Postseason Preview: LCS

So I got three of four series correct in the LDS.   The only one I got wrong was Phillies-Reds, and if I were to get one wrong that would be the one I would want because that was the long shot pick.  The League Championship Series on both sides should be exciting, but I have to admit my attention keeps veering over to the American League.  The Yankees are such a great team and do so much right, yet it's exactly a team like the Rangers that could beat them.  What the Rangers are doing right now is so incredible, and the fans have to be feeling it too.  The weird part is, the Rangers lost two games at home when they could've won the series only to take the finale in St. Petersburg, which wrapped up just a terrible home three game performance by the Rays.  It was the first time in postseason history a road team won every game.  Believe it or not, the Yankees and Rangers aren't all that separated when it comes to pitching.  The national media and MLB Network have mentioned that the Yankees should be glad that the ALDS went on so long for the Rangers, because now Cliff Lee won't start Game 1.  I see this differently.  I think it works out better for the Rangers, because in Game 1 Lee would be going against C.C. Sabathia and that is likely to be a low scoring game, and the Yankees have a better chance of beating Lee there which really hurts the Rangers chances.  It's C.J. Wilson starting Game 1, a 15-game winner whose 3.35 ERA is only 17 points worse than Sabathia's.  Anybody remember Sabathia's postseason struggles in 2007?  How about 2008?  2009 not so much, but it's hard to forget 20 ER in 19 IP with 17 walks and 27 hits over two seasons.  Wilson could easily pitch a good game and, with some run support, steal a win in the first one.  Phil Hughes went 18-8 but had an ERA nearly half a run higher than the less lucky run support recipient Colby Lewis at just 12-13.  That is pretty much an even matchup and could go either way.  Andy Pettitte goes in the third against Lee, and Pettitte's last season injuries may affect his performance.  Lee is on a serious hot streak and can't be stopped, here he gets the nod at home which he didn't have in either of his starts in the ALDS.  That is certainly a winnable game for the Texas Rangers.  They aren't afraid to win on the road.  With the increased intensity of the ALCS, I think the Rangers will also start winning at home now.  I'm going Rangers.  It's more realistic than it seems, as the Yankees will probably overlook them as Michigan would overlook Appalachian State (we all know how that turned out).  TEX in 6.

Over to Philly for Game 1 against San Fran.  Roy Halladay will not throw another no-hitter, and this time the Phillies need to realize their opponent has something the Reds didn't: momentum.  The Reds were sort of cruising along, clinched the title on a big homer then just relaxed until the playoffs.  The Giants are coming off this intense series with Atlanta and then it got emotional at the end with Bobby Cox.  All of this is why the Giants will be excited and setting up an offense against Halladay, if even just a bit.  Tim Lincecum was dominant his first start of the playoffs, and the Giants have a great shot to win if he does that again.  Jonathan Sanchez, not Matt Cain, goes in Game 2.  Interesting move by Bruce Bochy to save his #2 for Game 3 at home, which in my opinion is more important than Game 2 if the other team has home-field advantage.  The Phillies will likely go with Hamels and Oswalt in those spots, or possibly flipped.  I think it matters less to the series because the bottom line is both are real good pitchers.  Real good.  I like the Giants bullpen over the Phillies this season.  They have the setup men in place including a ridiculous run by Ramon Ramirez.  The always consistent Brian Wilson and Sergio Romo are the other two keys guys in play here.  The problem for me is, as much as I want the Giants to win, I know it's unlikely.  There is just too much to ignore with the pitching, and the chances the Giants escape and low scoring pitchers duel is unlikely because, despite the Phillies midseason offense struggles, they still swing the bat much, much better than the Giants.  Aubrey Huff and Buster Posey have all the power responsibility on their shoulders, and that's kind of a lot to ask for an above average vet and rookie.  Ryan Howard had one of the worst years of his career, which isn't saying much, and I think he will struggle in the series because of the power pitching mixed with the offspeed stuff.  With that heat the Giants have, it won't take much to smoke Howard.  Chase Utley is dangerous and pesky, while the definition of pesky is Shane Victorino.  The other offensive weapons in Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez, and Jimmy Rollins do many things right.  The Giants were also not afraid to win on the road, so home field advantage may be overrated this year (home teams went 8-12 in the LDS).  PHI in 5.

Note: Goodbye, Bobby Cox.  I'm not sure what to make of the Braves hiring Fredi Gonzalez that very next day, though.  A great hire, but I'm not sure about the timing.  It's like they were trying to quickly forget about him or something, when I believe now is when the Braves and fans should have some time to reflect on his accomplishments.  In Spring Training some experts said the Braves would manage one last playoff spot for Cox, and I didn't think they could do it.  Hat off to you, Atlanta.

Atlanta Starts New Era

Cub fans watching the Cubs' futile attempt at a season opener saw something that hasn't been seen for a long time: Atlanta as a baseball city.  Although the Atlanta Braves hat and the city abbreviation 'ATL' have become extremely popular in the rap and hip hop industry, the Braves and their fan base have been not so cool in recent years.  Turner Field can seat 54,357, behind only Yankee Stadium, but their attendance in 2009 was 15th at 29,304 a game.  Attendance has stayed below 34,000 a game every year since 2002.  Why did this happen?  I think it became fairly obvious.  Bobby Cox and the Braves marched to the playoffs 14 times in a row.  14 times!  However, they only got to five World Series, including none the last six years from 2000-2005.  They lost in the LDS the last four years, which grew frustrating for fans realizing their time as a winning team wouldn't last forever.  The last three of those LDS all included losing the win or go home Game 5 at home.

So what does this have to do with Opening Day 2010?  Here's my theory.  The Braves, rocketing into the 2003 playoffs with a 101-61 record and a lineup filled with all stars, met the Cubs in the first round.  The Braves were heavily, heavily favored against a Cubs team which still had issues the whole season and were a team that didn't seem like it was supposed to be there.  However, the Braves were surprised when the Cubs put up a good fight.  The Cubs even took a 2-1 lead in the series and the chance to move on at home, but the pitching of Russ Ortiz and a homer by Andruw Jones in Game 4 at Wrigley sent the series back to Turner Field.  Now, everything was favoring the Braves again to go play the upstart Marlins in the NLCS, but the shocked sellout crowd watched as Kerry Wood and Joe Borowski shut down the hitters to one run and five hits while Aramis Ramirez and Alex Gonzalez hit home runs.  Unbelievably, the Cubs would head back to Wrigley in the NLCS.  The Braves went home.  That, ladies and gentlemen, is the moment Atlanta went into a baseball slumber.  The only cities I know that could go into such a slumber while still fielding playoff teams are Atlanta and New York, specifically the Yankees.  And yet it happened, so even though the Braves would win 96 and then 90 games the next two years, the damage was done.  Any excitement still around was taken when Andruw Jones, Atlanta's baseball son, packed his bags after 2007.

The Braves would go on to lose for most of 2006, 2007, 2008 and some of 2009, but the transformation is happening again.  There were some glimpses last season of the future of Atlanta's baseball.  The new radius of guys revolves around some new stars, like Brian McCann, Derek Lowe, and of course super prospect Jason Heyward.  And as I watched the Braves destroy the Cubs for 16 runs in front of a sellout crowd on Opening Day, I saw the vision of another era of winning baseball.  I don't know if it starts this year or 2011 or ever, but I definitely saw the group of guys capable of the job.  Yunel Escobar, Martin Prado, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, and Jason Heyward look like the same style homegrown group that started the last era of Andruw Jones, John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Chipper Jones, Tom Glavine, and Mike Hampton.  One problem with the Braves right now is that there doesn't appear to be one face of the franchise-yet.  For me, it's only a matter of time before Hanson becomes the staff ace, Heyward picks up where Andruw Jones left off, and Escobar and Prado become a premier double play duo.  What Atlanta does at the end of an era can't be called rebuilding.  I call it retooling, because there is never no talent somewhere in the system.  Even through all of the struggles the last half-decade, Brian McCann was there as the new young talent.  Then came Escobar in 2007, Prado and Jurrjens in 2008 (although not technically homegrown, Jurrjens was traded from Detroit as a young prospect), and Hanson in 2009.  It's fair to say Atlanta has woken up.

This kind of transformation is really great for the game.  It's the way the game should be won.  Not the Cubs have ever played it this way or anything, but I guess anything is possible with the Ricketts now.  The Braves, in Boston, Milwaukee, and now Atlanta, is one of baseball's longest tenured and proudest franchises.  A return to winning form is spectacular for the future of baseball and the city of Atlanta.