Two Chances, Two Chokes

The game-tying runs allowed in the 8th inning
of the first two games of the season
were allowed by a frustrated Kerry Wood.

Is this the new "Cubs Way" of playing baseball?!  Let's hope not.

You've heard about it all winter.  'Sustained success', 'the right way', 'development', and 'building from within' are just a few phrases that have highlighted a winter of change for the Chicago Cubs.  It may all just be empty talk, but the new Cubs brass even put it in writing with their fundamentals manual, The Cubs Way, which is being distributed throughout the Cubs minor league system.  The effort looks to standardize the way in which prospects are being taught the game throughout all levels of the Cubs system to maximize potential of all prospects and maintaining disciplinary consistency.  However, if the young prospects want to see for their own eyes how the game is played correctly, they ought to stay away from Wrigley Field.  If the first two days are any indication, the major league Cubs will struggle to avoid lines of hypocrisy in 2012.  

Hopefully this will not be the case.  Clearly Dale Sveum was more equipped with the leadership and motivation tools to start his full-time managerial career than Mike Quade was a year ago, and these qualities showed in Spring Training.  So far he has gotten the team much more involved in working on simple yet overlooked fundamentals, including baserunning drills which declared exactly which part of the base the Cubs are supposed to hit when rounding them.  He also got some competition going on to get players more involved. 

Casey Coleman and David DeJesus may not win an award of any type during the rest of either of their careers, but the two gained immediate team respect as they faced off in the final round of the 64-participant bunting tournament in camp.  Coleman swept his way through the pitchers' bracket, while DeJesus did the same in the position players' bracket.  DeJesus ended up winning, but the major reward from this exercise was a sense of accomplishment coming from a fundamental the Cubs needed work on.  

"You're already making me look bad out here.
Vamonos ahora."

After all, these are athletes; they appreciate any added competition to spice things up.  Before it all got started, Tony Campana proclaimed himself as a favorite to win the entire tournament.  He was eliminated in the first round.

The added concentration paid off, as the Cubs brought a winning Spring Training record home with them.  However, the results did not show at all in the first two games of the regular season.  

In the home opener Thursday against the Washington Nationals, Ryan Dempster was finishing up a gem of a performance when he was abruptly yanked with one out to get in the 8th and Ian Desmond on first base.  Enter fan favorite Kerry Wood to hold the 1-0 lead.  A host of problems followed.  Desmond stole second.  Wood walked the next batter, Ryan Zimmerman.  A wild pitch moved Desmond to third and Zimmerman to second.  Wood walks another batter, Adam LaRoche.  After a mound visit, Wood loses another batter in Jayson Werth, whose base on balls forced in the tying run.  

Three consecutive walks spelled doom in the form of lost momentum in this ball game.  Dempster had been living dangerously all day by using the homer-unfriendly winds in his favor, but at least he had controlled the base on balls.  Wood lost it.  Not surprisingly, Carlos Marmol didn't make things any better.  After getting two quick outs in a now-tied ball game in 9th, Marmol allowed a double to Chad Tracy and a go-ahead single to Desmond, scoring Tracy's pinch-runner.  The Nationals took the lead for good.

Don't let the hollering fool you.  The Cubs beat
themselves more than the Nationals beat the Cubs.

A day off on Friday gave the team an entire day to stew about blowing the Opening Day not only of 2012, but of the Theo era.  Apparently it got in their heads, because Saturday's game was hardly any better.  The Cubs again held the Nationals down for most of the game until the 8th in a 4-2 game, when Mr. Wood got the first two outs before allowing a solo homer to Danny Espinosa, bringing the deficit down to one.  Then Zimmerman singled, then LaRoche singled, and then Wood was yanked to avoid further damage.  Who was brought in to replace him?  Marmol.  Remember, this is still all with two outs.  Marmol walks Werth, loading the bases.  Finally, Tracy puts the Cubs out of their misery and sucks the life out of the stadium with a two-run go-ahead single.  

These three rallies - two of them when the Nationals were batting with two outs - are pretty much the trademark of the last year's team.  The bullpen was a strength last year, but the hovering frustration of a lack of focus was the most bothersome aspect of last year's team.  Wood immediately took the blame for blowing Opening Day and cited zero excuses, but then it happened again.  We love ya, Kerry, but that's not gonna get 'er done.  Whether it was keeping their eyes on the ball or throwing to the right base, the Cubs lacked in baseball mental fitness last year.  The new management regime made this their primary goal in the offseason, but the early results have disappointed.  Let's hope this doesn't become a trend.

    

Compensated? Not Really

Theo Epstein

The lengthy discussion over compensation for Theo Epstein's move from the Red Sox to the Cubs ended as the two teams agreed that 26-year-old right-hander Chris Carpenter would be enough to 'compensate' the Red Sox.  The Cubs lose their third-round pick in the 2008 draft who made his MLB debut in 2011, pitching in 10 games with a strong 2.79 ERA.

Carpenter has floated around the Cubs' system in recent years, quickly making his way up to AAA Iowa in 2010.  He split 2011 in the minors between AA Tennessee and AAA Iowa and again struggled in Iowa, with an ERA over 6.00 and a ballooning WHIP over 1.8.  He fared well in his major league trial last summer, but it may not have been as good as the ERA would suggest, as he walked seven in those nine and two-thirds innings.  The only national attention he received was serving up a monster home run ball to Yankees right fielder Nick Swisher in a nationally televised Sunday night game on ESPN.

Despite his struggles, this man has tremendous potential.  Not necessarily the same potential that his St. Louis counterpart, also a starter in Chris Carpenter, had, but still this younger version has promising talent.  Most notably there's the 100 mph fastball which has blown away more than a few hitters in his career.  Following that is his average slider, which he throws about one-fourth of the time.

Chris Carpenter

He prefers to work inside and definitely doesn't use the outside part of the plate enough to neither righties nor lefties, but there is a bigger problem in his repertoire.  He needs another pitch.  Carpenter switched to being a reliever this season in the minors and majors but before had been a starter for nearly his entire career.  This season his play suffered out of the bullpen, and his fastball and slider are basically his only two legitimate pitches.  It's awfully hard to keep major league hitters off-balance when you throw a fastball 75% of the time, no matter how fast it is.  If he develops a quality changeup, he'll thrive in either role.

As you've heard here, this dude has potential with the fastball.  A hittable slider and lack of a tertiary pitch have hurt him thus far, however.  That and the tendency of hard-throwers to have shoulder injuries, this makes him a definite high-risk, high-reward type.  Does this sound like fair compensation for executive Theo Epstein?  I do not know.  This compensation process just seems foolish.  Boston's GM swaps teams, and Boston gets to choose one highly-touted Chicago prospect?  Does this make this entire transaction a 'trade'?  If so, we just traded a jersey for a suit.

I don't think executives and players can be measured in team value along the same parameters in which they could be 'traded' for each other.  If Epstein left the Red Sox for the Cubs while under contract, which may have been the case, then the Cubs should have given up a draft pick.  Giving up one volatile prospect is not fair compensation for either side really.  Carpenter isn't a huge loss, but that fact that we lost him is wrong.

Cubs Sign Paul Maholm

Paul Maholm, the Cubs' newest starting pitcher

The last four weeks or so must be the most eventful offseason month for the Cubs in a long time.  Theo and Jed's Rizzo-for-Cashner trade immediately gathered critical acclaim, but they weren't done yet.  They still aren't.

Paul Maholm, 29, is a seven-year major league veteran who has spent all of his seasons in Pittsburgh.  He joined the rotation for good in 2006 and has started in all 185 major league appearances.  He was the 8th overall pick in the 2003 draft, so his success was foreseen by many scouts.  He holds a misleading 53-73 career record with a 4.36 ERA and career K/9 innings and BB/9 innings rates of 5.5 and 3.0, respectively.  He doesn't have the typical skill set of an early first-round starter but has been a very reliable innings eater for the Pirates for the last half-decade.  His performance hasn't really given him the 'ace' moniker, but his surrounding staff has.

Maholm is a groundball pitcher; he will rely on his infield defense a whole lot.   Although he'll soon be on the wrong side of 30 and doesn't have any overpowering pitches, this is a terrific signing for the Cubs.  He gives the Cubs a reliable veteran option to contrast the inconsistent tendencies of rotation-mates Randy Wells and Travis Wood, just to name two.  MLBTradeRumors.com ranked Maholm as the ninth-best starting pitcher available in the free agent market.

For fans still skeptical about the results of all these recent moves, I have some good news.  If you think about it, this move makes a Matt Garza trade much more likely.  Garza is a star at this moment and the Cubs front office is working for a deal.  Ironically as soon as I realized that this makes a Garza trade more likely, Jed Hoyer told the media that it isn't a "precursor" to any other deal, implying a Garza trade.  I don't believe that.  When has a GM ever announced that a move they just made was a precursor to another deal - before the second deal has been agreed on?  Hoyer can't say that a Garza trade will follow because then if the deal falls through, the front office will look bad and expectant fans will be disappointed.  A politically correct move by Hoyer and a statement needed to be made, but I don't believe it to be true.

Cubs fans shouldn't expect the world from Maholm.  He'll finish with a record near .500 and an ERA anywhere between 3.50 and 5.00 most likely.  He'll earn his value, however, in inducing ground balls and being a model big league regular for others to learn from.  Although his year-to-year results are inconsistent, he's coming off the second-best season in his career and is a known commodity in the big leagues, which is more than we can say for any of our mediocre options in Iowa at starting pitcher.  Good move.

Theo-cracy 2.0

Tom Ricketts introduced Theo Epstein, new President
of Baseball Operations, to the media last week.

Hopefully, a new era has arrived with the introduction of Theo Epstein as President of Baseball Operations, Jed Hoyer as General Manager, and Jason McLeod in some role in player development.  Epstein was formally introduced at a press conference on October 25 while Hoyer and McLeod will get theirs tomorrow.  I hope this means new philosophy with a solid gameplan in the Cubs front office, because for the last two years really, it seemed as if there was an argument going on between staff in favor of rebuilding and staff in favor of trying to win now, and the roster moves the Cubs made were a mix of both.  For example, trading Derrek Lee in August 2010 favored rebuilding, while trading some of the organization's top prospects for Matt Garza favored winning now.  The inconsistencies start at ownership.

I remember this part well; when Tom Ricketts was taking criticism for having a business man in Crane Kenney as President instead of a 'baseball guy' (as in a man with a scouting background who actively is overseeing player development and other staff in the organization), Ricketts replied that he doesn't need a 'baseball guy' to watch his other 'baseball guy' (talking about GM Jim Hendry).  However, Ricketts said in the Epstein press conference that Epstein had been a target to be the architect of the organization from the day Hendry stepped down.  Apparently a 'baseball guy' comes in handy, as one should.  The role of President of a baseball franchise is not to sell hot dogs and suite packages to corporations, it's to oversee all the player personnel and development staff, including the entire front office and all the players.  Kenney hardly did the second part at all.

Ronnie Woo-Woo approves.

The public's reaction to Epstein here in Chicago has honestly been stunning.  I don't really think that's a good thing, though.  If this is a true theo-cracy, then there Theo must be the deity at the center of it all.  So far, everyone in Chicago has tabbed Epstein as the savior of the Cubs organization, and surely there's no way the Cubs won't win a World Series now.  See how far that kind of thinking has gotten us?  Come on guys.

Theo-cracy 1.0, the Red Sox version, was revolutionary because it found value (or lack thereof) in players for specific traits or abilities, so as to maximize the baseball capabilities of the 25-man roster, just like Billy Beane did in Oakland.  However, Theo-cracy 1.0 was performed on a much bigger stage; Red Sox Nation, desperate for a World Series title for the first time in a Cub-like number of years.

Theo was not without seemingly random occurrences of luck.  How could he have predicted that a slow, bad-fielding first baseman-turned-DH from Minnesota, whose career high in homers was 20 in 2002, would turn into the AL home run king with 54 just four years later?  Also, it wasn't like he was taking over a bad team.  The Red Sox had put together playoff teams in 1995, 1998, 1999, and won 93 games in 2002.  He inherited Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Trot Nixon, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Lowe, and Pedro Martinez, six established stars on a good team.  On the Cubs, however, there is nowhere near as much star power.

In other news, the wall advertising behind Epstein during
his press conferences will no longer be the Red Sox'
signature visually-appealing Dunkin Donuts logo.

The only stars the Cubs have right now are Starlin Castro and Matt Garza.  After that, questions arise everywhere, whether it be inconsistency from Geovany Soto or Ryan Dempster or who will even start at the corners of the infield next season.  This is exactly why Theo is no savior; this is by far a harder challenge than his first in Boston.

Hoyer and McLeod, on the other hand, were just minions of Epstein back in the day.  The two took what they learned to San Diego, where Hoyer became GM in 2010 and McLeod joined the front office.  Together, they helped revamp the Padres' scouting and development system.  Partially as a result, Baseball America ranked the Padres' organizational talent eighth in MLB.  Now Hoyer and McLeod are reunited with their mentor, and I think the result will be one of the most unique decision-making forces around.

While the roles of GM and President of Baseball Operations are not interchangeable, they have their similarities.  While GM used to be the only job that seemed to matter to construct a ballclub, things appear to be changing.  When the media asked former Phillies and Blue Jays GM Pat Gillick about the Cubs' vacancy, he replied that he longer wanted to be a GM, but rather a President of Baseball Operations.

An action shot of Theo starring the ivy
in a rarely-seen autumn color scheme.

A President of Baseball Operations does exactly what it sounds like; he is the top authority in charge of everything in the Cubs organization relating to the actual team put out on the field, which means he has power over the GM and anyone else in the front office.  It appears to be a most desirable position these days.  Epstein saw the benefits and abandoned ship with the Red Sox to get it with the Cubs.  So even though Hoyer will be making the day-to-day moves like roster call-ups or arbitration negotiations, Epstein will be the key architect of the team, the big-picture guy.  McLeod, scouting director Tim Wilken and VP of Player Personnel Oneri Fleita will be shuffling minor leaguers and crunching numbers to help build the future.  I therefore think it's kind of ironic that everyone is calling Epstein the savior while the Cubs front office will be more of a team effort than it ever has been.

Even though Epstein can't play third or first base, outfield, or a #5 starting pitcher (or a #4 or #3, for that matter), his presence on the team will be felt in the next few years.  He's no savior, but he and his delegation of executives will get the team to start playing better baseball one way or another.  Realistically, 2012 probably isn't the year, but I have high hopes for 2013.  As does Epstein.

Opening Day TV Schedule?

There are sort of two Opening Days in 2011, with 10 teams opening on Thursday, March 31 and 20 teams opening on Friday, April 1.  In the past ESPN has carried the Sunday night season opening game, last year it being the Yankees-Red Sox as the only game that day.  On Monday ESPN and ESPN2 combined to show five Opening Day games, as is tradition.  For the new schedule layout that begins on a Thursday, however, the new TV alignment has yet to be arranged.  So I guess I have nothing to go off of besides last year's format, but I'm changing the alignment tentatively with two games on the first day, three on the second.  This post is to show the best games of the two Opening Days, and say which should be on ESPN.  The 2011 schedule is here and I choose two games from the Thursday games and three from the Friday games.



Thursday games:


Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
ESPN likes to show the home opener in Cincinnati, an event that has occurred in Cincinnati every year since 1901 except 1966.  The tradition behind it is huge for Reds fans, and Great American Ball Park hosted its first playoff game last season.  The Brewers, on the other hand, are a team that probably won't contend in 2011 for the same reason as 2010, the fact that they really don't have any pitching.  The small dimensions at Great American with the power hitters from both teams should make for an interesting game.

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
This game just barely beat out San Diego at St. Louis, but that game would have resulted in lower ratings.  The Tigers are going to spend this offseason and could end up with someone like Victor Martinez or Carl Crawford.  As the Tigers should be a better team in 2011, the Yankees will be good like always and looking to redeem themselves after the failure that was 2010 where they lost in the ALCS (of course, only to they Yankees was that failure).


Friday games:


Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays may be the most exciting offensive team in the country, leading baseball in homers in 2010 and fielding a lineup stacked with stars.  The pitching is mediocre and without an ace, but the Jays always hang around and win 85 or so games.  This will be an interesting game against Minnesota, the team that plays the game so well with a tremendous organization but has failed awfully in the playoffs this decade (no wonder they haven't received the criticism they deserve).  Interesting matchup.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
The opener for the World Champion Giants would be interesting enough, but adding it to Dodger Stadium against the hated rival Los Angeles, now this is a great game.  The Dodgers can still contend in 2011 after NLCS appearances in 2008 and 2009.  The Giants will likely lose a few players to free agency, so this will be a good first test.

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
This matchup makes fans mouths water.  After an amazing series last season in Texas, including a walk-off homer from Nelson Cruz in the 13th in a 9-9 game, these two teams showed that the power on power down south is something to behold.  Red Sox GM Theo Epstein will reshape his team to get back to the playoffs, so they will be improved.  The franchise popularity of the Rangers was at an all time high when they got to the World Series, and even though they lost, the Rangers will be a great team next year and for a while.