Postseason Preview: LDS

Note: Formatting errors prevented this from being published earlier.  The idea was to have it published before the start of any playoff games to get readers prepared for the games, but these errors prevented me from publishing it.

The playoffs are finally here!  Leading it off Friday night is the Rangers at Rays  at 4 PM CT, followed by the Tigers at Yankees at 7.  Just like I did last year, I'm kicking off the postseason season with my comprehensive report and predictions on all four series.  Without further delay, here are my picks.












Rangers-Rays: Rays in five

The Rays-Rangers series last year was a five-game thriller.

Game 1: TB (Moore) at TEX (Wilson) -> TEX
Game 2: TB (Shields) at TEX (Holland) -> TB
Game 3: TEX (?) at TB (?) -> TB
Game 4: TEX (?) at TB (?) -> TEX
Game 5: TB (?) at TEX (?) -> TB

In somewhat of a surprise, I have Tampa over Texas because of their dynamite top of the rotation.  Matt Moore earns in the ball in Game 1 for his second career start, but I actually think he won't do too bad.  C.J. Wilson was terrific in his ALDS start against Tampa last season, so Game 1 should be a pitchers' duel.  Game 2 could also be a pitchers' duel just as quickly with James Shields and his 11 complete games on the season going for the Rays.  No other starters have been announced yet for this series, but I don't think any starter on the Rangers matches up well against Shields.  Presuming Shields starts a potential Game 5, it's the Rays going to the ALCS.  Remember that last season's Rangers-Rays matchup went five games; all five were won by the road team.  I think the road team will again win three of the five games.



Yankees-Tigers: Tigers in four

Curtis Granderson faces his former team in the Tigers.

Game 1: DET (Verlander) at NYY (Sabathia) -> DET
Game 2: DET (Fister) at NYY (Nova) -> NYY
Game 3: NYY (Garcia) at DET (Scherzer) -> DET
Game 4: NYY (Sabathia?) at DET (Verlander) -> DET

This is not a formula that I recommend very often, but it seems to almost make more sense for the Yankees to not start C.C. Sabathia in Game 1 to ensure wins against the other parts of the Detroit rotation.  A 19-game winner, Joe Girardi and Yankees would tell you that they're perfectly confident that C.C. can beat the mighty Verlander.  I don't buy it.  After Sabathia, Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia are both on the weaker end of their respective pitching matchups and a problem that was somewhat hidden in the regular season will be magnified on a huge scale here in the postseason.  Essentially, after Sabathia, there is no rotation depth on the Yankees.  This has been a problem for them for many, many years now.  Sabathia was signed as a stopgap, and imagine if they hadn't signed him!  Would Nova be the ace of the Yankees?  Any way I look at this series, I don't see anyone who can beat Verlander unless he chokes under the postseason pressure.  That leaves the Yanks two or three games in the series in which they can try to run up the score on Doug Fister and Max Scherzer.  I just don't see it happening.  For how great of an offensive team the Yankees are, it's stunning that they have such issues that will prevent them from reaching the ALCS.


Brewers-Diamondbacks: Brewers in five

Seems like Ryan Braun has looked like
this a whole lot this season.

Game 1: ARI (Kennedy) at MIL (Gallardo) -> MIL
Game 2: ARI (Hudson) at MIL (Marcum?) -> MIL
Game 3: MIL (Greinke?) at ARI (?) -> ARI
Game 4: MIL (Gallardo?) at ARI (Kennedy?) -> ARI
Game 5: ARI (Hudson) at MIL (Marcum?) -> MIL

There's so much talk about pitching and playoffs in recent years, and I'm sick of it.  I can't wait for Brewers-Diamondbacks because it should be a high scoring, intense series.  The Brewers were the best team in MLB at home, so I have them winning all three home games.  They were also the only postseason team with a losing record on the road, so they'll lose both in Arizona.  Although the starters for Game 3 aren't finalized, I've heard that Zack Greinke will be starting that game.  Greinke pitches significantly better at home (11-0) than on the road (5-6) and the D-Backs will take full advantage of these road struggles in a homer hitter's park in Chase Field.  Led by MVP candidate Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, the Brewers offense will put up some major runs in the series.  Unfortunately, Justin Upton and the young D-Backs will have to wait another year.


Phillies-Cardinals: Phillies in four

When the Phils and Cards played in mid-September, few
could have imagined it would preview a playoff series.

Game 1: STL (Lohse) at PHI (Halladay) -> PHI
Game 2: STL (Jackson) at PHI (Lee) -> PHI
Game 3: PHI (Hamels) at STL (Carpenter) -> STL
Game 4: PHI (Halladay?) at STL (Lohse?) -> PHI

Because Chris Carpenter pitched the Cardinals a great clincher in Houston on Wednesday, he can't start Game 1 on Saturday.  Instead, they'll turn to Kyle Lohse to face the tenacious ace Roy Halladay in a move that actually works out nicely for the Cardinals.  If Carpenter starts Game 1 versus Halladay, I think Halladay wins.  If Lohse starts, Halladay still probably wins, but Carpenter will have an easier (but still hard) job beating Cole Hamels, whose great season has gone totally unnoticed.  The Cardinals did lead the NL in runs this season, but runs will be at a premium for them against MLB's best starters and staff.  Carpenter will have to pitch extremely well at Game 3, or it could be a quick three-and-out for the first of the two wild cards.  If I had to choose which series to watch least this postseason, it would be this one.  I don't know about you, but I'd rather watch Braun and Upton fill up the scoreboard all night long than more blather about how awesome the Phillies rotation is and how Tony La Russa has done a great job with these latest Cardinals.


These series of matchups are the most intriguing I can remember.  We have all different types of matchups in each league.  In the AL (Yankees-Tigers) and NL (Phillies-Cardinals) we have one series each between ancient teams who, in the case of the Yankees and Phillies, are no stranger to the playoffs in recent years or, in the case of the Tigers and Cardinals, ancient teams which have been extremely successful the past five or so years.  In the AL (Rangers-Rays) and NL (Brewers-Diamondbacks) we also have one series each between less experienced teams.  The Rays and Diamondbacks were both founded in 1998.  The Brewers and Rangers moved to their current cities in 1970 and 1972, respectively, and have just seven playoff appearances combined since.  The Yankees and Phillies also have combined for seven playoff appearances.  In the last four years.  In total, the Yankees and Phillies have combined for 62 playoff appearances.

My point in all this is that this season, there is a unique commonality interest with the series that we have this year.  And thanks to that, either Texas or Tampa Bay will be in the ALCS this year and either Milwaukee or Arizona will be in the NLCS.  The best-of-five series format produces some of the most exciting games imaginable right off the bat to kick off the postseason.  And as we learned on Wild Card Wednesday, to use a bad cliché, anything is possible!

Wild Card Wednesday!

Evan Longoria rounds the bases after hitting his
walk-off homer that won the AL Wild Card Wednesday.

Late Wedneday night, the Tampa Bay Rays had 278 million-to-one odds to win the AL Wild Card.  And yet, the Rays are the 2011 AL Wild Card Champions.  The Rays made it to the postseason in a most unlikely fashion; it took a month-long colossal collapse from the Red Sox and a bullpen meltdown from the Yankees to sneak in.  This month-long swoon by the Red Sox and surge by the Rays grew in excitement and controversy nearly every day, culminating in an impossibly hopeless comeback attempt on the season's final day.  It, along with the results of the Red Sox-Orioles, Braves-Phillies, and Cardinals-Astros games, resulted in the most exciting day in the 100+ year history of the Major League Baseball regular season.  Four games completely flipped the postseason landscape within just a handful of hours:

Cardinals at Astros

The first game of the four to finish (although the last one to start), this was also the least exciting.  Coming into the evening, the Braves and Cardinals were tied in the NL Wild Card race, this after the Braves led said race by 8.5 games on September 5.  The Cardinals wrecked Brett Myers early and the Astros didn't stand a chance against a dominating Chris Carpenter, who threw a complete-game shutout, allowing only two hits.  This gave the Cardinals a half-game lead in the Wild Card at the moment, meaning the Braves had to win to force a one-game tiebreaker to be played at Busch Stadium the night after.  The Braves were hosting their division rival Phillies in this must-win.



Phillies at Braves

A two-run homer by Dan Uggla gave the Braves an early lead, but their young closer couldn't hold on in the 9th.  Craig Kimbrel, who struck out 14.8 batters per nine innings on the season, holding a 2.00 ERA and leading the National League with 46 saves, allowed the Phillies to rally in the 9th to score the tying run.  An intense, nerve-wracking extra inning battle pursued.  The Braves were forced to bring in Scott Linebrink in the 13th and Linebrink gave up the go-ahead and winning run on a single to Hunter Pence.  The Braves got a man on base in the bottom half, but rookie sensation Freddie Freeman grounded into a season-ending double play.  I think the slam of his helmet upon grounding out was an emotional reaction that spoke for the entire team.

Red Sox at Orioles

On September 6, the Sox were a full 8.0 games ahead of Tampa for the wild card, a lead which has disappeared as both teams entered the night tied as well.  The Red Sox were also in major panic mode Wednesday, but they came out in the game as cool and composed.  They fell behind early, but Josh Beckett calmed down and Dustin Pedroia and the others rallied to tie the game 3-3, then take the lead.  A rain delay slowed the game time considerably, but the game resumed with the Red Sox jumping on the O's for more runs.  A great throw to the plate, however, would ensure the Orioles stayed within one.  In the bottom of the 9th, it was up to a cast of unsung heroes to take down The Nation.  Nolan Reimold doubled in the tying run and Robert Andino knocked in the winning run, giving Jonathan Papelbon just his third blown save of the entire season!  In fact, it was just two years ago that a dominating Papelbon blew the save in Game 3 of the ALDS to allow the Angels to sweep the Red Sox.  Papelbon does well under pressure, but evidently not under playoff pressure.  The win really didn't mean anything for the well-out-of-contention Orioles, but they celebrated like they had just won the wild card.

Yankees at Rays

The stars seemed to be aligned for the Rays to at least force a tiebreaker with Boston as the Rays started their stud David Price to go against a rookie Yankee who wasn't expected to pitch very long.  Not even an unrealistic, overexaggerated Hollywood script could push through the plot that would unfold after that.  Price couldn't have had a worse start, giving up a grand slam to Mark Teixeira in the 2nd inning as part of a 7-0 Yankees lead.  With that early lead for the Red Sox in Baltimore, all seemed to be well for the Sox.  The Rays scrapped together a few runs before Evan Longoria hit a three-run homer to bring the Rays within one and fans all around the nation were shocked.  With two strikes and two outs in the 9th on Dan Johnson, he hit a most improbable game-tying home run that, at the time, appeared to save the Rays from elimination.  The game would drag on to the 12th, when the game in Baltimore went final.  Fans at the Tropicana Dome erupted into cheer when the scoreboard displayed the score.  Then, of course, they cheered for Evan Longoria's walk-off homer to win the AL Wild Card just three minutes later!  And just like that, the underdog Rays had completed the impossible.

What a great night for baseball.  I thought the ending of the NL Wild Card race was exciting enough; I had no idea what was in store in the AL.  Incredibly, the NL results were totally overshadowed by the epic Rays-Red Sox battle that went late into the night thanks to extra innings and rain delays.  The combination of the two races finishing on the same day, with both underdogs completing the impossible, makes this the best day in MLB regular season history.

I actually came up with a cheesy moniker for this string of unbelievable occurrences, Moneyball 2.0.  It fits perfectly with that movie being the talk of the entertainment world this week.  But it actually does make sense, in that the $161 million Boston Red Sox and their fan 'nation' and their disproportionate ESPN coverage were beaten by the $41 million Tampa Bay Rays and their...domed stadium....  This comeback is great for baseball everywhere.  No matter how ESPN frames the Red Sox on a daily basis, the fact is that most of the country was yearning to watch them fall.  This is further evidence (as if I need any more) that America roots for the underdog.  Don't believe me?  See: Miami Heat.   

A Tale of (More Than) Two Closers

Carlos Marmol and Matt Thornton have
been major disappointments in 2011.

Entering 2011, both the Cubs and Sox appeared to have their setup men and closers all figured out.  On the South Side, the plan was for Chris Sale and Sergio Santos to set up for closer Matt Thornton, and on the North Side Kerry Wood and Sean Marshall would do the same for closer Carlos Marmol.  Unfortunately neither scheme worked out.

Marmol and Thornton themselves are equivalent to polar opposites in most categories.  Thornton is an big man at 6'6", born in Three Rivers, Michigan in 1976.  Despite his intimidating presence, he's somewhat reserved on the mound.  Thornton began his career in Seattle in 2004 as a 27 year old, designating him as a late bloomer.  He came to the Sox in 2006 and has been an elite setup man since with great control, relying on a good fastball and curveball.

Marmol was born in Bonao, Monsenor Nouel, Domincan Republic in 1982.  He's 6'2", so his intimidating factors come from his pitching, not size.  Making his MLB debut in 2006 with the Cubs, he actually was a starter in his first season.  Unbelievably, he both walked and struck out 59 in his rookie campaign.  From 2007 to 2009, however, he was one of the most dominating setup up guys in the National League with a 2.54 ERA combined including 11.8 K/9.  Upon becoming closer in 2010 and saving 38 games, he posted a 3.0 WAR, an incredible mark for a relief pitcher.  Only San Francisco's Brian Wilson had a higher WAR for NL relief pitchers.  And Marmol did all this throwing his devastating slider about 75% of the time, followed by a rapidfire fastball and rarely-used changeup.

Marmol was an All-Star in 2008 and pitched the 13th inning, striking out Michael Young and Carlos Quentin.  Thornton was an All-Star in 2010 and he got in the game in the 7th inning.  With the bases loaded and two outs holding a one-run lead, he gave up a three-run double to Brian McCann, who would be named MVP for that game-winning hit.  So although both have made it to the Midsummer Classic, they've had mixed results despite having excellent careers overall.  But the blown save in the All-Star Game was only the beginning for Thornton.

Over the second week of the the 2011 season, Thornton blew four saves in four consecutive appearances in the worst string of performances I've ever seen a pitcher have.  After the fourth game, he was 0-for-4 in save opportunities.  Marmol was 38-for-43 the season before.  It vaguely made me imagine an independent league pitcher who was forced into MLB action for who knows what reason.  Thornton had absolutely nothing.

Marmol, on the other hand, hasn't had a single series of implosions.  His came over this entire season which probably explains how he was still the closer at the season's end.  All of Marmol's saves start the same way; he puts two baserunners on via hits or, more likely, walks.  The defining moment for Marmol's day on the mound is usually decided by the third batter.  If the batter strikes out, Marmol gets the next two outs quickly, too.  If not, there's some big trouble.  He finished the season just 34-for-44, including ten blown saves, easily the worst in the league.  To make a (6-month) long story short, the crazy Marmol's season has been pretty bad.

What's in store for the future of these two disappointments?  The veteran Thornton has one year left on his two-year, $12 million contract he signed before this season.  I highly doubt he will be given another chance at closer, especially with a new manager who will want to look a different direction.  For Thornton, this was probably the only chance he'll ever get at being closer.  It's back to being a late setup man for the 35 year old.

Marmol and his antics are here to stay for at least one more season.  He's signed through 2013 but I don't see them trading him until, at the earliest, next season's trading deadline.  Honestly I was skeptical of him being a closer when he was named it in late 2009 and miss the shutdown days of Marmol in the 8th and Kerry Wood closing it out in the 9th back in 2008.  Going back to that formula (if Wood doesn't retire) would be an effective and smart reunion, methinks.

Marmol can be the most dominating reliever in baseball in addition to surely the most intimidating.  Hitters can reasonably watch for the same pitch, the slider, on every pitch Marmol throws.  Most of the time, they guess it right but still can't hit it.  I have never seen, and will never again see how many batters take the 2-0 pitch when he's pitching.  Not only is it because Marmol is more likely than the average pitcher to go to a 3-0 count, but because, when dominant, it's nearly impossible to square up a famous slider of his.  He was dominant all of 2010, and gave up one home run all season.  Although frustrating, the spectacle of Carlos Marmol is worth the drama and antics that take place on the field.  He's an A+ in the clubhouse and here to stay.

If Thornton has a mediocre season in 2012, I see the Sox letting him walk.  There's a time to move on for everything, and I'm sensing the end is near between the two.  Besides, the Sox brag enough about the rest of their bullpen; why don't they show us and try to prove?  

Homestand Analysis: Houston, Milwaukee

Starlin Castro narrowly missed
getting his 200th hit at home.

Record: 4-2
Final Record: 69-87

Carlos Lee, despite all odds, has actually had a really great season.  Call me crazy, but the Astros former outfielder (now part-time outfielder and part-time first baseman) has a WAR this season of a full 7.0 points higher than last season!  For comparison, Ryan Braun's 7.2 WAR is 4th in the NL.  Unfortunately for Lee, however, his WAR last season was -2.5, making this season's at 4.5.  Still a very impressive turnaround, and the move to first base definitely hides his defensive weaknesses.  His defensive WAR this season is up 4.0, from -2.0 to 2.0.

Lee hit a solo homer in Friday's game at Wrigley Field for what should have been the only run off Matt Garza.  Even though it was only his 17th of the season, he has been very clutch and improved his walk rate to the point where his OBP improved nearly 50 points compared to last season.  With two outs and two strikes in the ninth on Lee with a 3-1 Cubs lead and a man on base, Lee tagged Garza, who was a strike away from a complete game win, for a two-run game-tying home run.  Marlon Byrd drove in the winning run with an infield single in the 12th.

Despite Lee's great season, the Astros have undoubtedly been the worst team in baseball.  Even though they haven't won the division since 2001, their franchise history reveals that even when bad, they've managed to stay mediocre and avoid disastrous, 100-loss seasons.  Only eight times in the franchise's 50-year history has the team finished with more than 90 losses.  But this seasons, all bets were off and the 'Stros were on pace to lose around 115 games even in May.  Although they definitely won't lose that many now, they lost their 100th on Saturday against the Cubs.  Rodrigo Lopez dominated and Bryan LaHair homered for the go-ahead run early but the lead stood 2-1 at the end.

Bleacher fans celebrate the last home win of the season.
Attendance was down for the fourth year in a row at
Wrigley, but hope is on the horizon this offseason.

Ryan Dempster had one of his typically awful first innings on Sunday but calmed down after that, giving up just those first three runs.  In the 8th, a three-run homer by Carlos Pena appeared to give the Cubs a 4-3 lead, but official review revealed the ball bounced off the yellow rope which divides the home run line and came back into the park, which is in play.  The tying (Starlin Castro) and go-ahead (Pena) runs had to stay at third and second, respectively.  Byrd failed once again with runners in scoring position (surprise, surprise) and that was the only chance the Cubs would have.  The Cubs took two of three, but should have swept.

Geovany Soto drove in all five runs on Monday night against Milwaukee on two homers and a single.  His first homer got onto Waveland Ave, making him the first Cub to reach Waveland this season.  Jerry Hairston Jr. homered off Casey Coleman for his only earned run, and Carlos Marmol performed his routine over-dramatization of a 'save' with a four-run lead by allowing Casey McGehee a 9th inning homer then putting on a few baserunners.  But with the tying run at the plate, the Cubs escaped, winning 5-2.

Mike Quade expects to be back next season, but the
new GM will probably have other (better?) ideas

Tuesday's game was a mess as los Cerveceros put up four on Randy Wells in the 4th inning.  Wells' late season hot streak is definitely over.  Castro was the only Cubs run in the 6th when he homered off Shaun Marcum, who was otherwise practically untouched.  Aramis Ramirez left early with an injury in what could be his last game at Wrigley as a Cub.

In the final home game of the season Wednesday afternoon, the Cubs passed 3,000,000 in attendance.  At 3,017,966 (an average of 37,258), the Cubs just barely passed the mark for the eighth year in a row.  Although 3,000,000 is a great feat achieved by a lucky bunch of larger-market teams, the extra empty seats at Wrigley was no secret.  Through April and May, it didn't look like the Cubs had any chance to get back to 3M, but consistent crowds of 39,000+ in the summer months pushed it through.

In 2008, the Yankees and Mets both had over 4,000,000 in attendance, but higher ticket prices and a recession saw no more 4M teams since.  There won't be any of them this season either; not even close.  The Phillies, MLB's attendance leader, would have to have around eight more home games to reach that.    This season, seven teams have reached the 3M mark and the Angels will by the end of the season.  The first seven in order are the Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Twins, Red Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals.

Matt Garza celebrates his complete game win
to close the 2011 home schedule.

D.J. LeMahieu doubled in two in that home finale as part of a 7-1 blowout.  Byrd hit a three-run homer and Garza got his complete game this time, ending the home season on a high note.  Castro, hot in the pursuit of 200 hits on the season as the NL's hits king, had three chances to get it but was intentionally walked, grounded out to short, and walked.  He got his 200th leading off Friday's game in St. Louis, so not to worry.

The last road trip of the season features St. Louis and San Diego.  The Cubs can really hurt St. Louis' playoff chances with even one win, which they got Friday night.  The Padres aren't playing for much, but the Cubs should be able to close out the season with a series win there.  It's hard to believe the Cubs are done at Wrigley in 2011, but Opening Day feels like years ago.  Watching baseball at Ye' Olde Wrigley was less fun than usual without an alcoholic aid...but big change is coming this offseason and it definitely won't get any worse than it was this season.  Financial flexibility will make us a better team next season, so I foresee games at Wrigley being a significantly hotter ticket next summer than this one.

The 2012 Schedule!

Last week the Cubs announced the tentative 2012 schedule, one of the days I look forward to most during these dreary and out-of-contention Septembers the Cubs have had the last three years.  Here are the most notable games scheduled and some analysis.

Highlights:
-The Cubs will open the season at home on Thursday, April 5 against the Nationals.  Game times haven't been released for any games yet, but I am almost certain this game will be at the regular 1:20 PM start time.  This is the second year in a row and third year out of five that the Cubs will open at home, which traditionally is not something they do.  However, I love starting the season at home.  It seems to make Opening Day more exciting when the first day of the entire season can be spent at Wrigley.  When opening the season on the road, the home opener is nearly an afterthought.

-Division foes with been encountered early on, as the road slate opens in St. Louis before the Cards come to Wrigley a week and a half later.  The Brewers and Reds will also play the Cubs once each in April.

-The first game at the new (Miami!) Marlins stadium will be a nationally-televised game against the Cardinals in an extremely rare one-game series.  Then the Marlins hit the road before coming back to face the Astros and Cubs in their first full homestand.  The Cubs will be the third opponent at the new ballpark, but will be the second full series.  This is extremely cool, I can't wait to get a look at their new park.

-Interleague play opens against the White Sox at home on May 18-20.  In an interesting tidbit, the week before that series will see the Cubs host the Phillies for the rare Wednesday-Thursday two-game series.  It will be interesting to see what they decide for the time of game for each.

-Interleague play resumes Friday, June 8 at the Minnesota Twins in the midst of a 10-game road trip.  After a homestand against the Tigers and Red Sox, the Cubs finish it at US Cellular June 18-20.  The Red Sox series will undoubtedly be in the national spotlight as a big clash between two ancient clubs with championship drought propensities.  Cubs Marketing will surely promote this one big time.  Will they put up billboards depicting a shortstop battle between Starlin Castro and Marco Scutaro, just as they did for Castro and Derek Jeter this season?  Probably not.  But they'll find their ways.

-Usually the All-Star Break is followed by a big 10-game homestand, but this year it's only six games against D-Backs and (Miami!) Marlins.

-The season ends at home on the shortest homestand of the year, just a three-game series with the Astros ending on October 3.

The 2012 Cubs Schedule

The lopsided number of divisional games provides yet another reminder on why realignment is a necessity.  Recent reports have been saying that realignment won't be in effect for 2012, and this released schedule (which is essentially the same as the year before it) supports the theory.  Knowing the speed, or lack thereof, at which MLB operates, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the realignment and second wild card plans shelved for 2013.  It would be highly disappointing, but unfortunately surprising to few.
 

Road Trip Analysis: New York, Cincinnati

Cubs steal emotional finale in New York on 9/11's 10th anniversary

Record: 3-4
Final Record: 65-85

Ever since the Mets traded Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers in July, the search has been on for the closer of the future.  Hard-throwing Bobby Parnell couldn't handle the job in his trial, so Manny Acosta got the honors on Friday night with a 4-3 lead in the ninth.  Darwin Barney's RBI single gave Acosta a blown save and a wide round of boos from the Citi Field crowd, but the offense redeemed him in the bottom of the inning on Justin Turner's walk-off double.

Late in the game Saturday, the Mets looked to win another tight game.  Jason Bay came through with a two-out RBI single to give the Mets a 4-3 lead in the eighth.  After Acosta's blown chance the night before, the Mets staff came crawling back to Parnell to save the next game.  Parnell blew yet another lead, as the Cubs continued their recent comeback trend.  Aramis Ramirez's two-run single to give the Cubs a deciding 5-4 lead came on a 98 mph fastball from Parnell to knot the series at one.

It's not everyday that ESPN shows a Major League Baseball game, in its primetime Sunday night slot no less, between two teams that are a combined 45.5 games out in their respective divisions.  For the Cubs, that's all Sunday night's game in New York was.  A game.  For the Mets, it was much more.  It was practically a mourning, an emotional anniversary of a terrorist attack in their community.  Many fans in the stands were personally connected to those that died on 9/11, and a big pregame ceremony was held in remembrance.  I thought the game would be sold out for sure, and it sure as hell would've made a greater statement if it was.  But apparently much of Queens didn't get the memo, as only 33,502 came to watch another tight game.

Tyler Colvin had three RBIs by the fifth inning when the Cubs held a 4-1 lead, but the Mets started chipping away on Matt Garza, eventually tying it in the eighth off Jeff Samardzija.  It would remain tied until the 11th, when rookie Josh Stinson gave up the lead followed by a two-run double each for Alfonso Soriano and Barney off Ryota Igarashi.  A Geovany Soto sac fly made it 10-4 and this insurmountable lead won the game and series for the Cubs.

Rodrigo Lopez was far from perfect in his start at Cincinnati Monday night.  Luckily, he didn't have to be perfect, as the Cubs offense put up 12 runs in support.  Lopez, who has always had problems with allowing home runs, gave up a 502-foot moon shot over the right field bleachers and into the Ohio River to Juan Francisco - the fifth homer of his Major League career.  But Jeff Baker, Starlin Castro, and Ramirez would all homer later as a washed up Dontrelle Willis really struggled.  The 12-8 win gave the Cubs 22 runs in two games.

Unfortunately, the first game of this four-game series in Cincy was the only winner for the Cubs.  In his last start of the year before being shut down by an innings limit, Mike Leake shut down the offense and narrowly outdueled Ryan Dempster in a 2-1 win.  Brandon Phillips, aka 'Dat Dude BP' (his nickname and twitter account), homered in the first.

Ramon Hernandez hit a three-run homer off starter Casey Coleman to open the scoring Wednesday night and the Reds never looked back in a blowout win.  Reds starter Johnny Cueto had to leave early with an injury, but that did nothing to awake the suddenly silent Cubs bats.

Just as suddenly as they fell silent, the bats woke up in the first inning of the series finale.  Marlon Byrd and Carlos Pena both hit two-run homers in the first inning off Homer Bailey.   Then it fell silent once again until the ninth, when the 4-0 lead had turned into a 6-4 deficit.  An exciting rally ensued; Barney drove in his second ninth inning game-tying run of the road trip.  As is typical, the Cubs stranded runners in the 10th and 11th innings before James Russell curiously blew two lefty-on-lefty matchups.  Joey Votto began the 11th with a double and Jay Bruce ended it with a walk-off two-run homer.

I don't know you about you, but this losing stuff ain't sittin' right.  Still.  Many fellow Cubs fans I know have regressed into that 'I've moved on' phase recently, but many times I can call them out on this bluff.  The best hope for a winner right now in Chicago may be the Bears, but losing still hurts.

Including wins in the first two games against the Astros, the Cubs need to go at least 8-2 to match last season's record.  They have clinched a losing season, but can avoid losing 90 games by going at least 6-4.          

Homestand Analysis: Pittsburgh, Cincinnnati

Cubs catcher Koyie Hill awaits the throw from Reed
Johnson to tag Edgar Renteria out at the plate late in
Wednesday's game.

Record: 3-3
Final Record: 62-81

As weird as morally wrong as it sounds, the Pirates marched into Wrigley Field last weekend as the statistically better team.  Being a young Cubs fan, I still felt the Cubbies mysterious aura of superiority against the Bucs, seeing as they've had it for, like, the last 20 years.

But the Pirates came to play.  Recently called up starter Brian Burres' only blemish was a Carlos Pena home run before the Pirates bullpen was perfect for nearly four innings, holding their 3-1 lead to the end.  A typical, forgettable game which wasted a great start from Ryan Dempster.

Derrek Lee returned from the DL on Saturday and started at first for Pittsburgh.  His only two homers as a Pirate came against the Cubs in that four-game series in early August, which was actually his Pirates debut.  His third homer also came against the Cubs, a grand slam off Carlos Marmol in the 9th of a 5-3 game.  The Pirates took the lead and the win thanks to Marmol finding yet another method to lose a game.  This was his ninth blown save of the season, an unacceptable mark by any measurement.  After being fooled last season, I've come to the conclusion that he isn't made to be a closer.  Marmol is an 8th inning guy, and should be treated as such for the rest of his career.

You know the whole 'get in front of the ball' tactic coaches
teach outfielders starting in T-ball?  Apparently Alfonso
Soriano (still) hasn't gotten the technique down.

Marlon Byrd picked up two RBIs and Randy Wells won his seventh game of the year as the Cubs beat Pittsburgh to end the season series between the teams, with the series ending tied 8-8.  Next came the Cincinnati Reds, out of the pennant race and relevance again as the NL Central will have a different champion for the fourth year in a row.

Dontrelle Willis made his first start at Wrigley Monday afternoon since May 29, 2007, except this time he started for the Reds.  After a sharp first few innings, he lost it during a rally in the 5th inning, where five straight batters got on base.  The Cubs' 4-1 lead barely held up to the 9th, when Marmol rebounded with a 1-2-3 inning, which was surprising to say the least.  Vegas oddsmakers must be stumped on how to gauge this guy.

Mike Leake started Tuesday, and the Cubs basically gave him a complete-game shutout.  Swinging way too aggressively, the Cubs were hanging on to their last hope in rookie Bryan LaHair in a 2-0 game with a man on when LaHair launched a ball onto Sheffield to tie the game with two outs in the 9th.  The Cubs would lose in extra innings, but this LaHair dude is some kind of exciting.  38 home runs this season alone in the Minor Leagues?!  His power numbers are unheard of and were leading the Minors by a wide margin when he was called up.  At 28, many would call him a late bloomer.  But with this ridiculous power, I hope he finds a bench spot on the roster next year while they decide which defensive position for him will cause the team the least damage.

The Reds were the ones who came back on Wednesday, but the 3-3 tie game was short-lived.  Pena launched a three-run monster blast over the bleachers.  Marmol got save #33 and the Cubs took the series from the Reds.  This series was very tight and each game came down to the end, but I really liked the starting pitching they displayed here.

The Cubs now need to go 19-0 the rest of the season to get to .500, 14-5 to match last season's record, and 11-8 to avoid losing 90 games this season, which is big from a moral standpoint.  Given the easy schedule remaining, hopefully it will be somewhere around the third option, as the first two are unrealistic for this team.

Next up for the Cubs is the Mets in New York, where they haven't played since April 2010.  The streak of not playing there for that long was the longest among NL teams.  Because of September 11, the Cubs and Mets, two teams well out of contention, will be ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.  I can't remember the last time ESPN showed a September game between two teams a combined 40 games out of their divisions or whatever.  Not that I'm complaining, but the producers definitely were hoping it would be the Yankees hosting the Rangers or some other contender for the ceremonious ten-year September 11 shindig.  Hey Cubbies, just don't embarrass yourselves on national TV like you have a knack for doing these days (see: Starlin Being Starlin?).

Road Trip Analysis: Milwaukee, San Francisco

Record: 2-4
Final Record: 59-78

The shift of power in the NL Central was on full display in Milwaukee for the first three games of this six-game road trip for the Cubs.  Miller Park, which used to welcome an arguable majority of Cubs fans during these summer I-94 series games, hosted packed houses of hometown fans each night, and they all went home happy.

The Brewers easily swept the three-game series, giving up the lead in only the first game.  Comeback attempts on Saturday and Sunday both fell short by two and one runs, respectively.  Brewers closer John Axford got the save in all three games.  In late July at Miller Park, the Cubs were also swept by the Brewers with Axford getting a save in all three games.  With the sweep, the Brewers improved to an incredible 50-16 at home.  The historic 2008 Cubs only went 55-26 at home.

As the playoffs approach, the Brewers appear unstoppable at home.  Home field advantage will be a huge factor in their games as they have struggled on the road.  From the Cubs standpoint, there was little to be remembered in this series besides a Starlin Castro leadoff homer on Friday and the comeback that fell just short on Sunday, including a Tyler Colvin homer in the 9th.  These appear to be the famous 'dog days of August' that just won't end.

Perhaps to escape the scorching heat, the Cubs traveled to a city whose temperature barely fluctuates seasonally in San Francisco.  The world champs were losing their divisional grip on Arizona, a team that hadn't been given much love by the 'experts' in the media.  But the Cubs would help them out big time here, a win-win in my book.  The Giants have a horrifically bad, Mariners-like incompetence offensively where a good batting average is .240.

If they hadn't looked bad enough yet this season, Randy Wells totally embarrassed them Monday night.  Wells threw his first ever complete game in shutout fashion, allowing only four baserunners on two hits, a walk, and an error.  Three homers off ace Tim Lincecum, a first in Lincecum's career, knocked him out of the game and the Cubs eventually won 7-0.  Matt Garza couldn't match Wells' performance, but he earned his 7th win of the season the next night as the Cubs won 5-2 behind solid offense and an Alfonso Soriano homer for the second straight night.

Madison Bumgarner shut out the Cubs for eight innings on Wednesday afternoon and the Giants won 4-0, but they still only scored six runs in the entire series.  For this lack of offense, the Giants will miss the playoffs this season.  Even though the Cubs didn't show up hardly at all for the last game, taking two of three from the defending world champs always will earn them bragging rights.  And offense or no offense, the Giants pitching staff is still one of the best and the Cubs put up plenty of runs the first two games.  Lincecum had allowed two homers in a start just nine times in his career and not ever to the Cubs, but Soriano, Geovany Soto, and Blake DeWitt managed to make history.

Next up for the Cubs will be their second to last homestand of the season against two mediocre division opponents, the Pirates and Reds.  As the rosters open up here at the end of the season, look for the debut of some of their newest youngsters like first baseman Bryan LaHair who ripped up the Pacific Coast League in Triple-A with 31 homers and overall one of the best offensive seasons in Iowa Cubs history.