6-2 win.  Ryan Dempster pitched well and Alfonso Soriano amazingly put down a bunt, trying to play smallball on a team built for the homer.  But hey, if it works, I'll take it.  The Cubs got a surprising win on Thursday in comeback fashion with Kosuke Fukudome being the MVP in this one.  He scored to tie the game at 2 on Xavier Nady's sac fly in the 8th and hit a walk-off single to right to win it, 3-2.  Randy Wells was efficient and I was glad the Cubs were able to pull out this one.  The Cubs really need to be able to come back late in games, especially at home.  The opposing teams will play their bullpens more conservatively and basically just cruise to a win unless the Cubs make 'em earn it.  If they can't come back, at least make it a ballgame.

The Cubs did just that in the opener against the Angels.  In the former California and Anaheim Angels franchise's first ever trip to Wrigley Field, the Cubs' evil defense committed three errors and by the time the Cubs looked up at the scoreboard in the 8th it was 7-2 LA in front.  Tyler Colvin blasted a three-run homer in the 9th to make it a two run game for Derrek Lee, who redeemed himself for his error earlier in the game with a homer.  The rally died, though, and Fernando Rodney finished it.  There isn't much to talk about on Saturday.  It was all Angels.  Literally all Angels.  Howie Kendrick hit a leadoff homer for the first of his three RBI, and the game was pretty much over after Torii Hunter's blast two-run blast to make it 6-0 in the 5th.  Ted Lilly was nothing like his dominant self from the heroics of the Sunday nighter against the Sox a weekend ago.  The Cubs couldn't manage a run and fell 12-0.  Sunday was a nice rebound, and they really needed it.  Lou Piniella has now admitted he has done everything he can with this personnel to win, and the Cubs need to believe that.  It's on them now.  A 12-1 win like the one the Cubs got on Sunday would have been a whole lot sweeter if the mood didn't suggest that a win that day was probably more crucial than any other game so far this season.

Up next for the Cubs is Safeco Field in Seattle where the Cubs are 2-1 in franchise history.  2002, the first time the Cubs ever played the Seattle Mariners franchise, saw Mark Prior throw 124 pitches through seven shutout innings and 11 Ks to pick up a 2-0 win.  Freddy Garcia beat the Cubs in the next one 4-2, but Jon Lieber took the finale 5-1 and the Cubs won the series against the divisional contender at the team who were led by none other than manager Lou Piniella.  The Cubs also took two of three in 2007 at Wrigley Field, so the Cubs are 4-2 all-time against the Mariners.      

Crosstown Classic: Round One

There have been plenty of skeptics the last two years of the relatively dull popularity of the Cubs-Sox series.  However, I believe this series really revitalized it once again.

On Friday, the buzz returned to Wrigley Field as the Sox fans marched in.  They had plenty to cheer about with Alex Rios and AJ Pierzynski both collecting four hits and a homer each.  Carlos Quentin poured on the score with a homer along with a bunch of hits in the late innings, and the Sox rolled 10-2.  The only highlight and scoring for the Cubs came in the second when Alfonso Soriano hit a two run homer, the 300th of his career just two days after Derrek Lee got his in Milwaukee. 

Carlos Silva had reason to be frustrated Saturday.  More problems with Xavier Nady cost the Cubs another win.  Paul Konerko hit an RBI single early on that would have been caught with Tyler Colvin or Kosuke Fukudome in right.  However, Nady pulled up instead of going all out.  There wasn't any scoring until the top of the 8th, when Konerko hit an RBI single to the same spot and once again Nady pulled up.  The Cubs pushed across a run in the 9th, and the tying run was on base at the end of the game.  If Nady had gotten both of those like Fukudome or Colvin would've, the Cubs had a win.  I'm aware that Nady is basically a DH, but I really think that for him to be making over three million dollars to be a fifth outfielder/backup first baseman he needs to be diving at every opportunity.  Guys like him aren't playing all-out ball.

Sunday night was what has made this series a big deal again.  This was the definition of a pitchers duel.  Ted Lilly and Gavin Floyd both threw 6.2 IP of no hit baseball, but Alfonso Soriano doubled ending Floyd's no hitter.  On the next pitch, Chad Tracy brought him home with a single up the middle.  That was all the scoring the Cubs would need, but Ted Lilly lost his no hitter in the top of the 9th in shocking fashion against former Cub Juan Pierre.  Carlos Marmol loaded the bases, but got Carlos Quentin to pop out to end the ballgame.  Ted Lilly pitched by far the best game of his career.  The only thing that consistently bothered me was Jon Miller's constant mentioning of the no hitters in progress.  Joe Morgan even mentioned later that it "used" to be an unwritten rule not to mention it on the air.  They just said that because they realized that fans weren't too happy about what they were doing.

This series is changed.  You can bet this won't be the last time the media reminds you of what happened this weekend, especially with Ted Lilly.  I'm just putting it out there that if the Cubs follow the regular rotation with Lilly, he will get the first start of the second Sox series.  If both the Cubs and Sox are done for the season, which the upcoming two weeks of interleague play could decide, enjoy the next Crosstown Classic series in two weeks as the only playoff atmosphere either team will have in 2010.    

Road Trip Wrapup: Pittsburgh, Houston, Milwaukee

Final Record: 27-33
Trip Record: 3-6
Games Behind First: 7.5

It could be a long summer for these Cubs.  The Cubs, who can't live up to winning expectations, haven't been able to beat even the bad teams the last two years.  This road trip should have swung momentum in the opposite way it actually did, and with a 6-3 or 7-2 record the Cubs would be pumped to play the Sox to resume the interleague dockett.  But here we are again, asking questions about how guys like Felipe Paulino can overwhelm the Cubs offense for the majority of a game. 

The first two games in Pittsburgh were frustrating, but the way the Cubs played gave me an indication that they brought the winning attitude with their luggage this time.  The lead on Monday, May 31 slipped off a rare bad outing by Sean Marshall, including a Garrett Jones homer.  Hopefully Cub fans had something nice to do on this Memorial Day than allow themselves get stressed by this loss.  The next one, however, on the next night, was nothing short of heartbreaking for me.  It was one of the hardest losses to take this year, because of how fundamentally well the Cubs had been playing all evening.  Like mentioned in an earlier post, it was Neil Walker who drove the Ted Lilly pitch out for a huge go-ahead homer in the bottom of the 8th, and before the Cubs could react it was game over.  The next game was postponed, but on Monday the next week Carlos Silva squeaked out a quiet 6-1 win.

The Houston series was pathetic.  I don't care to recap Friday except that Felipe Paulino 'dealing.'  The Astros plastered together three runs, and that's it.  Aramis Ramirez and Tyler Colvin both homered Saturday night and the Cubs responded well pouring on eight runs.  Ryan Dempster went a strong 6.1 IP with 7 K, which made me think we were going to turn it around on the trip.  But no, as Carlos Lee hit a two-run homer in a three run first inning off Randy Wells on Sunday.  The Cubs left town having lost two of three. 

After playing the makeup game Monday in Pittsburgh, the Cubs headed to Miller Park where they are already 3-0 in 2010.  Two of the three games there were Pittsburgh-esque heartbreaking, as the Cubs fell in the opener because of a two blown leads in as many innings.  There were no runs until a Cubs rally in the 8th, but a Corey Hart homer gave that lead away on one pitch.  In the ninth, the Cubs put up another run only to put men on and Carlos Marmol surrended a go-ahead, walk off two run single to Casey McGehee.  ESPN carried Wednesday's game, and the inconsitent Cubs offense put up nine including five homers coming from three hitters.  The 9-4 win set the stage for a disaster Thursday.  Xavier Nady hit a two-run homer earlier in the game, but blew it anyway in the bottom of the 10th.  In a 4-4 game, Craig Counsell sacrificed Carlos Gomez to second with none out, but Gomez just kept going all the way to third.  Nady made a dumb throw, a very ill-advised action in youth baseball, and the throw got away, scoring Gomez and ending the game.  The whole thing happened so fast, it was unbelievable.  Here's my question: Nady was at first because Derrek Lee had the day off.  Understandable.  But the fact that Lee is a three-time gold glover who hates days off and was ready to go merits the question of why wasn't Lee, in a big extra inning game, inserted for defensive purposes over a perennial DH in Nady?

The Cubs really screwed up this time.  They played great baseball in seven of nine games, and easily could have won those seven.  If the Cubs can't beat these teams, then who can they?

Cubs Walk the Plank

It's been a fail against the Pirates this season.  The Cubs fell to 1-7 against the always futile Pittsburgh team Tuesday with a hard fought but disappointing effort.  Xavier Nady was the only offense, with a two-run homer the only tick for the Cubs in the 3-2 final score.  Does anyone know who Neil Walker (pictured, left) is?  Ted Lilly does, after giving up a huge go-ahead homer in the bottom of the 8th to him.  My point is just that these nobodies that the Pirates put out on the field (Delwyn Young, Steven Pierce, Chris Jakubauskas) should definitely not be the ones beating us.  I'd rather be beaten by Andrew McCutchen than some guy's first career MLB homer.  This game showed the Cubs' 2010 motto once again: When the going gets tough, so do the Cubs.  They can't beat the bad teams, but do alright against the good ones.  That isn't a very good indication heading into this weekend's series in Houston, a bad team that is now hot, but it is the right place to get the offense going.  There is a ton of time left in this division to make a move with only St. Louis and Cincinnati contending, but it would just be easier to take off the tension and start winning now.  Houston is bad in general, and Milwaukee can't win at home which is good for when the Cubs head there next week to make their second visit this season.  The Cubs haven't played in Houston yet this season, but are 3-0 at Miller Park and 5-1 against the Brewers overall in 2010.  Houston won 2 of 3 in April at Wrigley Field.

Cubs Positional Breakdown: Outfield

LF: Alfonso Soriano
Entering the 4th year of his enormous contract, Soriano is still looking for a full season.  Cub Nation has been very disappointed in the former 40-40 outfielder.  Playing just 135, 109, and 117 games in the last three years, respectively, he has only put up 82 HR and 47 SB.  He has also become a liability in left field.  His infamous hop catch has become the subject of much controversy surrounding his injury risk and arm.  His bat is prone to hot and cold streaks.  I have liked Soriano from the day he was signed, but have frequently been frustrated with him.  His bat is very potent and I think he should not be in the #6 spot in the batting order.  Leadoff isn't the answer either, but I just think #6 is too low.  This will be the most important season yet for Alfonso to produce before he loses all faith from the Cubs.

CF: Marlon Byrd
Byrd, nearly acquired before the 2009 season, is a fantastic replacement in the clubhouse for Milton Bradley.  A more reliable power bat, Byrd can also surprise everybody with slick defense by a big guy in center.  He will even steal a few bases.  I really like this signing because it is a perfect fit for the Cubs.  His deal was not outrageously expensive while the center field prospects can still be given plenty of time.  From what I've seen, Byrd's swing appears more slump-proof than that of Soriano's or Kosuke Fukudome's.  He can be a guy to keep the offense moving when everyone else is stuck, kind of like how Jeff Baker does.

RF: Kosuke Fukudome
A former MVP from Japan, Fukudome has yet to live up to his contract.  He had an 'effective' year by most fans' standards, but I have not seen enough.  In Japan, he used to be a 25 HR, 100 RBI, .300 AVG player but has yet to come close to any of those stats in America.  Fukudome has targeted a .300 AVG for his goal this year, but what about the power?  Fantasy-wise, Kosuke offers little to no value.  On the Cubs, he has offered great defense and a strong arm, but no power and some hitting slumps.

UTIL: Xavier Nady
Nady, a 25 HR hitter in 2008 with the Pirates and Yankees, was the perfect choice for a fourth outfielder.  He is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, so it is good that we aren't relying on him to be an everyday outfielder.  If he does in fact stay injured, we have a surplus of minor league outfielders ready to make the leap.  Nady is still a notorious BP hitter who lauches fly balls out.  His fly ball hitting style will be welcomed at Wrigley Field.

UTIL/AAA: Tyler Colvin
Colvin definitely got on the Cubs radar when he got a late call up in September.  He also put on some pounds to increase his power output, possibly the only flaw in his game.  He can steal some bases and impress in the field.  I haven't seen much of this guy, but his reports sound good.  I say bring him up!  He is in competition with Sam Fuld for the fifth outfielder spot.  I give the spot to Colvin.  Find out why in Fuld's description.  Colvin should be a ready and able fifth outfielder for the Cubs who all of a sudden have more outfield depth than they've had in at least a decade.  Look for him as a spot starter and late inning replacement.


UTIL/AAA: Sam Fuld
Fuld saw more time with the Cubs than Colvin did in 2009, all the more reason for Colvin to get more time.  However, Fuld will make it a tough decision for Lou Piniella and the Cubs brass.  Easily the best defensive outfielder for at least the last half decade on the Cubs, Fuld also surprised some with an average that hung around .300 for his limited at-bats.  He played in 65 games for 97 at-bats with great plate discipline but only two RBI, both of which were collected in the same game.  He will need to improve on that number.  I think with the outfield bench logjam of Nady, Colvin, and Fuld, I think that unless Fuld can move to another position or become a Mark DeRosa-type utility player, he doesn't fit into the 2010 Cubs puzzle, but I do hope to see him around in the future.