A Tale of (More Than) Two Closers

Carlos Marmol and Matt Thornton have
been major disappointments in 2011.

Entering 2011, both the Cubs and Sox appeared to have their setup men and closers all figured out.  On the South Side, the plan was for Chris Sale and Sergio Santos to set up for closer Matt Thornton, and on the North Side Kerry Wood and Sean Marshall would do the same for closer Carlos Marmol.  Unfortunately neither scheme worked out.

Marmol and Thornton themselves are equivalent to polar opposites in most categories.  Thornton is an big man at 6'6", born in Three Rivers, Michigan in 1976.  Despite his intimidating presence, he's somewhat reserved on the mound.  Thornton began his career in Seattle in 2004 as a 27 year old, designating him as a late bloomer.  He came to the Sox in 2006 and has been an elite setup man since with great control, relying on a good fastball and curveball.

Marmol was born in Bonao, Monsenor Nouel, Domincan Republic in 1982.  He's 6'2", so his intimidating factors come from his pitching, not size.  Making his MLB debut in 2006 with the Cubs, he actually was a starter in his first season.  Unbelievably, he both walked and struck out 59 in his rookie campaign.  From 2007 to 2009, however, he was one of the most dominating setup up guys in the National League with a 2.54 ERA combined including 11.8 K/9.  Upon becoming closer in 2010 and saving 38 games, he posted a 3.0 WAR, an incredible mark for a relief pitcher.  Only San Francisco's Brian Wilson had a higher WAR for NL relief pitchers.  And Marmol did all this throwing his devastating slider about 75% of the time, followed by a rapidfire fastball and rarely-used changeup.

Marmol was an All-Star in 2008 and pitched the 13th inning, striking out Michael Young and Carlos Quentin.  Thornton was an All-Star in 2010 and he got in the game in the 7th inning.  With the bases loaded and two outs holding a one-run lead, he gave up a three-run double to Brian McCann, who would be named MVP for that game-winning hit.  So although both have made it to the Midsummer Classic, they've had mixed results despite having excellent careers overall.  But the blown save in the All-Star Game was only the beginning for Thornton.

Over the second week of the the 2011 season, Thornton blew four saves in four consecutive appearances in the worst string of performances I've ever seen a pitcher have.  After the fourth game, he was 0-for-4 in save opportunities.  Marmol was 38-for-43 the season before.  It vaguely made me imagine an independent league pitcher who was forced into MLB action for who knows what reason.  Thornton had absolutely nothing.

Marmol, on the other hand, hasn't had a single series of implosions.  His came over this entire season which probably explains how he was still the closer at the season's end.  All of Marmol's saves start the same way; he puts two baserunners on via hits or, more likely, walks.  The defining moment for Marmol's day on the mound is usually decided by the third batter.  If the batter strikes out, Marmol gets the next two outs quickly, too.  If not, there's some big trouble.  He finished the season just 34-for-44, including ten blown saves, easily the worst in the league.  To make a (6-month) long story short, the crazy Marmol's season has been pretty bad.

What's in store for the future of these two disappointments?  The veteran Thornton has one year left on his two-year, $12 million contract he signed before this season.  I highly doubt he will be given another chance at closer, especially with a new manager who will want to look a different direction.  For Thornton, this was probably the only chance he'll ever get at being closer.  It's back to being a late setup man for the 35 year old.

Marmol and his antics are here to stay for at least one more season.  He's signed through 2013 but I don't see them trading him until, at the earliest, next season's trading deadline.  Honestly I was skeptical of him being a closer when he was named it in late 2009 and miss the shutdown days of Marmol in the 8th and Kerry Wood closing it out in the 9th back in 2008.  Going back to that formula (if Wood doesn't retire) would be an effective and smart reunion, methinks.

Marmol can be the most dominating reliever in baseball in addition to surely the most intimidating.  Hitters can reasonably watch for the same pitch, the slider, on every pitch Marmol throws.  Most of the time, they guess it right but still can't hit it.  I have never seen, and will never again see how many batters take the 2-0 pitch when he's pitching.  Not only is it because Marmol is more likely than the average pitcher to go to a 3-0 count, but because, when dominant, it's nearly impossible to square up a famous slider of his.  He was dominant all of 2010, and gave up one home run all season.  Although frustrating, the spectacle of Carlos Marmol is worth the drama and antics that take place on the field.  He's an A+ in the clubhouse and here to stay.

If Thornton has a mediocre season in 2012, I see the Sox letting him walk.  There's a time to move on for everything, and I'm sensing the end is near between the two.  Besides, the Sox brag enough about the rest of their bullpen; why don't they show us and try to prove?