Cubs Trade Carlos Zambrano; Acquire Chris Volstad

Carlos Zambrano

Earlier this week GM Jed Hoyer finally rid the Cubs organization of Carlos Zambrano in a one-for-one swap with San Diego.  Theo Epstein said a while ago that Zambrano would be given a fair chance to earn his job back in Spring Training, but now he won't get that chance.  Epstein probably didn't think that Hoyer and himself would be able to trade him.  But they did, and the Cubs will receive 25-year-old right-handed starter Chris Volstad in return.  The Cubs will pay $15 of Zambrano's $18 million due in 2012.

Although this move, while wildly uneconomical, was probably the right move for the Cubs, part of me is saddened that the famous antics of the Big Z will no longer grab headlines in Chicago.  Part of the whole deal seemed fitting for the Cubs.  Zambrano playing in Chicago seemed to bring up a punch line.  Failed expectations, dysfunctional play, 100 years without a championship, and now the 'ace' takes swings at the Gatorade cooler -- every year?  It was that teeth-clenching type of frustration at times, but it was relentless entertainment.  Right when you thought he had cleaned up his act, there he was again abusing that poor, innocent energy drink dispenser or barking at Derrek Lee.

Recently it's been easy to forget that he was once a relied-upon ace.  2011 was actually his first season with an ERA over 4.00.  Back in the day, though, he was one of baseball's up-and-coming star pitchers.  At age 22 he broke onto the scene for good with the 2003 dream team Cubs.  He pitched over 200 innings and would again each year until 2007 and won 13 games, a total he would surpass each year until 2008.  He hasn't done either since, instead finding himself in the doghouse, the bullpen, and the disqualified list (a list I didn't know existed in baseball until he made it on) at various times over the past three seasons.  He simply needs a change of scenery.  Finally he gets one.

Chris Volstad

Instead of getting some random single-A prospects with no chance of making it to the bigs, the Cubs get a legit starter with over 100 major league starts under his belt.  His ERA over the past three seasons, each full seasons as a starter, is 4.88.  Not necessarily impressive; that's actually worse than league average.  However, he is still young and has room to improve.  After three seasons in Florida his development appears to have slowed; a change of scenery could end up being very good for him as well.

Standing tall at an intimidating 6'8", Volstad attempts to pound batters inside but it's much more effective on righties.  Lefty batters have been an issue for Volstad since the beginning.  Righties are also a major problem for him when he gets behind in the count.  When behind in the count, Volstad goes to his fastball 74% of the time.  Batters are hitting .310 off it.    His changeup, off which hitters are hitting only .221, is his best pitch but he only throws one 15% of the time.  His put-away pitch as of right now is a decent curveball but I hope new pitching coach Chris Bosio helps him mix in the changeup more.  That would also make the fastball more effective.

I'm excited to see what Volstad will do.  There's much more room for improvement with him than Zambrano at this point.  It's been a fun decade with the Z, but this was the right opportunity.  In Volstad I'm very pleased with the return.  Don't stop now, Jed and Theo.  

Big Z's Cubs Future

Carlos Zambrano in Atlanta, right after he was thrown out
for throwing at Braves 3B Chipper Jones.

Whether or not he pitches for the Cubs again isn't the real question


The latest blowup by Carlos Zambrano came a year after he took anger management classes as a result of his blowup before that.  Locating his pitches effectively when he returned, Zambrano went 8-0 to finish the season, which had Cubs fans thinking the man had finally reinvented himself.  Instead, he's been inconsistent and generally mediocre all season long, including a dismal strikeout rate.  He now finds himself on the 30-day disqualified list with no pay (not that he needs any) and his future with the Cubs is in jeopardy.  But the real question is, how will he be remembered by the fan base that made him what he is now?

Zambrano vs. Michael Barrett, 2007.

Zambrano's history of emotional temper tantrums goes way back.  His most notable incidents include numerous outbursts in 2006, his dugout brawl with catcher Michael Barrett at Wrigley in 2007, his 2008 attack on the Gatorade cooler at Dodger Stadium after giving up a three-run homer to Matt Kemp, his 2009 performance at Wrigley against Pittsburgh where, after being thrown out, he threw out an umpire then fired a ball from home plate to deep left field, his dugout yelling match with first baseman Derrek Lee over Lee not diving for a ball in 2010 at The Cell, and finally throwing at Chipper Jones twice in the same at-bat after giving up back-to-back homers and five homers in the game.

Zambrano vs. Derrek Lee, 2010.

Throughout all of this, Big Z has actually been a great pitcher over his 11 year career, all with the Cubs.  A homegrown prospect out of Venezuela, he asserted himself into the rotation as a 22-year-old on the 2003 team with a 3.11 ERA.  Eventually he became the ace for most of the mid-2000s despite his emotional problems.  His career record today stands at 125-81 with a 3.60 ERA.  Excellent for a homegrown prospect, no?  But of course, Cubs fans don't think of him in this way.  Instead, we wonder what could have been if he was able to control his problems at a young age.  Could Zambrano have won 20 games and/or a Cy Young?  Most definitely.

The daily warmup ritual with 5'7" Mike Fontenot.

If Zambrano pitches for the Cubs again, I think the fan base would get over this incident to some degree, just like they have all the incidents past.  However Tom Ricketts said on the ESPN broadcast on Sunday night that he has "a hard time seeing that happening," and with good reason.  If Zambrano never pitches in a Cubs uniform again, he will be remembered in a foggy cloud of potential and frustration.  I hope it's the first option.

Once he clears the 30-day disqualified list, I hope the Cubs let him back into the rotation for probably three or four starts, which is all that will be left in the season.  The ending in Atlanta is too abrupt for a veteran like Z, and I think it would be good for the fans and team to let him have one last (peaceful) goodbye before the team moves on.  This offseason, the new GM will probably come in with a no-tolerance-for-misbehavior attitude, and show it off by dumping Zambrano.  Whether this means releasing him or miraculously finding a taker in the trade market, the end will probably come at the end of this season for the big guy.

While I understand the anger fellow Cubbie fans have felt at Zambrano for all of these years of inconsistencies and questionable decisions, I know I'll be one who misses him for many reasons.  The awkward kill-the-ball swing that got him 23 career homers.  Zambrano pinch-hitting at Wrigley to a standing ovation out of entertainment and laughter.  The pointing to the sky coming off the mound which never seemed to help his anger issues.  Firing fastballs past the game's best hitters pack in the old days.  Breaking bats over his knee.  The bunt singles.  The traditional whack-a-mole warmup routine with Mike Fontenot.  The obscure, Red Bull-influenced injuries.  His insistence on wearing the blue alternate jerseys.  Even watching his BP sessions.  The overall energy and character that made the Big Z truly earn himself a place in Cubs history, for bad or (usually) good reasons.  And of course, the no-hitter against the hurricane-relocated Astros in Milwaukee.  Even if they drove us crazy mad, thanks for the good (and bad) times, Carlos.

A great teammate for the most part, smiles and jokes
were always in abundance during a day at the office for Z. 

  

Road Trip Analysis: Atlanta, Houston

Record: 3-3
Final Record: 54-70

This road trip began like many other for the Cubs, as they were mauled on Friday night in Atlanta.  Dan Uggla extended his hitting streak with two homers, both off Carlos Zambrano.  Chipper Jones, Jose Constanza, and Freddie Freeman also homered off Zambrano, who took out his frustration on Jones by throwing at him twice, hitting him the second time.  The Braves won 10-4.

Zambrano was thrown out and walked out on his team, earning him a 30-day suspension on the rarely-used disqualified list which could mark the end of his Cubs career.  Apparently anger management classes last year didn't hold up, and Zambrano started telling everyone in the clubhouse he was going to retire immediately before he cleaned out his locker and beat it.  Later, calling in on Chicago Tribune Live on CSN, he said he was upset that word of his potential retirement escaped the clubhouse and got to the media.  Either way it was a stupid thing to say so he doesn't have much of a right to be mad.

The Cubs won on Saturday thanks to an array of RBI singles and doubles, but Uggla extended his hitting streak to 33 with a home run.  I was impressed at how the Cubs attacked Derek Lowe, knocking him out of the game after six, allowing ten hits.  Final score was 8-4.

They also won on Sunday 6-5, ending Uggla's hitting streak at 33.  The Braves rocked Matt Garza for four runs in the first four innings, but the Cubs fought back and eventually tied the game on a wild pitch. Although Alex Gonzalez got the Braves the lead back on an error in the next half-inning, Carlos Pena blasted a long two-run homer to take the lead.  With the tying run on second base in the ninth, Carlos Marmol got Martin Prado out to take the series 2-1 from the NL's second-best team.

As shocking as that series win was, I was even more excited for the Cubs to head to Houston to play MLB's worst team and hopefully go for the sweep.  The Cubs should've swept too, but the Astros took two one-run games to sneak out the series win.

Two two-run doubles were enough, barely, to beat the Astros 4-3 on Monday night thanks to a save from Kerry Wood, his first as a Cub since 2008.  The loss for the Astros dropped them to 19-41 at home.  On Tuesday night, the Cubs played a solid game and took a 5-2 lead into the ninth.  Tyler Colvin and Aramis Ramirez both hit homers in the game, but Ramirez's shot will be on highlight reels all season long as it landed on the train tracks above the wall in left field, an estimated distance of over 450 feet.  But what will most be remembered from this game will obviously be Brian Bogusevic's walk-off grand slam off Marmol to win the game 6-5.  I bet the Cubs wish they had used Wood again.  Marmol has this remarkable ability to somehow find a way to lose a game, and showed right here.  Brian Bogusevic?  Really??  And did I mention that this was his second career Major League homer, and his first ever at home?

Casey Coleman gave the Astros the lead in the 4th of Wednesday afternoon's game, and they would never give it back.  The Cubs offense was shut out for four innings by the Astros bullpen, which featured David Carpenter, Sergio Escalona, Fernando Rodriguez, and Mark Melancon, only one of whom has thrown more than 40 innings in the Major Leagues.  I might as well just have named four construction contractors.  Added with Bogusevic, and the Cubs lost a series to a team to a team that will be 50 games under .500 by the end of the year because of five nobodies.  Nice going, guys.

Cub fans should be pleased with their effort in Atlanta because they're not an easy team to face at all.  The important thing was that they scored early to avoid having to battle against the bullpen which is, in my opinion, the most dominant in baseball.  Hardthrowers Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel are two of the most toughest pitchers in the league because everything they throw is hard, hard, and harder.  Kimbrel hasn't allowed a run since June.  The results of the Houston series, however, is pretty much unacceptable.  Marmol found a way to lose then so did the offense the next day.  Although these two events probably didn't directly have anything to do with Jim Hendry's dismissal, it definitely didn't cheer up the franchise's outlook at all.

Homestand Analysis: Cincinnati, Washington

Record: 4-2
Final Record: 51-67

Fresh off that major sweepage in the Steel City, the Cubs returned home to face a reeling Cincinnati team that had pretty much knocked themselves out of postseason contention.  The underperforming Reds, expected by many to battle the Cardinals and Brewers for the division all season long, came into Friday's game at 57-61 and 10 games behind division-leading Milwaukee.  The Cubs wouldn't make it any easier for them either, as the Cubs, or Tony Campana rather, motored past the Reds in a 4-3 win to open the series.

Campana's first-inning inside-the-park-homer, which also scored Starlin Castro, was the first home run of his career.  In fact I remember Len and Bob once remarking on a broadcast that it was as likely that Campana's first homer came in the park as it was over the wall.  It was just an amazing sight to behold and one of the most exciting plays in baseball, although near the end there was little doubt the little guy would make it.  The left fielder was a first baseman named Yonder Alonso who apparently hadn't adapted well to his temporary position, as he ran into the wall and let the ball skip right past him.

Tyler Colvin homered an inning later to make it 3-0.  Ryan Dempster ran into a bit of trouble in the 4th, allowing two runs, but the Reds never got the lead back despite a late homer by Ramon Hernandez which cut the lead to one.  Carlos Marmol saved the win, but Campana's clutch catch in the center field ivy (Sam Fuld-style) robbing Brandon Phillips of extra bases gets the real save.  A solid, solid victory.

On Saturday, the Cubs beat the Reds in blowout fashion.  Carlos Zambrano earned his ninth win of the season which could be his last win as a Cub.  Zambrano homered, Castro picked up four RBIs, and Carlos Pena picked up three in the 11-4 win.  On Sunday, Sean Marshall's midseason slump appeared to pack in one last stand as Marshall blew a one-run lead in the 8th, allowing the Reds to win 8-7.  The win snapped the Cubs' season-high seven-game winning streak.

Following the Monday rainout, the Cubs played the first of three against Chien-Ming Wang and the Nationals on Tuesday.  Wang stymied the Cubs offense, allowing hardly any baserunners and no runs while Matt Garza on the other side continued to receive the world's worst run support.  This one of Wang's first few starts in over two years, so the effort by the Cubs offense is pretty disappointing.  Golden boy Castro homered in the 8th, but the rest of the lineup stayed quiet in the 3-1 loss.

Batboy?  Nope, the dude in the middle is
the scrawny little Campana.

Homers by Reed Johnson, Geovany Soto, and Alfonso Soriano were enough to put away the Nats on Wednesday, thanks to a solid start by Rodrigo Lopez.  Although Lopez is just a short-term fix for this season's lack of rotation depth, it's good to see the Cubs be able to win with him on the mound.

Dempster again had great stuff in his Thursday start against the Reds, a 1-1 tie until homers by Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena made it 4-1.  A late rally nearly tied the game for the Reds, but a huge clutch performance by Carlos Marmol got the Cubs their third series win in a row and left them 9-2 in their last 11 home games.  Rick Ankiel hit an all-or-nothing blast to deep center that was caught near the warning track with the bases loaded and everything on the line with two outs in the 9th, giving the Cubs the win.

The phrase 'home cookin'' hasn't really applied to the Cubs this year or the last, but their 'road cookin'' in Pittsburgh carried over and kept on rolling back to Wrigley anyway.  This homestand just had a fun, positive feel to it which made it so fun to watch.  MVP honors goes to Dempster, who gave the Cubs everything in two very solid starts.  After the tough summer this has been for the Cubs and their fans, it's about time for some winning.  And according to Mike Quade, this could still be the year!

Homestand Analysis: Colorado, San Francisco, Chicago (AL)

Record: 4-4
Final Record: 35-50

Against the Rockies, the Cubs finally got their first series sweep of the season.  Unfortunately, it was a one-game series, as in a makeup game for the rainout back in April.  This means the Cubs have yet to sweep a three-game series, and also haven't even won three in a row.  But play later in the week was encouraging for the Cubs.

Behind two homers each by Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena, the Cubs rolled past the Rockies 7-3.  The four homers would be the first four of 12 homers on the eight-game homestand.  Something was definitely in the water, as even backup Koyie Hill added one to the tally.  The annual weather swing has struck Wrigley, with that summer wind blowing out to the bleachers.

In the Colorado game, starter Matt Garza gave up a deep fly ball to left field by Carlos Gonzalez.  Alfonso Soriano went back to the track at his typical, lackadaisical pace.  Soriano eventually just pulled up and stopped, facing the wall, waiting for the ball to drop.  Garza, standing on the mound and thinking Soriano couldn't see the ball, raised his arms and said, "What are you doing?!"  Sure enough, the ball landed in the bleachers for a home run.  Garza, like most of the rest of the players, was shocked.  This evidence of the bandbox that Wrigley Field becomes in the summer has to come as a big surprise to the newcomers like Garza, who thought this ball would be a routine flyout.

The jetstream helped the Cubs for the rest of the homestand.  Ramirez hit six homers on it, en route to a well-deserved National League Player of the Week award.  But even that couldn't help the Cubs from looking absolutely dreadful in the doubleheader against the Giants on last Tuesday.  The Cubs were blown out by baseball's worst offense, reminiscent of their similar drubbing of the Cubs at Wrigley Field last year.  For the Cubs, Doug Davis and Rodrigo Lopez started the two games and the results are history.

Thankfully, the Cubs salvaged the last two games in impressive fashion.  A 1-0 ninth inning lead was blown by Carlos Marmol, but Ramirez singled home the winning run just a half-inning later on Wednesday night.

On Thursday afternoon, the Cubs put together one of their most complete wins since 2008.  Marcos Mateo pitched five incredible innings of relief after Carlos Zambrano's injury allowed him just one inning.  Ramirez erased a 1-0 deficit on a 95 mph fastball off Giants closer Brian Wilson.  Darwin Barney hit a huge clutch double in the 13th inning to tie the game at two after the Giants took the lead in the top half.  Geovany Soto stepped up and, two pitches later, ended the game with a three-run walk-off homer that was one of the most amazing moments the Cubs have had in the last decade.  The game was intense throughout and the Cubs trailed twice facing a loss, coming back both times.

In their millionth attempt to win a third game in a row, the Cubs were again denied, this time by the White Sox.  The Cubs didn't commit any errors on Friday in the series opener, according to the box score.  A mental error by manager Mike Quade cost the Cubs the lead in a tie game.  Quade has been sharply criticized this season for leaving in starters too long, and although much of this criticism is unfair, there's a case for this game to be examined.  Randy Wells gave up the two-run lead he had in the seventh, increasing his runs allowed total to four.  After Alex Rios reached base, Quade allowed Wells to pitch to Juan Pierre who lined a two-run triple to gave the Sox a lead they wouldn't give back.  Quade's mental error wasn't something major on his part, but I believe it was just the wrong decision.

A blown call at second base on a double play ball prevented the Cubs from tying Saturday's game at one, and the Cubs lost 1-0.  Garza threw a complete game despite losing, a sign I love to see.  Back in the Lou Piniella days, Garza would've been yanked after eight regardless of his low pitch count and the fact that his performance had earned him another inning.  Garza has been the beneficiary of some serious bad luck this season, and his value to the team has been far underrated thus far.

The Cubs finally got a win on Sunday, which salvages all Cubs fans everywhere from having to hear those Sox fans yappin' their yappers about how they swept us in our own park, yadda yadda yadda.  Thank God.  A Starlin Castro RBI triple and Ramirez two-run homer built a small lead, and although Kerry Wood allowed the bases loaded in the 8th, the Cubs escaped, avoiding the sweep.  The Sox now lead the Crosstown Series 12-6 since 2009.

On this homestand, Cubs pitchers really started throwing strikes.  In the case of Wells, Lopez, and Davis, who was released after his latest shellacking, this tactic didn't work so well.  In the case of Garza and Ryan Dempster, this worked very well.  Keeping a lower pitch count should allow the starters to go later in games, which is something the Cubs need.  Garza's performance on Saturday was incredible; but not as incredible as the fact that he lost.    

Crosstown Showdown: Cubs 6, White Sox 3

Three key Cubs step up big in win over streaking Sox

CHC leads 1-0

Last night the Cubs and Sox met for the first of six games this season.  The news coming up to game time and in the 1st inning was all about Carlos Zambrano and his temper tantrum last season at The Cell, which nearly led to him being kicked off the team.  But a different Zambrano emerged, despite another bad first inning.  He gave up three in that first inning before calming down and staying as cool as the other side of the pillow for most of the game.  Through 8 innings, Zambrano allowed only those three runs.

The blow up actually came from the other side as Ozzie Guillen was ejected arguing a fair or foul call on home plate.  These disputes are rare because such an instance was very rare but nonetheless the umpire called Alexei Ramirez out after Geovany Soto tagged him with the ball which the ump thought he had picked up off home plate.  The Sox claimed the ball had rolled off and Soto grabbed it in foul territory.  Guillen, in his frustration, kicked Soto's catcher's mask towards his own dugout, prompting eruptions of laughter and hysteria from the Cubs dugout.  Even Soto, standing near Guillen behind home plate, pointed and laughed along with his teammates.

The three keys to winning the game for the Cubs were Zambrano, Starlin Castro, and Carlos Pena.  Castro knocked in the first three runs with a two-RBI single and a solo homer, and Pena gave the Cubs the lead for good with a big three-run homer to the right field bleachers off a stumbling Gavin Floyd.

Carlos Marmol, who puts the fire in fireman, aka closer, gave up singles to catcher A.J. Pierzynski and center fielder Alex Rios just to give Cubs fans a headache before retiring Mark Teahen and left fielder Juan Pierre.

This win was huge in my opinion.  It proved that the Cubs' improved competitive play against the Yankees wasn't a fluke, and that they can hang around with an American League team.  Also, the current Chicago fad of hating on the Cubs takes a big hit with every win they get over the White Sox.  It's as if the bandwagon shrinks, if even just a little.

Treading Water

After the first two and a half weeks of baseball, the Cubs seem to be putting forth about the amount of success as last year's group.  With today's loss to the Rockies, the Cubs fall back under .500 again to 7-8, but now return home for a nice nine-game homestand.  Pitching has not been a great strength of the Cubs, and the rotation especially has underperformed quite a bit.  Carlos Zambrano, Matt Garza, and Ryan Dempster have all not pitched well really at all this season.  The injuries to Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner have hurt as well as James Russell was slammed his first start and Casey Coleman has had mixed results.

The bullpen, not including today's performance by Marcos Mateo, has been very good in general.  Carlos Marmol thankfully hasn't thrown out his shoulder yet (knock on wood), which is a concern I have for him just about every time he throws the baseball.  But the rotation has the Cubs playing more high-scoring games than usual.  The Cubs offense has scored 4.5 runs per game this season, and that should be enough to win with the rotation we have.  But Dempster, Zambrano, and Garza have ERAs of 6.30, 6.11, and 6.27, respectively.  Come on now guys, that's no way to run a railroad.

But the offense cannot go unnoticed.  Although they are averaging 4.5 runs a game which is near league average and only a bit above the 4.2 from last year, the Cubs are fourth in MLB in batting average, and fifth in hits.  We can owe plenty of those hits to a certain Starlin Castro, who as of Sunday night led baseball in hits with 28.  In my wanna-be highly-educated fan opinion, Castro is unbelievable.  Watching him out there is like watching a 12-year-old in park district game.  He just comes to play the game and nothing else, just trying to have fun.  It almost seems like he doesn't even feel the pressures and expectations of playing in the bigs, not to mention with all of the hype around him and the Cubs as a franchise and Chicago as a city.  Today watching the Cubs-Rockies game, I watched him bend over the plate to go get a ball well off the plate and ground it to Todd Helton at first base.  Len Kasper picked up on his anger with himself over becoming overanxious on the broadcast.  And after the inning ended and the camera was on him right before commercial, he swung up his helmet as if he was about to slam it in frustration.  This from a guy with a .418 batting average, four hits just the night before, and Chicago status as a fan favorite.

Although fielding has been an issue with this team so far as well, there's been an improvement over last year's performance and Castro has gotten much better so far, making better plays quicker despite two errors.  Basically, this team is waiting on the starting pitching.  It's not time to sound the alarm on the Garza trade yet, but he should know that that is exactly what will happen unless he starts putting up numbers and soon.  The poor performances from Zambrano and Dempster are surprising, to be honest, despite all the Zambrano haters who may have correctly pegged his successful comeback last season as a fluke.  Dempster's success seemed too easy last season, and it's finally catching up to him.  So far I've seen a whole bunch of - to use a Bob Brenly term here meaning a slider that spins but doesn't move hardly at all - cement mixers in the low 80s left high in the zone, right where hitters can get at them.  Hopefully he'll improve, because we need it.

NOTE: There's been some confusion on the results of the quiz giveaway from a few weeks ago.  I apologize for not making this clearer, but if you did win the free app then they would have replied in an email with the code to get the app free.  If you did not get this email, unfortunately you didn't win.  Thanks to all participants, I have deemed this partnership a success.  There may be future similar opportunities, so stay tuned.

Scouting Report on 2011 Cubs

The following is a report on the 2011 Cubs by an anonymous baseball expert contacted by Sporting News.

"First baseman's Carlos Pena's lefthanded bat adds to the offensive balance, but this team still has enough holes to prevent it from winning.  I expect the Cubs to be far more competitive than last season, but they don't have a particularly strong rotation and they have a big offensive hole at second base.  This team may go as afar as Carlos Zambrano takes it.  That's a little unsettling base on Big Z's injury problems early last season.  He's also capable of becoming a distraction.
"(Marlon) Byrd, (Alfonso) Soriano, (Tyler) Colvin and (Kosuke) Fukudome offer depth in the outfield.  Starlin Castro is going to be an outstanding player, I believe.  Is Blake DeWitt the answer at second?  I don't know.  And the Cubs probably don't, either.
"The Cubs used to roll out a dominant rotation.  They can't say that anymore.  You don't know what you're going to get out of many of these guys. ... To me, the Cubs are missing another anchor for the rotation."

This guy is absolutely right on a few things, and a little out of date on some others.  But I couldn't agree more with his point about the offensive hole at second base, which will be manned by a platoon between Blake DeWitt, Jeff Baker, and even a bit of Darwin Barney.  The future of second base for the Cubs is Barney.  He's a career .286 hitter in the minors and a terrific contact hitter.  And although he isn't ready for the starting job to break camp this season, I think he will steal the job by the end of summer or Spring Training next year.  Not only is that a compliment to his talents, it speaks towards the Cubs' lack of quality players there.  DeWitt is a career .259 hitter with no speed and little power, although he too is a decent contact hitter.  Baker can only hit lefties, and even then he isn't anything special.  How a guy with his talent level plays in the Majors I don't understand.  So while Barney might hit for a good average, the Cubs will have to go through a season of DeWitt and Baker.

Just a note about this report is that it was written before the Cubs acquired Matt Garza.  That acquisition probably would have drastically changed this report.  The part where the scout says, "the Cubs used to roll out a dominant rotation.  They can't say that anymore," is no longer valid.  First of all, the Cubs haven't rolled out a dominant rotation since 2008.  Second of all, the current rotation isn't quite dominant, but is the second best in the division behind on Milwaukee's.  When he says, "[about Zambrano] he's also capable of being a distraction," he's making a serious understatement.  For the last few years, Zambrano has been a ticking time bomb that goes off at some point in summer.  But the powers of anger management will be put to the test this summer, and we could see a sane Carlos for once.

Overall, the scout pegs them somewhat accurately.  He thinks "this team still has enough holes to prevent it from winning," but that's probably a pessimistic look at this team.  With bad defense, no speed, a decent bullpen, average offense and an above average rotation, I see the Cubs finishing no worse than .500 and giving Milwaukee and Cincinnati a run for their money in this weak division.

2011 Profiles: Carlos Zambrano

Which Carlos Zambrano shows up to play?


Writer's Take: This is probably the fourth consecutive Spring Training in which this has been the main question with Zambrano.  In past years, it's been the exact same situation every year.  In 2007, 2008, and 2009, Zambrano would go on hot streaks where he could be as dominating as any pitcher in the league with his mix of a great fastball and decent offspeed pitches (July 2007: 5-1, 1.38 ERA in 39 innings).  But he would also suffer months in which he struggled every start (August 2007: 0-4, 7.02 ERA in 29.1 innings), leading to him getting angry and taking it out on umpires, teammates, and/or assorted dugout equipment (just ask the poor Gatorade dispensers at Dodger Stadium and Wrigley Field).  His inconsistency and temper flares have frustrated Cubs management again and again.

In 2010, something was finally done about it.  Zambrano had already been relegated to the bullpen due to ineffectiveness out of the rotation after just four starts when the Cubs took action.  After his annual blow up of the year, a one-sided shouting match in late June with Derrek Lee in dugout of US Cellular Field after Lee didn't dive for a base hit that ended up contributing to a three-run homer, Zambrano was placed on the restricted list.  He wouldn't pitch again until over a month later in Colorado.  But he made it back in to the rotation on August 9th, and turned many heads with his play.  He went 8-0 in 11 starts after he returned with a 1.41 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 70.1 innings.  He did walk 40, but his control was much better than it had been in quite some time.

Scouts picked up on his control improvements, and labeled it in a way that hadn't been thought possible with Zambrano.  For probably the first time since 2006, Zambrano was actually locating pitches and putting his gameplan around that.  From 2007 to the first half of 2010, he had been living on his power fastball and dropping in offspeed pitches, doing just enough to fool batters.  He was the kind of pitcher who made the catcher's glove move considerably on every pitch, but it was okay because he had enough pure stuff to make up for it.  At 29 years old in 2010, his fastball stopped hitting 94 and 95 mph and would top out around 91 or 92 most days.  So he improvised.  He transformed from "a thrower into a pitcher" in one scout's words.  He's less of a strikeout pitcher than he once was, but getting ground balls leaves less risk for hits than high challenging fastballs.  So while Carlos Zambrano has been more of a perennial question mark than any player not named Mark Prior, Zambrano's mix of newfound anger management expertise and newfound control-focused pitching skills should make him a strong #2 starter for the Cubs.

Ideal Production: 13-15 wins, sub-4.00 ERA, sub-4 BB/9 and 7 K/9.

Expert Opinion: Bruce Levine of espnchicago.com wrote an article on Zambrano's tutoring of fellow Venezuelan Carlos Silva.  Zambrano's tutoring is probably gaining him respect in the Cubs clubhouse.  Plus, he's probably learning a bit himself from his teammate.

 

2011 Cubs: Bold Predictions

This season's edition of the Cubs should be an interesting one.  With this season's fate to be most likely decided upon the play of unpredictable young players, it could really go anywhere.  I think these Cubs could win 90 games; I also think they could lose 100.  But the difficulty of these predictions is what makes them fun; one must visualize their own results, play it out in their own mind.  When I see these Cubs, here's what I see.  The following ten predictions, some more realistic than others, are in no particular order.

1. Starlin Castro will steal 25 bases.
Castro, known for his raw speed, didn't have much luck stealing bases at the Major League level in 2010.  Being thrown out eight out of 18 tries and being picked off multiple times, it was clear Castro has some work to do when it comes to knowing when to run and how to recognize pitcher pickoff moves.  This is something Mike Quade and his staff will surely work on in Spring Training, however, because Castro's speed may be the only real speed on this team.

2. The 2011 season will be Marlon Byrd's last as a Cub.
Byrd is known for his great clubhouse chemistry and attitude towards the game, and his fielding range in center field is outstretched by very few.  Clearly this sets a great example for young teams looking for a leader.  And although Byrd's contract with the Cubs runs through 2012, I see him being traded in most scenarios the Cubs could run into this season.  If the Cubs are well out of contention, he will be dealt at the deadline in July.  If the Cubs hang around and hover near .500, he will last the season but be traded in the offseason to beef up the pitching or veterans in the field.  If the Cubs win the division and play very well all season long, he will probably stick around.  But as we know, that's highly unlikely.  Why would the Cubs want to trade Byrd?  Because center fielder Brett Jackson, the Cubs' 2009 1st Round Draft Pick, is rapidly on his way towards the Majors.  Jackson's five tool ability makes him the perfect fit for the center field at Wrigley Field.  There probably isn't room for both Jackson and Byrd in this town.

3. Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, and Matt Garza will combine for 45 wins.
In the rotation for a full season barring injury, all three are locks for 10 wins.  Garza will be moving to the National League and out of the hitter-happy AL East, meaning he should only get better.  Considering he already wins 15 games in that AL East, there's no reason why he shouldn't in the NL Central.  Ryan Dempster also had a 15-win season in 2010, his first since 2008 but only the third in his career.  Dempster has never had a stretch of three seasons as dominant as the last three in his career, and actually posted a career high in K/9 innings at his 2010 age of 33.  He should be able to get there.  Carlos Zambrano for 15 wins?  I know it sounds like a stretch.  But Zambrano learned how to pitch last season; like actually learned to locate.  His fastball might top out at 90mph on a given night, but unlike earlier years, he can still win with that. Keep that in mind heading into this season, and I see these three being an a-okay trio at the top of the rotation.

4. The 2012 Cubs will make the playoffs.
It's as simple as that.  Although Carlos Pena is a free agent after 2011, this could mean the Cubs will want him back on a long term deal or, more likely, the Cubs will go after free agent Prince Fielder.  Either move should give the Cubs enough to contend in 2012.  2009 1st Round Draft Pick Brett Jackson should be in the Majors at some point in 2012, and he will be a special player who should make an impact immediately.  Another year of progression for Starlin Castro, who should be a star by then, will also help.  The Cubs' strong farm system, still strong despite dealing three of its top ten prospects to Tampa Bay in the Garza trade, has many pieces that will be contributing soon.

5. When the Cubs jokingly said they would have to retaliate by throwing at Cardinals shortstop Ryan Theriot for his criticism of the Cubs, they weren't kidding.
The scrappy Theriot isn't hard to miss, but his radio appearance on a St. Louis radio show was.  Theriot, just sucking up to Cardinals fans upon arrival, said that it felt great to "finally be on the right side" of the Cubs-Cardinals rivalry.  While it was no specific attack on the Cubs, Cubs players took offense to it.  Mike Quade is going to get his squad more emotionally pumped than Lou Piniella did, and retaliation to Theriot's comments could be an excuse for these Cubs to give the Cardinals a wake-up call and send a message that it isn't just St. Louis and Cincinnati for the division title.

6. By a wide margin, Kosuke Fukudome will lead the lead in bench warming, even if he is traded at the deadline. 
Tyler Colvin didn't show us all of his potential in 2010 and became less effective at the plate as the season went on.  Colvin will continue to develop and have an even better season in 2011.  While Fukudome can get on base, this is pretty much all he offers offensively.  That is a highly-regarded trait at the Trade Deadline, however, so he could be moved for his defense and on-base percentage.  Colvin's play will demand starting everyday while Reed Johnson actually offers more defensively than Fukudome does, making Fukudome dispensable.

7. These Cubs will prove that they actually do have emotions, and will show them.
This ties in to #5 as well.  The 2010 Cubs, for most of the season, appeared to be many of the 'living dead'.  The Cubs were on pace to lose well over 90 games, and yet with the exception of Carlos Zambrano there was no frustration to be seen on or off the field from the players.  This showed the fan base that the players didn't care enough, and the fans responded by not coming to games.

8. The current tandem at second base, Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker, will fail.  Neither will be starting at second at the end of this season.
It's already clear that second base will be a major offensive weakness for the Cubs, and two below average hitters won't cut it.  The plan is to play DeWitt against righties, Baker against lefties.  It won't work because DeWitt can't hit enough to sustain a starting job (or platoon for that matter) and Baker's power contributions probably will be few and far between.  For a hitter like Baker who can hit for power when he gets in a roll, it's hard to build an base of consistency when you play around every other day but could go five days without playing.
 
9. You will have a sudden urge to splurge for that $15 replica helmet stuffed to the brim with loaded nachos.
See?  Your mouth is watering already.  Whether the Cubs are winning or not, there's nothing like a nice distraction.  The food options at Wrigley Field are, slowly, getting better.  And if you haven't tried this monster bowl yet, do it just once.  It's more experience than food, and hey, it's a darn good conversation starter.

10. The Cubs will finish at .500 or above, but miss the playoffs. 
The Cubs have talent there; the key will be getting a swagger back.  The whole 'Sweet Lou' and 'It's Gonna Happen' swagger of 2008 took a huge hit with the playoff loss to the Dodgers and was gone after a depressing 2009 season.  There was little to no swagger of the 2010 Cubs and this is something every winning team needs.  These Cubs will be younger than teams before, and young players bring energy.  This energy could by what the Cubs are fueled by.  The talent the Cubs do have is not stronger than that of the Reds, Cardinals, or even Brewers.  But we haven't seen the potential of hardly any of the prospects yet, and these Cubs could go anywhere.  If I have to make a prediction, I say they're a .500 team.

Cubs Acquire Matt Garza

Although the big trade for Matt Garza is not yet official and the details have yet to be released, the deal already looks like quite the impressive one for Cubs GM Jim Hendry.  The Cubs are sending catcher Robinson Chirinos, starting pitcher Chris Archer, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee (photo, left), outfielder Brandon Guyer, and outfielder Sam Fuld for Matt Garza, outfielder Fernando Perez, and an unknown Minor League pitcher whose name should be released soon.  In David Kaplan's article on Comcast SportsNet Chicago's website, he includes quotes from some experts on the potential results of the deal.

"Chris Archer is a very good prospect with excellent upside. Lee, Guyer, Chirinos are all nice players. Sam Fuld is a journeyman. Garza has a chance to be a No. 1 starter. I like the deal from a Chicago perspective a lot," says Jim Kallis, a Minor League expert of Baseball America.


 "The Cubs gave up some good players and depth, but did not give up any elite stars. Garza is 27-years-old, is injury free and has the potential to be a No. 1 starter. Plus, you have him under cost control for three years. That's a very impressive trade by Jim Hendry," says Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus.


Garza has a lot of upside because many baseball experts have him becoming a top of the rotation ace, a guy who could win you 15 games especially now that he's in the National League and most of the hitters haven't seen him before.  Traditionally, when a batter and pitcher face for the first time, the pitcher has the advantage because even if the batter, for example, likes the ball up and in, then the pitcher can do his homework and change his strategy before the game and the hitter has to make adjustments in real time.  The pitcher can change his tendencies and locations to each hitter, while the hitter has to hit although the pitcher already knows where he struggles and will most definitely pitch there.  


In 2011, the top three of the Cubs rotation look great as of now.  With Ryan Dempster as the ace, Matt Garza following Dempster and Carlos Zambrano following Garza, the trio should produce 40 wins.  Dempster is and Garza are, barring injury, locks for 10 wins and Zambrano, of course assuming he controls his anger this season, could do the same.  It seems like we were in the same position with Zambrano as we were last season: we knew that if he could control his emotions then he could be the ace he used to be.  This offseason, however, there is a distinct difference.  Towards the end of 2009, his velocity fell and his fastball seemed flat compared to his former, hard throwing self.  Towards the end of 2010, his velocity was still down but he was winning games because he learned how to locate.  During Zambrano's 8-0 run late last season after returning from anger management, he could be seen locating his pitches where he hadn't before and with more consistency than ever.  Zambrano appears more prepared to win next season, and now won't be dependent on his velocity.  So he should be more reliable in 2011.  Dempster is as reliable as anybody and Garza has been injury and major slump free his whole career.  Right now on the North Side, things look good. 

Is Matt Garza Worth It?

Ben Nicholson-Smith of mlbtr.com reports that GM Jim Hendry is trying very hard for Matt Garza in a deal that would send Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Chris Archer, and Brandon Guyer.  Garza is 42-44 in his career with a 3.97 career ERA, playing his career with the Twins and Rays.  He is 27 and has pitched 592.1 innings over the last three years, including at least 200 in the last two.  Garza will be an innings eater no matter where he goes but could become even better with the possible move to the National League, especially moving out of the powerful AL East.  There's no doubt that he is a great pitcher and could win 15 games, and is exactly the kind of guy the Cubs need, but he comes at a high price.

As I said yesterday about a possible trade for B.J. Upton, Chris Archer is the top pitching prospect in the Cubs organization.  If we are able to get Garza, Archer could be a guy we no longer need.  Hak-Ju Lee, a man I called the Korean Jose Reyes before the 2010 season, has fantastic speed and has shown it over the last two seasons.  He is the guy I would be most concerned about parting with; he could be a breakout player down the road.  But the fact is that the Rays have Reid Brignac at shortstop after trading away Jason Bartlett, and Brignac will never be a starting infielder in his career.  Lee is the speed that the Cubs need in the future, and trading him would add a lot of risk that he would burn us and become a star.  Guyer ripped through AA ball hitting a ridiculous .344 with 13 homers and 58 RBI in 102 games.  Guyer plays all three outfield positions, but that doesn't necessarily help his chances of making the Major League version of the Cubs.  He also stole 30 bases in 2010 and is a future 20/20 talent in the Majors.  But the Cubs have Tyler Colvin, Marlon Byrd, Alfonso Soriano, and Kosuke Fukudome in the outfield rotation and the Cubs would not want Guyer sitting on the bench playing every once in a while.  None of those four outfielders appear to be going anywhere soon, so Guyer is out of luck.  He's like Tyler Colvin, but with a lot of speed.  I think the Cubs would love to have him, but there's not room so he should be traded.  Chirinos isn't a youngster anymore at 27, an average hitting catcher who isn't anything special.  The Cubs don't have a necessity for him.

To the Cubs:
SP Matt Garza

To the Rays:
SP Chris Archer
SS Hak-Ju Lee
OF Brandon Guyer
C Robinson Chirinos

The Verdict: Pull the trigger.  If the Cubs acquire Matt Garza, this should be a winning season and the NL Central should be weak in 2011, giving the Cubs a shot at the division title.  Garza would give the Cubs a rotation of Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells, and Tom Gorzelanny or Carlos Silva.  An adequate rotation, to say the least.  Just reading that rotation is exciting!  Let's hope Hendry figures it out.

Crosstown Classic: Round Two

This time the series shifted to the South Side for a three game set.  After a disappointing showing in the first series, the Cubs knew they had to win two here to split the series and maybe some figured out that, no matter what, the Cubs had to win Sunday to take the first BP Crosstown Cup.  For the Cubs to get that Cup, they would also need to win either Friday or Saturday.  If they won Friday and Saturday, they would still need to win Sunday because the tiebreaking rule in this Crosstown Cup is that the team who wins the last game takes the series for the year.

There was another big moment in the Crosstown Classic on Friday, this one going against the Cubs, but not from the White Sox.  Carlos Zambrano gave up four in the first, including a three-run homer to Carlos Quentin, and returned to the dugout attacking at first no one in particular and then Derrek Lee.  Apparently he wasn't pleased that Lee didn't dive down the line for Juan Pierre's leadoff double, because Pierre scored a run and Zambrano thought the team didn't go all out on defense.  He paced the dugout screaming after the 1st inning and came up to Lee and shoved him backwards a bit while verbally attacking him.  Zambrano was suspended indefinitely and placed on the restricted list, not to return until after the All-Star Break.  Some reports have mentioned that he won't return to the mound for the Cubs ever.  Jim Hendry says he will be back, but the public criticized Carlos' decision to go out to dinner with Ozzie Guillen at the Wit Hotel and the night after his blowup.

Paul Konerko hit his 19th homer in the 8th to be the go-ahead run as the Cubs offense was slowed by Freddy Garcia who allowed just two over seven innings.  As the story of Carlos Zambrano swirled around the Chicago sports media community, this game went somewhat unnoticed for a Cubs-Sox game.  Aramis Ramirez hit a home run in this one, his first since June 5th and his longest out of his six home runs this year, flying 418 feet to center.  Sox won 3-2.

The Cubs offense came out stronger Sunday putting up eight runs in their 8-6 victory avoiding a sweep.  A three-run bomb by Tyler Colvin and doubles by Derrek Lee and Geovany Soto made it 6-2, followed by another Paul Konerko homer.  The Cubs extended their lead thanks to an Alfonso Soriano homer and Tyler Colvin RBI single but their comfortable lead wasn't as comfortable after a bunch of hits brought the Sox within two in the bottom of the 9th.  The Cubs closed it, however, and improved to 2-4 on the season against the Sox.

The Cubs have lost the season series two straight years against the Sox and haven't won it since 2007, but the Cubs took away some positives even after being beaten badly Friday and Saturday.  Not that the Cubs could possibly hold any momentum, as they were beaten by the Pirates 2-1 on Monday.

Milwaukee Massacre

For the second time in three years, the Cubs have brought down Miller Park (Wrigley Field North).  I haven't ever seen the Cubs beaten this badly, but still I don't have much sympathy for the Brewers.  They are the team with the big, league-leader type stars and they are always labeled as underrated.  They can hit but they can't pitch, the type that fans like but those teams can become frustrating.  8-1, 5-1, and 12-2 the final scores, the Cubs outscoring them 25-4.  Each game was a blowout and the pitching was unbelievably good.  The Cubs pitching has certainly been a strength and they showed it in Milwaukee.  This was the weekend that they put everything together.  Tyler Colvin and Kosuke Fukudome both had two homers over the weekend, and Derrek Lee and Geovany Soto each added one on Sunday.  Carlos Zambrano allowed a run in his relief appearance, but it didn't matter and he otherwise looked sharp.  I really had a hard time seeing the Cubs rotation being as good as they used to be with Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Harden, and Marquis of 2008, by far the best rotation the Cubs have put out in decades.  With only two of those remaining, I thought the rotation wouldn't be as good, but it has been amazing lately.  Like I said, everything is coming together.  This is the way the Cubs need to win baseball games this season: great pitching, good, patient offense, and efficient defense.  We have an easy part of the schedule coming up, with Washington, Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati over the next two weeks.  I see us coming out in first.

Chicago teams (Cubs, White Sox) went 6-0 over the weekend with different styles of play.  The Sox won on three go-ahead homers in the 8th or 9th, first a walk-off by Andruw Jones, then a walk-off by Alex Rios, then a go-ahead homer in the 8th by Paul Konerko.  Despite their attempts at smallball, I think this will be the same fill-em-up-and-homer-em-in team that they have been for so long.  Konerko has been a nice surprise for them, but they do have plenty of struggles.  Jake Peavy can no longer pitch.  One thing I know for sure, is that Seattle isn't too happy with their bullpen.

The Pen Just Got Bigger

The Big Z.  A book, written by Pedro Miranda, was even made about the Cubs' most troublesome pitcher.  Supposedly an ace, he lost that role probably two years ago, yet he keeps starting Opening Days out of respect.  Carlos Zambrano was relegated to the bullpen in a move I never thought I'd see.  The Cubs have a reputation for sticking with bad players through struggles and not being aggressive enough on the hook, so this is a good sign.  For the first time since 2002, the Cubs will look at a Zambrano-less rotation.  The last time Zambrano pitched from the pen was also 2002.  Despite the fact that this photo is from 2009, these types of incidents have frequented Zambrano's career the last five years or so.  Lou Piniella and the Cubs drew a lot of criticism for waiting too long to take Alfonso Soriano out the leadoff hole, so this is a move that sends a message: The Cubs are cracking down on struggling players.  No job is safe if they're not producing.

The new rotation looks odd with Dempster, Lilly, Wells, Silva, and Gorzelanny.  Zambrano will become a setup man and I hope replace John Grabow for the moment.  Grabow can't pitch.  That's all I have to say about him right now.  Zambrano will get straightened out in the bullpen, becoming available Friday and I predict he will be back in the rotation in three weeks.  The biggest issue here is my fantasy team.  The market for setup men on fantasy baseball is very, very small which means they better be playing half the games or striking out 10/9 IP.  Since Zambrano does neither, there is no trade interest out there for the guy except that he could come back and start in a few weeks.  I sympathize for fellow Zambrano owners.  Go Cubs!

Opening Day Aces

13 games, 26 teams, 26 aces.  Those are some stats, but I have some much better: 1,922.  That is the total number of wins from today's Opening Day starters combined.  2,430 is the number of games in a season.  If 1,922 is about 4/5 of 2,430, imagine every game of last season excluding September.  All of those games have been won by one of these starters.  The leader of the group is Roy Halladay, whose 148 wins beats Derek Lowe's 141.  John Lannan of the Nationals has only 20 career wins, lowest on the list narrowly beating Yovani Gallardo's 22, Shawn Marcum's 24 and Scott Feldman's 24.

A few notable starters:
-Jon Garland, now the ace in San Diego, makes the Opening Day start.
-The A's hand the ball to Ben Sheets who hasn't pitched since 2008.
-The Indians give the start to Jake Westbrook who hasn't pitched since May 2008.
-Vicente Padilla starts for the ace-less Dodgers.

The matchups for today (bold games are the matchups I suggest watching):
All times CT, TV listings for Chicago area (if applicable)

Indians (Jake Westbrook)
at White Sox (Mark Buehrle)
1:05 PM  ESPN2, CSN

Phillies (Roy Halladay)
at Nationals (John Lannan)
12:05 PM

Marlins (Josh Johnson)
at Mets (Johan Santana)
12:10 PM

Cardinals (Chris Carpenter)
at Reds (Aaron Harang)
12:10 PM  ESPN

Dodgers (Vicente Padilla)
at Pirates (Zach Duke)
12:35 PM

Blue Jays (Shawn Marcum)
at Rangers (Scott Feldman)
1:05 PM

Tigers (Justin Verlander)
at Royals (Zack Greinke)
3:10 PM

Rockies (Ubaldo Jimenez)
at Brewers (Yovani Gallardo)
1:10 PM

Cubs (Carlos Zambrano)
at Braves (Derek Lowe)
3:10 PM  ESPN, WCIU

Padres (Jon Garland)
at D-Backs (Dan Haren)
4:10 PM

Giants (Tim Lincecum)
at Astros (Roy Oswalt)
6:05 PM  ESPN2

Twins (Scott Baker)
at Angels (Jered Weaver)
9:05 PM  ESPN2

Mariners (Felix Hernandez)
at A's (Ben Sheets)
9:05 PM

Cubs Positional Breakdown: Overall Grade

I am really excited for this season of Cubs baseball.  Every summer the Cubs roll around and gets the entire North Side up and moving.  Popularity for baseball is still rising to levels it has never been before.  Wrigley Field is a great place to hang out, eat some unhealthy food and drink a beer (soft drink), sit back and watch some great baseball.  Like I do every year, I'm going to be sweeping the ticket websites for the cheapest possible way to get into the ballpark, after which I am free to move about the upper deck, hopefully getting tickets $15 a pop or cheaper.  That's not such a easy task with the Cubs' ticket pricing these days, but head to Stubhub.com who have very cheap tickets, most spring games starting under $10 if you hurry.  

For the actual product on the field I am excited also.  Minus Rich Harden, Jim Edmonds, Reed Johnson, Jason Marquis, and Mark DeRosa and plus Randy Wells, Marlon Byrd, Tyler Colvin, and an amazing farm system are the only differences between the 2008 club and this club.  I don't see a reason why we won't win some games.  Here are my grades:

Starting Rotation: B+
Much will depend on Zambrano's success, Lilly's return and the #5 hole.
Bullpen: B-
There's no lack of talent, but there are too many young players to be sure of success.
Infielders: A-
Newfound depth gives us Lee, Ramirez, Theriot, Baker, Fontenot, Castro, and Soto all as options.
Outfielders: B+
Soriano is the problem, but Byrd and Fukudome are both above average.
Coaching/Management: A
Ricketts is turning the Cubs into a world class franchise, Piniella is still around and Jaramillo is a god.

Overall Grade: B+

Cubs Positional Breakdown: Starting Rotation

This area of the Cubs, fortunately, is a big strength. However, it's safe to say the Cubs' rotation underperformed in 2009.

#1: Carlos Zambrano, although he lowered his ERA for the second straight year, finished with a mediocre 9-7 record in 28 starts, signaling his first full season as a starter in which he finished with less than 13 wins. He did show promise right near the end of the season, however, including a two-hit shutout in San Francisco. The difference-maker for the hot and cold Zambrano in 2010 will be his dedication to keeping himself in shape and focus on what he needs to do to compete at the highest level, like frustrated Cub fans have seen flashes of. The dominant Zambrano could win 20 games and a Cy Young, or the other Zambrano can continue to do what he has been doing.

#2: Ryan Dempster also took a step back seeing his win total drop by six to 11. His ERA rose, although he did log his second 200-inning campaign. Dempster is a very good starter still with a live fastball and sneaky slider to go with his changeup, allowing him to get out of high pressure situations. Dempster is a positive clubhouse influence with his practical jokes and Harry Carey impersonations. Expect a bounceback year with more run support (part of the problem in 2009). 15 wins is a reasonable estimate.

#3: There are a few question marks with Ted Lilly's shoulder surgery, but it could form to be a nice audition spot for a few starts to see who deserves the #5 spot for the rest of the season. Lilly shook things up himself though, when today he announced his goal for full recovery is Opening Day. "I don't know what the date is," Lilly said Wednesday. "I'd like to be ready when all the other healthy guys are. That would be good for me. If I can't, I'll be disappointed. I have to understand that sometimes you take one step back to gain a couple forward. The whole idea is to not only come back as soon as possible and be out there contributing but be productive, too." Lilly, if healthy, will give a strong year like he has for all three of his years with the Cubs. His 44-26 record with the Cubs contains the most wins of any Cubs pitcher during that time period.

#4: Randy Wells was the biggest surprise without a doubt. A little-known rookie coming from AAA Iowa in early May to fill in for an injured starter, he became one of the most important cogs in the pitching by summer. It took a while to get a first win because of run support (see: Ryan Dempster), but he wrapped up consistent play all around for a 3.05 ERA. Another double-digit win season can be expected from Wells.

#5: Here is where things get interesting. The Cubs have a bunch of mediocre, #5 type starters, so Spring Training will tell who breaks camp with the job. Newcomer Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, and Jeff Samardzija all eye the spot. Silva would best be used from middle relief before starting, judging from his 5-18 record from two years in Seattle, making just 34 starts. Marshall has earned the spot before and didn't perform great, so many were pleased when he performed very effectively in various bullpen roles (not closer). Gorzelanny turned heads in 2007 going 14-10 with a 3.88 ERA, but has changed much since. He showed flashes of starting well with the Cubs, but still ended up with an ERA over five. Samardzija has started only two career games and was bashed in both, but his relief efforts and training have changed some minds within the Cubs organization. My verdict: Jeff Samardzija wins the job. He has the most upside here. Marshall was most effective in his bullpen role and should stay there, Silva is a mess and should be eased into an easy job to see if he can pitch at all, and Gorzelanny will be the backup (#5A) if Samardzija is overwhelmed again.

Overall Grade: A-
I gave them a minus because of the instability in the #5 spot and also the indentity theft risk of Carlos Zambrano. This would appear to be the year for him, but we just don't know. The run support that these guys had to work with was ridiculous considering the Cubs lineup. There is a 0% chance it will be that bad again. Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, and Wells are all capable of 15 win seasons in 2010. In fact, that is more likely than not. The #5 spot is kind of up in the air, I don't see what we can get from it. Those nights with the bases loaded and two outs might make us miss Rich Harden to just get a fastball high to strike 'em out, but besides that it appears Randy Wells has taken his spot effectively. The rotation will be back in 2010, watch out.