Is Matt Garza Worth It?

Ben Nicholson-Smith of mlbtr.com reports that GM Jim Hendry is trying very hard for Matt Garza in a deal that would send Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Chris Archer, and Brandon Guyer.  Garza is 42-44 in his career with a 3.97 career ERA, playing his career with the Twins and Rays.  He is 27 and has pitched 592.1 innings over the last three years, including at least 200 in the last two.  Garza will be an innings eater no matter where he goes but could become even better with the possible move to the National League, especially moving out of the powerful AL East.  There's no doubt that he is a great pitcher and could win 15 games, and is exactly the kind of guy the Cubs need, but he comes at a high price.

As I said yesterday about a possible trade for B.J. Upton, Chris Archer is the top pitching prospect in the Cubs organization.  If we are able to get Garza, Archer could be a guy we no longer need.  Hak-Ju Lee, a man I called the Korean Jose Reyes before the 2010 season, has fantastic speed and has shown it over the last two seasons.  He is the guy I would be most concerned about parting with; he could be a breakout player down the road.  But the fact is that the Rays have Reid Brignac at shortstop after trading away Jason Bartlett, and Brignac will never be a starting infielder in his career.  Lee is the speed that the Cubs need in the future, and trading him would add a lot of risk that he would burn us and become a star.  Guyer ripped through AA ball hitting a ridiculous .344 with 13 homers and 58 RBI in 102 games.  Guyer plays all three outfield positions, but that doesn't necessarily help his chances of making the Major League version of the Cubs.  He also stole 30 bases in 2010 and is a future 20/20 talent in the Majors.  But the Cubs have Tyler Colvin, Marlon Byrd, Alfonso Soriano, and Kosuke Fukudome in the outfield rotation and the Cubs would not want Guyer sitting on the bench playing every once in a while.  None of those four outfielders appear to be going anywhere soon, so Guyer is out of luck.  He's like Tyler Colvin, but with a lot of speed.  I think the Cubs would love to have him, but there's not room so he should be traded.  Chirinos isn't a youngster anymore at 27, an average hitting catcher who isn't anything special.  The Cubs don't have a necessity for him.

To the Cubs:
SP Matt Garza

To the Rays:
SP Chris Archer
SS Hak-Ju Lee
OF Brandon Guyer
C Robinson Chirinos

The Verdict: Pull the trigger.  If the Cubs acquire Matt Garza, this should be a winning season and the NL Central should be weak in 2011, giving the Cubs a shot at the division title.  Garza would give the Cubs a rotation of Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells, and Tom Gorzelanny or Carlos Silva.  An adequate rotation, to say the least.  Just reading that rotation is exciting!  Let's hope Hendry figures it out.

Homestand Wrapup: Philadelphia, Houston, St. Louis

Record: 6-4

Final Record: 45-54

Games Behind First: 10 GB

The Cubs caught fire on this homestand.  The record may not show it, but the Cubs really started to put everything together in this week of 10 home games, the longest homestand of the year.  With two of the three teams in playoff contention for the past few years, the Cubs would be put to the test.  Ironically, they went 5-2 against those two teams but struggled against the 5th place Houston Astros.

The Phillies came to town after the All-Star Break pretty beaten up.  They're missing Chase Utley, their All-Star 2B, Placido Polanco, Jamie Moyer, whose future in baseball is now in question at 47 years old, and they're also missing consistent production from 38 year old Raul Ibanez.  The Phillies were falling behind the Atlanta Braves and were just trying to hang on until their stars return which will permit them to make a run at it.  Starlin Castro was credited with a steal of home on what should have been a wild pitch to give the Cubs a 3-2 lead Thursday night, and they never looked back.  Homers by Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, and Geovany Soto and two two-run doubles by Aramis Ramirez allowed the Cubs to cruise to a 12-6 victory despite the unreliable Bob Howry giving up four in the ninth.  He gave up two RBI singles and then a two-run homer to Ryan Howard, his second such homer of the night.  Ramirez, already on a hot streak at the time, came up in the clutch Friday.  Trailing 3-1 in the 6th, Marlon Byrd hit a two-run homer to tie the game and then two innings later Ramirez gave the Cubs the lead with a homer of his own.  The Cubs once again overcame a homer by Howard to win.  Saturday had the kind of game that you can't lose when you are a team trying to get back in the race but down a whole bunch of games.  Excitingly scoring in a scoreless ballgame was Starlin Castro in the 7th and the Cubs looked for a shutout.  Carlos Marmol was brought on for the save and the wrong Marmol showed up that day.  He beat himself rather than letting the Phillies beat him allowing five walks to just one hit in only two thirds of an inning.  Four runs came around and just like that Brad Lidge shut the door in a very frustrating loss.  Moving onto Sunday night the Cubs knew a win would be tough off Roy Halladay.  However, the Cubs impressively jumped on him supporting Tom Gorzelanny with a homer from Soto in the second, a four-run inning.  Later, Soriano homered to drive in two including himself.  The Phillies made it 6-3, but a five-run 7th opened the game wide open.  Halladay went just six innings, an unusual low for the veteran, as the Cubs took three of four from Philly.

The Astros aren't having a season to remember.  Filled with a few overpaid veteran contracts with guys past their prime and minor leaguers with little talent rushed to the bigs, the Houston franchise is pretty out of sorts right now.  Years of neglect to develop talent in the minors is hurting them badly as the franchise is in 5th place.  The Cubs really wanted a series win against a poor team like this.  Carlos Silva struggled badly in the 1st Inning of the game Monday night, allowing five in his only inning pitched.  Jason Castro hit a three-run homer in the 3rd, his 2nd career homer and that gave the Astros an unbelievable 8-0 lead. Soon enough, however, the Cubs offense started to piece together a rally.  Two runs had already scored for the Cubs in the game when Tyler Colvin hit a solo shot, followed by Aramis Ramirez launching a two-run homer that really was amazing in the moment because the Cubs offense didn't usually fight back like they did Monday.  Four runs put the game out of reach including a homer from Chris Johnson, his first Major League homer.  Tuesday night the writer witnessed the best home game for the Cubs all season.  The Astros, in their red alternate road uniforms like always, got another early lead this time for six runs.  Ramirez hit a solo homer to chip into the lead that looked somewhat meaningless at the time.  Chris Johnson hit another homer, his second in as many days, and that negated Ramirez's cut into the lead.  Wesley Wright, making his first career start for Houston, really ran into trouble in the 5th.  A passed ball after a strikeout of Xavier Nady brought in a run, and then a Starlin Castro RBI groundout, and then another homer for Ramirez, this time a three-run homer.  Just like that, it became a 7-6 game.  The Cubs took advantage of their momentum now with Geovany Soto hitting a huge tater to center over the Batters Eye lounge (447 feet!) to tie it up.  But the Cubs weren't done yet.  Derrek Lee picked up three RBI over the next two innings and Alfonso Soriano added an RBI single, and that set the stage for history.  Coming up with a 11-7 lead, Aramis Ramirez batted with two on and an excited crowd backing him for what would happen next.  Another fly ball went zooming into the night, and Ramirez incredibly got his third homer of the night!  He is the first Cub to do that since Alfonso Soriano did it in Cincinnati in 2008 after he did it in Atlanta in 2007.  Ryan Dempster joked after the game about not getting the win despite watching his team score 14.  For the finale the Cubs became frustrating again because they were not able to get a hit when they needed to.  Tied at 1 almost the entire game, the Cubs put runners on base in the bottom of the 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th including multiple runners in all except the 10th.  If they had scored in any of the first three innings mentioned, it's game over.  But no, the Cubs did like they always do and they let the other team just sit and hang around until they come back and beat you.  Interestingly Soto hit a two-run homer in the 12th but it was too late and the Cubs lost by one.

A frustrating series loss to Houston gave the Cubs an off day to stew in their anger before the rival Cardinals came to town.  These games would prove to be crucial with the Cubs chasing them in the division, down by 11 games at the start of the series.  On Friday afternoon, Randy Wells gave the Cubs pure greatness forgetting his catastrophic start his last time against the Cardinals.  He allowed hits to the first five batters and didn't record an out back in May.  Wells went seven shutout innings to earn the win supported by homers from Colvin, Soto, and Soriano all of whom appeared pretty hot this homestand.  Colvin hit another leadoff homer on Saturday, pretending to be Soriano, but the lead didn't last long.  Tyler Greene singled in two runs, but that lead didn't last long either.  Starlin Castro hit his first Wrigley Field homer to give the Cubs the lead again 3-2.  A critical wild pitch in the 5th with a ball that was thrown away proved extremely important as the 6-3 lead would prove necessary as the Cardinals crawled their way back to 6-5 in the 8th.  The Cubs pulled out the nail biter however, Carlos Marmol picking up the save.  If the Cubs could sweep Sunday night on ESPN then they would be just eight games back of the Cardinals.  After an early 2-0 lead for St. Louis, the Cubs came back with rallies in the 4th and 5th.  Albert Pujols homered in the 6th to tie it, locking up the score for extra innings.  Again the Cubs wasted opportunities and Felipe Lopez burned them with a go-ahead homer in the 11th for the win.

The Cubs could have easily been 9-1 on this homestand.  The only game where they were truly beat was the one on Monday night against the Astros, and even then they put up a great fight.  But little issues like Carlos Marmol on Saturday and offense hitting with runners in scoring position didn't allow the Cubs to make as much progress as they would have liked.  As I said before, the Cubs to are looking better and beginning to put things together but the Astros series this week in Houston certainly isn't promising.  They'll be put to the test against a good team in the Rockies this weekend at Coors Field, where the Cubs are 38-36 all-time.

1st Half In Review

For the Chicago Cubs, the first half of the 2010 baseball season has been about as disappointing as a half for any team this season.  Coming into the season with high hopes of regaining form of spectacular play in the regular season of 2008 with new ownership and a new attitude, it became clear early on that the 2010 Cubs would struggle to score runs.  This was quite evident in the entire first half and the 7-0 shutout loss to Vicente Padilla and the Dodgers summed it up frustratingly.

After exciting runs for and in the playoffs in 2003 and 2004, the Cubs changed from being perennial cellar dwellers to a high profile team that looked to win every year no matter what.  The 2008 season was the high point for the Cubs on the field, a team that did so many things right fell to Los Angeles in the playoffs and joined past playoff futility.  The Cubs didn't perform to expectations at all in 2009, and many changes to the bullpen and the controversial signing of Milton Bradley while losing team pieces like Mark DeRosa and Jason Marquis were cited as the problems with the team.  However, as the Cubs have yet again struggled in 2010, they may go back to being baseball's 'Lovable Losers'.

Report Card:

Offense: D+
Defense: C+
Starting Pitching: A-
Bullpen: B
Coaching: B-

Overall Grade: C

The biggest struggle so far has to be scoring runs.  The Cubs have been just terrible scoring runs, ranking 13th in the NL in runs.  The Padres, yes, the Padres who play in enormous Petco Park and have Adrian Gonzalez for their only real home run threat have scored more.  The Cubs are 11th in walks, a category that was praised in 2008 when the Cubs' patience lead to a more efficient offense.  They are also 11th in OBP and BA.  They are tied for the least stolen bases in the NL with 34.  Looking up and down the roster, this is not a team made for smallball.  It is a team to get runners on and get them around using big doubles or homers.  So far, neither the runners nor the bop from the big boppers has arrived.  The defense, long a troubled category for the Cubs, is nothing special thing year except maybe the all out play of Marlon Byrd and the over/under on how many errors Starlin Castro can make in a week.  The pitching has become a real bright spot from the most unlikely places like Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, and Sean Marshall.  Lou Piniella has literally done all he can and now he just has to wait but you just have to question his ability to get through to the players.

The Cubs are stuffed with huge contracts and are severely overpaying more than a few on the roster.  From now until the Trade Deadline, look for the Cubs to try to unload at least one of these contracts whether they are in contention or not.  I think the first one to go will be Ted Lilly.  Lilly has become a fan favorite at Wrigley Field because of his old school yet effective pitching style.  And okay, his crazy adventures on the basepaths.  Ted has drawn interest from the Mets who would be able to take his salary and are looking for another arm to beef up for the stretch run.  While I don't think the Cubs will be able to get rid of all the big contracts they want to if the Cubs are bad, I wouldn't be surprised if Derrek Lee and/or Kosuke Fukudome go.  Fukudome has a ridiculous $14 million contract when a player with his stats doesn't even deserve a quarter of that.  Lee has been a fixture at first base for many years now on the North Side and had a comeback campaign in 2009 but hasn't recaptured the magic into this year, disappointing fans once again after his MVP-caliber season in 2005.

I think the Cubs will make a run.  Aramis Ramirez is back and healthy as he proved on the West Coast trip before the break.  He will be key in this run and it won't be anything crazy like the White Sox but the Cubs will play good ball on this homestand here and continue it on the road.  The starters can be relied upon for great starts and the bullpen can survive long enough not that they have everything figured out, including the playing time for impressive rookie Andrew Cashner.  The young kids that the Cubs are fielding in the minors and even the majors now like Castro and Cashner should provide reason to be excited.  Attendance at Wrigley Field has taken a surprising downturn but I think it will get higher with the continued weather of summer and a better home record by the Cubs.  With their blowout win Thursday night, I think they're headed in the right direction.

Final Prediction: 80-82

Road Trip Wrapup: Arizona, Los Angeles (NL)

Record: 4-3
Final Record: 39-50
Games Behind First: 9.5 GB

Aramis Ramirez got on his first hot streak of the year as the Cubs finished the trip with a winning record.  A sweep of Arizona meant the Cubs only needed one win in LA to make this a winning trip and they got that one win but none more, losing three of four to the Dodgers.  The offense woke up in the series, and the Cubs will be winning more ball games if they can swing the bat like they have recently.

The Arizona series had a different feel to it than most of the series this season.  It felt like the Cubs were in control and they usually had the lead.  Kosuke Fukudome hit a leadoff homer in the 1st, Starlin Castro hit a two-run triple in the 2nd, and Geovany Soto hit an RBI double in the 2nd to put the DBacks down 4-0 early.  Arizona made it a tight game at 4-2 and 5-3 but another Soto RBI double and a Mike Fontenot RBI single extended their lead.  The blow that put the game out of reach in the 9th was Alfonso Soriano's two-run homer.  Tom Gorzelanny was efficient enough for a win.  Diamondbacks pitcher Barry Enright made his Chase Field debut starting on Tuesday and began well but faded as the game progressed.  With a 1-0 lead in the 6th, he gave up homers to Fukudome (solo) and Ramirez (two-run).  A Kelly Johnson homer made it 3-2, but an RBI from Ryan Theriot and another two-run homer by Ramirez made it 6-2.  Sean Marshall gave up two to make it interesting but Carlos Marmol shut the door closing it out, striking out all five he faced.  Carlos Silva gave up two runs over six innings and earned the win.  In a 3-3 game Wednesday night, Starlin Castro hit a two-run single to take the lead in the 5th.  Another home run from Ramirez, this time a three-run jack, gave the Cubs a 8-3 lead in the 9th and they never looked back.  Ryan Dempster went five and struck out six to earn the win, beating Edwin Jackson who had also knocked in an RBI in this game.

The first game at Dodger Stadium Thursday night was reminiscent of games earlier in the season.  James Loney hit an RBI single in the first but Soriano homered in the second to tie it at one.  Geovany Soto hit an RBI single and that was all the Cubs could do as Randy Wells was left in the game late once again with a tiny lead.  The time bomb went off when All-Star Rafael Furcal mashed a two-run homer down the line in right to completely shift momentum and the lead just like that.  Jonathan Broxton picked up the save.  Ted Lilly didn't pitch well at all Friday and the Dodgers jumped on him early.  After getting a 1-0 lead he gave up a three-run homer to Russell Martin, his first homer in nearly two months.  He gave up RBIs to Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Casey Blake, and Andre Ethier again.  What seemed like a blowout at 7-2 wasn't as the Cubs came crawling back from a wild pitch, a sac fly, an RBI triple from Ramirez, and an RBI single by the All-Star Marlon Byrd.  The Cubs couldn't finish though and lost 9-7. On national TV Saturday, the Cubs put on a show.  Soto gulfed a two-run homer in the 2nd and the Cubs put on the offense.  Aramis Ramirez hit another homer, his fourth of the trip, in the 7th.  John Ely was rocked for six runs over only two and a third innings, his fourth straight bad appearance at Dodger Stadium.  Tom Gorzelanny got the win as the Cubs took it 7-3.  In the series finale Sunday night on the ESPN, the Cubs were shut out in their last game before the break.  Vicente Padilla was on his game and threw eight shutout innings, including not allowing a hit until the 6th when Starlin Castro lined a leadoff double.  Ryan Theriot did the same in the next inning but didn't score.  The Dodgers jumped on Carlos Silva early, who was using too many breaking balls in this game and needed to get back to his hard sinker.  James Loney got a three-run homer in the first off him and the Dodgers got three more in the second.  Silva was ejected after Loney was called safe on a play at first base, and by the replay he was clearly out.  It was Silva's own fault because he didn't cover first base and Xavier Nady had to race to the bag to get the out.  It was the second close play already at first base and although the first one wasn't an out Silva was enraged and yelled in frustration.  He was tossed but was going to be taken out anyway by Lou Piniella.

The ESPN crew asked Piniella during a commercial break, a traditional questioning with the manager that takes place on Sunday Night Baseball, what the Cubs need to do to get back in the Central race.  "If we swing the bats, we're gonna be okay."  That was the line that stood out to me, and the way the Cubs swung those bats in this past week was certainly reason for excitement.  If they can do it like that consistently we will have no problem coming back to .500 like the Sox did.  With a big ten-game homestand coming up after the All-Star Break, the Cubs will need to score runs to beat the Phillies and Cardinals for sure and to avoid embarrassing losses to Houston.  They will also need to improve in one-run games where they are just 11-20.  I was really proud of the Cubbies during the Arizona series who showed some real fight.  I was impressed by their command of the game and I sense we will see more of this in the second half.  If there was ever a team to take out your frustrations on, make it Philly, easily my least favorite team in baseball.  Easily.  But now, Marlon Byrd heads to Anaheim for the All-Star Game and everyone else goes home.  According to a promo, the All-Star Game will be played on the beach right by Santa Monica Pier.  It won't really, but wouldn't that be interesting?  A sand diamond with the ocean the outfield 'wall'.  Ideas for the future....

Homestand Wrapup: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati

Record: 2-5
Final Record: 35-47
Games Behind First: 11.5 GB

Wrigley Field isn't an advantage for anything these days.  The Cubs' home record fell to 20-23 after a very poor homestand.  The Cubs should've won two of three against the Pirates and two of four against the Reds, but they can never beat the teams they're supposed to and also can't beat the teams better than them.  The evil Pirates who probably now have destroying the Cubs as their only achievement this season, came to Wrigley Monday night.  Alfonso Soriano hit a home run for the Cubs only scoring, and Jose Tabata hit a go-ahead double in the top of the 9th to win it 2-1.  Soriano went deep two more times the next day but the Cubs only managed three runs.  Luckily, Ted Lilly was on his game and the Cubs snuck out a 3-1 win.  Wednesday was a game we would've had if it wasn't our defense failing us for the millionth time.  This time it was Aramis Ramirez in the top of the 8th, after a pitching duel between Tom Gorzelanny and Brad Lincoln in a 0-0 game.  An error putting on Andy LaRoche haunted the Cubs after Garrett Jones doubled to center to score him and later Sean Marshall walked in a run.  2-0.

The Cincinnati Reds came to town feeling pretty confident.  Behind the young superstars Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Mike Leake and Drew Stubbs as well as the veterans Orlando Cabrera, Scott Rolen, and Bronson Arroyo, they were in first place heading into this series.  Soriano said before the series, "If we lose three, it could get ugly."  It's going to get ugly now, as the Cubs only put up a fight in two of the games and only won one.  On Thursday Tyler Colvin hit a clutch two-run single in the 8th to tie the game at two, but Drew Stubbs knocked in the go-ahead run in the 10th and the Reds won it in extras.  The Reds also won Saturday, 12-0 and for the Cubs there was literally nothing to report.  Brian Schlitter gave up five.  Yay.  Soriano hit an RBI single and Geovany Soto hit a two-run double in a three-run sixth in a 3-1 win Saturday, with Randy Wells pitching maybe his best game of the year.  It's been a struggle for the guy this season, so it was nice to see him pitch well and against a good team.  There were nine homers hit on Sunday.  Nine!  The Cubs' two were both from impressive Tyler Colvin, but the Cubs were blown out badly 14-3 from the Reds homers by Jonny Gomes, Paul Janish, Corky Miller, Brandon Phillips, Drew Stubbs, Drew Stubbs, and Drew Stubbs.  Stubbs surprisingly hit three homers although he is not necessarily known for his power.

Because of my busy week the last week, I didn't watch an out in a game of this homestand.  The week long drought was the longest since I became a Cubs fan on a day-to-day basis in mid 2006.  If you have something else to do with your spare time, right now I suggest you do so.  Watching this stuff is depressing.  Monday's game was promising in Arizona, but that doesn't mean anything anymore.  The problem I have with this team is that there are no strong spots.  We are bad against lefties, bad against righties.  Bad at home, bad on the road.  Bad in April, bad in May, bad in June, bad in July.  We aren't constantly getting swept and then sweeping other teams, but rather we are consistently bad against all.  We lose so many series that you wonder if there is ever a bright spot for this team.  I would feel that we are much stronger if we were streaky and won five in a row to lose five in a row right after because there is a good chance that sometime they could continue the winning formula over the rest of the season.  But no, this year we are just boring and losing.

Road Trip Wrapup: Seattle, Chi Sox

Record: 2-4
Final Record: 33-42
Games Behind First: 8.5 GB

The Cubs should've known heading into Seattle that if they were going to score a lot of runs in this series, it was going to have to be in the first game against Jason Vargas.  Vargas is a solid pitcher, but doesn't compare to the likes of Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez, the starters for the next two days.

Franklin Gutierrez provided the only scoring on Tuesday night, cranking a two-run homer off Ryan Dempster who otherwise had a great start.  Jason Vargas didn't allow a run and the Cubs were finished just like that.  Any chances the Cubs had offensively were wasted.

Cliff Lee didn't make it any easier the following night, only allowing a solo homer to Tyler Colvin.  A whole bunch of RBI hits and a home run by Michael Saunders made it a big mess that finished 8-1.  Cliff Lee had a huge lead to work with and the Cubs were done Wednesday.

The Cubs grinded out a win Thursday afternoon in extra innings.  Ted Lilly got a real nice start and Marlon Byrd singled in the winning run in the 13th allowing Tom Gorzelanny to pick up his first career save.  Good baseball was to be seen today fundamentally (no errors) and smart decisions put the overwhelming fact was that the Cubs just need to score more.  They managed just four runs in the entire series!  Four runs!  Combined with the Sox series, and there were only 14 runs on the entire road trip, over six games!  Over the first five games of the trip, the Cubs scored six runs!  Sometimes how bad the Cubs offense is can just be amazing.

For info on the second Sox series, read the Crosstown Classic: Round Two post right below this one.

Lights Out Performance by Tom Gorzelanny

On Wednesday against the Dodgers, Tom Gorzelanny got rocked by the Dodgers who ended up winning 8-5, their only win and only runs in the series.  However, Gorzelanny performed lights out.  Literally.  A power outage in the top of the 4th inning delayed play for 18 minutes due to an electrical fire that triggered a shut down of a certain power grid, including Wrigley Field.  The power failure, the third at Wrigley Field during a night game (when it actually matters) before two games against the Brewers in 2003 in separate series, was received with the following call by Len Kasper from the WGN TV booth: "...excellent week weatherwise for this homestand against the Dodgers and Cardinals and...the lights are going out...and they've all gone out!  A power outage here at Wrigley Field.  As DeWitt took the walk some of the lights went out, then pretty much all of them did.  There are about-as I can see-eight or nine lights bulbs that are still actually working.  And we see more light from the cameras taking pictures, I don't ever recall a power outage at Wrigley Field."  Len Kasper and Bob Brenly did great improv work as always with unexpected circumstances.

Blake DeWitt, at the plate with a 3-1 count at the time of the outage, took ball four while the lights were going out.  Gorzelanny was disappointed but took what he got.  "The lights went out during the pitch," Gorzelanny said. "It's kind of brutal. You're in the middle of a pitch. The guy ends up walking. There's nothing you can do about it. I begged for the pitch back, but they wouldn't give it to me.  The good thing about that was I actually did well the rest of the inning," he said. "It's one of the uncontrollable things that ballparks do to you."

DeWitt couldn't see the ball after seeing some flash of light and took his eye off it, luckily it was ball four.  "Thinking back, I wish I had hit a pop up," DeWitt said. "It would've been a good time. I would've had an inside the park home run in the dark."  However, the Cubs players were a little worried and confused.  An inside-the-park home run pop up might have been too hard to deal with for some of the players.  Ryan Theriot was asked what he was thinking at the time of the outage.

"Get the heck out and get off the field as soon as I could," Theriot said. "That was a little scary. I didn't know what was going on."

"It was a little crazy," Alfonso Soriano stated.  The Cubs went on to lose 8-5, but shut out the Dodgers in the other two games of the series in impressive fashion 3-0 and 1-0.  Randy Wells didn't record an out through six batters against the Cardinals on Friday, and was promptly yanked after giving up five runs.  James Russell pitched four impressive scoreless innings after that, but the offense could only muster a pinch-hit solo shot from Tyler Colvin, losing 7-1.  Carlos Silva looks to go 7-0 against new guy Adam Ottavino at 3:10 this afternoon on FOX.

We Buy Silva

Cubs fans likely don't all run jewelry shops, but they all, so far, buy Silva.  I was skeptical of him being named to the rotation no matter what kind of spring he had, but he hasn't pitched this well since pitching in Minnesota around five years ago.  The sinker is moving, the fastball is topping out, and the changeup is making hitters look like fools.  I don't get how he does it with his size.  The only run he gave up was to another big man, ironically.  Rod Barajas smoked a home run to left, but Silva was solid throughout besides that.  The offense returned with Alfonso Soriano collecting three hits and three RBI, so Silva got the win.  Silva has now, in the mind of Cub fans, been moved up to the #4 spot ahead of Tom Gorzelanny and we all hope to see such a feel good story keep going.  He isn't a strikeout pitcher necessarily, but reminds me of Randy Wells with the sinker and the changeup to go with the low 90s fastball that won't smoke anybody but can run up on you.  Both guys have very good control, so neither have gotten in trouble walking guys.  Tonight, Tom Gorzelanny faces Johan Santana in a big southpaw matchup.  Santana is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball, but I do hope the Cubs offense obliterates his circle change and fastball tonight because we do need to get the offense going consistently.  I could see Gorzelanny going six innings, giving up three runs or something.  Righty hitters have an advantage at funky Citi Field because although it is easier to pull one down the line for a home run to right, the gap in right-center in enormous!  The bullpen is a mile from home plate and the setback right field part of the wall knocks down fly balls.  Go Cubs! 

The Pen Just Got Bigger

The Big Z.  A book, written by Pedro Miranda, was even made about the Cubs' most troublesome pitcher.  Supposedly an ace, he lost that role probably two years ago, yet he keeps starting Opening Days out of respect.  Carlos Zambrano was relegated to the bullpen in a move I never thought I'd see.  The Cubs have a reputation for sticking with bad players through struggles and not being aggressive enough on the hook, so this is a good sign.  For the first time since 2002, the Cubs will look at a Zambrano-less rotation.  The last time Zambrano pitched from the pen was also 2002.  Despite the fact that this photo is from 2009, these types of incidents have frequented Zambrano's career the last five years or so.  Lou Piniella and the Cubs drew a lot of criticism for waiting too long to take Alfonso Soriano out the leadoff hole, so this is a move that sends a message: The Cubs are cracking down on struggling players.  No job is safe if they're not producing.

The new rotation looks odd with Dempster, Lilly, Wells, Silva, and Gorzelanny.  Zambrano will become a setup man and I hope replace John Grabow for the moment.  Grabow can't pitch.  That's all I have to say about him right now.  Zambrano will get straightened out in the bullpen, becoming available Friday and I predict he will be back in the rotation in three weeks.  The biggest issue here is my fantasy team.  The market for setup men on fantasy baseball is very, very small which means they better be playing half the games or striking out 10/9 IP.  Since Zambrano does neither, there is no trade interest out there for the guy except that he could come back and start in a few weeks.  I sympathize for fellow Zambrano owners.  Go Cubs!

Time Machine

How the Cubs have played the last three days (not including tonight at the Mets) represents the last three years of Cubs baseball.  On Friday, the Cubs won 7-2 on strong offense and good pitching.  The Cubs did all the fundamental things right, coming through in big spots and playing good defense.  There was one error in right center on a misunderstanding between Fukudome and Byrd, but they laughed it off and prevented major damage.  Even not being a notably good team defensively in 2008, they were able to kept the errors to minimal damage, like was done here.  Soriano made two very nice plays with confidence, the first good indication of his fielding ability all season.  The Cubs offense was a little quiet until they were able to put together a nice rally in the 7th including a creative safety squeeze from Ryan Theriot and then the Cubs hitters were patient leading up to Derrek Lee's big three-run homer.  The Cubs won, and all fans in Wrigleyville were more than content with this new style.  For a day.  Of course, the Cubs couldn't just keep it going, they had to add more questions to the list that had momentarily stopped growing.  On Saturday, the Cubs played 2009 baseball in that the offense was held dormant by a good pitcher in Roy Oswalt and the late comeback attempt wasn't enough.  Tom Gorzelanny and Jeff Gray couldn't stop what was the worst offense in the league up to then.  Who do the Astros have that could possibly cause them trouble?  I'm pretty sure J.R. Towles, Chris Johnson, and Jeff Keppinger wouldn't have been your top answers.  Yet there is Towles, the supposed future behind the plate in Houston, hitting a home run while the Cubs can't score.  On Sunday, we saw what the Cubs have shown again and again in this young season.  Ryan Dempster pitched an excellent outing and held a 2-0 lead going into the eighth, but Jeff Keppinger was there again to knock in a run.  However, the Cubs got out of it and it looked like they would hang on to win.  But in the 9th for the first time, it was Carlos Marmol who blew the lead to Geoff Blum (ugh...) on a double.  Of course, the offense is still hush since Marlon Byrd's two-run single in the 3rd.  Sean Marshall allows Pedro Feliz a sac fly, and Matt Lindstrom saves his second straight.  We all got to see a little brief history of the Cubs, depressingly so.  I've learned a lot in my 11 years as a baseball fan (ever since I learned the rules) and 4 years as an intense fan.  I've learned that many times, no matter how frustrating it was for your team, you just have to tip your cap to the other club.  This was not one of those instances.  I used to love the Houston Astros franchise, but the blunt lack of talent on the squad is an inevitable result of a horrible minor league system and a veteran-laden roster.  They have no business marching into Wrigley Field at 1-8 and taking two of three from a team that should win 90 games.   

Welcome to the Doghouse

John Grabow and Esmailin Caridad are the first to enter my doghouse on the Cubs.  The Cubs returned from their six game road trip to begin the season with a 2-4 record, although that mark should be 5-1.  On Wednesday in Atlanta, Grabow prevented the Cubs from getting their first win by allowing a two-run, go-ahead homer to Chipper Jones.  Just two nights later Drew Stubbs destroyed Caridad's offering into center field to blow the 3-1 lead.  Another two nights and another blown effort by the Cubs.  This time it was Grabow again, with the help of Alfonso Soriano.  In the 7th with Tom Gorzelanny still pitching, Soriano messed up a routine catch like no one else could and this resulted in the bases loaded with one out.  Miguel Cairo then singled off Sean Marshall to drive in a run, but the tied score didn't last long.  An inning later in the 8th, John Grabow loaded the bases, and Esmailin Caridad walked Ramon Hernandez to walk in a run.  After a Jonny Gomes sac fly, the Cubs were left staring at the scoreboard in disbelief for the third time in five games.

I don't see what has happened with Grabow and Caridad.  I really hope this is something they get over, but the Cubs offense wasn't playing too well on the road trip and the starters were just doing a fantastic job (exception: Carlos Zambrano).  For any of that to matter, the bullpen needs to do their job even if they don't get the big thanks for it.  As we saw, the Cubs were unable to do that.  I haven't seen a stretch like that for the Cubs ever, where the bullpen blows it three out of five nights in the 7th or later.  Hopefully I won't see that again.

I had confidence in this bullpen heading into the season.  Actually, I still do.  This was just a wake up call, and it should stay that way to all Cub fans.  The bullpen is young, and young instability is not really a problem the Cubs have had to deal with in the last few years.  Thankfully, we are young now but we need to be able to hand the ball to someone who can get outs.  This is not easy with young guys.  One night, Caridad might be firing fastballs past everyone, and the next night he's serving up meat balls obliterated all around the park.  Marmol could strike out the side, or he could walk the bases loaded and force in runs.  The main idea with all of this is that not too much should be expected from the bullpen, although there is plenty of upside.

Cubs Positional Breakdown: Starting Rotation

This area of the Cubs, fortunately, is a big strength. However, it's safe to say the Cubs' rotation underperformed in 2009.

#1: Carlos Zambrano, although he lowered his ERA for the second straight year, finished with a mediocre 9-7 record in 28 starts, signaling his first full season as a starter in which he finished with less than 13 wins. He did show promise right near the end of the season, however, including a two-hit shutout in San Francisco. The difference-maker for the hot and cold Zambrano in 2010 will be his dedication to keeping himself in shape and focus on what he needs to do to compete at the highest level, like frustrated Cub fans have seen flashes of. The dominant Zambrano could win 20 games and a Cy Young, or the other Zambrano can continue to do what he has been doing.

#2: Ryan Dempster also took a step back seeing his win total drop by six to 11. His ERA rose, although he did log his second 200-inning campaign. Dempster is a very good starter still with a live fastball and sneaky slider to go with his changeup, allowing him to get out of high pressure situations. Dempster is a positive clubhouse influence with his practical jokes and Harry Carey impersonations. Expect a bounceback year with more run support (part of the problem in 2009). 15 wins is a reasonable estimate.

#3: There are a few question marks with Ted Lilly's shoulder surgery, but it could form to be a nice audition spot for a few starts to see who deserves the #5 spot for the rest of the season. Lilly shook things up himself though, when today he announced his goal for full recovery is Opening Day. "I don't know what the date is," Lilly said Wednesday. "I'd like to be ready when all the other healthy guys are. That would be good for me. If I can't, I'll be disappointed. I have to understand that sometimes you take one step back to gain a couple forward. The whole idea is to not only come back as soon as possible and be out there contributing but be productive, too." Lilly, if healthy, will give a strong year like he has for all three of his years with the Cubs. His 44-26 record with the Cubs contains the most wins of any Cubs pitcher during that time period.

#4: Randy Wells was the biggest surprise without a doubt. A little-known rookie coming from AAA Iowa in early May to fill in for an injured starter, he became one of the most important cogs in the pitching by summer. It took a while to get a first win because of run support (see: Ryan Dempster), but he wrapped up consistent play all around for a 3.05 ERA. Another double-digit win season can be expected from Wells.

#5: Here is where things get interesting. The Cubs have a bunch of mediocre, #5 type starters, so Spring Training will tell who breaks camp with the job. Newcomer Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, and Jeff Samardzija all eye the spot. Silva would best be used from middle relief before starting, judging from his 5-18 record from two years in Seattle, making just 34 starts. Marshall has earned the spot before and didn't perform great, so many were pleased when he performed very effectively in various bullpen roles (not closer). Gorzelanny turned heads in 2007 going 14-10 with a 3.88 ERA, but has changed much since. He showed flashes of starting well with the Cubs, but still ended up with an ERA over five. Samardzija has started only two career games and was bashed in both, but his relief efforts and training have changed some minds within the Cubs organization. My verdict: Jeff Samardzija wins the job. He has the most upside here. Marshall was most effective in his bullpen role and should stay there, Silva is a mess and should be eased into an easy job to see if he can pitch at all, and Gorzelanny will be the backup (#5A) if Samardzija is overwhelmed again.

Overall Grade: A-
I gave them a minus because of the instability in the #5 spot and also the indentity theft risk of Carlos Zambrano. This would appear to be the year for him, but we just don't know. The run support that these guys had to work with was ridiculous considering the Cubs lineup. There is a 0% chance it will be that bad again. Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, and Wells are all capable of 15 win seasons in 2010. In fact, that is more likely than not. The #5 spot is kind of up in the air, I don't see what we can get from it. Those nights with the bases loaded and two outs might make us miss Rich Harden to just get a fastball high to strike 'em out, but besides that it appears Randy Wells has taken his spot effectively. The rotation will be back in 2010, watch out.