2010-2011 Free Agency Predictions

The following players are the best of the best out there this offseason, the top free agents of the 2010-2011 Hot Stove.  Here are my predictions on where they go with a short explanation.  These predictions are very tough because when it comes right down to it any team with budget room has a shot to sign a guy, as I have learned from past experience (see: Matt Holliday, Athletics 2009 and Adam Dunn, Nationals 2009).  Well, these are my 'educated guesses'.  Free agents are ranked based off the list from mlbtraderumors.com's top 50 free agents, but the predictions and explanations are original Cubs Insider material.

1. Cliff Lee - Yankees.  It will be a serious upset if anyone but the Yankees gets one of the best starters in baseball in Lee.  Lee beat the Yankees twice in the ALCS in eliminating the Yankees on his way to the World Series, and if the Yankees get beat by a top player they are double as likely to get him the next offseason.

2. Carl Crawford - Tigers.  With a bunch of huge contracts (Magglio Ordonez, Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, etc.) coming off the books, the Tigers are revved up to spend big time dough.  Crawford is a great fit for the spacious gaps of Comerica Park making a great duo between him and Austin Jackson.  A Detroit team that appeared lifeless at times last year could use this spark plug.

3. Adrian Beltre - Angels.  The Angels are also looking to spend and will be in the Crawford sweepstakes, but this should be their top guy.  Beltre is coming off a tremendous season with the Red Sox and the Angels want a definite power bat in the middle of the order more than a bunch of aging but somewhat effective veterans (Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, Torii Hunter).

4. Jayson Werth - Red Sox.  The Red Sox have to make their annual splash, and the fan base craves a sturdy left fielder after a season with a revolving door in front of the Green Monster.  Nine players played in left field for Boston in 2010, and the Red Sox also love his power bat.

5. Adam Dunn - Cubs.  An admitted lover of hitting at Wrigley Field, the Cubs will need a power hitting lefty first baseman to contend in 2011.  The Tigers and White Sox will also be in competition for the veteran, but Dunn will end up with the Cubs for the first reason and also because of his past relationship with GM Jim Hendry, whom Dunn knows from their days in Cincinnati.

6. Victor Martinez - Tigers.  Detroit won't get Dunn, but still have a first baseman in Martinez.  This signing gives them lots of flexibility as they can use Martinez at either position or even rotate him, allowing the Tigers to start bench players and rookies and play the hot bat.  With Crawford, the Tigers will have impressively signed a power bat and leadoff guy, memo to the rest of the AL Central.

7. Rafael Soriano - White Sox.  The Angels are the favorite in this race, but the White Sox have lost almost all trust in Bobby Jenks are unlikely to want to have him as closer again.  GM Ken Williams always pulls off a few eye openers in the offseason, this being probably his biggest.  Williams, more often than not, gets his man.

8. Mariano Rivera - Yankees.  Tight race between the Yankees and Diamonbacks.  Yeah right.

9. Paul Konerko - White Sox.  The odds of him leaving are palpable and feasible, but he probably extended his Chicago career with his terrific comeback 2010 season.  Ripping 38 homers is enough to keep the great (owner) Jerry Reinsdorf-Konerko friendship alive.  If not the Sox, possibly the Angels or Diamondbacks.  Not joking this time.

10. Derek Jeter - Yankees.  See: Rivera, Mariano.  The Yankees are going to severely overpay for Jeter who is no longer an above average defender and earned another Gold Glove he doesn't deserve.  As the face of the Yankees franchise, there's pretty much no chance he will be playing anywhere but The House That Jeter Built (New Yankee Stadium) in 2011.

11. Hiroki Kuroda - Dodgers.  Kuroda could be an under the radar signing somewhere else, but the Dodgers like his durability and reliability.  For a team lacking in a true ace, Kuroda should be a solid middle rotation starter.

12. Jorge De La Rosa - Rockies.  A lefty middle rotation guy, he has some caution flags stuck on his shoulder, that being his control problems that have plagued him when has been ineffective.  Even when playing to his potential, he walks too many batters.  The kind of player rebuilding teams target, the Nationals, Royals, and Pirates have been linked to him as well.

13. Carl Pavano - Twins.  While the Twins still lack an ace since the departure of Johan Santana, Pavano, after pitching only 145.2 innings over 2005-2008 with the Yankees, has now pitched 420.1 innings over the past two seasons and is a workhorse.  The Twins need him as a key cog in that staff of mediocre to above average starters.

14. Jake Westbrook - Cardinals.  A low drama deal, the Cardinals will pay the man his money because they still need depth behind Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter.  Westbrook probably isn't the best they can do, but he's willing to come back and will take some innings.

15. Aubrey Huff - Giants.  2010's best bargain deal was Huff who hit 26 homers and led the Giants to the championship for only $3 million.  The Giants certainly won't want him to guy, they will get him back.

16. Juan Uribe - Mariners.  The historically terrible offense of the 2010 Seattle Mariners was an embarrassment to the franchise and GM Jack Zduriencik will make some moves.  Uribe seems like a logical pickup as current shortstop Josh Wilson doesn't hit well enough to start.  Uribe's 20 projected homers would be very welcome to Mariners fans.

17. Carlos Pena - Nationals.  A player to watch right here.  Pena couldn't even bat .200 in 2010 but still hit 28 homers.  With his stock taking a big hit with the low average, Pena could easily regain his status as one of the American League's best first basemen as he plays the field well and led the AL in homers with 39 in 2009.

18. Jim Thome - Twins.  For all Thome did for the Twins, he should be given one more year as the DH.  Worst case scenario, Thome ends up being traded at the deadline.

19. Vladimir Guerrero - Rangers.  Although the Rangers declined their $9 million option on Guerrero, they want him back.  Guerrero will likely have to take a pay cut if he stays with the Rangers, but he is inclined to stay while Texas is a winner.

20. Manny Ramirez - Athletics.  This may seem surprising, but it shouldn't be considering the man at the controls of the A's.  GM Billy Beane, known for his uncommon baseball wits and surprising signings, will bring in the bat.  Manny has more left in that bat than he showed with the White Sox, and a fresh start in his first small market since Cleveland should do him well.

21. Magglio Ordonez - Blue Jays.  As evidenced by their signing of Frank Thomas in 2007, the Jays are willing to roll the dice on veterans past their prime.  Playing half the season of 2010, he surprised many with the return of his power that escaped him in 2009.  His 37 year old bat seems to have plenty in it as he still hit .300 in 2010 for the 10th time in the last 12 seasons.  Expect a one or two year deal.

22. Orlando Hudson - Padres.  A free agent again, the O-Dog will end up in San Diego because of his positive attitude and veteran status among a very young team.  Hudson is very consistent and the Padres need to improve on their team batting average, something he can help the team with.

23. Derrek Lee - Brewers.  With Prince Fielder very likely to be traded, this trade would give Milwaukee an able bat to replace some of Fielder's production.  Lee can be picked up with a discount as his stock fell after a disappointing 2010.  The Orioles and Diamondbacks have also been mentioned.

24. Lance Berkman - Mariners.  It's no secret the Big Puma's bat has faded significantly.  He could provide a little value, though, as whatever he'll hit is most definitely better than whoever else the Mariners could start.  With Berkman, though, there are lots of teams that have a little interest; no front runners.

25. Andy Pettitte - Yankees.  Right now, he's playing the whole 'I need to be with my family' card but the truth is this guy is a true ballplayer and loves the game.  The Yankees would love to have him because amazingly he keeps returning and pitching well.  If he's not out there on a roster by Opening Day, I will be shocked.

26. Jon Garland - Orioles.  The front office might finally get something right and improve the effort to find talent outside of the organization while they have the opportunity.  Baltimore is a team that holds momentum this offseason with their strong finish under Buck Showalter, and this signing would go a long way towards taming the kids on the staff and transforming them into pitchers.  

27. A.J. Pierzynski - Red Sox.  Pierzynski was the favorite to join the Florida Marlins, but they picked the Red Sox's top option in John Buck.  The Red Sox will take Pierzynski instead, providing great insurance for Jason Varitek.  Pierzynski was quoted as saying the Red Sox, among a few other teams, "would all be good fits."

28. Miguel Olivo - Dodgers.  Whatever happened to Russell Martin, it sounds like the Dodgers have had with him.  Olivo is one of the best offensive catchers in baseball and plays in small, usually losing markets which is why he flies under the radar so much.  What a treat, now he gets to play for a contender.

29. John Buck - Marlins.  Speaking of early birds, the Marlins and Buck beat me to this post and agreed to a three year deal already earlier this week.  Buck was the huge favorite to land the Red Sox job, but instead takes Florida where he's the best catcher they have seen since Ivan Rodriguez.

30. Javier Vazquez - Nationals.  Vazquez would enjoy going back to the National League after another unsuccessful year with the Yankees.  He also expressed interest in the Nationals, so they have to be considered the favorite.  If they could get him, he would become the best pitcher in the history of the Nationals portion of the franchise.

31. Scott Downs - Yankees.  Playing for the Blue Jays, the Yankees have seen Downs a lot.  Thus increasing his chances of becoming one.  The race for Downs will go between the Red Sox and Yankees, but remember which team has seemingly unlimited resources.  Hint, not the Red Sox.

32. J.J. Putz - Dodgers.  After having a mid career crisis with the Mets that included injuries, Putz has gotten his stuff back.  The Dodgers use their bullpen more than almost every team in the league and those cannot go to George Sherrill again, whose 6.69 ERA was surprising and just terrible.  Putz should replace him behind Jonathan Broxton, or replace him in the event of another period of struggle for Broxton.

33. Brian Fuentes - Braves.  Atlanta already has a great bullpen, but they could use a veteran to close games and need a closer after the retirement of Billy Wagner.  Fuentes blows more than a few saves, but thankfully they have the depth to cover the void.

34. Adam LaRoche - Orioles.  Much like Olivo, LaRoche usually is playing on losing and/or small market teams and isn't talked about much.  His value is real, however, and he is drawing interest from Orioles, Brewers, Cubs, Giants, and Diamondbacks just to name a few.

35. Hisanori Takahashi - Phillies.  Another under the radar pitcher, Takahashi could start for the Phillies if they want him to.  The Phillies like his flexibility, but so do the Nationals, Orioles, and Mariners.

36. Pat Burrell - Braves.  The Giants, unlike the Rays, saw that Burrell can still hit.  They also saw he still can't run or field.  The Braves outfield was a weakness last season but the addition of Burrell, along with the move of Martin Prado, could make it better.  The Padres need a slugger though, and so do the Mariners.

37. Joaquin Benoit - Rays.  The Rays are in serious trouble as their top six relievers are free agents.  If the Rays could bring back one of them, however, it probably would be Benoit who was unhittable in 2010.  Interest is not lacking by any means, the Tigers, Red Sox, and Yankees all want him and the Rays will need a great offer to compete with the bigger market teams.

38. Kevin Millwood - Brewers.  The Brewers are constantly on the hunt for pitching and the signing of Randy Wolf last offseason didn't go as well as planned.  Millwood is just the kind of pitcher the Brewers would sign, a veteran whose price tag is cut because of his struggles in Baltimore and a bad contract in Texas.  The Royals, Mariners, Pirates, and Padres are four teams that also want him, but only one is a contender and with all these offers Millwood can probably choose where he wants to go.

39. Kevin Correia - Pirates.  Pittsburgh has no pitching pretty much, and although Correia's 4.57 career ERA hardly makes him a dependable veteran, he's better than nothing.  Correia could be a good #5 starter on a good team, although the odds of a good team spending money in free agency on a #5 starter is unlikely.  The Pirates need anyone to help Paul Maholm in the rotation.

40. Arthur Rhodes - Reds.  As long as he is pitching well, there's no reason for the Reds to deny the 41 year old reliever.  The Reds need the bullpen stacked with guys who can pitch around Aroldis Chapman, their top reliever who threw the fastest pitch in history in 2010.  Many teams could use the lefty, the Phillies being one, but the Reds are the most likely to keep him.


        

Bonds Era Over, Franchise Moves On

Unlike the Texas Rangers, pitching has been a big strength of the Giants when they've been good, specifically early in the 2000s.  In 2000 the team ranked 4th in Major League Baseball in ERA, followed by 11th in 2001, 2nd in 2002, and 3rd in 2003.  Those teams were powerhouses led by Russ Ortiz, Jason Schmidt, Kurk Rueter, Robb Nen, Jeff Kent, Benito Santiago, Reggie Sanders, and of course, Barry Bonds.  This era was great in its prime, with the Giants winning 483 games in five years between 2000 and 2004, but then it ended ugly as Jeff Kent signed with the Dodgers after 2002, Nen never played in another major league game after 2002, and only two years later from 2002 to 2004 only two starting position players remained, right fielder Bonds and first baseman J.T. Snow.  The majority of the middle of the 2000s for the Giants was disappointing and bad baseball, before they showed signs of hope in 2009.  The middle of the 2000s was dominated by Barry Bonds, but the team didn't do much else well.  The team didn't have a true ace during this time fielding a staff of mediocre starters like Jason Schmidt, Noah Lowry, Matt Morris, and a formerly mediocre Matt Cain.  The bullpen also had issues as Tyler Walker led the 2005 club with only 23 saves, Armando Benitez led in 2006 with only 17, and Brad Hennessey led in 2007 with only 19.  Even in 2004, when the team won 91 games just missing the playoffs, the leader was Matt Herges with 23.  With Tim Worrell saving 38 in 2003 and Nen getting 43 the year before that, very few teams can say their saves leader changed six years in a row.  In 2008, their dependence on the just retired Bonds showed as Bengie Molina led the team with only 16 homers and Matt Cain, owner of a good 3.76 ERA that year, finished 8-14 with little run support.  The fact that Tim Lincecum won 18 on his way to his first NL Cy Young award is amazing, and playing on a better offensive team Lincecum could've won upwards of 20, 21, 22, somewhere up there.

Progress was made in 2009 as the team won 88 games missing the playoffs but showing significant signs of improvement.  Pablo Sandoval became the first fan favorite on offense since Bonds hitting 25 homers and leading the offense.  The Giants led the league in strikeouts and the pitching overall was great.  This set the stage for 2010, when San Francisco put it all together.  Brian Wilson had another superb season saving 48 for the starters who were also very very good.  No Cy Young three-peat for Lincecum, but a great season nonetheless at 16-10.  Buster Posey fired up San Fran as a Rookie of the Year favorite and many surprisingly effective pickups like Juan Uribe and Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff hit stride to power the Giants to 697 runs, a lot for that franchise recently.  They allowed a ridiculous 583 runs thanks to an unhittable bullpen of Sergio Romo, Wilson, Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt, and Ramon Ramirez and the rotation of Lincecum, Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner, and Barry Zito all of whom who sub-4.00 ERAs except Zito.  The combination led to a winning team, a positive group of guys with no negative distractions like Bonds.  The cloud that hung over Bonds and steroid allegations made the club suffer the middle of the 2000s, but as we can see on the field last night and tonight, the San Francisco Giants franchise has moved on.  

Postseason Preview: World Series

After a one year absence, baseball fans will get their Cinderella team in the World Series again.  Actually, two.  Both the Giants and Rangers weren't given big consideration for the World Series heading into the playoffs, especially considering both were serious underdogs playing for the pennant against the Phillies and Yankees, respectively.  But for the media, the unthinkable has happened.  The 'Big Three' of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels has been beaten in a series nobody foresaw.  The invincible Yankees with their high priced bats and arms fell as the bats were silenced and the arms didn't silence anyone on the Rangers.

On to this World Series.  It will begin in San Francisco on Wednesday night, playing there again the next night before heading off to Texas for three games.  Unfortunately, the schedule just works out so that the Giants barely miss a home game on a Friday, which would have had them wear the orange uniforms in the World Series.  No team has worn an alternate uniform in the World Series since the 2007 Rockies, most teams elect not to for whatever reason.  The first game was a great pitching matchup of Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee, probably not much of a better matchup could be asked for.  The two combined have gone 47.1 innings allowing just seven runs and striking out 64 with six walks.  The key for Cliff Lee is to control the tempo of the game like he usually does and to cool down Cody Ross.  He barely walks anyone so he needs to stick to his gameplan with men on base to avoid a flurry of hits resulting in a momentum shift.  Such momentum shifts, especially in the World Series, often decide the game.  The key for Tim Lincecum is to stay ahead of hitters and beware of the bottom of the lineup.  With these Rangers there are no easy outs except when Cliff Lee will have to bat in Game 1.  Bengie Molina has been huge for Texas batting out of the eight hole so Lincecum needs to control the likes of him and Mitch Moreland, another bat in the bottom who has been hitting well so far in the playoffs at .389.  There is no big bat to be scared of on the Giants, but there are so many guys who can beat you slapping big hits like Freddy Sanchez, Aubrey Huff, Buster Posey, Juan Uribe, and Pablo Sandoval.

Here is my pick.  TEX in 7.  This one will be very back and forth, but here's the order of wins I have: Game 1 is Texas, Game 2 is San Francisco, Game 3 is San Francisco, Game 4 and Game 5 are Texas, Game 6 is San Francisco, and Game 7 is Texas.  Neither team is afraid to win on the road, with both teams combining to go 4-2 in New York and Philadelphia.  The series MVP I believe will be Josh Hamilton, but that is nearly impossible to guess.

I am in the process of making an article for both teams, about what uniqueness has gotten them here.  So come back to read that!

Note: Bengie Molina can't be too disappointed with being traded from a contender.  His former team, the Giants, plays his current team, the Rangers in this World Series.  He earns a World Series ring either way, so it's a literal win-win.  Of course, the ginger ale celebration with his Rangers would be nice, so there's a bonus to that side of the win-win.