2011 Profiles: Carlos Zambrano

Which Carlos Zambrano shows up to play?


Writer's Take: This is probably the fourth consecutive Spring Training in which this has been the main question with Zambrano.  In past years, it's been the exact same situation every year.  In 2007, 2008, and 2009, Zambrano would go on hot streaks where he could be as dominating as any pitcher in the league with his mix of a great fastball and decent offspeed pitches (July 2007: 5-1, 1.38 ERA in 39 innings).  But he would also suffer months in which he struggled every start (August 2007: 0-4, 7.02 ERA in 29.1 innings), leading to him getting angry and taking it out on umpires, teammates, and/or assorted dugout equipment (just ask the poor Gatorade dispensers at Dodger Stadium and Wrigley Field).  His inconsistency and temper flares have frustrated Cubs management again and again.

In 2010, something was finally done about it.  Zambrano had already been relegated to the bullpen due to ineffectiveness out of the rotation after just four starts when the Cubs took action.  After his annual blow up of the year, a one-sided shouting match in late June with Derrek Lee in dugout of US Cellular Field after Lee didn't dive for a base hit that ended up contributing to a three-run homer, Zambrano was placed on the restricted list.  He wouldn't pitch again until over a month later in Colorado.  But he made it back in to the rotation on August 9th, and turned many heads with his play.  He went 8-0 in 11 starts after he returned with a 1.41 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 70.1 innings.  He did walk 40, but his control was much better than it had been in quite some time.

Scouts picked up on his control improvements, and labeled it in a way that hadn't been thought possible with Zambrano.  For probably the first time since 2006, Zambrano was actually locating pitches and putting his gameplan around that.  From 2007 to the first half of 2010, he had been living on his power fastball and dropping in offspeed pitches, doing just enough to fool batters.  He was the kind of pitcher who made the catcher's glove move considerably on every pitch, but it was okay because he had enough pure stuff to make up for it.  At 29 years old in 2010, his fastball stopped hitting 94 and 95 mph and would top out around 91 or 92 most days.  So he improvised.  He transformed from "a thrower into a pitcher" in one scout's words.  He's less of a strikeout pitcher than he once was, but getting ground balls leaves less risk for hits than high challenging fastballs.  So while Carlos Zambrano has been more of a perennial question mark than any player not named Mark Prior, Zambrano's mix of newfound anger management expertise and newfound control-focused pitching skills should make him a strong #2 starter for the Cubs.

Ideal Production: 13-15 wins, sub-4.00 ERA, sub-4 BB/9 and 7 K/9.

Expert Opinion: Bruce Levine of espnchicago.com wrote an article on Zambrano's tutoring of fellow Venezuelan Carlos Silva.  Zambrano's tutoring is probably gaining him respect in the Cubs clubhouse.  Plus, he's probably learning a bit himself from his teammate.

 

Homestand Wrapup: Chi Sox, Oakland, Los Angeles (AL)

Record: 4-5
Final Record: 31-38
Games Behind First: 7.0

For info on the first series against the Sox, go see the Crosstown Classic: Round One post right below this one.

Baseball fundamentals, specifically fielding, have not been a bright spot on the Cubs teams of recent years. When the Cubs were able to win with teams like 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2008, scouts cited the Cubs' high level of talent which made up for that.  However, the lack of fielding was put on display in bad fashion as the frustrated Cubs allowed too many unearned runs coming from errors and simply bad baseball.

Oakland put the pressure on the Cubs defense in game one of the series, winning 9-5 getting help from four errors committed by the Cubs, including Derrek Lee's first career two error inning.  Not only is Lee's bat unreliable these days, his former Gold Glove defense is failing him.  This game was completely ugly and the Cubs did not deserve to win.  Lee made up for it by smashing a homer to left in the 2nd Wednesday night, and the Cubs put up a zero in the error column in a 6-2 win.  Ryan Dempster pitched well and Alfonso Soriano amazingly put down a bunt, trying to play smallball on a team built for the homer.  But hey, if it works, I'll take it.  The Cubs got a surprising win on Thursday in comeback fashion with Kosuke Fukudome being the MVP in this one.  He scored to tie the game at 2 on Xavier Nady's sac fly in the 8th and hit a walk-off single to right to win it, 3-2.  Randy Wells was efficient and I was glad the Cubs were able to pull out this one.  The Cubs really need to be able to come back late in games, especially at home.  The opposing teams will play their bullpens more conservatively and basically just cruise to a win unless the Cubs make 'em earn it.  If they can't come back, at least make it a ballgame.

The Cubs did just that in the opener against the Angels.  In the former California and Anaheim Angels franchise's first ever trip to Wrigley Field, the Cubs' evil defense committed three errors and by the time the Cubs looked up at the scoreboard in the 8th it was 7-2 LA in front.  Tyler Colvin blasted a three-run homer in the 9th to make it a two run game for Derrek Lee, who redeemed himself for his error earlier in the game with a homer.  The rally died, though, and Fernando Rodney finished it.  There isn't much to talk about on Saturday.  It was all Angels.  Literally all Angels.  Howie Kendrick hit a leadoff homer for the first of his three RBI, and the game was pretty much over after Torii Hunter's blast two-run blast to make it 6-0 in the 5th.  Ted Lilly was nothing like his dominant self from the heroics of the Sunday nighter against the Sox a weekend ago.  The Cubs couldn't manage a run and fell 12-0.  Sunday was a nice rebound, and they really needed it.  Lou Piniella has now admitted he has done everything he can with this personnel to win, and the Cubs need to believe that.  It's on them now.  A 12-1 win like the one the Cubs got on Sunday would have been a whole lot sweeter if the mood didn't suggest that a win that day was probably more crucial than any other game so far this season.

Up next for the Cubs is Safeco Field in Seattle where the Cubs are 2-1 in franchise history.  2002, the first time the Cubs ever played the Seattle Mariners franchise, saw Mark Prior throw 124 pitches through seven shutout innings and 11 Ks to pick up a 2-0 win.  Freddy Garcia beat the Cubs in the next one 4-2, but Jon Lieber took the finale 5-1 and the Cubs won the series against the divisional contender at the team who were led by none other than manager Lou Piniella.  The Cubs also took two of three in 2007 at Wrigley Field, so the Cubs are 4-2 all-time against the Mariners.      

Shining Starlin

What can I say about these Cubs?  Here I am trying to profile what they're like this year and it seems like with each series they flip the tables around the surprise everyone.  Cub Nation let out a collective groan after the Cubs' offense was stymied by the worst pitching staff in baseball by far, that being Pittsburgh's.  Unbelievably, the Cubs were swept.  In that series, no one swung the bat well.  Fortunately, with the more aggressive Lou Piniella of 2010, another change was made in bringing up highly-touted prospect Starlin Castro from AA and sending down Chad Tracy.  It's about time.  Tracy never deserved to make this team and although he is a good player, Kevin Millar should have beaten him out of Spring Training.  Instead, the Tracy experiment failed and Millar is working as a studio analyst for MLB Network.  However, the positive out of all this is that Castro is now with the team. 

In his first career game, Castro not only got a start, he was a bigger story on ESPN networks than the Yankees-Red Sox game!  Theriot has moved back to second base to start full time there for the first time since 2006.  I made sure to watch live as the current pride of the Cubs' farm system stepped in for his first at-bat.  First swing in the big leagues, a three-run homer off disappointing Reds prospect Homer Bailey.  Does the homer-in-first-at-bat thing sound familiar?  Jason Heyward did that against the Cubs on Opening Day, also a three-run homer.  Castro, however, one-uped Heyward later by driving in three more on a bases loaded triple.  He was the third youngest player to hit a home run in his first at-bat, the youngest Cubs shortstop ever, and his six RBI set a major league record for a player in his first game.  All that, a two-run homer by Marlon Byrd, and a grand slam by Mike Fontenot highlighted a 14-7 rout of the Reds.  Where was all of this offense in Pittsburgh?  In fact, the 14 runs Friday almost tripled the Cubs output of five during that entire series.

There hasn't been this much excitement for a prospect since Mark Prior back in the day.  I have been a big Castro fan from day one of hearing about him and I'm very impressed.  This guy can do it all!  Right away he looks like a slump-proof hitter with his compact swing and great bat speed.  His stance is good, and we evidenced his ability to drive the ball to the opposite field on the homer.  He's very speedy and a sound fielder.  Also, he's humble and won't cause any problems on the team.  What's not to like?  Oh yeah and how old is he?  20?  Am I telling you the guy can smoke major league pitching and rule ESPN for a night then not be able to celebrate with a beer afterward (legally, of course)?  That's exactly what I'm telling you.

I hope Ryan Theriot isn't upset by his move to second base, but it is in the best interest of the team to do so.  Theriot, 30, is a decade older than Castro.  I admire Theriot's good range and strong arm from short, but the throws can get a little wild and he's had a lot of errors saved by three-time Gold Glover Derrek Lee.  He is a better fit at second.

On the bright side of Theriot moving to second, his fielding now should be spotless and we will still know the Ryan Theriot the Cubs have relied on for the past three years.  Theriot has 25-steal speed and Castro probably 30-steal speed and both are good fielders, so I think we will be seeing the best double-play combo the Cubs have had in a while.  Go Cubs!