Why Reed Johnson Should Have Gone Out On Top

I'm probably not on the same page as most other Cubs fans on this issue, but I think there's something to be said against the resigning of Reed Johnson, which took place a couple weeks ago.  So far I've been complementing the Cubs on pretty much all of their offseason moves, including the signings of Manny Corpas and Andy Sonnanstine and the trades of Sean Marshall and Tyler Colvin.  I did have reservations on the David DeJesus deal, but there are some things I like there, like his versatility and consistent approach.  The Johnson deal, however, simply doesn't make sense to me.  I'll explain why.

Johnson will be 35 in 2012, entering his fourth out of five seasons with the Cubs (he played with the Dodgers in 2010).  An unquestioned fan favorite who has a knack for clutch offensive skills and all-out, aggressive defense, he is a fundamentally strong baseball player.  Of the five tools, only his contact hitting and defense stand out.

I was formally introduced to Johnson in June 2005 as he hit a three-run homer at Wrigley Field with the Toronto Blue Jays.  He made a much bigger name for himself, however, once he came to a market that would truly appreciate his talent in the North Side of Chicago.

I have always been a Reed fan myself; it's hard not to be when he's the only one who operates at 110% of his ability on defense.  However, the Cubs just recently had a logjam in the outfield in 2010 as Kosuke Fukudome and Tyler Colvin battled for at-bats in right field.  Seems like the Cubs are asking for another one.  Sure, Johnson doesn't need many at-bats or hardly any starts, but he also shouldn't warm the bench for a week straight.

Personally I'd rather see Tony Campana, who was projected as the fourth outfielder, to fill the role that Johnson will in 2012.  Campana, although raw and unknown in potential, is young and has something to prove, unlike Johnson.  Campana's speed factor, which produced 24 steals in very limited playing time last year, is very valuable to a roster that seriously lacks it.  While Johnson plays hard on defense to the naked eye, his defense stats tell that he doesn't field it like he used to.  Johnson's range factor and fielding percentage were both below league average, not to mention a -.1 defensive wins above replacement compared to Campana's .9, even though Johnson got more playing time.

I don't need any statistics, however, to tell you that Theo and Jed are exercising a youth movement.  New Cubs regulars will include Ian Stewart, Travis Wood, and Bryan LaHair/Anthony Rizzo, all of whom are younger than those that they replaced in Aramis Ramirez, Rodrigo Lopez, and Carlos Pena, respectively.  Even though Johnson is a role player, his role is a misfit to me.      

Cubs Dump Sean Marshall; Acquire Travis Wood, 2 prospects from Reds

Sean Marshall, traded to Cincinnati, was the Cubs' best reliever

Cincinnati overpays for bullpen depth in the first Cubs rebuilding package

Vacation Note: I just got a look at the Miami Marlins’ new ballpark; pretty sweet.  If you’re in Miami and looking for it, I think it would be more helpful if I told you to look for an alien spaceship though.  The huge retractable roof stadium, named New Marlins (insert corporate sponsor here) Ballpark, is extremely tall and a sleek silver color all the way around with an oval-like curvature.  You can peek inside from behind the outfield (where the walls are open) and see the jumbotron and some of the upper deck seats.  I hope to return to see a game in the near future. 

      

Although it’s old news by now, the trade of Sean Marshall to Cincinnati was probably the most important of the offseason so far.  Its importance should not be overlooked.  Even though it was a trade of a setup man for a back-end, somewhat unproven starter and two prospects unheard of to the everyday fan, it represents the first rebuilding deal the Cubs have completed in, well, a while.  ‘Rebuilding’ has not exactly been the Cubs’ cup of tea over the last decade.  Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, however, are believers. 

In this faith, the Cubs will surely execute more rebuilding deals at some point, if not in the next month or so.  MLBTradeRumors.com is reporting interest from the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, and Marlins in Matt Garza, although Detroit and Miami are the front runners at this point.  It may seem like a trade of Garza, especially following Marshall’s, would be the official raising of the white flag on the 2012 Cubs season.  However, the trade with the Rays that brought Garza to the Cubs must have looked the same way to their fans.  They basically dealt their ace for a handful of minor leaguers but made the playoffs anyway.  I’m not saying the Cubs will make the playoffs by any stretch if they make a Garza trade, but it wouldn’t transform them into a 100-loss team either. 

Travis Wood

The trade of Marshall overall certainly makes the current Cubs a worse team, seeing as the bullpen was the team’s lone major strength on the roster.  Marshall was the center piece as one of the best setup men in the game.  A very pressing need, though, in rotation depth was aided by this trade, as 25-year-old Travis Wood joins the roster.  Wood has played in two major league seasons with decent yet inconsistent success.  

Looking at the Cubs rotation right now, though, this includes Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza pending any possibly trade, Andrew Cashner, and Randy Wells, and you can see the Cubs need this depth.  I’d much prefer Wood over any of Rodrigo Lopez, Ramon Ortiz, or Doug Davis.  Wood wasn’t born with blow-away stuff but is almost a solid rotation candidate, and that’s good enough for me.

Now on to the smaller pieces of the deal.  The Cubs only had to give up Marshall to for the deal, but the Reds gave up Wood, the great-hitting outfielder Dave Sappelt and undersized but agile and speedy shortstop Ronald Torreyes.  Sappelt has limited major league experience; Torreyes has none.  But both players have hit well throughout the minor leagues and Torreyes brings major speed.  Sappelt could see some action on the 2012 Cubs as a sixth outfielder/injury replacement.  Torreyes has no chance of appearing at Wrigley next season; he ought to try Double-A first.  He is recorded at 5’9” but in reality is around 5’8” or 5’7” (very similar to Dustin Pedroia).  I like both players and think they both have a decent shot at being major league regulars.  Neither stars, but solid players.  ESPN’s Keith Law agrees, and I concur with Law that the Cubs have won this trade. 

Dave Sappelt

Marshall provides the Reds with bullpen insurance.  I guess he’s the logical closer or back-up closer (which they will need, considering Francisco Cordero’s recent occasional closing issues and that he's unlikely to resign) although he has never been actually been tested as closer before.  When Carlos Marmol lost the job last summer, Marshall got a few chances in the ‘closer-by-committee’ role but that wasn’t enough of a trial to serve judgment.  He’s a loss because he has been the most consistent reliever on the Cubs since 2009 and only he and Marmol have even been a part of the unit since then.

If only counting for the trade’s effect on 2012, I still like the trade.  When early injuries to Wells and Andrew Cashner last season exposed a blatant lack of depth, Jim Hendry was forced to sign Ortiz, Davis, and Lopez in bad veteran signings who had to be signed just to fill the lineup card on a daily basis.  With this move and move forthcoming, the Cubs won’t have to do that.  Wood is young and here to stay while he develops.  It’s safe to say he will improve over the next few years.  Marshall is at his peak right at this moment and at age 29, it's hard to see him getting better over time.  He's elite at the moment but will only go downhill from here.  So in both the long-term and short-term, this deal really does makes sense for the Cubs.

         

Homestand Analysis: Cincinnati, Washington

Record: 4-2
Final Record: 51-67

Fresh off that major sweepage in the Steel City, the Cubs returned home to face a reeling Cincinnati team that had pretty much knocked themselves out of postseason contention.  The underperforming Reds, expected by many to battle the Cardinals and Brewers for the division all season long, came into Friday's game at 57-61 and 10 games behind division-leading Milwaukee.  The Cubs wouldn't make it any easier for them either, as the Cubs, or Tony Campana rather, motored past the Reds in a 4-3 win to open the series.

Campana's first-inning inside-the-park-homer, which also scored Starlin Castro, was the first home run of his career.  In fact I remember Len and Bob once remarking on a broadcast that it was as likely that Campana's first homer came in the park as it was over the wall.  It was just an amazing sight to behold and one of the most exciting plays in baseball, although near the end there was little doubt the little guy would make it.  The left fielder was a first baseman named Yonder Alonso who apparently hadn't adapted well to his temporary position, as he ran into the wall and let the ball skip right past him.

Tyler Colvin homered an inning later to make it 3-0.  Ryan Dempster ran into a bit of trouble in the 4th, allowing two runs, but the Reds never got the lead back despite a late homer by Ramon Hernandez which cut the lead to one.  Carlos Marmol saved the win, but Campana's clutch catch in the center field ivy (Sam Fuld-style) robbing Brandon Phillips of extra bases gets the real save.  A solid, solid victory.

On Saturday, the Cubs beat the Reds in blowout fashion.  Carlos Zambrano earned his ninth win of the season which could be his last win as a Cub.  Zambrano homered, Castro picked up four RBIs, and Carlos Pena picked up three in the 11-4 win.  On Sunday, Sean Marshall's midseason slump appeared to pack in one last stand as Marshall blew a one-run lead in the 8th, allowing the Reds to win 8-7.  The win snapped the Cubs' season-high seven-game winning streak.

Following the Monday rainout, the Cubs played the first of three against Chien-Ming Wang and the Nationals on Tuesday.  Wang stymied the Cubs offense, allowing hardly any baserunners and no runs while Matt Garza on the other side continued to receive the world's worst run support.  This one of Wang's first few starts in over two years, so the effort by the Cubs offense is pretty disappointing.  Golden boy Castro homered in the 8th, but the rest of the lineup stayed quiet in the 3-1 loss.

Batboy?  Nope, the dude in the middle is
the scrawny little Campana.

Homers by Reed Johnson, Geovany Soto, and Alfonso Soriano were enough to put away the Nats on Wednesday, thanks to a solid start by Rodrigo Lopez.  Although Lopez is just a short-term fix for this season's lack of rotation depth, it's good to see the Cubs be able to win with him on the mound.

Dempster again had great stuff in his Thursday start against the Reds, a 1-1 tie until homers by Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena made it 4-1.  A late rally nearly tied the game for the Reds, but a huge clutch performance by Carlos Marmol got the Cubs their third series win in a row and left them 9-2 in their last 11 home games.  Rick Ankiel hit an all-or-nothing blast to deep center that was caught near the warning track with the bases loaded and everything on the line with two outs in the 9th, giving the Cubs the win.

The phrase 'home cookin'' hasn't really applied to the Cubs this year or the last, but their 'road cookin'' in Pittsburgh carried over and kept on rolling back to Wrigley anyway.  This homestand just had a fun, positive feel to it which made it so fun to watch.  MVP honors goes to Dempster, who gave the Cubs everything in two very solid starts.  After the tough summer this has been for the Cubs and their fans, it's about time for some winning.  And according to Mike Quade, this could still be the year!

Crosstown Showdown: White Sox 4, Cubs 3

Alfonso Soriano steals his first base of the season,
beating the tag from shorstop Alexei Ramirez

Peavy returns from DL, wins despite ineffective start

CWS leads 2-1

It was yet another one-run loss for the Cubs, who have lost in this fashion in three of their last four losses.  A comeback attempt for the third straight game fell short and the Cubs dropped their second in a row.

The Sox got their first two runs off Doug Davis in the fourth when A.J. Pierzynski tripled home two runs.  The Sox also got a third run in the inning from a squeeze play by utility man Brent Lillibridge.  This play represents the Sox' best attempt to play smallball.  But the truth is that such a play wasn't even necessary in that situation, especially considering Lillibridge's knack for clutch plays this season.

A Starlin Castro RBI single put the Cubs on the board, but the Sox got an insurance run just a half-inning later thanks to an error by trippin' second baseman Blake DeWitt.  Of course, Davis could have prevented the run from scoring by not hitting Lillibridge with a pitch, but the bottom line is the inning should have already been over.

Incredibly, Carlos Pena hit his third homer in as many days, as if competing head-on with counterpart Paul Konerko, who actually didn't homer in this game to end his consecutive-game-with-homer streak at five.  Pena has gathered respect from all of his teammates as the calming influence as well as the defensive leader of this team, and it's great to see him catch fire offensively, too.

Jeff Baker redeemed himself for his big strikeout last night and singled home a run in the rally that knocked Peavy out of the game in the 6th.  Unlike the night before, the Cubs were very patient with Peavy, who had serious trouble locating his breaking pitches and gave Pierzynski a workout behind the plate.  His slider was all over the place, including bouncing in the dirt.  Much of Peavy's success in his career can be attributed to the fact that everything he throws, from his running fastball to his changeup to his slider, is hard, hard, and harder.  He's got a 'hot' heater and a power slider, a lethal and winning combination.  But when he loses control, everything kind of flies off the end.  The result: 104 pitches and 10 baserunners allowed through only 5.1 innings.

The Cubs bullpen was absolutely perfect on this night, throwing three innings and striking out four while allowing no baserunners between rookie Chris Carpenter, Jeff Samardzija, and Sean Marshall.  Unfortunately, the Sox bullpen almost equally as good.  Sox closer Sergio Santos has a save in each of the last two games; he has thrown a total of 26 pitches between the two games, including only three balls, no baserunners, and five strikeouts.  This, this is the definition of dominance out of the 'pen.

Overall, this was a very entertaining series, with intriguing battles between the first basemen and Ozzie Guillen and Geovany Soto's catcher's mask.  The Cubs lost two of three but now head to Kansas City for a weekend series against the Royals who are only one game better than the Cubs record-wise.  They're also only 20-21 at Kauffman Stadium and have the bottom end of their starting rotation going, so the Cubs could capitalize.  After all, the Cubs will finally be playing someone at their own level.


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1st Half In Review

For the Chicago Cubs, the first half of the 2010 baseball season has been about as disappointing as a half for any team this season.  Coming into the season with high hopes of regaining form of spectacular play in the regular season of 2008 with new ownership and a new attitude, it became clear early on that the 2010 Cubs would struggle to score runs.  This was quite evident in the entire first half and the 7-0 shutout loss to Vicente Padilla and the Dodgers summed it up frustratingly.

After exciting runs for and in the playoffs in 2003 and 2004, the Cubs changed from being perennial cellar dwellers to a high profile team that looked to win every year no matter what.  The 2008 season was the high point for the Cubs on the field, a team that did so many things right fell to Los Angeles in the playoffs and joined past playoff futility.  The Cubs didn't perform to expectations at all in 2009, and many changes to the bullpen and the controversial signing of Milton Bradley while losing team pieces like Mark DeRosa and Jason Marquis were cited as the problems with the team.  However, as the Cubs have yet again struggled in 2010, they may go back to being baseball's 'Lovable Losers'.

Report Card:

Offense: D+
Defense: C+
Starting Pitching: A-
Bullpen: B
Coaching: B-

Overall Grade: C

The biggest struggle so far has to be scoring runs.  The Cubs have been just terrible scoring runs, ranking 13th in the NL in runs.  The Padres, yes, the Padres who play in enormous Petco Park and have Adrian Gonzalez for their only real home run threat have scored more.  The Cubs are 11th in walks, a category that was praised in 2008 when the Cubs' patience lead to a more efficient offense.  They are also 11th in OBP and BA.  They are tied for the least stolen bases in the NL with 34.  Looking up and down the roster, this is not a team made for smallball.  It is a team to get runners on and get them around using big doubles or homers.  So far, neither the runners nor the bop from the big boppers has arrived.  The defense, long a troubled category for the Cubs, is nothing special thing year except maybe the all out play of Marlon Byrd and the over/under on how many errors Starlin Castro can make in a week.  The pitching has become a real bright spot from the most unlikely places like Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, and Sean Marshall.  Lou Piniella has literally done all he can and now he just has to wait but you just have to question his ability to get through to the players.

The Cubs are stuffed with huge contracts and are severely overpaying more than a few on the roster.  From now until the Trade Deadline, look for the Cubs to try to unload at least one of these contracts whether they are in contention or not.  I think the first one to go will be Ted Lilly.  Lilly has become a fan favorite at Wrigley Field because of his old school yet effective pitching style.  And okay, his crazy adventures on the basepaths.  Ted has drawn interest from the Mets who would be able to take his salary and are looking for another arm to beef up for the stretch run.  While I don't think the Cubs will be able to get rid of all the big contracts they want to if the Cubs are bad, I wouldn't be surprised if Derrek Lee and/or Kosuke Fukudome go.  Fukudome has a ridiculous $14 million contract when a player with his stats doesn't even deserve a quarter of that.  Lee has been a fixture at first base for many years now on the North Side and had a comeback campaign in 2009 but hasn't recaptured the magic into this year, disappointing fans once again after his MVP-caliber season in 2005.

I think the Cubs will make a run.  Aramis Ramirez is back and healthy as he proved on the West Coast trip before the break.  He will be key in this run and it won't be anything crazy like the White Sox but the Cubs will play good ball on this homestand here and continue it on the road.  The starters can be relied upon for great starts and the bullpen can survive long enough not that they have everything figured out, including the playing time for impressive rookie Andrew Cashner.  The young kids that the Cubs are fielding in the minors and even the majors now like Castro and Cashner should provide reason to be excited.  Attendance at Wrigley Field has taken a surprising downturn but I think it will get higher with the continued weather of summer and a better home record by the Cubs.  With their blowout win Thursday night, I think they're headed in the right direction.

Final Prediction: 80-82

Road Trip Wrapup: Arizona, Los Angeles (NL)

Record: 4-3
Final Record: 39-50
Games Behind First: 9.5 GB

Aramis Ramirez got on his first hot streak of the year as the Cubs finished the trip with a winning record.  A sweep of Arizona meant the Cubs only needed one win in LA to make this a winning trip and they got that one win but none more, losing three of four to the Dodgers.  The offense woke up in the series, and the Cubs will be winning more ball games if they can swing the bat like they have recently.

The Arizona series had a different feel to it than most of the series this season.  It felt like the Cubs were in control and they usually had the lead.  Kosuke Fukudome hit a leadoff homer in the 1st, Starlin Castro hit a two-run triple in the 2nd, and Geovany Soto hit an RBI double in the 2nd to put the DBacks down 4-0 early.  Arizona made it a tight game at 4-2 and 5-3 but another Soto RBI double and a Mike Fontenot RBI single extended their lead.  The blow that put the game out of reach in the 9th was Alfonso Soriano's two-run homer.  Tom Gorzelanny was efficient enough for a win.  Diamondbacks pitcher Barry Enright made his Chase Field debut starting on Tuesday and began well but faded as the game progressed.  With a 1-0 lead in the 6th, he gave up homers to Fukudome (solo) and Ramirez (two-run).  A Kelly Johnson homer made it 3-2, but an RBI from Ryan Theriot and another two-run homer by Ramirez made it 6-2.  Sean Marshall gave up two to make it interesting but Carlos Marmol shut the door closing it out, striking out all five he faced.  Carlos Silva gave up two runs over six innings and earned the win.  In a 3-3 game Wednesday night, Starlin Castro hit a two-run single to take the lead in the 5th.  Another home run from Ramirez, this time a three-run jack, gave the Cubs a 8-3 lead in the 9th and they never looked back.  Ryan Dempster went five and struck out six to earn the win, beating Edwin Jackson who had also knocked in an RBI in this game.

The first game at Dodger Stadium Thursday night was reminiscent of games earlier in the season.  James Loney hit an RBI single in the first but Soriano homered in the second to tie it at one.  Geovany Soto hit an RBI single and that was all the Cubs could do as Randy Wells was left in the game late once again with a tiny lead.  The time bomb went off when All-Star Rafael Furcal mashed a two-run homer down the line in right to completely shift momentum and the lead just like that.  Jonathan Broxton picked up the save.  Ted Lilly didn't pitch well at all Friday and the Dodgers jumped on him early.  After getting a 1-0 lead he gave up a three-run homer to Russell Martin, his first homer in nearly two months.  He gave up RBIs to Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Casey Blake, and Andre Ethier again.  What seemed like a blowout at 7-2 wasn't as the Cubs came crawling back from a wild pitch, a sac fly, an RBI triple from Ramirez, and an RBI single by the All-Star Marlon Byrd.  The Cubs couldn't finish though and lost 9-7. On national TV Saturday, the Cubs put on a show.  Soto gulfed a two-run homer in the 2nd and the Cubs put on the offense.  Aramis Ramirez hit another homer, his fourth of the trip, in the 7th.  John Ely was rocked for six runs over only two and a third innings, his fourth straight bad appearance at Dodger Stadium.  Tom Gorzelanny got the win as the Cubs took it 7-3.  In the series finale Sunday night on the ESPN, the Cubs were shut out in their last game before the break.  Vicente Padilla was on his game and threw eight shutout innings, including not allowing a hit until the 6th when Starlin Castro lined a leadoff double.  Ryan Theriot did the same in the next inning but didn't score.  The Dodgers jumped on Carlos Silva early, who was using too many breaking balls in this game and needed to get back to his hard sinker.  James Loney got a three-run homer in the first off him and the Dodgers got three more in the second.  Silva was ejected after Loney was called safe on a play at first base, and by the replay he was clearly out.  It was Silva's own fault because he didn't cover first base and Xavier Nady had to race to the bag to get the out.  It was the second close play already at first base and although the first one wasn't an out Silva was enraged and yelled in frustration.  He was tossed but was going to be taken out anyway by Lou Piniella.

The ESPN crew asked Piniella during a commercial break, a traditional questioning with the manager that takes place on Sunday Night Baseball, what the Cubs need to do to get back in the Central race.  "If we swing the bats, we're gonna be okay."  That was the line that stood out to me, and the way the Cubs swung those bats in this past week was certainly reason for excitement.  If they can do it like that consistently we will have no problem coming back to .500 like the Sox did.  With a big ten-game homestand coming up after the All-Star Break, the Cubs will need to score runs to beat the Phillies and Cardinals for sure and to avoid embarrassing losses to Houston.  They will also need to improve in one-run games where they are just 11-20.  I was really proud of the Cubbies during the Arizona series who showed some real fight.  I was impressed by their command of the game and I sense we will see more of this in the second half.  If there was ever a team to take out your frustrations on, make it Philly, easily my least favorite team in baseball.  Easily.  But now, Marlon Byrd heads to Anaheim for the All-Star Game and everyone else goes home.  According to a promo, the All-Star Game will be played on the beach right by Santa Monica Pier.  It won't really, but wouldn't that be interesting?  A sand diamond with the ocean the outfield 'wall'.  Ideas for the future....

Homestand Wrapup: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati

Record: 2-5
Final Record: 35-47
Games Behind First: 11.5 GB

Wrigley Field isn't an advantage for anything these days.  The Cubs' home record fell to 20-23 after a very poor homestand.  The Cubs should've won two of three against the Pirates and two of four against the Reds, but they can never beat the teams they're supposed to and also can't beat the teams better than them.  The evil Pirates who probably now have destroying the Cubs as their only achievement this season, came to Wrigley Monday night.  Alfonso Soriano hit a home run for the Cubs only scoring, and Jose Tabata hit a go-ahead double in the top of the 9th to win it 2-1.  Soriano went deep two more times the next day but the Cubs only managed three runs.  Luckily, Ted Lilly was on his game and the Cubs snuck out a 3-1 win.  Wednesday was a game we would've had if it wasn't our defense failing us for the millionth time.  This time it was Aramis Ramirez in the top of the 8th, after a pitching duel between Tom Gorzelanny and Brad Lincoln in a 0-0 game.  An error putting on Andy LaRoche haunted the Cubs after Garrett Jones doubled to center to score him and later Sean Marshall walked in a run.  2-0.

The Cincinnati Reds came to town feeling pretty confident.  Behind the young superstars Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Mike Leake and Drew Stubbs as well as the veterans Orlando Cabrera, Scott Rolen, and Bronson Arroyo, they were in first place heading into this series.  Soriano said before the series, "If we lose three, it could get ugly."  It's going to get ugly now, as the Cubs only put up a fight in two of the games and only won one.  On Thursday Tyler Colvin hit a clutch two-run single in the 8th to tie the game at two, but Drew Stubbs knocked in the go-ahead run in the 10th and the Reds won it in extras.  The Reds also won Saturday, 12-0 and for the Cubs there was literally nothing to report.  Brian Schlitter gave up five.  Yay.  Soriano hit an RBI single and Geovany Soto hit a two-run double in a three-run sixth in a 3-1 win Saturday, with Randy Wells pitching maybe his best game of the year.  It's been a struggle for the guy this season, so it was nice to see him pitch well and against a good team.  There were nine homers hit on Sunday.  Nine!  The Cubs' two were both from impressive Tyler Colvin, but the Cubs were blown out badly 14-3 from the Reds homers by Jonny Gomes, Paul Janish, Corky Miller, Brandon Phillips, Drew Stubbs, Drew Stubbs, and Drew Stubbs.  Stubbs surprisingly hit three homers although he is not necessarily known for his power.

Because of my busy week the last week, I didn't watch an out in a game of this homestand.  The week long drought was the longest since I became a Cubs fan on a day-to-day basis in mid 2006.  If you have something else to do with your spare time, right now I suggest you do so.  Watching this stuff is depressing.  Monday's game was promising in Arizona, but that doesn't mean anything anymore.  The problem I have with this team is that there are no strong spots.  We are bad against lefties, bad against righties.  Bad at home, bad on the road.  Bad in April, bad in May, bad in June, bad in July.  We aren't constantly getting swept and then sweeping other teams, but rather we are consistently bad against all.  We lose so many series that you wonder if there is ever a bright spot for this team.  I would feel that we are much stronger if we were streaky and won five in a row to lose five in a row right after because there is a good chance that sometime they could continue the winning formula over the rest of the season.  But no, this year we are just boring and losing.

Road Trip Wrapup: Pittsburgh, Houston, Milwaukee

Final Record: 27-33
Trip Record: 3-6
Games Behind First: 7.5

It could be a long summer for these Cubs.  The Cubs, who can't live up to winning expectations, haven't been able to beat even the bad teams the last two years.  This road trip should have swung momentum in the opposite way it actually did, and with a 6-3 or 7-2 record the Cubs would be pumped to play the Sox to resume the interleague dockett.  But here we are again, asking questions about how guys like Felipe Paulino can overwhelm the Cubs offense for the majority of a game. 

The first two games in Pittsburgh were frustrating, but the way the Cubs played gave me an indication that they brought the winning attitude with their luggage this time.  The lead on Monday, May 31 slipped off a rare bad outing by Sean Marshall, including a Garrett Jones homer.  Hopefully Cub fans had something nice to do on this Memorial Day than allow themselves get stressed by this loss.  The next one, however, on the next night, was nothing short of heartbreaking for me.  It was one of the hardest losses to take this year, because of how fundamentally well the Cubs had been playing all evening.  Like mentioned in an earlier post, it was Neil Walker who drove the Ted Lilly pitch out for a huge go-ahead homer in the bottom of the 8th, and before the Cubs could react it was game over.  The next game was postponed, but on Monday the next week Carlos Silva squeaked out a quiet 6-1 win.

The Houston series was pathetic.  I don't care to recap Friday except that Felipe Paulino 'dealing.'  The Astros plastered together three runs, and that's it.  Aramis Ramirez and Tyler Colvin both homered Saturday night and the Cubs responded well pouring on eight runs.  Ryan Dempster went a strong 6.1 IP with 7 K, which made me think we were going to turn it around on the trip.  But no, as Carlos Lee hit a two-run homer in a three run first inning off Randy Wells on Sunday.  The Cubs left town having lost two of three. 

After playing the makeup game Monday in Pittsburgh, the Cubs headed to Miller Park where they are already 3-0 in 2010.  Two of the three games there were Pittsburgh-esque heartbreaking, as the Cubs fell in the opener because of a two blown leads in as many innings.  There were no runs until a Cubs rally in the 8th, but a Corey Hart homer gave that lead away on one pitch.  In the ninth, the Cubs put up another run only to put men on and Carlos Marmol surrended a go-ahead, walk off two run single to Casey McGehee.  ESPN carried Wednesday's game, and the inconsitent Cubs offense put up nine including five homers coming from three hitters.  The 9-4 win set the stage for a disaster Thursday.  Xavier Nady hit a two-run homer earlier in the game, but blew it anyway in the bottom of the 10th.  In a 4-4 game, Craig Counsell sacrificed Carlos Gomez to second with none out, but Gomez just kept going all the way to third.  Nady made a dumb throw, a very ill-advised action in youth baseball, and the throw got away, scoring Gomez and ending the game.  The whole thing happened so fast, it was unbelievable.  Here's my question: Nady was at first because Derrek Lee had the day off.  Understandable.  But the fact that Lee is a three-time gold glover who hates days off and was ready to go merits the question of why wasn't Lee, in a big extra inning game, inserted for defensive purposes over a perennial DH in Nady?

The Cubs really screwed up this time.  They played great baseball in seven of nine games, and easily could have won those seven.  If the Cubs can't beat these teams, then who can they?

Welcome to the Doghouse

John Grabow and Esmailin Caridad are the first to enter my doghouse on the Cubs.  The Cubs returned from their six game road trip to begin the season with a 2-4 record, although that mark should be 5-1.  On Wednesday in Atlanta, Grabow prevented the Cubs from getting their first win by allowing a two-run, go-ahead homer to Chipper Jones.  Just two nights later Drew Stubbs destroyed Caridad's offering into center field to blow the 3-1 lead.  Another two nights and another blown effort by the Cubs.  This time it was Grabow again, with the help of Alfonso Soriano.  In the 7th with Tom Gorzelanny still pitching, Soriano messed up a routine catch like no one else could and this resulted in the bases loaded with one out.  Miguel Cairo then singled off Sean Marshall to drive in a run, but the tied score didn't last long.  An inning later in the 8th, John Grabow loaded the bases, and Esmailin Caridad walked Ramon Hernandez to walk in a run.  After a Jonny Gomes sac fly, the Cubs were left staring at the scoreboard in disbelief for the third time in five games.

I don't see what has happened with Grabow and Caridad.  I really hope this is something they get over, but the Cubs offense wasn't playing too well on the road trip and the starters were just doing a fantastic job (exception: Carlos Zambrano).  For any of that to matter, the bullpen needs to do their job even if they don't get the big thanks for it.  As we saw, the Cubs were unable to do that.  I haven't seen a stretch like that for the Cubs ever, where the bullpen blows it three out of five nights in the 7th or later.  Hopefully I won't see that again.

I had confidence in this bullpen heading into the season.  Actually, I still do.  This was just a wake up call, and it should stay that way to all Cub fans.  The bullpen is young, and young instability is not really a problem the Cubs have had to deal with in the last few years.  Thankfully, we are young now but we need to be able to hand the ball to someone who can get outs.  This is not easy with young guys.  One night, Caridad might be firing fastballs past everyone, and the next night he's serving up meat balls obliterated all around the park.  Marmol could strike out the side, or he could walk the bases loaded and force in runs.  The main idea with all of this is that not too much should be expected from the bullpen, although there is plenty of upside.

Cubs Positional Breakdown: Bullpen

This bullpen was very shaky out of the gate in 2009 when most of the effective relievers on the 2008 squad were replaced, for reasons unknown.  However, the cumulative ERA went down as the season went on, and this tight group looks to become the best bullpen in the division.  With a year of experience under their belts, they start the 2010 season ready to go.

Closer: Carlos Marmol, RHP
Marmol is really a one-of-a-kind pitcher.  He is the definition of unhittable, allowing only a ridiculous 43 hits in 74 innings (or 5.23 H/9, the second-best rating among full season pitchers behind Jonathan Broxton).  However, his problem is definitely the walks and sometimes lack of control.  His slider is one of the best in baseball, but you see too many nights were it is consistently breaking too much into the dirt on every pitch.  This will draw the strikeouts (93 in those 74 innings), but more and more hitters are figuring out to just not swing until they have two strikes on them.  Marmol's walks rose from 41 to 65, causing a few red flags coming into this season for his first full season as closer, although he was perfect in opportunities after taking over for Kevin Gregg last year.

Setup 1: Esmailin Caridad, RHP
A little known reliever out of the Cubs system, Caridad wasn't billed up to be much.  His velocity was good but not excellent, his breaking stuff was good but a little inconsistent, but overall he just seemed like a solid guy who could get outs.  Caridad is already being given a shot at the setup spot after just one season with only 19.1 IP career in the major leagues.  He did hold a handsome 1.40 ERA and struck out 17 in that time, so I can see why the Cubs made this move.  I like this guy, but like all Cub fans, have not seen enough to really give a report yet.  We'll see how he does in his second big trial.

Setup 2: John Grabow, LHP
A crucial left-handed part to the pen is filled by Grabow, who's durable, ground ball style of pitching kept opponents at bay for the last two years with the Pittsburgh Pirates, which have easily been his best years.  In limited action during the second half of 2009, he showed no signs of stopping.  Grabow pitched in 75 games total and doesn't have much of an injury history, so he should be a lock for success out of the Wrigley left-field line.

Middle Relief: Sean Marshall, LHP*
Although he fit the bill better in 2008, Marshall continued to be a consistent, durable presence in 2009.  His ERA rose a bit to 4.32, but cut down on home runs and actually threw one of just three complete games by a Cubs pitcher last year.  Besides that, though, he was inconsistent and not dependable in rotation, which is why after nine starts he was moved back to the bullpen in favor of young Randy Wells.  Although he aims for a spot in the rotation for 2010, I believe he was much better suited in the bullpen.

Middle Relief: Carlos Silva, RHP*
Not much should be expected from the big righty this season, but he could be somewhat effective in the right role.  Silva was a huge disappointment to the Mariners after they gave him an overpaid $48 million contract to be a starter.  Silva's best season has been just 14-8 with the Twins, so it was a bad idea to expect him to be an ace.  Sure enough, here we are in Year 3 of the deal and Silva has been terrible.  We'll see what he can give us in 2010.

Middle Relief (Injury Permitting): Angel Guzman, RHP

Guzman was a pleasant surprise in a bullpen with many question marks the first half of 2009.  Keeping his ERA well below 3 most of the season and finishing at 2.95, he was the sturdy factor that anchored the Cubs and kept them in many games until things got figured out.  He performed exceedingly well during his eventual transition from middle relief to setup, although his work went much unappreciated thanks to 8 blown saves by a certain Gregg.  With Marmol coming in in the 9th now, however, Guzman should be setup to be the best setup man of the division in 2010, unless his injury bug catches back up to him.  He could be out for the season.

Middle Relief: Justin Berg, RHP

Yet another product of the Cubs system, this guy appears to have won a shot at the pen.  Like Caridad, Berg was impressive in his 12 inning debut year.  Berg has the poise of a man beyond his age.  Adjustments will need to be made for both guys as hitters catch up, but the new, surprisingly young Cubs bullpen has all kind of characters in it.  Berg will certainly do better than the old Aaron Heilman of 2009, who I must say good riddance to.  I don't have much on Berg either except for his minor league success, so watch this guy as well.  Watch for him in the 5th, 6th, or 7th innings of ballgames.

Middle Relief: Jeff Gray, RHP
Acquired from Oakland for Aaron Miles and Jake Fox, I really like this guy.  He can turn up the heat on the fastball or fool hitters with great breaking pitches.  He walked only four in 26.2 innings last year which will make the Cubs an even more control-focused team, which they already are.  He is relatively young at 29, yet has a lot of baseball under his belt which is a big key to the bullpen, where we have a few upcoming rookies and some veterans.  Gray will be a nice bridge in between.

Others: Jeff Samardzija*, Justin Berg, Mike Parisi, and Mitch Atkins are the main other candidates.  Samardzija, in case you haven't heard a million times, is a former WR at Notre Dame, but chose baseball instead.  Jeff hasn't brought all of his game from the minors to the majors yet, but this could be the year.  Given a crack at starting two games in 2009, he didn't perform as Cubs coaches would have liked.  I think he deserves a shot over Marshall, Silva, and possibly Gorzelanny for the 5th spot in the rotation, but the depth there is good enough for nice protection.  Berg was brought up for 12 innings in 2009, and although he pitched well, that wasn't a big enough sample to see how he will perform over an extended period of time.  He needs some more seasoning to train his skills.  Parisi was a Rule 5 pick from the Cardinals, which means he must stay on the major league roster for the whole season or else he must be sacrificed back to St. Louis.  I don't know much about this guy, but he will probably be used in the low risk roles that David Patton was used in last year.  Atkins is new to me as well, but pitched to an impressive 17-7 in 28 starts between AA and AAA.

The Pen looks to be in good shape for 2010, although a big hinge here is Guzman's health.  He has been in the organization for over 10 years now, but because of injuries he didn't make an impact over a full season until last year.  Marmol is an interesting choice as closer but needs to watch out for the walks.  Also, there are a few variables like Gorzelanny, Berg, Atkins, Samardzija, and Silva.  How they pitch could decide the Cubs' fate at the end of ballgames.

*in consideration to start also. 

Cubs Positional Breakdown: Starting Rotation

This area of the Cubs, fortunately, is a big strength. However, it's safe to say the Cubs' rotation underperformed in 2009.

#1: Carlos Zambrano, although he lowered his ERA for the second straight year, finished with a mediocre 9-7 record in 28 starts, signaling his first full season as a starter in which he finished with less than 13 wins. He did show promise right near the end of the season, however, including a two-hit shutout in San Francisco. The difference-maker for the hot and cold Zambrano in 2010 will be his dedication to keeping himself in shape and focus on what he needs to do to compete at the highest level, like frustrated Cub fans have seen flashes of. The dominant Zambrano could win 20 games and a Cy Young, or the other Zambrano can continue to do what he has been doing.

#2: Ryan Dempster also took a step back seeing his win total drop by six to 11. His ERA rose, although he did log his second 200-inning campaign. Dempster is a very good starter still with a live fastball and sneaky slider to go with his changeup, allowing him to get out of high pressure situations. Dempster is a positive clubhouse influence with his practical jokes and Harry Carey impersonations. Expect a bounceback year with more run support (part of the problem in 2009). 15 wins is a reasonable estimate.

#3: There are a few question marks with Ted Lilly's shoulder surgery, but it could form to be a nice audition spot for a few starts to see who deserves the #5 spot for the rest of the season. Lilly shook things up himself though, when today he announced his goal for full recovery is Opening Day. "I don't know what the date is," Lilly said Wednesday. "I'd like to be ready when all the other healthy guys are. That would be good for me. If I can't, I'll be disappointed. I have to understand that sometimes you take one step back to gain a couple forward. The whole idea is to not only come back as soon as possible and be out there contributing but be productive, too." Lilly, if healthy, will give a strong year like he has for all three of his years with the Cubs. His 44-26 record with the Cubs contains the most wins of any Cubs pitcher during that time period.

#4: Randy Wells was the biggest surprise without a doubt. A little-known rookie coming from AAA Iowa in early May to fill in for an injured starter, he became one of the most important cogs in the pitching by summer. It took a while to get a first win because of run support (see: Ryan Dempster), but he wrapped up consistent play all around for a 3.05 ERA. Another double-digit win season can be expected from Wells.

#5: Here is where things get interesting. The Cubs have a bunch of mediocre, #5 type starters, so Spring Training will tell who breaks camp with the job. Newcomer Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, and Jeff Samardzija all eye the spot. Silva would best be used from middle relief before starting, judging from his 5-18 record from two years in Seattle, making just 34 starts. Marshall has earned the spot before and didn't perform great, so many were pleased when he performed very effectively in various bullpen roles (not closer). Gorzelanny turned heads in 2007 going 14-10 with a 3.88 ERA, but has changed much since. He showed flashes of starting well with the Cubs, but still ended up with an ERA over five. Samardzija has started only two career games and was bashed in both, but his relief efforts and training have changed some minds within the Cubs organization. My verdict: Jeff Samardzija wins the job. He has the most upside here. Marshall was most effective in his bullpen role and should stay there, Silva is a mess and should be eased into an easy job to see if he can pitch at all, and Gorzelanny will be the backup (#5A) if Samardzija is overwhelmed again.

Overall Grade: A-
I gave them a minus because of the instability in the #5 spot and also the indentity theft risk of Carlos Zambrano. This would appear to be the year for him, but we just don't know. The run support that these guys had to work with was ridiculous considering the Cubs lineup. There is a 0% chance it will be that bad again. Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, and Wells are all capable of 15 win seasons in 2010. In fact, that is more likely than not. The #5 spot is kind of up in the air, I don't see what we can get from it. Those nights with the bases loaded and two outs might make us miss Rich Harden to just get a fastball high to strike 'em out, but besides that it appears Randy Wells has taken his spot effectively. The rotation will be back in 2010, watch out.