2012 Cubs Preview: Starting Rotation

Ace Matt Garza

The name of the game is depth as revamped rotation is stockpiled with veterans, and determination of final two starters is a toss-up

The top of the rotation remains the same from 2011, as Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster will lead the group.  They appear to have switched places on the depth chart, however, as manager Dale Sveum says Garza will start on Opening Day in just his second year with the Cubs.  Dempster started Opening Day last year and enters his seventh season with the team. 

Sveum is correct in tabbing Garza as the team's ace.  His 10-10 record from last season doesn't show it, but he was definitely the best starter on this team as evidenced by his near 200-inning, 200-strikeout performance with a 3.32 ERA.  He received some of the worst run support on the entire league which explains his mediocre record. 

If Garza performs well in the ace role, it will only increase his trade value stock as the season goes on, which is exactly what the Cubs want.  He will be put in prime position to suceed on this season and, hopefully, flipped for high-level prospects at the trade deadline in July.  Garza, 28, is an emotional and vocal team leader in the prime of his career.  It shouldn't be a surprise if GM Jed Hoyer's phone bill balloons due to other GMs inquiring on his availability.  Oh right, most cell providers don't charge for incoming calls anymore.  So much for that, but you get my point.

Ryan Dempster

Then again, a great guy like Garza could be a valuable character to have around on this rebuilding team.  He is definitely the type of veteran around which a team is built.  In 2008, he took his young Rays team on his shoulders to the World Series, winning the ALCS MVP along the way.  When I chatted with Hoyer earlier this month, he told me that, ideally, he'd like to give Garza an extension if the time is right and he's not more valuable as trade bait, which remains to be seen.  I think both plans are viable options, although if he's traded I'll be sad to see him go.

Dempster, 34, is not the standout talent he once was.  After a shocking 200-inning, 200-strikeout season in 2010, he really came crashing back to Earth with a 4.80 ERA in 2011, again eating over 200 innings but also allowing over 200 hits and holding a 1.49 WHIP.  Dempster appeared to lose confidence in his soft changeup and cement-mixer slider.  Perhaps it would help if he didn't throw these pitches to break right down the middle of the plate.  Seriously, though, he struggled to keep these breaking pitches out of the dirt when he took them out of the strike zone and walked 82 batters on the season.

Paul Maholm

The #3 spot right now could be Paul Maholm's to lose.  Maholm has pitched in the Pittsburgh rotation his entire seven-year major league career, posting a respectable 4.36 ERA during that time amid a group that was anything but.  The 30-year-old is coming off the best season of his career with a 3.66 ERA in about 162 innings.  The southpaw is not a strikeout pitcher but he'll force plenty of groundballs with his frequently-used changeup.  Cubs fans have gotten a good look at Maholm since he has always been in the same division.  Alfonso Soriano has four career homers off him, which is more to any single batter besides Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips.  Maholm has only given up 13 career homers to lefty batters, however.

Two other pitchers who will surely get at least some starts this season are new arrivals, Chris Volstad and Travis Wood.  Volstad, who came from Florida in the Carlos Zambrano trade, is a very tall righty who still hasn't found success in the major leagues.  He uses all of his pitches low and inside on righties and lefties; hopefully he'll learn to use the entire plate with skill and confidence.  Hitters hit .310 off his fastball last year; that'll need to improve.  Perhaps he could switch it up with his changeup more often, as he threw his changeup only 5% of the time to righties.  If nothing else, Volstad, 25, adds young depth.

Travis Wood

Wood, also 25, probably has more potential.  In over 100 innings in 2010, he pitched to a 3.51 and but probably deserved even better, posting an impressive K/BB ratio with 86 strikeouts and only 26 walks.  In about the same amount of playing time in 2011, Wood regressed with a 4.84 ERA and a WHIP that ballooned from 1.08 the year before to 1.49.  This lefty should bring more of the strikeout stuff to the majors soon judging from his 8.4 K/9 career ratio in the minors.  He throws his fastball too much (76% of the time last year) but apparently he commands it well, meaning he's very advanced in his development process.  I would take Wood over Volstad any day.

The last legit option, in my opinion, is righty Randy Wells, 29.  Since his impressive rookie debut in 2009, Wells has scuffled through two disappointing seasons.  This is probably his last chance to prove himself.  With the wide range of candidates this year, a 4.99 ERA won't cut it this time.  Something in his mechanics has been lost along the way, as his career 6.0 K/9 ratio is a far cry from the high strikeout totals he used to rack up in the minor leagues.  So far his fastball has been too hittable.

Randy Wells

Casey Coleman, 24, had a strong debut in 2010 as he showed how he can win with minimal strikeouts but a lot of groundballs.  In 2011 he was really, really bad with a 6.40 ERA although his strikeouts were up.  If he wants to win, he'll have to do it the way he did in 2010, using Nationals starter Jordan Zimmermann as a model.  Coleman is definitely a longshot.

Speaking of longshots, there's another one in 27-year-old Jeff Samardzija.  He isn't a longshot because he's not up to the task; rather, he's such a dominant setup man that he's probably better served in the bullpen.  After an unbelievable rookie season in 2008, he was looking like a bust after horrible seasons in 2009 and 2010 switching between the rotation and bullpen.  I was sick of him and wanted him gone.  Instead, he came back in 2011 firmly staying in the bullpen and became one of the strongest setup men in the league, forming the best setup duo in baseball between him and Sean Marshall.  The Cubs will stretch him out in Spring Training to see what he's got as a starter just in case, but it's highly unlikely that he'll move.

The starting rotation in 2011 was the worst in baseball in terms of ERA.  This was definitely because of early injuries to #4 and #5 starters Wells and Andrew Cashner in the first week of the season, which exposed the team's lack of depth and sent then-GM Jim Hendry scrambling to fill a rotation.  Soon enough, Coleman, Doug Davis, Ramon Ortiz, and Rodrigo Lopez were getting far more time than they had earned in the major leagues.  The injuries blew up in the team's face, and it hampered the team's efforts to put together any kind of win streak.  This season, with new additions in Wood, Volstad, Maholm, Andy Sonnanstine, and Ryan Rowland-Smith, there will always be major league worthy arms available.

 

2012 Cubs Rotation: The Odds Game

Keep an eye on make-or-break rotation candidate Randy Wells.

As we head into February of this new year, the Cubs, like most teams, still have much to be decided in their starting rotation.  Thanks to the front office's dealings, there are a host of candidates for a rotation spot.  But which candidates are locks, which are maybes and which are long shots?  Staring at a list of candidates doesn't provide the reader with much information besides their own personal speculation.  I don't have any extra info to release or anything, but I do have a method to make the speculation more fun.  Here I place odds on each starter and his chances (in my opinion) of making the rotation.  The total adds up to 500%, each 100% representing one starter.

Matt Garza: 99% (LOCK)
Barring any trade or a steroid bust or whatever ridiculous idea you can come up with, Garza will be in the rotation from the beginning.  He should start Opening Day, but I have a feeling Dale Sveum will give the ball to his trusty veteran Ryan Dempster.  Still, though, Garza is the ace of the team.

Ryan Dempster: 99% (LOCK)
The Cubs picked up his $14 million option for 2012 even when, according to the new CBA, I don't think they would've lost a draft pick if he had left.  Dempster begins his fifth season in the rotation as a major bounceback candidate after losing his slider last year.  He's a good guy to have around, so he'll be worth it in probably his last year in Cubs blue.

Paul Maholm: 99% (LOCK)
Maholm has started every game of his big league career and won't stop now.  He'll be a solid rotation member, and his groundball strategy makes him a good fit for Wrigley.  No suspense here.

Travis Wood: 70%
Wood has proven himself to some extent in the big leagues with much room to improve.  He'll be the youngest member of this revamped rotation unless Trey McNutt makes some miraculous surge to the rotation.


Chris Volstad: 40%
I'll say the newcomer Volstad gets a fair chance in his first year with the Cubs.  He may not last the whole season considering his skill level, but a decent asset to have.  If not for Chicago, I think he'll be starting games in Iowa.

Randy Wells: 40%
It's been hard to read how the new management will deal with the Wells situation.  Wells is hard-working and a good teammate coming off two mediocre seasons which followed a breakout rookie campaign.  I'm a fan of Wells, but this season could be his last chance in the rotation.

Andy Sonnanstine: 20%
I'm sure Sonnanstine will do just fine with the coaching staff and such, but his signing does nothing to change the fact that he simply isn't a great pitcher at a 5.26 career ERA, and his repertoire doesn't leave much room for improvement at age 29.  He could be a nice flex/spot starter option out of the bullpen, but it'll take an overhaul for him to start all season.

Rodrigo Lopez: 20%
I was against the resigning of Lopez because he doesn't provide the ballclub much of anything besides his on-field display which wasn't very impressive.  I worry that the new regime will take Lopez as a veteran sign of stability.  The right move, however, is to leave him in Iowa.

Casey Coleman: 8%
After a solid trial period in 2010, Coleman got 17 starts last year in an injury-fill in role.  It, umm, didn't go so well.  He finished with a 6.40 ERA, giving up almost 11 hits per nine innings.  Back to Iowa, young one.

Trey McNutt: 5%
The wildest of wild cards!  McNutt is the organization's top pitching prospect despite taking a few steps back last year.  He hasn't even proved himself at Double-A ball yet, but apparently he'll head to big league camp.  Sending him to the majors this early would be a complete train wreck.  Don't even try it.

Why Reed Johnson Should Have Gone Out On Top

I'm probably not on the same page as most other Cubs fans on this issue, but I think there's something to be said against the resigning of Reed Johnson, which took place a couple weeks ago.  So far I've been complementing the Cubs on pretty much all of their offseason moves, including the signings of Manny Corpas and Andy Sonnanstine and the trades of Sean Marshall and Tyler Colvin.  I did have reservations on the David DeJesus deal, but there are some things I like there, like his versatility and consistent approach.  The Johnson deal, however, simply doesn't make sense to me.  I'll explain why.

Johnson will be 35 in 2012, entering his fourth out of five seasons with the Cubs (he played with the Dodgers in 2010).  An unquestioned fan favorite who has a knack for clutch offensive skills and all-out, aggressive defense, he is a fundamentally strong baseball player.  Of the five tools, only his contact hitting and defense stand out.

I was formally introduced to Johnson in June 2005 as he hit a three-run homer at Wrigley Field with the Toronto Blue Jays.  He made a much bigger name for himself, however, once he came to a market that would truly appreciate his talent in the North Side of Chicago.

I have always been a Reed fan myself; it's hard not to be when he's the only one who operates at 110% of his ability on defense.  However, the Cubs just recently had a logjam in the outfield in 2010 as Kosuke Fukudome and Tyler Colvin battled for at-bats in right field.  Seems like the Cubs are asking for another one.  Sure, Johnson doesn't need many at-bats or hardly any starts, but he also shouldn't warm the bench for a week straight.

Personally I'd rather see Tony Campana, who was projected as the fourth outfielder, to fill the role that Johnson will in 2012.  Campana, although raw and unknown in potential, is young and has something to prove, unlike Johnson.  Campana's speed factor, which produced 24 steals in very limited playing time last year, is very valuable to a roster that seriously lacks it.  While Johnson plays hard on defense to the naked eye, his defense stats tell that he doesn't field it like he used to.  Johnson's range factor and fielding percentage were both below league average, not to mention a -.1 defensive wins above replacement compared to Campana's .9, even though Johnson got more playing time.

I don't need any statistics, however, to tell you that Theo and Jed are exercising a youth movement.  New Cubs regulars will include Ian Stewart, Travis Wood, and Bryan LaHair/Anthony Rizzo, all of whom are younger than those that they replaced in Aramis Ramirez, Rodrigo Lopez, and Carlos Pena, respectively.  Even though Johnson is a role player, his role is a misfit to me.      

Cubs Sign Andy Sonnanstine, Manny Corpas

Manny Corpas

Before the new year the Cubs quietly completed a deal to sign starter-turned-reliever Andy Sonnanstine.  Allow me to provide a little insight on the move.

In the grand scheme of things, he provides little to the Cubs.  A 13th round pick of the Devil Rays in 2004, Sonnanstine had an impressive minor league track record with a high strikeout rate and low walk rate.  His ERAs were consistently in the 2.00s and 3.00s all the way up to his breakout season as an innings-eater for the 2008 Rays.  Lately, however, his career hasn't gone so well.  By 2010 he had lost his rotation spot and struggled out of the bullpen facing increasing walk rates and ballooning ERAs.  In 2011 he spent most of his time with the Durham Bulls in AAA, but even there he couldn't recreate his previous success in the minors.  His modest 15 games with the major league Rays was a forgettable stint for sure.

A fresh start could be just what this owner of a 5.26 ERA needs.  Chris Bosio will be tasked with finding a way for him to improve his flat fastball, which he goes to 64% of the time.  Manny Corpas' story is somewhat similar.  Corpas emerged as Colorado's best in the bullpen in 2007 with a 2.08 ERA in 78 innings and a WHIP of just 1.06.  From 2008-10, however, he started giving up too many hits and couldn't keep runners off base.  A 4.62 ERA in 2010 didn't recognize the potential he showed earlier in his career.  Then he missed all of 2011 to injury, and now he winds up here with the Cubs.

Neither move is a big move, but both add experience to a bullpen that will be lacking it in 2012.  I don't think Sonnanstine will last long with the major league club if he even gets on after Spring Training, but Iowa Cubs fans might get a good look at him.  Corpas is simply the better pitcher in my opinion, and I think he will earn a bullpen spot in middle relief.  The athletic 29-year-old Panamanian will be healthy to begin the season so he should take advantage of this fresh start.  Believe it or not, he will be the second-oldest in the 'pen behind Carlos Marmol who is only a month older.  That is unless Kerry Wood signs.

No matter what both pitchers will need some work to return to form.  An early test for Bosio, perhaps.