The 2011 All-Division Team, Part 5: AL West

AL West C: Mike Napoli

Part 5 of 6: American League West


These teams have it easy.  Each NL Central winner had to be compared against each of the other five teams' player at that positon.  In the AL West, however, there are only four teams, meaning the odds of winning are increased.  Last season, six Rangers (Micheal Young, Elvis Andrus, Vladimir Guerrero, Josh Hamilton, Neftali Feliz, and Nelson Cruz) all took home awards.  Will the Rangers sweep through the division again?  Time to find out!

C Mike Napoli, TEX (2nd, first with Rangers)
The Angels are probably regretting trading Napoli away within their own division.  Wait a minute...they didn't!  In what has become a footnote now, Napoli was a part of the Vernon Wells trade to Toronto, but the Jays turned around and swung him to Texas for Frank Francisco just a few days later.  Playing for the Texas Rangers and against his former team 18 times a year now, Napoli had one of the best offensive seasons ever for a catcher.  If he had gotten a full season's worth of at-bats, it easily would have rivaled any of Mike Piazza's best campaigns.  Instead, Napoli, playing in just 113 games due to injury, hit 'only' 30 homers and 75 RBIs.  His .320 average and .414 OBP are unheard of for a catcher, and his .631 slugging percentage would have led MLB, however he does not have enough at-bats to qualify.  No wonder the fans chant his name so much in Arlington.
Competition: Jeff Mathis (LAA), Kurt Suzuki (OAK), and Miguel Olivo (SEA).

1B Mark Trumbo, LAA
The big Trumbo came out of nowhere and took on the AL while manning first base in Anaheim, much like teammate Kendrys Morales did two years ago.  The only difference is Morales can and does walk with any regularity whatsoever.  Trumbo and his 25 walks?  Nope.  Luckily, his 29 home runs got the Angels going and kept them in the shadows of contention all season until a late surge fell short.  The fan favorite got AL Rookie of the Year voting and has an impressive power swing, but will need to make adjustments if he was to continue to have success.
Competition: Mitch Moreland (TEX), Justin Smoak (SEA), and Daric Barton (OAK).

AL West 2B: Ian Kinsler
Don't try this at home, kids.

2B Ian Kinsler, TEX
In the healthiest season of his career, Kinsler put together his best season yet.  Returning to 30-30 form that eluded him in an injury-riddled 2010, he walked 27 times more than he ever had in a season.  It's hard for me to quantify how great of an overall player Kinsler really is.  I mean how often do second basemen hit 30 home runs?  Most importantly, though, Kinsler is still one of the longest tenured on these championship contending Rangers teams and is a definite team leader, representing his entire state (the Astros don't count).
Competition: Jemile Weeks (OAK), Howie Kendrick (LAA), and Dustin Ackley (SEA).

3B Adrian Beltre, TEX (2nd, first with Rangers)
As if offense was ever a problem for the Texas Rangers, GM Jon Daniels swept in during the offseason and snatched Beltre, a big surprise to many who thought he'd go to the Angels or back to the Red Sox. The freeswinger landed in Arlington and earned every penny in his first season there, hitting 32 homers and 105 RBIs in about 4/5 of a full season.  Sure the ballpark and lineup protection help, but that shouldn't take away from his .296 batting average.  With an offense this great, you could almost imagine them not needing any pitching.
Competition: Chone Figgins (SEA), Alberto Callaspo (LAA), and Scott Sizemore (OAK).

SS Erick Aybar, LAA
In the past two seasons, the Angels have not been the same team they were for almost all of the 2000s.  During that time the Angels were known for effectively using smallball mechanics and playing the game fundamentally well, as directed by manager Mike Scioscia.  Recently, though, they haven't had the same strong fielding and baserunning skills.  Aybar, though, was a holdout of the issue.  Erick Aybar is fast and agile which allows him to play shortstop well.  I've seen an improvement in his hitting skills for average, and he was 30-for-36 in steal attempts; clearly he's running on the right counts.  Oh, and now he gets to play with Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson.  
Competition: Elvis Andrus (TEX), Cliff Pennington (OAK), and Brendan Ryan (SEA).

AL West LF: Josh Willingham

LF Josh Willingham, OAK
Willingham was GM Billy Beane's biggest move last winter, and he gave the A's pretty much everything they could've asked for.  Although his one season in Oakland proved a 'one-and-out' as Willingham has signed with Twins now, his run production skills were not lost on a team that seems to always be in search of such skills.  His 29 home runs, including 15 at the dreaded O.co Coliseum (their new corporate naming rights deal is a website?  Really?  Who are these guys, the Phoenix Coyotes?), were the only major power source on the team.  In fact, his 15 homers at home were more than any other teammates' total - home or road.  Oh, and Willingham also had 26 RBIs more than anyone else on the team.
Competition: Vernon Wells (LAA), Trayvon Robinson (SEA), and David Murphy (TEX).

CF Josh Hamilton, TEX (2nd)
It wasn't quite MVP quality like 2010 was, but J-Ham's 2011 season was notable again for significant success but also the continued abundance of injury.  This time injury struck almost right away, as Hamilton was injured in Detroit during the second week of the season.  He still batted .298 and slugged .536 with 94 RBIs in only 121 games, but I still get the feeling that Hamilton has not achieved his full potential in any of his four 'full' seasons with the Rangers.  Even so, he hit what should have been one of the biggest homers in World Series history with his extra-inning blast in Game 6 to take the lead.  However, the Rangers - much like Hamilton - came up short again.
Competition: Peter Bourjos (LAA), Franklin Gutierrez (SEA), and Coco Crisp (OAK).

RF Nelson Cruz, TEX (2nd)
Nelly!  Cruz hit 29 homers in about 4/5 of a full season, playing in 124 games (it seems like every Ranger only played 4/5).  More notably, however, was that he collected 14 hits in 17 playoff games.  Eight of those 14 hits were home runs.  The October power came at Reggie Jackson levels this season. In the regular season, Cruz gave the Rangers an alternative, low-key power threat.  He's an undoubtedly freeswinging slugger; Cruz is going to hit the ball hard somewhere.
Competition: Ichiro Suzuki (SEA), Torii Hunter (LAA), and David DeJesus (OAK).

AL West DH: Michael Young
The best player in franchise history,
Michael Young is Mr. Ranger.

DH Michael Young, TEX (2nd)
Finally, a fully healthy Ranger!  If there is anyone on the Rangers invincible to injury, it has to be Young; he has missed significant time in only one year in the last decade.  He also silenced critics who suggested his batting skills were declining in 2010 with another career year, collecting over 200 hits for a .338 batting average.  You also know a guy is clutch and a key run producer when he gets over 100 RBIs with only 11 homers, as did Young in 2011.  And instead of being traded to a mediocre Rockies team, Young got to lead his franchise to another World Series.  Not too bad, I'd say.
Competition: Bobby Abreu (LAA), Casper Wells (SEA), and Hideki Matsui (OAK).

SP C.J. Wilson, TEX
Wilson must be the Angels' revenge for watching Napoli burn them in 2011.  After only his second full season as a starter in the Majors, Wilson jumped ship for the Angels in a mega deal.  Before you jump on the overrated bandwagon like I did at the time of the signing, consider that Wilson had an ERA on the road nearly a run better than at home.  Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is one of the worst ballparks for pitchers to pitch in in the entire league, and the move to Angel Stadium should feel nice and spacious.  Ignoring his awful postseason, Wilson struck out over 200 in over 200 innings and kept his overall hits allowed total low.  I think these factors add up to a good, although not great, first season in Anaheim.  If he can't shake off that postseason in which is WHIP was over 1.7, he's going to have some major problems.
Competition: Jered Weaver (LAA), Felix Hernandez (SEA), and Trevor Cahill (OAK).

CP Brandon League, SEA
This 28-year-old doesn't come off as your typical shutdown closer, but he gave the Mariners some real value out of the bullpen, for whatever it's worth on that team.  League saved 37 of Seattle's 67 wins last season and walked only 10 in over 60 innings pitched.  He struck out a decent amount and kept his WHIP low, putting together a decent season in a place where no one will appreciate it.  But he's definitely the best in the division, especially when you consider that he played a full season (unlike Andrew Bailey), kept his blown saves in the single digits (unlike Jordan Walden), and didn't blow a World Series (sorry, Neftali Feliz).  Nothing personal guys....
Competition: Walden (LAA), Feliz (TEX), and Bailey (OAK).


Why, yes, the Rangers get seven awards this year.  Perhaps more notably, though, was that I was able to find a winner out of those 95-loss Mariners.  Way to go, Brandon League!
    

The 2011 All-Division Team, Part 4: NL Central

NL Central RF: Lance Berkman

Part 4 of 6: National League Central


Before turning to another awesome edition of the All-Division Team, I must make an announcement.  An apology, actually.  In my post comparing Prince Fielder and Yu Darvish, I incorrectly reported that the Blue Jays had won his bidding rights, which I believed to be true at the time of writing.  Although the Jays were the second-closest team to earning the rights, the Rangers actually won them.  I got some faulty information.  Won't happen again.  OK?  OK!

In the creation of the All-Division Team, however, selections are subjective.  Feel free to disagree and argue against any of the winners!

C Yadier Molina, STL 
'Yadi' has been a key contributor to both World Champion Cardinals teams from the past half-decade.  Since 2006, though, he has also developed into probably the best defensive catcher in the National League.  His knack for throwing to the bases after pitches to keep runners close proves very effective, and the team leader is still only 28.  At the plate Molina displays rare contact skills from a catcher, striking out under 50 times in 475 at-bats.  Batting .305 doesn't hurt either.  Competition: Geovany Soto (CHC), Michael McKenry (PIT), Humberto Quintero (HOU), Jonathan Lucroy (MIL), and Ramon Hernandez (CIN).

1B Prince Fielder, MIL
In his ever-pivotal walk year, the Prince put on a show.  Ever wonder how Ryan Braun really beat Matt Kemp in the MVP race, even though Kemp's stats were better?  Look no further.  Providing Braun with ultimate lineup protection, Fielder walked more than he struck out in 2011 (highly rare for a power hitter) and blasted 38 homers and 120 RBIs while slugging .566.  It's no wonder that a feared power hitter like Braun, who bats directly in front of Fielder, went the whole season being intentionally walked just twice.  If I were a pitcher, I wouldn't want to face the Prince either.  Competition: Albert Pujols (STL), Carlos Pena (CHC), Joey Votto (CIN), Lyle Overbay (PIT), and Brett Wallace (HOU).

2B Brandon Phillips, CIN
Who's the best shortstop in the NL Central?  Why of course, it's Dat Dude BP!  Brandon Phillips, who entertains fans on Twitter with the aforementioned handle, enjoyed one of his best seasons in a year that found him taking home his first Silver Slugger and his third Gold Glove after making his second All-Star appearance in July.  Besides continuing to be a 20-20 threat and a consistently clutch run producer, Phillips batted .300 for the first time in his career.  His positive leadership and attitude and vital traits to the Reds organization at the moment as its future is unclear.  Way to go, Brandon.  Competition: Skip Schumaker (STL), Neil Walker (PIT), Jose Altuve (HOU), Darwin Barney (CHC), and Rickie Weeks (MIL).

3B Aramis Ramirez, CHC
Ramirez had another slow start in the power department for the second year in a row.  This time, however, his swing was looking good and his mechanics were correct, he just wasn't clearing the wall for whatever reason.  The Chicago weather heated up around the same time his bat did, though, and he finished with 26 homers.  A rare breed of the low-strikeout slugger, Ramirez struck out only 69 times.  In his final season with the Cubs he cemented his place as one of the Cubs' great third basemen of all-time.  Competition: Scott Rolen (CIN), David Freese (STL), Casey McGehee (MIL), Pedro Alvarez (PIT), and Chris Johnson (HOU).

NL Central SS: Starlin Castro

SS Starlin Castro, CHC (2nd)
In one of the better breakout performances of 2011, this sophomore was the National League's hit king with 207 knocks.  Developing power began to show its potential as the season went on, and much improved baserunning skills showed the makings of a franchise player.  While defense is still an issue, it was better than it was a year before and strides of improvement can be expected for 2012.  With so much raw talent, there's no telling the ceiling on this guy's future.  If 2011 was just the beginning, it was pretty awesome.  Competition: Clint Barmes (HOU), Ryan Theriot (STL), Yuniesky Betancourt (MIL), Ronny Cedeno (PIT), and Paul Janish (CIN).

LF Ryan Braun, MIL
Steroids, anyone?  Even if Braun took performance-enhancing drugs during the 2011 season, it was exciting to watch while it lasted.  He took the middling Brewers to the NLCS and led the best team in the league for most of the season.  Braun put up above average numbers even for power hitters but perhaps more impressive was the .397 OBP, which meant runners on base for the batters behind him, most notably the Prince.  An outburst of speed at age 27 also had pitchers distracted.  Competition: Alfonso Soriano (CHC), Carlos Lee (HOU), Matt Holliday (STL), Ryan Ludwick (PIT), and Yonder Alonso (CIN).

NL Central CF: Andrew McCutchen

CF Andrew McCutchen, PIT (2nd)
McCutchen put it all together in his second full season.  The Pirates, who surprised the world with their contention into July, relied on McCutchen's 20-20 talent everyday.  His energy invigorated a dead Pittsburgh franchise and the winning ways will be back sometime soon as long as Andrew McCutchen is in center.  He revealed a newfound patience in 2011, a tool that eludes most young power-speed dual threat players.  Competition: Jason Bourgeois (HOU), Marlon Byrd (CHC), Nyjer Morgan (MIL), Drew Stubbs (CIN), and Jon Jay (STL).

RF Lance Berkman, STL
Say what?  I was thinking the Cardinals' signing of Berkman - to start in right field, no less - would be something along the lines of disastrous.  Apparently Berkman still has game though, and he proved it with an incredible .412 OBP and 31 homers, batting .301 overall.  His defense was okay in right field, but his offensive production far outweighed any criticism there.  Playing 145 games, he also walked 92 times, among the leaders in the NL.  This was simply one of the best offensive seasons in baseball, not just of right fielders or comeback veterans.

SP Matt Garza, CHC
The NL Central was a surprisingly weak division for starting pitchers.  Garza, though, was huge for his team.  In a Cubs rotation that essentially imploded with the loss of the #4 and #5 starters in the first week of the regular season, Garza provided stability and consistent outings all season long.  In return, he earned some of the worst run support in the NL.  Being a leader and ultimate team player, however, was not lost on this writer.  Competition: Yovani Gallardo (MIL), Chris Carpenter (STL), Kevin Correia (PIT), Bronson Arroyo (CIN), and Wandy Rodriguez (HOU).

CP John Axford, MIL
Any Cubs fan who watched the Cubs fail in Milwaukee last season got to see a load of this guy, but not for very long because the Cubs were little resistance to Axford's dominant ways.  He finished the season 46-for-48 in saves with a 1.95 ERA, striking out almost four for each batter he walked.  The Brewers can't ask for much more out of this 6-5 beast who seemingly came out of nowhere to become the shutdown closer on the NL's most complete team.  What a stud.  Competition: Carlos Marmol (CHC), Mark Melancon (HOU), Francisco Cordero (CIN), Jason Motte (STL), and Joel Hanrahan (PIT).


That does it for another installment of the MLB All-Division Team!  Next up is the AL West, followed by the NL West and finally a summary of the whole thing.  

The 2011 All-Division Team, Part 3: AL Central

AL Central SS: Asdrubal Cabrera, one of baseball's
best surprises on the surprising Cleveland Indians

This six-part series resumes with the AL Central.

C Carlos Santana, CLE
I can now say with surprising certainty that Santana is the best catcher in the American League.  Here in his first full season at age 25, Santana dazzled with the bat and should have been an All-Star.  His .239 average is nothing special, but 27 home runs, 97 RBIs and walks (good for a .351 OBP, fantastic for a catcher and highest on his impatient team) confirm his star status.  The Indians remain a team with little power on the roster but Santana by himself can produce runs with the best of catchers.  Competition: A.J. Pierzynski (CWS), Alex Avila (DET), Matt Treanor (KC), and Drew Butera (MIN).

1B Miguel Cabrera, DET (2nd)
It was an oddly quiet season again for Cabrera, who won the AL batting title at .344 and the AL OBP title at .448.  But Cabrera easily could have been the MVP of the league if this wasn't the hardest year to win the AL MVP in who knows how long.  Cabrera finished fifth in the voting.  He 'only' hit 30 homers and 105 RBIs, which might explain the lack of MVP love.  But he did set a career high in walks for the second straight year, finishing second in the AL with 108 and only 89 strikeouts.  Of the 24 players who hit 30 homers in 2011, only Jose Bautista, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, Ian Kinsler, and Cabrera walked more than they struck out.  Talk about elite company.  Competition: Paul Konerko (CWS), Justin Morneau (MIN), Matt LaPorta (CLE), and Eric Hosmer (KC).

2B Alexi Casilla, MIN
In an awful, awful AL Central class of second basemen, Casilla is the best, but that doesn't say much.  This race was more about who hurt their team less than helped their team more.  Failed prospect Gordon Beckham and ever-impatient Orlando Cabrera actually hurt their teams with terrible seasons.  Ramon Santiago is a no-offense utility man and Chris Getz needs to use all the muscle he has when he wants to hit it far; for him, that's in shallow center.  Casilla was second the Twins with 15 steals had a good contact rate.  For lack of a better option, I'll take it.  Competition: Beckham (CWS), Cabrera (CLE), Santiago (DET), and Getz (KC).

3B Danny Valencia, MIN
Third base is another weak spot in the division.  Valencia takes the title with 15 home runs and 72 RBIs.  Despite a bad walk rate, Valencia managed a mediocre season in probably the worst hitters' park in the Majors now in Target Field.  He even hit nine of his home runs there, a rare accomplishment so far in the ballpark's two-year history.  No third baseman in the division even managed to hit above .270.  Competition: Brandon Inge (DET), Brent Morel (CWS), Jack Hannahan (CLE), and Mike Moustakas (KC).

SS Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE
Cabrera's role in MLB seemed to be defined heading into 2011; he was an average hitting shortstop with little power and a bit of speed.  That was until he redefined his entire career in his age 25 season of 2011, hitting 25 home runs after never hitting more than six in a season and making his first All-Star team, winning his first Silver Slugger, and even gaining MVP votes.  Cabrera was the biggest individual reason in how the Indians, a projected cellar dweller, rose to first place with an incredible 20-6 start to the season.  His outburst kept Cleveland in contention for the summer until his former teammate Jhonny Peralta and Tigers surpassed them late.  Competition: Peralta (DET), Alexei Ramirez (CWS), Tsuyoshi Nishioka (MIN), and Alcides Escobar (KC).

AL Central LF: Alex Gordon

LF Alex Gordon, KC
It was hard not to feel bad for the highly-touted Gordon, who was supposed to be the next big thing in Kansas City.  In the mid-2000s scouts deemed Gordon would be the best thing to happen to the Royals since George Brett.  Unfortunately Gordon was a bust his first few seasons, but he put it all together in 2011 with a .303 average, .376 OBP, 23 home runs, 87 RBIs, and 17 steals.  His .502 slugging percentage led the team and his swing is one of the nicest to see.  I see now why scouts liked him so much.  Although he is already 27, better late than never.  The Royals are going to be a great team very soon and this is the guy to build around.  Competition: Juan Pierre (CWS), Brennan Boesch (DET), Michael Brantley (CLE), and Delmon Young (MIN).

CF Melky Cabrera, KC
Actually a year younger than his next-door teammate Gordon, Cabrera surprised everyone with an elite season in center.  It seemed his career was on a downtrend after already being shipped out of two franchises upon arrival in KC, but he had by far the best season of his career.  The most interesting part of it, however, is how he did it.  Cabrera has always been a good contact hitter although not necessarily a patient one.  In 2011, though, his walk rate dropped lower than usual and his strikeout output was over 40% of his normal total, and yet he batted .305 with 18 homers, 87 RBIs and 20 steals.  A repeat performance is unlikely, but if there were one, I'd be a fan.  Competition: Alex Rios (CWS), Austin Jackson (DET), Grady Sizemore (CLE), and Ben Revere (MIN).

RF Michael Cuddyer, MIN
I have him listed here as a right fielder, but every day Cuddyer seems to be playing somewhere different. In the last two seasons, he has played at first base, second base, third base, center field, right field, and he even pitched once.  Injuries were the bread and butter of the problems facing the 2011 Twins, but Cuddyer was one of the few that avoided the plague.  He was pressed into duty all over the diamond but still produced offensively at a high level and now has landed himself a real nice contract with the Colorado Rockies.  The 32-year-old also expanded his market in 2011, reaching double digits in steals for the first time and getting his first trip to the All-Star Game.  Even though Jeff Francoeur of the Royals actually had a better individual season, Cuddyer was the only thing that kept the inept Twins from insanity.  Competition: Francoeur (KC), Shin-Soo Choo (CLE), Magglio Ordonez (DET), and Carlos Quentin (CWS).

AL Central DH: Victor Martinez

DH Victor Martinez, DET
To see how much of Martinez's role in his first year with Detroit played, reread Miguel Cabrera's summary above.  Even though Martinez didn't flash power he normally does, he still batted .330 and was clutch for sure, driving in over 100 runs for the fourth time in his career.  Cabrera's intentional walk total dropped 10 from 2010 to 2011, a seemingly small but notable difference.  Martinez was able to drive in all the runs Cabrera couldn't and this made the Tigers offense a triumphant unit all season long.  It's hard to get numbers that certify the value of his lineup protection, especially because a lot of that effect is mental for a pitcher.  But he's there alright, and making a difference.  Competition: Jim Thome (MIN), Travis Hafner (CLE), Adam Dunn (CWS), and Billy Butler (KC).

SP Justin Verlander, DET (2nd)
Best in the division and best in the league according to the baseball writers, who handed Verlander the Cy Young and MVP trophies in a season for the ages for this tall 28-year-old.  He had the best pitching season of anyone since Randy Johnson was doin' his thing in the desert, I think.  The wins continued to pile up in the 24-5 season with 250 strikeouts in 251 innings pitched; Pedro Martinez-type numbers.  There's not much else to be said.  Competition: Mark Buehrle (CWS), Luke Hochevar (KC), Carl Pavano (MIN), and Justin Masterson (CLE).

CP Jose Valverde, DET
'El Papa Grande' entered a realm of his own this season.  The 33-year-old Papa, playing with his third team in five years and going slightly under-the-radar entering this season despite domination to show for his entire career, saved 49 games for Detroit and blew none, earning his second straight All-Star selection.  His antics put a smile on even the toughest of his teammates' gamefaces while infuriating opponents.  A truly dominating closer like Valverde gets into the hitter's mind with the game on the line in the tightest of situations.  He wasn't perfect, but he was as close to it as a closer gets.  Competition: Sergio Santos (CWS), Chris Perez (CLE), Matt Capps (MIN), and Joakim Soria (KC).

Fit For a Prince, Or Was Yu da Man?

Prince Fielder would a better player to
build around than Yu Darvish.

Cubs pursuing first baseman Prince Fielder and pursued starter Yu Darvish; which move would have made more sense?


Two of the top free agents remaining in the winter free agent pool were being actively pursued by the Cubs, at least until one of them fell off the board officially earlier today.  Darvish, 25, is a right-handed starter who was the ace of the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan since 2007 (his first full season), going 93-38 over seven total seasons.  Fielder, 27, is the big man from Milwaukee already known for his 230 career homers and supposed weight of 275 pounds (does anyone believe that?).  The Cubs have, through outside reports or press releases, made aggressive strides towards acquiring both.  It appeared before and still does now that getting both was not within the real of possibility for Theo & Co, which leaves the main question; which one actually helps the Cubs more in the short-term and long-term?

Although a great pitcher, no one knows how
well Yu Darvish will adjust to MLB hitters.

If you think the answer is Darvish, unfortunately we'll never find out how accurate that estimation is.  The Texas Rangers (UPDATED) won the exclusive bidding rights for Darvish and now will be the only team with a chance to sign him.  This doesn't mean he is now a Ranger, but it does mean that if Darvish is playing in MLB next season, it can now only be with Texas.  If the Rangers don't work out a deal with him, which is highly unlikely, I think he returns to Japan.  Now it's up to Rangers GM Jon Daniels and the rest of the Texas staff to work out a contract with him.  The Cubs, Yankees, and Blue Jays also placed bids for negotiating rights, but the Rangers appear to be the highest bider.

The negotiating rights process Darvish is going through is very similar to that of Daisuke Matsuzaka when the Red Sox won the negotiating rights for him in the 2006/07 offseason.  Matsuzaka, who was also pursued by the Yankees, signed with the Red Sox after they won negotiating rights, the two deals (negotiating rights and contract) coming at a combined price tag of over $100 million.  Dice-K has been a major disappointment for Boston and has caused plenty of second-guessing in the Darvish sweepstakes.

Matsuzaka was 26 when he signed, and he was hailed as the future ace of the Red Sox, an international star who would only dominate even more with the move to the United States.  How could American hitters possibly solve a pitcher with eight different pitches, analysts pondered.  Apparently they have, and five years into his Red Sox career he has given them just 49 wins on a stunningly mediocre 4.25 ERA.  He has missed significant time to injury each of the last three seasons.

Although Darvish's mechanics and pure 'stuff' would suggest otherwise, he could perform similarly.  At the time of his signing, Darvish was coming off five straight seasons with an ERA under 2.00 in Japan.  At the time of his, Matsuzaka was coming off four straight seasons with an ERA under 3.00.  One would hope Darvish will have more success, and his blistering fastball, drop-dead 12-6 curveball and physics-defying slider would suggest so.  But the possibility lingers that Darvish, like Matsuzaka, will struggle to adapt to American hitters who are more patient and skilled than ones he has faced before, especially in the power department.

Fielder brings a very different type of energy to the team.  Fielder is a known commodity in MLB and especially to Cubs fans who have been watching him grow over the past half-decade.  Since a breakout 50-homer season in 2007, he has been all over the league launching bombs with great regularity and positive swagger.  During the Winter Meetings a friend of his leaked that Fielder is most interested in playing for the Cubs than any of the other suitors, which include the Mariners, Nationals, and possibly Texas.  Then why, you ask, is a deal takin' so dang long?!  First of all, he's a Scott Boras client.  Boras has no problem running out the clock on teams to earn his clients each and every penny that they're "due".  Secondly, the Cubs have been non-committal about Fielder to the media so their interest level throughout the process has probably varied.  The Cubs are now in the mix, but a deal with Boras isn't going to be struck overnight.  We certainly won't see anything like the Albert Pujols-to-Anaheim deal, which saw the Angels make initial contact with Pujols just 36 hours before signing one of the most pivotal contracts in baseball history.

If trying to browse through media to gauge the Cubs' level of interest on Fielder, you're probably getting a lot of crossing signals.  Yes, it's very confusing at this point.  Many things I've heard say the Cubs are involved and in pursuit with intent to sign, while others, like manager Dale Sveum, have come out and said the Cubs are not involved at all.  In my opinion, Sveum is either surprisingly unaware of what his front office is up to or trying to do a cover-up job, and a bad one at that.  He said the Cubs organization has had no contact at all with Fielder, which is definitely untrue.

Whichever way you put it though, the Cubs have had serious interest in both.  In my opinion, the Cubs would be better off with Fielder instead of Darvish.  The fair criticism of Darvish in comparison to Matsuzaka and other recent Japanese pitchers who have fizzled is evidence enough that although he looks impressive now, the transition to MLB hitters is very tough.  This means dishing out big bucks to Darvish is a very volatile move, and if he can't get it together, the Cubs are stuck with another big contract that they don't want.

Even though Fielder also presents the obvious risk of an big contract and is no man invincible to natural decline with age, the level of risk is significantly lower.  If the Cubs had won Darvish, his new team would be thousands of miles away and his new competition would be far better.  If Fielder could track down one of those long-distance suburban taxi companies between Chicago and Milwaukee, he could probably take a cab from Miller Park to his new home at Wrigley.  He would be in the same division and same league, so for him the focus would basically be to continue what he has already been doing his whole career.

Also, what statement does the signing make?  If the Cubs were actually in full rebuilding mode, they would not even be considering these two top free agents.  Because the Cubs are the Cubs, however, and wreak the benefits of being a large-market team and are really the most famous franchise in the National League, they can afford to sign a superstar to build around, which can either accelerate the rebuilding process or send it backwards a few steps.  I think Fielder would be a great character to build around and bring stability to a position that demands it especially after the loss of Aramis Ramirez to those Brewers.

Darvish would have far too many immediate obstacles to become a team leader to build around.  The language barrier is a major obstacle, and a bust deal would reverse the depth issue because the Cubs would have to pay double-digit millions per year for a bad starter eating a rotation spot, similar to Matsuzaka's recent role with the Red Sox.  Although rotation depth is a major problem for the Cubs right now, this was not the right opportunity to fix it.  Thankfully the Cubs have taken a good step in finding rotation depth as they are now talking to Paul Maholm about a contract.  Other targets I would explore are Edwin Jackson, Javier Vazquez, Jon Garland, and Roy Oswalt.

So finally, Prince Fielder is the guy to build around if there is one between these two.  The Rangers winning Darvish rights may not be a bad thing; it prevents possibility of the Cubs making a deal far too volatile for their current losing situation.          

Cubs Trade Tyler Colvin to Rockies; Acquire Ian Stewart

New Cubs third baseman Ian Stewart

The Cubs are shuffling the outfield deck for the second time in a week.  On Thursday afternoon, just as the world was in the midst of Albert Pujols shock, the Cubs and Rox closed the Winter Meetings with a deal that sends Colvin and infielder D.J. LeMahieu to Colorado for Stewart and right-handed reliever Casey Weathers.  The deal comes approximately a week after the Cubs made their first major move of the offseason in signing David DeJesus who is now undoubtedly going to be the everyday right fielder.

At first I was very skeptical of this trade, and I sure didn't expect Colvin to be traded out of our surplus of outfielders.  Before this trade, there were four outfielders that demanded regular playing time: Colvin, Tony Campana, Marlon Byrd, and Alfonso Soriano.  That also doesn't include infrequent visits from Blake DeWitt and prospects soon to arrive like Brett Jackson, who will demand playing time upon arrival.  However, it was Colvin who was dumped.

Ian Stewart has been the Rockies third baseman for about four years, but injuries derailed his 2011 season. At his best in 2009 and 2010, Stewart hit 25 and 18 home runs, respectively, but for a very low average.  He does strikeout plenty but also walks a decent amount, raising his OBP around 80 points higher than his batting average.  He hit only .156 in his 122 at-bats last season without a home run, very similar to Colvin's demise.

Which player will recover more effectively?  I couldn't answer this question, and neither could my quick research, so I turned to the media of all places for some reaction.  MLB Network's Clubhouse Confidential show, which examines the offseason and players via sabermetrics, declared Stewart the better player and more likely to rebound because of his better career walk rate in the minors (.373 career minors OBP compared to Colvin's .315).

The Cubs' top draft pick in 2006, Tyler Colvin's Cubs
career is finished after just 221 games.

Now that we've got that figured out, let's get to the bottom of the minor pieces.  LeMahieu, still only 23, took only two years from being drafted in 2009 to reach the Majors in 2011.  He didn't show much in his brief trial, but his minor league records are more notable.  A .317 career hitter in the minors, his 11% strikeout rate opened plenty of eyes.  Even though he has been a great contact hitter in the minors, that often changes quickly in the Majors against power pitchers never faced before.  LeMahieu was projected to get some playing time at third or around the infield in 2012, but overall, not a big loss.

Weathers, on the other hand, could be a decent pickup for the Cubs.  The 27-year-old Weathers, who has never played under the big league lights before, had major control issues in 2011 at AA Tulsa for the first time in his professional career, walking the same amount he struck out.  He has terrific strikeout stuff, but continued control problems will not make him an asset at all.  The Cubs will just have to hope it was a fluke.  In my initial reaction to the trade, I figured Weathers would stay in AA and AAA for most of the season.  Apparently he's being invited to big league camp in Arizona and will compete for a bullpen spot on the Major League team.  We'll see what happens.

Overall, this is a good trade.  Theo & Co. like guys with a high OBP, and they got another one here.  Stewart plays a decent defensive third base (better than Aramis Ramirez), and his home run balls will reach Sheffield on multiple occasions.  When he really squares up an inside fastball and gulfs a home run, his swing looks pretty awesome.  The loss of LeMahieu isn't anything to stress about, and Weathers has lots of upside.  So we've got that goin' for us, which is nice.

Cubs Sign David DeJesus

Note #1: Like Chicago Cubs Insider on Facebook!  I really haven't done anything with the page until now, but I plan to post it frequently.

Note #2: Through a special baseball seminar I'm taking, a fellow group of students and I got to Skype with Tampa Bay Rays President Matthew Silverman and Director of Baseball Operations Erik Neander.  They talked about how they've achieved such great success in the scouting and development fields (pun intended) and how they've done all of it with the limitations of a small market, including a questionable fan base.  About a possible move, they agreed the Rays "aren't going anywhere" for now and they will have to make the best of their situation.  I asked them a question; after seeing Jeremy Hellickson and Desmond Jennings have great success as rookies in 2011, is there any rookie in particular you are excited to see make an impact on the 2012 Rays?  They said Matt Moore should be a great pitcher especially after the clutch performance he put on late in the season and in the first game in the playoffs.  Interestingly enough, Silverman and Neander said that Moore was more prepared for the big leagues than David Price was when they brought him up for the stretch run in 2008.

And now onto the major Cubs news of the week, the signing of outfielder David DeJesus.  Don't know much about this 5'11", 190 lb. 31-year-old?  I can't blame you.  DeJesus was a mainstay in the Kansas City outfield from 2005 to 2009 before injury and a disappointing season in Oakland in 2011.  Although he has played 1,007 games in his career, none have been against the Cubs.  In fact, the Cubs are the only team he has never played against.  However, he has 40 career RBI against the White Sox (the fourth-most of any opponent) and a .336 career batting average against the Cardinals.  If we have nothing else to go off, there's a good start.

But I won't leave you hanging there.  I've done my homework on this dude.  DeJesus is not a power hitter or necessarily speedy, yet he remains a quality outfielder worthy of a starting job, a rare breed in today's flashy generation of outfielders.  DeJesus' career highs in homers and steals are 13 and 11, respectively, totals that will not open any eyes (not positively, at least).  But he does possess a career .284 batting average and .356 OBP.  In my eyes, he has a nice swing and is a great contact hitter.  He doesn't strike out much (13% of plate appearances), but he walks a decent amount (8%).

DeJesus is not going to fill up a highlight reel; he's rather a solid baseball player who stays relatively healthy and provides a moderate mix of the five main tools at a relatively low cost.  In this way I think he's a very Theo-like player (see: J.D. Drew, Jed Lowrie, etc.).  And on the 2012 Cubs, he projects to have a big role.  The official Cubs depth chart reads him as the starting right fielder, ahead of Tyler Colvin and Tony Campana.  But the real question is, is it a smart move?

In short, it was a necessary move but not necessarily a smart one.  Theo & Co. were right to add another outfielder; I'm not sure DeJesus was the right guy.  He's an odd fit in this outfield and his role is unclear, especially with Colvin still being viewed as the eventual starter if he can get back on track from an awful season.  DeJesus is a solid baseball player but does not shine anywhere.  I think the Cubs would have been better served to get a specific tool-threat, like the speed and defense of Coco Crisp.

Another thing to explore is whether or not DeJesus will replace a current outfielder.  I've said before that I don't see Marlon Byrd returning in 2012 even though he is under contract; I'm officially broadening the statement to either Byrd or Alfonso Soriano will not return.  I didn't think it was possible to unload Soriano before, but I have a very hard time seeing the new hotshot brain trust (Theo and Jed Hoyer) putting up with his lackadaisical defense and the like.  They could find a way to make it happen.  If one of the two were goners, DeJesus would probably move there, opening right field for Colvin and Campana.  Still, however, Crisp would have been the better move on a team desperate for speed like his.

DeJesus' wife is fired up about the whole Cubs thing.  Not only did they buy a house in Wheaton recently, she grew up a Cubs fan.  According to her Twitter, as a young girl she would tell everyone that someday she would marry Ryne Sandberg.  And 20 years later, here she is married to a Cub.  Let's just hope David brings the same enthusiasm along to the Windy City.    

The 2011 All-Division Team, Part 2: NL East

Jose Reyes won the 2011 NL batting title.

Part 2 of 6: National League East


C Brian McCann, ATL (2nd)
Most importantly, McCann avoided becoming a hostage in Venezuela like one of his competition at this spot, Nationals catcher Wilson Ramos.  McCann has been the most consistent catcher over the past half-decade, earning his sixth straight All-Star selection.  His annual production of 20 homers and 70+ RBIs is welcome on a disjointed and aging Atlanta offense that has literally no speed outside of Michael Bourn only one other major power threat, the recent addition of Dan Uggla.  Truth is, the Braves would be lost without McCann, but not even he could carry his tired team into the playoffs as the Braves blew their big wild card lead.  Competition: Josh Thole (NYM), Carlos Ruiz (PHI), Wilson Ramos (WAS), John Buck (FLA).

1B Mike Morse, WAS
Where did this guy come from?  Morse was ironically exactly what the Nationals expected out of Jayson Werth, who was hampered by injury and had a down season.  The 29-year-old Morse got his first full season in 2011, but few expected such a breakout.  Morse had never even hit 20 homers in a minor league season, and he comes out with 31 for Washington.  He also became a team leader along the way.  Competition: Ryan Howard (PHI), Gaby Sanchez (FLA), Freddie Freeman (ATL), and Daniel Murphy (NYM).

2B Dan Uggla, ATL (2nd, first with Braves)
In a season highlighted by a 34-game hitting streak, Uggla batted only .233.  That is probably the last time we will see such a low average from a 30-game hit streak player.  But as stated in the McCann argument, the Braves offense would be near incompetent without Uggla.  The Braves don't really have any other dynamic power hitters, as other pieces like Martin Prado, Chipper Jones, Freddie Freeman and Alex Gonzalez really only have power as an extra bonus to their hitting-for-average skills.  It took Uggla a long time to get going in 2011, but the power was there and kept them afloat in the NL East.

3B Chipper Jones, ATL
In another position smashed by injury, David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman both missed significant time.  Jones, in his age 39 season, is a shadow of the player he once was, which is quite depressing to be honest.  Jones has his job for as long as he wants it out of respect from the Braves, but his offensive skills are limited.  Just 18 homers and 70 RBIs came off his bat in 2011, but he's obviously still a team leader and loved by his fans.  Competition: David Wright (NYM), Ryan Zimmerman (WAS), Greg Dobbs (FLA), Placido Polanco (PHI).

SS Jose Reyes, NYM
Unfortunately, Reyes' season ended in controversy when he got a bunt single in the last game of the season and took himself out of the lineup in the last game of the season to ensure the greatest chance at a batting title. Ryan Braun failed to do the impossible, and Reyes won the first batting title in Mets history.  A return to the Mets looks far fetched, so Reyes is sure to cash in big soon.  Most impressive?  In 586 plate appearances, he walked 43 times and struck out 41 times, an 86% contact rate!  Competition: Ian Desmond (WAS), Hanley Ramirez (FLA), Jimmy Rollins (PHI), and Alex Gonzalez (ATL).

LF Logan Morrison, FLA
Lo-Mo finally was disciplined for his Twitter tendencies in 2011, and his relationship with the front office is unclear.  Morrison was sent to the minors temporarily for bad off-field conduct (specifically, Twitterness) and promptly filed a grievance with the players association.  Trade rumors involving the budding star heated up, but he was a runway model for the Marlins' new uniforms presentation at the new ballpark, confirming his status as an integral part of the team core.  The ever-changing Marlins roster doesn't have much of an established core outside of Hanley Ramirez, but I still believe Lo-Mo will definitely be a Miami Marlin next season.  Competition: Jason Bay (NYM), Raul Ibanez (PHI), Martin Prado (ATL), and Laynce Nix (WAS).

CF Angel Pagan, NYM (2nd)
He doesn't bat as well or walk as much as the ideal leadoff man, but Pagan does a fine job in center field for the Mets.  After being superb defensively in 2010, Pagan really struggled in 2011 at times.  However, 32 steals got the job done in his role behind Reyes.  He serves as a fine table setter at a relatively cheap price.  He's never going to be an All-Star but he fits this team fine.  And finally, his speed role will be magnified with the departure of Reyes next season.  Competition: Shane Victorino (PHI), Chris Coghlan (FLA), Nate McLouth (ATL), and Rick Ankiel (WAS).

RF Mike Stanton, FLA (2nd)
Stanton's home runs soar higher than the voices of the Marlins TV announcers (which is hard to do) with great regularity.  The 21-year-old has all the looks of a major power hitter for years to come.  The Marlins are currently being aggressive in the free agent market for the first time in their history, but if they plan to win, they'll need Stanton, who is already an elite outfielder.  And fantasy draftee.  Competition: Jason Heyward (ATL), Hunter Pence (PHI), Carlos Beltran (NYM), and Jayson Werth (WAS).

SP Roy Halladay, PHI
Dealing with a loss of confidence at the plate?  This Doc won't help with that.  Roy Halladay was the best of three Phillies starters with ERAs below 3.00 and decreased his homer total from 24 to 10.  He threw eight complete games and one shutout with the lowest ERA of his career at 2.35.  Even with ridiculous stamina and decent run support, Halladay failed to win 20 games which could even be seen as a surprise.  However, starting pitcher wins are overrated.  Bottom line: Halladay's a beast for the time being.  Competition: Anibal Sanchez (FLA), R.A. Dickey (NYM), Tim Hudson (ATL), and John Lannan (WAS).

CP Craig Kimbrel, ATL
127 strikeouts.  In 77 innings.  In his first full season as closer, Kimbrel was the best at the position in MLB.  As I've said in earlier posts, Kimbrel didn't allow a run for a stretch of about two and a half months in the middle of summer and only allowed three homers all year.  The Braves have the best bullpen in MLB and actually have three options at closer in Eric O'Flaherty, Jonny Venters, and Kimbrel.  The chances are that any of the three of them would have been the best in the league no matter who was chosen as closer.  For 2011, though, Kimbrel was the best in the business in talent.  Somehow, however, he blew eight saves along the way and the biggest one of the season, the one that would've gotten them to a Wild Card tiebreaker.  Three blown saves in September helped the Braves collapse hard.  Competition: Francisco Rodriguez (NYM), Ryan Madson (PHI), Juan Oviedo (FLA), and Drew Storen (WAS).

The 2011 All-Division Team, Part 1: AL East

Jose Bautista highlights a stacked division yet again.

Part 1 of 6: American League East

Here again for the second year in a row is the Cubs Insider All-Division Team, back for 2011.  This year the posts will be divided into six; one for each division, going East to West in both leagues.  In this first installment of my ramblings, I'll be going over the best (most valuable to his team's season performance) of the Orioles, Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, and Red Sox by position.  Runners-up are listed in no particular order and any player who has won the award again after winning it last season is noted as such.

C Matt Wieters, BAL
After 2010 award winner John Buck departed Toronto for Florida last offseason and Jorge Posada was effectively benched indefinitely from the Yankees' signing of Russell Martin, there was not a clear favorite to take the throne in this division.  In his third season, Wieters blossomed at age 25, earning his first trip to the All-Star Game and capping off another forgettable Orioles season with a little hardware for himself, his first Gold Glove award.  A 4.0 WAR and 22 homers don't hurt either, and a notably decreased strikeout rate (which was already low to begin with) show that these probably won't be the last of awards for the South Carolina native.  Competition: Kelly Shoppach (TB), Russell Martin (NYY), J.P. Arencibia (TOR), Jarrod Saltamacchia (BOS).

1B Adrian Gonzalez, BOS (2nd, first with Red Sox)
A-Gon narrowly had the best season of his career despite playing in a drastically better lineup in 2011 than ever before.  That speaks to Gonzalez's consistency no matter who his teammates are, whether they're on base or not.  The fact is Gonzalez was an excellent fit for the Red Sox with his opposite-field power for the Green Monster and he proved it with an All-Star selection, Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger.  There's certainly talent at the position in the division with Mark Teixeira blasting 39 homers in the Bronx and Adam Lind holding his own north of the border, but Gonzalez fit right in with the established Red Sox core and got them deep into the playoffs.  Competition: Casey Kotchman (TB), Mark Teixeira (NYY), Adam Lind (TOR), Derrek Lee (BAL).

2B Robinson Cano, NYY (2nd)
Critics will argue that Dustin Pedroia's combination of power and speed both contributed more to the Red Sox, but I make the argument that if Pedroia goes down for a month in the regular season, I see the Red Sox surviving in the standings more than I do if the Yankees were to lose Cano.  On an aging team where Cano is one of only three starters under 30, Cano is great lineup protection for Teixeira, especially this season as Alex Rodriguez had a dismal year.  Competition: Ben Zobrist (TB), Dustin Pedroia (BOS), Robert Andino (BAL), Aaron Hill (TOR).

3B Evan Longoria, TB 
In a group with Mark Reynolds, Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis, and Longoria, I would have thought this running would come down to the wire.  Instead, this choice was rather easy.  Despite a .244 batting average, Longoria's OBP that's over 100 points higher and 31 home runs helped him win the running.  Besides, he'll always be remembered this season for one of the biggest hits of the year, the walk-off homer against the Yankees to win the AL Wild Card away from the Red Sox.  Competition: Kevin Youkilis (BOS), Alex Rodriguez (NYY), Mark Reynolds (BAL), and Brett Lawrie (TOR).

J.J. Hardy's career is back in
full swing (pun intended).

SS J.J. Hardy, BAL
Perhaps Hardy has found a permanent home on his third team in as many years, as a breakout season saw consistent power throughout on his way to an incredible 30 home runs from the shortstop.  I want to believe it isn't a fluke, and I have confidence that it is not.  But no matter how the Orioles were doing this season, Hardy was the team MVP in being a model power hitter; never great at getting on base, but a decent contact hitter and defender nonetheless.  Competition: Derek Jeter (NYY), Marco Scutaro (BOS), Reid Brignac (TB), and Yunel Escobar (TOR).

LF Sam Fuld, TB
'Super Sam' walked onto a weak field of incumbents by taking left field in 2011.  Early on the season, however, Fuld made a real impact on the Rays.  Despite getting nearly a full season's worth of at-bats, his defensive WAR exceeded his offensive WAR.  Making highlight reel catches and clutch hits on a daily basis, the scrappy little former Cub even inspired a Super Sam cape promotion at Tropicana Field.  Competition: Nolan Reimold (BAL), Brett Gardner (NYY), Carl Crawford (BOS), Eric Thames (TOR).

CF Curtis Granderson, NYY
I didn't think it was possible, but my man Curtis failed to get enough love in the MVP consideration, finishing only fourth in voting after a 40-25 season as a by-product of his revamped swing built with Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long in late 2010.  Granderson did have the benefits of the insanely short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium and good lineup protection, but brought a swagger-factor to the 2011 Yanks.  Oh, and led MLB in runs scored, proving that the Grandy Man Can.  Competition: Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS), Adam Jones (BAL), Rajai Davis (TOR), and B.J. Upton (TB).

RF Jose Bautista, TOR (2nd)
Was there really any doubt?  Joey Bats finished off his second season in out-of-nowhere stardom much like he did his first.  Bautista added 43 homers to his stat sheet like it was no big deal.  Most impressive to me, however, is his 132 walks to 111 strikeouts, resulting in an OBP of .447, nearly 150 points higher than his batting average!  Regardless of being a big slugger who often gets pitched around, 132 walks is a thing of beauty.  And after the Black Blue Jays ended another spending-October-on-the-couch season, he got to play dress up to display the Jays new threads.  Competition: Matt Joyce (TB), Nick Swisher (NYY), Nick Markakis (BAL), and J.D. Drew (BOS).

DH David Ortiz, BOS
If the designated hitter's role is known as a low on-base, high power and strikeout batter, which it often has been, then Ortiz is the anti-DH.  Getting on base nearly 40% of the time, Big Papi's late career demise of 2008 and 2009 has recovered to the extent that Ortiz is still a very smart hitter who knows how to take a few pitches.  He does strike out plenty walked nearly as much in 2011, and a new team could replenish his systems after the bad spiral the Sawks' season took.  Competition: Jorge Posada (NYY), Vladimir Guerrero (BAL), Johnny Damon (TB), and Edwin Encarnacion (TOR).

SP Ricky Romero, TOR
Yet another interesting piece the Jays have found, this 26-year-old Los Angeles native completed his third season in the big leagues and already is the definite ace of his team.  Romero doesn't give up many hits, just walks and strikeouts mostly.  Ironically, his 2.92 ERA and 15 wins were the 'stuff' of aces, and yet his 26 homers allowed wouldn't suggest an ace and was 11 more than the year before.  This kid has a lot of good years to come however.  Honorable mention to James Shields, who made this decision extremely tough.  Competition: C.C. Sabathia (NYY), Josh Beckett (BOS), and James Shields (TB), and Jeremy Guthrie (BAL).  

CP Mariano Rivera, NYY
'Mo', now 41-years-old, just struck out 60 and walked eight in 2011.  If that doesn't tell you all you need to know, maybe his .897 WHIP or his 1.91 ERA will.  Rivera is still the best at the position in the league and might as well pitch himself to the grave.  I hate the thought of handing double-digit millions to closers, but Rivera is the exception to the rule.  Just unbelievable.  Competition: Kevin Gregg (BAL), Kyle Farnsworth (TB), Jonathan Papelbon (BOS), Frank Francisco (TOR).

Well that's all I have for now.  Back with more soon.  I hope everyone is having a nice holiday weekend!

Cubs Name Dale Sveum Manager, Beat Red Sox Again

New Cubs manager Dale Sveum

Free agency bidding wars have hardly begun, and yet the Cubs have already stolen two key role players from the Boston Red Sox.  Obviously the first was Theo Epstein in a dramatic move between historic franchises, and the second was Dale Sveum, hired as the 52nd manager in Cubs history.  Technically Sveum never got the manager's job in Boston and hadn't even been offered the job - yet - but the Cubs made the aggressive move at the right time to get him.

Just a few hours after the Red Sox said they were getting close with Sveum, the Cubs officially offered him the job.  Sveum allowed time for the Red Sox to counter but ultimately took the Cubs job, which will have him manage the Cubs for at least three years.  His only other major league managing experience came with the Brewers in 2008, a team that won the wild card.  Sveum replaced Ned Yost with only 12 games to go in the season because the Brewers were scuffling terribly in September and Milwaukee needed a fall guy.  I don't think it's fair to judge him on his 7-5 record from that nor their three games to one disposal from the NLDS by the Phillies.  So even though Sveum was the only candidate with previous Major League managerial experience, it's hard to call 16 total games much experience.

Like I've said before and often do, I'm not going to pretend I know a bunch of stuff you don't about Sveum and how his tendencies to do this or that will affect the clubhouse.  I like what I see and hear from others who have spoken in recommendation of him, however.  I kept hearing about he's a big believer in each player being responsible for fulfilling their duty as being part of the team, and he talked about that a lot in his introductory press conference.  He specifically used the word 'accountable' a few times, in the context of players being accountable for running out ground balls and playing a full nine innings.  According to his recommendations, he's not going to have any problems doing that as he will get players to run out grounders or not play them.

He may not seem like the type (I didn't think so), but according to an analyst on MLB Network, Sveum is actually a 'new-school' type, sabermetrics believer manager.  That definitely can't be a bad thing for the Cubs, but it probably was the deciding factor in whether or not Theo & Co. gave him the job or not.  Theo and Jed Hoyer wanted a guy who would buy into their system and found one.

From what I can tell, I like the move.  Obviously Mike Quade was not going to be the guy who would lead this team to accountability, and the Cubs have a lot of holes to fill before they do.  Their chances are increased by Sveum, though, and that was shown in the press conference.  He didn't make any bold predictions or crack-the-whip clichés but that's not what the Cubs and fans should want.  Gone are the days of the Cubs hiring the 'celebrity manager' which they did in Dusty Baker and Lou Piniella, both of whom were already storied managers in the Majors and had won a World Series as manager.


In this current era of a few years we're in, there is a lot of manager turnover, as we've seen some of the most legendary of skippers call it quits.  Tony La Russa, Bobby Cox, and Joe Torre, ranked third through fifth on the all-time managerial wins list, have all retired in the last 14 months.  Even Lou Piniella, ranked 14th, is out for good.  In are the days of the young, former player, sabermetric-believer in shape guy.  That fits the description of Sveum pretty well.  


I think he'll do well.  I was told he wasn't going to be a rah-rah guy who ignites the clubhouse positively, but rather a more reserved, do-your-job-the-right-way-and-I'll-respect-you kind of manager, oddly similar to Lovie Smith.  If there's one thing for sure, it's that this was a move that needed to be made.  Quade completely lost the clubhouse down the stretch because he failed to assess the team for what it was.  Sveum will not take that.  And for the record, it's pronounced 'sWEHM' (no, you weren't the only one who struggled with that).   

Managerial Search Rolls On

Mike Quade's firing was not really a surprise to anyone.  I was really surprised, however, on how little media coverage there was of it.  Of course it made the afternoon SportsCenter and was one of the top baseball topics of the day, but there wasn't a backlash of defense or arguments sparked by those coming to his defense.  Not that I would defend him either, but it was really a shock at how quickly Cubs Nation was willing to dismiss him.

I think much of that is Quade's own fault.  There are managers that show more confidence in his team than is actually there, and then there's the delusional Quade.  Even when the Cubs were well under .500 and about the be swept by the first-place Brewers, Quade declared that the Cubs were still in the race in July.  The Cubs hadn't been in the race since April.  He refused to examine his team for what it was and never seemed to understand how lost his team looked on the field for most of the season.  Maybe he thought remarkable optimism would help him frame a case to keep his job for 2012.  It seems to have done the opposite in addition to making him look like an idiot.

Too many times I found myself wondering what Jeff Baker was doing in the cleanup spot (regardless of lefty-righty matchups) or why Quade barely made an effort to get minor leaguers on the field in September on a team well out of the race.  Isn't that the idea behind September roster expansion?  Not for Quade anyway, who still started Carlos Pena most of the way so he could have a chance at hitting 30 homers on the season.  Really?  We're playing for stats now?  If Starlin Castro was in pursuit of .300, I would understand.  But 30 homers isn't a huge deal.

Thankfully, relief is coming.  The highly-publicized candidates include Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin, Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux, Brewers bench coach Dale Sveum, former catcher Sandy Alomar Jr., and a few write-ins.  Maddux and Sveum have been the favorites for the past week or so, but Mackinan and Alomar Jr. have both worked their way into the conversation.

It's really hard to project manager performance.  They don't come with statistics (which can be broken down into sabermetrics).  Their main judgment?  Wins and losses.  Sometimes, however, managers rally the team to more wins and sometimes teams win despite their manager.  It's hard for the public to tell because we only hear what the media or player twitter pages report.  So therefore I will infer my preferred choice for Cubs manager but won't pretend I know what he'll do for the players.

I want to see Maddux as manager.  He most definitely had a role in turning around a decade of pitching futility in Texas and that's exactly what we want; a role-player.  If Maddux can get his pitchers to make adjustments and be successful, he can do it for the rest of the team in their own ways.  Plus, Maddux just pulled out of the Red Sox candidacy which nearly doubles the Cubs' odds of landing him.  This would create a unique possibility.  What if Mike Maddux were manager and Greg Maddux were pitching coach?  There has been some buzz that Greg might eventually want to take a coaching role with the Cubs, but it won't be for 2012.  Greg needs some family time first.

I see Sveum going to the Red Sox and Terry Francona to the Cardinals.  Francona would be a bad hire for the Cubs.  I don't see him turning things around in the same way he did for the Red Sox curse.  Theo Epstein and Francona would have one of the most awkward relationships ever, and Epstein played a role in Francona's firing only to jump ship himself for the Cubs.  Having to work over a man who just endured the Boston smear campaign (including the beer-and-fried-chicken-in-the-clubhouse controversies) would not be a good move for a Cubs team trying to rebuild a mainstay manager here for the full cycle of rebuilding.

The Cubs will most definitely name their new manager within two weeks, if not one.  Hopefully it'll be Maddux, but who knows.  Getting a manager is just the first on the long to-do list for the offseason.  More importantly, Theo & Co. need a team to put on the field.

400-Foot Fly Outs No More

The 'Black Monster' of Citi Field will be obsolete
in 2012, replaced by a Mets-blue wall closer
to home plate and half the height.

The Mets are making the right call in moving in Citi Field's fences; it's time for the Padres to do the same at Petco Park


Citi Field's fences will be dramatically shorter and close to the plate in 2012.  After three years of far too many 400-foot flyouts, the Mets will abandon the 16-foot wall in left and place an 8-foot wall in front of it.  The weird indentations in the outfield walls in right field will be smoothed over, too, and those walls will be dramatically shortened.  And in a move that will make the park a whole lot less depressing looking even when the Mets lose, as they seem to do inevitably now, the wall will be painted blue all the way around.

According to the Mets, the adjustments reduce the in-play surface area of the field by two percent, a notable figure for a ballpark.  When ESPN reached David Wright for comment, he told them that he'd be lying if he told anyone he enjoyed hitting at Citi Field.  He seemed pleased with the changes, but he's probably been anticipating them for some time.  He hasn't been the first to criticize the overly-spacious new park.  Even I became frustrated with the walls when playing a Mets franchise on MLB 10: The Show.  It was awfully hard to get anything over those walls, much less a David Wright fly ball.  Plus, this provides the Mets with new revenue opportunities.  What's not to like?

Citi Field's dimensions are changing
for nearly the entire outfield.

Is there really a need to drastically change the playing conditions so much?  Yes.  No doubt.  In 2011, Citi Field only gave up 1.33 total home runs per game, third-least in MLB behind only Petco Park and AT&T Park.  The face of the franchise, Wright, hit 50 home runs at Shea Stadium combined from 2006-08.  In his first three years at Citi Field, however, he has only hit 22, including only five to the opposite field.

In 2008, playing half their games at Shea Stadium, the Mets hit 172 home runs as a team., good for a respectable 14th place in MLB.  In 2009, playing half their games at Citi Field, they hit 95.  Carlos Delgado or no Carlos Delgado, teams just don't do that.  Teams don't see their home run total cut in half from one year to the next.  As nice as Citi Field has been for the fans, power hitters have yet to catch a break in the cavernous stadium.  In fact, no left-handed hitter has ever hit an opposite-field home run there.  No home run from any hitter has ever hit the apple in straight center, nor has one hit the tarp to the left of it or even the first section of seats there.

Citi Field's new and old dimensions.

Not only will the new wall eliminate all of the weird angles and corners in right field, it gives the ballpark a better feel.  Citi Field is the only park in MLB in which the home run poles and line are not yellow.  At Citi Field they are orange, but with the black walls that looks really ugly.  The Mets have been a disappointing and somewhat depressing team the last three seasons.  Even when fans did show up there was little excitement.  The wall in left is a Black (or soot, depending on how you view the color) Monster - a take on Fenway's Green Monster - except that it's not like 10 feet from home plate like its green counterpart.  That is the wall of which no lefty has ever hit a homer over.  Looking at the field diagram above, it might not look like much, but that change makes a world of difference.

Give it up for Cameron Maybin, who
led all 2011 full-season Padres with
an underwhelming nine homers.

Now in case study number two, the San Diego Padres hit only 91 home runs in 2011, worst in MLB and the lowest single-season total by any team in over a decade.  Their home ballpark, Petco Park, only allowed a combined 1.23 home runs per game, second lowest in MLB behind only AT&T Park.  Of the 100 home runs hit there, only 42 were hit by the Padres.  This means the Padres hit seven more homers on the road than at home, and they won more games on the road than they did at home.  Basically, their home field advantage was nullified.

Since Petco Park opened in 2004, the organization has prided itself on creating contenders based on pitching and defense.  They did steal the most bases in MLB with a second-best 79% success rate, and their pitching staff had the third best ERA of the 30 teams, but clearly the formula didn't work as the Padres finished at 71-91.  The team was led in home runs by Ryan Ludwick, who was traded to Pittsburgh midseason.  Of full-season players, Cameron Maybin led the group with nine (but only two at home)!

Granted, the Padres currently aren't a team built for power.  When they moved into Petco, however, there were a couple guys not quite as bashful (pun intended) as the rest of the team.  Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin had made nice livings as power hitters at Qualcomm Stadium before both saw decreases in power numbers upon moving.  Klesko especially struggled with the new digs, hitting only three homers at Petco in '04 after 21 total the year before.  No matter how a team is constructed, however, no team in this day and age will ever make the playoffs without hitting 100 home runs in an 162-game schedule.  Even hitting 120 would be a stretch.

Petco Park: Although the field is too big,
it's a shrine of a baseball stadium.

I believe I have made a compelling case.  As you can see in the photo, the park has a very modern style.  The dimensions, however, are kind of old school, and this park probably was the one that started the over-obsessive pitchers'-park-dimensions-in-new-stadiums fad, which has been copied by Target Field, Citi Field, and more.

From the fan's perspective, however, it is an excellent ballpark.  Besides Wrigley, it's my favorite place to see a baseball game, and I've only been there once.  It's the only ballpark in the league that allows the baseball fan to satisfy his or her play-in-a-sandbox cravings, which he or she can do in front of the right field bleachers.  But if 'the beach' were expanded a bit in right (which would move the fences in), home games would feel even more like a sunny day at the beach for fans of the team with ocean waves on its home jersey.

What if Petco Park looked like this (proposal in blue)?

To put this plan into motion, I've created a prototype dimension blueprint.  The black line with red numbers represents Petco Park's current dimensions and the blue line with blue numbers represents the proposed design.  It may not seem like much, but this move would drastically change the way the ballpark plays.  It wouldn't just become a neutral park; it would be a hitters' park.  I don't have a problem with that, and neither should the Padres.  After all, in runs scored, they've finished in the bottom six of the 16 NL teams six of the eight years they've been playing at Petco.

This is the first time I've ever created something like this.  However, I don't see the Padres ownership doing anything like it.  It would could be completed in one offseason but would require construction costs.  However, they could add more seats which would create more revenue, so the project would actually pay for itself eventually.

From a playing field standpoint, though, this is a necessary move.  The Padres are a small-market team that builds from within, so they boast good young arms in the rotation and bullpen.  In 2010 the Padres had the best bullpen in MLB.  But they're getting help from these obnoxious dimensions, and far too much of it.

If the Padres ever want a competent and balanced offense that can keep up with its pitching staff and not have win games 3-2 all the time, they're going to have to do something about the dimensions.  With all the extra room in the power alleys, it's no coincidence the Padres led the league in triples this season (the Mets were 4th).  They're going to have to recognize the issue for what it is, an issue, and act.  That's what the Mets have done, and the improvement will be seen next season.  I hope someday soon we'll never see another 400-foot fly out in either of these parks.    

  

Theo-cracy 2.0

Tom Ricketts introduced Theo Epstein, new President
of Baseball Operations, to the media last week.

Hopefully, a new era has arrived with the introduction of Theo Epstein as President of Baseball Operations, Jed Hoyer as General Manager, and Jason McLeod in some role in player development.  Epstein was formally introduced at a press conference on October 25 while Hoyer and McLeod will get theirs tomorrow.  I hope this means new philosophy with a solid gameplan in the Cubs front office, because for the last two years really, it seemed as if there was an argument going on between staff in favor of rebuilding and staff in favor of trying to win now, and the roster moves the Cubs made were a mix of both.  For example, trading Derrek Lee in August 2010 favored rebuilding, while trading some of the organization's top prospects for Matt Garza favored winning now.  The inconsistencies start at ownership.

I remember this part well; when Tom Ricketts was taking criticism for having a business man in Crane Kenney as President instead of a 'baseball guy' (as in a man with a scouting background who actively is overseeing player development and other staff in the organization), Ricketts replied that he doesn't need a 'baseball guy' to watch his other 'baseball guy' (talking about GM Jim Hendry).  However, Ricketts said in the Epstein press conference that Epstein had been a target to be the architect of the organization from the day Hendry stepped down.  Apparently a 'baseball guy' comes in handy, as one should.  The role of President of a baseball franchise is not to sell hot dogs and suite packages to corporations, it's to oversee all the player personnel and development staff, including the entire front office and all the players.  Kenney hardly did the second part at all.

Ronnie Woo-Woo approves.

The public's reaction to Epstein here in Chicago has honestly been stunning.  I don't really think that's a good thing, though.  If this is a true theo-cracy, then there Theo must be the deity at the center of it all.  So far, everyone in Chicago has tabbed Epstein as the savior of the Cubs organization, and surely there's no way the Cubs won't win a World Series now.  See how far that kind of thinking has gotten us?  Come on guys.

Theo-cracy 1.0, the Red Sox version, was revolutionary because it found value (or lack thereof) in players for specific traits or abilities, so as to maximize the baseball capabilities of the 25-man roster, just like Billy Beane did in Oakland.  However, Theo-cracy 1.0 was performed on a much bigger stage; Red Sox Nation, desperate for a World Series title for the first time in a Cub-like number of years.

Theo was not without seemingly random occurrences of luck.  How could he have predicted that a slow, bad-fielding first baseman-turned-DH from Minnesota, whose career high in homers was 20 in 2002, would turn into the AL home run king with 54 just four years later?  Also, it wasn't like he was taking over a bad team.  The Red Sox had put together playoff teams in 1995, 1998, 1999, and won 93 games in 2002.  He inherited Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Trot Nixon, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Lowe, and Pedro Martinez, six established stars on a good team.  On the Cubs, however, there is nowhere near as much star power.

In other news, the wall advertising behind Epstein during
his press conferences will no longer be the Red Sox'
signature visually-appealing Dunkin Donuts logo.

The only stars the Cubs have right now are Starlin Castro and Matt Garza.  After that, questions arise everywhere, whether it be inconsistency from Geovany Soto or Ryan Dempster or who will even start at the corners of the infield next season.  This is exactly why Theo is no savior; this is by far a harder challenge than his first in Boston.

Hoyer and McLeod, on the other hand, were just minions of Epstein back in the day.  The two took what they learned to San Diego, where Hoyer became GM in 2010 and McLeod joined the front office.  Together, they helped revamp the Padres' scouting and development system.  Partially as a result, Baseball America ranked the Padres' organizational talent eighth in MLB.  Now Hoyer and McLeod are reunited with their mentor, and I think the result will be one of the most unique decision-making forces around.

While the roles of GM and President of Baseball Operations are not interchangeable, they have their similarities.  While GM used to be the only job that seemed to matter to construct a ballclub, things appear to be changing.  When the media asked former Phillies and Blue Jays GM Pat Gillick about the Cubs' vacancy, he replied that he longer wanted to be a GM, but rather a President of Baseball Operations.

An action shot of Theo starring the ivy
in a rarely-seen autumn color scheme.

A President of Baseball Operations does exactly what it sounds like; he is the top authority in charge of everything in the Cubs organization relating to the actual team put out on the field, which means he has power over the GM and anyone else in the front office.  It appears to be a most desirable position these days.  Epstein saw the benefits and abandoned ship with the Red Sox to get it with the Cubs.  So even though Hoyer will be making the day-to-day moves like roster call-ups or arbitration negotiations, Epstein will be the key architect of the team, the big-picture guy.  McLeod, scouting director Tim Wilken and VP of Player Personnel Oneri Fleita will be shuffling minor leaguers and crunching numbers to help build the future.  I therefore think it's kind of ironic that everyone is calling Epstein the savior while the Cubs front office will be more of a team effort than it ever has been.

Even though Epstein can't play third or first base, outfield, or a #5 starting pitcher (or a #4 or #3, for that matter), his presence on the team will be felt in the next few years.  He's no savior, but he and his delegation of executives will get the team to start playing better baseball one way or another.  Realistically, 2012 probably isn't the year, but I have high hopes for 2013.  As does Epstein.