Homestand Analysis: Colorado, San Francisco, Chicago (AL)

Record: 4-4
Final Record: 35-50

Against the Rockies, the Cubs finally got their first series sweep of the season.  Unfortunately, it was a one-game series, as in a makeup game for the rainout back in April.  This means the Cubs have yet to sweep a three-game series, and also haven't even won three in a row.  But play later in the week was encouraging for the Cubs.

Behind two homers each by Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena, the Cubs rolled past the Rockies 7-3.  The four homers would be the first four of 12 homers on the eight-game homestand.  Something was definitely in the water, as even backup Koyie Hill added one to the tally.  The annual weather swing has struck Wrigley, with that summer wind blowing out to the bleachers.

In the Colorado game, starter Matt Garza gave up a deep fly ball to left field by Carlos Gonzalez.  Alfonso Soriano went back to the track at his typical, lackadaisical pace.  Soriano eventually just pulled up and stopped, facing the wall, waiting for the ball to drop.  Garza, standing on the mound and thinking Soriano couldn't see the ball, raised his arms and said, "What are you doing?!"  Sure enough, the ball landed in the bleachers for a home run.  Garza, like most of the rest of the players, was shocked.  This evidence of the bandbox that Wrigley Field becomes in the summer has to come as a big surprise to the newcomers like Garza, who thought this ball would be a routine flyout.

The jetstream helped the Cubs for the rest of the homestand.  Ramirez hit six homers on it, en route to a well-deserved National League Player of the Week award.  But even that couldn't help the Cubs from looking absolutely dreadful in the doubleheader against the Giants on last Tuesday.  The Cubs were blown out by baseball's worst offense, reminiscent of their similar drubbing of the Cubs at Wrigley Field last year.  For the Cubs, Doug Davis and Rodrigo Lopez started the two games and the results are history.

Thankfully, the Cubs salvaged the last two games in impressive fashion.  A 1-0 ninth inning lead was blown by Carlos Marmol, but Ramirez singled home the winning run just a half-inning later on Wednesday night.

On Thursday afternoon, the Cubs put together one of their most complete wins since 2008.  Marcos Mateo pitched five incredible innings of relief after Carlos Zambrano's injury allowed him just one inning.  Ramirez erased a 1-0 deficit on a 95 mph fastball off Giants closer Brian Wilson.  Darwin Barney hit a huge clutch double in the 13th inning to tie the game at two after the Giants took the lead in the top half.  Geovany Soto stepped up and, two pitches later, ended the game with a three-run walk-off homer that was one of the most amazing moments the Cubs have had in the last decade.  The game was intense throughout and the Cubs trailed twice facing a loss, coming back both times.

In their millionth attempt to win a third game in a row, the Cubs were again denied, this time by the White Sox.  The Cubs didn't commit any errors on Friday in the series opener, according to the box score.  A mental error by manager Mike Quade cost the Cubs the lead in a tie game.  Quade has been sharply criticized this season for leaving in starters too long, and although much of this criticism is unfair, there's a case for this game to be examined.  Randy Wells gave up the two-run lead he had in the seventh, increasing his runs allowed total to four.  After Alex Rios reached base, Quade allowed Wells to pitch to Juan Pierre who lined a two-run triple to gave the Sox a lead they wouldn't give back.  Quade's mental error wasn't something major on his part, but I believe it was just the wrong decision.

A blown call at second base on a double play ball prevented the Cubs from tying Saturday's game at one, and the Cubs lost 1-0.  Garza threw a complete game despite losing, a sign I love to see.  Back in the Lou Piniella days, Garza would've been yanked after eight regardless of his low pitch count and the fact that his performance had earned him another inning.  Garza has been the beneficiary of some serious bad luck this season, and his value to the team has been far underrated thus far.

The Cubs finally got a win on Sunday, which salvages all Cubs fans everywhere from having to hear those Sox fans yappin' their yappers about how they swept us in our own park, yadda yadda yadda.  Thank God.  A Starlin Castro RBI triple and Ramirez two-run homer built a small lead, and although Kerry Wood allowed the bases loaded in the 8th, the Cubs escaped, avoiding the sweep.  The Sox now lead the Crosstown Series 12-6 since 2009.

On this homestand, Cubs pitchers really started throwing strikes.  In the case of Wells, Lopez, and Davis, who was released after his latest shellacking, this tactic didn't work so well.  In the case of Garza and Ryan Dempster, this worked very well.  Keeping a lower pitch count should allow the starters to go later in games, which is something the Cubs need.  Garza's performance on Saturday was incredible; but not as incredible as the fact that he lost.    

Crosstown Showdown: Cubs 6, White Sox 3

Three key Cubs step up big in win over streaking Sox

CHC leads 1-0

Last night the Cubs and Sox met for the first of six games this season.  The news coming up to game time and in the 1st inning was all about Carlos Zambrano and his temper tantrum last season at The Cell, which nearly led to him being kicked off the team.  But a different Zambrano emerged, despite another bad first inning.  He gave up three in that first inning before calming down and staying as cool as the other side of the pillow for most of the game.  Through 8 innings, Zambrano allowed only those three runs.

The blow up actually came from the other side as Ozzie Guillen was ejected arguing a fair or foul call on home plate.  These disputes are rare because such an instance was very rare but nonetheless the umpire called Alexei Ramirez out after Geovany Soto tagged him with the ball which the ump thought he had picked up off home plate.  The Sox claimed the ball had rolled off and Soto grabbed it in foul territory.  Guillen, in his frustration, kicked Soto's catcher's mask towards his own dugout, prompting eruptions of laughter and hysteria from the Cubs dugout.  Even Soto, standing near Guillen behind home plate, pointed and laughed along with his teammates.

The three keys to winning the game for the Cubs were Zambrano, Starlin Castro, and Carlos Pena.  Castro knocked in the first three runs with a two-RBI single and a solo homer, and Pena gave the Cubs the lead for good with a big three-run homer to the right field bleachers off a stumbling Gavin Floyd.

Carlos Marmol, who puts the fire in fireman, aka closer, gave up singles to catcher A.J. Pierzynski and center fielder Alex Rios just to give Cubs fans a headache before retiring Mark Teahen and left fielder Juan Pierre.

This win was huge in my opinion.  It proved that the Cubs' improved competitive play against the Yankees wasn't a fluke, and that they can hang around with an American League team.  Also, the current Chicago fad of hating on the Cubs takes a big hit with every win they get over the White Sox.  It's as if the bandwagon shrinks, if even just a little.

Crosstown Classic: Round One

There have been plenty of skeptics the last two years of the relatively dull popularity of the Cubs-Sox series.  However, I believe this series really revitalized it once again.

On Friday, the buzz returned to Wrigley Field as the Sox fans marched in.  They had plenty to cheer about with Alex Rios and AJ Pierzynski both collecting four hits and a homer each.  Carlos Quentin poured on the score with a homer along with a bunch of hits in the late innings, and the Sox rolled 10-2.  The only highlight and scoring for the Cubs came in the second when Alfonso Soriano hit a two run homer, the 300th of his career just two days after Derrek Lee got his in Milwaukee. 

Carlos Silva had reason to be frustrated Saturday.  More problems with Xavier Nady cost the Cubs another win.  Paul Konerko hit an RBI single early on that would have been caught with Tyler Colvin or Kosuke Fukudome in right.  However, Nady pulled up instead of going all out.  There wasn't any scoring until the top of the 8th, when Konerko hit an RBI single to the same spot and once again Nady pulled up.  The Cubs pushed across a run in the 9th, and the tying run was on base at the end of the game.  If Nady had gotten both of those like Fukudome or Colvin would've, the Cubs had a win.  I'm aware that Nady is basically a DH, but I really think that for him to be making over three million dollars to be a fifth outfielder/backup first baseman he needs to be diving at every opportunity.  Guys like him aren't playing all-out ball.

Sunday night was what has made this series a big deal again.  This was the definition of a pitchers duel.  Ted Lilly and Gavin Floyd both threw 6.2 IP of no hit baseball, but Alfonso Soriano doubled ending Floyd's no hitter.  On the next pitch, Chad Tracy brought him home with a single up the middle.  That was all the scoring the Cubs would need, but Ted Lilly lost his no hitter in the top of the 9th in shocking fashion against former Cub Juan Pierre.  Carlos Marmol loaded the bases, but got Carlos Quentin to pop out to end the ballgame.  Ted Lilly pitched by far the best game of his career.  The only thing that consistently bothered me was Jon Miller's constant mentioning of the no hitters in progress.  Joe Morgan even mentioned later that it "used" to be an unwritten rule not to mention it on the air.  They just said that because they realized that fans weren't too happy about what they were doing.

This series is changed.  You can bet this won't be the last time the media reminds you of what happened this weekend, especially with Ted Lilly.  I'm just putting it out there that if the Cubs follow the regular rotation with Lilly, he will get the first start of the second Sox series.  If both the Cubs and Sox are done for the season, which the upcoming two weeks of interleague play could decide, enjoy the next Crosstown Classic series in two weeks as the only playoff atmosphere either team will have in 2010.    

Bold Predictions: Start of Summer

This is my first in the Bold Predictions segment, but I plan to do this occasionally.  I am definitely not going to get all of these right, but they're out there for you to chew on.  Some are kind of surprising, others not as much.

Personal Predictions:
-Ubaldo Jimenez, ERA (0.93) and Wins (11) leader of the NL, continues his dominance to win 20 games and win the Cy Young just like Zach Greinke did in surprising fashion in the AL last year.
-Josh Beckett, now injured and frustrated with a 7.29 ERA in eight starts, returns and becomes slightly effective although he never completely gets his stuff back.    He finishes with an ERA in the mid 4s. 
-Paul Konerko (17 HR) fades after the All-Star Break or possibly sooner, but still finishes with about 30 home runs. 
-Jose Bautista (18 HR) of the Jays does the same.
-Aramis Ramirez (.169 AVG, 22 RBI) who has been arguably the most disappointing hitter in the NL, recovers in the summer and catches fire in July.  He cools off at the end of the year, but finishes around .260 with 25 HR and 75 RBI.
-For the second time in three years, Miguel Cabrera leads the AL in HR and throws in a nice 125 or so RBI.
-Alex Rios (12 HR, 17 SB) continues resurrect his career with his 25-25 talent.

-Stephen Strasburg, the most overhyped big league prospect of all time, finishes 2010 with around 2.50 ERA after hitters make the adjustments to hit that 103 mph fastball.  He throws about 100 innings in the Nationals' rotation.

-Jason Heyward, another guy who had a lot of hype around him, gets 25 HR and 100 RBI.

I hope you're chewing that good.  Because at the All-Star Break, you might just look back and go, "How did he know that???"  Also, I'm introducing a new series call Wrap-Ups.  The two forms of the series are 'Road Trip Wrap-Up' and 'Homestand Wrap-Up'.  These will appear after each road trip and homestand and will go over some stats and review the games, including analysis and discussion.  Then, I'll get you set for the next opponents.  The first issue of 'Road Trip Wrap-Up' will appear after this current trip to Pittsburgh, Houston, and Milwaukee is over this Thursday.  Also, look forward to special coverage of the Crosstown Classic.

Team Predictions:
-The Rangers (30-26, 1st in AL West by .5 games), behind the continued hot hitting of surprising Vladimir Guerrero and regular Josh Hamilton, extend their lead in the division to at least three by the All-Star Break.  The Angels stay in the race, but finish near 85 wins as the Rangers win the division by at least five.
-The Rays (37-20, 1st in AL East by 2 games) lose their division lead to the Yankees although they continue to win all year and the Rays will be right there with them at the Break.
-The Red Sox (33-25, 3rd) stop getting so lucky with guys like Clay Buchholz and see a big gap in the division appear between them and the Yankees and Rays.
-Amazingly, the Blue Jays (33-25) hang in there and take 3rd while the Red Sox fade.
-The Braves (33-24, 1st in NL East by 2 games) keep winning with Troy Glaus' hot bat, putting the pressure on the Phillies.
-The Mets (30-27, 3rd) keep winning as well to pass the Phillies, in 2nd place by the All-Star Break.
-The Phillies (30-25, 2nd), who stop pitching when Roy Halladay isn't on and still can't hit, prove to everyone that they aren't the team 'that we thought they were.'
-I shouldn't do this, but the Cubs (25-31, 3rd in NL Central by 8 games) start winning a bit and pass up the Cardinals on their way down.  The Reds and Cubs battle it out beginning after the All-Star Break.
-For the first time since 2006, the Padres (33-23) and Dodgers (33-24) reunite a geographical rivalry as they fight for the NL West down the stretch.  The Rockies and DBacks hang around .500, but can't muster a big winning streak enough to catch up.

Milwaukee Massacre

For the second time in three years, the Cubs have brought down Miller Park (Wrigley Field North).  I haven't ever seen the Cubs beaten this badly, but still I don't have much sympathy for the Brewers.  They are the team with the big, league-leader type stars and they are always labeled as underrated.  They can hit but they can't pitch, the type that fans like but those teams can become frustrating.  8-1, 5-1, and 12-2 the final scores, the Cubs outscoring them 25-4.  Each game was a blowout and the pitching was unbelievably good.  The Cubs pitching has certainly been a strength and they showed it in Milwaukee.  This was the weekend that they put everything together.  Tyler Colvin and Kosuke Fukudome both had two homers over the weekend, and Derrek Lee and Geovany Soto each added one on Sunday.  Carlos Zambrano allowed a run in his relief appearance, but it didn't matter and he otherwise looked sharp.  I really had a hard time seeing the Cubs rotation being as good as they used to be with Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Harden, and Marquis of 2008, by far the best rotation the Cubs have put out in decades.  With only two of those remaining, I thought the rotation wouldn't be as good, but it has been amazing lately.  Like I said, everything is coming together.  This is the way the Cubs need to win baseball games this season: great pitching, good, patient offense, and efficient defense.  We have an easy part of the schedule coming up, with Washington, Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati over the next two weeks.  I see us coming out in first.

Chicago teams (Cubs, White Sox) went 6-0 over the weekend with different styles of play.  The Sox won on three go-ahead homers in the 8th or 9th, first a walk-off by Andruw Jones, then a walk-off by Alex Rios, then a go-ahead homer in the 8th by Paul Konerko.  Despite their attempts at smallball, I think this will be the same fill-em-up-and-homer-em-in team that they have been for so long.  Konerko has been a nice surprise for them, but they do have plenty of struggles.  Jake Peavy can no longer pitch.  One thing I know for sure, is that Seattle isn't too happy with their bullpen.