Fit For a Prince, Or Was Yu da Man?

Prince Fielder would a better player to
build around than Yu Darvish.

Cubs pursuing first baseman Prince Fielder and pursued starter Yu Darvish; which move would have made more sense?


Two of the top free agents remaining in the winter free agent pool were being actively pursued by the Cubs, at least until one of them fell off the board officially earlier today.  Darvish, 25, is a right-handed starter who was the ace of the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan since 2007 (his first full season), going 93-38 over seven total seasons.  Fielder, 27, is the big man from Milwaukee already known for his 230 career homers and supposed weight of 275 pounds (does anyone believe that?).  The Cubs have, through outside reports or press releases, made aggressive strides towards acquiring both.  It appeared before and still does now that getting both was not within the real of possibility for Theo & Co, which leaves the main question; which one actually helps the Cubs more in the short-term and long-term?

Although a great pitcher, no one knows how
well Yu Darvish will adjust to MLB hitters.

If you think the answer is Darvish, unfortunately we'll never find out how accurate that estimation is.  The Texas Rangers (UPDATED) won the exclusive bidding rights for Darvish and now will be the only team with a chance to sign him.  This doesn't mean he is now a Ranger, but it does mean that if Darvish is playing in MLB next season, it can now only be with Texas.  If the Rangers don't work out a deal with him, which is highly unlikely, I think he returns to Japan.  Now it's up to Rangers GM Jon Daniels and the rest of the Texas staff to work out a contract with him.  The Cubs, Yankees, and Blue Jays also placed bids for negotiating rights, but the Rangers appear to be the highest bider.

The negotiating rights process Darvish is going through is very similar to that of Daisuke Matsuzaka when the Red Sox won the negotiating rights for him in the 2006/07 offseason.  Matsuzaka, who was also pursued by the Yankees, signed with the Red Sox after they won negotiating rights, the two deals (negotiating rights and contract) coming at a combined price tag of over $100 million.  Dice-K has been a major disappointment for Boston and has caused plenty of second-guessing in the Darvish sweepstakes.

Matsuzaka was 26 when he signed, and he was hailed as the future ace of the Red Sox, an international star who would only dominate even more with the move to the United States.  How could American hitters possibly solve a pitcher with eight different pitches, analysts pondered.  Apparently they have, and five years into his Red Sox career he has given them just 49 wins on a stunningly mediocre 4.25 ERA.  He has missed significant time to injury each of the last three seasons.

Although Darvish's mechanics and pure 'stuff' would suggest otherwise, he could perform similarly.  At the time of his signing, Darvish was coming off five straight seasons with an ERA under 2.00 in Japan.  At the time of his, Matsuzaka was coming off four straight seasons with an ERA under 3.00.  One would hope Darvish will have more success, and his blistering fastball, drop-dead 12-6 curveball and physics-defying slider would suggest so.  But the possibility lingers that Darvish, like Matsuzaka, will struggle to adapt to American hitters who are more patient and skilled than ones he has faced before, especially in the power department.

Fielder brings a very different type of energy to the team.  Fielder is a known commodity in MLB and especially to Cubs fans who have been watching him grow over the past half-decade.  Since a breakout 50-homer season in 2007, he has been all over the league launching bombs with great regularity and positive swagger.  During the Winter Meetings a friend of his leaked that Fielder is most interested in playing for the Cubs than any of the other suitors, which include the Mariners, Nationals, and possibly Texas.  Then why, you ask, is a deal takin' so dang long?!  First of all, he's a Scott Boras client.  Boras has no problem running out the clock on teams to earn his clients each and every penny that they're "due".  Secondly, the Cubs have been non-committal about Fielder to the media so their interest level throughout the process has probably varied.  The Cubs are now in the mix, but a deal with Boras isn't going to be struck overnight.  We certainly won't see anything like the Albert Pujols-to-Anaheim deal, which saw the Angels make initial contact with Pujols just 36 hours before signing one of the most pivotal contracts in baseball history.

If trying to browse through media to gauge the Cubs' level of interest on Fielder, you're probably getting a lot of crossing signals.  Yes, it's very confusing at this point.  Many things I've heard say the Cubs are involved and in pursuit with intent to sign, while others, like manager Dale Sveum, have come out and said the Cubs are not involved at all.  In my opinion, Sveum is either surprisingly unaware of what his front office is up to or trying to do a cover-up job, and a bad one at that.  He said the Cubs organization has had no contact at all with Fielder, which is definitely untrue.

Whichever way you put it though, the Cubs have had serious interest in both.  In my opinion, the Cubs would be better off with Fielder instead of Darvish.  The fair criticism of Darvish in comparison to Matsuzaka and other recent Japanese pitchers who have fizzled is evidence enough that although he looks impressive now, the transition to MLB hitters is very tough.  This means dishing out big bucks to Darvish is a very volatile move, and if he can't get it together, the Cubs are stuck with another big contract that they don't want.

Even though Fielder also presents the obvious risk of an big contract and is no man invincible to natural decline with age, the level of risk is significantly lower.  If the Cubs had won Darvish, his new team would be thousands of miles away and his new competition would be far better.  If Fielder could track down one of those long-distance suburban taxi companies between Chicago and Milwaukee, he could probably take a cab from Miller Park to his new home at Wrigley.  He would be in the same division and same league, so for him the focus would basically be to continue what he has already been doing his whole career.

Also, what statement does the signing make?  If the Cubs were actually in full rebuilding mode, they would not even be considering these two top free agents.  Because the Cubs are the Cubs, however, and wreak the benefits of being a large-market team and are really the most famous franchise in the National League, they can afford to sign a superstar to build around, which can either accelerate the rebuilding process or send it backwards a few steps.  I think Fielder would be a great character to build around and bring stability to a position that demands it especially after the loss of Aramis Ramirez to those Brewers.

Darvish would have far too many immediate obstacles to become a team leader to build around.  The language barrier is a major obstacle, and a bust deal would reverse the depth issue because the Cubs would have to pay double-digit millions per year for a bad starter eating a rotation spot, similar to Matsuzaka's recent role with the Red Sox.  Although rotation depth is a major problem for the Cubs right now, this was not the right opportunity to fix it.  Thankfully the Cubs have taken a good step in finding rotation depth as they are now talking to Paul Maholm about a contract.  Other targets I would explore are Edwin Jackson, Javier Vazquez, Jon Garland, and Roy Oswalt.

So finally, Prince Fielder is the guy to build around if there is one between these two.  The Rangers winning Darvish rights may not be a bad thing; it prevents possibility of the Cubs making a deal far too volatile for their current losing situation.          

Hot Stove Buzz #2

It's been a very busy week of transactions, and here on Day 3 of the Winter Meetings we find ourselves with a whole bunch of players in new uniforms.

-The Padres have acquired Jason Bartlett in a trade with Tampa Bay for two relievers.  After losing Miguel Tejada to San Francisco, the Padres have their starting shortstop.  Bartlett had a very down year in 2010, surprisingly only hitting .254.
-The Cubs want Matt Garza, and are one of four teams going after him.  The Rays, on their end of the trade, want prospects according to Tim Dierkes of mlbtraderumors.com.  I think that these prospects are definitely going to be pitchers, preferably relievers.  Unfortunately, the Rays are unloading a lot of their guys and it kind of looks like rebuilding all over again.  They had a nice three year run in winning with a star-studded team, but their small market limitations have caught up to them.
-The Orioles acquired Mark Reynolds in a trade with the Diamondbacks.  Interestingly, the Orioles have been very active on the hot stove this offseason, something we don't usually see from them.  They are now also looking into acquiring Kevin Gregg and J.J. Hardy or Brendan Ryan.  Sounds like Buck Showalter brought that winning stuff to the air in Baltimore and the front office is finally picking up the slack and getting some deals moving.  This should be a memo to other perennially bad teams that don't have front offices willing to go after who they need.
-Who knows what is going to happen with Cliff Lee?  Lee's agent just left the hotel in Florida where the baseball Winter Meetings are, and this is annoying to general managers.  Specifically, the Yankees and Rangers' respective GMs would like to know if they are going to be dishing out $100+ million or not.  No biggie, though.
-The Nationals signed Jayson Werth to a 7 year deal worth $126 million.  Many in the baseball community consider the 8 year, $136 million deal from the Cubs with Alfonso Soriano to be one of the worst contracts of the 2000s considering Soriano, coming off a 40 homer-40 steal season, has never hit more than 33 homers or stolen more than 19 bases with the Cubs.  But let me make an argument to call this one a bad contract, right off the bat (no pun intended.  With Jayson Werth, we are looking at a guy that is 32, has 120 career homers, has 87 homers and 251 RBI in the last three years, but only had 33 homers and 155 RBI in his career before that.  Werth averaged 29 homers and nearly 18 steals from 2008-2010, so far the highlight years of his career.  Alfonso Soriano, on the other hand, had averaged more than 37 homers a season from 2002-2006, the five years before the signing, and had averaged more than 34 steals a season from 2001-2006, the six seasons before the signing.  Soriano was 30 when he was signed, two years younger than Werth.  In his four seasons on the Cubs, Soriano has averaged only 26 homers and 13 steals per season.  He's hitting for a low average now, has virtually no speed, is a minus defensively, and has a bat that can only be counted on for 20 homers a season.  With four years still remaining on Soriano's contract, he has gone from being a 40-40 player to a 20-5 player.  If Werth is 32, has only proven himself for three seasons, and had less talent to begin with, how long will it be before the Nationals realize they made a big mistake?  Werth was a late bloomer, so he probably has three more elite seasons.  But after that, who knows.  These elite contracts with huge salaries towards the end snuff out trade talks extremely fast, as the Cubs could tell you.
-Adam Dunn decided to come to Chicago, but to the wrong side.  The Sox signed Dunn for four years, $56 million.  This is a great signing because it fits the White Sox.  With a great hitters park in US Cellular Field, Dunn could hit upwards of 45 homers in 2011 and beyond.  The Tigers were the main competitor to get Dunn, but they were less aggressive after their signing of Victor Martinez because Martinez can play first base.  The Nationals weren't too happy about the signing, so they are forced to look for other options.  Sox GM Ken Williams tried to get Dunn at the trade deadline but a potential deal never materialized, so he was stuck with Manny Ramirez.  The Sox may deal some of their main guys like Carlos Quentin so it's good that whatever happens the Sox have a definite guy to bat cleanup everyday.
-Paul Konerko, also of the White Sox, signed a new deal with the Sox for three years and $37.5 million.  On MLB Network today, A.J. Pierzynski said that he knows for a fact that Konerko took a discount for coming back to his 'hometown'.  Now with Adam Dunn, these two make a great combo in the middle of the lineup that can be counted on for 75 homers.  Now that there is some big pop.

-Finally, Derek Jeter signed with the Yankees.  Of course, the Yankees overpaid with $51 million for three years, but Jeter still wasn't happy about it.  “To hear the organization tell me to go shop it when I just told you I wasn’t going to — if I’m going to be honest with you, I was angry about it,” said Jeter.  He can't complain about the money, though.  For a guy that in 2010 batted .270, his worst since his rookie season in 1995, hit only 10 homers, and stole only 18 bases, more than $15 million a year is out of the question.  The majority of that money is from respect for the Yankees all-time hits leader.  Personally, I think he should shut up and take the money.  I have no sympathy for a guy fighting over millions that don't even matter and are just a sign of respect.  If he's so generous and as great a guy as the media makes him sound, he wouldn't care about the money at this point.  But if anyone is dumb enough to give him that money, he should take it.
-Mariano Rivera signed for two years and $30 million with the Yankees.  And the reason you didn't hear nearly as much about it is because Rivera had the dignity to agree to a reasonable contract.  He didn't disrespect himself and the Yankees by making things difficult when there really were no other competitors in landing him.
-Aubrey Huff resigned with the Giants, being one of the key role players in the World Series run.  He only got a modest $22 million over two years, and although he is 33, he may have been able to get more money elsewhere.  Luckily for San Francisco, he signed before he could take any real time to examine other offers. 
-I'm going to go ahead and call a contract a bust.  Jorge de la Rosa, owner of a career 5.02 ERA, earned a two year, $21.5 million contract to stay with the Rockies.  De la Rosa only has a career K/BB ratio of 1.75, and I see another Oliver Perez contract in the making.  I'm sure De la Rosa is a great guy and all, but he's got to work on his control before I'm sold on a big contract for him, or even sold on him being anything more than a perennial #5 starter.
-This is very old news, but it needs to be stated.  Victor Martinez signed with the Tigers for $50 million and four years, a good signing because now you could see him at first base, catcher, or even DH.

-A.J. Pierzynski resigned with the White Sox for two years and $8 million.  He very nearly went to the Dodgers, but the deal fell through and he ends up with the Sox.

-Lance Berkman signed with the Cardinals for just one year and $8 million.  But with Albert Pujols at first base, where will he play, you wonder.  That's right, the Cardinals signed Lance Berkman at age 34 to do something he hasn't since 2007: play the outfield.  Try not to laugh.  There are going to be some 'Puma Moments in that outfield.

-Javier Vazquez got a year for $7 million from the Marlins.  The reason he only took only year is because he needs to rebuild his stock, something he can do in 2011 with his return to the NL.  His stock dropped significantly after a bad 2010 with the Yankees, and he wants to have a year this year similar to his 2009 with the Braves and then get a big multi-year contract to probably finish out his career.

         

Cubs Hot Stove Buzz

The Cubs have plenty of needs on their wishlist for this offseason.  One of the biggest is the left handed first baseman, preferably with power.  Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano said earlier in the season that the Cubs should focus on pitching needs this offseason and that they can handle the offense, but they haven't proved that at all over the last two seasons.  In 2009, Derrek Lee led the offense by far.  In 2010, the offense sucked for the most part.  In the first baseman market for the Cubs so far is, above all, Adam Dunn, then Victor Martinez or Aubrey Huff, then Lance Berkman.  I really do see Dunn coming to Chicago the only question is if the Cubs are willing to pay that much for a guy probably looking for $10 million.

Before the Cubs can get too excited about spending money, they need to trade Kosuke Fukudome.  Fukudome is owed $13.5 million in 2011, so it will be tough considering Fukudome's awful value relative to salary.  Jim Hendry has a lot of critics, but everyone can agree that the one thing he has done best is dump bad contracts (see: Milton Bradley).  He only has one year left on his contract and has been a huge bust offensively but great defensively.  He will never sniff that kind of money for the rest of his baseball career.  On the pitching side, the Cubs are interested in Jon Garland who expressed interest in the Cubs last offseason.  Other mid-level starters are what the Cubs are looking for, and could find that in a guy like Carl Pavano or Javier Vazquez.  Cliff Lee is out of the Cubs price range.  Kerry Wood, who would like to return to Chicago, will have to take a pay cut if he is to do so because there is no way the Cubs will pay him $10 million that he was making last year.  I don't see the Cubs wanting to pay him more than $2 million.  The hunt for a veteran middle reliever continues.