2012 Cubs Preview: Management/Intangibles

The days of the celebrity manager are gone on the North
Side, but Dale Sveum is a respectable guy who will
get things done.

New staff onboard for rebuilding process

Changes are all around the Cubs management heading into this season.  In the dugout, most of the team coaching staff has changed.  Bullpen coach Lester Strode is the only member of the staff who has been there since before 2010.  The rest of the staff consists of manager Dale Sveum, hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo, pitching coach Chris Bosio, first base coach Dave McKay, third base coach Pat Listach, bench coach Jamie Quirk, bullpen catcher Andrew Lane, and another bullpen catcher who is apparently yet-to-be-named.  

In the grand scheme of things, these coaches may seem irrelevant, seeing as it's the players who determine how many games the team actually wins.  Keep in mind, however, that these major league ball players aren't just superstars in their own world; they are on a sports team, and subject to orders of their coaches.  Unless you're name is Aramis Ramirez, you're going to listen to many of the pieces of advice your coaches give you.  Either that or you can take it up with the AAA coaches.

Plus, these coaches could also be on their way to higher positions in baseball.  Not all of them turn out to be great successes, however, as waving a runner home is definitely different than motivating a rebuilding team into the playoffs.  Not even two years ago, though, a certain Mike Quade was still to be found standing at third base whispering in the ears of Cubs players.  Like I said, not all of them turn out to be great successes.

It was time for some change down there.  I do believe that the manager has far, far more influence on the team than any other single coach.  A manager makes the calls on playing time so players want to impress the manager, while still staying as far away as possible.  It's nearly impossible to tell if success or failure of a team takes responsibility on the coaches.  For example, Jaramillo came to the Cubs widely regarded as the best hitting coach in the league, fresh off leading famous Texas Rangers teams to leading the league in category after category year after year offensively.  In Jaramillo's two years as Cubs hitting coach, it's been hard to tell the difference as the offense has stayed mediocre.  

Pitching coach Chris Bosio works with Matt Garza.

Off the field, the Cubs are in good shape.  I've talked a lot about president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer; they know what they're doing in this rebuilding process and will do what it takes to get us there.  I just hope fans keep faith as this process will take time.  Meanwhile, however, they'll set us up with some interesting pieces to look at.  Third baseman Ian Stewart is intriguing.  If he has a 30-homer season in Chicago, which he is certainly capable of, people will know his name.  Because right now, the new Cubs are unknowns.  It used to be easy; Ramirez and Lee were the starting infield corners for seven years.  But Stewart and LaHair?  It doesn't have the same ring.  It will, though, and if it won't, then Hoyer and Epstein will find someone whose name will resonate with the fan base.  That's how you know the Cubs are in good hands.

A problem for this team is speed.  The 2012 Cubs will not steal many bases.  They will definitely be the bottom 10 teams in the league in steals.  If Joe Mather beats Tony Campana for the last spot on the roster, then the Cubs will be in the bottom three.  

In fact, offense overall will be a struggle on this team.  54 home runs from a year ago walked out the door when the Cubs let Carlos Pena and Aramis Ramirez walk.  Stewart, LaHair, and Anthony Rizzo are capable of reaching that number, but they are certainly not known commodities like the previous two.  Give Hoyer and Epstein credit for taking a risk on a couple of relatively unknown players.

Pitching-wise, this season will be an interesting one.  The starting pitching will not be particularly good, but at least the players in it play a role in the team's long-term plan.  This is why I would suggest to never start veteran Rodrigo Lopez or setup man Jeff Samardzija.  Last season, a lack of depth saw the Cubs need to scramble Ramon Ortiz, Doug Davis, and Lopez as stopgaps in an emergency injury stretch.  Hopefully that will never, ever happen again.  The newer starters for the back end of the rotation in Travis Wood, Chris Volstad, Paul Maholm, and more, all have a future with the Cubs.  This way all of their experience earned now can impact the future Cubs teams, and not the retirement home or another team.

Many are saying that "it'll get worse before it gets better" for the Cubs.  I have to disagree.  Record-wise, I would expect a similar finish to last year.  In the vibe of the team, however, there will be a knowledge of a bright future ahead.  The festive Wrigley atmosphere knows that better days are coming.  Last year, the desperation deals for Matt Garza and Pena caused confusion and didn't really leave the Cubs an identity.  They weren't ready to contend, but just made two aggressive moves as if so.  This year, the idea is rebuilding.  Whether or not Sveum wants to accept it (which he doesn't), that is the plan, and there will be no more desperation moves that cleans out our farm system - at least, not for a while.          

Cubs Trade Carlos Zambrano; Acquire Chris Volstad

Carlos Zambrano

Earlier this week GM Jed Hoyer finally rid the Cubs organization of Carlos Zambrano in a one-for-one swap with San Diego.  Theo Epstein said a while ago that Zambrano would be given a fair chance to earn his job back in Spring Training, but now he won't get that chance.  Epstein probably didn't think that Hoyer and himself would be able to trade him.  But they did, and the Cubs will receive 25-year-old right-handed starter Chris Volstad in return.  The Cubs will pay $15 of Zambrano's $18 million due in 2012.

Although this move, while wildly uneconomical, was probably the right move for the Cubs, part of me is saddened that the famous antics of the Big Z will no longer grab headlines in Chicago.  Part of the whole deal seemed fitting for the Cubs.  Zambrano playing in Chicago seemed to bring up a punch line.  Failed expectations, dysfunctional play, 100 years without a championship, and now the 'ace' takes swings at the Gatorade cooler -- every year?  It was that teeth-clenching type of frustration at times, but it was relentless entertainment.  Right when you thought he had cleaned up his act, there he was again abusing that poor, innocent energy drink dispenser or barking at Derrek Lee.

Recently it's been easy to forget that he was once a relied-upon ace.  2011 was actually his first season with an ERA over 4.00.  Back in the day, though, he was one of baseball's up-and-coming star pitchers.  At age 22 he broke onto the scene for good with the 2003 dream team Cubs.  He pitched over 200 innings and would again each year until 2007 and won 13 games, a total he would surpass each year until 2008.  He hasn't done either since, instead finding himself in the doghouse, the bullpen, and the disqualified list (a list I didn't know existed in baseball until he made it on) at various times over the past three seasons.  He simply needs a change of scenery.  Finally he gets one.

Chris Volstad

Instead of getting some random single-A prospects with no chance of making it to the bigs, the Cubs get a legit starter with over 100 major league starts under his belt.  His ERA over the past three seasons, each full seasons as a starter, is 4.88.  Not necessarily impressive; that's actually worse than league average.  However, he is still young and has room to improve.  After three seasons in Florida his development appears to have slowed; a change of scenery could end up being very good for him as well.

Standing tall at an intimidating 6'8", Volstad attempts to pound batters inside but it's much more effective on righties.  Lefty batters have been an issue for Volstad since the beginning.  Righties are also a major problem for him when he gets behind in the count.  When behind in the count, Volstad goes to his fastball 74% of the time.  Batters are hitting .310 off it.    His changeup, off which hitters are hitting only .221, is his best pitch but he only throws one 15% of the time.  His put-away pitch as of right now is a decent curveball but I hope new pitching coach Chris Bosio helps him mix in the changeup more.  That would also make the fastball more effective.

I'm excited to see what Volstad will do.  There's much more room for improvement with him than Zambrano at this point.  It's been a fun decade with the Z, but this was the right opportunity.  In Volstad I'm very pleased with the return.  Don't stop now, Jed and Theo.  

Road Trip Analysis: St. Louis, San Diego

It's been a tough season for the Cubs, but you won't hear
National League hit king Starlin Castro complaining.

Record: 2-4
Final Record: 71-91

Starlin Castro just narrowly missed his 200th hit of the season at home, but he didn't waste any time in St. Louis as he singled to center to lead off Friday's game, making him the youngest Cub ever to get 200 hits and only the second Cub to do it since Ryne Sandberg in '84 (Juan Pierre also did it in '06).  Castro finished this season with 207 hits, tying him for the 9th-most hits in a single-season by a Cub.  He is the third Cub in seven seasons to be the NL hit king after Derrek Lee in '05 and Pierre in '06.

Ryan Dempster kept the Cubs in that game which was a 1-1 tie in the 8th when Alfonso Soriano blasted a three-run homer into the left-center bullpen off Kyle McClelland.  Castro, not to be overshadowed on his special night, hit an RBI single in the 9th.  The Cubs won 5-1, putting a big dent in the Cardinals' wild card hopes, but as we found out later, it wouldn't matter.

The win did matter for the Brewers, however, who watched the end of the game with their fans on the scoreboard at Miller Park.  With Carlos Marmol closing out the game, the Brewers won the NL Central.  The Brewers don't often root for the Cubs, but this was a worthy exception.  I thought it was pretty cool that we were the team to down the Cards and basically give the Brewers their division championship.  I guess that's our one gift to them in exchange for our fans invading their ballpark to watch the Cubs crush the Brewers on their home turf for most of the last decade.

On Saturday, the Cardinals were down to their final strike multiple times in the bottom of the 9th against Marmol and down 1-0.  Marmol walked three, walking in the tying run and allowing the winning run to score on a wild pitch.  A loss for the Cardinals would have meant the end of their season in all likeliness, and looking at the way things played out, if Marmol had just thrown strikes and gotten the save, the Braves would have been won the Wild Card.  So in a way, the Brewers and Cardinals are both indebted to the Cubs for helping them out with their postseason aspirations.  I just wish they could've slammed the door on the charging Cardinals to get some pride back, because they have basically walked all over the Cubs this season, winning the season series 10-5.

Two clutch homers late off Randy Wells helped
the Cardinals get into the postseason.

Albert Pujols still hasn't said anything significant on whether or not he will resign with the Cardinals this offseason.  Just in case he leaves, the Busch Stadium fans gave him a standing ovation before his first at-bat Sunday, which could have been the final Cardinals home game of the season.  It wasn't, however, so more standing ovations will come in the playoffs.

For the second straight day, the Cubs blew a late lead.  This time it was on the starter, Randy Wells, who gave up a game-tying homer to Yadier Molina in the 7th and a go-ahead shot to Rafael Furcal in the 8th.  These inexplicable meltdowns on two consecutive days the Cardinals need to win provided all the evidence I require: I can now undoubtedly say that the baseball gods are frowning upon Cubdom, and are punishing its players and fans with the humiliation of letting the Cardinals into the playoffs.  I'm not a very religious guy, but in baseball, I might as well be evangelical.  Play the game right, and the baseball gods shall reward.

The Cubs were shut out by Mat Latos on Monday night in for the 10th and final time on the season, down from 15 times in 2010.  Mike Quade played "the kids" in the lineup, featuring Tony Campana, Bryan LaHair, Steve Clevenger, D.J. LeMahieu, and Tyler Colvin namely.  Seeing as the Padres allowed two hits all night long, the results speak for themselves.

Alfonso Soriano flips the bat watching
his 26th and last homer of the season
Tuesday night in San Diego.

On Tuesday night the Cubs got their 71st and final win of the season.  Matt Garza got back to .500 at 10-10 and Soriano and Aramis Ramirez both hit their 26th homers of the season in the 6-2 win.  Although Garza deserved better, 10-10 is a solid record off which he can build next season.  It was nice to see one final, complete win where the Cubs thoroughly beat the opponent with clean baseball (they committed no errors).

The last game of the season is always an emotional affair for me.  No matter how bad the Cubs are in a season, I have to watch most, if not all, of the season finale.  There's a certain sense of finality in baseball that I don't see in other sports - not a bad thing, but interesting.  Baseball's 162-game season is such a long grind, it's really incredible to sit there on my couch and think about how this team right in front of me has played 161 games already this season.  Even though this season finale was a blowout loss (a season-ending loss for the Cubs for the fifth year in a row) and I was distracted by the historic Wild Card Wednesday, that doesn't mean I enjoyed it any less.  On the last day of the season, I focus on the nuances of the Cubs players and I just listen to Len and Bob, taking in all in the sights and sounds of my team to last me a long and cold Chicago winter.

Smiling in the dugout always means something good
but there wasn't enough of it in 2011.

The game itself was a nice sendoff for the Padres, who decided to break out the bats despite scoring the second-least runs in the National League in 2011.  Nick Hundley's three-run homer and Wil Venable's grand slam were more than enough to finish the Padres season on a winning note.  Interesting enough, the Padres win totaled their season record at 71-91.  What was the Cubs' record?  Guess.

Now that the regular season is over, my coverage of the postseason will dominate blog entries this month.  Not to be overlooked, however, will be my 2011 Cubs: Season In Review and the 2011 Cubs Awards posts coming up in the next few weeks.  For all of those who have been reading my rants and babbles and complaints and thoughts and whatever other noun you can come up with to summarize my posts on the Cubs this season, I thank you all!  Record readership is a signal to me that I must've done something right.  While you have the spare time, check out my latest creation on Sporcle!

Homestand Analysis: Houston, Milwaukee

Starlin Castro narrowly missed
getting his 200th hit at home.

Record: 4-2
Final Record: 69-87

Carlos Lee, despite all odds, has actually had a really great season.  Call me crazy, but the Astros former outfielder (now part-time outfielder and part-time first baseman) has a WAR this season of a full 7.0 points higher than last season!  For comparison, Ryan Braun's 7.2 WAR is 4th in the NL.  Unfortunately for Lee, however, his WAR last season was -2.5, making this season's at 4.5.  Still a very impressive turnaround, and the move to first base definitely hides his defensive weaknesses.  His defensive WAR this season is up 4.0, from -2.0 to 2.0.

Lee hit a solo homer in Friday's game at Wrigley Field for what should have been the only run off Matt Garza.  Even though it was only his 17th of the season, he has been very clutch and improved his walk rate to the point where his OBP improved nearly 50 points compared to last season.  With two outs and two strikes in the ninth on Lee with a 3-1 Cubs lead and a man on base, Lee tagged Garza, who was a strike away from a complete game win, for a two-run game-tying home run.  Marlon Byrd drove in the winning run with an infield single in the 12th.

Despite Lee's great season, the Astros have undoubtedly been the worst team in baseball.  Even though they haven't won the division since 2001, their franchise history reveals that even when bad, they've managed to stay mediocre and avoid disastrous, 100-loss seasons.  Only eight times in the franchise's 50-year history has the team finished with more than 90 losses.  But this seasons, all bets were off and the 'Stros were on pace to lose around 115 games even in May.  Although they definitely won't lose that many now, they lost their 100th on Saturday against the Cubs.  Rodrigo Lopez dominated and Bryan LaHair homered for the go-ahead run early but the lead stood 2-1 at the end.

Bleacher fans celebrate the last home win of the season.
Attendance was down for the fourth year in a row at
Wrigley, but hope is on the horizon this offseason.

Ryan Dempster had one of his typically awful first innings on Sunday but calmed down after that, giving up just those first three runs.  In the 8th, a three-run homer by Carlos Pena appeared to give the Cubs a 4-3 lead, but official review revealed the ball bounced off the yellow rope which divides the home run line and came back into the park, which is in play.  The tying (Starlin Castro) and go-ahead (Pena) runs had to stay at third and second, respectively.  Byrd failed once again with runners in scoring position (surprise, surprise) and that was the only chance the Cubs would have.  The Cubs took two of three, but should have swept.

Geovany Soto drove in all five runs on Monday night against Milwaukee on two homers and a single.  His first homer got onto Waveland Ave, making him the first Cub to reach Waveland this season.  Jerry Hairston Jr. homered off Casey Coleman for his only earned run, and Carlos Marmol performed his routine over-dramatization of a 'save' with a four-run lead by allowing Casey McGehee a 9th inning homer then putting on a few baserunners.  But with the tying run at the plate, the Cubs escaped, winning 5-2.

Mike Quade expects to be back next season, but the
new GM will probably have other (better?) ideas

Tuesday's game was a mess as los Cerveceros put up four on Randy Wells in the 4th inning.  Wells' late season hot streak is definitely over.  Castro was the only Cubs run in the 6th when he homered off Shaun Marcum, who was otherwise practically untouched.  Aramis Ramirez left early with an injury in what could be his last game at Wrigley as a Cub.

In the final home game of the season Wednesday afternoon, the Cubs passed 3,000,000 in attendance.  At 3,017,966 (an average of 37,258), the Cubs just barely passed the mark for the eighth year in a row.  Although 3,000,000 is a great feat achieved by a lucky bunch of larger-market teams, the extra empty seats at Wrigley was no secret.  Through April and May, it didn't look like the Cubs had any chance to get back to 3M, but consistent crowds of 39,000+ in the summer months pushed it through.

In 2008, the Yankees and Mets both had over 4,000,000 in attendance, but higher ticket prices and a recession saw no more 4M teams since.  There won't be any of them this season either; not even close.  The Phillies, MLB's attendance leader, would have to have around eight more home games to reach that.    This season, seven teams have reached the 3M mark and the Angels will by the end of the season.  The first seven in order are the Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Twins, Red Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals.

Matt Garza celebrates his complete game win
to close the 2011 home schedule.

D.J. LeMahieu doubled in two in that home finale as part of a 7-1 blowout.  Byrd hit a three-run homer and Garza got his complete game this time, ending the home season on a high note.  Castro, hot in the pursuit of 200 hits on the season as the NL's hits king, had three chances to get it but was intentionally walked, grounded out to short, and walked.  He got his 200th leading off Friday's game in St. Louis, so not to worry.

The last road trip of the season features St. Louis and San Diego.  The Cubs can really hurt St. Louis' playoff chances with even one win, which they got Friday night.  The Padres aren't playing for much, but the Cubs should be able to close out the season with a series win there.  It's hard to believe the Cubs are done at Wrigley in 2011, but Opening Day feels like years ago.  Watching baseball at Ye' Olde Wrigley was less fun than usual without an alcoholic aid...but big change is coming this offseason and it definitely won't get any worse than it was this season.  Financial flexibility will make us a better team next season, so I foresee games at Wrigley being a significantly hotter ticket next summer than this one.

Homestand Analysis: Pittsburgh, Cincinnnati

Cubs catcher Koyie Hill awaits the throw from Reed
Johnson to tag Edgar Renteria out at the plate late in
Wednesday's game.

Record: 3-3
Final Record: 62-81

As weird as morally wrong as it sounds, the Pirates marched into Wrigley Field last weekend as the statistically better team.  Being a young Cubs fan, I still felt the Cubbies mysterious aura of superiority against the Bucs, seeing as they've had it for, like, the last 20 years.

But the Pirates came to play.  Recently called up starter Brian Burres' only blemish was a Carlos Pena home run before the Pirates bullpen was perfect for nearly four innings, holding their 3-1 lead to the end.  A typical, forgettable game which wasted a great start from Ryan Dempster.

Derrek Lee returned from the DL on Saturday and started at first for Pittsburgh.  His only two homers as a Pirate came against the Cubs in that four-game series in early August, which was actually his Pirates debut.  His third homer also came against the Cubs, a grand slam off Carlos Marmol in the 9th of a 5-3 game.  The Pirates took the lead and the win thanks to Marmol finding yet another method to lose a game.  This was his ninth blown save of the season, an unacceptable mark by any measurement.  After being fooled last season, I've come to the conclusion that he isn't made to be a closer.  Marmol is an 8th inning guy, and should be treated as such for the rest of his career.

You know the whole 'get in front of the ball' tactic coaches
teach outfielders starting in T-ball?  Apparently Alfonso
Soriano (still) hasn't gotten the technique down.

Marlon Byrd picked up two RBIs and Randy Wells won his seventh game of the year as the Cubs beat Pittsburgh to end the season series between the teams, with the series ending tied 8-8.  Next came the Cincinnati Reds, out of the pennant race and relevance again as the NL Central will have a different champion for the fourth year in a row.

Dontrelle Willis made his first start at Wrigley Monday afternoon since May 29, 2007, except this time he started for the Reds.  After a sharp first few innings, he lost it during a rally in the 5th inning, where five straight batters got on base.  The Cubs' 4-1 lead barely held up to the 9th, when Marmol rebounded with a 1-2-3 inning, which was surprising to say the least.  Vegas oddsmakers must be stumped on how to gauge this guy.

Mike Leake started Tuesday, and the Cubs basically gave him a complete-game shutout.  Swinging way too aggressively, the Cubs were hanging on to their last hope in rookie Bryan LaHair in a 2-0 game with a man on when LaHair launched a ball onto Sheffield to tie the game with two outs in the 9th.  The Cubs would lose in extra innings, but this LaHair dude is some kind of exciting.  38 home runs this season alone in the Minor Leagues?!  His power numbers are unheard of and were leading the Minors by a wide margin when he was called up.  At 28, many would call him a late bloomer.  But with this ridiculous power, I hope he finds a bench spot on the roster next year while they decide which defensive position for him will cause the team the least damage.

The Reds were the ones who came back on Wednesday, but the 3-3 tie game was short-lived.  Pena launched a three-run monster blast over the bleachers.  Marmol got save #33 and the Cubs took the series from the Reds.  This series was very tight and each game came down to the end, but I really liked the starting pitching they displayed here.

The Cubs now need to go 19-0 the rest of the season to get to .500, 14-5 to match last season's record, and 11-8 to avoid losing 90 games this season, which is big from a moral standpoint.  Given the easy schedule remaining, hopefully it will be somewhere around the third option, as the first two are unrealistic for this team.

Next up for the Cubs is the Mets in New York, where they haven't played since April 2010.  The streak of not playing there for that long was the longest among NL teams.  Because of September 11, the Cubs and Mets, two teams well out of contention, will be ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.  I can't remember the last time ESPN showed a September game between two teams a combined 40 games out of their divisions or whatever.  Not that I'm complaining, but the producers definitely were hoping it would be the Yankees hosting the Rangers or some other contender for the ceremonious ten-year September 11 shindig.  Hey Cubbies, just don't embarrass yourselves on national TV like you have a knack for doing these days (see: Starlin Being Starlin?).

Big Z's Cubs Future

Carlos Zambrano in Atlanta, right after he was thrown out
for throwing at Braves 3B Chipper Jones.

Whether or not he pitches for the Cubs again isn't the real question


The latest blowup by Carlos Zambrano came a year after he took anger management classes as a result of his blowup before that.  Locating his pitches effectively when he returned, Zambrano went 8-0 to finish the season, which had Cubs fans thinking the man had finally reinvented himself.  Instead, he's been inconsistent and generally mediocre all season long, including a dismal strikeout rate.  He now finds himself on the 30-day disqualified list with no pay (not that he needs any) and his future with the Cubs is in jeopardy.  But the real question is, how will he be remembered by the fan base that made him what he is now?

Zambrano vs. Michael Barrett, 2007.

Zambrano's history of emotional temper tantrums goes way back.  His most notable incidents include numerous outbursts in 2006, his dugout brawl with catcher Michael Barrett at Wrigley in 2007, his 2008 attack on the Gatorade cooler at Dodger Stadium after giving up a three-run homer to Matt Kemp, his 2009 performance at Wrigley against Pittsburgh where, after being thrown out, he threw out an umpire then fired a ball from home plate to deep left field, his dugout yelling match with first baseman Derrek Lee over Lee not diving for a ball in 2010 at The Cell, and finally throwing at Chipper Jones twice in the same at-bat after giving up back-to-back homers and five homers in the game.

Zambrano vs. Derrek Lee, 2010.

Throughout all of this, Big Z has actually been a great pitcher over his 11 year career, all with the Cubs.  A homegrown prospect out of Venezuela, he asserted himself into the rotation as a 22-year-old on the 2003 team with a 3.11 ERA.  Eventually he became the ace for most of the mid-2000s despite his emotional problems.  His career record today stands at 125-81 with a 3.60 ERA.  Excellent for a homegrown prospect, no?  But of course, Cubs fans don't think of him in this way.  Instead, we wonder what could have been if he was able to control his problems at a young age.  Could Zambrano have won 20 games and/or a Cy Young?  Most definitely.

The daily warmup ritual with 5'7" Mike Fontenot.

If Zambrano pitches for the Cubs again, I think the fan base would get over this incident to some degree, just like they have all the incidents past.  However Tom Ricketts said on the ESPN broadcast on Sunday night that he has "a hard time seeing that happening," and with good reason.  If Zambrano never pitches in a Cubs uniform again, he will be remembered in a foggy cloud of potential and frustration.  I hope it's the first option.

Once he clears the 30-day disqualified list, I hope the Cubs let him back into the rotation for probably three or four starts, which is all that will be left in the season.  The ending in Atlanta is too abrupt for a veteran like Z, and I think it would be good for the fans and team to let him have one last (peaceful) goodbye before the team moves on.  This offseason, the new GM will probably come in with a no-tolerance-for-misbehavior attitude, and show it off by dumping Zambrano.  Whether this means releasing him or miraculously finding a taker in the trade market, the end will probably come at the end of this season for the big guy.

While I understand the anger fellow Cubbie fans have felt at Zambrano for all of these years of inconsistencies and questionable decisions, I know I'll be one who misses him for many reasons.  The awkward kill-the-ball swing that got him 23 career homers.  Zambrano pinch-hitting at Wrigley to a standing ovation out of entertainment and laughter.  The pointing to the sky coming off the mound which never seemed to help his anger issues.  Firing fastballs past the game's best hitters pack in the old days.  Breaking bats over his knee.  The bunt singles.  The traditional whack-a-mole warmup routine with Mike Fontenot.  The obscure, Red Bull-influenced injuries.  His insistence on wearing the blue alternate jerseys.  Even watching his BP sessions.  The overall energy and character that made the Big Z truly earn himself a place in Cubs history, for bad or (usually) good reasons.  And of course, the no-hitter against the hurricane-relocated Astros in Milwaukee.  Even if they drove us crazy mad, thanks for the good (and bad) times, Carlos.

A great teammate for the most part, smiles and jokes
were always in abundance during a day at the office for Z. 

  

Changing Landscape on the Central Front

The Milwaukee Brewers are 19-2 in their last 21 games and now hold a seven-game lead in the NL Central over the Cardinals, a 12.5-game lead on the Reds and 14-game lead on the Pirates, but the story was drastically different not even that long ago.  On July 24, all four teams were within four games of first place in what was MLB's tightest division.  Now, however, the trade deadline seems to have separated the leaders significantly.

The Brewers, who acquired Francisco Rodriguez most notably before the deadline, are the obvious favorites to win the division now.  The Cardinals swung Colby Rasmus to the Blue Jays in a three-way trade that landed them Edwin Jackson.  In my opinion, this was a very bad move.  While Jackson could be  great rotation depth for a team that has lacked it this season and seasons past, Rasmus was too good to be traded, whether he gets along with manager Tony La Russa or not.  The Cards also acquired Rafael Furcal as a rental to start over Ryan Theriot.  The Pirates released Lyle Overbay after he was replaced by Derrek Lee and acquired Ryan Ludwick in two moves that appear to have backfired as they have dropped out of contention.  The Reds did pretty much nothing at the deadline and have dropped out of contention.  

What does all this mean?  It means that the Brewers should be the only team of the four to make the playoffs.  But if the Brewers don't make it far into the playoffs this season, they might not get another chance.  In case you haven't heard, Prince Fielder will be a free agent after this season, and the Brewers have little to no chance of resigning him.  According to sabermetrics, teammate Ryan Braun is actually slightly more valuable now to the Brewers than Fielder is (since 2007, Braun's 24.8 WAR beats Fielder's 19.1).  But sabermetrics, or any kind of metrics for that matter, can't measure clubhouse influence.  Fielder has played in Milwaukee since 2005 (two years before Braun arrived) and is the heart of soul of an underrated Brewers team.  Fielder showed real promise as a rookie in 2006, then broke out in 2007 with 50 homers, nearly winning MVP and putting his team in contention most of the season.  He nearly single-handedly woke up the Brewers from their early-to-mid-2000s slumber, and his loss to this team would be huge.

Just seven hours down the road is St. Louis, home of Albert Pujols and the Cardinals.  Pujols' WAR since 2007 is 38.0, making Braun and Fielder look mediocre.  Pujols is the longest-tenured player on the Cardinals and probably has been the best player in baseball since entering the league in 2001.  His consistent power and plate discipline for an entire decade has gone untouched until this year, when he landed on the DL in June.  But Pujols is still the best player on the team and one of the best in the league, and his upcoming free agency is a bigger story than Fielder's.  

Although the Cardinals have a better chance to sign Pujols than the Brewers do to sign Fielder, something tells me that Pujols has not been totally pleased with the loyalty shown to him by his front office in recent years.  The exclusive free agent period open for resigning players is not very long after the World Series, and I highly doubt a deal with any team will be done before he's officially open on the market.

The future of the NL Central will be dictated to a certain extent by where Pujols and Fielder land.  If they both walk in free agency, their teams will take a big hit and the power balance in the division will shift.  But the question is, who will be ready to take it?  The Cardinals will still have Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman to control the power department, while the Brewers will still have Ryan Braun and Casey McGehee, but the key cog would be missing on both teams.

Meanwhile, the rest of the division has an opportunity here.  The Astros don't have any talent ready to win, so they won't be taking advantage.  The Pirates got too many unexpected seasons from their pitchers to expect to compete again next year, unless they get some major help from the minors or free agency.  The Reds were supposed to be much better this year behind the power duo of reigning MVP Joey Votto and Jay Bruce.  If they could just add some pitching, they could take the division back next season.  That leaves just the Cubs, who aren't expected to contend next season but could if they sign Fielder or Pujols and add the correct mix of youngsters to the group.

The bottom line is that with Fielder and Pujols possibly on the move this fall, the NL Central, baseball's unfairest division, will be slightly evened out, at least for a couple years.   

              

Four Nights in August

After the big 10-game road trip started off so terribly for the Cubs, dropping all three in Milwaukee and the first two in St. Louis, it seemed hopeless to think any positives could be taken from it.  But after a surprising win on national TV Sunday night in St. Louis, the Cubs came to Pittsburgh for a four-game series and did something they hadn't in over 50 years.

On the other side of Chicago, the story unfolding at the same time was nowhere near as bright.  In fact, some of the ugliest baseball the White Sox have played in quite some time.  The fact that the Yankees' only loss in Chicago in 2011 came against the Cubs is extremely rare; actually, that's never happened before.  The Sox were completely incompetent against the Yanks this season, and the series appeared to give the Sox little postseason hope remaining.

Outscoring the Pirates 24-15 and outhomering them 10-5, the Cubs took all four games for the first time since 1959 to incredibly break even on the trip.  While this series probably represents the only bright spot on an at-first atrocious 10-game swing, plenty of positives can be taken from it.

The Cubs beat the Bucs in all four games, they beat them in pretty much every fashion that a team can be beat.  On Monday the Cubs scratched together runs from sacrifice flies and fielder's choices and such, winning a tight battle 4-3.  On Tuesday, the Cubs blew them out in humiliating fashion with six homers in the first four innings!  Geovany Soto, Aramis Ramirez, Marlon Byrd, Tyler Colvin, and Alfonso Soriano (twice) all went yard as the Cubs won 11-6.  In all my years of watching baseball, I have never seen such an amazing power display.  On Wednesday, there were 16 total runs less scored than in the game before; just one.  A classic pitcher's duel between Matt Garza, the most under-appreciated starter on the planet and Charlie Morton, scrub, was destined for extra innings when Starlin Castro homered to help his cause for National League Player of the Week honors, which he ended up winning.  Final score: 1-0.  On Thursday the Cubs pulled out with an early lead, only to blow it and then make a marathon comeback in the 8th to win 7-6.

This compilation of victories is nothing short of a masterpiece, and will not soon be forgotten by this writer.  The term 'textbook' baseball applies.  This sweep effectively knocked the Pirates out of postseason contention, not just because of the four losses, but because of the drastic effect the losses must have had on the team morale.  The Pirates did go out and acquire Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee at the deadline, but these moves appear to have backfired and the NL Central is now a two-team race.

After the White Sox were swept by the Yankees, they handily swept the Twins in Minnesota.  In reaction, a panelist (and Sox fan) on CSN wondered why his team is 'doing this to me again', referring to the Sox blowing important games and look hopeless only to win games out of nowhere and be back in contention in no time.  The panelist just wished the Sox would lose and stop toying with their fans' minds.  When a team's own fans want the team to lose, the team has definitely been through some confusing and ridiculously aggravating stretches.

The Yankees series was one such stretch.  A lifeless stretch for the Sox saw all four starters get the loss in Jake Peavy, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Phil Humber.  The Yankees also played around with different variations of beatdowns, in the form of a blowout (18-7), a tight win (3-2), and simple superiority (6-0 and 7-2).  The series left the Sox in third place behind the Indians and Tigers by a total of 6.5 games.

As a Cubs fan, obviously I'm very pleased with the outcomes of both series.  Although this is probably not a harbinger (in that the Cubs will probably go back to consistently and the Sox back to hovering in a tentative in-contention holding pattern), it was fun while it lasted for sure.  And it probably isn't going to happen again anytime soon, so I am taking advantage of this for all it can be.  Not just the four-game sweeps on both sides of town (and winning on the right side, no less), but the authenticity of the the wins provides a lesson: in how many ways can a team beatdown another?  A comical and interesting question in the same, and it was definitely explored by our two Chicago teams last week.        

Homestand Analysis: Florida, Philadelphia, Houston

Record: 5-5
Final Record: 42-60

Fresh off a trip to the All-Star Game, Starlin Castro returned to Chicago to rejoin his team for a four-game set against the Florida Marlins, who were making their last trip to Chicago under that name before they become the Miami Marlins next year.  The Marlins went out with a bang too, taking three of four games and outscoring the Cubs 27-13.

Two of the three losses should have been wins for the Cubs, and only one of those two was actually the Cubs' fault.  A typical Carlos Marmol ninth inning implosion blew the lead and the game in both teams' first game after the break on Thursday night.  After a win on Friday and a blowout loss Saturday, the Cubs were robbed of at least extra innings by second base umpire Lance Barrett, who blew the call on a pickoff play that would have gotten Kerry Wood out of a serious jam in the 8th.  Wood and the Cubs were livid, but there is no instant replay on those calls and they just had to deal with it.  Wood went on to walk in the go-ahead run and the Cubs would never get the lead back.

While losing three of four to Florida might have seemed bad, the Cubs had an even taller task ahead of them when the Phillies came to town on Monday.  But for the second year in a row, the Cubs beat Phillies ace Roy Halladay and opened off the series with a surprising win.  Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena added home runs in the game.

While Ramirez and Pena and known sluggers, it would still be a surprise to see one of them homer of Phillies southpaw Cliff Lee, widely regarded as one of the best pitchers in baseball known for his impeccable control.  But it was a kid with five career homers heading into the game who would homer off the veteran Lee on this night.  Castro's two-run first inning blast gave the Cubs a lead that would hold up until the 8th, when Sean Marshall blew it on a double by Chase Utley.  As I've mentioned in previous posts, Mike Quade has taken a lot of blame for leaving in pitchers too long.  Perhaps preparing for potential extra innings, Quade left in the demoralized Marshall to pitch the 9th, and a two-run double by Michael Martinez gave the Phillies a lead they wouldn't give back.  The mistake by Quade was inexcusable, and I was highly disappointed that this problem still plagues Quade.

After the Phillies finished their series win with a blowout in nothing-to-see-here fashion, the stumbling Houston Astros came to Wrigley Field.  The Astros had gone 9-3 in their last 12 games at Wrigley Field before this series, but that was certainly bound to change.  This year's version of the Astros is unprecedentedly bad and on pace for around 110 losses, which would be a franchise worst.  In fact, the Astros have never lost 100 games in the franchise's 50 year history, but that will change at this rate.  And a sweep from a fifth-place Cubs team definitely won't help them avoid it.

The Cubs took the Friday matinee by power, as Alfonso Soriano and Ramirez had key homers to take it 4-2.  Randy Wells, pitching for his life in the rotation, came through with just one run allowed Saturday and was allowed to stay in the rotation.  Marlon Byrd and Geovany Soto joined the homer party in support.  Speaking of homer party, Carlos Lee gave the Astros the lead 4-3 on Sunday with a shocking two-run homer in the 8th.  Lee, a notorious Cub killer, has 36 career homers against the Cubs, which is 17 more than he has against any other opponent!  But my immediate reaction to Lee's homer on Sunday was, 'Isn't this guy too old for this now?!'  Lee's homer, just his eighth of the season, was quickly forgotten by Cubs fans, however, as a Soriano single tied the game just a half-inning later.  In the 10th, Jeff Baker singled to left to win the game and begin the walk-off celebration.

And just like that, the Cubs took their first three-game sweep of the season.  Oh, and that was also their first three-game winning streak in nearly four months of baseball.  See, it wasn't that hard guys.  Does it really count against a team like the Astros?  For our purposes, yes.

For how ugly the homestand started, you have to give the team credit for rebounding and sweeping the Astros.  But the Cubs should have taken three of four from the Marlins and two of three from the Phillies, counting the game that Marshall and Quade unintentionally colluded to blow.  Counting the sweep of the Astros, that would've been an 8-2 homestand.  But the past is the past, and as the all-mighty Da Coach says, the past is for cowards.  Point being the Cubs have to take the positives and work forwards to have any chance of a late-season rebound like last year's.  

Steve Bartman: Painfully Innocent

Before you read this post, make sure to check out this amazing story written by ESPN detective/writer Wayne Drehs in 2005.  This is one highly informative piece of writing and pretty much the closest anyone has gotten to having a full interview with Steve Bartman.  This baseball comedy news website posted an interview with Bartman in 2008; this is fake, but interesting nonetheless.  There is some truth in that story, like the fact that Bartman was at Game 3 of the 2007 NLDS in Arizona.  Although not proven, it is believed by many that he was there.  ESPN will document the game in their 30 for 30 series; the episode comes out sometime this summer or fall. 

Steve Bartman is an innocent man.  And when I mean innocent, I mean just like any other guy at ballpark.  And here's why: if you were sitting where Bartman was during Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS against Florida and Luis Castillo's foul ball came flying to within three feet of you, what would have done?  You would have done the exact same thing that Bartman did; reach out for the ball.  Therefore, the fact that Bartman himself is an enemy at all is a matter of coincidence.  Bartman was just at the wrong place at the wrong time.  It's unfortunate that this had to happen to someone like Bartman, because as Drehs mentions in his article, Bartman is a diehard and devoted Cubs fan, even now while living in societally-imposed exile.  There's nothing you can do but feel bad for him, but then again we must remember; it was us, Cubs fans, who put him there in the first place.

I present to you the three reasons why the Cubs lost Game 6, none of which blame Steve Bartman:

3. Bernie Mac's Singing of the 7th Inning Stretch
It is an honor to sing the 7th Inning Stretch at Wrigley Field.  It is more of a honor there than any other ballpark in the Major Leagues because there is a celebrity conductor every single game.  Typically, the guest conductors keep it simple with 'Let's get some runs' after the singing.  But Bernie Mac had to go and take it to another level.  He had to go and change the words in the song to 'Root, root root for the Champs' and jeopardize the entire thing.

You would think that given the enormously pressured circumstances, Mac would have just not have tried something crazy like that.  But I guess not, and it couldn't have done anything to help the Cubs at all whatsoever.  With a 2-0 lead in the 7th inning, it wasn't even that sure of a thing that the Cubs didn't blow it anyway.  Overall, Bernie Mac screwed with the baseball gods, and as they always will if not treated with respect, they'll make you pay. 

2. Moises Alou's Reaction to Bartman
Any Cubs fan can probably replay the video again and again in their head.  There's Luis Castillo slicing the ball to the opposite field and tiptoeing out of the batter's box, followed by the Alou failing to catch the ball because of Bartman, and then there's Alou coming back down to the ground and slamming his glove on his knees and having a fit over not catching the ball.  As painful as a memory that is, it's important to remember whose blame it actually was instead of just scapegoating Bartman.

Not only did Alou's reaction contribute to the collapse that ensued for the rest of the Cubs, it effectively ended the public life of Steve Bartman.  And here we are, eight years later, and Alou has never apologized to Bartman.  If Alou had just walked away like a regular outfielder, Bartman's name would be unknown to the rest of the world.  But Alou reacted terribly, like some six year old throwing a fit because he lost.  Fans and the sports community have never blamed Alou nearly enough for what he did in that situation, but Bartman is the man who he is today solely because of Moises Alou.  Alou originally blamed Bartman for the incident, but took back his words in 2008, saying "You know what the funny thing is?  I wouldn't have caught it, anyways."  Alou's nonchalant attitude clearly shows he has no understanding of what he did.  This is because he either doesn't care or is too stupid to figure it out.  Most likely it's the latter, considering how dumb that reaction was in the first place.  Moises Alou, you owe that man an apology.  Man up and do it.

The negative mood that Alou left after the play definitely stuck around for the rest of the inning.  Because the player got upset, his teammates and the fans got upset.  Making his teammates upset and distracted probably also affected the next reason for the collapse.

1. Alex Gonzalez's Fielding Error
If not for Bartman, this play would be the play known for the collapse of the 2003 Cubs.  It would have been the 'error heard 'round the world'.  But Bartman had already taken all the attention by the time Gonzalez added to the Cubs' problems and his play has been all but forgotten.

The situation for the error was only a short while after Bartman entered the spotlight.  With one out and Juan Pierre on second, Luis Castillo fouled off the Bartman ball.  After the at-bat resumed, he walked on a wild pitch which sent Pierre to third.  Ivan Rodríguez followed with a single, scoring Pierre, bringing up a young Miguel Cabrera.  Now leading 3-1 and Marlins on first and second, it would be a perfect spot for a double play ball.  Sure enough, Prior got one.  The chopper reached Gonzalez, who could have turned it for an easy 6-4-3 double play, but Gonzalez angled his glove awkwardly and bobbled the ball.  He wasn't even able to get a single out and this left runners on every base with one out.  Derrek Lee would then tie it with a two-RBI double, and the rest is history.

Just try to imagine what getting this double play would have meant.  The 8th inning would have been over, sending the Cubs into the 9th with a 3-1 lead and Joe Borowski, who had blown only four saves all year, to close it out.  The Cubs would have gone to the World Series if Gonzalez had made this play.  There, I said it.  If Bartman hadn't gotten in the way of Alou, there's no way of knowing for sure if Alou would have even made the play.  I think the chances of Alou catching that ball were 50-50.  Gonzalez, on the other hand, made only 10 errors all season in 2003.  His defensive WAR was 0.8.  The error he committed right at that time is the most inexplicable thing I have ever seen in the game of baseball.  I guess the only answer is the baseball gods abhor the Cubs.  They gave us 2003 to toy with us, and now leave us with a frustrating franchise with little hope of getting back to where we were soon.  Any way you look at it, the 2003 Cubs infamously collapsed.  And it had nothing to do with the warranted villain of that collapse, Steve Bartman. 

2011 Profiles: Carlos Zambrano

Which Carlos Zambrano shows up to play?


Writer's Take: This is probably the fourth consecutive Spring Training in which this has been the main question with Zambrano.  In past years, it's been the exact same situation every year.  In 2007, 2008, and 2009, Zambrano would go on hot streaks where he could be as dominating as any pitcher in the league with his mix of a great fastball and decent offspeed pitches (July 2007: 5-1, 1.38 ERA in 39 innings).  But he would also suffer months in which he struggled every start (August 2007: 0-4, 7.02 ERA in 29.1 innings), leading to him getting angry and taking it out on umpires, teammates, and/or assorted dugout equipment (just ask the poor Gatorade dispensers at Dodger Stadium and Wrigley Field).  His inconsistency and temper flares have frustrated Cubs management again and again.

In 2010, something was finally done about it.  Zambrano had already been relegated to the bullpen due to ineffectiveness out of the rotation after just four starts when the Cubs took action.  After his annual blow up of the year, a one-sided shouting match in late June with Derrek Lee in dugout of US Cellular Field after Lee didn't dive for a base hit that ended up contributing to a three-run homer, Zambrano was placed on the restricted list.  He wouldn't pitch again until over a month later in Colorado.  But he made it back in to the rotation on August 9th, and turned many heads with his play.  He went 8-0 in 11 starts after he returned with a 1.41 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 70.1 innings.  He did walk 40, but his control was much better than it had been in quite some time.

Scouts picked up on his control improvements, and labeled it in a way that hadn't been thought possible with Zambrano.  For probably the first time since 2006, Zambrano was actually locating pitches and putting his gameplan around that.  From 2007 to the first half of 2010, he had been living on his power fastball and dropping in offspeed pitches, doing just enough to fool batters.  He was the kind of pitcher who made the catcher's glove move considerably on every pitch, but it was okay because he had enough pure stuff to make up for it.  At 29 years old in 2010, his fastball stopped hitting 94 and 95 mph and would top out around 91 or 92 most days.  So he improvised.  He transformed from "a thrower into a pitcher" in one scout's words.  He's less of a strikeout pitcher than he once was, but getting ground balls leaves less risk for hits than high challenging fastballs.  So while Carlos Zambrano has been more of a perennial question mark than any player not named Mark Prior, Zambrano's mix of newfound anger management expertise and newfound control-focused pitching skills should make him a strong #2 starter for the Cubs.

Ideal Production: 13-15 wins, sub-4.00 ERA, sub-4 BB/9 and 7 K/9.

Expert Opinion: Bruce Levine of espnchicago.com wrote an article on Zambrano's tutoring of fellow Venezuelan Carlos Silva.  Zambrano's tutoring is probably gaining him respect in the Cubs clubhouse.  Plus, he's probably learning a bit himself from his teammate.

 

2011 Profiles: Carlos Pena

The Profile posts, which begin with this one on Carlos Pena, will continue for the rest of March as the Cubs' 2011 season approaches.  Each one focuses on an individual player with a key question pertaining to the player at the beginning, right below this paragraph in this case.

Can Carlos Pena prove that his glove and power will outweigh the unsightly number of strikeouts and the low batting average he produces?

Writer's Take: Simply, I think he will.  Pena has never homered at Wrigley Field, but he and those bleachers should become acquainted in no time.  I think it says a lot about somebody, either him or the Rays or both, that he was able to hit .196 on the season and still hit 28 homers and 84 RBIs.  If it says anything about him, it should be that he is basically an all-or-nothing type hitter who isn't going to go on any extended hitting streaks.  His walk total (373 since 2007) is nice, but his strikeout total (628) and batting average (.238) are not.  If it says anything about the Rays, it's that they felt significantly safer with Pena than Dan Johnson, the next in line for the job last season.  Pena's fielding is one of the top reasons why the Cubs even acquired him in the first place, and his skills will definitely be an improvement over those of Xavier Nady or Tyler Colvin.  Derrek Lee's strong fielding at first base probably made the Cubs front office realize that great fielding at that position is an asset valuable to the team, especially considering how Starlin Castro struggled fielding last year.  Pena provides stability defensively as a guy who has been at first base for a long time and not someone converted to the position like Nady or Colvin.  The acquisition of Pena meant the Cubs no longer needed Nady, and he signed with Arizona.

Right field at Tropicana Field is friendlier to lefties than Wrigley Field's right field is, but those howling winds which are obviously not a factor in the dome should make things interesting.  Pena also was not a good hitter within his own division; you can't blame him considering the talent the Red Sox, Yankees, and even Blue Jays have rolled out in recent years.  A move to the friendlier NL Central will do him some good.  Pena has to be a consistent power hitter for this experiment to work; a slump-buster who can wake the offense out of its tri-weekly mid-game nap.  Pena has something that the Cubs front office was surely looking for in patience and plate discipline for a team that lacked it on the 2010 version.  Basically, strikeout or no strikeout, Pena is a guy who goes up to the plate with a plan and makes adjustments to it on the fly.  Starlin Castro, whose lack of plate discipline was notable in his rookie season, could use some of that adjustments stuff.  In a lineup where three of the starters are unproved and raw offensively in Castro, Colvin, and Blake DeWitt, Pena's arrival should show results through other players, too.

Ideal Production (what the Cubs need from him to win): .250+ batting average, 30+ homers, 80+ RBIs, 90+ walks, .375+ on-base percentage.

Expert Opinion: While I may think Pena will be effective in what will probably be his one and only year on the North Side, ESPN.com's A.J. Mass doesn't agree.  Pena could be a bust like Mass suggests, or Pena could be one of the best bargains of the offseason.              

  

Hot Stove Buzz #6

After a sad start to their offseason, the Tampa Bay Rays have turned it around and made some moves to possibly keep themselves in contention after all.  After watching the majority of the talent on the 2010 Rays leave in Rafael Soriano, Dan Wheeler, Carlos Pena, Randy Choate, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Dioner Navarro, J.P. Howell, Brad Hawpe, and Carl Crawford all leave via free agency, the outlook for the 2011 Rays looked bleak.  But in the last week, the Rays and their fans have gotten some hope in the form of the signings of Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez, and Felipe Lopez.  Damon and Ramirez, former teammates on the Red Sox, both won World Series rings in 2004.  Damon got another one with the Yankees in 2009, although both have been all over the postseason in the past decade.  Lopez has never been in the playoffs, but has the same winning attitude that Damon and Ramirez have which is exactly what the Rays are looking for.  While I think Damon and Ramirez have a lot more potential remaining for offensive production, the motivation and confidence of the two have come into question in recent years.  Lopez has not had these problems, but definitely doesn't bring as much to the table at the plate or in the field.

When first reading that the Rays were close to signing such big names as Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, clients of superagent Scott Boras no less, I was surprised.  I'm sure many other fans were too, seeing as they are the Rays and have only been mentioned in the same breath as winning in the past three years.  However, after further review, the Rays actually have a history of going after high profile veterans.  Remember which team Wade Boggs got his 3000th career hit with?  Which team sluggers Jose Canseco and Greg Vaughn played on together in 2000?  Which team was the front runner to sign Barry Bonds after his finish with the Giants in 2007, although a deal was never reached?  Prior to now, it would be hard for me to see why a free agent would want to come to Tampa Bay considering how bad they were for the majority of the 2000s, but perhaps it was seen as a rebuilding challenge for an old veteran wanting a challenge.  Other recent news and notes:

-Jermaine Dye would rather retire than play in the Minors, a preference he also had last winter.  The Cubs and Brewers both gave him Major League offers last winter, but he didn't sign with either and sat out the season.  "I'm still working out.  I'm still in shape.  I'm still motivated," said Dye, although many teams aren't sure motivation is enough for him to earn a Major League contract offer.  Now 37, many scouts aren't sure Dye can hit well enough to deserve a full time job.  After a strong first half, Dye's second half of 2009 was very bad and that doesn't help his cause now either.

-In Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com's chat with fans regarding the Cubs and White Sox, there were a few interesting ideas thrown out there.  A fan asked Levine if the Cubs were "any closer" to signing shortstop Orlando Cabrera, to which Levine replied that he hadn't heard anything suggesting so.  But this sparked that idea to me; why not sign Orlando Cabrera to play second base?  Currently, the Cubs have three potential seocnd basemen in Blake DeWitt, Jeff Baker, and Darwin Barney.  DeWitt is only 25 but has little potential, Baker is 30 but never really had any potential unless he's facing a lefty, and Barney has potential but has little experience.  In a wacky and wild idea, the Cubs could dump DeWitt and Baker to anyone who will take them and let Cabrera and Barney man second base.  Just an idea.

-Albert Pujols on the Cubs?  Another idea from that chat is to have the Cubs make an aggressive push for Albert Pujols next winter.  Quite an interesting idea, especially considering the Cubs will have the financial flexibility to do it.  Prince Fielder will also be a free agent and has actually been realistically mentioned by experts as someone the Cubs could go after.  Could signing one of these two be the reason Carlos Pena was given only one season?  Will Tom Ricketts be aggressive enough to go after one of these two?  And finally, with Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena, and Micah Hoffpauir gone after 2011, who else would play first base in 2012?

-While the Cubs wanted to upgrade defensively at first base by signing former Ray Carlos Pena, the Rays also wanted to upgrade defensively by signing the best defensive first baseman of all time in Casey Kotchman.  That's too bad, because no matter what they'll have to downgrade after Kotchman.

-Alexei Ramirez was handed an extension of 4 years, $32.5 million with the White Sox.  At around $8 million per year, Sox fans are calling it a bargain.  It might be considering his offensive production power-wise is great for his position, and although he doesn't steal bases too well he is great defensively.      

"The Most Inexplicable Trade Ever?"

Now that the well-publicized Vernon Wells to the Angels for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera has sunk in for more than a week, I think it's time we compare.  Is this deal the worst trade of the offseason?  Of the decade?  Ever?

The worst trade in the recent history of baseball before the Wells deal is, in my opinion, when the Expos traded Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore to the Indians for Bartolo Colon back in 2002.  Colon had won 75 games over the past six seasons with the Indians, while none between Phillips, Lee, or Sizemore had even debuted in the Major Leagues.  Sizemore was just 19 at the time.  Colon went on to win 10 games for the Expos in 2004, then leave as a free agent that very offseason.  His WAR for that half season was 2.3.  In their respective careers, Phillips, Lee, and Sizemore have totaled a 51.9 WAR in the Major Leagues, although the Indians trade Phillips and eventually Lee also.  The bottom line is that the Expos sent their three best prospects for just one player in return, a 'rental' at that, seeing as how they knew Colon would be a free agent after that very season.  Clearly, it wasn't worth it.

Brandon Phillips has not gotten the most attention out there, but he quietly produces on the now-contending Reds.  His best season came in 2007, his second full season manning second base for Cincinnati in which he had a 30-30 offensive season, earning him some MVP votes.  He's been a consistent 20-20 player since 2006, but his run production took a step backward in 2010.  He was also thrown out 12 times to only 16 steals, but the 30 year old has lots of time to keep producing for the Reds.  His attitude and teammate chemistry make him a very valuable part to a Cincinnati Reds team that now depends on his leadership to contend.

Cliff Lee has arguably been in more trade/free agency rumors than any other player since 2009.  Playing for four teams in two seasons, Lee has become quite the hot commodity over this time.  Perhaps his most highly regarded trait is his control, something GMs scramble to acquire.  Lee walked just 61 in 444 innings between 2009 and 2010.  This is exactly the player Lee could have become playing for the Nationals, assuming they could sign him to an extension.  In 2005, just three years after the trade, Lee finished fourth in Cy Young voting with an 18-5 record and a 3.79 ERA.  The 2005 Nationals were a contending team in the first half, but lacked rotation depth and faded in the second half so Lee would have probably helped them become a winner.

Grady Sizemore was a 20-20 player in his first full season in 2005, at the age of 22.  He continued this trend until 2008, when he improved to 30-30.  From 2004-2007, he had a 3.7 defensive WAR, a signature characteristic of a five tool outfielder.  Oh, and he also had a 17.2 WAR over that time, followed by a 5.3 in 2008.  Although injuries have derailed his performance the last two seasons, Sizemore was arguably the best outfielder of the mid 2000s.  His combination of power, speed, defense, and enthusiasm for the game were enough to call him probably one of the best players in baseball as well.

Meanwhile, Bartolo Colon's career with his new team lasted a full three months and 17 starts.  The highlight of his tenure with Montreal came on August 19, 2002, when he shut out the Padres at home allowing two hits and two walks on 95 pitches.  Besides that and Colon's 10 wins in that second half, not much came to the Expos in this deal.  Colon signed with the White Sox in the offseason and good season there in 2003, and the Expos were left with nothing.  Essentially, the Expos gave up three future All-Stars in exchange for half a season from a decent starter in a season where the Expos never came close to the playoffs.

While that trade looks bad because Colon was gone in half a season and the other three are having great careers, Vernon Wells will probably have a decent career for quite some time on the Angels.  The fact that Wells is a good player is not being disputed by many; this trade looks worse on paper.  Wells' salary will not make his production worth it, and the Angels gave up the two following players:

Mike Napoli hit 20 homers for the third straight season in 2010, keeping up his reputation as a great power hitter for a catcher.  Napoli has always been a minus defensively, but his bat makes him a valuable commodity to a contending team, especially since power out of the catcher spot is hard to find.  Immediately after being traded to Toronto, the Blue Jays turned around and swung him to Texas.  Napoli is a great player to have on a winning team, which the Rangers figure to be in 2011.

Juan Rivera has also always been a negative defensively, but an effective player nonetheless.  Rivera had his best season in 2009, hitting 25 homers and 88 RBI in 138 games.  He doesn't walk much and probably won't make a big overall impact on a lineup on his own, making his best role a fourth outfielder or third outfielder subject to frequent substitution.

To be sure, Vernon Wells has had a nice career.  He was a consistent cog in the Toronto outfield for almost the entire 2000s.  From 2002-2010, Wells averaged .279 with 25 homers, 89 RBI, 9 steals, and a total 28.0 offensive WAR over that time period.  Despite two subpar seasons in 2007 and 2009, it's hard to look at the stat sheet and not realize he was a great player for some time.  

Now here's where it gets really, really ugly.  Vernon Wells enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2010, swatting 31 homers and 88 RBI.  But even that isn't good enough to live up to his contract.  The 32 year old Wells hit 16 or less homers in both 2007 and 2009 (in full seasons), providing for a real head scratcher as to why the Blue Jays would reward a 'slugger' with those gaping holes in the stat sheet with 7 years, $126 million.  Although the deal was signed in December 2006, it didn't go into effect until 2010, the first year of the deal.  Wells made over $15 million in 2010, but it gets worse.  Wells' deal runs for four more seasons, so he'll be 35 at the end, over which time the Angels are due to pay him around  $86 million.  In 2011, he's due $23 million and will be due $21 million in 2012, 2013, and 2014.  The $23 million he will make next season was higher than any non-Yankee in baseball.  Miguel Cabrera was the only player not playing in New York to earn $20 million in 2010, giving you an idea of what Wells' salary will be compared to.  Remember, although Wells has had some good seasons like 2010, he had two very bad seasons for a player who is being paid to drive the ball and these two seasons were recent.  Look at his stats page, scroll down to the Standard Batting chart, and notice the two seasons I've highlighted in blue.

So he's getting paid.  Like seriously paid.  Big time dough.  All that cash for a guy who's being paid for the run production, but is well past his peak and proof of that comes in the form of those two awful seasons that were 2007 and 2009.  And all that cash for a guy who had his best season, like, eight years ago.  His career highs in games, at-bats, plate appearances, runs, hits, doubles, homers (only 33), RBI, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, total bases, and even times hit by pitch, all came in 2003.  In 2003, he had lineup protection in Carlos Delgado behind him and table setters in Frank Catalanotto and Shannon Stewart in front of him, all three of whom are now out of the Majors.  Heading to the Angels, his only table setters will likely be Howie Kendrick and/or Erick Aybar, and his only lineup protection will be Torii Hunter.  The setup was better on the Blue Jays, and although a change of scenery could help him, his ceiling is low because there's no chance he will do much better than his 2010 output, if he even gets to that mark.  His career high of 33 homers in 2003 is nowhere near the career highs of the sluggers he is being to hit like.

In conclusion, I think the Vernon Wells trade is the worst trade of recent baseball history, worse than the Bartolo Colon deal.  Angels GM Tony Reagins had taken a lot of criticism nationwide for his whiffs on Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Beltre.  This move was, without doubt, a desperation move to try to compensate for missing on those elite players.  But not only does Reagins have to give up two decent players in Napoli and Rivera, he is now stuck with what most baseball experts cite as 'baseball's most untradeable player' in Wells and his enormous contract.  In the Bartolo Colon trade of 2002, Colon was gone by that offseason and although this didn't give the Expos much value, it also didn't tie down their future, either.  Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips all went on to be great players, but it's unlikely the Expos would have been able to resign all three or even two once they became established stars.  And now the Angels will have limited financial flexibility for at least the next offseason due to this contract monstrosity.  So while Wells may be smiling ear to ear to be out of Toronto where he never made the playoffs, Reagins won't be in four years.