The 2011 All-Division Team, Part 2: NL East

Jose Reyes won the 2011 NL batting title.

Part 2 of 6: National League East


C Brian McCann, ATL (2nd)
Most importantly, McCann avoided becoming a hostage in Venezuela like one of his competition at this spot, Nationals catcher Wilson Ramos.  McCann has been the most consistent catcher over the past half-decade, earning his sixth straight All-Star selection.  His annual production of 20 homers and 70+ RBIs is welcome on a disjointed and aging Atlanta offense that has literally no speed outside of Michael Bourn only one other major power threat, the recent addition of Dan Uggla.  Truth is, the Braves would be lost without McCann, but not even he could carry his tired team into the playoffs as the Braves blew their big wild card lead.  Competition: Josh Thole (NYM), Carlos Ruiz (PHI), Wilson Ramos (WAS), John Buck (FLA).

1B Mike Morse, WAS
Where did this guy come from?  Morse was ironically exactly what the Nationals expected out of Jayson Werth, who was hampered by injury and had a down season.  The 29-year-old Morse got his first full season in 2011, but few expected such a breakout.  Morse had never even hit 20 homers in a minor league season, and he comes out with 31 for Washington.  He also became a team leader along the way.  Competition: Ryan Howard (PHI), Gaby Sanchez (FLA), Freddie Freeman (ATL), and Daniel Murphy (NYM).

2B Dan Uggla, ATL (2nd, first with Braves)
In a season highlighted by a 34-game hitting streak, Uggla batted only .233.  That is probably the last time we will see such a low average from a 30-game hit streak player.  But as stated in the McCann argument, the Braves offense would be near incompetent without Uggla.  The Braves don't really have any other dynamic power hitters, as other pieces like Martin Prado, Chipper Jones, Freddie Freeman and Alex Gonzalez really only have power as an extra bonus to their hitting-for-average skills.  It took Uggla a long time to get going in 2011, but the power was there and kept them afloat in the NL East.

3B Chipper Jones, ATL
In another position smashed by injury, David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman both missed significant time.  Jones, in his age 39 season, is a shadow of the player he once was, which is quite depressing to be honest.  Jones has his job for as long as he wants it out of respect from the Braves, but his offensive skills are limited.  Just 18 homers and 70 RBIs came off his bat in 2011, but he's obviously still a team leader and loved by his fans.  Competition: David Wright (NYM), Ryan Zimmerman (WAS), Greg Dobbs (FLA), Placido Polanco (PHI).

SS Jose Reyes, NYM
Unfortunately, Reyes' season ended in controversy when he got a bunt single in the last game of the season and took himself out of the lineup in the last game of the season to ensure the greatest chance at a batting title. Ryan Braun failed to do the impossible, and Reyes won the first batting title in Mets history.  A return to the Mets looks far fetched, so Reyes is sure to cash in big soon.  Most impressive?  In 586 plate appearances, he walked 43 times and struck out 41 times, an 86% contact rate!  Competition: Ian Desmond (WAS), Hanley Ramirez (FLA), Jimmy Rollins (PHI), and Alex Gonzalez (ATL).

LF Logan Morrison, FLA
Lo-Mo finally was disciplined for his Twitter tendencies in 2011, and his relationship with the front office is unclear.  Morrison was sent to the minors temporarily for bad off-field conduct (specifically, Twitterness) and promptly filed a grievance with the players association.  Trade rumors involving the budding star heated up, but he was a runway model for the Marlins' new uniforms presentation at the new ballpark, confirming his status as an integral part of the team core.  The ever-changing Marlins roster doesn't have much of an established core outside of Hanley Ramirez, but I still believe Lo-Mo will definitely be a Miami Marlin next season.  Competition: Jason Bay (NYM), Raul Ibanez (PHI), Martin Prado (ATL), and Laynce Nix (WAS).

CF Angel Pagan, NYM (2nd)
He doesn't bat as well or walk as much as the ideal leadoff man, but Pagan does a fine job in center field for the Mets.  After being superb defensively in 2010, Pagan really struggled in 2011 at times.  However, 32 steals got the job done in his role behind Reyes.  He serves as a fine table setter at a relatively cheap price.  He's never going to be an All-Star but he fits this team fine.  And finally, his speed role will be magnified with the departure of Reyes next season.  Competition: Shane Victorino (PHI), Chris Coghlan (FLA), Nate McLouth (ATL), and Rick Ankiel (WAS).

RF Mike Stanton, FLA (2nd)
Stanton's home runs soar higher than the voices of the Marlins TV announcers (which is hard to do) with great regularity.  The 21-year-old has all the looks of a major power hitter for years to come.  The Marlins are currently being aggressive in the free agent market for the first time in their history, but if they plan to win, they'll need Stanton, who is already an elite outfielder.  And fantasy draftee.  Competition: Jason Heyward (ATL), Hunter Pence (PHI), Carlos Beltran (NYM), and Jayson Werth (WAS).

SP Roy Halladay, PHI
Dealing with a loss of confidence at the plate?  This Doc won't help with that.  Roy Halladay was the best of three Phillies starters with ERAs below 3.00 and decreased his homer total from 24 to 10.  He threw eight complete games and one shutout with the lowest ERA of his career at 2.35.  Even with ridiculous stamina and decent run support, Halladay failed to win 20 games which could even be seen as a surprise.  However, starting pitcher wins are overrated.  Bottom line: Halladay's a beast for the time being.  Competition: Anibal Sanchez (FLA), R.A. Dickey (NYM), Tim Hudson (ATL), and John Lannan (WAS).

CP Craig Kimbrel, ATL
127 strikeouts.  In 77 innings.  In his first full season as closer, Kimbrel was the best at the position in MLB.  As I've said in earlier posts, Kimbrel didn't allow a run for a stretch of about two and a half months in the middle of summer and only allowed three homers all year.  The Braves have the best bullpen in MLB and actually have three options at closer in Eric O'Flaherty, Jonny Venters, and Kimbrel.  The chances are that any of the three of them would have been the best in the league no matter who was chosen as closer.  For 2011, though, Kimbrel was the best in the business in talent.  Somehow, however, he blew eight saves along the way and the biggest one of the season, the one that would've gotten them to a Wild Card tiebreaker.  Three blown saves in September helped the Braves collapse hard.  Competition: Francisco Rodriguez (NYM), Ryan Madson (PHI), Juan Oviedo (FLA), and Drew Storen (WAS).

Homestand Analysis: Florida, Philadelphia, Houston

Record: 5-5
Final Record: 42-60

Fresh off a trip to the All-Star Game, Starlin Castro returned to Chicago to rejoin his team for a four-game set against the Florida Marlins, who were making their last trip to Chicago under that name before they become the Miami Marlins next year.  The Marlins went out with a bang too, taking three of four games and outscoring the Cubs 27-13.

Two of the three losses should have been wins for the Cubs, and only one of those two was actually the Cubs' fault.  A typical Carlos Marmol ninth inning implosion blew the lead and the game in both teams' first game after the break on Thursday night.  After a win on Friday and a blowout loss Saturday, the Cubs were robbed of at least extra innings by second base umpire Lance Barrett, who blew the call on a pickoff play that would have gotten Kerry Wood out of a serious jam in the 8th.  Wood and the Cubs were livid, but there is no instant replay on those calls and they just had to deal with it.  Wood went on to walk in the go-ahead run and the Cubs would never get the lead back.

While losing three of four to Florida might have seemed bad, the Cubs had an even taller task ahead of them when the Phillies came to town on Monday.  But for the second year in a row, the Cubs beat Phillies ace Roy Halladay and opened off the series with a surprising win.  Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena added home runs in the game.

While Ramirez and Pena and known sluggers, it would still be a surprise to see one of them homer of Phillies southpaw Cliff Lee, widely regarded as one of the best pitchers in baseball known for his impeccable control.  But it was a kid with five career homers heading into the game who would homer off the veteran Lee on this night.  Castro's two-run first inning blast gave the Cubs a lead that would hold up until the 8th, when Sean Marshall blew it on a double by Chase Utley.  As I've mentioned in previous posts, Mike Quade has taken a lot of blame for leaving in pitchers too long.  Perhaps preparing for potential extra innings, Quade left in the demoralized Marshall to pitch the 9th, and a two-run double by Michael Martinez gave the Phillies a lead they wouldn't give back.  The mistake by Quade was inexcusable, and I was highly disappointed that this problem still plagues Quade.

After the Phillies finished their series win with a blowout in nothing-to-see-here fashion, the stumbling Houston Astros came to Wrigley Field.  The Astros had gone 9-3 in their last 12 games at Wrigley Field before this series, but that was certainly bound to change.  This year's version of the Astros is unprecedentedly bad and on pace for around 110 losses, which would be a franchise worst.  In fact, the Astros have never lost 100 games in the franchise's 50 year history, but that will change at this rate.  And a sweep from a fifth-place Cubs team definitely won't help them avoid it.

The Cubs took the Friday matinee by power, as Alfonso Soriano and Ramirez had key homers to take it 4-2.  Randy Wells, pitching for his life in the rotation, came through with just one run allowed Saturday and was allowed to stay in the rotation.  Marlon Byrd and Geovany Soto joined the homer party in support.  Speaking of homer party, Carlos Lee gave the Astros the lead 4-3 on Sunday with a shocking two-run homer in the 8th.  Lee, a notorious Cub killer, has 36 career homers against the Cubs, which is 17 more than he has against any other opponent!  But my immediate reaction to Lee's homer on Sunday was, 'Isn't this guy too old for this now?!'  Lee's homer, just his eighth of the season, was quickly forgotten by Cubs fans, however, as a Soriano single tied the game just a half-inning later.  In the 10th, Jeff Baker singled to left to win the game and begin the walk-off celebration.

And just like that, the Cubs took their first three-game sweep of the season.  Oh, and that was also their first three-game winning streak in nearly four months of baseball.  See, it wasn't that hard guys.  Does it really count against a team like the Astros?  For our purposes, yes.

For how ugly the homestand started, you have to give the team credit for rebounding and sweeping the Astros.  But the Cubs should have taken three of four from the Marlins and two of three from the Phillies, counting the game that Marshall and Quade unintentionally colluded to blow.  Counting the sweep of the Astros, that would've been an 8-2 homestand.  But the past is the past, and as the all-mighty Da Coach says, the past is for cowards.  Point being the Cubs have to take the positives and work forwards to have any chance of a late-season rebound like last year's.  

Competitive Balance in Economics

There are 30 MLB teams.  By the rules and nature of baseball, all teams have an equal shot to win.  By the rules and nature of business, some teams are favored more than others.  In today's world, the industry that is professional sports is a business.  As unfortunate as it is, this means every team in MLB has different odds to win.  Since their is no salary cap in baseball, it's all about the revenue.  And a team's success or failure in generating revenue can and most likely will dictate their ability to win.  If you're a serious baseball fan, chances are you've heard of Billy Beane, GM of the Oakland Athletics.  The reason Beane is famous is because of his groundbreaking theories about baseball economics, revolutionary thoughts that have become relevant with the big contracts and free agency dogfights of modern baseball.  If Beane were the GM of the New York Yankees, he would not be characterized as the godfather of modern baseball economics.  Oakland is a tiny city compared to the other jumbo markets of baseball, making Beane's job much harder than a GM in a bigger city.

Small market teams have it tough.  Most small market teams put a strong emphasis on building from within their own system, putting a lot of work in the scouting and development department.  When these teams come up with big prospects they are unable to sign them to extensions and they are lost to the big market teams.  Even if they are able to sign the player to an extension, what happens if the team is losing?  The team has no choice but to rebuild, which means sending the prospect-turned-star to the big market teams.  There are a few ways for it to happen, but in the end, the star ends up with the big market teams more often than they should.

Prime examples of this can be found on the current big market teams.  Remember that super rotation the Phillies will put out on the mound in 2011?  Let's see where those guys came from.  Roy Oswalt was a huge star in Houston, nearly setting the franchise wins record before being traded.  Roy Halladay was a big star in Toronto, a well-publicized one at that.  Halladay took home the 2003 AL Cy Young Award, while Cliff Lee took home the same award in 2008 with Cleveland.  While Lee struggled with injuries during times in Cleveland, it was clear even before 2008 that he had the capability to be an elite pitcher.  Cole Hamels, the fourth man in this super rotation, is the only product of the Phillies system.

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, clearly in control of a big market team, snagged two of baseball's best players from small markets this offseason.  Acquiring Adrian Gonzalez out of San Diego and Carl Crawford from Tampa Bay, he has now dealt a huge blow to both franchises.  Without Gonzalez, the Padres are no longer a playoff contender and without Crawford, the Rays aren't either.  The word 'disappointment' can't even begin to describe how fans must feel this winter in San Diego and St. Petersburg, respectively.

Let's read down the current Yankee lineup.  At catcher we have Russell Martin, just acquired from the Dodgers.  At first base we have Mark Teixeira, big time power first baseman for the Rangers before being dealt to two pit stops in between.  Teixeira isn't the only name here with an enormous contract.  At second base and shortstop, we have Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter, respectively.  There are two genuine Yankees; good for them.  At third is, and I know its been a while, the most hyped prospect in the history of baseball- with the 1995 Seattle Mariners.  In right field we have Nick Swisher, who got his fame launching bombs out of the Oakland Coliseum.  In center, the five tooled Curtis Granderson came from Detroit.  In left is Brett Gardner, one final genuine Yankee.

The Yankees World Championship team of 2009 featured only two full season homegrown starters, while the top two (C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett) came from Cleveland and Toronto, respectively.  The Yankees, not surprisingly, have been to the World Series more than any other team and have won more than any other team.  From 2001-2010, a ten year stretch, 15 different teams made the World Series, with only the Yankees, Giants, Phillies, Red Sox, and Cardinals having been more than once.  Many baseball experts interpret this to mean that competitive balance in baseball is higher than it ever has been, but I don't think this is exactly the case.  Don't get me wrong- competitive balance is certainly high and we've seen a lot of small market success stories recently, but the problem is sustaining the team that got them there.

The surprising but lovable 2003 Marlins team that upset the Yankees to win the World Series was an example of how these teams can win, but can't be sustained in a market like Southeast Florida.  The 2003 heroes of ace Josh Beckett, center fielder Juan Pierre, second baseman Luis Castillo, starter Brad Penny, starter Carl Pavano, first baseman Derrek Lee, and third baseman Mike Lowell were all off the Marlins by 2006, signing with or being traded to the Red Sox, Cubs, Twins, Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, and Red Sox respectively.  Franchise faces from 2003 third baseman Miguel Cabrera and ace Dontrelle Willis would both be gone just a season later in a trade to Detroit.  In fact, Cabrera and Willis were the only players on the 2006 Opening Day roster remaining from the 2003 team.

The Marlins have become known for frequently executing a relatively modern tactic known as the firesale.  The firesale is an instant rebuilding strategy, seen in small markets who have an excellent young core of winning players with low salaries who have yet to cash in a big contract.  The small market team must commit to a firesale because, with lower revenue the market generates than big market teams like the Yankees, the team is not in a financial position to keep the players long term once they become free agents and demand large contracts.  If the players are traded before they hit free agency, then the team can rebuild using the prospect returns from those trades instead of getting nothing back.  The disassembling of the 2003 squad was the second most famous such firesale, the most famous being after the 1997 World Champion Marlins were disassembled to become an 108-loss team just the very next season, setting a record for the most losses in a season following a championship.

No team can execute a firesale better than the Florida Marlins, but this raises a question.  How many other teams would need to execute a firesale?  The answer is not many.  The 1997 Marlins won the World Series with the 5th highest payroll in the league, a very rare figure for them, and fell to 27th the very next year.  The Marlins started new players at all eight position player spots!  Meanwhile, the 1996 Yankees won the World Series with some of the key players being shortstop Derek Jeter, closer Mariano Rivera, and ace Andy Pettitte.  The Yankees next won the World Series in 1998, and by then power hitting catcher Jorge Posada had joined the key players.  In 2009, eleven years and around $488 million later, Jeter, Rivera, Pettitte, and Posada all remained despite Pettitte's three year trip to Houston.  That's alarmingly close to the $581 million the Marlins have spent on players in the entire 18-year history of the franchise!  The Marlins clearly can't compete with that.

An overarching point here is that while many teams have made the World Series in recent years, the small to medium market teams aren't able to sustain the success.  Dynasties are not a thing that can be built by teams like the Marlins.  So it should be not surprise that the team that won six out of eight American League pennants from 1996-2003 was the New York Yankees.  Imagine if the Marlins had signed Moises Alou to a big contract extension after he helped them win the 1997 World Series, and the Marlins were able to take advantage of Alou's 225 career homers after 1997.  Who knows what the Marlins could have done with him as the center foundation for all of their young talent?  Unfortunately, we will never know.

The Florida (soon-to-be Miami) Marlins have hope.  In 2012, the gleaming new retractable roof stadium in Miami's Little Havana neighborhood will open, reinventing the entire franchise.  The new stadium will the kind of revenue the Marlins have never seen, and they will finally be able to sign at least one franchise player for a long time.  For other teams, like the other Florida team in the Tampa Bay Rays, such hope is not so easy to come by.  So for the other financially struggling small to medium market teams out there (the Pirates, Reds, Padres, Royals, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Blue Jays, Athletics), I have some advice.  Don't trust the system; you can't just lay back, play a bunch of rookies and expect a turnaround.  Especially for the Royals and Pirates, a big change is needed if the young players are all duds.  A reinvented scouting and development department is in order, and the team should not be satisfied with the prospects until they are making a difference at the major league level.  For some teams, like the A's, a lack of revenue is hurting the franchise's potential.  In this case, every effort must be done to make the team relevant in the community.  This means having unique promotions to get the fans in the current ballpark and get the fans excited about the team's future.  Also, an increased focus on community outreach from the players should be involved; the community needs to know this isn't an organization utilizing the city, it's an organization representing the city.  Eventually, enough attention should be focused so that the government will help fund a new stadium.

To all small market teams out there, good luck.  Because although winning out of a small market may not be a huge challenge, sustaining it sure as hell is.  And although the Marlins have made the playoffs only twice and have never won their division but won the World Series twice since 1993, I hold more respect towards those accomplishments than I do for the Yankees' 17 playoff appearances and five championships during the same time frame.  After reading all this, I hope you do too.          

Pitching and Defense Reign

First, congratulations to the 2010 San Francisco Giants on winning their first World Series since moving from New York in the 1950s.  Second, how?  I'm not a believer in the phrase 'pitching and defense win championships.'  I guess it worked for the Giants, though, who shut down the Rangers offense in this Series probably making that more important than anything either team did offensively.  Once in Texas, the Giants allowed only five runs in the three games, and the Giants won two of three of those.  The Giants also won the last two games, allowing only one run and scoring seven.  After being shut out only once in the regular season at home (to Dallas Braden of the Oakland A's) in 81 games, Madison Bumgarner shut out the Giants for eight innings before giving way to the bullpen.  The very next night was between Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee and a pitching duel that ensued was supposed to happen in Game 1, but didn't.  Lincecum beat Lee for the second time thanks the Series MVP Edgar Renteria's three-run homer in the 7th inning which put the Rangers away.  The Rangers got one run back, but the bullpen contained the Texas offense that was so key against the Yankees.  Brian Wilson, the closer, came on and struck out Nelson Cruz on a high fastball to end it, doing his trademark cross hand finger pointing before celebrating on the mound with his mobbing teammates.

Main thought about this series and the Giants run: it came out of nowhere.  I didn't feel like the Giants were a serious contender to win it all in the beginning of the postseason, but they did win it with pitching.  This feeling can be compared to the 2006 Cardinals, a team that was awful late in the season and still squeezed into the playoffs.  Somehow, they beat San Diego, New York, and Detroit that fast and won the World Series, although they probably deserved it less than anyone else in the playoffs.  I didn't expect them to win but once they did they were off and running and the sports media swirled and swirled around them, much like the Giants.  They just kept winning and testing everyone's judgment to see how long this thing would keep going.  The Giants beat the Braves in what wasn't an upset, but a series with a lot of historical significance due to Bobby Cox retiring and such.  The Giants certainly upset the Phillies in six games and that was just incredible.  Sports analysts didn't give anyone else in the National League a chance because of the 'Big Three' of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt.  However, this Giants team proved that a team doesn't need big names to pitch well; what they did using Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner was just incredible.  And to that I salute them.  Something else the Giants did really well is come through late in the game in clutch at-bats.  San Francisco scored 12 in the 8th inning combined through the Series, tying the Rangers total output through all innings.  The Giants put up runs in the 7th and/or 8th in every game.  And while the Giants certainly have no stars on offense like the Rangers do in Josh Hamilton and more, it's just a great bunch of guys put together who have talent and give the team great at-bats and do their best to put something together.  It is an all-team production, also known as teamwork.  Plenty of teams in baseball should be taking notes on this, as the wisdom is clearly abundant.

Postseason Preview: World Series

After a one year absence, baseball fans will get their Cinderella team in the World Series again.  Actually, two.  Both the Giants and Rangers weren't given big consideration for the World Series heading into the playoffs, especially considering both were serious underdogs playing for the pennant against the Phillies and Yankees, respectively.  But for the media, the unthinkable has happened.  The 'Big Three' of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels has been beaten in a series nobody foresaw.  The invincible Yankees with their high priced bats and arms fell as the bats were silenced and the arms didn't silence anyone on the Rangers.

On to this World Series.  It will begin in San Francisco on Wednesday night, playing there again the next night before heading off to Texas for three games.  Unfortunately, the schedule just works out so that the Giants barely miss a home game on a Friday, which would have had them wear the orange uniforms in the World Series.  No team has worn an alternate uniform in the World Series since the 2007 Rockies, most teams elect not to for whatever reason.  The first game was a great pitching matchup of Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee, probably not much of a better matchup could be asked for.  The two combined have gone 47.1 innings allowing just seven runs and striking out 64 with six walks.  The key for Cliff Lee is to control the tempo of the game like he usually does and to cool down Cody Ross.  He barely walks anyone so he needs to stick to his gameplan with men on base to avoid a flurry of hits resulting in a momentum shift.  Such momentum shifts, especially in the World Series, often decide the game.  The key for Tim Lincecum is to stay ahead of hitters and beware of the bottom of the lineup.  With these Rangers there are no easy outs except when Cliff Lee will have to bat in Game 1.  Bengie Molina has been huge for Texas batting out of the eight hole so Lincecum needs to control the likes of him and Mitch Moreland, another bat in the bottom who has been hitting well so far in the playoffs at .389.  There is no big bat to be scared of on the Giants, but there are so many guys who can beat you slapping big hits like Freddy Sanchez, Aubrey Huff, Buster Posey, Juan Uribe, and Pablo Sandoval.

Here is my pick.  TEX in 7.  This one will be very back and forth, but here's the order of wins I have: Game 1 is Texas, Game 2 is San Francisco, Game 3 is San Francisco, Game 4 and Game 5 are Texas, Game 6 is San Francisco, and Game 7 is Texas.  Neither team is afraid to win on the road, with both teams combining to go 4-2 in New York and Philadelphia.  The series MVP I believe will be Josh Hamilton, but that is nearly impossible to guess.

I am in the process of making an article for both teams, about what uniqueness has gotten them here.  So come back to read that!

Note: Bengie Molina can't be too disappointed with being traded from a contender.  His former team, the Giants, plays his current team, the Rangers in this World Series.  He earns a World Series ring either way, so it's a literal win-win.  Of course, the ginger ale celebration with his Rangers would be nice, so there's a bonus to that side of the win-win.

Postseason Preview: LCS

So I got three of four series correct in the LDS.   The only one I got wrong was Phillies-Reds, and if I were to get one wrong that would be the one I would want because that was the long shot pick.  The League Championship Series on both sides should be exciting, but I have to admit my attention keeps veering over to the American League.  The Yankees are such a great team and do so much right, yet it's exactly a team like the Rangers that could beat them.  What the Rangers are doing right now is so incredible, and the fans have to be feeling it too.  The weird part is, the Rangers lost two games at home when they could've won the series only to take the finale in St. Petersburg, which wrapped up just a terrible home three game performance by the Rays.  It was the first time in postseason history a road team won every game.  Believe it or not, the Yankees and Rangers aren't all that separated when it comes to pitching.  The national media and MLB Network have mentioned that the Yankees should be glad that the ALDS went on so long for the Rangers, because now Cliff Lee won't start Game 1.  I see this differently.  I think it works out better for the Rangers, because in Game 1 Lee would be going against C.C. Sabathia and that is likely to be a low scoring game, and the Yankees have a better chance of beating Lee there which really hurts the Rangers chances.  It's C.J. Wilson starting Game 1, a 15-game winner whose 3.35 ERA is only 17 points worse than Sabathia's.  Anybody remember Sabathia's postseason struggles in 2007?  How about 2008?  2009 not so much, but it's hard to forget 20 ER in 19 IP with 17 walks and 27 hits over two seasons.  Wilson could easily pitch a good game and, with some run support, steal a win in the first one.  Phil Hughes went 18-8 but had an ERA nearly half a run higher than the less lucky run support recipient Colby Lewis at just 12-13.  That is pretty much an even matchup and could go either way.  Andy Pettitte goes in the third against Lee, and Pettitte's last season injuries may affect his performance.  Lee is on a serious hot streak and can't be stopped, here he gets the nod at home which he didn't have in either of his starts in the ALDS.  That is certainly a winnable game for the Texas Rangers.  They aren't afraid to win on the road.  With the increased intensity of the ALCS, I think the Rangers will also start winning at home now.  I'm going Rangers.  It's more realistic than it seems, as the Yankees will probably overlook them as Michigan would overlook Appalachian State (we all know how that turned out).  TEX in 6.

Over to Philly for Game 1 against San Fran.  Roy Halladay will not throw another no-hitter, and this time the Phillies need to realize their opponent has something the Reds didn't: momentum.  The Reds were sort of cruising along, clinched the title on a big homer then just relaxed until the playoffs.  The Giants are coming off this intense series with Atlanta and then it got emotional at the end with Bobby Cox.  All of this is why the Giants will be excited and setting up an offense against Halladay, if even just a bit.  Tim Lincecum was dominant his first start of the playoffs, and the Giants have a great shot to win if he does that again.  Jonathan Sanchez, not Matt Cain, goes in Game 2.  Interesting move by Bruce Bochy to save his #2 for Game 3 at home, which in my opinion is more important than Game 2 if the other team has home-field advantage.  The Phillies will likely go with Hamels and Oswalt in those spots, or possibly flipped.  I think it matters less to the series because the bottom line is both are real good pitchers.  Real good.  I like the Giants bullpen over the Phillies this season.  They have the setup men in place including a ridiculous run by Ramon Ramirez.  The always consistent Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo are the other two keys guys in play here.  The problem for me is, as much as I want the Giants to win, I know it's unlikely.  There is just too much to ignore with the pitching, and the chances the Giants escape and low scoring pitchers duel is unlikely because, despite the Phillies midseason offense struggles, they still swing the bat much, much better than the Giants.  Aubrey Huff and Buster Posey have all the power responsibility on their shoulders, and that's kind of a lot to ask for an above average vet and rookie.  Ryan Howard had one of the worst years of his career, which isn't saying much, and I think he will struggle in the series because of the power pitching mixed with the offspeed stuff.  With that heat the Giants have, it won't take much to smoke Howard.  Chase Utley is dangerous and pesky, while the definition of pesky is Shane Victorino.  The other offensive weapons in Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, and Jimmy Rollins do many things right.  The Giants were also not afraid to win on the road, so home field advantage may be overrated this year (home teams went 8-12 in the LDS).  PHI in 5.

Note: Goodbye, Bobby Cox.  I'm not sure what to make of the Braves hiring Fredi Gonzalez that very next day, though.  A great hire, but I'm not sure about the timing.  It's like they were trying to quickly forget about him or something, when I believe now is when the Braves and fans should have some time to reflect on his accomplishments.  In Spring Training some experts said the Braves would manage one last playoff spot for Cox, and I didn't think they could do it.  Hat off to you, Atlanta.

Homestand Wrapup: Philadelphia, Houston, St. Louis

Record: 6-4

Final Record: 45-54

Games Behind First: 10 GB

The Cubs caught fire on this homestand.  The record may not show it, but the Cubs really started to put everything together in this week of 10 home games, the longest homestand of the year.  With two of the three teams in playoff contention for the past few years, the Cubs would be put to the test.  Ironically, they went 5-2 against those two teams but struggled against the 5th place Houston Astros.

The Phillies came to town after the All-Star Break pretty beaten up.  They're missing Chase Utley, their All-Star 2B, Placido Polanco, Jamie Moyer, whose future in baseball is now in question at 47 years old, and they're also missing consistent production from 38 year old Raul Ibanez.  The Phillies were falling behind the Atlanta Braves and were just trying to hang on until their stars return which will permit them to make a run at it.  Starlin Castro was credited with a steal of home on what should have been a wild pitch to give the Cubs a 3-2 lead Thursday night, and they never looked back.  Homers by Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, and Geovany Soto and two two-run doubles by Aramis Ramirez allowed the Cubs to cruise to a 12-6 victory despite the unreliable Bob Howry giving up four in the ninth.  He gave up two RBI singles and then a two-run homer to Ryan Howard, his second such homer of the night.  Ramirez, already on a hot streak at the time, came up in the clutch Friday.  Trailing 3-1 in the 6th, Marlon Byrd hit a two-run homer to tie the game and then two innings later Ramirez gave the Cubs the lead with a homer of his own.  The Cubs once again overcame a homer by Howard to win.  Saturday had the kind of game that you can't lose when you are a team trying to get back in the race but down a whole bunch of games.  Excitingly scoring in a scoreless ballgame was Starlin Castro in the 7th and the Cubs looked for a shutout.  Carlos Marmol was brought on for the save and the wrong Marmol showed up that day.  He beat himself rather than letting the Phillies beat him allowing five walks to just one hit in only two thirds of an inning.  Four runs came around and just like that Brad Lidge shut the door in a very frustrating loss.  Moving onto Sunday night the Cubs knew a win would be tough off Roy Halladay.  However, the Cubs impressively jumped on him supporting Tom Gorzelanny with a homer from Soto in the second, a four-run inning.  Later, Soriano homered to drive in two including himself.  The Phillies made it 6-3, but a five-run 7th opened the game wide open.  Halladay went just six innings, an unusual low for the veteran, as the Cubs took three of four from Philly.

The Astros aren't having a season to remember.  Filled with a few overpaid veteran contracts with guys past their prime and minor leaguers with little talent rushed to the bigs, the Houston franchise is pretty out of sorts right now.  Years of neglect to develop talent in the minors is hurting them badly as the franchise is in 5th place.  The Cubs really wanted a series win against a poor team like this.  Carlos Silva struggled badly in the 1st Inning of the game Monday night, allowing five in his only inning pitched.  Jason Castro hit a three-run homer in the 3rd, his 2nd career homer and that gave the Astros an unbelievable 8-0 lead. Soon enough, however, the Cubs offense started to piece together a rally.  Two runs had already scored for the Cubs in the game when Tyler Colvin hit a solo shot, followed by Aramis Ramirez launching a two-run homer that really was amazing in the moment because the Cubs offense didn't usually fight back like they did Monday.  Four runs put the game out of reach including a homer from Chris Johnson, his first Major League homer.  Tuesday night the writer witnessed the best home game for the Cubs all season.  The Astros, in their red alternate road uniforms like always, got another early lead this time for six runs.  Ramirez hit a solo homer to chip into the lead that looked somewhat meaningless at the time.  Chris Johnson hit another homer, his second in as many days, and that negated Ramirez's cut into the lead.  Wesley Wright, making his first career start for Houston, really ran into trouble in the 5th.  A passed ball after a strikeout of Xavier Nady brought in a run, and then a Starlin Castro RBI groundout, and then another homer for Ramirez, this time a three-run homer.  Just like that, it became a 7-6 game.  The Cubs took advantage of their momentum now with Geovany Soto hitting a huge tater to center over the Batters Eye lounge (447 feet!) to tie it up.  But the Cubs weren't done yet.  Derrek Lee picked up three RBI over the next two innings and Alfonso Soriano added an RBI single, and that set the stage for history.  Coming up with a 11-7 lead, Aramis Ramirez batted with two on and an excited crowd backing him for what would happen next.  Another fly ball went zooming into the night, and Ramirez incredibly got his third homer of the night!  He is the first Cub to do that since Alfonso Soriano did it in Cincinnati in 2008 after he did it in Atlanta in 2007.  Ryan Dempster joked after the game about not getting the win despite watching his team score 14.  For the finale the Cubs became frustrating again because they were not able to get a hit when they needed to.  Tied at 1 almost the entire game, the Cubs put runners on base in the bottom of the 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th including multiple runners in all except the 10th.  If they had scored in any of the first three innings mentioned, it's game over.  But no, the Cubs did like they always do and they let the other team just sit and hang around until they come back and beat you.  Interestingly Soto hit a two-run homer in the 12th but it was too late and the Cubs lost by one.

A frustrating series loss to Houston gave the Cubs an off day to stew in their anger before the rival Cardinals came to town.  These games would prove to be crucial with the Cubs chasing them in the division, down by 11 games at the start of the series.  On Friday afternoon, Randy Wells gave the Cubs pure greatness forgetting his catastrophic start his last time against the Cardinals.  He allowed hits to the first five batters and didn't record an out back in May.  Wells went seven shutout innings to earn the win supported by homers from Colvin, Soto, and Soriano all of whom appeared pretty hot this homestand.  Colvin hit another leadoff homer on Saturday, pretending to be Soriano, but the lead didn't last long.  Tyler Greene singled in two runs, but that lead didn't last long either.  Starlin Castro hit his first Wrigley Field homer to give the Cubs the lead again 3-2.  A critical wild pitch in the 5th with a ball that was thrown away proved extremely important as the 6-3 lead would prove necessary as the Cardinals crawled their way back to 6-5 in the 8th.  The Cubs pulled out the nail biter however, Carlos Marmol picking up the save.  If the Cubs could sweep Sunday night on ESPN then they would be just eight games back of the Cardinals.  After an early 2-0 lead for St. Louis, the Cubs came back with rallies in the 4th and 5th.  Albert Pujols homered in the 6th to tie it, locking up the score for extra innings.  Again the Cubs wasted opportunities and Felipe Lopez burned them with a go-ahead homer in the 11th for the win.

The Cubs could have easily been 9-1 on this homestand.  The only game where they were truly beat was the one on Monday night against the Astros, and even then they put up a great fight.  But little issues like Carlos Marmol on Saturday and offense hitting with runners in scoring position didn't allow the Cubs to make as much progress as they would have liked.  As I said before, the Cubs to are looking better and beginning to put things together but the Astros series this week in Houston certainly isn't promising.  They'll be put to the test against a good team in the Rockies this weekend at Coors Field, where the Cubs are 38-36 all-time.

Bold Predictions: Start of Summer

This is my first in the Bold Predictions segment, but I plan to do this occasionally.  I am definitely not going to get all of these right, but they're out there for you to chew on.  Some are kind of surprising, others not as much.

Personal Predictions:
-Ubaldo Jimenez, ERA (0.93) and Wins (11) leader of the NL, continues his dominance to win 20 games and win the Cy Young just like Zach Greinke did in surprising fashion in the AL last year.
-Josh Beckett, now injured and frustrated with a 7.29 ERA in eight starts, returns and becomes slightly effective although he never completely gets his stuff back.    He finishes with an ERA in the mid 4s. 
-Paul Konerko (17 HR) fades after the All-Star Break or possibly sooner, but still finishes with about 30 home runs. 
-Jose Bautista (18 HR) of the Jays does the same.
-Aramis Ramirez (.169 AVG, 22 RBI) who has been arguably the most disappointing hitter in the NL, recovers in the summer and catches fire in July.  He cools off at the end of the year, but finishes around .260 with 25 HR and 75 RBI.
-For the second time in three years, Miguel Cabrera leads the AL in HR and throws in a nice 125 or so RBI.
-Alex Rios (12 HR, 17 SB) continues resurrect his career with his 25-25 talent.

-Stephen Strasburg, the most overhyped big league prospect of all time, finishes 2010 with around 2.50 ERA after hitters make the adjustments to hit that 103 mph fastball.  He throws about 100 innings in the Nationals' rotation.

-Jason Heyward, another guy who had a lot of hype around him, gets 25 HR and 100 RBI.

I hope you're chewing that good.  Because at the All-Star Break, you might just look back and go, "How did he know that???"  Also, I'm introducing a new series call Wrap-Ups.  The two forms of the series are 'Road Trip Wrap-Up' and 'Homestand Wrap-Up'.  These will appear after each road trip and homestand and will go over some stats and review the games, including analysis and discussion.  Then, I'll get you set for the next opponents.  The first issue of 'Road Trip Wrap-Up' will appear after this current trip to Pittsburgh, Houston, and Milwaukee is over this Thursday.  Also, look forward to special coverage of the Crosstown Classic.

Team Predictions:
-The Rangers (30-26, 1st in AL West by .5 games), behind the continued hot hitting of surprising Vladimir Guerrero and regular Josh Hamilton, extend their lead in the division to at least three by the All-Star Break.  The Angels stay in the race, but finish near 85 wins as the Rangers win the division by at least five.
-The Rays (37-20, 1st in AL East by 2 games) lose their division lead to the Yankees although they continue to win all year and the Rays will be right there with them at the Break.
-The Red Sox (33-25, 3rd) stop getting so lucky with guys like Clay Buchholz and see a big gap in the division appear between them and the Yankees and Rays.
-Amazingly, the Blue Jays (33-25) hang in there and take 3rd while the Red Sox fade.
-The Braves (33-24, 1st in NL East by 2 games) keep winning with Troy Glaus' hot bat, putting the pressure on the Phillies.
-The Mets (30-27, 3rd) keep winning as well to pass the Phillies, in 2nd place by the All-Star Break.
-The Phillies (30-25, 2nd), who stop pitching when Roy Halladay isn't on and still can't hit, prove to everyone that they aren't the team 'that we thought they were.'
-I shouldn't do this, but the Cubs (25-31, 3rd in NL Central by 8 games) start winning a bit and pass up the Cardinals on their way down.  The Reds and Cubs battle it out beginning after the All-Star Break.
-For the first time since 2006, the Padres (33-23) and Dodgers (33-24) reunite a geographical rivalry as they fight for the NL West down the stretch.  The Rockies and DBacks hang around .500, but can't muster a big winning streak enough to catch up.

Opening Day Aces

13 games, 26 teams, 26 aces.  Those are some stats, but I have some much better: 1,922.  That is the total number of wins from today's Opening Day starters combined.  2,430 is the number of games in a season.  If 1,922 is about 4/5 of 2,430, imagine every game of last season excluding September.  All of those games have been won by one of these starters.  The leader of the group is Roy Halladay, whose 148 wins beats Derek Lowe's 141.  John Lannan of the Nationals has only 20 career wins, lowest on the list narrowly beating Yovani Gallardo's 22, Shawn Marcum's 24 and Scott Feldman's 24.

A few notable starters:
-Jon Garland, now the ace in San Diego, makes the Opening Day start.
-The A's hand the ball to Ben Sheets who hasn't pitched since 2008.
-The Indians give the start to Jake Westbrook who hasn't pitched since May 2008.
-Vicente Padilla starts for the ace-less Dodgers.

The matchups for today (bold games are the matchups I suggest watching):
All times CT, TV listings for Chicago area (if applicable)

Indians (Jake Westbrook)
at White Sox (Mark Buehrle)
1:05 PM  ESPN2, CSN

Phillies (Roy Halladay)
at Nationals (John Lannan)
12:05 PM

Marlins (Josh Johnson)
at Mets (Johan Santana)
12:10 PM

Cardinals (Chris Carpenter)
at Reds (Aaron Harang)
12:10 PM  ESPN

Dodgers (Vicente Padilla)
at Pirates (Zach Duke)
12:35 PM

Blue Jays (Shawn Marcum)
at Rangers (Scott Feldman)
1:05 PM

Tigers (Justin Verlander)
at Royals (Zack Greinke)
3:10 PM

Rockies (Ubaldo Jimenez)
at Brewers (Yovani Gallardo)
1:10 PM

Cubs (Carlos Zambrano)
at Braves (Derek Lowe)
3:10 PM  ESPN, WCIU

Padres (Jon Garland)
at D-Backs (Dan Haren)
4:10 PM

Giants (Tim Lincecum)
at Astros (Roy Oswalt)
6:05 PM  ESPN2

Twins (Scott Baker)
at Angels (Jered Weaver)
9:05 PM  ESPN2

Mariners (Felix Hernandez)
at A's (Ben Sheets)
9:05 PM