The 2011 All-Division Team, Part 1: AL East

Jose Bautista highlights a stacked division yet again.

Part 1 of 6: American League East

Here again for the second year in a row is the Cubs Insider All-Division Team, back for 2011.  This year the posts will be divided into six; one for each division, going East to West in both leagues.  In this first installment of my ramblings, I'll be going over the best (most valuable to his team's season performance) of the Orioles, Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, and Red Sox by position.  Runners-up are listed in no particular order and any player who has won the award again after winning it last season is noted as such.

C Matt Wieters, BAL
After 2010 award winner John Buck departed Toronto for Florida last offseason and Jorge Posada was effectively benched indefinitely from the Yankees' signing of Russell Martin, there was not a clear favorite to take the throne in this division.  In his third season, Wieters blossomed at age 25, earning his first trip to the All-Star Game and capping off another forgettable Orioles season with a little hardware for himself, his first Gold Glove award.  A 4.0 WAR and 22 homers don't hurt either, and a notably decreased strikeout rate (which was already low to begin with) show that these probably won't be the last of awards for the South Carolina native.  Competition: Kelly Shoppach (TB), Russell Martin (NYY), J.P. Arencibia (TOR), Jarrod Saltamacchia (BOS).

1B Adrian Gonzalez, BOS (2nd, first with Red Sox)
A-Gon narrowly had the best season of his career despite playing in a drastically better lineup in 2011 than ever before.  That speaks to Gonzalez's consistency no matter who his teammates are, whether they're on base or not.  The fact is Gonzalez was an excellent fit for the Red Sox with his opposite-field power for the Green Monster and he proved it with an All-Star selection, Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger.  There's certainly talent at the position in the division with Mark Teixeira blasting 39 homers in the Bronx and Adam Lind holding his own north of the border, but Gonzalez fit right in with the established Red Sox core and got them deep into the playoffs.  Competition: Casey Kotchman (TB), Mark Teixeira (NYY), Adam Lind (TOR), Derrek Lee (BAL).

2B Robinson Cano, NYY (2nd)
Critics will argue that Dustin Pedroia's combination of power and speed both contributed more to the Red Sox, but I make the argument that if Pedroia goes down for a month in the regular season, I see the Red Sox surviving in the standings more than I do if the Yankees were to lose Cano.  On an aging team where Cano is one of only three starters under 30, Cano is great lineup protection for Teixeira, especially this season as Alex Rodriguez had a dismal year.  Competition: Ben Zobrist (TB), Dustin Pedroia (BOS), Robert Andino (BAL), Aaron Hill (TOR).

3B Evan Longoria, TB 
In a group with Mark Reynolds, Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis, and Longoria, I would have thought this running would come down to the wire.  Instead, this choice was rather easy.  Despite a .244 batting average, Longoria's OBP that's over 100 points higher and 31 home runs helped him win the running.  Besides, he'll always be remembered this season for one of the biggest hits of the year, the walk-off homer against the Yankees to win the AL Wild Card away from the Red Sox.  Competition: Kevin Youkilis (BOS), Alex Rodriguez (NYY), Mark Reynolds (BAL), and Brett Lawrie (TOR).

J.J. Hardy's career is back in
full swing (pun intended).

SS J.J. Hardy, BAL
Perhaps Hardy has found a permanent home on his third team in as many years, as a breakout season saw consistent power throughout on his way to an incredible 30 home runs from the shortstop.  I want to believe it isn't a fluke, and I have confidence that it is not.  But no matter how the Orioles were doing this season, Hardy was the team MVP in being a model power hitter; never great at getting on base, but a decent contact hitter and defender nonetheless.  Competition: Derek Jeter (NYY), Marco Scutaro (BOS), Reid Brignac (TB), and Yunel Escobar (TOR).

LF Sam Fuld, TB
'Super Sam' walked onto a weak field of incumbents by taking left field in 2011.  Early on the season, however, Fuld made a real impact on the Rays.  Despite getting nearly a full season's worth of at-bats, his defensive WAR exceeded his offensive WAR.  Making highlight reel catches and clutch hits on a daily basis, the scrappy little former Cub even inspired a Super Sam cape promotion at Tropicana Field.  Competition: Nolan Reimold (BAL), Brett Gardner (NYY), Carl Crawford (BOS), Eric Thames (TOR).

CF Curtis Granderson, NYY
I didn't think it was possible, but my man Curtis failed to get enough love in the MVP consideration, finishing only fourth in voting after a 40-25 season as a by-product of his revamped swing built with Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long in late 2010.  Granderson did have the benefits of the insanely short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium and good lineup protection, but brought a swagger-factor to the 2011 Yanks.  Oh, and led MLB in runs scored, proving that the Grandy Man Can.  Competition: Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS), Adam Jones (BAL), Rajai Davis (TOR), and B.J. Upton (TB).

RF Jose Bautista, TOR (2nd)
Was there really any doubt?  Joey Bats finished off his second season in out-of-nowhere stardom much like he did his first.  Bautista added 43 homers to his stat sheet like it was no big deal.  Most impressive to me, however, is his 132 walks to 111 strikeouts, resulting in an OBP of .447, nearly 150 points higher than his batting average!  Regardless of being a big slugger who often gets pitched around, 132 walks is a thing of beauty.  And after the Black Blue Jays ended another spending-October-on-the-couch season, he got to play dress up to display the Jays new threads.  Competition: Matt Joyce (TB), Nick Swisher (NYY), Nick Markakis (BAL), and J.D. Drew (BOS).

DH David Ortiz, BOS
If the designated hitter's role is known as a low on-base, high power and strikeout batter, which it often has been, then Ortiz is the anti-DH.  Getting on base nearly 40% of the time, Big Papi's late career demise of 2008 and 2009 has recovered to the extent that Ortiz is still a very smart hitter who knows how to take a few pitches.  He does strike out plenty walked nearly as much in 2011, and a new team could replenish his systems after the bad spiral the Sawks' season took.  Competition: Jorge Posada (NYY), Vladimir Guerrero (BAL), Johnny Damon (TB), and Edwin Encarnacion (TOR).

SP Ricky Romero, TOR
Yet another interesting piece the Jays have found, this 26-year-old Los Angeles native completed his third season in the big leagues and already is the definite ace of his team.  Romero doesn't give up many hits, just walks and strikeouts mostly.  Ironically, his 2.92 ERA and 15 wins were the 'stuff' of aces, and yet his 26 homers allowed wouldn't suggest an ace and was 11 more than the year before.  This kid has a lot of good years to come however.  Honorable mention to James Shields, who made this decision extremely tough.  Competition: C.C. Sabathia (NYY), Josh Beckett (BOS), and James Shields (TB), and Jeremy Guthrie (BAL).  

CP Mariano Rivera, NYY
'Mo', now 41-years-old, just struck out 60 and walked eight in 2011.  If that doesn't tell you all you need to know, maybe his .897 WHIP or his 1.91 ERA will.  Rivera is still the best at the position in the league and might as well pitch himself to the grave.  I hate the thought of handing double-digit millions to closers, but Rivera is the exception to the rule.  Just unbelievable.  Competition: Kevin Gregg (BAL), Kyle Farnsworth (TB), Jonathan Papelbon (BOS), Frank Francisco (TOR).

Well that's all I have for now.  Back with more soon.  I hope everyone is having a nice holiday weekend!

"The Most Inexplicable Trade Ever?"

Now that the well-publicized Vernon Wells to the Angels for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera has sunk in for more than a week, I think it's time we compare.  Is this deal the worst trade of the offseason?  Of the decade?  Ever?

The worst trade in the recent history of baseball before the Wells deal is, in my opinion, when the Expos traded Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore to the Indians for Bartolo Colon back in 2002.  Colon had won 75 games over the past six seasons with the Indians, while none between Phillips, Lee, or Sizemore had even debuted in the Major Leagues.  Sizemore was just 19 at the time.  Colon went on to win 10 games for the Expos in 2004, then leave as a free agent that very offseason.  His WAR for that half season was 2.3.  In their respective careers, Phillips, Lee, and Sizemore have totaled a 51.9 WAR in the Major Leagues, although the Indians trade Phillips and eventually Lee also.  The bottom line is that the Expos sent their three best prospects for just one player in return, a 'rental' at that, seeing as how they knew Colon would be a free agent after that very season.  Clearly, it wasn't worth it.

Brandon Phillips has not gotten the most attention out there, but he quietly produces on the now-contending Reds.  His best season came in 2007, his second full season manning second base for Cincinnati in which he had a 30-30 offensive season, earning him some MVP votes.  He's been a consistent 20-20 player since 2006, but his run production took a step backward in 2010.  He was also thrown out 12 times to only 16 steals, but the 30 year old has lots of time to keep producing for the Reds.  His attitude and teammate chemistry make him a very valuable part to a Cincinnati Reds team that now depends on his leadership to contend.

Cliff Lee has arguably been in more trade/free agency rumors than any other player since 2009.  Playing for four teams in two seasons, Lee has become quite the hot commodity over this time.  Perhaps his most highly regarded trait is his control, something GMs scramble to acquire.  Lee walked just 61 in 444 innings between 2009 and 2010.  This is exactly the player Lee could have become playing for the Nationals, assuming they could sign him to an extension.  In 2005, just three years after the trade, Lee finished fourth in Cy Young voting with an 18-5 record and a 3.79 ERA.  The 2005 Nationals were a contending team in the first half, but lacked rotation depth and faded in the second half so Lee would have probably helped them become a winner.

Grady Sizemore was a 20-20 player in his first full season in 2005, at the age of 22.  He continued this trend until 2008, when he improved to 30-30.  From 2004-2007, he had a 3.7 defensive WAR, a signature characteristic of a five tool outfielder.  Oh, and he also had a 17.2 WAR over that time, followed by a 5.3 in 2008.  Although injuries have derailed his performance the last two seasons, Sizemore was arguably the best outfielder of the mid 2000s.  His combination of power, speed, defense, and enthusiasm for the game were enough to call him probably one of the best players in baseball as well.

Meanwhile, Bartolo Colon's career with his new team lasted a full three months and 17 starts.  The highlight of his tenure with Montreal came on August 19, 2002, when he shut out the Padres at home allowing two hits and two walks on 95 pitches.  Besides that and Colon's 10 wins in that second half, not much came to the Expos in this deal.  Colon signed with the White Sox in the offseason and good season there in 2003, and the Expos were left with nothing.  Essentially, the Expos gave up three future All-Stars in exchange for half a season from a decent starter in a season where the Expos never came close to the playoffs.

While that trade looks bad because Colon was gone in half a season and the other three are having great careers, Vernon Wells will probably have a decent career for quite some time on the Angels.  The fact that Wells is a good player is not being disputed by many; this trade looks worse on paper.  Wells' salary will not make his production worth it, and the Angels gave up the two following players:

Mike Napoli hit 20 homers for the third straight season in 2010, keeping up his reputation as a great power hitter for a catcher.  Napoli has always been a minus defensively, but his bat makes him a valuable commodity to a contending team, especially since power out of the catcher spot is hard to find.  Immediately after being traded to Toronto, the Blue Jays turned around and swung him to Texas.  Napoli is a great player to have on a winning team, which the Rangers figure to be in 2011.

Juan Rivera has also always been a negative defensively, but an effective player nonetheless.  Rivera had his best season in 2009, hitting 25 homers and 88 RBI in 138 games.  He doesn't walk much and probably won't make a big overall impact on a lineup on his own, making his best role a fourth outfielder or third outfielder subject to frequent substitution.

To be sure, Vernon Wells has had a nice career.  He was a consistent cog in the Toronto outfield for almost the entire 2000s.  From 2002-2010, Wells averaged .279 with 25 homers, 89 RBI, 9 steals, and a total 28.0 offensive WAR over that time period.  Despite two subpar seasons in 2007 and 2009, it's hard to look at the stat sheet and not realize he was a great player for some time.  

Now here's where it gets really, really ugly.  Vernon Wells enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2010, swatting 31 homers and 88 RBI.  But even that isn't good enough to live up to his contract.  The 32 year old Wells hit 16 or less homers in both 2007 and 2009 (in full seasons), providing for a real head scratcher as to why the Blue Jays would reward a 'slugger' with those gaping holes in the stat sheet with 7 years, $126 million.  Although the deal was signed in December 2006, it didn't go into effect until 2010, the first year of the deal.  Wells made over $15 million in 2010, but it gets worse.  Wells' deal runs for four more seasons, so he'll be 35 at the end, over which time the Angels are due to pay him around  $86 million.  In 2011, he's due $23 million and will be due $21 million in 2012, 2013, and 2014.  The $23 million he will make next season was higher than any non-Yankee in baseball.  Miguel Cabrera was the only player not playing in New York to earn $20 million in 2010, giving you an idea of what Wells' salary will be compared to.  Remember, although Wells has had some good seasons like 2010, he had two very bad seasons for a player who is being paid to drive the ball and these two seasons were recent.  Look at his stats page, scroll down to the Standard Batting chart, and notice the two seasons I've highlighted in blue.

So he's getting paid.  Like seriously paid.  Big time dough.  All that cash for a guy who's being paid for the run production, but is well past his peak and proof of that comes in the form of those two awful seasons that were 2007 and 2009.  And all that cash for a guy who had his best season, like, eight years ago.  His career highs in games, at-bats, plate appearances, runs, hits, doubles, homers (only 33), RBI, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, total bases, and even times hit by pitch, all came in 2003.  In 2003, he had lineup protection in Carlos Delgado behind him and table setters in Frank Catalanotto and Shannon Stewart in front of him, all three of whom are now out of the Majors.  Heading to the Angels, his only table setters will likely be Howie Kendrick and/or Erick Aybar, and his only lineup protection will be Torii Hunter.  The setup was better on the Blue Jays, and although a change of scenery could help him, his ceiling is low because there's no chance he will do much better than his 2010 output, if he even gets to that mark.  His career high of 33 homers in 2003 is nowhere near the career highs of the sluggers he is being to hit like.

In conclusion, I think the Vernon Wells trade is the worst trade of recent baseball history, worse than the Bartolo Colon deal.  Angels GM Tony Reagins had taken a lot of criticism nationwide for his whiffs on Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Beltre.  This move was, without doubt, a desperation move to try to compensate for missing on those elite players.  But not only does Reagins have to give up two decent players in Napoli and Rivera, he is now stuck with what most baseball experts cite as 'baseball's most untradeable player' in Wells and his enormous contract.  In the Bartolo Colon trade of 2002, Colon was gone by that offseason and although this didn't give the Expos much value, it also didn't tie down their future, either.  Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips all went on to be great players, but it's unlikely the Expos would have been able to resign all three or even two once they became established stars.  And now the Angels will have limited financial flexibility for at least the next offseason due to this contract monstrosity.  So while Wells may be smiling ear to ear to be out of Toronto where he never made the playoffs, Reagins won't be in four years.                

Hot Stove Buzz #5

NOTE: This is the 100th post in the history of the Cubs Insider blog!  Thank you!

-If there's Cubs news out there, it should come first.  And here it is.  Reed Johnson, the defensive whiz Cub fans love from his tenure at Wrigley between 2008 and 2009, has been signed by the Cubs to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training.  Despite seeing action in just 174 games and getting just 560 plate appearances between the two seasons due to injury and his bench role, he still quickly became a fan favorite for his hustle and unbelievable otherworldly defensive skills.  While his arm isn't the best by any means, he covers a lot of ground and almost seems to enjoy diving and crashing into stuff to make a catch.  For intense Cub fans, the catch he made in the top photo will be remembered for quite some time.  Actually, so will the photo below that.  The bottom line is, it looks like the Cubs have their fifth outfielder.  Fernando Perez looked like the favorite to be the team's fifth outfielder if five outfielders where going to make the roster; that being in spite of the fact that Perez likely needs more seasoning in the minors.  It will be hard to find Johnson playing time in a five man rotation with four guys already dying to play everyday, but don't be surprised to see Johnson sneak his way in the lineup from time to time.
-In other news, baseball's all-time saves leader in Trevor Hoffman retired today.  With 601 saves, he is the only man to reach the 600 mark but likely will be overpassed by Mariano Rivera, who got 500 in June 2009 and has 559 heading into 2011.  Hoffman had a really, really bad 2010 and although he was able to get to the big 600 mark, it's sad to see players once so great struggle like this.  Ken Griffey, Jr. went through the same thing in 2010, and it's just sad to see players who used to mean so much to fans just kind of fade off into retirement after a bad year and few people wanting them to come back.
-The Yankees have been looking at outfielder Andruw Jones for a while.  Jones went way under the radar in 2010, hitting only .230 but also hitting 19 homers in slightly more than half a season's worth of at-bats.  If he were given the keys to a starting job, with the Yankees or the also-rumored Rays, I believe he could shine once again just like back in the day.  He's only 33 and has shown he has a lot of power still.  I worry though, that at his age and that he has played in an average of only 88 games per season since 2008, he could lose interest and confidence in baseball if he doesn't get the chance to contribute to a winning team.  At 407 career home runs, he could easily make it to 500 with a few good seasons.
-The Cardinals are "hopeful" that they can resign first baseman Albert Pujols to a big deal before the season starts, at which time Pujols will no longer negotiate until after the season.  If the Cardinals don't get a deal done this spring, they will have a very short exclusive time to negotiate in the fall before Pujols hits the open market- a scary thought to all Cardinals fans.  Well I think they'd better hurry up and give the man the money he wants or just not do it at all, because he has made the franchise over the last decade and should be given the decency to know his fate.
-The Tigers will gamble on starter Brad Penny for $3.3 million, most likely filling their #5 spot in the rotation.  The Tigers could use a reliable veteran in the rotation, and Penny did well in nine starts for the Giants in 2010.  After five good years with the Dodgers, Penny was a bust for the Red Sox in 2009, but has always pitched well in his season and a half for San Francisco.  The question that remains is, how will he adjust to this change?  We'll see soon enough.

Hot Stove Buzz #2

It's been a very busy week of transactions, and here on Day 3 of the Winter Meetings we find ourselves with a whole bunch of players in new uniforms.

-The Padres have acquired Jason Bartlett in a trade with Tampa Bay for two relievers.  After losing Miguel Tejada to San Francisco, the Padres have their starting shortstop.  Bartlett had a very down year in 2010, surprisingly only hitting .254.
-The Cubs want Matt Garza, and are one of four teams going after him.  The Rays, on their end of the trade, want prospects according to Tim Dierkes of mlbtraderumors.com.  I think that these prospects are definitely going to be pitchers, preferably relievers.  Unfortunately, the Rays are unloading a lot of their guys and it kind of looks like rebuilding all over again.  They had a nice three year run in winning with a star-studded team, but their small market limitations have caught up to them.
-The Orioles acquired Mark Reynolds in a trade with the Diamondbacks.  Interestingly, the Orioles have been very active on the hot stove this offseason, something we don't usually see from them.  They are now also looking into acquiring Kevin Gregg and J.J. Hardy or Brendan Ryan.  Sounds like Buck Showalter brought that winning stuff to the air in Baltimore and the front office is finally picking up the slack and getting some deals moving.  This should be a memo to other perennially bad teams that don't have front offices willing to go after who they need.
-Who knows what is going to happen with Cliff Lee?  Lee's agent just left the hotel in Florida where the baseball Winter Meetings are, and this is annoying to general managers.  Specifically, the Yankees and Rangers' respective GMs would like to know if they are going to be dishing out $100+ million or not.  No biggie, though.
-The Nationals signed Jayson Werth to a 7 year deal worth $126 million.  Many in the baseball community consider the 8 year, $136 million deal from the Cubs with Alfonso Soriano to be one of the worst contracts of the 2000s considering Soriano, coming off a 40 homer-40 steal season, has never hit more than 33 homers or stolen more than 19 bases with the Cubs.  But let me make an argument to call this one a bad contract, right off the bat (no pun intended.  With Jayson Werth, we are looking at a guy that is 32, has 120 career homers, has 87 homers and 251 RBI in the last three years, but only had 33 homers and 155 RBI in his career before that.  Werth averaged 29 homers and nearly 18 steals from 2008-2010, so far the highlight years of his career.  Alfonso Soriano, on the other hand, had averaged more than 37 homers a season from 2002-2006, the five years before the signing, and had averaged more than 34 steals a season from 2001-2006, the six seasons before the signing.  Soriano was 30 when he was signed, two years younger than Werth.  In his four seasons on the Cubs, Soriano has averaged only 26 homers and 13 steals per season.  He's hitting for a low average now, has virtually no speed, is a minus defensively, and has a bat that can only be counted on for 20 homers a season.  With four years still remaining on Soriano's contract, he has gone from being a 40-40 player to a 20-5 player.  If Werth is 32, has only proven himself for three seasons, and had less talent to begin with, how long will it be before the Nationals realize they made a big mistake?  Werth was a late bloomer, so he probably has three more elite seasons.  But after that, who knows.  These elite contracts with huge salaries towards the end snuff out trade talks extremely fast, as the Cubs could tell you.
-Adam Dunn decided to come to Chicago, but to the wrong side.  The Sox signed Dunn for four years, $56 million.  This is a great signing because it fits the White Sox.  With a great hitters park in US Cellular Field, Dunn could hit upwards of 45 homers in 2011 and beyond.  The Tigers were the main competitor to get Dunn, but they were less aggressive after their signing of Victor Martinez because Martinez can play first base.  The Nationals weren't too happy about the signing, so they are forced to look for other options.  Sox GM Ken Williams tried to get Dunn at the trade deadline but a potential deal never materialized, so he was stuck with Manny Ramirez.  The Sox may deal some of their main guys like Carlos Quentin so it's good that whatever happens the Sox have a definite guy to bat cleanup everyday.
-Paul Konerko, also of the White Sox, signed a new deal with the Sox for three years and $37.5 million.  On MLB Network today, A.J. Pierzynski said that he knows for a fact that Konerko took a discount for coming back to his 'hometown'.  Now with Adam Dunn, these two make a great combo in the middle of the lineup that can be counted on for 75 homers.  Now that there is some big pop.

-Finally, Derek Jeter signed with the Yankees.  Of course, the Yankees overpaid with $51 million for three years, but Jeter still wasn't happy about it.  “To hear the organization tell me to go shop it when I just told you I wasn’t going to — if I’m going to be honest with you, I was angry about it,” said Jeter.  He can't complain about the money, though.  For a guy that in 2010 batted .270, his worst since his rookie season in 1995, hit only 10 homers, and stole only 18 bases, more than $15 million a year is out of the question.  The majority of that money is from respect for the Yankees all-time hits leader.  Personally, I think he should shut up and take the money.  I have no sympathy for a guy fighting over millions that don't even matter and are just a sign of respect.  If he's so generous and as great a guy as the media makes him sound, he wouldn't care about the money at this point.  But if anyone is dumb enough to give him that money, he should take it.
-Mariano Rivera signed for two years and $30 million with the Yankees.  And the reason you didn't hear nearly as much about it is because Rivera had the dignity to agree to a reasonable contract.  He didn't disrespect himself and the Yankees by making things difficult when there really were no other competitors in landing him.
-Aubrey Huff resigned with the Giants, being one of the key role players in the World Series run.  He only got a modest $22 million over two years, and although he is 33, he may have been able to get more money elsewhere.  Luckily for San Francisco, he signed before he could take any real time to examine other offers. 
-I'm going to go ahead and call a contract a bust.  Jorge de la Rosa, owner of a career 5.02 ERA, earned a two year, $21.5 million contract to stay with the Rockies.  De la Rosa only has a career K/BB ratio of 1.75, and I see another Oliver Perez contract in the making.  I'm sure De la Rosa is a great guy and all, but he's got to work on his control before I'm sold on a big contract for him, or even sold on him being anything more than a perennial #5 starter.
-This is very old news, but it needs to be stated.  Victor Martinez signed with the Tigers for $50 million and four years, a good signing because now you could see him at first base, catcher, or even DH.

-A.J. Pierzynski resigned with the White Sox for two years and $8 million.  He very nearly went to the Dodgers, but the deal fell through and he ends up with the Sox.

-Lance Berkman signed with the Cardinals for just one year and $8 million.  But with Albert Pujols at first base, where will he play, you wonder.  That's right, the Cardinals signed Lance Berkman at age 34 to do something he hasn't since 2007: play the outfield.  Try not to laugh.  There are going to be some 'Puma Moments in that outfield.

-Javier Vazquez got a year for $7 million from the Marlins.  The reason he only took only year is because he needs to rebuild his stock, something he can do in 2011 with his return to the NL.  His stock dropped significantly after a bad 2010 with the Yankees, and he wants to have a year this year similar to his 2009 with the Braves and then get a big multi-year contract to probably finish out his career.

         

2010-2011 Free Agency Predictions

The following players are the best of the best out there this offseason, the top free agents of the 2010-2011 Hot Stove.  Here are my predictions on where they go with a short explanation.  These predictions are very tough because when it comes right down to it any team with budget room has a shot to sign a guy, as I have learned from past experience (see: Matt Holliday, Athletics 2009 and Adam Dunn, Nationals 2009).  Well, these are my 'educated guesses'.  Free agents are ranked based off the list from mlbtraderumors.com's top 50 free agents, but the predictions and explanations are original Cubs Insider material.

1. Cliff Lee - Yankees.  It will be a serious upset if anyone but the Yankees gets one of the best starters in baseball in Lee.  Lee beat the Yankees twice in the ALCS in eliminating the Yankees on his way to the World Series, and if the Yankees get beat by a top player they are double as likely to get him the next offseason.

2. Carl Crawford - Tigers.  With a bunch of huge contracts (Magglio Ordonez, Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, etc.) coming off the books, the Tigers are revved up to spend big time dough.  Crawford is a great fit for the spacious gaps of Comerica Park making a great duo between him and Austin Jackson.  A Detroit team that appeared lifeless at times last year could use this spark plug.

3. Adrian Beltre - Angels.  The Angels are also looking to spend and will be in the Crawford sweepstakes, but this should be their top guy.  Beltre is coming off a tremendous season with the Red Sox and the Angels want a definite power bat in the middle of the order more than a bunch of aging but somewhat effective veterans (Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, Torii Hunter).

4. Jayson Werth - Red Sox.  The Red Sox have to make their annual splash, and the fan base craves a sturdy left fielder after a season with a revolving door in front of the Green Monster.  Nine players played in left field for Boston in 2010, and the Red Sox also love his power bat.

5. Adam Dunn - Cubs.  An admitted lover of hitting at Wrigley Field, the Cubs will need a power hitting lefty first baseman to contend in 2011.  The Tigers and White Sox will also be in competition for the veteran, but Dunn will end up with the Cubs for the first reason and also because of his past relationship with GM Jim Hendry, whom Dunn knows from their days in Cincinnati.

6. Victor Martinez - Tigers.  Detroit won't get Dunn, but still have a first baseman in Martinez.  This signing gives them lots of flexibility as they can use Martinez at either position or even rotate him, allowing the Tigers to start bench players and rookies and play the hot bat.  With Crawford, the Tigers will have impressively signed a power bat and leadoff guy, memo to the rest of the AL Central.

7. Rafael Soriano - White Sox.  The Angels are the favorite in this race, but the White Sox have lost almost all trust in Bobby Jenks are unlikely to want to have him as closer again.  GM Ken Williams always pulls off a few eye openers in the offseason, this being probably his biggest.  Williams, more often than not, gets his man.

8. Mariano Rivera - Yankees.  Tight race between the Yankees and Diamonbacks.  Yeah right.

9. Paul Konerko - White Sox.  The odds of him leaving are palpable and feasible, but he probably extended his Chicago career with his terrific comeback 2010 season.  Ripping 38 homers is enough to keep the great (owner) Jerry Reinsdorf-Konerko friendship alive.  If not the Sox, possibly the Angels or Diamondbacks.  Not joking this time.

10. Derek Jeter - Yankees.  See: Rivera, Mariano.  The Yankees are going to severely overpay for Jeter who is no longer an above average defender and earned another Gold Glove he doesn't deserve.  As the face of the Yankees franchise, there's pretty much no chance he will be playing anywhere but The House That Jeter Built (New Yankee Stadium) in 2011.

11. Hiroki Kuroda - Dodgers.  Kuroda could be an under the radar signing somewhere else, but the Dodgers like his durability and reliability.  For a team lacking in a true ace, Kuroda should be a solid middle rotation starter.

12. Jorge De La Rosa - Rockies.  A lefty middle rotation guy, he has some caution flags stuck on his shoulder, that being his control problems that have plagued him when has been ineffective.  Even when playing to his potential, he walks too many batters.  The kind of player rebuilding teams target, the Nationals, Royals, and Pirates have been linked to him as well.

13. Carl Pavano - Twins.  While the Twins still lack an ace since the departure of Johan Santana, Pavano, after pitching only 145.2 innings over 2005-2008 with the Yankees, has now pitched 420.1 innings over the past two seasons and is a workhorse.  The Twins need him as a key cog in that staff of mediocre to above average starters.

14. Jake Westbrook - Cardinals.  A low drama deal, the Cardinals will pay the man his money because they still need depth behind Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter.  Westbrook probably isn't the best they can do, but he's willing to come back and will take some innings.

15. Aubrey Huff - Giants.  2010's best bargain deal was Huff who hit 26 homers and led the Giants to the championship for only $3 million.  The Giants certainly won't want him to guy, they will get him back.

16. Juan Uribe - Mariners.  The historically terrible offense of the 2010 Seattle Mariners was an embarrassment to the franchise and GM Jack Zduriencik will make some moves.  Uribe seems like a logical pickup as current shortstop Josh Wilson doesn't hit well enough to start.  Uribe's 20 projected homers would be very welcome to Mariners fans.

17. Carlos Pena - Nationals.  A player to watch right here.  Pena couldn't even bat .200 in 2010 but still hit 28 homers.  With his stock taking a big hit with the low average, Pena could easily regain his status as one of the American League's best first basemen as he plays the field well and led the AL in homers with 39 in 2009.

18. Jim Thome - Twins.  For all Thome did for the Twins, he should be given one more year as the DH.  Worst case scenario, Thome ends up being traded at the deadline.

19. Vladimir Guerrero - Rangers.  Although the Rangers declined their $9 million option on Guerrero, they want him back.  Guerrero will likely have to take a pay cut if he stays with the Rangers, but he is inclined to stay while Texas is a winner.

20. Manny Ramirez - Athletics.  This may seem surprising, but it shouldn't be considering the man at the controls of the A's.  GM Billy Beane, known for his uncommon baseball wits and surprising signings, will bring in the bat.  Manny has more left in that bat than he showed with the White Sox, and a fresh start in his first small market since Cleveland should do him well.

21. Magglio Ordonez - Blue Jays.  As evidenced by their signing of Frank Thomas in 2007, the Jays are willing to roll the dice on veterans past their prime.  Playing half the season of 2010, he surprised many with the return of his power that escaped him in 2009.  His 37 year old bat seems to have plenty in it as he still hit .300 in 2010 for the 10th time in the last 12 seasons.  Expect a one or two year deal.

22. Orlando Hudson - Padres.  A free agent again, the O-Dog will end up in San Diego because of his positive attitude and veteran status among a very young team.  Hudson is very consistent and the Padres need to improve on their team batting average, something he can help the team with.

23. Derrek Lee - Brewers.  With Prince Fielder very likely to be traded, this trade would give Milwaukee an able bat to replace some of Fielder's production.  Lee can be picked up with a discount as his stock fell after a disappointing 2010.  The Orioles and Diamondbacks have also been mentioned.

24. Lance Berkman - Mariners.  It's no secret the Big Puma's bat has faded significantly.  He could provide a little value, though, as whatever he'll hit is most definitely better than whoever else the Mariners could start.  With Berkman, though, there are lots of teams that have a little interest; no front runners.

25. Andy Pettitte - Yankees.  Right now, he's playing the whole 'I need to be with my family' card but the truth is this guy is a true ballplayer and loves the game.  The Yankees would love to have him because amazingly he keeps returning and pitching well.  If he's not out there on a roster by Opening Day, I will be shocked.

26. Jon Garland - Orioles.  The front office might finally get something right and improve the effort to find talent outside of the organization while they have the opportunity.  Baltimore is a team that holds momentum this offseason with their strong finish under Buck Showalter, and this signing would go a long way towards taming the kids on the staff and transforming them into pitchers.  

27. A.J. Pierzynski - Red Sox.  Pierzynski was the favorite to join the Florida Marlins, but they picked the Red Sox's top option in John Buck.  The Red Sox will take Pierzynski instead, providing great insurance for Jason Varitek.  Pierzynski was quoted as saying the Red Sox, among a few other teams, "would all be good fits."

28. Miguel Olivo - Dodgers.  Whatever happened to Russell Martin, it sounds like the Dodgers have had with him.  Olivo is one of the best offensive catchers in baseball and plays in small, usually losing markets which is why he flies under the radar so much.  What a treat, now he gets to play for a contender.

29. John Buck - Marlins.  Speaking of early birds, the Marlins and Buck beat me to this post and agreed to a three year deal already earlier this week.  Buck was the huge favorite to land the Red Sox job, but instead takes Florida where he's the best catcher they have seen since Ivan Rodriguez.

30. Javier Vazquez - Nationals.  Vazquez would enjoy going back to the National League after another unsuccessful year with the Yankees.  He also expressed interest in the Nationals, so they have to be considered the favorite.  If they could get him, he would become the best pitcher in the history of the Nationals portion of the franchise.

31. Scott Downs - Yankees.  Playing for the Blue Jays, the Yankees have seen Downs a lot.  Thus increasing his chances of becoming one.  The race for Downs will go between the Red Sox and Yankees, but remember which team has seemingly unlimited resources.  Hint, not the Red Sox.

32. J.J. Putz - Dodgers.  After having a mid career crisis with the Mets that included injuries, Putz has gotten his stuff back.  The Dodgers use their bullpen more than almost every team in the league and those cannot go to George Sherrill again, whose 6.69 ERA was surprising and just terrible.  Putz should replace him behind Jonathan Broxton, or replace him in the event of another period of struggle for Broxton.

33. Brian Fuentes - Braves.  Atlanta already has a great bullpen, but they could use a veteran to close games and need a closer after the retirement of Billy Wagner.  Fuentes blows more than a few saves, but thankfully they have the depth to cover the void.

34. Adam LaRoche - Orioles.  Much like Olivo, LaRoche usually is playing on losing and/or small market teams and isn't talked about much.  His value is real, however, and he is drawing interest from Orioles, Brewers, Cubs, Giants, and Diamondbacks just to name a few.

35. Hisanori Takahashi - Phillies.  Another under the radar pitcher, Takahashi could start for the Phillies if they want him to.  The Phillies like his flexibility, but so do the Nationals, Orioles, and Mariners.

36. Pat Burrell - Braves.  The Giants, unlike the Rays, saw that Burrell can still hit.  They also saw he still can't run or field.  The Braves outfield was a weakness last season but the addition of Burrell, along with the move of Martin Prado, could make it better.  The Padres need a slugger though, and so do the Mariners.

37. Joaquin Benoit - Rays.  The Rays are in serious trouble as their top six relievers are free agents.  If the Rays could bring back one of them, however, it probably would be Benoit who was unhittable in 2010.  Interest is not lacking by any means, the Tigers, Red Sox, and Yankees all want him and the Rays will need a great offer to compete with the bigger market teams.

38. Kevin Millwood - Brewers.  The Brewers are constantly on the hunt for pitching and the signing of Randy Wolf last offseason didn't go as well as planned.  Millwood is just the kind of pitcher the Brewers would sign, a veteran whose price tag is cut because of his struggles in Baltimore and a bad contract in Texas.  The Royals, Mariners, Pirates, and Padres are four teams that also want him, but only one is a contender and with all these offers Millwood can probably choose where he wants to go.

39. Kevin Correia - Pirates.  Pittsburgh has no pitching pretty much, and although Correia's 4.57 career ERA hardly makes him a dependable veteran, he's better than nothing.  Correia could be a good #5 starter on a good team, although the odds of a good team spending money in free agency on a #5 starter is unlikely.  The Pirates need anyone to help Paul Maholm in the rotation.

40. Arthur Rhodes - Reds.  As long as he is pitching well, there's no reason for the Reds to deny the 41 year old reliever.  The Reds need the bullpen stacked with guys who can pitch around Aroldis Chapman, their top reliever who threw the fastest pitch in history in 2010.  Many teams could use the lefty, the Phillies being one, but the Reds are the most likely to keep him.