2012 Cubs Preview: Catchers



Starting catcher Geovany Soto

 This is first of the six-post comprehensive season preview on the 2012 Chicago Cubs!  Each of the next six days will feature the next segment.  First we'll take a look at the Cubs' situation behind the plate.

Inconsistent Soto will again try to live up to potential; this time, he'll have a better supporting cast

The incumbent at the catcher position is 2008 NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto.  Since winning that award, however, Soto's career has not gone as envisioned.  The best season of his career was that rookie season and he hasn't come all that close since.  2012 will be Soto's fifth season in the major leagues and he's still looking for his second 55-RBI season, even though he was projected as a major run producer and drove in 86 in his rookie year.  Given, he only 207 games between 2009 and 2010, but there's another problem in itself.  

"I tell you, if he continues to swing the bat the way he has since his recall, this guy's going to have a great career both behind the plate and at the plate." -Cubs TV commentator Bob Brenly after Soto's first career homer in Pittsburgh, September 9, 2007.

Defensively, Soto is no standout behind the plate.  Last season he threw out a career high of 30% of attempted basestealers, raising his career average to 27%.  For comparison, he's still well behind his Cardinal counterpart in Yadier Molina, who, at a career 44%, is regarded as perhaps the best defensive catcher in the game.  Soto's South Side counterpart, A.J. Pierzynski, has never been well known for defense and has a career mark of 24% but was at his worst in 2011.  

Soto has a good arm, but his mobility is sometimes affected by his size.  Soto did lose about 20 pounds last offseason and looked better than Cubs fans had seen him about a year ago, but he regained the weight as the season went on, further hampering his ability to make quick moves.  Remember, Geo, physics constitutes that mass and acceleration are inversely proportional.  In simple terms, less mass = quicker acceleration.

Offensively, Soto has been all over the board.  First he tore up the Pacific Coast League with the AAA Iowa Cubs in 2007, hitting .353 with 109 RBIs to become the PCL MVP.  His performance was noticed by the big league brass, and Soto even started two of the three playoff games that year despite being a September call-up (Matt Moore, anyone?).  Then Soto helped power the Cubs to 97 wins on the NL's best team by calling the pitches for one of baseball's deepest pitching staffs.  He had it all; 23 homers, a .364 OBP, 86 RBIs, an All-Star appearance, and even two triples.  

It went quickly downhill from there.  In 2009 he played for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic, approximately at which time he failed a drug test for marijuana; the results came out later in the season, but this must have hung over him the entire season.  When he wasn't injured, he was bad.  When I say bad, I mean he was being outhit by Koyie Hill.  Okay well not that bad.  Still, though, his average dropped 67 points to .218 and his slugging percentage was a measly .321.  

Then, a turn for the better.  Soto hit the DL again in 2010 but was far more effective as his walk rate was a career high and his .393 OBP is still a number unheard of for catchers.  He was definitely limited because of his injuries, but in a full season he would have been one of the best in the NL. 

Backup catcher Welington Castillo

Of course, he regressed again in 2011.  The power was there; everything else wasn't.  Geo struck out more and walked less than ever, resulting in a career low .310 OBP.  Even that power took a long time to get 'in swing' (pun not intended), as perhaps he wasn't used to his slimmer self.  As I explained, he gained the weight back, and the power returned.  Could there be a correlation there?  Quite possibly.  

Luckily for Cubs fans, catcher should be a stronger position than usual this season even if Soto isn't on his game again.  Taking over the reigns as backup catcher is 25-year-old Welington Castillo.  Castillo got his first splash of major league action in 2010, playing in seven games and hitting his first career homer at Sun Life Stadium in South Florida.  Castillo got more attention, however, for his shattered bat that struck Tyler Colvin on the basepaths in that same series.  

Castillo barely got any playing time last season, but he will get plenty this season.  He's a stronger defensive catcher than Soto and a more fit figure overall.  He can also swing it, which is a nice change for Cubs fans.  Hill was good defensively, but it's hard to become a fan favorite when you can't hit water if you fell out of boat.  Castillo batted .287 with 16 homers and a .516 slugging percentage in only 75 games last season.  It's good to stay younger here so Castillo can learn and improve, instead of watching the 33-year-old Hill decline.

Third-string catcher Steve Clevenger

The wild card in this race is 26-year-old Steve Clevenger.  He got his first career hit, a double, at the end of last season in San Diego.  He's decent defensively although not as active as Castillo and he really struggled back there last season, throwing out only 11% of basestealers and committing eight errors in 96 games.  Offensively, though, he's a nice surprise.  He doesn't bring the power of Soto or Castillo, but he gets on base and is very, very patient for a catcher.  He walks almost as much as he strikes out; the John Jaso model, if you will.  In 448 plate appearances last season, he batted .319 with an incredible .383 OBP.  Clevenger will probably get some playing time later in the season but, barring injuries, I'd be shocked if he makes the club out of Spring Training

28-year-old Chris Robinson, the backup catcher in Iowa last season, could get some playing time in Chicago in the event of an emergency.  He's average defensively and has virtually no power, but he hits for a nice average.  A former third-round pick of Tigers in the 2005 draft, Robinson has yet to debut in the major leagues.

I've dished on and on about this position for long enough.  Let's bury the hatchet.  I have high hopes for Soto given his history in even-numbered years, and I've been calling for Castillo for over a year and a half now.  Even if Soto still can't find rookie form, Castillo will take up the slack and play well, especially defensively.  This position is definitely a strength on the 2012 Cubs.             

Theo-cracy 2.0

Tom Ricketts introduced Theo Epstein, new President
of Baseball Operations, to the media last week.

Hopefully, a new era has arrived with the introduction of Theo Epstein as President of Baseball Operations, Jed Hoyer as General Manager, and Jason McLeod in some role in player development.  Epstein was formally introduced at a press conference on October 25 while Hoyer and McLeod will get theirs tomorrow.  I hope this means new philosophy with a solid gameplan in the Cubs front office, because for the last two years really, it seemed as if there was an argument going on between staff in favor of rebuilding and staff in favor of trying to win now, and the roster moves the Cubs made were a mix of both.  For example, trading Derrek Lee in August 2010 favored rebuilding, while trading some of the organization's top prospects for Matt Garza favored winning now.  The inconsistencies start at ownership.

I remember this part well; when Tom Ricketts was taking criticism for having a business man in Crane Kenney as President instead of a 'baseball guy' (as in a man with a scouting background who actively is overseeing player development and other staff in the organization), Ricketts replied that he doesn't need a 'baseball guy' to watch his other 'baseball guy' (talking about GM Jim Hendry).  However, Ricketts said in the Epstein press conference that Epstein had been a target to be the architect of the organization from the day Hendry stepped down.  Apparently a 'baseball guy' comes in handy, as one should.  The role of President of a baseball franchise is not to sell hot dogs and suite packages to corporations, it's to oversee all the player personnel and development staff, including the entire front office and all the players.  Kenney hardly did the second part at all.

Ronnie Woo-Woo approves.

The public's reaction to Epstein here in Chicago has honestly been stunning.  I don't really think that's a good thing, though.  If this is a true theo-cracy, then there Theo must be the deity at the center of it all.  So far, everyone in Chicago has tabbed Epstein as the savior of the Cubs organization, and surely there's no way the Cubs won't win a World Series now.  See how far that kind of thinking has gotten us?  Come on guys.

Theo-cracy 1.0, the Red Sox version, was revolutionary because it found value (or lack thereof) in players for specific traits or abilities, so as to maximize the baseball capabilities of the 25-man roster, just like Billy Beane did in Oakland.  However, Theo-cracy 1.0 was performed on a much bigger stage; Red Sox Nation, desperate for a World Series title for the first time in a Cub-like number of years.

Theo was not without seemingly random occurrences of luck.  How could he have predicted that a slow, bad-fielding first baseman-turned-DH from Minnesota, whose career high in homers was 20 in 2002, would turn into the AL home run king with 54 just four years later?  Also, it wasn't like he was taking over a bad team.  The Red Sox had put together playoff teams in 1995, 1998, 1999, and won 93 games in 2002.  He inherited Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Trot Nixon, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Lowe, and Pedro Martinez, six established stars on a good team.  On the Cubs, however, there is nowhere near as much star power.

In other news, the wall advertising behind Epstein during
his press conferences will no longer be the Red Sox'
signature visually-appealing Dunkin Donuts logo.

The only stars the Cubs have right now are Starlin Castro and Matt Garza.  After that, questions arise everywhere, whether it be inconsistency from Geovany Soto or Ryan Dempster or who will even start at the corners of the infield next season.  This is exactly why Theo is no savior; this is by far a harder challenge than his first in Boston.

Hoyer and McLeod, on the other hand, were just minions of Epstein back in the day.  The two took what they learned to San Diego, where Hoyer became GM in 2010 and McLeod joined the front office.  Together, they helped revamp the Padres' scouting and development system.  Partially as a result, Baseball America ranked the Padres' organizational talent eighth in MLB.  Now Hoyer and McLeod are reunited with their mentor, and I think the result will be one of the most unique decision-making forces around.

While the roles of GM and President of Baseball Operations are not interchangeable, they have their similarities.  While GM used to be the only job that seemed to matter to construct a ballclub, things appear to be changing.  When the media asked former Phillies and Blue Jays GM Pat Gillick about the Cubs' vacancy, he replied that he longer wanted to be a GM, but rather a President of Baseball Operations.

An action shot of Theo starring the ivy
in a rarely-seen autumn color scheme.

A President of Baseball Operations does exactly what it sounds like; he is the top authority in charge of everything in the Cubs organization relating to the actual team put out on the field, which means he has power over the GM and anyone else in the front office.  It appears to be a most desirable position these days.  Epstein saw the benefits and abandoned ship with the Red Sox to get it with the Cubs.  So even though Hoyer will be making the day-to-day moves like roster call-ups or arbitration negotiations, Epstein will be the key architect of the team, the big-picture guy.  McLeod, scouting director Tim Wilken and VP of Player Personnel Oneri Fleita will be shuffling minor leaguers and crunching numbers to help build the future.  I therefore think it's kind of ironic that everyone is calling Epstein the savior while the Cubs front office will be more of a team effort than it ever has been.

Even though Epstein can't play third or first base, outfield, or a #5 starting pitcher (or a #4 or #3, for that matter), his presence on the team will be felt in the next few years.  He's no savior, but he and his delegation of executives will get the team to start playing better baseball one way or another.  Realistically, 2012 probably isn't the year, but I have high hopes for 2013.  As does Epstein.

Dumping Grounds

The loss of Prince Fielder would make Milwaukee's
NLCS run their last for a while.

An opportunity is arising for the Chicago Cubs.  Even next season, the NL Central will be much weaker.  The Brewers, who will most likely lose Prince Fielder, don't have anyone explosive enough to follow up Ryan Braun. Braun will be walked.  And walked.  And walked.  After this current group of Brewers, losing lies ahead.  Milwaukee's farm system is ranked 30th (last) in MLB by Baseball America.

Even if the Cardinals keep Albert Pujols, they're not getting any younger.  To expect another elite season from 37-year-old-to-be Chris Carpenter would be foolish.  Losing Pujols also blows any chance they have for the playoffs next season.  The Cardinals are 24th in Baseball America's ranking.  

The Houston Astros, who had the worst season in franchise history in 2011, won't improve by much anytime soon.  Their farm system is ranked 26th.  And just like that, three NL Central teams have three of the worst 10 farm systems in MLB.  The Pirates are nearly the fourth, ranking at 19th.

Brett Jackson

That leaves the Reds (6th) and Cubs (16th).  The Cubs' ranking is good enough (the Sox are at 27th for comparison) but also misleading.  There are many, many average-to-above-average prospects in the system like starter Chris Carpenter who made his major league debut in June.  At one point, Jay Jackson was also projected to be in the Cubs starting rotation.  Both Jackson and Carpenter had awful seasons.  But they were just two of our many hopeful prospects who endured bad seasons in 2011.  A real weak point to the Cubs farm system is that, since Starlin Castro was called up 17 months ago, there are no stars or breakout talents.  Except for one.

Expectations are already too high for center fielder Brett Jackson.  A possible 20-20 threat, some fans and scouts have pegged him as the Cubs' answer leading off for a decade.  Just reading over a scouting report, however, makes me suspicious.  Anyone remember the last two Cubs prospects fitting the following description?  Athletic future Major League center fielder with good speed and power but strikes out too much for a lead off man.  That sounds too similar to Corey Patterson and Felix Pie, both busts who wound up in Baltimore.  Jackson will still be a good player in the Majors (knock on wood) mainly because he walks more than Patterson or Pie ever did, but Cubs fans shouldn't go overboard on thinking he's some super-prospect.

Josh Vitters with Da Comish

He's still only 21, but Cubs fans having been hearing about third baseman Josh Vitters forever.  Of course, being the 3rd overall pick of the 2007 Draft does come with a little added buzz.  He had a real fine year at AA, and if he keeps it up he'll be a September call-up in 2012.  However, he walked less than once every 20 at-bats.  Although he doesn't strike out much either, he could start striking out a lot more when pitchers figure him out.  81 RBI in 488 plate appearances (in the minors)?  I'll take it.  But he'll need to learn how to make pitchers work before he becomes an elite prospect.

My point is that while these guys are good, they all have at least one notable flaw.  Therefore, none are elite.  Furthermore, none are even that close to being 'sure bets' to produce in the Major Leagues.  The system needs more quality prospects and the Cubs should trade to get them.  The new GM, whether it be Theo Epstein or not, hopefully will pick up on this need.  But who should be traded in order to get these prospects?  Glad you asked.

Marlon Byrd

Marlon Byrd is as definite a candidate as there is.  Despite having a terrible season, he seems to still be somewhat of a fan favorite among Cubs fans.  In 2010, he was a fan favorite as well, and deservedly so.  He was an All-Star, brought smiles and a key veteran presence and decent production offensively and defensively.  This season, he hit in the face by an Alfredo Aceves fastball in May.  He missed extensive time but was no better when he came back.  Although he hit a respectable .276, he hit .198 with runners in scoring position.  In 482 plate appearances, he drove in 35 runs.  Let's review.  In 488 plate appearances, Vitters drove in 81.  With only six more plate appearances, Josh Vitters drove in 46 more runs than Byrd - in AA!  That speaks more to Byrd's failure than Vitters' success.

Carlos Marmol should also be considered.  I hate to admit this because Marmol can be so fun to watch and dominating when focused, but he's overpaid and inconsistent.  The Cubs would probably have to pay some of his salary if he were to be traded.  A good presentation and aggressive bargaining, however, could land the Cubs a premium prospect.  Sean Marshall is ready for the closer's role.  I'm not recommending a trade of Marmol this offseason for the sake of dumping Marmol, but there isn't anyone not named Starlin Castro who is untouchable on this roster.  If a team is willing to give up a good prospect to get Marmol, the Cubs need to pounce.

This next one might be a surprise to many, but Geovany Soto could go at the right price.  If the Cubs have another slow start in 2012, it could be just to time to unload Soto while his contract is still cheap and he is attractive to other teams.  Welington Castillo should get a fair chance at the Major League job, seeing as he can play defense and hit, unlike our other backup of the last three seasons (Koyie Hill).

Alfonso Soriano

Lastly, Alfonso Soriano is a real stretch.  A trade would mean the Cubs would eat nearly all of his remaining $54 million over three years.  However, his 88 RBI last season could be inviting to a general manager who would only have to pay a few million for it and could possibly even DH Soriano.  If the Cubs pay a big majority of the contract, prospects would come their way.

The bottom line is that there are many players on the Cubs right now that are no longer totally necessary.  The Cubs are going to need some core pieces to build a team around and surrounding youngsters who will develop, eventually resulting in winning.  These core pieces could be acquired by free agency, but there are too many players on the roster that are holding the team back and are being kept for all the wrong reasons.  Recently the Cubs have boasted about their record-spending in scouting, domestically and internationally.  Why not show it off now by getting under-the-radar prospects?  With better scouting in the past, the Cubs' current center fielder could have been Jacoby Ellsbury.   

Homestand Analysis: Houston, Milwaukee

Starlin Castro narrowly missed
getting his 200th hit at home.

Record: 4-2
Final Record: 69-87

Carlos Lee, despite all odds, has actually had a really great season.  Call me crazy, but the Astros former outfielder (now part-time outfielder and part-time first baseman) has a WAR this season of a full 7.0 points higher than last season!  For comparison, Ryan Braun's 7.2 WAR is 4th in the NL.  Unfortunately for Lee, however, his WAR last season was -2.5, making this season's at 4.5.  Still a very impressive turnaround, and the move to first base definitely hides his defensive weaknesses.  His defensive WAR this season is up 4.0, from -2.0 to 2.0.

Lee hit a solo homer in Friday's game at Wrigley Field for what should have been the only run off Matt Garza.  Even though it was only his 17th of the season, he has been very clutch and improved his walk rate to the point where his OBP improved nearly 50 points compared to last season.  With two outs and two strikes in the ninth on Lee with a 3-1 Cubs lead and a man on base, Lee tagged Garza, who was a strike away from a complete game win, for a two-run game-tying home run.  Marlon Byrd drove in the winning run with an infield single in the 12th.

Despite Lee's great season, the Astros have undoubtedly been the worst team in baseball.  Even though they haven't won the division since 2001, their franchise history reveals that even when bad, they've managed to stay mediocre and avoid disastrous, 100-loss seasons.  Only eight times in the franchise's 50-year history has the team finished with more than 90 losses.  But this seasons, all bets were off and the 'Stros were on pace to lose around 115 games even in May.  Although they definitely won't lose that many now, they lost their 100th on Saturday against the Cubs.  Rodrigo Lopez dominated and Bryan LaHair homered for the go-ahead run early but the lead stood 2-1 at the end.

Bleacher fans celebrate the last home win of the season.
Attendance was down for the fourth year in a row at
Wrigley, but hope is on the horizon this offseason.

Ryan Dempster had one of his typically awful first innings on Sunday but calmed down after that, giving up just those first three runs.  In the 8th, a three-run homer by Carlos Pena appeared to give the Cubs a 4-3 lead, but official review revealed the ball bounced off the yellow rope which divides the home run line and came back into the park, which is in play.  The tying (Starlin Castro) and go-ahead (Pena) runs had to stay at third and second, respectively.  Byrd failed once again with runners in scoring position (surprise, surprise) and that was the only chance the Cubs would have.  The Cubs took two of three, but should have swept.

Geovany Soto drove in all five runs on Monday night against Milwaukee on two homers and a single.  His first homer got onto Waveland Ave, making him the first Cub to reach Waveland this season.  Jerry Hairston Jr. homered off Casey Coleman for his only earned run, and Carlos Marmol performed his routine over-dramatization of a 'save' with a four-run lead by allowing Casey McGehee a 9th inning homer then putting on a few baserunners.  But with the tying run at the plate, the Cubs escaped, winning 5-2.

Mike Quade expects to be back next season, but the
new GM will probably have other (better?) ideas

Tuesday's game was a mess as los Cerveceros put up four on Randy Wells in the 4th inning.  Wells' late season hot streak is definitely over.  Castro was the only Cubs run in the 6th when he homered off Shaun Marcum, who was otherwise practically untouched.  Aramis Ramirez left early with an injury in what could be his last game at Wrigley as a Cub.

In the final home game of the season Wednesday afternoon, the Cubs passed 3,000,000 in attendance.  At 3,017,966 (an average of 37,258), the Cubs just barely passed the mark for the eighth year in a row.  Although 3,000,000 is a great feat achieved by a lucky bunch of larger-market teams, the extra empty seats at Wrigley was no secret.  Through April and May, it didn't look like the Cubs had any chance to get back to 3M, but consistent crowds of 39,000+ in the summer months pushed it through.

In 2008, the Yankees and Mets both had over 4,000,000 in attendance, but higher ticket prices and a recession saw no more 4M teams since.  There won't be any of them this season either; not even close.  The Phillies, MLB's attendance leader, would have to have around eight more home games to reach that.    This season, seven teams have reached the 3M mark and the Angels will by the end of the season.  The first seven in order are the Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Twins, Red Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals.

Matt Garza celebrates his complete game win
to close the 2011 home schedule.

D.J. LeMahieu doubled in two in that home finale as part of a 7-1 blowout.  Byrd hit a three-run homer and Garza got his complete game this time, ending the home season on a high note.  Castro, hot in the pursuit of 200 hits on the season as the NL's hits king, had three chances to get it but was intentionally walked, grounded out to short, and walked.  He got his 200th leading off Friday's game in St. Louis, so not to worry.

The last road trip of the season features St. Louis and San Diego.  The Cubs can really hurt St. Louis' playoff chances with even one win, which they got Friday night.  The Padres aren't playing for much, but the Cubs should be able to close out the season with a series win there.  It's hard to believe the Cubs are done at Wrigley in 2011, but Opening Day feels like years ago.  Watching baseball at Ye' Olde Wrigley was less fun than usual without an alcoholic aid...but big change is coming this offseason and it definitely won't get any worse than it was this season.  Financial flexibility will make us a better team next season, so I foresee games at Wrigley being a significantly hotter ticket next summer than this one.

Road Trip Analysis: New York, Cincinnati

Cubs steal emotional finale in New York on 9/11's 10th anniversary

Record: 3-4
Final Record: 65-85

Ever since the Mets traded Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers in July, the search has been on for the closer of the future.  Hard-throwing Bobby Parnell couldn't handle the job in his trial, so Manny Acosta got the honors on Friday night with a 4-3 lead in the ninth.  Darwin Barney's RBI single gave Acosta a blown save and a wide round of boos from the Citi Field crowd, but the offense redeemed him in the bottom of the inning on Justin Turner's walk-off double.

Late in the game Saturday, the Mets looked to win another tight game.  Jason Bay came through with a two-out RBI single to give the Mets a 4-3 lead in the eighth.  After Acosta's blown chance the night before, the Mets staff came crawling back to Parnell to save the next game.  Parnell blew yet another lead, as the Cubs continued their recent comeback trend.  Aramis Ramirez's two-run single to give the Cubs a deciding 5-4 lead came on a 98 mph fastball from Parnell to knot the series at one.

It's not everyday that ESPN shows a Major League Baseball game, in its primetime Sunday night slot no less, between two teams that are a combined 45.5 games out in their respective divisions.  For the Cubs, that's all Sunday night's game in New York was.  A game.  For the Mets, it was much more.  It was practically a mourning, an emotional anniversary of a terrorist attack in their community.  Many fans in the stands were personally connected to those that died on 9/11, and a big pregame ceremony was held in remembrance.  I thought the game would be sold out for sure, and it sure as hell would've made a greater statement if it was.  But apparently much of Queens didn't get the memo, as only 33,502 came to watch another tight game.

Tyler Colvin had three RBIs by the fifth inning when the Cubs held a 4-1 lead, but the Mets started chipping away on Matt Garza, eventually tying it in the eighth off Jeff Samardzija.  It would remain tied until the 11th, when rookie Josh Stinson gave up the lead followed by a two-run double each for Alfonso Soriano and Barney off Ryota Igarashi.  A Geovany Soto sac fly made it 10-4 and this insurmountable lead won the game and series for the Cubs.

Rodrigo Lopez was far from perfect in his start at Cincinnati Monday night.  Luckily, he didn't have to be perfect, as the Cubs offense put up 12 runs in support.  Lopez, who has always had problems with allowing home runs, gave up a 502-foot moon shot over the right field bleachers and into the Ohio River to Juan Francisco - the fifth homer of his Major League career.  But Jeff Baker, Starlin Castro, and Ramirez would all homer later as a washed up Dontrelle Willis really struggled.  The 12-8 win gave the Cubs 22 runs in two games.

Unfortunately, the first game of this four-game series in Cincy was the only winner for the Cubs.  In his last start of the year before being shut down by an innings limit, Mike Leake shut down the offense and narrowly outdueled Ryan Dempster in a 2-1 win.  Brandon Phillips, aka 'Dat Dude BP' (his nickname and twitter account), homered in the first.

Ramon Hernandez hit a three-run homer off starter Casey Coleman to open the scoring Wednesday night and the Reds never looked back in a blowout win.  Reds starter Johnny Cueto had to leave early with an injury, but that did nothing to awake the suddenly silent Cubs bats.

Just as suddenly as they fell silent, the bats woke up in the first inning of the series finale.  Marlon Byrd and Carlos Pena both hit two-run homers in the first inning off Homer Bailey.   Then it fell silent once again until the ninth, when the 4-0 lead had turned into a 6-4 deficit.  An exciting rally ensued; Barney drove in his second ninth inning game-tying run of the road trip.  As is typical, the Cubs stranded runners in the 10th and 11th innings before James Russell curiously blew two lefty-on-lefty matchups.  Joey Votto began the 11th with a double and Jay Bruce ended it with a walk-off two-run homer.

I don't know you about you, but this losing stuff ain't sittin' right.  Still.  Many fellow Cubs fans I know have regressed into that 'I've moved on' phase recently, but many times I can call them out on this bluff.  The best hope for a winner right now in Chicago may be the Bears, but losing still hurts.

Including wins in the first two games against the Astros, the Cubs need to go at least 8-2 to match last season's record.  They have clinched a losing season, but can avoid losing 90 games by going at least 6-4.          

Road Trip Analysis: Milwaukee, San Francisco

Record: 2-4
Final Record: 59-78

The shift of power in the NL Central was on full display in Milwaukee for the first three games of this six-game road trip for the Cubs.  Miller Park, which used to welcome an arguable majority of Cubs fans during these summer I-94 series games, hosted packed houses of hometown fans each night, and they all went home happy.

The Brewers easily swept the three-game series, giving up the lead in only the first game.  Comeback attempts on Saturday and Sunday both fell short by two and one runs, respectively.  Brewers closer John Axford got the save in all three games.  In late July at Miller Park, the Cubs were also swept by the Brewers with Axford getting a save in all three games.  With the sweep, the Brewers improved to an incredible 50-16 at home.  The historic 2008 Cubs only went 55-26 at home.

As the playoffs approach, the Brewers appear unstoppable at home.  Home field advantage will be a huge factor in their games as they have struggled on the road.  From the Cubs standpoint, there was little to be remembered in this series besides a Starlin Castro leadoff homer on Friday and the comeback that fell just short on Sunday, including a Tyler Colvin homer in the 9th.  These appear to be the famous 'dog days of August' that just won't end.

Perhaps to escape the scorching heat, the Cubs traveled to a city whose temperature barely fluctuates seasonally in San Francisco.  The world champs were losing their divisional grip on Arizona, a team that hadn't been given much love by the 'experts' in the media.  But the Cubs would help them out big time here, a win-win in my book.  The Giants have a horrifically bad, Mariners-like incompetence offensively where a good batting average is .240.

If they hadn't looked bad enough yet this season, Randy Wells totally embarrassed them Monday night.  Wells threw his first ever complete game in shutout fashion, allowing only four baserunners on two hits, a walk, and an error.  Three homers off ace Tim Lincecum, a first in Lincecum's career, knocked him out of the game and the Cubs eventually won 7-0.  Matt Garza couldn't match Wells' performance, but he earned his 7th win of the season the next night as the Cubs won 5-2 behind solid offense and an Alfonso Soriano homer for the second straight night.

Madison Bumgarner shut out the Cubs for eight innings on Wednesday afternoon and the Giants won 4-0, but they still only scored six runs in the entire series.  For this lack of offense, the Giants will miss the playoffs this season.  Even though the Cubs didn't show up hardly at all for the last game, taking two of three from the defending world champs always will earn them bragging rights.  And offense or no offense, the Giants pitching staff is still one of the best and the Cubs put up plenty of runs the first two games.  Lincecum had allowed two homers in a start just nine times in his career and not ever to the Cubs, but Soriano, Geovany Soto, and Blake DeWitt managed to make history.

Next up for the Cubs will be their second to last homestand of the season against two mediocre division opponents, the Pirates and Reds.  As the rosters open up here at the end of the season, look for the debut of some of their newest youngsters like first baseman Bryan LaHair who ripped up the Pacific Coast League in Triple-A with 31 homers and overall one of the best offensive seasons in Iowa Cubs history.    

Homestand Analysis: Cincinnati, Washington

Record: 4-2
Final Record: 51-67

Fresh off that major sweepage in the Steel City, the Cubs returned home to face a reeling Cincinnati team that had pretty much knocked themselves out of postseason contention.  The underperforming Reds, expected by many to battle the Cardinals and Brewers for the division all season long, came into Friday's game at 57-61 and 10 games behind division-leading Milwaukee.  The Cubs wouldn't make it any easier for them either, as the Cubs, or Tony Campana rather, motored past the Reds in a 4-3 win to open the series.

Campana's first-inning inside-the-park-homer, which also scored Starlin Castro, was the first home run of his career.  In fact I remember Len and Bob once remarking on a broadcast that it was as likely that Campana's first homer came in the park as it was over the wall.  It was just an amazing sight to behold and one of the most exciting plays in baseball, although near the end there was little doubt the little guy would make it.  The left fielder was a first baseman named Yonder Alonso who apparently hadn't adapted well to his temporary position, as he ran into the wall and let the ball skip right past him.

Tyler Colvin homered an inning later to make it 3-0.  Ryan Dempster ran into a bit of trouble in the 4th, allowing two runs, but the Reds never got the lead back despite a late homer by Ramon Hernandez which cut the lead to one.  Carlos Marmol saved the win, but Campana's clutch catch in the center field ivy (Sam Fuld-style) robbing Brandon Phillips of extra bases gets the real save.  A solid, solid victory.

On Saturday, the Cubs beat the Reds in blowout fashion.  Carlos Zambrano earned his ninth win of the season which could be his last win as a Cub.  Zambrano homered, Castro picked up four RBIs, and Carlos Pena picked up three in the 11-4 win.  On Sunday, Sean Marshall's midseason slump appeared to pack in one last stand as Marshall blew a one-run lead in the 8th, allowing the Reds to win 8-7.  The win snapped the Cubs' season-high seven-game winning streak.

Following the Monday rainout, the Cubs played the first of three against Chien-Ming Wang and the Nationals on Tuesday.  Wang stymied the Cubs offense, allowing hardly any baserunners and no runs while Matt Garza on the other side continued to receive the world's worst run support.  This one of Wang's first few starts in over two years, so the effort by the Cubs offense is pretty disappointing.  Golden boy Castro homered in the 8th, but the rest of the lineup stayed quiet in the 3-1 loss.

Batboy?  Nope, the dude in the middle is
the scrawny little Campana.

Homers by Reed Johnson, Geovany Soto, and Alfonso Soriano were enough to put away the Nats on Wednesday, thanks to a solid start by Rodrigo Lopez.  Although Lopez is just a short-term fix for this season's lack of rotation depth, it's good to see the Cubs be able to win with him on the mound.

Dempster again had great stuff in his Thursday start against the Reds, a 1-1 tie until homers by Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena made it 4-1.  A late rally nearly tied the game for the Reds, but a huge clutch performance by Carlos Marmol got the Cubs their third series win in a row and left them 9-2 in their last 11 home games.  Rick Ankiel hit an all-or-nothing blast to deep center that was caught near the warning track with the bases loaded and everything on the line with two outs in the 9th, giving the Cubs the win.

The phrase 'home cookin'' hasn't really applied to the Cubs this year or the last, but their 'road cookin'' in Pittsburgh carried over and kept on rolling back to Wrigley anyway.  This homestand just had a fun, positive feel to it which made it so fun to watch.  MVP honors goes to Dempster, who gave the Cubs everything in two very solid starts.  After the tough summer this has been for the Cubs and their fans, it's about time for some winning.  And according to Mike Quade, this could still be the year!

Four Nights in August

After the big 10-game road trip started off so terribly for the Cubs, dropping all three in Milwaukee and the first two in St. Louis, it seemed hopeless to think any positives could be taken from it.  But after a surprising win on national TV Sunday night in St. Louis, the Cubs came to Pittsburgh for a four-game series and did something they hadn't in over 50 years.

On the other side of Chicago, the story unfolding at the same time was nowhere near as bright.  In fact, some of the ugliest baseball the White Sox have played in quite some time.  The fact that the Yankees' only loss in Chicago in 2011 came against the Cubs is extremely rare; actually, that's never happened before.  The Sox were completely incompetent against the Yanks this season, and the series appeared to give the Sox little postseason hope remaining.

Outscoring the Pirates 24-15 and outhomering them 10-5, the Cubs took all four games for the first time since 1959 to incredibly break even on the trip.  While this series probably represents the only bright spot on an at-first atrocious 10-game swing, plenty of positives can be taken from it.

The Cubs beat the Bucs in all four games, they beat them in pretty much every fashion that a team can be beat.  On Monday the Cubs scratched together runs from sacrifice flies and fielder's choices and such, winning a tight battle 4-3.  On Tuesday, the Cubs blew them out in humiliating fashion with six homers in the first four innings!  Geovany Soto, Aramis Ramirez, Marlon Byrd, Tyler Colvin, and Alfonso Soriano (twice) all went yard as the Cubs won 11-6.  In all my years of watching baseball, I have never seen such an amazing power display.  On Wednesday, there were 16 total runs less scored than in the game before; just one.  A classic pitcher's duel between Matt Garza, the most under-appreciated starter on the planet and Charlie Morton, scrub, was destined for extra innings when Starlin Castro homered to help his cause for National League Player of the Week honors, which he ended up winning.  Final score: 1-0.  On Thursday the Cubs pulled out with an early lead, only to blow it and then make a marathon comeback in the 8th to win 7-6.

This compilation of victories is nothing short of a masterpiece, and will not soon be forgotten by this writer.  The term 'textbook' baseball applies.  This sweep effectively knocked the Pirates out of postseason contention, not just because of the four losses, but because of the drastic effect the losses must have had on the team morale.  The Pirates did go out and acquire Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee at the deadline, but these moves appear to have backfired and the NL Central is now a two-team race.

After the White Sox were swept by the Yankees, they handily swept the Twins in Minnesota.  In reaction, a panelist (and Sox fan) on CSN wondered why his team is 'doing this to me again', referring to the Sox blowing important games and look hopeless only to win games out of nowhere and be back in contention in no time.  The panelist just wished the Sox would lose and stop toying with their fans' minds.  When a team's own fans want the team to lose, the team has definitely been through some confusing and ridiculously aggravating stretches.

The Yankees series was one such stretch.  A lifeless stretch for the Sox saw all four starters get the loss in Jake Peavy, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Phil Humber.  The Yankees also played around with different variations of beatdowns, in the form of a blowout (18-7), a tight win (3-2), and simple superiority (6-0 and 7-2).  The series left the Sox in third place behind the Indians and Tigers by a total of 6.5 games.

As a Cubs fan, obviously I'm very pleased with the outcomes of both series.  Although this is probably not a harbinger (in that the Cubs will probably go back to consistently and the Sox back to hovering in a tentative in-contention holding pattern), it was fun while it lasted for sure.  And it probably isn't going to happen again anytime soon, so I am taking advantage of this for all it can be.  Not just the four-game sweeps on both sides of town (and winning on the right side, no less), but the authenticity of the the wins provides a lesson: in how many ways can a team beatdown another?  A comical and interesting question in the same, and it was definitely explored by our two Chicago teams last week.        

Road Trip Analysis: Chicago (AL), Kansas City

For analysis of the White Sox series, see the game recap posts below.

Sloppy series earns just one win; Royals bullpen shuts down Cubs offense late


Record: 2-4
Final Record: 31-46

A series that began mildly well for the Cubs ended highly disappointingly as the Cubs dropped the final two games of the series against a dismal Kansas City squad.

The Friday night opener was a win, but the Cubs didn't do much well in it.  Four baserunners were thrown out on the basepaths, although Mike Quade later said he had no problem with the aggressiveness.  Ryan Dempster allowed two through six innings, but an error allowed two more.  Luckily, the bullpen didn't allow anything after that.

The stories on Saturday and Sunday were very much the same.  Back-to-back home runs from Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto were the only runs for the Cubs on Saturday, and Chris Getz drove in the winning run in the 8th inning for a 3-2 Royals win.  On Sunday, a valiant comeback effort in the 3rd and 4th innings fell short and the Cubs trailed the entire game.  After the comeback fell short at 4-3, the Royals would add two more runs later and go on to win, 6-3.

The problem in this series was too many hittable pitches given up by Cubs pitchers.  They kept the ball down, allowing only one home run in the series, but walked at least four in each game, which set up countless RBI singles.  The offense was also mostly minimal in the two losses, stymied by an underrated KC bullpen.

With an eight game homestand that began Monday against Colorado, the Cubs were scheduled to play four games in three days against three different opponents.  Monday, originally scheduled to be a day off, was scheduled for the Cubs-Rockies rainout back on April 27.  Tuesday, originally scheduled to be just one game against the Giants at night, was scheduled to be a day-night doubleheader.  This totals to the Cubs playing the Royals Sunday afternoon in Kansas City, the Rockies Monday afternoon at Wrigley Field, and the Giants in the afternoon and at night on Tuesday at Wrigley.  

Crosstown Showdown: White Sox 4, Cubs 3

Alfonso Soriano steals his first base of the season,
beating the tag from shorstop Alexei Ramirez

Peavy returns from DL, wins despite ineffective start

CWS leads 2-1

It was yet another one-run loss for the Cubs, who have lost in this fashion in three of their last four losses.  A comeback attempt for the third straight game fell short and the Cubs dropped their second in a row.

The Sox got their first two runs off Doug Davis in the fourth when A.J. Pierzynski tripled home two runs.  The Sox also got a third run in the inning from a squeeze play by utility man Brent Lillibridge.  This play represents the Sox' best attempt to play smallball.  But the truth is that such a play wasn't even necessary in that situation, especially considering Lillibridge's knack for clutch plays this season.

A Starlin Castro RBI single put the Cubs on the board, but the Sox got an insurance run just a half-inning later thanks to an error by trippin' second baseman Blake DeWitt.  Of course, Davis could have prevented the run from scoring by not hitting Lillibridge with a pitch, but the bottom line is the inning should have already been over.

Incredibly, Carlos Pena hit his third homer in as many days, as if competing head-on with counterpart Paul Konerko, who actually didn't homer in this game to end his consecutive-game-with-homer streak at five.  Pena has gathered respect from all of his teammates as the calming influence as well as the defensive leader of this team, and it's great to see him catch fire offensively, too.

Jeff Baker redeemed himself for his big strikeout last night and singled home a run in the rally that knocked Peavy out of the game in the 6th.  Unlike the night before, the Cubs were very patient with Peavy, who had serious trouble locating his breaking pitches and gave Pierzynski a workout behind the plate.  His slider was all over the place, including bouncing in the dirt.  Much of Peavy's success in his career can be attributed to the fact that everything he throws, from his running fastball to his changeup to his slider, is hard, hard, and harder.  He's got a 'hot' heater and a power slider, a lethal and winning combination.  But when he loses control, everything kind of flies off the end.  The result: 104 pitches and 10 baserunners allowed through only 5.1 innings.

The Cubs bullpen was absolutely perfect on this night, throwing three innings and striking out four while allowing no baserunners between rookie Chris Carpenter, Jeff Samardzija, and Sean Marshall.  Unfortunately, the Sox bullpen almost equally as good.  Sox closer Sergio Santos has a save in each of the last two games; he has thrown a total of 26 pitches between the two games, including only three balls, no baserunners, and five strikeouts.  This, this is the definition of dominance out of the 'pen.

Overall, this was a very entertaining series, with intriguing battles between the first basemen and Ozzie Guillen and Geovany Soto's catcher's mask.  The Cubs lost two of three but now head to Kansas City for a weekend series against the Royals who are only one game better than the Cubs record-wise.  They're also only 20-21 at Kauffman Stadium and have the bottom end of their starting rotation going, so the Cubs could capitalize.  After all, the Cubs will finally be playing someone at their own level.


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Don't Be Sori

Alfonso Soriano's play has been very surprising and borderline inspirational this season.  In Arizona earlier tonight, Soriano blasted home runs #8 and #9 to left-center and right-center, respectively.  While Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney have been great offensively just hitting and getting on base, Soriano has been the only one so far in the power department to show up.  Geovany Soto, Carlos Pena, and Aramis Ramirez, who were probably expected to hit around 75 homers this season combined, have so far combined for three.  Soriano, on the other hand, has been great.  Except for the fact that, as usual, he hasn't been good in the clutch.  Soriano is batting .174 with runners in scoring position so far with only one homer in that circumstance.  With the bases empty, Soriano is hitting .316.  But for Soriano, the one thing that will keep his power in respectable numbers is a simple, yet elusive, characteristic.  Swagger.

Swagger is a mood.  Swagger is a way of life, and Soriano relies on it to do well.  When on one of his famous hot streaks that haven't really come around lately until this month, Soriano shows off his swagger by showing off at the plate after a home run.  Whether it's a little hop or its just a quick walk before the slow jog, one can watch on TV as Soriano shows his swag, if he has it.  Because Soriano is a hitter that goes on hot and cold streaks so much, he is susceptible to confidence swings and questionable effort.  Often times sans swagger, like all of last year, he would just give up some at-bats and chase the slider in the dirt low and away that everyone knows is coming.  But now, standing alone in second on the NL home run leaderboard to only Ryan Braun's 10, Soriano is fighting and working every at-bat.  If we can get this Soriano for an entire year, like the Nationals did in 2006, the haters will be forced to lay off him because he could show us finally what he is still capable of.

The 2010 National League All-Division Team

This is the Part Two of the two post series MLB's All-Division Team.  The first part was published on September 17th, and the reason for the delay of this post is the huge time commitment it takes and the postseason has been a busy one.  For this post I profiled 160 National League players, including even situational stats as you will read.  The National League was tougher to decide than the American League because there are more teams in the NL and there were also more competitive teams.  The team below won't disappoint, though, with a few surprises in there, too.  The same rules stand as the AL edition, where 'best' is defined as most important to his team.  There is also an extra incentive to being consistent for an entire season, and although not every player here was exactly a model of consistency in 2010, this is the reason Troy Tulowitzki, for example, didn't make the team.  Tulowitzki had "video game stats" for September going on an unbelievable tear but the fact is his power was missing for five out of six months of the baseball season, and Jose Reyes was more important to the Mets.  Again, this is not at all a popularity contest like the All-Star team is.  My goal in this series to get past that, and actually establish a foundation for the best players in baseball.



National League East

C Brian McCann, ATL
Too bad the Braves weren't able to take advantage of his biggest hit of the season, a go-ahead three-run double in the All-Star Game that gave the National League a win securing home field advantage in the World Series.  McCann, though, picked up plenty of other big hits for the NL Wild Card Champion Atlanta Braves.  One of the National League's best hitting catchers, he has hit 18 or more homers and 77 or more RBI each of the past five seasons.  He is a durable and able catcher, catching in 136 games and setting a career high at 30% baserunners caught stealing against him.  Opponents: Josh Thole (NYM), Carlos Ruiz (PHI), Ivan Rodriguez (WAS), and Ronny Paulino (FLA).


1B Adam Dunn, WAS
During a down year from Ryan Howard, Dunn walks away with the hardware this time.  Hitting a team-high 38 HR and 103 RBI, Dunn remained to be a glue piece to the Nationals' rebuilding efforts.  Washington slipped to 69-93 but were a winner early on and much of that had to do with Dunn.  All positive reviews from his two year stay on the Beltway, Dunn completed his initially surprising contract with a lasting effect on the young players who look up to him.  Opponents: Ike Davis (NYM), Ryan Howard (PHI), Gaby Sanchez (FLA), and Troy Glaus (ATL).

2B Dan Uggla, FLA
Okay, let's get the screaming negative out of the way.  He can't field for crap.  Glad to get that over with.  Okay, so now lets stare at his 33 homers, 105 RBI and 100 runs, which helps him get the win in a very tight race with Atlanta's Martin Prado.  Uggla is just another one of those guys to come out of the Marlins' system who owns.  He is their main power threat especially after Jorge Cantu got traded to Texas.  The offensive leader of this young team (sorry, Hanley Ramirez) deserves this spot.  Opponents: Adam Kennedy (WAS), Luis Castillo (NYM), Martin Prado (ATL), and Chase Utley (PHI)

3B David Wright, NYM
Wright quietly had a great year in the power department (29 homers) not having lost his speed quite yet (19 steals).  His strikeout rate badly increased for a season total of 161 and his batting average was a career worst .283 (which isn't saying much), but the fact is he is a franchise player and he needed a good year this season to prove his continued longevity as a Met, not just a product who had a few great years. The Mets faded at the end there, but their run in first for a while later than most expected wouldn't have been possible without Wright.  Opponents: Chipper Jones (ATL), Ryan Zimmerman (WAS), Placido Polanco (PHI), and Wes Helms (FLA).

SS Jose Reyes, NYM
Much said about Wright can also be said about Reyes, who needed to prove he could steal use the speed that gave him 258 steals between 2005 and 2008.  He needs some more work on regaining plate discipline, but Reyes took 30 bases in 40 tries in nearly a full season.  Also now the Mets won't have to play him conservatively and will let him run free.  Reyes gave the Mets that spark, the energy, that completely escaped them in the nightmare that was 2009 Mets baseball.  Opponents: Jimmy Rollins (PHI), Hanley Ramirez (FLA), Ian Desmond (WAS), and Alex Gonzalez (ATL).


LF Raul Ibanez, PHI
In a weak running in this division, Ibanez still wins despite being a shadow of his 2009 self.  It took him a long time to come around to hitting like he does and his Phillies were incapable of getting on a roll until he started contributing.  Sure enough, the Phillies started winning consistently and Ibanez was doing what he does best: driving in runs.  Opponents: Josh Willingham (WAS), Melky Cabrera (ATL), Jason Bay (NYM), and Chris Coghlan (FLA).


CF Angel Pagan, NYM
Hmm.  Imagine if he were still on the Cubs.  Lead off issues solved.  Pagan had his finest season yet thanks to the injury to Carlos Beltran.  Pagan stole 37 bases and batted .290, playing his first full season in the majors.  He also saw time at each outfield position, and durability is key in today's game.  Opponents: Nyjer Morgan (WAS), Cameron Maybin (FLA), Nate McLouth (ATL), and Shane Victorino (PHI)

RF Mike Stanton, FLA
Wake up.  You're drooling on your keyboard.  Stanton's huge power cranked 22 homers in a bit less than a full season after getting the call-up in early June.  He led National League rookies in homers and other offensive categories.  He only batted .259 but has time to improve.  Fans came out to see this guy because of his track record.  He is a gamer, future face of the franchise.  He had a terrific rookie campaign of 2010, but for now he is stuck staring at Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla before the team truly becomes his.  Opponents: Mike Morse (WAS), Jeff Francoeur (NYM), Jason Heyward (ATL), and Jayson Werth (PHI).


SP Josh Johnson, FLA
'JJ', as he's known to Marlins fans, cooled off slighly towards the end of the 2010 season.  He didn't start after September 4th after the Marlins shut him down which caused him to fall short of 200 innings at 183.2.  However, he averaged more than 6.1 IP per start and carried a ridiculous 1.72 ERA heading into August before having a rough month and finishing at 2.30.  He was in control all season, being yanked in the middle of an inning only three times out of 28 starts.  Oh, and he also struck out 186 and walked only 48.  Opponents: Johan Santana (NYM), Livan Hernandez (WAS), Tim Hudson (ATL), and Roy Halladay (PHI).


RP Billy Wagner, ATL
Wagner's career is now over after retiring at age 38, but it's a darn shame because he hasn't lost anything at all on his stuff and is still one of the most exciting closers to watch.  He finished with a 1.43 ERA and 37 saves in 71 games and 69.1 IP.  He struck out a ridiculous 104 batters while walking only 22!  His fastball consistently hit 98 like it has his entire career and his 2010 performance highlighted one of the best bullpens in baseball on the Atlanta Braves.  He retires 5th on the all-time saves list with 422, the Astros all-time saves leader, 4th on the Mets all-time saves list, tied for 9th on the Phillies all-time saves list, 6th on the Braves single season saves list, and struck out 1196 in 903 career innings.  Wow.  Opponents: Francisco Rodriguez (NYM), Brad Lidge (PHI), Leo Nunez (FLA), and Matt Capps (WAS).


National League Central

C Geovany Soto, CHC
'Geo' went under the radar in 2010 and had a great year although injuries still got to him.  Playing only 105 games still got him the hardware.  He really worked hard on losing weight and increasing mobility behind the plate, and it showed although he only threw out 22% of baserunners.  Soto was on pace to hit more than 23 homers, his output in his rookie year but finished with 17 and also 53 RBI, batting .280.  Soto showed a newfound patience especially early in the season when his walks outnumbered his strikeouts, a stat no one saw coming.  Opponents: Yadier Molina (STL), Ramon Hernandez (CIN), Ryan Doumit (PIT), Humberto Quintero (HOU), and Jonathan Lucroy (MIL).


1B Joey Votto, CIN
As Reds TV play-by-play announcer would tell you in a second, Votto was one of the best hitters in the National League and will get many MVP votes.  He tore up the league smashing 37 homers and 113 RBI, batting .324 with an OBP of .424 due to his 91 walks.  He could not be kept off the basepaths in 2010, and although Albert Pujols had a fine season of his own, Votto was a better all around player this season.  Votto threw in 16 steals too.  Opponents: Albert Pujols (STL), Derrek Lee (CHC), Garrett Jones (PIT), Lance Berkman (HOU), and Prince Fielder (MIL).


2B Jeff Keppinger, HOU
Before you tell yourself that the writer of this blog is crazy, consider this stat: 36 strikeouts in 575 at-bats.  Keppinger was statiscally the hardest batter to strike out in the National League.  He led all full season Astros players with a .288 batting average, and was a great veteran presence for a rebuilding team.  He was the guy that kept the offense moving in Houston and was reliable all season for a team that saw lots of young players come and go.  Opponents: Skip Schumaker (STL), Ryan Theriot (CHC), Neil Walker (PIT), Rickie Weeks (MIL), and Brandon Phillips (CIN).

3B Scott Rolen, CIN
One of the best comeback stories in baseball, Rolen suffered through two injury-filled seasons with the Blue Jays before being dealt to Cincinnati midseason 2009.  Rolen cooled off at the end but still hit 20 homers and 83 RBI in 133 games, batting a surprising .285.  As always, Rolen played just superb defense.  He was an influential veteran on this young Reds team.  Opponents: Aramis Ramirez (CHC), David Freese (STL), Casey McGehee (MIL), Pedro Alvarez (PIT), and Chris Johnson (HOU).


SS Starlin Castro, CHC
While his offensive WAR (Wins Above Replacement, a sabermetric stat) was only 1.6, he did so much for the Cubs offensively.  He loosened the pressure on the veterans, being the 20 year old high energy kid that he is.  Castro should improve in the future because of his ability to hit everything.  He goes to all fields and doesn't have a weakness in the strike zone, although he is least effective when jammed inside.  He had serious trouble defensively and contributed to the Cubs ranking first in baseball in errors, but he has plenty of time to fix it.  Without Castro, I don't see the Cubs winning more than 72 games in 2010.  Opponents: Tommy Manzella (HOU), Ronny Cedeno (PIT), Alcides Escobar (MIL), Orlando Cabrera (CIN), and Brendan Ryan (STL).


LF Matt Holliday, STL
This guy was the only hope for a Cardinals team that forever struggles with lineup protection for Pujols.  Holliday didn't disappoint, playing in 158 games hitting 28 homers, 103 RBI, and a great .312 batting average.  He got on base at a .390 clip, exactly what the Cardinals want from the guy behind #5.  Opponents: Alfonso Soriano (CHC), Jonny Gomes (CIN), Carlos Lee (HOU), Jose Tabata (PIT), and Ryan Braun (MIL).


CF Andrew McCutchen, PIT
'McClutchen' hit .286 but .315 with men on base, although only one of his 16 homers drove in more than himself.  This guy right here is marketing the Pirates to Pittsburgh, putting fans in the seats with his exciting play.  The fact that Pittsburgh still finished 15th in the NL in attendance tells you how bored the city is with this losing pandemic on the Pirates.  McCutchen stole 33 bases and was fifth in defensive range factor in center field.  Opponents: Marlon Byrd (CHC), Colby Rasmus (STL), Carlos Gomez (MIL), Drew Stubbs (CIN), and Michael Bourn (HOU).


RF Hunter Pence, HOU
The duck-footed kid had another fine year, consistent again for 25 homers, 91 RBI, and a .282 batting average.  He nearly hit the 20-20 club with 18 steals and is pretty much the face of the franchise with Carlos Lee having seen better days.  Pence was the heart of the offense and one of the formidable outfield trio in Houston with Lee, Bourn, and Pence.  Opponents: Tyler Colvin (CHC), Jay Bruce (CIN), Ryan Ludwick (STL), Lastings Milledge (PIT), and Corey Hart (MIL).


SP Brett Myers, HOU
Surprise, I know.  Shout out to Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, both did a great job but still don't get my award.  Myers wasn't expected of much by the baseball public when he signed with Houston, but has made such an incredible change on the pitching philosophy.  He was yanked from a start in the middle of an inning only four times in 33 starts, and had a streak of pitching at least six innings all the way until the last start of the season.  The results: 223.2 IP, 3.14 ERA, 180 K to 66 BB, 14-8 record.  And now he has the #3 starter, young J.A. Happ, to tutor.  Opponents: Ryan Dempster (CHC), Adam Wainwright (STL), Bronson Arroyo (CIN), Yovani Gallardo (MIL), and Paul Maholm (PIT).


RP Carlos Marmol, CHC
Breaking Eric Gagne's record of K/9 IP, Marmol's 138 K in 77.2 IP topped all NL relievers by a long shot.  He also came six short of Randy Wells' K total of 144, although Wells needed 116.2 IP more to do it.  Marmol saved 38 games with an ERA of 2.55 and although he did walk 52, he only allowed 40 hits.  Incredibly, he allowed one homer and even more incredibly, it was to Jeff Clement of the Pirates in May, an opposite field shot at Wrigley.  Marmol is, without Cubs bias, the most dominant and intimidating reliever in the National League.  Opponents: Francisco Cordero (CIN), Ryan Franklin (STL), John Axford (MIL), Brandon Lyon (HOU), and Octavio Dotel (PIT).



National League West

C Buster Posey, SF
In a very weak division for catchers, there may now be at least one star for a long time in the future.  Bengie Molina, the incumbent catcher playing in his fourth season for San Francisco, was traded to make room for Posey.  I didn't believe all the hype in Spring Training about this guy, but I'm a believer now.  Posey whacked 18 homers and 67 RBI in 105 games, and what's really remarkable is that he's generating the power from a small 6-1 frame.  Posey will be a fan favorite for the next decade.  Opponents: Yorvit Torrealba (SD), Miguel Olivo (COL), Russell Martin (LAD), and Miguel Montero (ARI).


1B Adrian Gonzalez, SD
'A-Gon' has been the face of this franchise for at least four years, as if there was any competition.  Gonzo's 31 homers led the Padres, ahead of the second place Will Venable by 18.  The hispanic star has been thrown around in trade rumors and needed a winning team this season to avoid getting dealt, probably to Boston.  It is good for the game of baseball, though, that his .298 batting average, 93 walks and 160 games played in 2010 stayed in San Diego.  If the Padres could ever get him some support, he could be an even better player with more baserunners to drive in.  Opponents: Aubrey Huff (SF), James Loney (LAD), Todd Helton (COL), Adam LaRoche (ARI).`


2B Kelly Johnson, ARI
Probably the biggest surprise on the offensively-exciting D-Backs, Johnson led the NL with 12 homers at one point.  He fell way behind in that race, but still he had a great year of 26 homers and 71 RBI, batting .284.  While Johnson set a career high with 13 steals, he needed this year to reinvigorate his career after really looking bad and getting kicked out of Atlanta.  Opponents: Freddy Sanchez (SF), Blake DeWitt (LAD), David Eckstein (SD), and Clint Barmes (COL).


3B Ian Stewart, COL
This is not the division to look in for a good third baseman.  That said, Stewart is at least consistent while Mark Reynolds, who hit 32 homers, batted .198.  He provided his regular low average yet abundant power in 2010 with 18 homers in only 386 at-bats.  He played only 121 games and the Rockies counted on him over the summer as Troy Tulowitzki wasn't getting the job done powerwise.  His 18 homers was third on the Rockies.  Opponents: Pablo Sandoval (SF), Chase Headley (SD), Mark Reynolds (ARI), Casey Blake (LAD).


SS Juan Uribe, SF
Who saw this coming?  Uribe, after wearing out his welcome with the White Sox, was picked up by the Giants before 2009 and has been great since.  Uribe set a new career high in homers with 24 and a new career high in RBI with 85, while being a huge part of a Giants team that relied on his pop.  For only $3.25 million, he has been a huge steal for San Francisco.  Opponents: Rafael Furcal (LAD), Troy Tulowitzki (COL), Everth Cabrera (SD), and Stephen Drew (ARI).


LF Carlos Gonzalez, COL
The Cubs certainly remember how good this guy is.  Gonzalez hit for the cycle against the Cubs in August, the biggest highlight of his monster season.  Gonzalez did it all batting .336 with 34 homers, 117 RBI, and 26 steals.  There is no doubt Gonzalez was the best player on the 2010 Rockies and one of the best in the National League.  He will get plenty of MVP votes.  Opponents: Manny Ramirez (LAD), Pat Burrell (SF), Gerardo Parra (ARI), and Scott Hairston (SD).


CF Chris Young, ARI
Young nearly made the 30-30 club for the second time in his career, but arguably had the best season of his career.  After disappointing many with such a low average in 2008 and 2009, it's good to see a guy with such great talent work his way back to where he needs to be.  Young hit 27 homers and stole 28 bases, batting .257, not great but acceptable.  The 26 year old also set a career high in walks for an Arizona team that struck out the most in baseball.  Opponents: Dexter Fowler (COL), Matt Kemp (LAD), Tony Gwynn Jr. (SD), and Aaron Rowand (SF).


RF Andre Ethier, LAD
It was a down year for the Dodgers and a less exciting one for Ethier, but he still got the job done.  Hitting .292 with 23 homers and 82 RBI, Ethier continued to become even more of a fan favorite.  With Matt Kemp playing alongside Ethier in center, the two make make one of the best outfielder duos in baseball, and Los Angeles has fallen in love with the play of the two stars.  Opponents: Justin Upton (ARI), Ryan Spilborghs (COL), Nate Schierholtz (SF), Will Venable (SD).


SP Mat Latos, SD
This 22 year old is a stud and a capable ace of the Padres.  Going 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA in his first full season, Latos struck out 189 in 184.2 IP.  He also walked only 2.4/9 IP, keeping his pitches under control especially his fastball which lights up the radar gun.  Latos was vital to the Padres team that came a game from getting to the playoffs as the biggest surprise in baseball.  Opponents: Tim Lincecum (SF), Ubaldo Jimenez (COL), Clayton Kershaw (LAD), and Ian Kennedy (ARI).


RP Heath Bell, SD
Bell's 47 saves were critical for a Padres team that needs to hold a lead when they get one, because it's unlikely the offense will get it back.  Bell was second in baseball in saves only behind Brian Wilson.  He was the old man of the bullpen at 32 and his 1.92 ERA was topped by a few guys in the best bullpen in baseball.  Bell may be a big man with limited mobility, but he is a great pitcher with a lively fastball and he struck out 11.1 batters per 9 innings, more than good enough for a closer.  Opponents: Brian Wilson (SF), Jonathan Broxton (LAD), Huston Street (COL), and Juan Gutierrez (ARI).



The amount of representatives is somewhat conducive to success of the team:

3 players: FLA, NYM, CHC, HOU, SD
2 players: ATL, CIN, SF, ARI, COL
1 player: WAS, PHI, STL, PIT, LAD
0 players: MIL

Interestingly, no National League team finished with more than three representatives; as opposed to the American League, where the Rangers topped it with six.  This team is obviously in my opinion so it is a cumulative mix of stats and sabermetrics with opinion.  I thank you for reading this post, I hope you enjoyed it.

NOTE: I'm currently working on a project to improve the blog.  Coming soon is the ability to search a player by last name and get all the posts with that player in it, as I am tagging the posts.  I will write when the project is completed.

Road Trip Wrapup: Houston, Colorado

Record: 1-5
Final Record: 46-59
Games Behind First: 13 GB

This season probably marks the end of the playoff hopes for the Cubs.  With 57 games remaining and 13 games behind first, there is virtually no chance the Cubs can reach St. Louis and Cincinnati.  This series saw the Cubs do a whole bunch of things wrong and it was quite ugly.

On Monday the Cubs continued on their semi-roll with a 5-2 win improving to 7-4 after the break.  Carlos Silva, who had been just 1-4 in his last five decisions, got a win and Carlos Marmol closed it out after doubles by Geovany Soto, Marlon Byrd, and Alfonso Soriano collectively drove in four runs.  The most notable scoring on the night, however, was when in the 6th Ryan Theriot, wearing his socks high for a change of pace, homered to left center.  The homer was his first in 2010 and first since June 2009.  The next night Ted Lilly made his last start as a Cub and sadly it was a loss even though he got a no-decision.  Getting the worst run support in the major leagues, Lilly got none on this night while he was in and had to hang around for 5.2 innings before the Astros started scoring.  The Astros got two in the seventh before Lance Berkman hit a grand slam to open it wide open.  Being a face of the franchise for many years, that would be Berkman's last homer as an Astro before he was traded to the Yankees on Saturday.  A Tyler Colvin homer was the only damage the Cubs could muster against Brett Myers who threw a complete game.  Myers has been terrific for Houston, going at least six innings in every start this season.  Surprisingly, he was not traded but rather will become the ace of the staff after Roy Oswalt's Thursday trade to the Phillies for J.A. Happ and other prospects.  In the finale Randy Wells gave up three of the eight runs the Astros would score in the final three innings.  Carlos Lee hit two homers, including one off the foul pole that sent the fans home with chicken due to a local promotion.  The Astros took two of three.

Friday night in Colorado was all about making history.  That meaning the Rockies scoring 12 in one inning.  After an Ian Stewart homer that cleaned the bases obviously, the Rockies put up five more.  12 in total.  12!  Rockies win 17-2.  Carlos Gonzalez will remember the game Saturday night for his entire life, hitting a walk-off homer that completed the cycle.  Impressively, the Cubs rallied to tie it at five from a huge Derrek Lee homer.  However, the second Rockies cycle in as many years against the Cubs (Troy Tulowitzki did it last year) powered the Rockies to another win.  Carlos Silva was removed in the first inning with an irregular heartbeat and that accurately describes the state of the Cubs right now.  The Rockies got two in that inning before Blake DeWitt, the newest Cub, stepped in in the top of the 2nd.  He hit an RBI double off the wall in right field, putting the Cubs on the board in his first Cubs at-bat.  It was a blowout at 8-1 by the fifth in the Rockies' favor, but the Cubs put together a mad rally.  Alfonso Soriano's solo homer in the 8th put the Cubs within four at 8-4 and the Cubs might have tied it in the 9th if not for Dexter Fowler, who stole Soriano from extra bases.  Byrd scored on the sac fly anyway, but Soriano probably would have made third with the carom of the ball back the center field.  Soriano would have been the tying run.  The Cubs couldn't finish the rally, and were swept.

The only thing I was impressed with on this trip was their ability to rally showed in the last two games in Colorado.  I am a big fan of that because it makes the other team uncomfortable.  You don't want the other team to be able to sit back and relax and not worry if they make stupid mistakes.  Also, this is a huge team confidence and morale builder even if the game is not won.  Everything else about this trip was terrible.  The playoff hopes, slim at the start of the trip, and now gone.  I will make a post soon about the horrible trade that sent Ted Lilly and Ryan Theriot to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Blake DeWitt and two minor leaguers.  I was quite sad at the deal and I was very surprised that Theriot was traded.  To find out why, read the upcoming post which should be posted in anytime from tomorrow to a couple of days from now.    

Homestand Wrapup: Philadelphia, Houston, St. Louis

Record: 6-4

Final Record: 45-54

Games Behind First: 10 GB

The Cubs caught fire on this homestand.  The record may not show it, but the Cubs really started to put everything together in this week of 10 home games, the longest homestand of the year.  With two of the three teams in playoff contention for the past few years, the Cubs would be put to the test.  Ironically, they went 5-2 against those two teams but struggled against the 5th place Houston Astros.

The Phillies came to town after the All-Star Break pretty beaten up.  They're missing Chase Utley, their All-Star 2B, Placido Polanco, Jamie Moyer, whose future in baseball is now in question at 47 years old, and they're also missing consistent production from 38 year old Raul Ibanez.  The Phillies were falling behind the Atlanta Braves and were just trying to hang on until their stars return which will permit them to make a run at it.  Starlin Castro was credited with a steal of home on what should have been a wild pitch to give the Cubs a 3-2 lead Thursday night, and they never looked back.  Homers by Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, and Geovany Soto and two two-run doubles by Aramis Ramirez allowed the Cubs to cruise to a 12-6 victory despite the unreliable Bob Howry giving up four in the ninth.  He gave up two RBI singles and then a two-run homer to Ryan Howard, his second such homer of the night.  Ramirez, already on a hot streak at the time, came up in the clutch Friday.  Trailing 3-1 in the 6th, Marlon Byrd hit a two-run homer to tie the game and then two innings later Ramirez gave the Cubs the lead with a homer of his own.  The Cubs once again overcame a homer by Howard to win.  Saturday had the kind of game that you can't lose when you are a team trying to get back in the race but down a whole bunch of games.  Excitingly scoring in a scoreless ballgame was Starlin Castro in the 7th and the Cubs looked for a shutout.  Carlos Marmol was brought on for the save and the wrong Marmol showed up that day.  He beat himself rather than letting the Phillies beat him allowing five walks to just one hit in only two thirds of an inning.  Four runs came around and just like that Brad Lidge shut the door in a very frustrating loss.  Moving onto Sunday night the Cubs knew a win would be tough off Roy Halladay.  However, the Cubs impressively jumped on him supporting Tom Gorzelanny with a homer from Soto in the second, a four-run inning.  Later, Soriano homered to drive in two including himself.  The Phillies made it 6-3, but a five-run 7th opened the game wide open.  Halladay went just six innings, an unusual low for the veteran, as the Cubs took three of four from Philly.

The Astros aren't having a season to remember.  Filled with a few overpaid veteran contracts with guys past their prime and minor leaguers with little talent rushed to the bigs, the Houston franchise is pretty out of sorts right now.  Years of neglect to develop talent in the minors is hurting them badly as the franchise is in 5th place.  The Cubs really wanted a series win against a poor team like this.  Carlos Silva struggled badly in the 1st Inning of the game Monday night, allowing five in his only inning pitched.  Jason Castro hit a three-run homer in the 3rd, his 2nd career homer and that gave the Astros an unbelievable 8-0 lead. Soon enough, however, the Cubs offense started to piece together a rally.  Two runs had already scored for the Cubs in the game when Tyler Colvin hit a solo shot, followed by Aramis Ramirez launching a two-run homer that really was amazing in the moment because the Cubs offense didn't usually fight back like they did Monday.  Four runs put the game out of reach including a homer from Chris Johnson, his first Major League homer.  Tuesday night the writer witnessed the best home game for the Cubs all season.  The Astros, in their red alternate road uniforms like always, got another early lead this time for six runs.  Ramirez hit a solo homer to chip into the lead that looked somewhat meaningless at the time.  Chris Johnson hit another homer, his second in as many days, and that negated Ramirez's cut into the lead.  Wesley Wright, making his first career start for Houston, really ran into trouble in the 5th.  A passed ball after a strikeout of Xavier Nady brought in a run, and then a Starlin Castro RBI groundout, and then another homer for Ramirez, this time a three-run homer.  Just like that, it became a 7-6 game.  The Cubs took advantage of their momentum now with Geovany Soto hitting a huge tater to center over the Batters Eye lounge (447 feet!) to tie it up.  But the Cubs weren't done yet.  Derrek Lee picked up three RBI over the next two innings and Alfonso Soriano added an RBI single, and that set the stage for history.  Coming up with a 11-7 lead, Aramis Ramirez batted with two on and an excited crowd backing him for what would happen next.  Another fly ball went zooming into the night, and Ramirez incredibly got his third homer of the night!  He is the first Cub to do that since Alfonso Soriano did it in Cincinnati in 2008 after he did it in Atlanta in 2007.  Ryan Dempster joked after the game about not getting the win despite watching his team score 14.  For the finale the Cubs became frustrating again because they were not able to get a hit when they needed to.  Tied at 1 almost the entire game, the Cubs put runners on base in the bottom of the 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th including multiple runners in all except the 10th.  If they had scored in any of the first three innings mentioned, it's game over.  But no, the Cubs did like they always do and they let the other team just sit and hang around until they come back and beat you.  Interestingly Soto hit a two-run homer in the 12th but it was too late and the Cubs lost by one.

A frustrating series loss to Houston gave the Cubs an off day to stew in their anger before the rival Cardinals came to town.  These games would prove to be crucial with the Cubs chasing them in the division, down by 11 games at the start of the series.  On Friday afternoon, Randy Wells gave the Cubs pure greatness forgetting his catastrophic start his last time against the Cardinals.  He allowed hits to the first five batters and didn't record an out back in May.  Wells went seven shutout innings to earn the win supported by homers from Colvin, Soto, and Soriano all of whom appeared pretty hot this homestand.  Colvin hit another leadoff homer on Saturday, pretending to be Soriano, but the lead didn't last long.  Tyler Greene singled in two runs, but that lead didn't last long either.  Starlin Castro hit his first Wrigley Field homer to give the Cubs the lead again 3-2.  A critical wild pitch in the 5th with a ball that was thrown away proved extremely important as the 6-3 lead would prove necessary as the Cardinals crawled their way back to 6-5 in the 8th.  The Cubs pulled out the nail biter however, Carlos Marmol picking up the save.  If the Cubs could sweep Sunday night on ESPN then they would be just eight games back of the Cardinals.  After an early 2-0 lead for St. Louis, the Cubs came back with rallies in the 4th and 5th.  Albert Pujols homered in the 6th to tie it, locking up the score for extra innings.  Again the Cubs wasted opportunities and Felipe Lopez burned them with a go-ahead homer in the 11th for the win.

The Cubs could have easily been 9-1 on this homestand.  The only game where they were truly beat was the one on Monday night against the Astros, and even then they put up a great fight.  But little issues like Carlos Marmol on Saturday and offense hitting with runners in scoring position didn't allow the Cubs to make as much progress as they would have liked.  As I said before, the Cubs to are looking better and beginning to put things together but the Astros series this week in Houston certainly isn't promising.  They'll be put to the test against a good team in the Rockies this weekend at Coors Field, where the Cubs are 38-36 all-time.