2012 Cubs Preview: Management/Intangibles

The days of the celebrity manager are gone on the North
Side, but Dale Sveum is a respectable guy who will
get things done.

New staff onboard for rebuilding process

Changes are all around the Cubs management heading into this season.  In the dugout, most of the team coaching staff has changed.  Bullpen coach Lester Strode is the only member of the staff who has been there since before 2010.  The rest of the staff consists of manager Dale Sveum, hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo, pitching coach Chris Bosio, first base coach Dave McKay, third base coach Pat Listach, bench coach Jamie Quirk, bullpen catcher Andrew Lane, and another bullpen catcher who is apparently yet-to-be-named.  

In the grand scheme of things, these coaches may seem irrelevant, seeing as it's the players who determine how many games the team actually wins.  Keep in mind, however, that these major league ball players aren't just superstars in their own world; they are on a sports team, and subject to orders of their coaches.  Unless you're name is Aramis Ramirez, you're going to listen to many of the pieces of advice your coaches give you.  Either that or you can take it up with the AAA coaches.

Plus, these coaches could also be on their way to higher positions in baseball.  Not all of them turn out to be great successes, however, as waving a runner home is definitely different than motivating a rebuilding team into the playoffs.  Not even two years ago, though, a certain Mike Quade was still to be found standing at third base whispering in the ears of Cubs players.  Like I said, not all of them turn out to be great successes.

It was time for some change down there.  I do believe that the manager has far, far more influence on the team than any other single coach.  A manager makes the calls on playing time so players want to impress the manager, while still staying as far away as possible.  It's nearly impossible to tell if success or failure of a team takes responsibility on the coaches.  For example, Jaramillo came to the Cubs widely regarded as the best hitting coach in the league, fresh off leading famous Texas Rangers teams to leading the league in category after category year after year offensively.  In Jaramillo's two years as Cubs hitting coach, it's been hard to tell the difference as the offense has stayed mediocre.  

Pitching coach Chris Bosio works with Matt Garza.

Off the field, the Cubs are in good shape.  I've talked a lot about president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer; they know what they're doing in this rebuilding process and will do what it takes to get us there.  I just hope fans keep faith as this process will take time.  Meanwhile, however, they'll set us up with some interesting pieces to look at.  Third baseman Ian Stewart is intriguing.  If he has a 30-homer season in Chicago, which he is certainly capable of, people will know his name.  Because right now, the new Cubs are unknowns.  It used to be easy; Ramirez and Lee were the starting infield corners for seven years.  But Stewart and LaHair?  It doesn't have the same ring.  It will, though, and if it won't, then Hoyer and Epstein will find someone whose name will resonate with the fan base.  That's how you know the Cubs are in good hands.

A problem for this team is speed.  The 2012 Cubs will not steal many bases.  They will definitely be the bottom 10 teams in the league in steals.  If Joe Mather beats Tony Campana for the last spot on the roster, then the Cubs will be in the bottom three.  

In fact, offense overall will be a struggle on this team.  54 home runs from a year ago walked out the door when the Cubs let Carlos Pena and Aramis Ramirez walk.  Stewart, LaHair, and Anthony Rizzo are capable of reaching that number, but they are certainly not known commodities like the previous two.  Give Hoyer and Epstein credit for taking a risk on a couple of relatively unknown players.

Pitching-wise, this season will be an interesting one.  The starting pitching will not be particularly good, but at least the players in it play a role in the team's long-term plan.  This is why I would suggest to never start veteran Rodrigo Lopez or setup man Jeff Samardzija.  Last season, a lack of depth saw the Cubs need to scramble Ramon Ortiz, Doug Davis, and Lopez as stopgaps in an emergency injury stretch.  Hopefully that will never, ever happen again.  The newer starters for the back end of the rotation in Travis Wood, Chris Volstad, Paul Maholm, and more, all have a future with the Cubs.  This way all of their experience earned now can impact the future Cubs teams, and not the retirement home or another team.

Many are saying that "it'll get worse before it gets better" for the Cubs.  I have to disagree.  Record-wise, I would expect a similar finish to last year.  In the vibe of the team, however, there will be a knowledge of a bright future ahead.  The festive Wrigley atmosphere knows that better days are coming.  Last year, the desperation deals for Matt Garza and Pena caused confusion and didn't really leave the Cubs an identity.  They weren't ready to contend, but just made two aggressive moves as if so.  This year, the idea is rebuilding.  Whether or not Sveum wants to accept it (which he doesn't), that is the plan, and there will be no more desperation moves that cleans out our farm system - at least, not for a while.          

2012 Cubs Preview: Infield

Shortstop Starlin Castro

Rebuilt, unproven group looks to make lasting impact

If there's one thing for sure about this infield, it's that the times are a-changin' at Wrigley.  None of the four starters on the infield from just two years ago are still in the organization.  On Opening Day 2010, Derrek Lee started at first base, Mike Fontenot started at second, Ryan Theriot started at shortstop, and Aramis Ramriez started at third.  Lee, Fontenot, and Theriot were all traded midseason; Ramirez played through 2011 before leaving as a free agent and signing with Milwaukee.  The starters now are less familiar to the Cubs faithful, a younger group that will work hard all the same.

Starting at first base, for the time being, will be 29-year-old Bryan LaHair, a career minor leaguer who has had very little playing time in the majors.  In fact, the only major league action he's seen besides last year's 20-game trial was in 2008 with Seattle.  

First baseman Bryan LaHair

LaHair has a chance to prove he should have been in the major leagues all along, however, if he produce with his massive power potential.  He has hit at least 25 homers in each of the last three seasons in the minors in AAA, including 38 last year to make him the Pacific Coast League MVP.  He also boasted a .331 average and a .405 OBP, rounding out an excellent season overall. This hard work earned him a trip to the major league Cubs, and he didn't disappoint, blasting a huge game-tying home run in the bottom of the 9th inning to ruin Cincinnati pitcher Mike Leake's shutout.

With LaHair, the power potential is there.  His defensive and all-around offensive skills, however, remain to be seen at the major league level.  He will most definitely have to make adjustments as the season goes on; pitchers aren't going to leave a hitter like this with too many fastballs in the middle of the plate.  His key will be hitting breaking pitches; namely curveballs, which he seemed to have some trouble with last season.

First baseman Anthony Rizzo

LaHair is exciting in his own right, but top prospect Anthony Rizzo is waiting in the wings to steal his job.  Rizzo was acquired from San Diego for another top prospect in starter Andrew Cashner.  Rizzo has monster power potential as well.  Last season he hit .331 with 26 homers and 101 RBIs for AAA Tucson in only 93 games.  The Theo & Jed brain trust resonate well with Rizzo, as Theo drafted him in Boston, then traded him to Jed in San Diego in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, and now they have gotten him back together.  

Some critics point to his major league trial in 2011 and raise red flags on his potential.  In 153 at-bats

 Rizzo batted only .141 with one home run, and I think all of the hype surrounding himself may have gotten to him.  That is not enough playing time for him to be judged on his future.  He still has the most polished talent of any prospect in the Cubs' system right now, and he'll make an impact soon.  The Cubs brass has said he'll start the season in the minors, but he hopes to change their minds with a strong Spring Training.

At second base, the story one year ago was the battle between Blake DeWitt and Darwin Barney.  There was DeWitt, the chronic underachiever in the big leagues who offered little offensive value and not as much effort as you would like on the field, and Barney, the younger option who was unknown offensively.  I endorsed Barney, and I'm still glad with that choice.  Although Barney isn't a great hitter, he made great contact last year and showed 100% effort all the time, using his superior athleticism. 

Second baseman Darwin Barney

I expect Barney's offense to continue to improve after it tailed off at the end of last season.  DeWitt's role this season, if there is one for the major league Cubs, remains to be seen.  He saw time at second base, third base, and left field last season and should again play numerous positions.  His .385 career slugging percentage shows he doesn't have hardly any pop in that bat; if he wants to make himself more valuable to the team, I suggest he become more patient to draw more walks and get on base.  

I also like what I've seen and heard about second baseman Adrian Cardenas, who could oust DeWitt for the utility role.  Cardenas has never played in the major leagues but did play left field, shortstop, third base, and second base for AAA Sacramento in the Oakland A's system.  He is two years younger than DeWitt at 25 and was claimed off waivers from Oakland earlier this month.  To make room on the 40-man roster, DeWitt was designated for assignment.  

Cardenas has a career .303 average and a .368 OBP in the minors, both good marks for a middle infielder.  Overall, if the Cubs are going younger and newer, Cardenas is the guy that should make the roster.

Second baseman Adrian Cardenas

As shortstop, the situation isn't nearly as confusing.  The cornerstone of the franchise (for now, at least) is the shortstop Starlin Castro who will be entering just his third season in the major leagues.  After a superb, All-Star 2011 season in which he nabbed the NL hits crown, Castro looks to build both offensively and defensively to become an MVP candidate sometime in the future.  Despite being super-athletic, agile and speedy, he has a lot of work to do on both sides of the ball.  

Offensively, he needs to develop more power to take his game to the next level.  If he could reach 20 homers per season, he would be in the same conversation as elite shortstops like Hanley Ramirez.  Defensively, he definitely needs to work on his accuracy.  He can fire the ball across the diamond like any other raging 22-year-old, but finding the glove is obviously key.  If he could even get his arm accuracy into the average range, his wide range at shortstop would make him an elite defender overall.  This kid doesn't need too many days off, but Dale Sveum should sit him at least once a month.  He was only yanked from a game after starting it once last year and that was in the 12th inning, so I wouldn't expect to see much of that, either.

Third baseman Ian Stewart

At third base, newcomer Ian Stewart will get the bulk majority of the playing time.  Stewart replaces the long-standing Aramis Ramirez who spent over eight seasons at the hot corner for the Cubs.  Stewart is coming off a horrible 2011 in which he didn't hit any homers in 48 games for Colorado.  He was highly-regarded as a prospect in the Rockies system, however, and hit 25 homers for the 2009 Wild Card champion team.  In Baseball America's 2005 prospect rankings, Stewart was #4 overall with vast power potential, coming off a 30-homer season in A ball at the age of 19!  In that same 2004 season he threw in 19 steals and a .398 OBP, but he hasn't been able to match that success since.  He has still been good with home run totals in the high teens, but couldn't recreate that monster season.

Stewart returned to the minors in 2011 for the first time since 2008.  He definitely showed that his injuries hadn't erased his talent with 14 homers and 42 RBIs in only 45 games, and he does walk more than most third basemen.  If he can unlock his power potential he showed early in his career and in 2009, this 27-year-old could be primed for a career year.

Cardenas and Jeff Baker should provide backup here.  I have never been a fan of Baker's because he's such a non-factor offensively, but I do have to admit that he has nice value to give lefties a day off against a lefty starter.  Baker has drastic righty-lefty splits, and his numbers against lefties are far more impressive.  In his career he's batting .309 against lefties and .239 against righties, while slugging a respectable .526 against lefties but only .364 against righties.  Of the 11 home runs he has hit while on the Cubs over two and a half seasons, all but one have come off a southpaw.

Well, there will be a lot of new faces around the infield this summer for the Cubs.  Of the seven players mentioned here, three were acquired this winter.  It's definitely a younger group, as Baker, 30, is the oldest player out of the entire group.  Although losing one of the team's core players over the last decade in Ramirez was a big loss to some, it was the right move in the long run.  The team needs to get younger and more athletic to build its own culture.  If Ramirez were one of the 'nice guys' of baseball and pledged to help the young kids learn the ropes, we might have a different story.  But then again, Carlos Pena is a 'nice guy', and he was let go of anyway.  It's up to the 22-year-old Castro to welcome his new teammates in.  He should get used to them too, because most of them are here to stay.    

Miami Builds Winning Culture

Billy the Marlin eagerly awaits the 2012
Marlins to take the field.

Despite the overblown hype, the Marlins will be in the playoff hunt all season long


The Florida Marlins - er, Miami Marlins, as they're now known - have been a truly remarkable franchise for more than a decade now.  They haven't been 'remarkable' in the same context as most other 'remarkable' teams, however, in that they're not known for success nor failure.  Aside from their magical playoff run in 2003, the Marlins have practically represented the definition of mediocrity.  Since 2000, local fans have seen five winning seasons and seven losing ones, never winning or losing more than 91 games in a single season.  That's about to change.

Owner Jeffrey Loria finally committed to recruiting star power through free agency this winter with the highly-publicized signings of Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell, and Jose Reyes, three veterans who have impressive track records as all-stars and fan favorites.  The trio carry with them 11 combined All-Star appearances, which is just the kind of publicity Loria is looking for.  Loria wants to make his team a perennial threat in a tough NL East division where four of the teams could easily be above .500.  So far, his work should earn him some immediate rewards, like sellout crowds at the new stadium this season.

A superstar?  Check.  Fast?  Check.  In compliance with
team dress code?  Check.  Jose Reyes got his dreadlocks
cut off earlier this week, selling them online for $10,200
which will go to charity.

But there's also the other point of view; have they done enough to not only attract a formerly-dormant fan base, but to retain it?  Reyes, like the rest of the plagued New York Mets, has had plenty of injury trouble over the last three years, placing his last full season in 2008.  Bell, while superb in five seasons with San Diego, has a well-known large body type that could definitely worsen his aging process, which conventional wisdom would have taking effect soon seeing as he's already 34.  Buehrle has 161 career wins and honorary status with the White Sox, but he is 33 and a definite soft-tosser who, given an aging decline that would decrease the effectiveness of his breaking stuff, could simply get rocked.

I don't think any of those things should be of primary concern right now, though.  Perhaps this change of scenery for three guys who have been with the same team for at least the last half-decade will reinvigorate their baseball competitive juices.  Their actual contributions on the field will need to be of great quality for the Marlins to get far this season, but just being there will help the team enormously.  All three of these veterans come from winning teams as some point.  If you count the one-game NL West Tiebreaker in 2007 between the Padres and Rockies that Bell pitched in as the postseason, then all three of them have played in the playoffs.  That is a key factor for this team, seeing as none of the other core players, like Mike Stanton, Josh Johnson, or Hanley Ramirez, have ever gotten used to anything but playing in a cavernous football stadium where fans struggled to cover the lower deck.  The veterans will show the young guns how a team gets to the promised land known as the MLB Postseason.

Already on the best power hitters in the league, this season
should be a major learning experience for right fielder Mike
Stanton.

The three new arrivals join former White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen in Miami, who was the first to hop aboard the Marlins' bandwagon when he abandoned ship on the Sox before the end of the regular season.  As fans know, Guillen's outspoken personality can surely fire up a team.  I believe this competitive fire is also a great fit for the team, and a great find by Loria.  For the first time ever, there is pressure on the Marlins to win something this season.  Even when they've had talented players recently (which they've had no shortage in) in Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Josh Willingham, Ricky Nolasco and Scott Olsen, the team overall has not had the overall discipline to get them anywhere.  Sure, the Marlins never had a great rotation, but committing far too many errors definitely didn't help their cause any, finishing in the bottom four in MLB in errors committed each year between 2006 and 2010.

In 2011, the Marlins earned a valuable lesson.  The team surprised the baseball world with an early 30-20 start, but then the baseball gods wreaked havoc.  They started the month of June 1-19, causing new-found manager Edwin Rodriguez to resign mysteriously.  Florida's chances at the postseason were shrunken beyond visibility, and the team wallowed back into their mediocre ways of old.  Had there been some winning blood on the team, that would not have happened so dramatically.

To say that the Marlins' roster before these upgrades was lacking "winning blood" is nothing personal; it's just that none of the core players on the team have ever been to the playoffs or come close to it.  With the additions of Reyes, Buehrle, Bell, and Guillen, the Marlins are in good shape.  Loria should be pleased with the return on his investments.  After all, he's already accomplished one of his goals; to get his team in the headlines.  With the correct moves he's made, his team should be in the winning column more often than not this summer.

Why Reed Johnson Should Have Gone Out On Top

I'm probably not on the same page as most other Cubs fans on this issue, but I think there's something to be said against the resigning of Reed Johnson, which took place a couple weeks ago.  So far I've been complementing the Cubs on pretty much all of their offseason moves, including the signings of Manny Corpas and Andy Sonnanstine and the trades of Sean Marshall and Tyler Colvin.  I did have reservations on the David DeJesus deal, but there are some things I like there, like his versatility and consistent approach.  The Johnson deal, however, simply doesn't make sense to me.  I'll explain why.

Johnson will be 35 in 2012, entering his fourth out of five seasons with the Cubs (he played with the Dodgers in 2010).  An unquestioned fan favorite who has a knack for clutch offensive skills and all-out, aggressive defense, he is a fundamentally strong baseball player.  Of the five tools, only his contact hitting and defense stand out.

I was formally introduced to Johnson in June 2005 as he hit a three-run homer at Wrigley Field with the Toronto Blue Jays.  He made a much bigger name for himself, however, once he came to a market that would truly appreciate his talent in the North Side of Chicago.

I have always been a Reed fan myself; it's hard not to be when he's the only one who operates at 110% of his ability on defense.  However, the Cubs just recently had a logjam in the outfield in 2010 as Kosuke Fukudome and Tyler Colvin battled for at-bats in right field.  Seems like the Cubs are asking for another one.  Sure, Johnson doesn't need many at-bats or hardly any starts, but he also shouldn't warm the bench for a week straight.

Personally I'd rather see Tony Campana, who was projected as the fourth outfielder, to fill the role that Johnson will in 2012.  Campana, although raw and unknown in potential, is young and has something to prove, unlike Johnson.  Campana's speed factor, which produced 24 steals in very limited playing time last year, is very valuable to a roster that seriously lacks it.  While Johnson plays hard on defense to the naked eye, his defense stats tell that he doesn't field it like he used to.  Johnson's range factor and fielding percentage were both below league average, not to mention a -.1 defensive wins above replacement compared to Campana's .9, even though Johnson got more playing time.

I don't need any statistics, however, to tell you that Theo and Jed are exercising a youth movement.  New Cubs regulars will include Ian Stewart, Travis Wood, and Bryan LaHair/Anthony Rizzo, all of whom are younger than those that they replaced in Aramis Ramirez, Rodrigo Lopez, and Carlos Pena, respectively.  Even though Johnson is a role player, his role is a misfit to me.      

The 2011 All-Division Team, Part 4: NL Central

NL Central RF: Lance Berkman

Part 4 of 6: National League Central


Before turning to another awesome edition of the All-Division Team, I must make an announcement.  An apology, actually.  In my post comparing Prince Fielder and Yu Darvish, I incorrectly reported that the Blue Jays had won his bidding rights, which I believed to be true at the time of writing.  Although the Jays were the second-closest team to earning the rights, the Rangers actually won them.  I got some faulty information.  Won't happen again.  OK?  OK!

In the creation of the All-Division Team, however, selections are subjective.  Feel free to disagree and argue against any of the winners!

C Yadier Molina, STL 
'Yadi' has been a key contributor to both World Champion Cardinals teams from the past half-decade.  Since 2006, though, he has also developed into probably the best defensive catcher in the National League.  His knack for throwing to the bases after pitches to keep runners close proves very effective, and the team leader is still only 28.  At the plate Molina displays rare contact skills from a catcher, striking out under 50 times in 475 at-bats.  Batting .305 doesn't hurt either.  Competition: Geovany Soto (CHC), Michael McKenry (PIT), Humberto Quintero (HOU), Jonathan Lucroy (MIL), and Ramon Hernandez (CIN).

1B Prince Fielder, MIL
In his ever-pivotal walk year, the Prince put on a show.  Ever wonder how Ryan Braun really beat Matt Kemp in the MVP race, even though Kemp's stats were better?  Look no further.  Providing Braun with ultimate lineup protection, Fielder walked more than he struck out in 2011 (highly rare for a power hitter) and blasted 38 homers and 120 RBIs while slugging .566.  It's no wonder that a feared power hitter like Braun, who bats directly in front of Fielder, went the whole season being intentionally walked just twice.  If I were a pitcher, I wouldn't want to face the Prince either.  Competition: Albert Pujols (STL), Carlos Pena (CHC), Joey Votto (CIN), Lyle Overbay (PIT), and Brett Wallace (HOU).

2B Brandon Phillips, CIN
Who's the best shortstop in the NL Central?  Why of course, it's Dat Dude BP!  Brandon Phillips, who entertains fans on Twitter with the aforementioned handle, enjoyed one of his best seasons in a year that found him taking home his first Silver Slugger and his third Gold Glove after making his second All-Star appearance in July.  Besides continuing to be a 20-20 threat and a consistently clutch run producer, Phillips batted .300 for the first time in his career.  His positive leadership and attitude and vital traits to the Reds organization at the moment as its future is unclear.  Way to go, Brandon.  Competition: Skip Schumaker (STL), Neil Walker (PIT), Jose Altuve (HOU), Darwin Barney (CHC), and Rickie Weeks (MIL).

3B Aramis Ramirez, CHC
Ramirez had another slow start in the power department for the second year in a row.  This time, however, his swing was looking good and his mechanics were correct, he just wasn't clearing the wall for whatever reason.  The Chicago weather heated up around the same time his bat did, though, and he finished with 26 homers.  A rare breed of the low-strikeout slugger, Ramirez struck out only 69 times.  In his final season with the Cubs he cemented his place as one of the Cubs' great third basemen of all-time.  Competition: Scott Rolen (CIN), David Freese (STL), Casey McGehee (MIL), Pedro Alvarez (PIT), and Chris Johnson (HOU).

NL Central SS: Starlin Castro

SS Starlin Castro, CHC (2nd)
In one of the better breakout performances of 2011, this sophomore was the National League's hit king with 207 knocks.  Developing power began to show its potential as the season went on, and much improved baserunning skills showed the makings of a franchise player.  While defense is still an issue, it was better than it was a year before and strides of improvement can be expected for 2012.  With so much raw talent, there's no telling the ceiling on this guy's future.  If 2011 was just the beginning, it was pretty awesome.  Competition: Clint Barmes (HOU), Ryan Theriot (STL), Yuniesky Betancourt (MIL), Ronny Cedeno (PIT), and Paul Janish (CIN).

LF Ryan Braun, MIL
Steroids, anyone?  Even if Braun took performance-enhancing drugs during the 2011 season, it was exciting to watch while it lasted.  He took the middling Brewers to the NLCS and led the best team in the league for most of the season.  Braun put up above average numbers even for power hitters but perhaps more impressive was the .397 OBP, which meant runners on base for the batters behind him, most notably the Prince.  An outburst of speed at age 27 also had pitchers distracted.  Competition: Alfonso Soriano (CHC), Carlos Lee (HOU), Matt Holliday (STL), Ryan Ludwick (PIT), and Yonder Alonso (CIN).

NL Central CF: Andrew McCutchen

CF Andrew McCutchen, PIT (2nd)
McCutchen put it all together in his second full season.  The Pirates, who surprised the world with their contention into July, relied on McCutchen's 20-20 talent everyday.  His energy invigorated a dead Pittsburgh franchise and the winning ways will be back sometime soon as long as Andrew McCutchen is in center.  He revealed a newfound patience in 2011, a tool that eludes most young power-speed dual threat players.  Competition: Jason Bourgeois (HOU), Marlon Byrd (CHC), Nyjer Morgan (MIL), Drew Stubbs (CIN), and Jon Jay (STL).

RF Lance Berkman, STL
Say what?  I was thinking the Cardinals' signing of Berkman - to start in right field, no less - would be something along the lines of disastrous.  Apparently Berkman still has game though, and he proved it with an incredible .412 OBP and 31 homers, batting .301 overall.  His defense was okay in right field, but his offensive production far outweighed any criticism there.  Playing 145 games, he also walked 92 times, among the leaders in the NL.  This was simply one of the best offensive seasons in baseball, not just of right fielders or comeback veterans.

SP Matt Garza, CHC
The NL Central was a surprisingly weak division for starting pitchers.  Garza, though, was huge for his team.  In a Cubs rotation that essentially imploded with the loss of the #4 and #5 starters in the first week of the regular season, Garza provided stability and consistent outings all season long.  In return, he earned some of the worst run support in the NL.  Being a leader and ultimate team player, however, was not lost on this writer.  Competition: Yovani Gallardo (MIL), Chris Carpenter (STL), Kevin Correia (PIT), Bronson Arroyo (CIN), and Wandy Rodriguez (HOU).

CP John Axford, MIL
Any Cubs fan who watched the Cubs fail in Milwaukee last season got to see a load of this guy, but not for very long because the Cubs were little resistance to Axford's dominant ways.  He finished the season 46-for-48 in saves with a 1.95 ERA, striking out almost four for each batter he walked.  The Brewers can't ask for much more out of this 6-5 beast who seemingly came out of nowhere to become the shutdown closer on the NL's most complete team.  What a stud.  Competition: Carlos Marmol (CHC), Mark Melancon (HOU), Francisco Cordero (CIN), Jason Motte (STL), and Joel Hanrahan (PIT).


That does it for another installment of the MLB All-Division Team!  Next up is the AL West, followed by the NL West and finally a summary of the whole thing.  

Fit For a Prince, Or Was Yu da Man?

Prince Fielder would a better player to
build around than Yu Darvish.

Cubs pursuing first baseman Prince Fielder and pursued starter Yu Darvish; which move would have made more sense?


Two of the top free agents remaining in the winter free agent pool were being actively pursued by the Cubs, at least until one of them fell off the board officially earlier today.  Darvish, 25, is a right-handed starter who was the ace of the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan since 2007 (his first full season), going 93-38 over seven total seasons.  Fielder, 27, is the big man from Milwaukee already known for his 230 career homers and supposed weight of 275 pounds (does anyone believe that?).  The Cubs have, through outside reports or press releases, made aggressive strides towards acquiring both.  It appeared before and still does now that getting both was not within the real of possibility for Theo & Co, which leaves the main question; which one actually helps the Cubs more in the short-term and long-term?

Although a great pitcher, no one knows how
well Yu Darvish will adjust to MLB hitters.

If you think the answer is Darvish, unfortunately we'll never find out how accurate that estimation is.  The Texas Rangers (UPDATED) won the exclusive bidding rights for Darvish and now will be the only team with a chance to sign him.  This doesn't mean he is now a Ranger, but it does mean that if Darvish is playing in MLB next season, it can now only be with Texas.  If the Rangers don't work out a deal with him, which is highly unlikely, I think he returns to Japan.  Now it's up to Rangers GM Jon Daniels and the rest of the Texas staff to work out a contract with him.  The Cubs, Yankees, and Blue Jays also placed bids for negotiating rights, but the Rangers appear to be the highest bider.

The negotiating rights process Darvish is going through is very similar to that of Daisuke Matsuzaka when the Red Sox won the negotiating rights for him in the 2006/07 offseason.  Matsuzaka, who was also pursued by the Yankees, signed with the Red Sox after they won negotiating rights, the two deals (negotiating rights and contract) coming at a combined price tag of over $100 million.  Dice-K has been a major disappointment for Boston and has caused plenty of second-guessing in the Darvish sweepstakes.

Matsuzaka was 26 when he signed, and he was hailed as the future ace of the Red Sox, an international star who would only dominate even more with the move to the United States.  How could American hitters possibly solve a pitcher with eight different pitches, analysts pondered.  Apparently they have, and five years into his Red Sox career he has given them just 49 wins on a stunningly mediocre 4.25 ERA.  He has missed significant time to injury each of the last three seasons.

Although Darvish's mechanics and pure 'stuff' would suggest otherwise, he could perform similarly.  At the time of his signing, Darvish was coming off five straight seasons with an ERA under 2.00 in Japan.  At the time of his, Matsuzaka was coming off four straight seasons with an ERA under 3.00.  One would hope Darvish will have more success, and his blistering fastball, drop-dead 12-6 curveball and physics-defying slider would suggest so.  But the possibility lingers that Darvish, like Matsuzaka, will struggle to adapt to American hitters who are more patient and skilled than ones he has faced before, especially in the power department.

Fielder brings a very different type of energy to the team.  Fielder is a known commodity in MLB and especially to Cubs fans who have been watching him grow over the past half-decade.  Since a breakout 50-homer season in 2007, he has been all over the league launching bombs with great regularity and positive swagger.  During the Winter Meetings a friend of his leaked that Fielder is most interested in playing for the Cubs than any of the other suitors, which include the Mariners, Nationals, and possibly Texas.  Then why, you ask, is a deal takin' so dang long?!  First of all, he's a Scott Boras client.  Boras has no problem running out the clock on teams to earn his clients each and every penny that they're "due".  Secondly, the Cubs have been non-committal about Fielder to the media so their interest level throughout the process has probably varied.  The Cubs are now in the mix, but a deal with Boras isn't going to be struck overnight.  We certainly won't see anything like the Albert Pujols-to-Anaheim deal, which saw the Angels make initial contact with Pujols just 36 hours before signing one of the most pivotal contracts in baseball history.

If trying to browse through media to gauge the Cubs' level of interest on Fielder, you're probably getting a lot of crossing signals.  Yes, it's very confusing at this point.  Many things I've heard say the Cubs are involved and in pursuit with intent to sign, while others, like manager Dale Sveum, have come out and said the Cubs are not involved at all.  In my opinion, Sveum is either surprisingly unaware of what his front office is up to or trying to do a cover-up job, and a bad one at that.  He said the Cubs organization has had no contact at all with Fielder, which is definitely untrue.

Whichever way you put it though, the Cubs have had serious interest in both.  In my opinion, the Cubs would be better off with Fielder instead of Darvish.  The fair criticism of Darvish in comparison to Matsuzaka and other recent Japanese pitchers who have fizzled is evidence enough that although he looks impressive now, the transition to MLB hitters is very tough.  This means dishing out big bucks to Darvish is a very volatile move, and if he can't get it together, the Cubs are stuck with another big contract that they don't want.

Even though Fielder also presents the obvious risk of an big contract and is no man invincible to natural decline with age, the level of risk is significantly lower.  If the Cubs had won Darvish, his new team would be thousands of miles away and his new competition would be far better.  If Fielder could track down one of those long-distance suburban taxi companies between Chicago and Milwaukee, he could probably take a cab from Miller Park to his new home at Wrigley.  He would be in the same division and same league, so for him the focus would basically be to continue what he has already been doing his whole career.

Also, what statement does the signing make?  If the Cubs were actually in full rebuilding mode, they would not even be considering these two top free agents.  Because the Cubs are the Cubs, however, and wreak the benefits of being a large-market team and are really the most famous franchise in the National League, they can afford to sign a superstar to build around, which can either accelerate the rebuilding process or send it backwards a few steps.  I think Fielder would be a great character to build around and bring stability to a position that demands it especially after the loss of Aramis Ramirez to those Brewers.

Darvish would have far too many immediate obstacles to become a team leader to build around.  The language barrier is a major obstacle, and a bust deal would reverse the depth issue because the Cubs would have to pay double-digit millions per year for a bad starter eating a rotation spot, similar to Matsuzaka's recent role with the Red Sox.  Although rotation depth is a major problem for the Cubs right now, this was not the right opportunity to fix it.  Thankfully the Cubs have taken a good step in finding rotation depth as they are now talking to Paul Maholm about a contract.  Other targets I would explore are Edwin Jackson, Javier Vazquez, Jon Garland, and Roy Oswalt.

So finally, Prince Fielder is the guy to build around if there is one between these two.  The Rangers winning Darvish rights may not be a bad thing; it prevents possibility of the Cubs making a deal far too volatile for their current losing situation.          

Cubs Trade Tyler Colvin to Rockies; Acquire Ian Stewart

New Cubs third baseman Ian Stewart

The Cubs are shuffling the outfield deck for the second time in a week.  On Thursday afternoon, just as the world was in the midst of Albert Pujols shock, the Cubs and Rox closed the Winter Meetings with a deal that sends Colvin and infielder D.J. LeMahieu to Colorado for Stewart and right-handed reliever Casey Weathers.  The deal comes approximately a week after the Cubs made their first major move of the offseason in signing David DeJesus who is now undoubtedly going to be the everyday right fielder.

At first I was very skeptical of this trade, and I sure didn't expect Colvin to be traded out of our surplus of outfielders.  Before this trade, there were four outfielders that demanded regular playing time: Colvin, Tony Campana, Marlon Byrd, and Alfonso Soriano.  That also doesn't include infrequent visits from Blake DeWitt and prospects soon to arrive like Brett Jackson, who will demand playing time upon arrival.  However, it was Colvin who was dumped.

Ian Stewart has been the Rockies third baseman for about four years, but injuries derailed his 2011 season. At his best in 2009 and 2010, Stewart hit 25 and 18 home runs, respectively, but for a very low average.  He does strikeout plenty but also walks a decent amount, raising his OBP around 80 points higher than his batting average.  He hit only .156 in his 122 at-bats last season without a home run, very similar to Colvin's demise.

Which player will recover more effectively?  I couldn't answer this question, and neither could my quick research, so I turned to the media of all places for some reaction.  MLB Network's Clubhouse Confidential show, which examines the offseason and players via sabermetrics, declared Stewart the better player and more likely to rebound because of his better career walk rate in the minors (.373 career minors OBP compared to Colvin's .315).

The Cubs' top draft pick in 2006, Tyler Colvin's Cubs
career is finished after just 221 games.

Now that we've got that figured out, let's get to the bottom of the minor pieces.  LeMahieu, still only 23, took only two years from being drafted in 2009 to reach the Majors in 2011.  He didn't show much in his brief trial, but his minor league records are more notable.  A .317 career hitter in the minors, his 11% strikeout rate opened plenty of eyes.  Even though he has been a great contact hitter in the minors, that often changes quickly in the Majors against power pitchers never faced before.  LeMahieu was projected to get some playing time at third or around the infield in 2012, but overall, not a big loss.

Weathers, on the other hand, could be a decent pickup for the Cubs.  The 27-year-old Weathers, who has never played under the big league lights before, had major control issues in 2011 at AA Tulsa for the first time in his professional career, walking the same amount he struck out.  He has terrific strikeout stuff, but continued control problems will not make him an asset at all.  The Cubs will just have to hope it was a fluke.  In my initial reaction to the trade, I figured Weathers would stay in AA and AAA for most of the season.  Apparently he's being invited to big league camp in Arizona and will compete for a bullpen spot on the Major League team.  We'll see what happens.

Overall, this is a good trade.  Theo & Co. like guys with a high OBP, and they got another one here.  Stewart plays a decent defensive third base (better than Aramis Ramirez), and his home run balls will reach Sheffield on multiple occasions.  When he really squares up an inside fastball and gulfs a home run, his swing looks pretty awesome.  The loss of LeMahieu isn't anything to stress about, and Weathers has lots of upside.  So we've got that goin' for us, which is nice.

Theo-cracy 2.0

Tom Ricketts introduced Theo Epstein, new President
of Baseball Operations, to the media last week.

Hopefully, a new era has arrived with the introduction of Theo Epstein as President of Baseball Operations, Jed Hoyer as General Manager, and Jason McLeod in some role in player development.  Epstein was formally introduced at a press conference on October 25 while Hoyer and McLeod will get theirs tomorrow.  I hope this means new philosophy with a solid gameplan in the Cubs front office, because for the last two years really, it seemed as if there was an argument going on between staff in favor of rebuilding and staff in favor of trying to win now, and the roster moves the Cubs made were a mix of both.  For example, trading Derrek Lee in August 2010 favored rebuilding, while trading some of the organization's top prospects for Matt Garza favored winning now.  The inconsistencies start at ownership.

I remember this part well; when Tom Ricketts was taking criticism for having a business man in Crane Kenney as President instead of a 'baseball guy' (as in a man with a scouting background who actively is overseeing player development and other staff in the organization), Ricketts replied that he doesn't need a 'baseball guy' to watch his other 'baseball guy' (talking about GM Jim Hendry).  However, Ricketts said in the Epstein press conference that Epstein had been a target to be the architect of the organization from the day Hendry stepped down.  Apparently a 'baseball guy' comes in handy, as one should.  The role of President of a baseball franchise is not to sell hot dogs and suite packages to corporations, it's to oversee all the player personnel and development staff, including the entire front office and all the players.  Kenney hardly did the second part at all.

Ronnie Woo-Woo approves.

The public's reaction to Epstein here in Chicago has honestly been stunning.  I don't really think that's a good thing, though.  If this is a true theo-cracy, then there Theo must be the deity at the center of it all.  So far, everyone in Chicago has tabbed Epstein as the savior of the Cubs organization, and surely there's no way the Cubs won't win a World Series now.  See how far that kind of thinking has gotten us?  Come on guys.

Theo-cracy 1.0, the Red Sox version, was revolutionary because it found value (or lack thereof) in players for specific traits or abilities, so as to maximize the baseball capabilities of the 25-man roster, just like Billy Beane did in Oakland.  However, Theo-cracy 1.0 was performed on a much bigger stage; Red Sox Nation, desperate for a World Series title for the first time in a Cub-like number of years.

Theo was not without seemingly random occurrences of luck.  How could he have predicted that a slow, bad-fielding first baseman-turned-DH from Minnesota, whose career high in homers was 20 in 2002, would turn into the AL home run king with 54 just four years later?  Also, it wasn't like he was taking over a bad team.  The Red Sox had put together playoff teams in 1995, 1998, 1999, and won 93 games in 2002.  He inherited Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Trot Nixon, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Lowe, and Pedro Martinez, six established stars on a good team.  On the Cubs, however, there is nowhere near as much star power.

In other news, the wall advertising behind Epstein during
his press conferences will no longer be the Red Sox'
signature visually-appealing Dunkin Donuts logo.

The only stars the Cubs have right now are Starlin Castro and Matt Garza.  After that, questions arise everywhere, whether it be inconsistency from Geovany Soto or Ryan Dempster or who will even start at the corners of the infield next season.  This is exactly why Theo is no savior; this is by far a harder challenge than his first in Boston.

Hoyer and McLeod, on the other hand, were just minions of Epstein back in the day.  The two took what they learned to San Diego, where Hoyer became GM in 2010 and McLeod joined the front office.  Together, they helped revamp the Padres' scouting and development system.  Partially as a result, Baseball America ranked the Padres' organizational talent eighth in MLB.  Now Hoyer and McLeod are reunited with their mentor, and I think the result will be one of the most unique decision-making forces around.

While the roles of GM and President of Baseball Operations are not interchangeable, they have their similarities.  While GM used to be the only job that seemed to matter to construct a ballclub, things appear to be changing.  When the media asked former Phillies and Blue Jays GM Pat Gillick about the Cubs' vacancy, he replied that he longer wanted to be a GM, but rather a President of Baseball Operations.

An action shot of Theo starring the ivy
in a rarely-seen autumn color scheme.

A President of Baseball Operations does exactly what it sounds like; he is the top authority in charge of everything in the Cubs organization relating to the actual team put out on the field, which means he has power over the GM and anyone else in the front office.  It appears to be a most desirable position these days.  Epstein saw the benefits and abandoned ship with the Red Sox to get it with the Cubs.  So even though Hoyer will be making the day-to-day moves like roster call-ups or arbitration negotiations, Epstein will be the key architect of the team, the big-picture guy.  McLeod, scouting director Tim Wilken and VP of Player Personnel Oneri Fleita will be shuffling minor leaguers and crunching numbers to help build the future.  I therefore think it's kind of ironic that everyone is calling Epstein the savior while the Cubs front office will be more of a team effort than it ever has been.

Even though Epstein can't play third or first base, outfield, or a #5 starting pitcher (or a #4 or #3, for that matter), his presence on the team will be felt in the next few years.  He's no savior, but he and his delegation of executives will get the team to start playing better baseball one way or another.  Realistically, 2012 probably isn't the year, but I have high hopes for 2013.  As does Epstein.

Road Trip Analysis: St. Louis, San Diego

It's been a tough season for the Cubs, but you won't hear
National League hit king Starlin Castro complaining.

Record: 2-4
Final Record: 71-91

Starlin Castro just narrowly missed his 200th hit of the season at home, but he didn't waste any time in St. Louis as he singled to center to lead off Friday's game, making him the youngest Cub ever to get 200 hits and only the second Cub to do it since Ryne Sandberg in '84 (Juan Pierre also did it in '06).  Castro finished this season with 207 hits, tying him for the 9th-most hits in a single-season by a Cub.  He is the third Cub in seven seasons to be the NL hit king after Derrek Lee in '05 and Pierre in '06.

Ryan Dempster kept the Cubs in that game which was a 1-1 tie in the 8th when Alfonso Soriano blasted a three-run homer into the left-center bullpen off Kyle McClelland.  Castro, not to be overshadowed on his special night, hit an RBI single in the 9th.  The Cubs won 5-1, putting a big dent in the Cardinals' wild card hopes, but as we found out later, it wouldn't matter.

The win did matter for the Brewers, however, who watched the end of the game with their fans on the scoreboard at Miller Park.  With Carlos Marmol closing out the game, the Brewers won the NL Central.  The Brewers don't often root for the Cubs, but this was a worthy exception.  I thought it was pretty cool that we were the team to down the Cards and basically give the Brewers their division championship.  I guess that's our one gift to them in exchange for our fans invading their ballpark to watch the Cubs crush the Brewers on their home turf for most of the last decade.

On Saturday, the Cardinals were down to their final strike multiple times in the bottom of the 9th against Marmol and down 1-0.  Marmol walked three, walking in the tying run and allowing the winning run to score on a wild pitch.  A loss for the Cardinals would have meant the end of their season in all likeliness, and looking at the way things played out, if Marmol had just thrown strikes and gotten the save, the Braves would have been won the Wild Card.  So in a way, the Brewers and Cardinals are both indebted to the Cubs for helping them out with their postseason aspirations.  I just wish they could've slammed the door on the charging Cardinals to get some pride back, because they have basically walked all over the Cubs this season, winning the season series 10-5.

Two clutch homers late off Randy Wells helped
the Cardinals get into the postseason.

Albert Pujols still hasn't said anything significant on whether or not he will resign with the Cardinals this offseason.  Just in case he leaves, the Busch Stadium fans gave him a standing ovation before his first at-bat Sunday, which could have been the final Cardinals home game of the season.  It wasn't, however, so more standing ovations will come in the playoffs.

For the second straight day, the Cubs blew a late lead.  This time it was on the starter, Randy Wells, who gave up a game-tying homer to Yadier Molina in the 7th and a go-ahead shot to Rafael Furcal in the 8th.  These inexplicable meltdowns on two consecutive days the Cardinals need to win provided all the evidence I require: I can now undoubtedly say that the baseball gods are frowning upon Cubdom, and are punishing its players and fans with the humiliation of letting the Cardinals into the playoffs.  I'm not a very religious guy, but in baseball, I might as well be evangelical.  Play the game right, and the baseball gods shall reward.

The Cubs were shut out by Mat Latos on Monday night in for the 10th and final time on the season, down from 15 times in 2010.  Mike Quade played "the kids" in the lineup, featuring Tony Campana, Bryan LaHair, Steve Clevenger, D.J. LeMahieu, and Tyler Colvin namely.  Seeing as the Padres allowed two hits all night long, the results speak for themselves.

Alfonso Soriano flips the bat watching
his 26th and last homer of the season
Tuesday night in San Diego.

On Tuesday night the Cubs got their 71st and final win of the season.  Matt Garza got back to .500 at 10-10 and Soriano and Aramis Ramirez both hit their 26th homers of the season in the 6-2 win.  Although Garza deserved better, 10-10 is a solid record off which he can build next season.  It was nice to see one final, complete win where the Cubs thoroughly beat the opponent with clean baseball (they committed no errors).

The last game of the season is always an emotional affair for me.  No matter how bad the Cubs are in a season, I have to watch most, if not all, of the season finale.  There's a certain sense of finality in baseball that I don't see in other sports - not a bad thing, but interesting.  Baseball's 162-game season is such a long grind, it's really incredible to sit there on my couch and think about how this team right in front of me has played 161 games already this season.  Even though this season finale was a blowout loss (a season-ending loss for the Cubs for the fifth year in a row) and I was distracted by the historic Wild Card Wednesday, that doesn't mean I enjoyed it any less.  On the last day of the season, I focus on the nuances of the Cubs players and I just listen to Len and Bob, taking in all in the sights and sounds of my team to last me a long and cold Chicago winter.

Smiling in the dugout always means something good
but there wasn't enough of it in 2011.

The game itself was a nice sendoff for the Padres, who decided to break out the bats despite scoring the second-least runs in the National League in 2011.  Nick Hundley's three-run homer and Wil Venable's grand slam were more than enough to finish the Padres season on a winning note.  Interesting enough, the Padres win totaled their season record at 71-91.  What was the Cubs' record?  Guess.

Now that the regular season is over, my coverage of the postseason will dominate blog entries this month.  Not to be overlooked, however, will be my 2011 Cubs: Season In Review and the 2011 Cubs Awards posts coming up in the next few weeks.  For all of those who have been reading my rants and babbles and complaints and thoughts and whatever other noun you can come up with to summarize my posts on the Cubs this season, I thank you all!  Record readership is a signal to me that I must've done something right.  While you have the spare time, check out my latest creation on Sporcle!

Homestand Analysis: Houston, Milwaukee

Starlin Castro narrowly missed
getting his 200th hit at home.

Record: 4-2
Final Record: 69-87

Carlos Lee, despite all odds, has actually had a really great season.  Call me crazy, but the Astros former outfielder (now part-time outfielder and part-time first baseman) has a WAR this season of a full 7.0 points higher than last season!  For comparison, Ryan Braun's 7.2 WAR is 4th in the NL.  Unfortunately for Lee, however, his WAR last season was -2.5, making this season's at 4.5.  Still a very impressive turnaround, and the move to first base definitely hides his defensive weaknesses.  His defensive WAR this season is up 4.0, from -2.0 to 2.0.

Lee hit a solo homer in Friday's game at Wrigley Field for what should have been the only run off Matt Garza.  Even though it was only his 17th of the season, he has been very clutch and improved his walk rate to the point where his OBP improved nearly 50 points compared to last season.  With two outs and two strikes in the ninth on Lee with a 3-1 Cubs lead and a man on base, Lee tagged Garza, who was a strike away from a complete game win, for a two-run game-tying home run.  Marlon Byrd drove in the winning run with an infield single in the 12th.

Despite Lee's great season, the Astros have undoubtedly been the worst team in baseball.  Even though they haven't won the division since 2001, their franchise history reveals that even when bad, they've managed to stay mediocre and avoid disastrous, 100-loss seasons.  Only eight times in the franchise's 50-year history has the team finished with more than 90 losses.  But this seasons, all bets were off and the 'Stros were on pace to lose around 115 games even in May.  Although they definitely won't lose that many now, they lost their 100th on Saturday against the Cubs.  Rodrigo Lopez dominated and Bryan LaHair homered for the go-ahead run early but the lead stood 2-1 at the end.

Bleacher fans celebrate the last home win of the season.
Attendance was down for the fourth year in a row at
Wrigley, but hope is on the horizon this offseason.

Ryan Dempster had one of his typically awful first innings on Sunday but calmed down after that, giving up just those first three runs.  In the 8th, a three-run homer by Carlos Pena appeared to give the Cubs a 4-3 lead, but official review revealed the ball bounced off the yellow rope which divides the home run line and came back into the park, which is in play.  The tying (Starlin Castro) and go-ahead (Pena) runs had to stay at third and second, respectively.  Byrd failed once again with runners in scoring position (surprise, surprise) and that was the only chance the Cubs would have.  The Cubs took two of three, but should have swept.

Geovany Soto drove in all five runs on Monday night against Milwaukee on two homers and a single.  His first homer got onto Waveland Ave, making him the first Cub to reach Waveland this season.  Jerry Hairston Jr. homered off Casey Coleman for his only earned run, and Carlos Marmol performed his routine over-dramatization of a 'save' with a four-run lead by allowing Casey McGehee a 9th inning homer then putting on a few baserunners.  But with the tying run at the plate, the Cubs escaped, winning 5-2.

Mike Quade expects to be back next season, but the
new GM will probably have other (better?) ideas

Tuesday's game was a mess as los Cerveceros put up four on Randy Wells in the 4th inning.  Wells' late season hot streak is definitely over.  Castro was the only Cubs run in the 6th when he homered off Shaun Marcum, who was otherwise practically untouched.  Aramis Ramirez left early with an injury in what could be his last game at Wrigley as a Cub.

In the final home game of the season Wednesday afternoon, the Cubs passed 3,000,000 in attendance.  At 3,017,966 (an average of 37,258), the Cubs just barely passed the mark for the eighth year in a row.  Although 3,000,000 is a great feat achieved by a lucky bunch of larger-market teams, the extra empty seats at Wrigley was no secret.  Through April and May, it didn't look like the Cubs had any chance to get back to 3M, but consistent crowds of 39,000+ in the summer months pushed it through.

In 2008, the Yankees and Mets both had over 4,000,000 in attendance, but higher ticket prices and a recession saw no more 4M teams since.  There won't be any of them this season either; not even close.  The Phillies, MLB's attendance leader, would have to have around eight more home games to reach that.    This season, seven teams have reached the 3M mark and the Angels will by the end of the season.  The first seven in order are the Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Twins, Red Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals.

Matt Garza celebrates his complete game win
to close the 2011 home schedule.

D.J. LeMahieu doubled in two in that home finale as part of a 7-1 blowout.  Byrd hit a three-run homer and Garza got his complete game this time, ending the home season on a high note.  Castro, hot in the pursuit of 200 hits on the season as the NL's hits king, had three chances to get it but was intentionally walked, grounded out to short, and walked.  He got his 200th leading off Friday's game in St. Louis, so not to worry.

The last road trip of the season features St. Louis and San Diego.  The Cubs can really hurt St. Louis' playoff chances with even one win, which they got Friday night.  The Padres aren't playing for much, but the Cubs should be able to close out the season with a series win there.  It's hard to believe the Cubs are done at Wrigley in 2011, but Opening Day feels like years ago.  Watching baseball at Ye' Olde Wrigley was less fun than usual without an alcoholic aid...but big change is coming this offseason and it definitely won't get any worse than it was this season.  Financial flexibility will make us a better team next season, so I foresee games at Wrigley being a significantly hotter ticket next summer than this one.

Road Trip Analysis: New York, Cincinnati

Cubs steal emotional finale in New York on 9/11's 10th anniversary

Record: 3-4
Final Record: 65-85

Ever since the Mets traded Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers in July, the search has been on for the closer of the future.  Hard-throwing Bobby Parnell couldn't handle the job in his trial, so Manny Acosta got the honors on Friday night with a 4-3 lead in the ninth.  Darwin Barney's RBI single gave Acosta a blown save and a wide round of boos from the Citi Field crowd, but the offense redeemed him in the bottom of the inning on Justin Turner's walk-off double.

Late in the game Saturday, the Mets looked to win another tight game.  Jason Bay came through with a two-out RBI single to give the Mets a 4-3 lead in the eighth.  After Acosta's blown chance the night before, the Mets staff came crawling back to Parnell to save the next game.  Parnell blew yet another lead, as the Cubs continued their recent comeback trend.  Aramis Ramirez's two-run single to give the Cubs a deciding 5-4 lead came on a 98 mph fastball from Parnell to knot the series at one.

It's not everyday that ESPN shows a Major League Baseball game, in its primetime Sunday night slot no less, between two teams that are a combined 45.5 games out in their respective divisions.  For the Cubs, that's all Sunday night's game in New York was.  A game.  For the Mets, it was much more.  It was practically a mourning, an emotional anniversary of a terrorist attack in their community.  Many fans in the stands were personally connected to those that died on 9/11, and a big pregame ceremony was held in remembrance.  I thought the game would be sold out for sure, and it sure as hell would've made a greater statement if it was.  But apparently much of Queens didn't get the memo, as only 33,502 came to watch another tight game.

Tyler Colvin had three RBIs by the fifth inning when the Cubs held a 4-1 lead, but the Mets started chipping away on Matt Garza, eventually tying it in the eighth off Jeff Samardzija.  It would remain tied until the 11th, when rookie Josh Stinson gave up the lead followed by a two-run double each for Alfonso Soriano and Barney off Ryota Igarashi.  A Geovany Soto sac fly made it 10-4 and this insurmountable lead won the game and series for the Cubs.

Rodrigo Lopez was far from perfect in his start at Cincinnati Monday night.  Luckily, he didn't have to be perfect, as the Cubs offense put up 12 runs in support.  Lopez, who has always had problems with allowing home runs, gave up a 502-foot moon shot over the right field bleachers and into the Ohio River to Juan Francisco - the fifth homer of his Major League career.  But Jeff Baker, Starlin Castro, and Ramirez would all homer later as a washed up Dontrelle Willis really struggled.  The 12-8 win gave the Cubs 22 runs in two games.

Unfortunately, the first game of this four-game series in Cincy was the only winner for the Cubs.  In his last start of the year before being shut down by an innings limit, Mike Leake shut down the offense and narrowly outdueled Ryan Dempster in a 2-1 win.  Brandon Phillips, aka 'Dat Dude BP' (his nickname and twitter account), homered in the first.

Ramon Hernandez hit a three-run homer off starter Casey Coleman to open the scoring Wednesday night and the Reds never looked back in a blowout win.  Reds starter Johnny Cueto had to leave early with an injury, but that did nothing to awake the suddenly silent Cubs bats.

Just as suddenly as they fell silent, the bats woke up in the first inning of the series finale.  Marlon Byrd and Carlos Pena both hit two-run homers in the first inning off Homer Bailey.   Then it fell silent once again until the ninth, when the 4-0 lead had turned into a 6-4 deficit.  An exciting rally ensued; Barney drove in his second ninth inning game-tying run of the road trip.  As is typical, the Cubs stranded runners in the 10th and 11th innings before James Russell curiously blew two lefty-on-lefty matchups.  Joey Votto began the 11th with a double and Jay Bruce ended it with a walk-off two-run homer.

I don't know you about you, but this losing stuff ain't sittin' right.  Still.  Many fellow Cubs fans I know have regressed into that 'I've moved on' phase recently, but many times I can call them out on this bluff.  The best hope for a winner right now in Chicago may be the Bears, but losing still hurts.

Including wins in the first two games against the Astros, the Cubs need to go at least 8-2 to match last season's record.  They have clinched a losing season, but can avoid losing 90 games by going at least 6-4.          

Starlin Being Starlin?

Hopefully not.  But this is completely unacceptable in the Major Leagues.  In Sunday's loss to the Cardinals, Starlin Castro was caught on the TV cameras, on ESPN no less, with his back to the infield as a pitch was being thrown.  In the picture here, take a look at shortstop to see what happened.  Castro, who must have been thinking about his at-bat a half-inning before or something, wasn't paying attention for most of the half-inning, walking around and looking at the sky, outfield, and crowd.  On the pitch you see here in the picture, the batter is Daniel Descalso.  If Descalso hit a ball to shortstop it would just roll on into left field and Castro wouldn't have noticed until after.  This is crazy, and I've never seen anything like this at the Major League level.

ESPN analyst Bobby Valentine even said on the TV broadcast that this is totally unacceptable in the Majors.  We've all seen our share of baseball players slacking off- whether it be baserunners sitting down on the bases, outfielders picking grass or infielders kicking up dirt out of boredom.  These mistakes affect seven-year-olds, not 21-year-old MLB All-Stars.

Of course, Castro apologized for his actions and said they will never happen again.  Knowing how much Castro loves the game and wants to play every day, the apology was probably genuine and not a forced grumble.  But whether it will happen again is not the focus; one occurrence of this is one too many.  I don't think Starlin needs to be reminded that his job as an MLB player is one of the most coveted in the world and that focus on every single pitch is mandatory to earn and keep the job.  But he is young and a relaxed guy on the baseball field, and it showed here.

The fact that this happened on national TV has helped it become somewhat of a national news story, although it probably doesn't need to be.  In the long run, however, it could end up a good mistake for him to learn from.  If there is anything negative in Castro's game that scouts can pick up on besides his defense, it's that sometimes he seems a little too relaxed and lackadaisical out there, almost like a Hanley Ramirez.  This incident should make Castro more motivated to focus and prove to the organization and fan base that he can be the face of the franchise for years to come, which is definitely a good thing.

Aramis Ramirez has now said that he thinks too much is being made out of this story.  While that may be true, he should have done something about it himself.  Ramirez has never been a very vocal guy, and while he may be the hottest hitter on the planet right now, he needed to say something during the game Sunday night.  Sure, Ramirez's demeanor on the field comes off as being a lazy bum.  But at least he knows enough to be in ready position each and every pitch.

That was a time for Ramirez to speak up and say something to Castro about it, but didn't.  As a successful veteran and the longest tenured position player on the Cubs, that is part of his duty for his team.  Even though Castro obviously should've been focused, there's a learning process here that should help him mature, especially if his hispanohablante amigo Ramirez is there to help him out.

Road Trip Analysis: Atlanta, Houston

Record: 3-3
Final Record: 54-70

This road trip began like many other for the Cubs, as they were mauled on Friday night in Atlanta.  Dan Uggla extended his hitting streak with two homers, both off Carlos Zambrano.  Chipper Jones, Jose Constanza, and Freddie Freeman also homered off Zambrano, who took out his frustration on Jones by throwing at him twice, hitting him the second time.  The Braves won 10-4.

Zambrano was thrown out and walked out on his team, earning him a 30-day suspension on the rarely-used disqualified list which could mark the end of his Cubs career.  Apparently anger management classes last year didn't hold up, and Zambrano started telling everyone in the clubhouse he was going to retire immediately before he cleaned out his locker and beat it.  Later, calling in on Chicago Tribune Live on CSN, he said he was upset that word of his potential retirement escaped the clubhouse and got to the media.  Either way it was a stupid thing to say so he doesn't have much of a right to be mad.

The Cubs won on Saturday thanks to an array of RBI singles and doubles, but Uggla extended his hitting streak to 33 with a home run.  I was impressed at how the Cubs attacked Derek Lowe, knocking him out of the game after six, allowing ten hits.  Final score was 8-4.

They also won on Sunday 6-5, ending Uggla's hitting streak at 33.  The Braves rocked Matt Garza for four runs in the first four innings, but the Cubs fought back and eventually tied the game on a wild pitch. Although Alex Gonzalez got the Braves the lead back on an error in the next half-inning, Carlos Pena blasted a long two-run homer to take the lead.  With the tying run on second base in the ninth, Carlos Marmol got Martin Prado out to take the series 2-1 from the NL's second-best team.

As shocking as that series win was, I was even more excited for the Cubs to head to Houston to play MLB's worst team and hopefully go for the sweep.  The Cubs should've swept too, but the Astros took two one-run games to sneak out the series win.

Two two-run doubles were enough, barely, to beat the Astros 4-3 on Monday night thanks to a save from Kerry Wood, his first as a Cub since 2008.  The loss for the Astros dropped them to 19-41 at home.  On Tuesday night, the Cubs played a solid game and took a 5-2 lead into the ninth.  Tyler Colvin and Aramis Ramirez both hit homers in the game, but Ramirez's shot will be on highlight reels all season long as it landed on the train tracks above the wall in left field, an estimated distance of over 450 feet.  But what will most be remembered from this game will obviously be Brian Bogusevic's walk-off grand slam off Marmol to win the game 6-5.  I bet the Cubs wish they had used Wood again.  Marmol has this remarkable ability to somehow find a way to lose a game, and showed right here.  Brian Bogusevic?  Really??  And did I mention that this was his second career Major League homer, and his first ever at home?

Casey Coleman gave the Astros the lead in the 4th of Wednesday afternoon's game, and they would never give it back.  The Cubs offense was shut out for four innings by the Astros bullpen, which featured David Carpenter, Sergio Escalona, Fernando Rodriguez, and Mark Melancon, only one of whom has thrown more than 40 innings in the Major Leagues.  I might as well just have named four construction contractors.  Added with Bogusevic, and the Cubs lost a series to a team to a team that will be 50 games under .500 by the end of the year because of five nobodies.  Nice going, guys.

Cub fans should be pleased with their effort in Atlanta because they're not an easy team to face at all.  The important thing was that they scored early to avoid having to battle against the bullpen which is, in my opinion, the most dominant in baseball.  Hardthrowers Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel are two of the most toughest pitchers in the league because everything they throw is hard, hard, and harder.  Kimbrel hasn't allowed a run since June.  The results of the Houston series, however, is pretty much unacceptable.  Marmol found a way to lose then so did the offense the next day.  Although these two events probably didn't directly have anything to do with Jim Hendry's dismissal, it definitely didn't cheer up the franchise's outlook at all.