Dumping Grounds

The loss of Prince Fielder would make Milwaukee's
NLCS run their last for a while.

An opportunity is arising for the Chicago Cubs.  Even next season, the NL Central will be much weaker.  The Brewers, who will most likely lose Prince Fielder, don't have anyone explosive enough to follow up Ryan Braun. Braun will be walked.  And walked.  And walked.  After this current group of Brewers, losing lies ahead.  Milwaukee's farm system is ranked 30th (last) in MLB by Baseball America.

Even if the Cardinals keep Albert Pujols, they're not getting any younger.  To expect another elite season from 37-year-old-to-be Chris Carpenter would be foolish.  Losing Pujols also blows any chance they have for the playoffs next season.  The Cardinals are 24th in Baseball America's ranking.  

The Houston Astros, who had the worst season in franchise history in 2011, won't improve by much anytime soon.  Their farm system is ranked 26th.  And just like that, three NL Central teams have three of the worst 10 farm systems in MLB.  The Pirates are nearly the fourth, ranking at 19th.

Brett Jackson

That leaves the Reds (6th) and Cubs (16th).  The Cubs' ranking is good enough (the Sox are at 27th for comparison) but also misleading.  There are many, many average-to-above-average prospects in the system like starter Chris Carpenter who made his major league debut in June.  At one point, Jay Jackson was also projected to be in the Cubs starting rotation.  Both Jackson and Carpenter had awful seasons.  But they were just two of our many hopeful prospects who endured bad seasons in 2011.  A real weak point to the Cubs farm system is that, since Starlin Castro was called up 17 months ago, there are no stars or breakout talents.  Except for one.

Expectations are already too high for center fielder Brett Jackson.  A possible 20-20 threat, some fans and scouts have pegged him as the Cubs' answer leading off for a decade.  Just reading over a scouting report, however, makes me suspicious.  Anyone remember the last two Cubs prospects fitting the following description?  Athletic future Major League center fielder with good speed and power but strikes out too much for a lead off man.  That sounds too similar to Corey Patterson and Felix Pie, both busts who wound up in Baltimore.  Jackson will still be a good player in the Majors (knock on wood) mainly because he walks more than Patterson or Pie ever did, but Cubs fans shouldn't go overboard on thinking he's some super-prospect.

Josh Vitters with Da Comish

He's still only 21, but Cubs fans having been hearing about third baseman Josh Vitters forever.  Of course, being the 3rd overall pick of the 2007 Draft does come with a little added buzz.  He had a real fine year at AA, and if he keeps it up he'll be a September call-up in 2012.  However, he walked less than once every 20 at-bats.  Although he doesn't strike out much either, he could start striking out a lot more when pitchers figure him out.  81 RBI in 488 plate appearances (in the minors)?  I'll take it.  But he'll need to learn how to make pitchers work before he becomes an elite prospect.

My point is that while these guys are good, they all have at least one notable flaw.  Therefore, none are elite.  Furthermore, none are even that close to being 'sure bets' to produce in the Major Leagues.  The system needs more quality prospects and the Cubs should trade to get them.  The new GM, whether it be Theo Epstein or not, hopefully will pick up on this need.  But who should be traded in order to get these prospects?  Glad you asked.

Marlon Byrd

Marlon Byrd is as definite a candidate as there is.  Despite having a terrible season, he seems to still be somewhat of a fan favorite among Cubs fans.  In 2010, he was a fan favorite as well, and deservedly so.  He was an All-Star, brought smiles and a key veteran presence and decent production offensively and defensively.  This season, he hit in the face by an Alfredo Aceves fastball in May.  He missed extensive time but was no better when he came back.  Although he hit a respectable .276, he hit .198 with runners in scoring position.  In 482 plate appearances, he drove in 35 runs.  Let's review.  In 488 plate appearances, Vitters drove in 81.  With only six more plate appearances, Josh Vitters drove in 46 more runs than Byrd - in AA!  That speaks more to Byrd's failure than Vitters' success.

Carlos Marmol should also be considered.  I hate to admit this because Marmol can be so fun to watch and dominating when focused, but he's overpaid and inconsistent.  The Cubs would probably have to pay some of his salary if he were to be traded.  A good presentation and aggressive bargaining, however, could land the Cubs a premium prospect.  Sean Marshall is ready for the closer's role.  I'm not recommending a trade of Marmol this offseason for the sake of dumping Marmol, but there isn't anyone not named Starlin Castro who is untouchable on this roster.  If a team is willing to give up a good prospect to get Marmol, the Cubs need to pounce.

This next one might be a surprise to many, but Geovany Soto could go at the right price.  If the Cubs have another slow start in 2012, it could be just to time to unload Soto while his contract is still cheap and he is attractive to other teams.  Welington Castillo should get a fair chance at the Major League job, seeing as he can play defense and hit, unlike our other backup of the last three seasons (Koyie Hill).

Alfonso Soriano

Lastly, Alfonso Soriano is a real stretch.  A trade would mean the Cubs would eat nearly all of his remaining $54 million over three years.  However, his 88 RBI last season could be inviting to a general manager who would only have to pay a few million for it and could possibly even DH Soriano.  If the Cubs pay a big majority of the contract, prospects would come their way.

The bottom line is that there are many players on the Cubs right now that are no longer totally necessary.  The Cubs are going to need some core pieces to build a team around and surrounding youngsters who will develop, eventually resulting in winning.  These core pieces could be acquired by free agency, but there are too many players on the roster that are holding the team back and are being kept for all the wrong reasons.  Recently the Cubs have boasted about their record-spending in scouting, domestically and internationally.  Why not show it off now by getting under-the-radar prospects?  With better scouting in the past, the Cubs' current center fielder could have been Jacoby Ellsbury.