Billy Beane Marches On

Athletics GM Billy Beane

The Oakland A's just gave Billy Beane an extension through 2019 - but is he still the right man for the job?  Is his celebrity status what's keeping him there?

The Moneyball movie, released September 23 last fall, displayed two perspectives on the Oakland Athletics.  The first one, which was the selling point of the movie and common reaction from the general public, was that the movie celebrated a truly historic and unprecedented story of a comeback team; not only on the field itself, but within the front office.

The other perspective, an underlying and somewhat depressing observation, was a comparison of the 'Moneyball' 2002 A's and the 2011 version.  On the release date of the movie, the A's won in Anaheim in the sixth-to-last game of another losing season, their fourth in five years.  It was a 3-1 final, raising the team's record to 71-86 on the season in standout starter Gio Gonzalez's second-to-last start with Oakland.  The A's had closed out their home schedule the day before with a win over the defending AL champion Texas Rangers - in front of a measly crowd of barely 14,000.  After the game in Anaheim, the A's won three of their remaining five games to finish the season at 74-88 with some young talent, most of which has since been dumped in the genesis of another do-over rebuilding plan.  This is not the first such plan since the A's were last relevant in 2006, and it probably won't be their last in the near future.  At the helm the entire time, however, has been general manager Billy Beane.

Oakland's Famed 'Big Three' (from left):
Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, and Mark Mulder

The 2002 A's were definitely a team definitely that faced failure before the season even started.  The team three major starts in closer Jason Isringhausen, first baseman and reigning MVP Jason Giambi, and center fielder Johnny Damon, as the movie focused on.  What the movie failed to explain, however, was how the A's did still have the best rotation trio in the major leagues in Barry Zito, Tim Hudson, and Mark Mulder besides a quick flash of Hudson.  If you exempt a few seconds showing him making an error, the film also whiffed on mentioning the team's shortshop, Miguel Tejada, who just happened to win the AL MVP that year.  Throw in Zito's Cy Young, and you've got the MVP and Cy Young winners together on the same 103-win team that won its division.  Wasn't this team supposedly struggling?  An example of the legendary tale of the underdog?  If I didn't know better, I would say this was the class of the American League, complete with star power and value deals.

The 2002 AL MVP, shortstop Miguel Tejada

But the movie credits Beane and the fictional Peter Brand as the undisputed saviors with their conservative money-saving approach of finding unsung heroes with the best value.  It's a great approach, but you can't win 103 games if the best players on the team are Scott Hatteberg, Chad Bradford, and David Justice.  You just can't.  There has to be a supporting cast.  It's a humbling, feel-good story that these rejects were made stars in their own way through harnessing their skills of getting on base and, in Bradford's case, maintaining impeccable control.  But it takes a full team effort to avoid 'losing the last game of the season'.

Beane did also play a major role in acquiring the team's other stars, as he drafted Mulder and Zito with the team's first-round draft picks in 1998 and 1999, respectively.  But since this era he hasn't had much luck.  The 2002 LDS loss to the Minnesota Twins was their third consecutive year of being eliminated in the LDS - in the fifth and final game, no less.  They lost the decisive Game 5 again in 2003, this time to the Red Sox.  As is protocol for the cash-strapped A's, the team watched as Tejada had bolted for free-agent money by 2004 and Mulder and Hudson were dealt a year later in a desperation move to stay competitive by acquiring mid-level talent for depth.  Conventional wisdom pegged the team to roll over and die.

Third baseman Eric Chavez

A couple newly-found stars, however, kept the A's in the W column.  Despite major roster turnover in between, the A's won at least 88 games every year from 2000 to 2006, making the playoffs in the first four and last of those seven years.  A new wave of players, including powerful third baseman Eric Chavez, shortstop Bobby Crosby, starter Dan Haren (who had been acquired in Mulder's trade to St. Louis), right fielder Nick Swisher, and lights-out strikeout closer Huston Street emerged to bring Oakland back over the hump and into the playoffs in 2006.  Hell, the team even took a flier on a 38-year-old Frank Thomas, recently ousted from the White Sox, and he gave them 38 homers in a season no one saw coming.  The changing of the guard worked, as Beane, after his team triumphantly beat down the Twins in a three-game sweep of the ALDS, had successfully led the A's back to the ALCS for the first time since the Dennis Eckersley days.

With this quick wheeling-and-dealing, Beane saved his team from depressingly regressing into submission after his star players had past their prime.  Although not all these moves were entirely popular in Oakland, they put the team within a few games of the World Series in 2006.  A truly incredible series of events took place there.  To many he appeared to be demolishing the team by trading away two of the three in the famed 'Big Three'.  Instead, the A's were back and better than ever just a year later.

The years since haven't exactly been smooth sailing.  2007 was a catastrophic year for the Athletics, as the wheels fell off in the form of injuries to Chavez, Crosby, Street, outfielder Mark Kotsay, and starter Rich Harden all hampered the team's performance.  And bam, Beane goes to work.  This time he sends Swisher to the White Sox, Haren to the Diamondbacks, Kotsay to the Braves, and at the trade deadline of 2008 he sent Harden to the Cubs.

It didn't produce immediate results.  The A's suffered through a losing season in 2007 for the first time in nine years, and they had nearly identical results the year after.  Besides the random emergence of power-hitting outfielder Jack Cust, these were not teams to write home about.  Beane wanted to do something about that.

Left fielder Matt Holliday.  Acquired in Beane's push
for a winner in 2009, he didn't even last a full season.

Three quick acquisitions for the 2009 season meant Billy was all in.  Beane brought back a now 38-year-old Giambi in search of a miracle, acquired prime slugger Matt Holliday from Colorado, and plugged in clutch veteran shortstop Orlando Cabrera.  However, Holliday suffered through a power outage and Giambi suffered through an everything-outage.  The movement was ill-fated from the beginning, as the young guns of the pitching staff were nowhere near ready to compete under winning expectations.  Giambi, Holliday, and Cabrera were all quickly disposed of by the start of September, another quick "three-and-out" for our man Billy.


The 2009 season wasn't a total lost effort, however, as some of those youngsters on the pitching staff got valuable experience from their struggles.  Power closer Andrew Bailey even won Rookie of the Year.  The result of this development were impressive performances the next year from starters Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, and Dallas Braden, none of whom were older than 26.  The offense wasn't there, so the A's stayed in mediocrity in 2010.  If the A's could secure some offense, the experts said, Oakland would a be a team to beat in 2011.  As had been the case for a while, the A's had some nice young players but fell short because they didn't have a complete team.  This wasn't necessarily Beane's fault, but evidently his strategies weren't working like they used to.

The situation in Oakland became even more desperate after their cross-bay counterpart, the San Francisco Giants, took home the World Series trophy in 2010.  The resulting loss in market share hurt an already economically-wounded franchise.  As you can guess by now, Beane refused to give up on the team and went back to work again on securing offense.

Left fielder Josh Willingham.  Another one-
and-done impact player.

Beane successfully dragged in designated hitter Hideki Matsui, left fielder Josh Willingham, and right fielder David DeJesus, three under-the-radar veteran offensive pieces.  Matsui and Willingham offered power, while DeJesus offered on-base skills and defense.  Those two joined an offensive core of value players in catcher Kurt Suzuki, third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, and consistent second baseman Mark Ellis.


Right when the A's looked to be in an improved position from the year before on Opening Day 2011, the strength of the team fell apart.  That standout rotation blew up.  While Gonzalez still had a great season, Cahill's ERA ballooned to over 4.00, unacceptable for the ace of a playoff contender.  Braden and Anderson both missed most of the season to injury.  A bust prospect reincarnated in Brandon McCarthy literally came out of nowhere to be the new #2 starter.  The A's payroll of $66 million was the ninth-smallest in the league.  Even that was up six spots from the year before, and four spots up from 2009.

The A's franchise is at a crossroads right now.  Management has been calling for a move to the southern Bay Area for over five years as the team's average attendance at the archaic O.co Coliseum is dismal at best.  The 2011 average of 18,232 doesn't sell out most NBA arenas, and is currently being beat by the nearby Golden State Warriors' average of 18,705.  Of course NBA tickets are more expensive than baseball tickets, so the Warriors are making significantly more revenue on each home date.

Commissioner Bud Selig approved a move to Fremont, California for the A's in late 2006, where the proposed Cisco Field was to be constructed.  Funding fell through, and the plan was scrapped.  Now the A's call for a move to San Jose.  The Comish has been far less decisive this time.  A few months ago, he announced that the A's situation was now a "top priority" for his office to deal with.  Not to give approval, that is, but to make a decision either way.  Meanwhile one of his historic franchises, an original American League franchise founded in 1901 in Philadelphia, is rotting in this state of dismay without the necessary funds to improve the team or the fan base to get these funds.

The proposed Cisco Field, now placed in San Jose.  If
approved now, completion projects to be in time
for the 2016 season.

A move to San Jose is imminent for the front office.  Beane admitted in December that they're building the team under the assumption that they will have a new ballpark there in a handful of years, because they don't have any other choice.  But for the next couple years, there's little hope in sight.  For the umpteenth time as Oakland's GM, Billy Beane again had to hit the self-destruct button.  He let go of DeJesus and Kouzmanoff and traded his budding top two starters, sending Cahill to Arizona and Gonzalez to Washington.  The result is a depleted team with very little elite talent.
        
This latest rebuilding plan will take a few years, and it's a necessary process if the A's want to have a winner in time for the potential move to San Jose.  The plan has already been started by Beane, but should he really be the one to execute it?  As you've read here, Beane had immense success in the early 2000s and a dismal reign since.  The A's haven't had a winning season since 2006.  Some say Beane was given this monster extension under the old 'any publicity is good publicity' theory in that the A's want to keep Beane just to draw attention to themselves.  But under the financial constraints they have seemingly always been subject to, I don't think there's any single better candidate for the job.  Beane has never been afraid to make bold trades and be aggressive in his shuffling, a trait that has served the team well as evidenced by their constant supply of promising young players.  But it's just really, really hard to build a winner under those conditions.  Now get Billy a new ballpark and some cash, and he'll have the team battling Texas and Anaheim for the division every year.

Billy has already started the rebuilding process with the dumping of those aforementioned players.  It's going to get worse before it gets better, as this year's team could easily lose 100 games.  But to let go of Beane now wouldn't make sense.  If ownership were looking for a different approach, Beane would have been fired before he sent away the team's two biggest stars in Gonzalez and Cahill.  Now, they might as well let him finish what he started.

The 2011 All-Division Team, Part 3: AL Central

AL Central SS: Asdrubal Cabrera, one of baseball's
best surprises on the surprising Cleveland Indians

This six-part series resumes with the AL Central.

C Carlos Santana, CLE
I can now say with surprising certainty that Santana is the best catcher in the American League.  Here in his first full season at age 25, Santana dazzled with the bat and should have been an All-Star.  His .239 average is nothing special, but 27 home runs, 97 RBIs and walks (good for a .351 OBP, fantastic for a catcher and highest on his impatient team) confirm his star status.  The Indians remain a team with little power on the roster but Santana by himself can produce runs with the best of catchers.  Competition: A.J. Pierzynski (CWS), Alex Avila (DET), Matt Treanor (KC), and Drew Butera (MIN).

1B Miguel Cabrera, DET (2nd)
It was an oddly quiet season again for Cabrera, who won the AL batting title at .344 and the AL OBP title at .448.  But Cabrera easily could have been the MVP of the league if this wasn't the hardest year to win the AL MVP in who knows how long.  Cabrera finished fifth in the voting.  He 'only' hit 30 homers and 105 RBIs, which might explain the lack of MVP love.  But he did set a career high in walks for the second straight year, finishing second in the AL with 108 and only 89 strikeouts.  Of the 24 players who hit 30 homers in 2011, only Jose Bautista, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Ian Kinsler, and Cabrera walked more than they struck out.  Talk about elite company.  Competition: Paul Konerko (CWS), Justin Morneau (MIN), Matt LaPorta (CLE), and Eric Hosmer (KC).

2B Alexi Casilla, MIN
In an awful, awful AL Central class of second basemen, Casilla is the best, but that doesn't say much.  This race was more about who hurt their team less than helped their team more.  Failed prospect Gordon Beckham and ever-impatient Orlando Cabrera actually hurt their teams with terrible seasons.  Ramon Santiago is a no-offense utility man and Chris Getz needs to use all the muscle he has when he wants to hit it far; for him, that's in shallow center.  Casilla was second the Twins with 15 steals had a good contact rate.  For lack of a better option, I'll take it.  Competition: Beckham (CWS), Cabrera (CLE), Santiago (DET), and Getz (KC).

3B Danny Valencia, MIN
Third base is another weak spot in the division.  Valencia takes the title with 15 home runs and 72 RBIs.  Despite a bad walk rate, Valencia managed a mediocre season in probably the worst hitters' park in the Majors now in Target Field.  He even hit nine of his home runs there, a rare accomplishment so far in the ballpark's two-year history.  No third baseman in the division even managed to hit above .270.  Competition: Brandon Inge (DET), Brent Morel (CWS), Jack Hannahan (CLE), and Mike Moustakas (KC).

SS Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE
Cabrera's role in MLB seemed to be defined heading into 2011; he was an average hitting shortstop with little power and a bit of speed.  That was until he redefined his entire career in his age 25 season of 2011, hitting 25 home runs after never hitting more than six in a season and making his first All-Star team, winning his first Silver Slugger, and even gaining MVP votes.  Cabrera was the biggest individual reason in how the Indians, a projected cellar dweller, rose to first place with an incredible 20-6 start to the season.  His outburst kept Cleveland in contention for the summer until his former teammate Jhonny Peralta and Tigers surpassed them late.  Competition: Peralta (DET), Alexei Ramirez (CWS), Tsuyoshi Nishioka (MIN), and Alcides Escobar (KC).

AL Central LF: Alex Gordon

LF Alex Gordon, KC
It was hard not to feel bad for the highly-touted Gordon, who was supposed to be the next big thing in Kansas City.  In the mid-2000s scouts deemed Gordon would be the best thing to happen to the Royals since George Brett.  Unfortunately Gordon was a bust his first few seasons, but he put it all together in 2011 with a .303 average, .376 OBP, 23 home runs, 87 RBIs, and 17 steals.  His .502 slugging percentage led the team and his swing is one of the nicest to see.  I see now why scouts liked him so much.  Although he is already 27, better late than never.  The Royals are going to be a great team very soon and this is the guy to build around.  Competition: Juan Pierre (CWS), Brennan Boesch (DET), Michael Brantley (CLE), and Delmon Young (MIN).

CF Melky Cabrera, KC
Actually a year younger than his next-door teammate Gordon, Cabrera surprised everyone with an elite season in center.  It seemed his career was on a downtrend after already being shipped out of two franchises upon arrival in KC, but he had by far the best season of his career.  The most interesting part of it, however, is how he did it.  Cabrera has always been a good contact hitter although not necessarily a patient one.  In 2011, though, his walk rate dropped lower than usual and his strikeout output was over 40% of his normal total, and yet he batted .305 with 18 homers, 87 RBIs and 20 steals.  A repeat performance is unlikely, but if there were one, I'd be a fan.  Competition: Alex Rios (CWS), Austin Jackson (DET), Grady Sizemore (CLE), and Ben Revere (MIN).

RF Michael Cuddyer, MIN
I have him listed here as a right fielder, but every day Cuddyer seems to be playing somewhere different. In the last two seasons, he has played at first base, second base, third base, center field, right field, and he even pitched once.  Injuries were the bread and butter of the problems facing the 2011 Twins, but Cuddyer was one of the few that avoided the plague.  He was pressed into duty all over the diamond but still produced offensively at a high level and now has landed himself a real nice contract with the Colorado Rockies.  The 32-year-old also expanded his market in 2011, reaching double digits in steals for the first time and getting his first trip to the All-Star Game.  Even though Jeff Francoeur of the Royals actually had a better individual season, Cuddyer was the only thing that kept the inept Twins from insanity.  Competition: Francoeur (KC), Shin-Soo Choo (CLE), Magglio Ordonez (DET), and Carlos Quentin (CWS).

AL Central DH: Victor Martinez

DH Victor Martinez, DET
To see how much of Martinez's role in his first year with Detroit played, reread Miguel Cabrera's summary above.  Even though Martinez didn't flash power he normally does, he still batted .330 and was clutch for sure, driving in over 100 runs for the fourth time in his career.  Cabrera's intentional walk total dropped 10 from 2010 to 2011, a seemingly small but notable difference.  Martinez was able to drive in all the runs Cabrera couldn't and this made the Tigers offense a triumphant unit all season long.  It's hard to get numbers that certify the value of his lineup protection, especially because a lot of that effect is mental for a pitcher.  But he's there alright, and making a difference.  Competition: Jim Thome (MIN), Travis Hafner (CLE), Adam Dunn (CWS), and Billy Butler (KC).

SP Justin Verlander, DET (2nd)
Best in the division and best in the league according to the baseball writers, who handed Verlander the Cy Young and MVP trophies in a season for the ages for this tall 28-year-old.  He had the best pitching season of anyone since Randy Johnson was doin' his thing in the desert, I think.  The wins continued to pile up in the 24-5 season with 250 strikeouts in 251 innings pitched; Pedro Martinez-type numbers.  There's not much else to be said.  Competition: Mark Buehrle (CWS), Luke Hochevar (KC), Carl Pavano (MIN), and Justin Masterson (CLE).

CP Jose Valverde, DET
'El Papa Grande' entered a realm of his own this season.  The 33-year-old Papa, playing with his third team in five years and going slightly under-the-radar entering this season despite domination to show for his entire career, saved 49 games for Detroit and blew none, earning his second straight All-Star selection.  His antics put a smile on even the toughest of his teammates' gamefaces while infuriating opponents.  A truly dominating closer like Valverde gets into the hitter's mind with the game on the line in the tightest of situations.  He wasn't perfect, but he was as close to it as a closer gets.  Competition: Sergio Santos (CWS), Chris Perez (CLE), Matt Capps (MIN), and Joakim Soria (KC).

MLB's Best Uniforms, Part 1: Home Uniforms

Robinson Cano and the Yankees
check in at #2.

Because two Mondays ago was Memorial Day, you (might) have known what that meant.  It was time for MLB to roll out this year's version of the Stars and Stripes caps that are worn every year on Memorial Day, July 4th, and September 11th.  In 2008 and 2009, all teams wore the same caps, just with their logo on them and weren't given any choice in the matter.  But in 2010, teams were given the choice to do a red or blue bill and logo outline.  The Cubs took red.

The design of these caps was leaked before the design was released by manufacturer New Era just a few days before Memorial Day.  Leaked, as in the Mets decided to wear the caps earlier than scheduled thanks to the Bin Laden events.  And so, feeling patriotic, the Mets wore these for a home game against the Giants just a while ago.  They appear to be pretty much the same thing as last year's version, except that the back is now the same color as the bill.  They appear to be running out of ideas, to be honest.  It's important to remember that although wearing 'patriotic' caps may seem cool, they only exist for more revenue, which is exactly why they insist on making a new design every year.

Anyways, this gets us to the main subject of this post.  This is the first of a three-post series in which I will count down MLB's top ten of each type of uniform (home, away, and alternate).  This is supposed to start arguments, not end them.  Of course, this is being written in my opinion and I want to point out that, maybe because of my age, I'm much more of a modern style of uniform liker and less traditionalist than most.  This countdown only ranks the top ten out of the 30 current home uniforms.  No throwbacks or retro uniforms.  The top ten:

10. Cincinnati Reds

In the late 90s and early 2000s, the Reds were just another of those teams to go BFBS (black for black's sake), meaning they just added black to their color scheme spontaneously because it was a fad at the time.  In fact, the BFBS revolution probably influenced more teams uniforms than any other color fad, ever.  It began fading in the early to mid 2000s, but the Reds didn't unroll these (photo, left) clean, straight up home unis until 2007.  I think this version rivals all other that the Reds have ever had, and considering that the Reds have been a franchise for nearly 150 years, that's an awfully long time.  The black remains, but in a minor role as the highlight color.


9. Kansas City Royals

The Royals are yet another team that went crazy with black after being a royal blue and gold team for the rest of franchise history.  But in 2006, they dropped all black whatsoever.  All that remained was the core uniform that they've always had.  The Royals as a franchise have made tremendous progress since unveiling the new uniforms, from renovating Kauffman Stadium to developing the best farm system of all time to hosting the All-Star Game next season.




8. Seattle Mariners

This is probably not one you would expect to see on a list like this.  And to be sure, this uniform has its share of flaws.  For one, the script is boring.  For two, this looked a whole lot better when they wore this with a teal cap, which they did from 1993 to 2003.  But the Mariners home uniform makes the top ten because it's just so unique.  The blue they use, which I don't even know what to call, looks great complemented by the teal that has sort of disappeared over the last decade but returned with the new teal alternates they have this season.  The humble style of the uniforms are very much characteristic of the organization.

7. Chicago Cubs

Bias aside, the Cubs pinstripes is one of the greatest uniforms around, and that's not going to change soon.  It's also been improved with minor changes over the years.  It's such a classic look that under the Ricketts' 'administration', the Cubs have worn it exclusively at home.  The blue alternate only appears on the road because of the popularity of this uniform.  Also, it's even better this year with the Ron Santo '10' patch on the right sleeve (can't be seen on this photo).


6. Cleveland Indians

Not one you would expect to see on this list, but the Indians just have great stuff all around.  Great stadium, great uniforms, great logo, great fan base, and this year, a great team.  What really makes these worthy of the top 10 is the cursive script on the chest.  Although the design overall isn't the most classic, it's a good mix of old school (the writing script) and modern (the blue piping down the middle).












5. Baltimore Orioles

Does something look different about this uniform when compared to those of the rest of the league?  Maybe it's that there's no red or blue, making the Orioles one of only a handful of teams that don't choose one.  The Giants are the only other team to venture into black-and-orange territory, but the Orioles do it way better.  For once, the black actually seems to fit the orange very well, as opposed to a lot of other teams where it seems forced.


4. Atlanta Braves

Respect the class!  This uniform has all the ingredients to pull off the retro, classic look that they're going for.  Personally, I love the red bill on the cap.  The contrast there is what makes the entire thing work.  In fact, I wouldn't even be opposed to the Cubs wearing their red-billed cap at home.  But I digress.  The blue sleeves make this uniform an equal mix of blue and red.  And although they aren't the most original as the Braves have changed uniforms quite a bit in their history, it sure looks original.








3. San Diego Padres

It seems as if most Padres fans prefer the old lame brown and mustard uniforms, but I beg to ask why a change is even necessary.  The current home uniforms are perfect for all that San Diego is.  Not including sealife like Marlins and (Devil) Rays, the Padres are the only team in the league with a specific ocean reference.  The theme in their logo is the script as a wave and it's terrific.  In fact, the Padres script on the home uniform is hands down the best script in baseball.  Besides that, the uniforms are simple and great.  It's basically navy-on-white with a hint of sand.




2. New York Yankees

This one is a total no-brainer.  Like the Yankees, hate the Yankees, but either way the Yankee pinstripes is one of the most legendary uniforms in the history of sports.  When considering this uniform, consider all that it's meant for baseball as a whole in pop culture and everyday life.  This is one of those aspects about the league that makes it what it is today.  As far as I know, the Yankees have never had an alternate uniform and they've never had to because this is all the franchise will ever need.  It is perhaps the most famous pinstriped uniform, as well as the thickest; technically, the Yankee uniform's pinstripes are wider than those of any other teams'.  Could this be symbolic of the importance of the pinstripes?






1. Los Angeles Dodgers       

Much like the Yankees, the Dodgers have kept things the same uniform wise for quite a while in Chavez Ravine.  Except for this weird one-year experiment back in the late-90s, the Dodgers haven't used hardly any home alternates.  Technically, the white fabric that the Dodgers use is actually the brightest white fabric used on any uniform in MLB.  The Dodgers have done experimenting with taking names off the jerseys, but even now that they do the script is small and a lot less noticeable that most uniforms.  So the Dodgers, much like the Cubs, have done minor tweaks to the uniform but ultimately have kept the same uniform alive for many years.  The result?  A modern, classic and clean looking uniform that goes great with some late-arriving Dodger Dog-eating Dodger fans at good ol' Dodger Stadium.





Thank you for reading my countdown!  Do you agree or disagree with any of the rankings?  Definitely shoot me an email right here.  Happy summer; it could be a long one with these Cubs, so get outside or celebrate the fall of the Miami Heat!        

Steve Bartman: Painfully Innocent

Before you read this post, make sure to check out this amazing story written by ESPN detective/writer Wayne Drehs in 2005.  This is one highly informative piece of writing and pretty much the closest anyone has gotten to having a full interview with Steve Bartman.  This baseball comedy news website posted an interview with Bartman in 2008; this is fake, but interesting nonetheless.  There is some truth in that story, like the fact that Bartman was at Game 3 of the 2007 NLDS in Arizona.  Although not proven, it is believed by many that he was there.  ESPN will document the game in their 30 for 30 series; the episode comes out sometime this summer or fall. 

Steve Bartman is an innocent man.  And when I mean innocent, I mean just like any other guy at ballpark.  And here's why: if you were sitting where Bartman was during Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS against Florida and Luis Castillo's foul ball came flying to within three feet of you, what would have done?  You would have done the exact same thing that Bartman did; reach out for the ball.  Therefore, the fact that Bartman himself is an enemy at all is a matter of coincidence.  Bartman was just at the wrong place at the wrong time.  It's unfortunate that this had to happen to someone like Bartman, because as Drehs mentions in his article, Bartman is a diehard and devoted Cubs fan, even now while living in societally-imposed exile.  There's nothing you can do but feel bad for him, but then again we must remember; it was us, Cubs fans, who put him there in the first place.

I present to you the three reasons why the Cubs lost Game 6, none of which blame Steve Bartman:

3. Bernie Mac's Singing of the 7th Inning Stretch
It is an honor to sing the 7th Inning Stretch at Wrigley Field.  It is more of a honor there than any other ballpark in the Major Leagues because there is a celebrity conductor every single game.  Typically, the guest conductors keep it simple with 'Let's get some runs' after the singing.  But Bernie Mac had to go and take it to another level.  He had to go and change the words in the song to 'Root, root root for the Champs' and jeopardize the entire thing.

You would think that given the enormously pressured circumstances, Mac would have just not have tried something crazy like that.  But I guess not, and it couldn't have done anything to help the Cubs at all whatsoever.  With a 2-0 lead in the 7th inning, it wasn't even that sure of a thing that the Cubs didn't blow it anyway.  Overall, Bernie Mac screwed with the baseball gods, and as they always will if not treated with respect, they'll make you pay. 

2. Moises Alou's Reaction to Bartman
Any Cubs fan can probably replay the video again and again in their head.  There's Luis Castillo slicing the ball to the opposite field and tiptoeing out of the batter's box, followed by the Alou failing to catch the ball because of Bartman, and then there's Alou coming back down to the ground and slamming his glove on his knees and having a fit over not catching the ball.  As painful as a memory that is, it's important to remember whose blame it actually was instead of just scapegoating Bartman.

Not only did Alou's reaction contribute to the collapse that ensued for the rest of the Cubs, it effectively ended the public life of Steve Bartman.  And here we are, eight years later, and Alou has never apologized to Bartman.  If Alou had just walked away like a regular outfielder, Bartman's name would be unknown to the rest of the world.  But Alou reacted terribly, like some six year old throwing a fit because he lost.  Fans and the sports community have never blamed Alou nearly enough for what he did in that situation, but Bartman is the man who he is today solely because of Moises Alou.  Alou originally blamed Bartman for the incident, but took back his words in 2008, saying "You know what the funny thing is?  I wouldn't have caught it, anyways."  Alou's nonchalant attitude clearly shows he has no understanding of what he did.  This is because he either doesn't care or is too stupid to figure it out.  Most likely it's the latter, considering how dumb that reaction was in the first place.  Moises Alou, you owe that man an apology.  Man up and do it.

The negative mood that Alou left after the play definitely stuck around for the rest of the inning.  Because the player got upset, his teammates and the fans got upset.  Making his teammates upset and distracted probably also affected the next reason for the collapse.

1. Alex Gonzalez's Fielding Error
If not for Bartman, this play would be the play known for the collapse of the 2003 Cubs.  It would have been the 'error heard 'round the world'.  But Bartman had already taken all the attention by the time Gonzalez added to the Cubs' problems and his play has been all but forgotten.

The situation for the error was only a short while after Bartman entered the spotlight.  With one out and Juan Pierre on second, Luis Castillo fouled off the Bartman ball.  After the at-bat resumed, he walked on a wild pitch which sent Pierre to third.  Ivan Rodríguez followed with a single, scoring Pierre, bringing up a young Miguel Cabrera.  Now leading 3-1 and Marlins on first and second, it would be a perfect spot for a double play ball.  Sure enough, Prior got one.  The chopper reached Gonzalez, who could have turned it for an easy 6-4-3 double play, but Gonzalez angled his glove awkwardly and bobbled the ball.  He wasn't even able to get a single out and this left runners on every base with one out.  Derrek Lee would then tie it with a two-RBI double, and the rest is history.

Just try to imagine what getting this double play would have meant.  The 8th inning would have been over, sending the Cubs into the 9th with a 3-1 lead and Joe Borowski, who had blown only four saves all year, to close it out.  The Cubs would have gone to the World Series if Gonzalez had made this play.  There, I said it.  If Bartman hadn't gotten in the way of Alou, there's no way of knowing for sure if Alou would have even made the play.  I think the chances of Alou catching that ball were 50-50.  Gonzalez, on the other hand, made only 10 errors all season in 2003.  His defensive WAR was 0.8.  The error he committed right at that time is the most inexplicable thing I have ever seen in the game of baseball.  I guess the only answer is the baseball gods abhor the Cubs.  They gave us 2003 to toy with us, and now leave us with a frustrating franchise with little hope of getting back to where we were soon.  Any way you look at it, the 2003 Cubs infamously collapsed.  And it had nothing to do with the warranted villain of that collapse, Steve Bartman. 

Hot Stove Buzz #6

After a sad start to their offseason, the Tampa Bay Rays have turned it around and made some moves to possibly keep themselves in contention after all.  After watching the majority of the talent on the 2010 Rays leave in Rafael Soriano, Dan Wheeler, Carlos Pena, Randy Choate, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Dioner Navarro, J.P. Howell, Brad Hawpe, and Carl Crawford all leave via free agency, the outlook for the 2011 Rays looked bleak.  But in the last week, the Rays and their fans have gotten some hope in the form of the signings of Johnny Damon, Manny Ramirez, and Felipe Lopez.  Damon and Ramirez, former teammates on the Red Sox, both won World Series rings in 2004.  Damon got another one with the Yankees in 2009, although both have been all over the postseason in the past decade.  Lopez has never been in the playoffs, but has the same winning attitude that Damon and Ramirez have which is exactly what the Rays are looking for.  While I think Damon and Ramirez have a lot more potential remaining for offensive production, the motivation and confidence of the two have come into question in recent years.  Lopez has not had these problems, but definitely doesn't bring as much to the table at the plate or in the field.

When first reading that the Rays were close to signing such big names as Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, clients of superagent Scott Boras no less, I was surprised.  I'm sure many other fans were too, seeing as they are the Rays and have only been mentioned in the same breath as winning in the past three years.  However, after further review, the Rays actually have a history of going after high profile veterans.  Remember which team Wade Boggs got his 3000th career hit with?  Which team sluggers Jose Canseco and Greg Vaughn played on together in 2000?  Which team was the front runner to sign Barry Bonds after his finish with the Giants in 2007, although a deal was never reached?  Prior to now, it would be hard for me to see why a free agent would want to come to Tampa Bay considering how bad they were for the majority of the 2000s, but perhaps it was seen as a rebuilding challenge for an old veteran wanting a challenge.  Other recent news and notes:

-Jermaine Dye would rather retire than play in the Minors, a preference he also had last winter.  The Cubs and Brewers both gave him Major League offers last winter, but he didn't sign with either and sat out the season.  "I'm still working out.  I'm still in shape.  I'm still motivated," said Dye, although many teams aren't sure motivation is enough for him to earn a Major League contract offer.  Now 37, many scouts aren't sure Dye can hit well enough to deserve a full time job.  After a strong first half, Dye's second half of 2009 was very bad and that doesn't help his cause now either.

-In Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com's chat with fans regarding the Cubs and White Sox, there were a few interesting ideas thrown out there.  A fan asked Levine if the Cubs were "any closer" to signing shortstop Orlando Cabrera, to which Levine replied that he hadn't heard anything suggesting so.  But this sparked that idea to me; why not sign Orlando Cabrera to play second base?  Currently, the Cubs have three potential seocnd basemen in Blake DeWitt, Jeff Baker, and Darwin Barney.  DeWitt is only 25 but has little potential, Baker is 30 but never really had any potential unless he's facing a lefty, and Barney has potential but has little experience.  In a wacky and wild idea, the Cubs could dump DeWitt and Baker to anyone who will take them and let Cabrera and Barney man second base.  Just an idea.

-Albert Pujols on the Cubs?  Another idea from that chat is to have the Cubs make an aggressive push for Albert Pujols next winter.  Quite an interesting idea, especially considering the Cubs will have the financial flexibility to do it.  Prince Fielder will also be a free agent and has actually been realistically mentioned by experts as someone the Cubs could go after.  Could signing one of these two be the reason Carlos Pena was given only one season?  Will Tom Ricketts be aggressive enough to go after one of these two?  And finally, with Derrek Lee, Carlos Pena, and Micah Hoffpauir gone after 2011, who else would play first base in 2012?

-While the Cubs wanted to upgrade defensively at first base by signing former Ray Carlos Pena, the Rays also wanted to upgrade defensively by signing the best defensive first baseman of all time in Casey Kotchman.  That's too bad, because no matter what they'll have to downgrade after Kotchman.

-Alexei Ramirez was handed an extension of 4 years, $32.5 million with the White Sox.  At around $8 million per year, Sox fans are calling it a bargain.  It might be considering his offensive production power-wise is great for his position, and although he doesn't steal bases too well he is great defensively.      

"The Most Inexplicable Trade Ever?"

Now that the well-publicized Vernon Wells to the Angels for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera has sunk in for more than a week, I think it's time we compare.  Is this deal the worst trade of the offseason?  Of the decade?  Ever?

The worst trade in the recent history of baseball before the Wells deal is, in my opinion, when the Expos traded Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore to the Indians for Bartolo Colon back in 2002.  Colon had won 75 games over the past six seasons with the Indians, while none between Phillips, Lee, or Sizemore had even debuted in the Major Leagues.  Sizemore was just 19 at the time.  Colon went on to win 10 games for the Expos in 2004, then leave as a free agent that very offseason.  His WAR for that half season was 2.3.  In their respective careers, Phillips, Lee, and Sizemore have totaled a 51.9 WAR in the Major Leagues, although the Indians trade Phillips and eventually Lee also.  The bottom line is that the Expos sent their three best prospects for just one player in return, a 'rental' at that, seeing as how they knew Colon would be a free agent after that very season.  Clearly, it wasn't worth it.

Brandon Phillips has not gotten the most attention out there, but he quietly produces on the now-contending Reds.  His best season came in 2007, his second full season manning second base for Cincinnati in which he had a 30-30 offensive season, earning him some MVP votes.  He's been a consistent 20-20 player since 2006, but his run production took a step backward in 2010.  He was also thrown out 12 times to only 16 steals, but the 30 year old has lots of time to keep producing for the Reds.  His attitude and teammate chemistry make him a very valuable part to a Cincinnati Reds team that now depends on his leadership to contend.

Cliff Lee has arguably been in more trade/free agency rumors than any other player since 2009.  Playing for four teams in two seasons, Lee has become quite the hot commodity over this time.  Perhaps his most highly regarded trait is his control, something GMs scramble to acquire.  Lee walked just 61 in 444 innings between 2009 and 2010.  This is exactly the player Lee could have become playing for the Nationals, assuming they could sign him to an extension.  In 2005, just three years after the trade, Lee finished fourth in Cy Young voting with an 18-5 record and a 3.79 ERA.  The 2005 Nationals were a contending team in the first half, but lacked rotation depth and faded in the second half so Lee would have probably helped them become a winner.

Grady Sizemore was a 20-20 player in his first full season in 2005, at the age of 22.  He continued this trend until 2008, when he improved to 30-30.  From 2004-2007, he had a 3.7 defensive WAR, a signature characteristic of a five tool outfielder.  Oh, and he also had a 17.2 WAR over that time, followed by a 5.3 in 2008.  Although injuries have derailed his performance the last two seasons, Sizemore was arguably the best outfielder of the mid 2000s.  His combination of power, speed, defense, and enthusiasm for the game were enough to call him probably one of the best players in baseball as well.

Meanwhile, Bartolo Colon's career with his new team lasted a full three months and 17 starts.  The highlight of his tenure with Montreal came on August 19, 2002, when he shut out the Padres at home allowing two hits and two walks on 95 pitches.  Besides that and Colon's 10 wins in that second half, not much came to the Expos in this deal.  Colon signed with the White Sox in the offseason and good season there in 2003, and the Expos were left with nothing.  Essentially, the Expos gave up three future All-Stars in exchange for half a season from a decent starter in a season where the Expos never came close to the playoffs.

While that trade looks bad because Colon was gone in half a season and the other three are having great careers, Vernon Wells will probably have a decent career for quite some time on the Angels.  The fact that Wells is a good player is not being disputed by many; this trade looks worse on paper.  Wells' salary will not make his production worth it, and the Angels gave up the two following players:

Mike Napoli hit 20 homers for the third straight season in 2010, keeping up his reputation as a great power hitter for a catcher.  Napoli has always been a minus defensively, but his bat makes him a valuable commodity to a contending team, especially since power out of the catcher spot is hard to find.  Immediately after being traded to Toronto, the Blue Jays turned around and swung him to Texas.  Napoli is a great player to have on a winning team, which the Rangers figure to be in 2011.

Juan Rivera has also always been a negative defensively, but an effective player nonetheless.  Rivera had his best season in 2009, hitting 25 homers and 88 RBI in 138 games.  He doesn't walk much and probably won't make a big overall impact on a lineup on his own, making his best role a fourth outfielder or third outfielder subject to frequent substitution.

To be sure, Vernon Wells has had a nice career.  He was a consistent cog in the Toronto outfield for almost the entire 2000s.  From 2002-2010, Wells averaged .279 with 25 homers, 89 RBI, 9 steals, and a total 28.0 offensive WAR over that time period.  Despite two subpar seasons in 2007 and 2009, it's hard to look at the stat sheet and not realize he was a great player for some time.  

Now here's where it gets really, really ugly.  Vernon Wells enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2010, swatting 31 homers and 88 RBI.  But even that isn't good enough to live up to his contract.  The 32 year old Wells hit 16 or less homers in both 2007 and 2009 (in full seasons), providing for a real head scratcher as to why the Blue Jays would reward a 'slugger' with those gaping holes in the stat sheet with 7 years, $126 million.  Although the deal was signed in December 2006, it didn't go into effect until 2010, the first year of the deal.  Wells made over $15 million in 2010, but it gets worse.  Wells' deal runs for four more seasons, so he'll be 35 at the end, over which time the Angels are due to pay him around  $86 million.  In 2011, he's due $23 million and will be due $21 million in 2012, 2013, and 2014.  The $23 million he will make next season was higher than any non-Yankee in baseball.  Miguel Cabrera was the only player not playing in New York to earn $20 million in 2010, giving you an idea of what Wells' salary will be compared to.  Remember, although Wells has had some good seasons like 2010, he had two very bad seasons for a player who is being paid to drive the ball and these two seasons were recent.  Look at his stats page, scroll down to the Standard Batting chart, and notice the two seasons I've highlighted in blue.

So he's getting paid.  Like seriously paid.  Big time dough.  All that cash for a guy who's being paid for the run production, but is well past his peak and proof of that comes in the form of those two awful seasons that were 2007 and 2009.  And all that cash for a guy who had his best season, like, eight years ago.  His career highs in games, at-bats, plate appearances, runs, hits, doubles, homers (only 33), RBI, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, total bases, and even times hit by pitch, all came in 2003.  In 2003, he had lineup protection in Carlos Delgado behind him and table setters in Frank Catalanotto and Shannon Stewart in front of him, all three of whom are now out of the Majors.  Heading to the Angels, his only table setters will likely be Howie Kendrick and/or Erick Aybar, and his only lineup protection will be Torii Hunter.  The setup was better on the Blue Jays, and although a change of scenery could help him, his ceiling is low because there's no chance he will do much better than his 2010 output, if he even gets to that mark.  His career high of 33 homers in 2003 is nowhere near the career highs of the sluggers he is being to hit like.

In conclusion, I think the Vernon Wells trade is the worst trade of recent baseball history, worse than the Bartolo Colon deal.  Angels GM Tony Reagins had taken a lot of criticism nationwide for his whiffs on Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Beltre.  This move was, without doubt, a desperation move to try to compensate for missing on those elite players.  But not only does Reagins have to give up two decent players in Napoli and Rivera, he is now stuck with what most baseball experts cite as 'baseball's most untradeable player' in Wells and his enormous contract.  In the Bartolo Colon trade of 2002, Colon was gone by that offseason and although this didn't give the Expos much value, it also didn't tie down their future, either.  Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips all went on to be great players, but it's unlikely the Expos would have been able to resign all three or even two once they became established stars.  And now the Angels will have limited financial flexibility for at least the next offseason due to this contract monstrosity.  So while Wells may be smiling ear to ear to be out of Toronto where he never made the playoffs, Reagins won't be in four years.                

The Projected Power Rankings 2011-2020: Top 50 Players

Matt Trueblood of Bleacher Report published a slideshow on Saturday of his projected top 50 players over the next decade.  I think this brings up not just a few, but many debates.  Such a topic is very hard to predict considering that we probably have never even heard of most of the next decades' stars.  For example, there's no way anyone knew the potential of Hanley Ramirez in 2000.  The following rankings are his, followed by my spin on the ranking.

Honorable Mention: Players 60-51

60. Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago Cubs: I'm glad Jackson made this list, but I think the Cubs' top pick in the 2009 MLB Draft deserves a higher spot.  Even Trueblood acknowledges that he has "plate discipline, speed, defense in either center or right field and the potential to hit 25-30 homers."  Seeing as Jackson will be only 22 in 2011, I think Jackson will have a great decade.

59. Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers: Verlander is an ace as of now, which means he won't be an ace in 2020.  However, he should put in a bunch of great seasons.

58. Mike Montgomery, SP, Kansas City Royals: Hasn't debuted in the Majors yet, which explains your head scratching.  Has looked great in the minors though, with a 2.27 ERA in 245.2 innings.

57. Ryan Kalish, OF, Boston Red Sox: Did debut in 2010, playing in 53 games.  He's developed power in the minors the last couple years, so he could be a 20-20 threat with the speed that he has.

56. Daniel Bard, RP, Boston Red Sox: He didn't leave much to complain about in his 2010 stat line, a 1.93 ERA in over 70 innings of relief.  One of the hardest throwers in baseball, it won't be long before he overtakes the overemotionally inconsistent Jonathan Papelbon.

55. Brian McCann, C, Atlanta Braves: Probably a 'half-decade' star for the late 2000s and early 2010s, much like Mike Piazza ten years before.  It's easy to forget he's still only 26, but let's see if his high workload takes a toll on him in his early 30s.

54. Zack Greinke, SP, Milwaukee Brewers: Many fans would put him higher, but he doesn't seem to be stable enough.  I agree with this ranking because he is already 27, was really bad to start his career, had depression issues early on, and still doesn't have a great attitude.

53. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: An appropriate ranking here, too.  Braun has flashed major power (37 homers in 2008) and not major power (25 in 2010).  He'll be a lock for 25 homers for a while, but I don't know that he'll be that great.

52. Michael Pineda, SP, Seattle Mariners: A big time prospect, Pineda should be in the Majors soon.

51. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies: Sort of a surprise to me.  Gonzalez just had a monster season and Trueblood writes this one off due to the Colorado effect among other things.  But Gonzalez's power goes to all fields, including center where Coors Field measures 425 feet.  And don't forget the infamous humidor for the baseballs.  I don't think the Colorado effect really makes a difference anymore.


The Main List (Top 50):

50. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers: Speed, defense, hitting for average, a fan base that loves you, why not?

49. Joakim Soria, CP, Kansas City Royals: Often overlooked, Soria should be a great closer for a long time.  He is just 27 but has 132 saves in four seasons.

48. Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore Orioles: If you're a believer in hype, then believe it.  I'm not sold on Matusz because he didn't have a standout year and hasn't proved he can be anything special in the Majors.  He won't deserve this rank if he repeats 10-12, 4.30 ERA seasons.

47. Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Colorado Rockies: Like I've always preached about Jimenez, he's a tick below the league's top pitchers and will be until he cuts down on the walks.  But his 15-win first half of 2010 was unbelievable, and his fastball velocity should zip him higher on this list.

46. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays: A speedy infielder, he should cut down on the strikeouts and work on contact before he can earn this rank.  A .285 average at AA isn't ideal for a speedy infielder.

45. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals: Smashing 20 homers in A and AA ball in 2010, the Royals' first round pick from 2008 should be in KC sometime this summer. 

44. Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees: Already 27 having only recorded one full season in the Majors, Gardner is in his prime right away.  You'll be seeing his scrawny 5'10" frame on ESPN for the next half-decade, until he loses his speed and therefore any value to anybody. 

43. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers: Already a star, I think Gallardo should be in the 30s at least.  Now without the pressure of being a forced ace at age 23 (in 2009) when he probably wasn't ready for it, I think he'll thrive in his #2 role.  His on-the-job ace training has been successful even though he still has areas to improve on, like walks.

42. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves: It sounds like a name computer-generated for a video game, but the name Freddie Freeman is one you'll hear about plenty.  This dude is a big power hitter who had his best season in 2010 and is simply an RBI machine.

41. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Oakland Athletics: Some baseball experts are picking the Oakland A's as a surprise pick in the AL West to upset the incumbent Texas Rangers, but here's the way I look at it: no Gio, no go.  Gonzalez had his first decent season in the Majors in 2010, posting 15 wins after two partial seasons where he showed potential but struggled.

40. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox: It seems like this guy was forgotten down the stretch of 2010 due to his injury and the fading Red Sox.  But people shouldn't yet forget about the 2008 AL MVP because, if nothing else, he's just a good hitter.  Pedroia will probably pick up where he left off.

39. Kyle Drabek, SP, Toronto Blue Jays: And the displeasure of having to deal with Pedroia will be something Drabek will face, a stud starter and the crown jewel in the Roy Halladay trade.  No problems with this rank.

38. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox: 'Gonzo' will be a half-decade star for sure because of the short right field line distance and Green Monster at Fenway, as Gonzo is a terrific opposite field power hitter. 

37. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle Mariners: I'm not sold on Ackley, a highly touted prospect in the MLB Draft last year who didn't hit well in the minors.  He should develop though, as he was rushed forwards by the Mariners in the minors and he deserves a higher spot on this list.

36. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: Fielder is one of the most underrated players in the game because besides his 50-homer season in 2007, the Brewers haven't contended at the same time as him having an elite season.  A change of scenery could put him on the map once again, seeing as he's a free agent after 2011.

35. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs: For more on this dude, read the post right below this one.  But without bias, he deserves a higher spot on the list.  Scouts have noticed Castro has the correct work ethic and although he hasn't put it all together yet, he has the raw talent to be like a slightly less speedier Jose Reyes-type player.  But because he was rushed to the Majors, he still needs to put it together himself soon.

34. Jesus Montero, C, New York Yankees: In this day and age, the traditional, three-outcome (homer, strikeout, or walk) kind of DH has fallen out of favor with baseball executives; players like Jim Thome and Frank Thomas are becoming more uncommon in favor of tandems of fielding players to get them 'a day off'.  All this means Jesus Montero is swimming against the current.  Trueblood notes Montero could hit 35 homers a season in the Majors, although his defense as a catcher isn't good enough to justify him fielding.  One of the few traditional DHs we will see in the 2010s.

33. Martin Perez, SP, Texas Rangers: Definitely not.  Although he looked to be a great up and coming pitcher in 2009 with a sub-3.00 ERA, he didn't look at all in 2010 as that number climbed over 5.00, including a 10.9 H/9 ratio.  Although he will be a good player in the next decade, let's not jump the gun here.  Also, he does play in the bandbox that is Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

32. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: Hellickson has a stat line to drool over in the minors, with a 2.71 ERA in six seasons of Minor League ball covering 580.1 innings.  In those innings, he has 634 strikeouts to just 137 walks.  His career 4.63 K/BB ratio is the new meaning of 'control freak'.  He got his first taste of the Majors with four starts last year.

31. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates: A multi-tooled star, this is probably the right spot for him because he has less power than some of the standout 20/20 talent-caliber five tool players of today.

30. Mat Latos, SP, San Diego Padres: Latos had a breakout season in 2010 at the age of 22, and there is no reason to think he shouldn't continue.  Playing in Petco Park is an advantage for him, but it also hurts his offense and this may result in him having lower win totals than some other top line starters.  Not to worry, Latos has the tools to make the 2010s great for the Padres.

29. Dominic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: A 20/20 talent in the Minors, 23 year old Brown didn't hit well in his playing time with Philadelphia in 2010.  Brown is overrated and will make some noise with Philly, but he's going to need to hit Major League pitching first.

28. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians: In the summer of 2008, the Dodgers traded Santana and prospects to the Indians for Casey Blake and other prospects.  While Blake has had just a disappointing 10.2 WAR in two and a half seasons in Los Angeles, Santana produced a 2.2 WAR in just 150 at-bats at the Major League level in 2010.  Santana is the next Victor Martinez-style power-hitting catcher who should become a star in Cleveland, proving the winner of that trade.

27. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals: Yes, another Kansas City Royal.  The stats speak for themselves, but they're so incredible I'll speak for them anyway.  36 home runs?  Who does that in the Minors?

26. C.C. Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees: Trueblood notes here that although Sabathia has already played a lot of baseball and is 30 years young, if anyone is capable of being the best in the next decade it's him.  This guy is a workhorse who has won at least 12 games in 10 straight seasons, never throwing less than 188 innings.  Sabathia has a better chance than anyone at winning 300 games, especially with his run production from the Yankees.

25. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins: With his salary, Mauer better be this good.  His surprising power vanished in 2010, but that wasn't what made him famous in the first place and he should have at least five more elite seasons.

24. Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants: Lincecum is no freak, but the hitters freak when they have to face him.  This should stay the same for most of the 2010s because any time you make the hitter uncomfortable in the box, you have an advantage right off the bat (no pun intended).

23. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: Many baseball experts and fans were buying big on Kershaw after his impressive first full season of 2009.  I was not one of them.  Once again, I am not a buyer on Kershaw because of his alarmingly high walk rate of 4.2 BB/9 IP in his career.  

22. Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves:  Teheran's highest level in 2010 was AA but he's sure to be moving up soon with his strikeout stuff.  Remember this name, definitely.

21. Jon Lester, SP, Boston Red Sox:  Already a star, Lester is one of the most effective starters in the game right now.  Trueblood is spot on with this ranking; just wait till he really gets paid.

20. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins: If you follow baseball, you know about Stanton.  The new stadium of the Marlins which opens in just over a year is slightly larger than Sun Life Stadium, but this will prove no issue for one of the best power hitters in the game for the next decade.

19. Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants: A World Series-clinching victory may have jumpstarted his career, and he's definitely proved he can deal with pressure.  The next step is to adjust to hitters adjusting on him, and he'll have no trouble avoiding a sophomore slump.

18. Josh Johnson, SP, Florida Marlins: Johnson looked like a Cy Young candidate for much of the 2010 season before fading at the end.  But he should be in contention again soon, especially with that new ballpark in Miami just mentioned with Stanton.  A certain star of the 2010s.

17. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals: A scout told Trueblood "he's so much better than David Wright at this level" which is not an opinion you hear everyday about New York's golden boy.  Remember Zimmerman's 30 game hit streak in 2009?  A prime example of what a fixture he is in the Washington lineup.  With an improved team this year, Zimmerman could be primed for his best year ever.

16. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: Upton had a quiet year in 2010, but this isn't the same kid called up to the Majors at 19 years young in 2007.  He's been around the block a few times and should be ready for an even better season this year.  This will be his 5th year in the Majors, at 23 years old.  So don't worry, because he has plenty of time to turn on the tools.

15. Tommy Hanson, SP, Atlanta Braves: With the Braves' history of pitching, Hanson is a welcome addition to a team looking to improve on a playoff team from 2010.  Him and Tim Hudson will make a great duo.  Definite future star.

14. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels: With a .428 OBP, he got on base a lot in 2010 in the Minors. But you won't often find him at first base.  Yeah, he just stole second, that fast.  His super speed (56 steals in A ball in 2010) will zoom into the Majors in about two years, and then watch out.

13. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: Votto got his first MVP award in 2010, but it probably won't be his last.  Watch for Votto and Albert Pujols to go at each other for the entire next decade, and Votto will succeed Pujols as the best hitter in the division at some point.

12. Aroldis Chapman, SP, Cincinnati Reds: His speedy debut came quickly for a Reds organization that pulled a surprise in signing him.  Believe the annoying hype; he's here to stay and for real.  The definite future ace of the Reds once those old guys step out in Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo.

11. Bryce Harper, C, Washington Nationals: The first pick in the 2010 MLB Draft by the Nationals, Harper should be a Buster Posey-type player.  The jury is out, because we haven't seen much of him.

10. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners: Imagine what Hernandez could do if not for that historically horrible Mariners offense.  Hernandez should have won around 20 games based on his pitching, and would have won 24 with a team like the Yankees.  However, baseball finally got something right and gave him the AL Cy Young.  If he could get off the Mariners, he would be widely regarded as the best pitcher in baseball at 25 in 2011.

9. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins: 2010 was supposed to be the season where Ramirez put it all together, but he put up yet another season that left people wondering how he hasn't yet unleashed his full potential except for a dynamite 2007 season.  As Trueblood points out, anytime you hit .300 and hit 21 homers, stealing 32 bases and still being told you're having a down year, you know you're good.

8. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays: Longoria's production will go down with the absence of Carl Crawford and run producing former teammate Carlos Pena, but Longoria will still hit for average and play good defense.  He may be a bit overrated here, though.

7. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves: 'J-Hey' is getting star treatment in Atlanta, but didn't finish the 2010 season very well.  Watch for Heyward to get better, but he'll need to put in the work first.

6. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants: Most rookies on championship teams contribute behind the core of established players.  At 23, Posey was arguably the most important piece to the World Champion Giants.  Expect big things out of the biggest Giant of them all.

5. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies: The Rockies gave 'Tulo' a big extension just because this is exactly what they think he'll become.  During a stretch with "video game" stats (14 homers, 31 RBI in 15 games) in early September, it became clear that Tulowitzki is capable of carrying the Rockies.  However, he had only 6 RBI after that and the Rockies missed the playoffs.  If he can carry his team into the playoffs, he will earn this rank.

4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers: His entire career, it seems Cabrera has been flying under the radar .  His monster seasons have come when his team wasn't contending, and therefore he hasn't received the publicity he deserves.  Cabrera already had 126 RBI in only 150 games in 2010, meaning he's at the top of his game right now to enter the new decade.

3. David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: Price gained a lot of popularity in the 2008 playoffs, and with good reason.  Price was one of the top candidates for AL Cy Young and will be the ace of Tampa Bay for a long time barring a trade.  Look for Price to finish the next decade in the top 10 in wins.

2. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals: Red flag.  I will never, ever again trust a young hardthrower with major surgery complications in just the first year of his Major League career.  So maybe he will come back and blow away the league, but be very, very careful about expecting this out of him.  Plus, the fact he showed signs of vulnerability in his rookie season.  There's a lot of pressure on him, so we'll have to see what he can do in the future.

1. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals: At 31, Pujols is one of the oldest guys on this list.  But he is absolutely the favorite to be the best player of the 2010s after being the best of the 2000s.  His consistency is incredible, and ten more equal seasons will give him the all time home run crown.  He has never been stopped consistently, so just watch him go.

Competitive Balance in Economics

There are 30 MLB teams.  By the rules and nature of baseball, all teams have an equal shot to win.  By the rules and nature of business, some teams are favored more than others.  In today's world, the industry that is professional sports is a business.  As unfortunate as it is, this means every team in MLB has different odds to win.  Since their is no salary cap in baseball, it's all about the revenue.  And a team's success or failure in generating revenue can and most likely will dictate their ability to win.  If you're a serious baseball fan, chances are you've heard of Billy Beane, GM of the Oakland Athletics.  The reason Beane is famous is because of his groundbreaking theories about baseball economics, revolutionary thoughts that have become relevant with the big contracts and free agency dogfights of modern baseball.  If Beane were the GM of the New York Yankees, he would not be characterized as the godfather of modern baseball economics.  Oakland is a tiny city compared to the other jumbo markets of baseball, making Beane's job much harder than a GM in a bigger city.

Small market teams have it tough.  Most small market teams put a strong emphasis on building from within their own system, putting a lot of work in the scouting and development department.  When these teams come up with big prospects they are unable to sign them to extensions and they are lost to the big market teams.  Even if they are able to sign the player to an extension, what happens if the team is losing?  The team has no choice but to rebuild, which means sending the prospect-turned-star to the big market teams.  There are a few ways for it to happen, but in the end, the star ends up with the big market teams more often than they should.

Prime examples of this can be found on the current big market teams.  Remember that super rotation the Phillies will put out on the mound in 2011?  Let's see where those guys came from.  Roy Oswalt was a huge star in Houston, nearly setting the franchise wins record before being traded.  Roy Halladay was a big star in Toronto, a well-publicized one at that.  Halladay took home the 2003 AL Cy Young Award, while Cliff Lee took home the same award in 2008 with Cleveland.  While Lee struggled with injuries during times in Cleveland, it was clear even before 2008 that he had the capability to be an elite pitcher.  Cole Hamels, the fourth man in this super rotation, is the only product of the Phillies system.

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, clearly in control of a big market team, snagged two of baseball's best players from small markets this offseason.  Acquiring Adrian Gonzalez out of San Diego and Carl Crawford from Tampa Bay, he has now dealt a huge blow to both franchises.  Without Gonzalez, the Padres are no longer a playoff contender and without Crawford, the Rays aren't either.  The word 'disappointment' can't even begin to describe how fans must feel this winter in San Diego and St. Petersburg, respectively.

Let's read down the current Yankee lineup.  At catcher we have Russell Martin, just acquired from the Dodgers.  At first base we have Mark Teixeira, big time power first baseman for the Rangers before being dealt to two pit stops in between.  Teixeira isn't the only name here with an enormous contract.  At second base and shortstop, we have Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter, respectively.  There are two genuine Yankees; good for them.  At third is, and I know its been a while, the most hyped prospect in the history of baseball- with the 1995 Seattle Mariners.  In right field we have Nick Swisher, who got his fame launching bombs out of the Oakland Coliseum.  In center, the five tooled Curtis Granderson came from Detroit.  In left is Brett Gardner, one final genuine Yankee.

The Yankees World Championship team of 2009 featured only two full season homegrown starters, while the top two (C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett) came from Cleveland and Toronto, respectively.  The Yankees, not surprisingly, have been to the World Series more than any other team and have won more than any other team.  From 2001-2010, a ten year stretch, 15 different teams made the World Series, with only the Yankees, Giants, Phillies, Red Sox, and Cardinals having been more than once.  Many baseball experts interpret this to mean that competitive balance in baseball is higher than it ever has been, but I don't think this is exactly the case.  Don't get me wrong- competitive balance is certainly high and we've seen a lot of small market success stories recently, but the problem is sustaining the team that got them there.

The surprising but lovable 2003 Marlins team that upset the Yankees to win the World Series was an example of how these teams can win, but can't be sustained in a market like Southeast Florida.  The 2003 heroes of ace Josh Beckett, center fielder Juan Pierre, second baseman Luis Castillo, starter Brad Penny, starter Carl Pavano, first baseman Derrek Lee, and third baseman Mike Lowell were all off the Marlins by 2006, signing with or being traded to the Red Sox, Cubs, Twins, Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, and Red Sox respectively.  Franchise faces from 2003 third baseman Miguel Cabrera and ace Dontrelle Willis would both be gone just a season later in a trade to Detroit.  In fact, Cabrera and Willis were the only players on the 2006 Opening Day roster remaining from the 2003 team.

The Marlins have become known for frequently executing a relatively modern tactic known as the firesale.  The firesale is an instant rebuilding strategy, seen in small markets who have an excellent young core of winning players with low salaries who have yet to cash in a big contract.  The small market team must commit to a firesale because, with lower revenue the market generates than big market teams like the Yankees, the team is not in a financial position to keep the players long term once they become free agents and demand large contracts.  If the players are traded before they hit free agency, then the team can rebuild using the prospect returns from those trades instead of getting nothing back.  The disassembling of the 2003 squad was the second most famous such firesale, the most famous being after the 1997 World Champion Marlins were disassembled to become an 108-loss team just the very next season, setting a record for the most losses in a season following a championship.

No team can execute a firesale better than the Florida Marlins, but this raises a question.  How many other teams would need to execute a firesale?  The answer is not many.  The 1997 Marlins won the World Series with the 5th highest payroll in the league, a very rare figure for them, and fell to 27th the very next year.  The Marlins started new players at all eight position player spots!  Meanwhile, the 1996 Yankees won the World Series with some of the key players being shortstop Derek Jeter, closer Mariano Rivera, and ace Andy Pettitte.  The Yankees next won the World Series in 1998, and by then power hitting catcher Jorge Posada had joined the key players.  In 2009, eleven years and around $488 million later, Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, and Posada all remained despite Pettitte's three year trip to Houston.  That's alarmingly close to the $581 million the Marlins have spent on players in the entire 18-year history of the franchise!  The Marlins clearly can't compete with that.

An overarching point here is that while many teams have made the World Series in recent years, the small to medium market teams aren't able to sustain the success.  Dynasties are not a thing that can be built by teams like the Marlins.  So it should be not surprise that the team that won six out of eight American League pennants from 1996-2003 was the New York Yankees.  Imagine if the Marlins had signed Moises Alou to a big contract extension after he helped them win the 1997 World Series, and the Marlins were able to take advantage of Alou's 225 career homers after 1997.  Who knows what the Marlins could have done with him as the center foundation for all of their young talent?  Unfortunately, we will never know.

The Florida (soon-to-be Miami) Marlins have hope.  In 2012, the gleaming new retractable roof stadium in Miami's Little Havana neighborhood will open, reinventing the entire franchise.  The new stadium will the kind of revenue the Marlins have never seen, and they will finally be able to sign at least one franchise player for a long time.  For other teams, like the other Florida team in the Tampa Bay Rays, such hope is not so easy to come by.  So for the other financially struggling small to medium market teams out there (the Pirates, Reds, Padres, Royals, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Blue Jays, Athletics), I have some advice.  Don't trust the system; you can't just lay back, play a bunch of rookies and expect a turnaround.  Especially for the Royals and Pirates, a big change is needed if the young players are all duds.  A reinvented scouting and development department is in order, and the team should not be satisfied with the prospects until they are making a difference at the major league level.  For some teams, like the A's, a lack of revenue is hurting the franchise's potential.  In this case, every effort must be done to make the team relevant in the community.  This means having unique promotions to get the fans in the current ballpark and get the fans excited about the team's future.  Also, an increased focus on community outreach from the players should be involved; the community needs to know this isn't an organization utilizing the city, it's an organization representing the city.  Eventually, enough attention should be focused so that the government will help fund a new stadium.

To all small market teams out there, good luck.  Because although winning out of a small market may not be a huge challenge, sustaining it sure as hell is.  And although the Marlins have made the playoffs only twice and have never won their division but won the World Series twice since 1993, I hold more respect towards those accomplishments than I do for the Yankees' 17 playoff appearances and five championships during the same time frame.  After reading all this, I hope you do too.