Big Z's Cubs Future

Carlos Zambrano in Atlanta, right after he was thrown out
for throwing at Braves 3B Chipper Jones.

Whether or not he pitches for the Cubs again isn't the real question


The latest blowup by Carlos Zambrano came a year after he took anger management classes as a result of his blowup before that.  Locating his pitches effectively when he returned, Zambrano went 8-0 to finish the season, which had Cubs fans thinking the man had finally reinvented himself.  Instead, he's been inconsistent and generally mediocre all season long, including a dismal strikeout rate.  He now finds himself on the 30-day disqualified list with no pay (not that he needs any) and his future with the Cubs is in jeopardy.  But the real question is, how will he be remembered by the fan base that made him what he is now?

Zambrano vs. Michael Barrett, 2007.

Zambrano's history of emotional temper tantrums goes way back.  His most notable incidents include numerous outbursts in 2006, his dugout brawl with catcher Michael Barrett at Wrigley in 2007, his 2008 attack on the Gatorade cooler at Dodger Stadium after giving up a three-run homer to Matt Kemp, his 2009 performance at Wrigley against Pittsburgh where, after being thrown out, he threw out an umpire then fired a ball from home plate to deep left field, his dugout yelling match with first baseman Derrek Lee over Lee not diving for a ball in 2010 at The Cell, and finally throwing at Chipper Jones twice in the same at-bat after giving up back-to-back homers and five homers in the game.

Zambrano vs. Derrek Lee, 2010.

Throughout all of this, Big Z has actually been a great pitcher over his 11 year career, all with the Cubs.  A homegrown prospect out of Venezuela, he asserted himself into the rotation as a 22-year-old on the 2003 team with a 3.11 ERA.  Eventually he became the ace for most of the mid-2000s despite his emotional problems.  His career record today stands at 125-81 with a 3.60 ERA.  Excellent for a homegrown prospect, no?  But of course, Cubs fans don't think of him in this way.  Instead, we wonder what could have been if he was able to control his problems at a young age.  Could Zambrano have won 20 games and/or a Cy Young?  Most definitely.

The daily warmup ritual with 5'7" Mike Fontenot.

If Zambrano pitches for the Cubs again, I think the fan base would get over this incident to some degree, just like they have all the incidents past.  However Tom Ricketts said on the ESPN broadcast on Sunday night that he has "a hard time seeing that happening," and with good reason.  If Zambrano never pitches in a Cubs uniform again, he will be remembered in a foggy cloud of potential and frustration.  I hope it's the first option.

Once he clears the 30-day disqualified list, I hope the Cubs let him back into the rotation for probably three or four starts, which is all that will be left in the season.  The ending in Atlanta is too abrupt for a veteran like Z, and I think it would be good for the fans and team to let him have one last (peaceful) goodbye before the team moves on.  This offseason, the new GM will probably come in with a no-tolerance-for-misbehavior attitude, and show it off by dumping Zambrano.  Whether this means releasing him or miraculously finding a taker in the trade market, the end will probably come at the end of this season for the big guy.

While I understand the anger fellow Cubbie fans have felt at Zambrano for all of these years of inconsistencies and questionable decisions, I know I'll be one who misses him for many reasons.  The awkward kill-the-ball swing that got him 23 career homers.  Zambrano pinch-hitting at Wrigley to a standing ovation out of entertainment and laughter.  The pointing to the sky coming off the mound which never seemed to help his anger issues.  Firing fastballs past the game's best hitters pack in the old days.  Breaking bats over his knee.  The bunt singles.  The traditional whack-a-mole warmup routine with Mike Fontenot.  The obscure, Red Bull-influenced injuries.  His insistence on wearing the blue alternate jerseys.  Even watching his BP sessions.  The overall energy and character that made the Big Z truly earn himself a place in Cubs history, for bad or (usually) good reasons.  And of course, the no-hitter against the hurricane-relocated Astros in Milwaukee.  Even if they drove us crazy mad, thanks for the good (and bad) times, Carlos.

A great teammate for the most part, smiles and jokes
were always in abundance during a day at the office for Z. 

  

Road Trip Wrapup: Arizona, Los Angeles (NL)

Record: 4-3
Final Record: 39-50
Games Behind First: 9.5 GB

Aramis Ramirez got on his first hot streak of the year as the Cubs finished the trip with a winning record.  A sweep of Arizona meant the Cubs only needed one win in LA to make this a winning trip and they got that one win but none more, losing three of four to the Dodgers.  The offense woke up in the series, and the Cubs will be winning more ball games if they can swing the bat like they have recently.

The Arizona series had a different feel to it than most of the series this season.  It felt like the Cubs were in control and they usually had the lead.  Kosuke Fukudome hit a leadoff homer in the 1st, Starlin Castro hit a two-run triple in the 2nd, and Geovany Soto hit an RBI double in the 2nd to put the DBacks down 4-0 early.  Arizona made it a tight game at 4-2 and 5-3 but another Soto RBI double and a Mike Fontenot RBI single extended their lead.  The blow that put the game out of reach in the 9th was Alfonso Soriano's two-run homer.  Tom Gorzelanny was efficient enough for a win.  Diamondbacks pitcher Barry Enright made his Chase Field debut starting on Tuesday and began well but faded as the game progressed.  With a 1-0 lead in the 6th, he gave up homers to Fukudome (solo) and Ramirez (two-run).  A Kelly Johnson homer made it 3-2, but an RBI from Ryan Theriot and another two-run homer by Ramirez made it 6-2.  Sean Marshall gave up two to make it interesting but Carlos Marmol shut the door closing it out, striking out all five he faced.  Carlos Silva gave up two runs over six innings and earned the win.  In a 3-3 game Wednesday night, Starlin Castro hit a two-run single to take the lead in the 5th.  Another home run from Ramirez, this time a three-run jack, gave the Cubs a 8-3 lead in the 9th and they never looked back.  Ryan Dempster went five and struck out six to earn the win, beating Edwin Jackson who had also knocked in an RBI in this game.

The first game at Dodger Stadium Thursday night was reminiscent of games earlier in the season.  James Loney hit an RBI single in the first but Soriano homered in the second to tie it at one.  Geovany Soto hit an RBI single and that was all the Cubs could do as Randy Wells was left in the game late once again with a tiny lead.  The time bomb went off when All-Star Rafael Furcal mashed a two-run homer down the line in right to completely shift momentum and the lead just like that.  Jonathan Broxton picked up the save.  Ted Lilly didn't pitch well at all Friday and the Dodgers jumped on him early.  After getting a 1-0 lead he gave up a three-run homer to Russell Martin, his first homer in nearly two months.  He gave up RBIs to Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Casey Blake, and Andre Ethier again.  What seemed like a blowout at 7-2 wasn't as the Cubs came crawling back from a wild pitch, a sac fly, an RBI triple from Ramirez, and an RBI single by the All-Star Marlon Byrd.  The Cubs couldn't finish though and lost 9-7. On national TV Saturday, the Cubs put on a show.  Soto gulfed a two-run homer in the 2nd and the Cubs put on the offense.  Aramis Ramirez hit another homer, his fourth of the trip, in the 7th.  John Ely was rocked for six runs over only two and a third innings, his fourth straight bad appearance at Dodger Stadium.  Tom Gorzelanny got the win as the Cubs took it 7-3.  In the series finale Sunday night on the ESPN, the Cubs were shut out in their last game before the break.  Vicente Padilla was on his game and threw eight shutout innings, including not allowing a hit until the 6th when Starlin Castro lined a leadoff double.  Ryan Theriot did the same in the next inning but didn't score.  The Dodgers jumped on Carlos Silva early, who was using too many breaking balls in this game and needed to get back to his hard sinker.  James Loney got a three-run homer in the first off him and the Dodgers got three more in the second.  Silva was ejected after Loney was called safe on a play at first base, and by the replay he was clearly out.  It was Silva's own fault because he didn't cover first base and Xavier Nady had to race to the bag to get the out.  It was the second close play already at first base and although the first one wasn't an out Silva was enraged and yelled in frustration.  He was tossed but was going to be taken out anyway by Lou Piniella.

The ESPN crew asked Piniella during a commercial break, a traditional questioning with the manager that takes place on Sunday Night Baseball, what the Cubs need to do to get back in the Central race.  "If we swing the bats, we're gonna be okay."  That was the line that stood out to me, and the way the Cubs swung those bats in this past week was certainly reason for excitement.  If they can do it like that consistently we will have no problem coming back to .500 like the Sox did.  With a big ten-game homestand coming up after the All-Star Break, the Cubs will need to score runs to beat the Phillies and Cardinals for sure and to avoid embarrassing losses to Houston.  They will also need to improve in one-run games where they are just 11-20.  I was really proud of the Cubbies during the Arizona series who showed some real fight.  I was impressed by their command of the game and I sense we will see more of this in the second half.  If there was ever a team to take out your frustrations on, make it Philly, easily my least favorite team in baseball.  Easily.  But now, Marlon Byrd heads to Anaheim for the All-Star Game and everyone else goes home.  According to a promo, the All-Star Game will be played on the beach right by Santa Monica Pier.  It won't really, but wouldn't that be interesting?  A sand diamond with the ocean the outfield 'wall'.  Ideas for the future....

Shining Starlin

What can I say about these Cubs?  Here I am trying to profile what they're like this year and it seems like with each series they flip the tables around the surprise everyone.  Cub Nation let out a collective groan after the Cubs' offense was stymied by the worst pitching staff in baseball by far, that being Pittsburgh's.  Unbelievably, the Cubs were swept.  In that series, no one swung the bat well.  Fortunately, with the more aggressive Lou Piniella of 2010, another change was made in bringing up highly-touted prospect Starlin Castro from AA and sending down Chad Tracy.  It's about time.  Tracy never deserved to make this team and although he is a good player, Kevin Millar should have beaten him out of Spring Training.  Instead, the Tracy experiment failed and Millar is working as a studio analyst for MLB Network.  However, the positive out of all this is that Castro is now with the team. 

In his first career game, Castro not only got a start, he was a bigger story on ESPN networks than the Yankees-Red Sox game!  Theriot has moved back to second base to start full time there for the first time since 2006.  I made sure to watch live as the current pride of the Cubs' farm system stepped in for his first at-bat.  First swing in the big leagues, a three-run homer off disappointing Reds prospect Homer Bailey.  Does the homer-in-first-at-bat thing sound familiar?  Jason Heyward did that against the Cubs on Opening Day, also a three-run homer.  Castro, however, one-uped Heyward later by driving in three more on a bases loaded triple.  He was the third youngest player to hit a home run in his first at-bat, the youngest Cubs shortstop ever, and his six RBI set a major league record for a player in his first game.  All that, a two-run homer by Marlon Byrd, and a grand slam by Mike Fontenot highlighted a 14-7 rout of the Reds.  Where was all of this offense in Pittsburgh?  In fact, the 14 runs Friday almost tripled the Cubs output of five during that entire series.

There hasn't been this much excitement for a prospect since Mark Prior back in the day.  I have been a big Castro fan from day one of hearing about him and I'm very impressed.  This guy can do it all!  Right away he looks like a slump-proof hitter with his compact swing and great bat speed.  His stance is good, and we evidenced his ability to drive the ball to the opposite field on the homer.  He's very speedy and a sound fielder.  Also, he's humble and won't cause any problems on the team.  What's not to like?  Oh yeah and how old is he?  20?  Am I telling you the guy can smoke major league pitching and rule ESPN for a night then not be able to celebrate with a beer afterward (legally, of course)?  That's exactly what I'm telling you.

I hope Ryan Theriot isn't upset by his move to second base, but it is in the best interest of the team to do so.  Theriot, 30, is a decade older than Castro.  I admire Theriot's good range and strong arm from short, but the throws can get a little wild and he's had a lot of errors saved by three-time Gold Glover Derrek Lee.  He is a better fit at second.

On the bright side of Theriot moving to second, his fielding now should be spotless and we will still know the Ryan Theriot the Cubs have relied on for the past three years.  Theriot has 25-steal speed and Castro probably 30-steal speed and both are good fielders, so I think we will be seeing the best double-play combo the Cubs have had in a while.  Go Cubs!     

Moody Bats

Even though they don't get any days off on weekends, the Cubs appear to enjoy sitting back and hitting over those series for the past two weeks.  After Kosuke Fukudome's first career grand slam represented the only hope in a 13-5 blowout loss on Thursday, the Cubs rebounded with three really solid wins over the weekend against the scuffling DBacks.  Alfonso Soriano got on one of his famous tears not seen since last May and contributed each day to the 11-5, 7-5, and 10-5 final scores with at least a homer in each game.  The pitching wasn't exactly great, but good and when the offense is hitting like they had then it isn't as important.  Doing what needs to be done to win is the most important thing.  If we give up 9 runs in a game, the assumption is that was a failure.  If the Cubs score 10 in that game and win, though, it's a success although obviously more must be done by the pitchers.  The Cubs did that this weekend.  The bottom line: Despite not playing perfect baseball (see: Milwaukee Massacre), the Cubs are doing plenty to win games and enough to sustain their methods all season.

Well, the Cubs just have to go out and play so well in front of the home fans only to take a day off and then just score two against the lowly Pirates at PNC Park.  I don't know when the bats will decide to stick around permanently, but it's clear that the way the Cubs play ball requires offense.  Home runs by Soriano and Geovany Soto were our only offense and that just isn't acceptable.  Mike Fontenot, most overrated player on the Cubs (don't worry, you'll be hearing more about him later) struck out to begin the 9th and the Cubs failed to create a rally.  Another good outing by Ryan Dempster was wasted and apparently he was outdueled by consistent old Paul Maholm.  Charlie Morton, starter for Wednesday's game, is a ticking bomb every inning out there because it's only a matter of time until the opponent's hitters clobber baseballs that look fatter than a beach ball out there.  Ted Lilly is on for us.

Coming soon are posts about Marlon Byrd (Wrigleyville's new spark plug) and why it's time to jump on the surprise bandwagon of the year: the Washington Nationals.  Go Cubs!   

Cubs Positional Breakdown: Overall Grade

I am really excited for this season of Cubs baseball.  Every summer the Cubs roll around and gets the entire North Side up and moving.  Popularity for baseball is still rising to levels it has never been before.  Wrigley Field is a great place to hang out, eat some unhealthy food and drink a beer (soft drink), sit back and watch some great baseball.  Like I do every year, I'm going to be sweeping the ticket websites for the cheapest possible way to get into the ballpark, after which I am free to move about the upper deck, hopefully getting tickets $15 a pop or cheaper.  That's not such a easy task with the Cubs' ticket pricing these days, but head to Stubhub.com who have very cheap tickets, most spring games starting under $10 if you hurry.  

For the actual product on the field I am excited also.  Minus Rich Harden, Jim Edmonds, Reed Johnson, Jason Marquis, and Mark DeRosa and plus Randy Wells, Marlon Byrd, Tyler Colvin, and an amazing farm system are the only differences between the 2008 club and this club.  I don't see a reason why we won't win some games.  Here are my grades:

Starting Rotation: B+
Much will depend on Zambrano's success, Lilly's return and the #5 hole.
Bullpen: B-
There's no lack of talent, but there are too many young players to be sure of success.
Infielders: A-
Newfound depth gives us Lee, Ramirez, Theriot, Baker, Fontenot, Castro, and Soto all as options.
Outfielders: B+
Soriano is the problem, but Byrd and Fukudome are both above average.
Coaching/Management: A
Ricketts is turning the Cubs into a world class franchise, Piniella is still around and Jaramillo is a god.

Overall Grade: B+

Cubs Positional Breakdown: Infield

C: Geovany Soto
It was what all reigning Rookies of the Year worry about that got Soto, the sophomore slump.  He was on the long list of MLB players thrown off their spring schedule with the WBC and also the fact he had tested positive for marijuana at a drug test.  Combined with the fact he gained some more weight showing up at Spring Training (which the Cubs weren't too pleased about), it was set up to be a bad year for Soto.  He got off to a terrible start, got hot for a few brief stretches, but remained cold for most of the year.  Soto is a big rebound candidate for 20 HR and 80 RBI after he lost an impressive 40 lbs. over the winter while still not reducing any of that power.  Look for a big bounce back in 2010.


1B: Derrek Lee
Lee, an undoubted cloubhouse leader of the Cubs, is a free agent after 2010.  I think resigning him should be our first priority next offseason because of what he offers to the team, on and off the field.  Lee has 20+ home runs in five of his six seasons in Chicago, after losing most of the 2006 season to the wrist injury that contributed to the Cubs losing the most games in the National League.  He also has 80+ RBI in those same five of six seasons.  His defense is Gold Glove worthy and he is clearly the defensive leader on the infield.  He is a critical part of the Cubs' offense that needs to rebound from 2009. 

2B: Jeff Baker
A midseason pickup from Colorado last year, Baker hit for a very high average while playing solid defense.  He will need to keep his game elevated to keep his job because there are a few other candidates, but the competition will be motivation for sure.  I really like this guy, especially after he was able to consistently get on base no matter if the rest of the Cubs were being shut down offensively.  The game that always comes to mind for me is when the Cubs were in San Francisco in September, Baker hit a two-run go-ahead homer against closer Brian Wilson.  This delayed the Cardinals' NL Central championship party for another day.  Even with the Cubs out of the playoff race, such as effort is quite a standout.

3B: Aramis Ramirez
Another important cog to a potential offensive rebound, Ramirez missed more than two months becoming the biggest injury in a season full of them for the Cubs.  His production was greatly missed, and his underappreciated defense now was a problem as well.  The Cubs were stuck with putting the 5'9" Mike Fontenot at the hot corner so he didn't come close to 6'1" Aramis' big play ability.  Ramirez is a near lock for 25 HR and 100 RBI, but his upside still could reach 30 and 115.  I like Ramirez's range on D, I see he loves stabbing liners bound down the left-field line.  His arm isn't quite as excellent because his strength sometimes takes away accuracy but Lee does a good job of masking that by digging out errant throws most of the time.

SS: Ryan Theriot
One of few underrated Cubs, Theriot is an opposite-field single smacker.  139 singles highlight a season in which Theriot was relied upon for offense more than expected.  A surprising power surge got him greedy and he began to lose much of his plate discipline, one of the skills that had made him a successful contact hitter.  His strikeouts rose by 35, his walks fell by 22, and his OBP lost 44 points.  A move to the leadoff spot should encourage himself and Cubs personnel to help him find that skill again.  Theriot is a guy who hustles hard every time he gets on the field, an attribute always good when found in speedy shortstops.  I still think he defense is underrated and although he won't make all the highlight reel plays, he is quick to dive up the middle and his throws under pressure of a quick batter are usually very accurate and the speed of a bullet.

UTIL: Mike Fontenot
Possible second baseman, I wouldn't have him at second if I were the Cubs.  After going on big hot streaks during 2007 and 2008, 2009 exposed a lot of weaknesses in his swing and defense.  His height is a minus defensively.  His power, which appeared to be an impressive 15 HR over a full season type after hitting 8 in limited action in 2008, has gone flat after hitting just 8 last year with many more at-bats.  I don't like Fontenot much because of his streakiness.  There are at-bats when you can watch him and just know there isn't a chance he is getting on base.  He could be used for trade bait at the deadline.

UTIL: Andres Blanco
A product from the minor league system, Blanco took the Cubs by storm on the field.  Bob Brenly even called him "the best defensive infielder the Cubs have seen this decade," referring to the 2000s.  I saw plays where Theriot, his double play partner, didn't try hard to make a quick toss because he knew they wouldn't get a double play but Blanco would turn it so quick and whip it to Lee they would get two anyway.  Blanco's offense is a bit below average but he showed the ability at times, I just think he was overwhelmed by major league pitching for the first time.  A backup at SS and 2B mostly, watch for Andres to be a late-inning replacement.

Backup 1B: Micah Hoffpauir
A favorite in Spring Training 2009, Hoffpauir was projected to have a nice rookie season off the bench.  His hot bat in that spring led to a quick start in the big leagues, but he struggled down the stretch to a .239 AVG.  In 234 at-bats (roughly half a season), Hoffpauir hit 10 HR and 35 RBI.  He filled in for Derrek Lee most of the time.  In early 2009, it looked like Micah could hit anything.  However, it seemed like big league pitchers figured him out and easily handled him with good breaking pitches.  His swing, messy and unkempt to begin with, got messed up by the constant change of speed and he was never able to completely adjust.  His popularity has fallen a bit in favor of other prospects like Starlin Castro, but he could still get some good playing time.

Backup C: Koyie Hill
His mediocre .237 AVG and 24 RBI in half a season wouldn't show it, but Hill made great strides at the plate in 2009.  He made some big adjustments to seeing big league pitching on a regular basis and continued to hit at an acceptable rate for a catcher the entire year.  He was able to adapt his swing to accommodate many pitches.  He also enrolled his status as one of the top defensive catchers in the National League, throwing out 40% of potential basestealers.  He became a big key on the field while Soto was on the DL for about a month.  Hill fills Henry Blanco's former role as a defensive minded backup catcher.  Koyie's contributions on both sides of the ball make him a useful part of the 2010 Cubs.