A Rough Start

Gold-numbered jerseys?  Check.  Gold-logo emblazoned hats?
Check.  Mandatory around-the-neck gold bling?  None (yet).

Inconsistent offense, shoddy bullpen work highlight first 10 games


It wasn't surprising that many assumed that the 2012 Cubs would struggle on the field.  It probably was surprising, however, that they got off to such an early start at that.  The first homestand, which saw the Cubs host the Nationals for three games and the Brewers for four, started 1-5 for the Cubs as they struggled to find a winning formula.

The Monday night game was not without its highlights, such as Bryan LaHair's monster home run onto Sheffield Avenue early on, but Chris Volstad's shaky start and Shawn Camp's atrocious relief appearance (three earned runs in one inning) spelled doom in a 7-5 loss.  It was a competitive ballgame, however, as Starlin Castro batted in the bottom of the ninth with the tying and winning runs on base.  A John Axford slider then ended all hopes of a comeback.

Tuesday night was a different story.  Paul Maholm, who has now been torched in both of his starts, had allowed six runs by the third inning.  Even the platoon catcher, Jonathan Lucroy, hit a home run. This game left little chance for the Cubs.

Yovani Gallardo and Ryan Dempster had a surprisingly intense pitcher's duel in the Wednesday game.  Gallardo allowed only a first-inning sacrifice fly to Castro, while Dempster held the 1-0 lead until a two-run homer by the other platoon catcher, George Kottaras, gave the Brewers the lead for good in the seventh.

And just like that, the Cubs had lost the first three games of a four-game series and started the season 1-5.  Pretty depressing stuff.  But this, my friends, is the wonder of rebuilding.  The team will be bad, but there are sure to be signs of life.  One such sign came Thursday as the Cubs shut out the Brewers 8-0, a real team effort as six different Cubs knocked in runs.  Matt Garza was even one pitch away from a shutout.  In fact, he got his pitch - an easily-fielded comebacker to the mound - and he promptly fired it into the stands instead of making the easy, 45-foot throw to first base.  Manager Dale Sveum yanked him unnecessarily, and Garza was robbed of the Cubs' first complete game of the season.

Bryan LaHair gets a round of high-fives after hitting the first
Cubs grand slam since October 2010.

The Cubs even broke out the bats for the second straight day in a row, and at a great time.  Those St. Louis Cardinals, decked out in gold-logo'd hats and gold-lettered jerseys just in case anybody forgot that they won the championship last season, were looking for an easy win over this weak Cubs team on their Opening Day.  They didn't get it.  First, rain rained on their parade.  Then, the Cubs rained on their parade.  After a lengthy rain delay of nearly two hours, any Cards fans that stayed looked foolish after a three-run homer by Ian Stewart and a grand slam by LaHair helped give the Cubs a 9-0 lead by the third inning.


Who gave up all these runs?  Why, it was Adam Wainwright.  That's the same Wainwright who, after nearly being the team's ace the last half-decade, missed the entire 2011 season due to injury.  This means he did nothing to contribute to their World Series run even though he is on the team.  So how ironic it was that he was the man to start the game in which they got their World Series rings, wore the glittery gear, and flaunted around pregame in celebratory fashion in front of the second-largest Busch Stadium II crowd ever.  But I digress.


Anyway, the point is that the Cubs did show the ability to score runs.  I like LaHair's power potential; he has two homers so far, one of which went opposite field and the other which left the stadium entirely.  I don't think strength will be an issue with this guy.

The Saturday and Sunday games were a mess.  Volstad imploded in the fourth inning of an otherwise sharp-looking start on Saturday, but the Cubs could never come back from the four allowed in the fourth.  The Cardinals did salvage one win in those odd-looking gold-numbered jerseys.  They had the wit to wear those things for a second game.  Who do they think they are, the New Orleans Saints?  While we're on the topic, is new manager Mike Matheny paying his pitchers to throw at opposing batters (in "kill the head" fashion)?  Probably not, but a concussion did end Matheny's playing career....  Also, in other weird-coincidence news, the Giants wore a similar gold-lettered jersey at their home opener last season as well to celebrate their 2010 World Series championship.  Which team did they host in their home opener?  The Cardinals.

Back to the Sunday game.  That second torching at the hands of Maholm took place on Sunday as Matt Carpenter, some kid who has made a lot of headlines so far, ended up five RBIs for the Cardinals.  The Cubs never really got to Cards starter Jake Westbrook, and the series ended with Friday being the lone Cubs win.  The series started off promisingly, but the end looked like the Cubs team we were expecting to see.

Through these first three series, the Cubs never really showed what their strengths are.  The last guy to make the rotation, Jeff Samardzija, is the only one with more than one win.  The offense scored 18 runs in the first six games then put up 17 runs in the next two.  Kerry Wood's bullpen failures from the first weekend were forgotten in place of a hodgepodge of dismal 'pen work from Camp, Lendy Castillo, and Carlos Marmol namely.  Not to mention Maholm's efforts, which have taken the Cubs out of games practically before they've started.  So far, not so good.  3-7 isn't the end of the world, however, and Sveum has the team playing hard.  The errors are down and the stolen bases are up.  The team certainly has a good swagger, too.

The Cubbies are down in Miami to check out the Marlins' new digs tomorrow night.  Ozzie Guillen will return from his five-game suspension to manage the game.  Just in case the game turns into a Marlins blowout, go online and count as many articles as you can find that mention both Guillen and Fidel Castro written within the last seven days.  Hopefully, though, we can just watch some winning baseball.        

2012 Cubs Preview: Starting Rotation

Ace Matt Garza

The name of the game is depth as revamped rotation is stockpiled with veterans, and determination of final two starters is a toss-up

The top of the rotation remains the same from 2011, as Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster will lead the group.  They appear to have switched places on the depth chart, however, as manager Dale Sveum says Garza will start on Opening Day in just his second year with the Cubs.  Dempster started Opening Day last year and enters his seventh season with the team. 

Sveum is correct in tabbing Garza as the team's ace.  His 10-10 record from last season doesn't show it, but he was definitely the best starter on this team as evidenced by his near 200-inning, 200-strikeout performance with a 3.32 ERA.  He received some of the worst run support on the entire league which explains his mediocre record. 

If Garza performs well in the ace role, it will only increase his trade value stock as the season goes on, which is exactly what the Cubs want.  He will be put in prime position to suceed on this season and, hopefully, flipped for high-level prospects at the trade deadline in July.  Garza, 28, is an emotional and vocal team leader in the prime of his career.  It shouldn't be a surprise if GM Jed Hoyer's phone bill balloons due to other GMs inquiring on his availability.  Oh right, most cell providers don't charge for incoming calls anymore.  So much for that, but you get my point.

Ryan Dempster

Then again, a great guy like Garza could be a valuable character to have around on this rebuilding team.  He is definitely the type of veteran around which a team is built.  In 2008, he took his young Rays team on his shoulders to the World Series, winning the ALCS MVP along the way.  When I chatted with Hoyer earlier this month, he told me that, ideally, he'd like to give Garza an extension if the time is right and he's not more valuable as trade bait, which remains to be seen.  I think both plans are viable options, although if he's traded I'll be sad to see him go.

Dempster, 34, is not the standout talent he once was.  After a shocking 200-inning, 200-strikeout season in 2010, he really came crashing back to Earth with a 4.80 ERA in 2011, again eating over 200 innings but also allowing over 200 hits and holding a 1.49 WHIP.  Dempster appeared to lose confidence in his soft changeup and cement-mixer slider.  Perhaps it would help if he didn't throw these pitches to break right down the middle of the plate.  Seriously, though, he struggled to keep these breaking pitches out of the dirt when he took them out of the strike zone and walked 82 batters on the season.

Paul Maholm

The #3 spot right now could be Paul Maholm's to lose.  Maholm has pitched in the Pittsburgh rotation his entire seven-year major league career, posting a respectable 4.36 ERA during that time amid a group that was anything but.  The 30-year-old is coming off the best season of his career with a 3.66 ERA in about 162 innings.  The southpaw is not a strikeout pitcher but he'll force plenty of groundballs with his frequently-used changeup.  Cubs fans have gotten a good look at Maholm since he has always been in the same division.  Alfonso Soriano has four career homers off him, which is more to any single batter besides Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips.  Maholm has only given up 13 career homers to lefty batters, however.

Two other pitchers who will surely get at least some starts this season are new arrivals, Chris Volstad and Travis Wood.  Volstad, who came from Florida in the Carlos Zambrano trade, is a very tall righty who still hasn't found success in the major leagues.  He uses all of his pitches low and inside on righties and lefties; hopefully he'll learn to use the entire plate with skill and confidence.  Hitters hit .310 off his fastball last year; that'll need to improve.  Perhaps he could switch it up with his changeup more often, as he threw his changeup only 5% of the time to righties.  If nothing else, Volstad, 25, adds young depth.

Travis Wood

Wood, also 25, probably has more potential.  In over 100 innings in 2010, he pitched to a 3.51 and but probably deserved even better, posting an impressive K/BB ratio with 86 strikeouts and only 26 walks.  In about the same amount of playing time in 2011, Wood regressed with a 4.84 ERA and a WHIP that ballooned from 1.08 the year before to 1.49.  This lefty should bring more of the strikeout stuff to the majors soon judging from his 8.4 K/9 career ratio in the minors.  He throws his fastball too much (76% of the time last year) but apparently he commands it well, meaning he's very advanced in his development process.  I would take Wood over Volstad any day.

The last legit option, in my opinion, is righty Randy Wells, 29.  Since his impressive rookie debut in 2009, Wells has scuffled through two disappointing seasons.  This is probably his last chance to prove himself.  With the wide range of candidates this year, a 4.99 ERA won't cut it this time.  Something in his mechanics has been lost along the way, as his career 6.0 K/9 ratio is a far cry from the high strikeout totals he used to rack up in the minor leagues.  So far his fastball has been too hittable.

Randy Wells

Casey Coleman, 24, had a strong debut in 2010 as he showed how he can win with minimal strikeouts but a lot of groundballs.  In 2011 he was really, really bad with a 6.40 ERA although his strikeouts were up.  If he wants to win, he'll have to do it the way he did in 2010, using Nationals starter Jordan Zimmermann as a model.  Coleman is definitely a longshot.

Speaking of longshots, there's another one in 27-year-old Jeff Samardzija.  He isn't a longshot because he's not up to the task; rather, he's such a dominant setup man that he's probably better served in the bullpen.  After an unbelievable rookie season in 2008, he was looking like a bust after horrible seasons in 2009 and 2010 switching between the rotation and bullpen.  I was sick of him and wanted him gone.  Instead, he came back in 2011 firmly staying in the bullpen and became one of the strongest setup men in the league, forming the best setup duo in baseball between him and Sean Marshall.  The Cubs will stretch him out in Spring Training to see what he's got as a starter just in case, but it's highly unlikely that he'll move.

The starting rotation in 2011 was the worst in baseball in terms of ERA.  This was definitely because of early injuries to #4 and #5 starters Wells and Andrew Cashner in the first week of the season, which exposed the team's lack of depth and sent then-GM Jim Hendry scrambling to fill a rotation.  Soon enough, Coleman, Doug Davis, Ramon Ortiz, and Rodrigo Lopez were getting far more time than they had earned in the major leagues.  The injuries blew up in the team's face, and it hampered the team's efforts to put together any kind of win streak.  This season, with new additions in Wood, Volstad, Maholm, Andy Sonnanstine, and Ryan Rowland-Smith, there will always be major league worthy arms available.

 

2012 Cubs Rotation: The Odds Game

Keep an eye on make-or-break rotation candidate Randy Wells.

As we head into February of this new year, the Cubs, like most teams, still have much to be decided in their starting rotation.  Thanks to the front office's dealings, there are a host of candidates for a rotation spot.  But which candidates are locks, which are maybes and which are long shots?  Staring at a list of candidates doesn't provide the reader with much information besides their own personal speculation.  I don't have any extra info to release or anything, but I do have a method to make the speculation more fun.  Here I place odds on each starter and his chances (in my opinion) of making the rotation.  The total adds up to 500%, each 100% representing one starter.

Matt Garza: 99% (LOCK)
Barring any trade or a steroid bust or whatever ridiculous idea you can come up with, Garza will be in the rotation from the beginning.  He should start Opening Day, but I have a feeling Dale Sveum will give the ball to his trusty veteran Ryan Dempster.  Still, though, Garza is the ace of the team.

Ryan Dempster: 99% (LOCK)
The Cubs picked up his $14 million option for 2012 even when, according to the new CBA, I don't think they would've lost a draft pick if he had left.  Dempster begins his fifth season in the rotation as a major bounceback candidate after losing his slider last year.  He's a good guy to have around, so he'll be worth it in probably his last year in Cubs blue.

Paul Maholm: 99% (LOCK)
Maholm has started every game of his big league career and won't stop now.  He'll be a solid rotation member, and his groundball strategy makes him a good fit for Wrigley.  No suspense here.

Travis Wood: 70%
Wood has proven himself to some extent in the big leagues with much room to improve.  He'll be the youngest member of this revamped rotation unless Trey McNutt makes some miraculous surge to the rotation.


Chris Volstad: 40%
I'll say the newcomer Volstad gets a fair chance in his first year with the Cubs.  He may not last the whole season considering his skill level, but a decent asset to have.  If not for Chicago, I think he'll be starting games in Iowa.

Randy Wells: 40%
It's been hard to read how the new management will deal with the Wells situation.  Wells is hard-working and a good teammate coming off two mediocre seasons which followed a breakout rookie campaign.  I'm a fan of Wells, but this season could be his last chance in the rotation.

Andy Sonnanstine: 20%
I'm sure Sonnanstine will do just fine with the coaching staff and such, but his signing does nothing to change the fact that he simply isn't a great pitcher at a 5.26 career ERA, and his repertoire doesn't leave much room for improvement at age 29.  He could be a nice flex/spot starter option out of the bullpen, but it'll take an overhaul for him to start all season.

Rodrigo Lopez: 20%
I was against the resigning of Lopez because he doesn't provide the ballclub much of anything besides his on-field display which wasn't very impressive.  I worry that the new regime will take Lopez as a veteran sign of stability.  The right move, however, is to leave him in Iowa.

Casey Coleman: 8%
After a solid trial period in 2010, Coleman got 17 starts last year in an injury-fill in role.  It, umm, didn't go so well.  He finished with a 6.40 ERA, giving up almost 11 hits per nine innings.  Back to Iowa, young one.

Trey McNutt: 5%
The wildest of wild cards!  McNutt is the organization's top pitching prospect despite taking a few steps back last year.  He hasn't even proved himself at Double-A ball yet, but apparently he'll head to big league camp.  Sending him to the majors this early would be a complete train wreck.  Don't even try it.

Cubs Trade Carlos Zambrano; Acquire Chris Volstad

Carlos Zambrano

Earlier this week GM Jed Hoyer finally rid the Cubs organization of Carlos Zambrano in a one-for-one swap with San Diego.  Theo Epstein said a while ago that Zambrano would be given a fair chance to earn his job back in Spring Training, but now he won't get that chance.  Epstein probably didn't think that Hoyer and himself would be able to trade him.  But they did, and the Cubs will receive 25-year-old right-handed starter Chris Volstad in return.  The Cubs will pay $15 of Zambrano's $18 million due in 2012.

Although this move, while wildly uneconomical, was probably the right move for the Cubs, part of me is saddened that the famous antics of the Big Z will no longer grab headlines in Chicago.  Part of the whole deal seemed fitting for the Cubs.  Zambrano playing in Chicago seemed to bring up a punch line.  Failed expectations, dysfunctional play, 100 years without a championship, and now the 'ace' takes swings at the Gatorade cooler -- every year?  It was that teeth-clenching type of frustration at times, but it was relentless entertainment.  Right when you thought he had cleaned up his act, there he was again abusing that poor, innocent energy drink dispenser or barking at Derrek Lee.

Recently it's been easy to forget that he was once a relied-upon ace.  2011 was actually his first season with an ERA over 4.00.  Back in the day, though, he was one of baseball's up-and-coming star pitchers.  At age 22 he broke onto the scene for good with the 2003 dream team Cubs.  He pitched over 200 innings and would again each year until 2007 and won 13 games, a total he would surpass each year until 2008.  He hasn't done either since, instead finding himself in the doghouse, the bullpen, and the disqualified list (a list I didn't know existed in baseball until he made it on) at various times over the past three seasons.  He simply needs a change of scenery.  Finally he gets one.

Chris Volstad

Instead of getting some random single-A prospects with no chance of making it to the bigs, the Cubs get a legit starter with over 100 major league starts under his belt.  His ERA over the past three seasons, each full seasons as a starter, is 4.88.  Not necessarily impressive; that's actually worse than league average.  However, he is still young and has room to improve.  After three seasons in Florida his development appears to have slowed; a change of scenery could end up being very good for him as well.

Standing tall at an intimidating 6'8", Volstad attempts to pound batters inside but it's much more effective on righties.  Lefty batters have been an issue for Volstad since the beginning.  Righties are also a major problem for him when he gets behind in the count.  When behind in the count, Volstad goes to his fastball 74% of the time.  Batters are hitting .310 off it.    His changeup, off which hitters are hitting only .221, is his best pitch but he only throws one 15% of the time.  His put-away pitch as of right now is a decent curveball but I hope new pitching coach Chris Bosio helps him mix in the changeup more.  That would also make the fastball more effective.

I'm excited to see what Volstad will do.  There's much more room for improvement with him than Zambrano at this point.  It's been a fun decade with the Z, but this was the right opportunity.  In Volstad I'm very pleased with the return.  Don't stop now, Jed and Theo.