"The Most Inexplicable Trade Ever?"

Now that the well-publicized Vernon Wells to the Angels for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera has sunk in for more than a week, I think it's time we compare.  Is this deal the worst trade of the offseason?  Of the decade?  Ever?

The worst trade in the recent history of baseball before the Wells deal is, in my opinion, when the Expos traded Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, and Grady Sizemore to the Indians for Bartolo Colon back in 2002.  Colon had won 75 games over the past six seasons with the Indians, while none between Phillips, Lee, or Sizemore had even debuted in the Major Leagues.  Sizemore was just 19 at the time.  Colon went on to win 10 games for the Expos in 2004, then leave as a free agent that very offseason.  His WAR for that half season was 2.3.  In their respective careers, Phillips, Lee, and Sizemore have totaled a 51.9 WAR in the Major Leagues, although the Indians trade Phillips and eventually Lee also.  The bottom line is that the Expos sent their three best prospects for just one player in return, a 'rental' at that, seeing as how they knew Colon would be a free agent after that very season.  Clearly, it wasn't worth it.

Brandon Phillips has not gotten the most attention out there, but he quietly produces on the now-contending Reds.  His best season came in 2007, his second full season manning second base for Cincinnati in which he had a 30-30 offensive season, earning him some MVP votes.  He's been a consistent 20-20 player since 2006, but his run production took a step backward in 2010.  He was also thrown out 12 times to only 16 steals, but the 30 year old has lots of time to keep producing for the Reds.  His attitude and teammate chemistry make him a very valuable part to a Cincinnati Reds team that now depends on his leadership to contend.

Cliff Lee has arguably been in more trade/free agency rumors than any other player since 2009.  Playing for four teams in two seasons, Lee has become quite the hot commodity over this time.  Perhaps his most highly regarded trait is his control, something GMs scramble to acquire.  Lee walked just 61 in 444 innings between 2009 and 2010.  This is exactly the player Lee could have become playing for the Nationals, assuming they could sign him to an extension.  In 2005, just three years after the trade, Lee finished fourth in Cy Young voting with an 18-5 record and a 3.79 ERA.  The 2005 Nationals were a contending team in the first half, but lacked rotation depth and faded in the second half so Lee would have probably helped them become a winner.

Grady Sizemore was a 20-20 player in his first full season in 2005, at the age of 22.  He continued this trend until 2008, when he improved to 30-30.  From 2004-2007, he had a 3.7 defensive WAR, a signature characteristic of a five tool outfielder.  Oh, and he also had a 17.2 WAR over that time, followed by a 5.3 in 2008.  Although injuries have derailed his performance the last two seasons, Sizemore was arguably the best outfielder of the mid 2000s.  His combination of power, speed, defense, and enthusiasm for the game were enough to call him probably one of the best players in baseball as well.

Meanwhile, Bartolo Colon's career with his new team lasted a full three months and 17 starts.  The highlight of his tenure with Montreal came on August 19, 2002, when he shut out the Padres at home allowing two hits and two walks on 95 pitches.  Besides that and Colon's 10 wins in that second half, not much came to the Expos in this deal.  Colon signed with the White Sox in the offseason and good season there in 2003, and the Expos were left with nothing.  Essentially, the Expos gave up three future All-Stars in exchange for half a season from a decent starter in a season where the Expos never came close to the playoffs.

While that trade looks bad because Colon was gone in half a season and the other three are having great careers, Vernon Wells will probably have a decent career for quite some time on the Angels.  The fact that Wells is a good player is not being disputed by many; this trade looks worse on paper.  Wells' salary will not make his production worth it, and the Angels gave up the two following players:

Mike Napoli hit 20 homers for the third straight season in 2010, keeping up his reputation as a great power hitter for a catcher.  Napoli has always been a minus defensively, but his bat makes him a valuable commodity to a contending team, especially since power out of the catcher spot is hard to find.  Immediately after being traded to Toronto, the Blue Jays turned around and swung him to Texas.  Napoli is a great player to have on a winning team, which the Rangers figure to be in 2011.

Juan Rivera has also always been a negative defensively, but an effective player nonetheless.  Rivera had his best season in 2009, hitting 25 homers and 88 RBI in 138 games.  He doesn't walk much and probably won't make a big overall impact on a lineup on his own, making his best role a fourth outfielder or third outfielder subject to frequent substitution.

To be sure, Vernon Wells has had a nice career.  He was a consistent cog in the Toronto outfield for almost the entire 2000s.  From 2002-2010, Wells averaged .279 with 25 homers, 89 RBI, 9 steals, and a total 28.0 offensive WAR over that time period.  Despite two subpar seasons in 2007 and 2009, it's hard to look at the stat sheet and not realize he was a great player for some time.  

Now here's where it gets really, really ugly.  Vernon Wells enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2010, swatting 31 homers and 88 RBI.  But even that isn't good enough to live up to his contract.  The 32 year old Wells hit 16 or less homers in both 2007 and 2009 (in full seasons), providing for a real head scratcher as to why the Blue Jays would reward a 'slugger' with those gaping holes in the stat sheet with 7 years, $126 million.  Although the deal was signed in December 2006, it didn't go into effect until 2010, the first year of the deal.  Wells made over $15 million in 2010, but it gets worse.  Wells' deal runs for four more seasons, so he'll be 35 at the end, over which time the Angels are due to pay him around  $86 million.  In 2011, he's due $23 million and will be due $21 million in 2012, 2013, and 2014.  The $23 million he will make next season was higher than any non-Yankee in baseball.  Miguel Cabrera was the only player not playing in New York to earn $20 million in 2010, giving you an idea of what Wells' salary will be compared to.  Remember, although Wells has had some good seasons like 2010, he had two very bad seasons for a player who is being paid to drive the ball and these two seasons were recent.  Look at his stats page, scroll down to the Standard Batting chart, and notice the two seasons I've highlighted in blue.

So he's getting paid.  Like seriously paid.  Big time dough.  All that cash for a guy who's being paid for the run production, but is well past his peak and proof of that comes in the form of those two awful seasons that were 2007 and 2009.  And all that cash for a guy who had his best season, like, eight years ago.  His career highs in games, at-bats, plate appearances, runs, hits, doubles, homers (only 33), RBI, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, total bases, and even times hit by pitch, all came in 2003.  In 2003, he had lineup protection in Carlos Delgado behind him and table setters in Frank Catalanotto and Shannon Stewart in front of him, all three of whom are now out of the Majors.  Heading to the Angels, his only table setters will likely be Howie Kendrick and/or Erick Aybar, and his only lineup protection will be Torii Hunter.  The setup was better on the Blue Jays, and although a change of scenery could help him, his ceiling is low because there's no chance he will do much better than his 2010 output, if he even gets to that mark.  His career high of 33 homers in 2003 is nowhere near the career highs of the sluggers he is being to hit like.

In conclusion, I think the Vernon Wells trade is the worst trade of recent baseball history, worse than the Bartolo Colon deal.  Angels GM Tony Reagins had taken a lot of criticism nationwide for his whiffs on Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, and Adrian Beltre.  This move was, without doubt, a desperation move to try to compensate for missing on those elite players.  But not only does Reagins have to give up two decent players in Napoli and Rivera, he is now stuck with what most baseball experts cite as 'baseball's most untradeable player' in Wells and his enormous contract.  In the Bartolo Colon trade of 2002, Colon was gone by that offseason and although this didn't give the Expos much value, it also didn't tie down their future, either.  Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips all went on to be great players, but it's unlikely the Expos would have been able to resign all three or even two once they became established stars.  And now the Angels will have limited financial flexibility for at least the next offseason due to this contract monstrosity.  So while Wells may be smiling ear to ear to be out of Toronto where he never made the playoffs, Reagins won't be in four years.                

Cubs Sign Braden Looper, Augie Ojeda

The Cubs have signed Braden Looper and Augie Ojeda to Minor League contracts with invites to Spring Training.  Neither will probably make the Opening Day roster, but there's nothing wrong with a little competition.  Looper could be an emergency starter for the Cubs in the event of widespread injury or vast ineffectiveness by the current rotation corps.  I don't think hardly any level of incompetency by the Cubs infielders could land Ojeda a Major League job, however.  The Cubs are deep in the middle of the infield and will (should) call up prospects waiting in Iowa, like Darwin Barney, before Ojeda.

Looper, 36, became a starter in 2007 after relieving for the entirety of his Major League career before that, including closing games for the Marlins and Mets in the early 2000s.  Looper last pitched in 2009 with the Brewers, earning a 14-7 record but, interestingly, had a bad 5.22 ERA and lead the league in homers and earned runs allowed.  That was his worst of his three seasons as a starter, the best being in 2008 with the Cardinals in which he went 12-14 with a 4.16 ERA.  He should pitch in the minors and set an example for the young arms down there, but who knows if he will be able to gain the respect necessary to do that.  Also, nobody will really listen to an old veteran serving up meatballs, so he'll need to pitch well to gain that respect.  That might be a challenge.

Ojeda, also 36, is a former Cub who reached the Majors in 2000.  Ojeda hit an underwhelming .196 in four partial seasons with the Cubs, with his 359 plate appearances between those years equaling about two thirds of a full season's worth.  To me, Ojeda is one of those guys where you look at his stat page and just wonder what anyone ever saw in him to believe he could play at the Major League level.  He is an awful hitter, owning a .234 career batting average in the Majors and .261 in the Minors.  In his entire career, he has a 0.6 WAR, including a -0.6 WAR last season alone.  He used to be a good defender but has lost that with his age, and has a career -0.5 WAR batting, so he's legitimately hurting teams with his bat.  I don't see the value in his signing.

Both of these signings seen uncharacteristic of the Cubs.  Both signings are somewhat unnecessary, as the Cubs have the depth in the Minors to compensate for any lack of players at the moment.  The rookies would certainly do better than these two, because neither have an impressive career and not much can be expected out of either.  The reason it seems uncharacteristic of the Cubs is that, for one, the Cubs' oldest player last year was 35 so they weren't a veteran team and, for two, it isn't typical of the Cubs front office to go after these formerly mediocre veterans who now have little to no value.  The Sox did that with Omar Vizquel and Andruw Jones and actually got contributions out of them, but I don't think the Cubs will be quite as lucky with Looper and Ojeda.  

The Projected Power Rankings 2011-2020: Top 50 Players

Matt Trueblood of Bleacher Report published a slideshow on Saturday of his projected top 50 players over the next decade.  I think this brings up not just a few, but many debates.  Such a topic is very hard to predict considering that we probably have never even heard of most of the next decades' stars.  For example, there's no way anyone knew the potential of Hanley Ramirez in 2000.  The following rankings are his, followed by my spin on the ranking.

Honorable Mention: Players 60-51

60. Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago Cubs: I'm glad Jackson made this list, but I think the Cubs' top pick in the 2009 MLB Draft deserves a higher spot.  Even Trueblood acknowledges that he has "plate discipline, speed, defense in either center or right field and the potential to hit 25-30 homers."  Seeing as Jackson will be only 22 in 2011, I think Jackson will have a great decade.

59. Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers: Verlander is an ace as of now, which means he won't be an ace in 2020.  However, he should put in a bunch of great seasons.

58. Mike Montgomery, SP, Kansas City Royals: Hasn't debuted in the Majors yet, which explains your head scratching.  Has looked great in the minors though, with a 2.27 ERA in 245.2 innings.

57. Ryan Kalish, OF, Boston Red Sox: Did debut in 2010, playing in 53 games.  He's developed power in the minors the last couple years, so he could be a 20-20 threat with the speed that he has.

56. Daniel Bard, RP, Boston Red Sox: He didn't leave much to complain about in his 2010 stat line, a 1.93 ERA in over 70 innings of relief.  One of the hardest throwers in baseball, it won't be long before he overtakes the overemotionally inconsistent Jonathan Papelbon.

55. Brian McCann, C, Atlanta Braves: Probably a 'half-decade' star for the late 2000s and early 2010s, much like Mike Piazza ten years before.  It's easy to forget he's still only 26, but let's see if his high workload takes a toll on him in his early 30s.

54. Zack Greinke, SP, Milwaukee Brewers: Many fans would put him higher, but he doesn't seem to be stable enough.  I agree with this ranking because he is already 27, was really bad to start his career, had depression issues early on, and still doesn't have a great attitude.

53. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: An appropriate ranking here, too.  Braun has flashed major power (37 homers in 2008) and not major power (25 in 2010).  He'll be a lock for 25 homers for a while, but I don't know that he'll be that great.

52. Michael Pineda, SP, Seattle Mariners: A big time prospect, Pineda should be in the Majors soon.

51. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies: Sort of a surprise to me.  Gonzalez just had a monster season and Trueblood writes this one off due to the Colorado effect among other things.  But Gonzalez's power goes to all fields, including center where Coors Field measures 425 feet.  And don't forget the infamous humidor for the baseballs.  I don't think the Colorado effect really makes a difference anymore.


The Main List (Top 50):

50. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers: Speed, defense, hitting for average, a fan base that loves you, why not?

49. Joakim Soria, CP, Kansas City Royals: Often overlooked, Soria should be a great closer for a long time.  He is just 27 but has 132 saves in four seasons.

48. Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore Orioles: If you're a believer in hype, then believe it.  I'm not sold on Matusz because he didn't have a standout year and hasn't proved he can be anything special in the Majors.  He won't deserve this rank if he repeats 10-12, 4.30 ERA seasons.

47. Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Colorado Rockies: Like I've always preached about Jimenez, he's a tick below the league's top pitchers and will be until he cuts down on the walks.  But his 15-win first half of 2010 was unbelievable, and his fastball velocity should zip him higher on this list.

46. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays: A speedy infielder, he should cut down on the strikeouts and work on contact before he can earn this rank.  A .285 average at AA isn't ideal for a speedy infielder.

45. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals: Smashing 20 homers in A and AA ball in 2010, the Royals' first round pick from 2008 should be in KC sometime this summer. 

44. Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees: Already 27 having only recorded one full season in the Majors, Gardner is in his prime right away.  You'll be seeing his scrawny 5'10" frame on ESPN for the next half-decade, until he loses his speed and therefore any value to anybody. 

43. Yovani Gallardo, SP, Milwaukee Brewers: Already a star, I think Gallardo should be in the 30s at least.  Now without the pressure of being a forced ace at age 23 (in 2009) when he probably wasn't ready for it, I think he'll thrive in his #2 role.  His on-the-job ace training has been successful even though he still has areas to improve on, like walks.

42. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves: It sounds like a name computer-generated for a video game, but the name Freddie Freeman is one you'll hear about plenty.  This dude is a big power hitter who had his best season in 2010 and is simply an RBI machine.

41. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Oakland Athletics: Some baseball experts are picking the Oakland A's as a surprise pick in the AL West to upset the incumbent Texas Rangers, but here's the way I look at it: no Gio, no go.  Gonzalez had his first decent season in the Majors in 2010, posting 15 wins after two partial seasons where he showed potential but struggled.

40. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox: It seems like this guy was forgotten down the stretch of 2010 due to his injury and the fading Red Sox.  But people shouldn't yet forget about the 2008 AL MVP because, if nothing else, he's just a good hitter.  Pedroia will probably pick up where he left off.

39. Kyle Drabek, SP, Toronto Blue Jays: And the displeasure of having to deal with Pedroia will be something Drabek will face, a stud starter and the crown jewel in the Roy Halladay trade.  No problems with this rank.

38. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox: 'Gonzo' will be a half-decade star for sure because of the short right field line distance and Green Monster at Fenway, as Gonzo is a terrific opposite field power hitter. 

37. Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle Mariners: I'm not sold on Ackley, a highly touted prospect in the MLB Draft last year who didn't hit well in the minors.  He should develop though, as he was rushed forwards by the Mariners in the minors and he deserves a higher spot on this list.

36. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: Fielder is one of the most underrated players in the game because besides his 50-homer season in 2007, the Brewers haven't contended at the same time as him having an elite season.  A change of scenery could put him on the map once again, seeing as he's a free agent after 2011.

35. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs: For more on this dude, read the post right below this one.  But without bias, he deserves a higher spot on the list.  Scouts have noticed Castro has the correct work ethic and although he hasn't put it all together yet, he has the raw talent to be like a slightly less speedier Jose Reyes-type player.  But because he was rushed to the Majors, he still needs to put it together himself soon.

34. Jesus Montero, C, New York Yankees: In this day and age, the traditional, three-outcome (homer, strikeout, or walk) kind of DH has fallen out of favor with baseball executives; players like Jim Thome and Frank Thomas are becoming more uncommon in favor of tandems of fielding players to get them 'a day off'.  All this means Jesus Montero is swimming against the current.  Trueblood notes Montero could hit 35 homers a season in the Majors, although his defense as a catcher isn't good enough to justify him fielding.  One of the few traditional DHs we will see in the 2010s.

33. Martin Perez, SP, Texas Rangers: Definitely not.  Although he looked to be a great up and coming pitcher in 2009 with a sub-3.00 ERA, he didn't look at all in 2010 as that number climbed over 5.00, including a 10.9 H/9 ratio.  Although he will be a good player in the next decade, let's not jump the gun here.  Also, he does play in the bandbox that is Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

32. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: Hellickson has a stat line to drool over in the minors, with a 2.71 ERA in six seasons of Minor League ball covering 580.1 innings.  In those innings, he has 634 strikeouts to just 137 walks.  His career 4.63 K/BB ratio is the new meaning of 'control freak'.  He got his first taste of the Majors with four starts last year.

31. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates: A multi-tooled star, this is probably the right spot for him because he has less power than some of the standout 20/20 talent-caliber five tool players of today.

30. Mat Latos, SP, San Diego Padres: Latos had a breakout season in 2010 at the age of 22, and there is no reason to think he shouldn't continue.  Playing in Petco Park is an advantage for him, but it also hurts his offense and this may result in him having lower win totals than some other top line starters.  Not to worry, Latos has the tools to make the 2010s great for the Padres.

29. Dominic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: A 20/20 talent in the Minors, 23 year old Brown didn't hit well in his playing time with Philadelphia in 2010.  Brown is overrated and will make some noise with Philly, but he's going to need to hit Major League pitching first.

28. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians: In the summer of 2008, the Dodgers traded Santana and prospects to the Indians for Casey Blake and other prospects.  While Blake has had just a disappointing 10.2 WAR in two and a half seasons in Los Angeles, Santana produced a 2.2 WAR in just 150 at-bats at the Major League level in 2010.  Santana is the next Victor Martinez-style power-hitting catcher who should become a star in Cleveland, proving the winner of that trade.

27. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals: Yes, another Kansas City Royal.  The stats speak for themselves, but they're so incredible I'll speak for them anyway.  36 home runs?  Who does that in the Minors?

26. C.C. Sabathia, SP, New York Yankees: Trueblood notes here that although Sabathia has already played a lot of baseball and is 30 years young, if anyone is capable of being the best in the next decade it's him.  This guy is a workhorse who has won at least 12 games in 10 straight seasons, never throwing less than 188 innings.  Sabathia has a better chance than anyone at winning 300 games, especially with his run production from the Yankees.

25. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins: With his salary, Mauer better be this good.  His surprising power vanished in 2010, but that wasn't what made him famous in the first place and he should have at least five more elite seasons.

24. Tim Lincecum, SP, San Francisco Giants: Lincecum is no freak, but the hitters freak when they have to face him.  This should stay the same for most of the 2010s because any time you make the hitter uncomfortable in the box, you have an advantage right off the bat (no pun intended).

23. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: Many baseball experts and fans were buying big on Kershaw after his impressive first full season of 2009.  I was not one of them.  Once again, I am not a buyer on Kershaw because of his alarmingly high walk rate of 4.2 BB/9 IP in his career.  

22. Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves:  Teheran's highest level in 2010 was AA but he's sure to be moving up soon with his strikeout stuff.  Remember this name, definitely.

21. Jon Lester, SP, Boston Red Sox:  Already a star, Lester is one of the most effective starters in the game right now.  Trueblood is spot on with this ranking; just wait till he really gets paid.

20. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins: If you follow baseball, you know about Stanton.  The new stadium of the Marlins which opens in just over a year is slightly larger than Sun Life Stadium, but this will prove no issue for one of the best power hitters in the game for the next decade.

19. Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants: A World Series-clinching victory may have jumpstarted his career, and he's definitely proved he can deal with pressure.  The next step is to adjust to hitters adjusting on him, and he'll have no trouble avoiding a sophomore slump.

18. Josh Johnson, SP, Florida Marlins: Johnson looked like a Cy Young candidate for much of the 2010 season before fading at the end.  But he should be in contention again soon, especially with that new ballpark in Miami just mentioned with Stanton.  A certain star of the 2010s.

17. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals: A scout told Trueblood "he's so much better than David Wright at this level" which is not an opinion you hear everyday about New York's golden boy.  Remember Zimmerman's 30 game hit streak in 2009?  A prime example of what a fixture he is in the Washington lineup.  With an improved team this year, Zimmerman could be primed for his best year ever.

16. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: Upton had a quiet year in 2010, but this isn't the same kid called up to the Majors at 19 years young in 2007.  He's been around the block a few times and should be ready for an even better season this year.  This will be his 5th year in the Majors, at 23 years old.  So don't worry, because he has plenty of time to turn on the tools.

15. Tommy Hanson, SP, Atlanta Braves: With the Braves' history of pitching, Hanson is a welcome addition to a team looking to improve on a playoff team from 2010.  Him and Tim Hudson will make a great duo.  Definite future star.

14. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels: With a .428 OBP, he got on base a lot in 2010 in the Minors. But you won't often find him at first base.  Yeah, he just stole second, that fast.  His super speed (56 steals in A ball in 2010) will zoom into the Majors in about two years, and then watch out.

13. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: Votto got his first MVP award in 2010, but it probably won't be his last.  Watch for Votto and Albert Pujols to go at each other for the entire next decade, and Votto will succeed Pujols as the best hitter in the division at some point.

12. Aroldis Chapman, SP, Cincinnati Reds: His speedy debut came quickly for a Reds organization that pulled a surprise in signing him.  Believe the annoying hype; he's here to stay and for real.  The definite future ace of the Reds once those old guys step out in Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo.

11. Bryce Harper, C, Washington Nationals: The first pick in the 2010 MLB Draft by the Nationals, Harper should be a Buster Posey-type player.  The jury is out, because we haven't seen much of him.

10. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners: Imagine what Hernandez could do if not for that historically horrible Mariners offense.  Hernandez should have won around 20 games based on his pitching, and would have won 24 with a team like the Yankees.  However, baseball finally got something right and gave him the AL Cy Young.  If he could get off the Mariners, he would be widely regarded as the best pitcher in baseball at 25 in 2011.

9. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins: 2010 was supposed to be the season where Ramirez put it all together, but he put up yet another season that left people wondering how he hasn't yet unleashed his full potential except for a dynamite 2007 season.  As Trueblood points out, anytime you hit .300 and hit 21 homers, stealing 32 bases and still being told you're having a down year, you know you're good.

8. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays: Longoria's production will go down with the absence of Carl Crawford and run producing former teammate Carlos Pena, but Longoria will still hit for average and play good defense.  He may be a bit overrated here, though.

7. Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves: 'J-Hey' is getting star treatment in Atlanta, but didn't finish the 2010 season very well.  Watch for Heyward to get better, but he'll need to put in the work first.

6. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants: Most rookies on championship teams contribute behind the core of established players.  At 23, Posey was arguably the most important piece to the World Champion Giants.  Expect big things out of the biggest Giant of them all.

5. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies: The Rockies gave 'Tulo' a big extension just because this is exactly what they think he'll become.  During a stretch with "video game" stats (14 homers, 31 RBI in 15 games) in early September, it became clear that Tulowitzki is capable of carrying the Rockies.  However, he had only 6 RBI after that and the Rockies missed the playoffs.  If he can carry his team into the playoffs, he will earn this rank.

4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers: His entire career, it seems Cabrera has been flying under the radar .  His monster seasons have come when his team wasn't contending, and therefore he hasn't received the publicity he deserves.  Cabrera already had 126 RBI in only 150 games in 2010, meaning he's at the top of his game right now to enter the new decade.

3. David Price, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: Price gained a lot of popularity in the 2008 playoffs, and with good reason.  Price was one of the top candidates for AL Cy Young and will be the ace of Tampa Bay for a long time barring a trade.  Look for Price to finish the next decade in the top 10 in wins.

2. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals: Red flag.  I will never, ever again trust a young hardthrower with major surgery complications in just the first year of his Major League career.  So maybe he will come back and blow away the league, but be very, very careful about expecting this out of him.  Plus, the fact he showed signs of vulnerability in his rookie season.  There's a lot of pressure on him, so we'll have to see what he can do in the future.

1. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals: At 31, Pujols is one of the oldest guys on this list.  But he is absolutely the favorite to be the best player of the 2010s after being the best of the 2000s.  His consistency is incredible, and ten more equal seasons will give him the all time home run crown.  He has never been stopped consistently, so just watch him go.

The Pick 13 Plan

It's on the radio, it's in the newspapers, and it's available on cubs.com for a minimum of around $200.  It's the Pick 13 Plan, the latest ticketing package introduced by the Cubs- something the Cubs don't do many of.  The advertisements for the plan feature a potential shortstop battle between Starlin Castro and Derek Jeter when the Yankees come to Wrigley Field in June for the first time since 2003.  Castro is not a household shortstop name in the Major Leagues like a Hanley Ramirez or somebody, so this whole shortstop showdown thing is probably premature.  The Cubs, however, don't have anyone else who resembles a franchise player any more than Castro and the Cubs Marketing wants to capitalize on the fact that he was just a rookie and has not shown us his full potential yet.  Basically, a player in the Minors on Opening Day 2010 is now the face of the Chicago Cubs.  Or that what the Cubs are making him look like at least.  But the 'battle' between Castro and Jeter may be significant for another reason this summer.

Castro, 21 in 2011, made his Major League debut in 2010.  Although he showed that there are areas of his game, like fielding, where he needs work, and that he was probably rushed to the Majors, he was an exciting player to watch down the stretch.  If for no other reason, he broke the monotonous rhythm of the 2010 Cubs season.  The Cubs were the 12th oldest team in MLB in 2010, but unlike most of the other veteran teams like Texas and Philadelphia, they weren't winning.  Castro was a new, young spark and although he didn't exactly ignite the team with his play, he suggested he may do so in the future.  Castro is most likely a face that Cub fans will be seeing for at least a few more years and possibly more, if he lives up to his hype.

Jeter, 37 in 2011, made his Major League debut in 1995, just five years after Castro was born.  Jeter was the American League Rookie of the Year in 1996, and has been an All-Star 11 times since, finishing the top 10 in MVP voting seven times.  Jeter was the best shortstop of the 2000s and will most likely eclipse 3000 career hits during the 2011 season.  Clearly, Jeter has accomplished much more in MLB.  He's signed with the Yankees through 2013 with a player option for the following year, but that will probably be the end of his career.  2010 was one of Jeter's worst seasons and didn't deserve to be an All-Star, a pattern that could continue as Jeter continues to age.  He hit just .270, his worst average ever in a full season.  One stat summed up his poor season; his WAR was just 1.3, after 6.5 in 2009 and 68.8 in his career before that.

The significance of this upcoming Yankees-Cubs series, I think, is this could be the changing of the guard for elite shortstops in baseball.  The odds that Castro will repeat Jeter's career are highly unlikely, but nonetheless, Castro will be a great shortstop for some time and Jeter will retain popularity but fade in importance to the Yankees and drift off to Cooperstown in probably eight years, as Jeter will be a first ballot Hall of Famer for sure.  Castro could be the face of the Cubs in the 2010s, and Jeter definitely won't for the Yankees.  After the series is over, the two will head in opposite directions.  So when all anybody is talking about on ESPN is the Yankees and Cubs this June, take a moment to observe the past  and the future.

Hot Stove Buzz #5

NOTE: This is the 100th post in the history of the Cubs Insider blog!  Thank you!

-If there's Cubs news out there, it should come first.  And here it is.  Reed Johnson, the defensive whiz Cub fans love from his tenure at Wrigley between 2008 and 2009, has been signed by the Cubs to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training.  Despite seeing action in just 174 games and getting just 560 plate appearances between the two seasons due to injury and his bench role, he still quickly became a fan favorite for his hustle and unbelievable otherworldly defensive skills.  While his arm isn't the best by any means, he covers a lot of ground and almost seems to enjoy diving and crashing into stuff to make a catch.  For intense Cub fans, the catch he made in the top photo will be remembered for quite some time.  Actually, so will the photo below that.  The bottom line is, it looks like the Cubs have their fifth outfielder.  Fernando Perez looked like the favorite to be the team's fifth outfielder if five outfielders where going to make the roster; that being in spite of the fact that Perez likely needs more seasoning in the minors.  It will be hard to find Johnson playing time in a five man rotation with four guys already dying to play everyday, but don't be surprised to see Johnson sneak his way in the lineup from time to time.
-In other news, baseball's all-time saves leader in Trevor Hoffman retired today.  With 601 saves, he is the only man to reach the 600 mark but likely will be overpassed by Mariano Rivera, who got 500 in June 2009 and has 559 heading into 2011.  Hoffman had a really, really bad 2010 and although he was able to get to the big 600 mark, it's sad to see players once so great struggle like this.  Ken Griffey, Jr. went through the same thing in 2010, and it's just sad to see players who used to mean so much to fans just kind of fade off into retirement after a bad year and few people wanting them to come back.
-The Yankees have been looking at outfielder Andruw Jones for a while.  Jones went way under the radar in 2010, hitting only .230 but also hitting 19 homers in slightly more than half a season's worth of at-bats.  If he were given the keys to a starting job, with the Yankees or the also-rumored Rays, I believe he could shine once again just like back in the day.  He's only 33 and has shown he has a lot of power still.  I worry though, that at his age and that he has played in an average of only 88 games per season since 2008, he could lose interest and confidence in baseball if he doesn't get the chance to contribute to a winning team.  At 407 career home runs, he could easily make it to 500 with a few good seasons.
-The Cardinals are "hopeful" that they can resign first baseman Albert Pujols to a big deal before the season starts, at which time Pujols will no longer negotiate until after the season.  If the Cardinals don't get a deal done this spring, they will have a very short exclusive time to negotiate in the fall before Pujols hits the open market- a scary thought to all Cardinals fans.  Well I think they'd better hurry up and give the man the money he wants or just not do it at all, because he has made the franchise over the last decade and should be given the decency to know his fate.
-The Tigers will gamble on starter Brad Penny for $3.3 million, most likely filling their #5 spot in the rotation.  The Tigers could use a reliable veteran in the rotation, and Penny did well in nine starts for the Giants in 2010.  After five good years with the Dodgers, Penny was a bust for the Red Sox in 2009, but has always pitched well in his season and a half for San Francisco.  The question that remains is, how will he adjust to this change?  We'll see soon enough.

MLB Roots

Just this offseason, the Cubs have snagged two franchise players from the Tampa Bay Rays.  It got me wondering; how many former Rays are on the current Cubs team?  How many of every other team?  So I did a little research.  Below are all the players on the current active roster and the teams they have been on before the Cubs, if applicable.  Below all the players are the totals.

Pitchers
Justin Berg: N/A
Alberto Cabrera: N/A
Esmailin Caridad: N/A
Andrew Cashner: N/A
Casey Coleman: N/A
Ryan Dempster: Florida, Cincinnati
Thomas Diamond: N/A
Rafael Dolis: N/A
Matt Garza: Minnesota, Tampa Bay
John Gaub: N/A
Tom Gorzelanny: Pittsburgh
John Grabow: Pittsburgh
Scott Maine: N/A
Carlos Marmol: N/A
Sean Marshall: N/A
Marcos Mateo: N/A
James Russell: N/A
Jeff Samardzija: N/A
Carlos Silva: Philadelphia, Minnesota, Seattle
Kyle Smit: N/A
Jeff Stevens: N/A
Randy Wells: N/A
Kerry Wood: Cleveland, New York (AL)
Carlos Zambrano: N/A

Catchers
Welington Castillo: N/A
Koyie Hill: Arizona
Max Ramirez: Texas
Geovany Soto: N/A

Infielders
Jeff Baker: Colorado
Darwin Barney: N/A
Starlin Castro: N/A
Blake DeWitt: Los Angeles (NL)
Carlos Pena: Texas, Detroit, Boston, Tampa Bay
Aramis Ramirez: Pittsburgh

Outfielders
Marlon Byrd: Philadelphia, Washington, Texas
Tyler Colvin: N/A
Kosuke Fukudome: N/A
Fernando Perez: Tampa Bay
Alfonso Soriano: New York (AL), Texas, Washington


Players Per Team
4 Players:
Texas

3 Players:
Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh

2 Players:
Washington
New York (AL)
Philadelphia
Minnesota

1 Player:
Boston
Detroit
Arizona
Colorado
Los Angeles (NL)
Cleveland
Seattle
Florida
Cincinnati

As you can see, the pitchers, especially the relievers, have very little experience with any team except the Cubs.  The bullpen has a lot of young talent in it these days; more veterans can be found in the outfield and infield.  Interestingly, the Cubs have been getting younger in the last couple years and have more players with no other team in MLB experience.  And although the Texas Rangers have seen more current Cubs in the past than any other team, they also make up key roster spots including three critical offensive players (Max Ramirez, Carlos Pena, Marlon Byrd, and Alfonso Soriano).  These are the roots of the 2011 Cubs.

Cubs Acquire Matt Garza

Although the big trade for Matt Garza is not yet official and the details have yet to be released, the deal already looks like quite the impressive one for Cubs GM Jim Hendry.  The Cubs are sending catcher Robinson Chirinos, starting pitcher Chris Archer, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee (photo, left), outfielder Brandon Guyer, and outfielder Sam Fuld for Matt Garza, outfielder Fernando Perez, and an unknown Minor League pitcher whose name should be released soon.  In David Kaplan's article on Comcast SportsNet Chicago's website, he includes quotes from some experts on the potential results of the deal.

"Chris Archer is a very good prospect with excellent upside. Lee, Guyer, Chirinos are all nice players. Sam Fuld is a journeyman. Garza has a chance to be a No. 1 starter. I like the deal from a Chicago perspective a lot," says Jim Kallis, a Minor League expert of Baseball America.


 "The Cubs gave up some good players and depth, but did not give up any elite stars. Garza is 27-years-old, is injury free and has the potential to be a No. 1 starter. Plus, you have him under cost control for three years. That's a very impressive trade by Jim Hendry," says Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus.


Garza has a lot of upside because many baseball experts have him becoming a top of the rotation ace, a guy who could win you 15 games especially now that he's in the National League and most of the hitters haven't seen him before.  Traditionally, when a batter and pitcher face for the first time, the pitcher has the advantage because even if the batter, for example, likes the ball up and in, then the pitcher can do his homework and change his strategy before the game and the hitter has to make adjustments in real time.  The pitcher can change his tendencies and locations to each hitter, while the hitter has to hit although the pitcher already knows where he struggles and will most definitely pitch there.  


In 2011, the top three of the Cubs rotation look great as of now.  With Ryan Dempster as the ace, Matt Garza following Dempster and Carlos Zambrano following Garza, the trio should produce 40 wins.  Dempster is and Garza are, barring injury, locks for 10 wins and Zambrano, of course assuming he controls his anger this season, could do the same.  It seems like we were in the same position with Zambrano as we were last season: we knew that if he could control his emotions then he could be the ace he used to be.  This offseason, however, there is a distinct difference.  Towards the end of 2009, his velocity fell and his fastball seemed flat compared to his former, hard throwing self.  Towards the end of 2010, his velocity was still down but he was winning games because he learned how to locate.  During Zambrano's 8-0 run late last season after returning from anger management, he could be seen locating his pitches where he hadn't before and with more consistency than ever.  Zambrano appears more prepared to win next season, and now won't be dependent on his velocity.  So he should be more reliable in 2011.  Dempster is as reliable as anybody and Garza has been injury and major slump free his whole career.  Right now on the North Side, things look good. 

Is Matt Garza Worth It?

Ben Nicholson-Smith of mlbtr.com reports that GM Jim Hendry is trying very hard for Matt Garza in a deal that would send Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Chris Archer, and Brandon Guyer.  Garza is 42-44 in his career with a 3.97 career ERA, playing his career with the Twins and Rays.  He is 27 and has pitched 592.1 innings over the last three years, including at least 200 in the last two.  Garza will be an innings eater no matter where he goes but could become even better with the possible move to the National League, especially moving out of the powerful AL East.  There's no doubt that he is a great pitcher and could win 15 games, and is exactly the kind of guy the Cubs need, but he comes at a high price.

As I said yesterday about a possible trade for B.J. Upton, Chris Archer is the top pitching prospect in the Cubs organization.  If we are able to get Garza, Archer could be a guy we no longer need.  Hak-Ju Lee, a man I called the Korean Jose Reyes before the 2010 season, has fantastic speed and has shown it over the last two seasons.  He is the guy I would be most concerned about parting with; he could be a breakout player down the road.  But the fact is that the Rays have Reid Brignac at shortstop after trading away Jason Bartlett, and Brignac will never be a starting infielder in his career.  Lee is the speed that the Cubs need in the future, and trading him would add a lot of risk that he would burn us and become a star.  Guyer ripped through AA ball hitting a ridiculous .344 with 13 homers and 58 RBI in 102 games.  Guyer plays all three outfield positions, but that doesn't necessarily help his chances of making the Major League version of the Cubs.  He also stole 30 bases in 2010 and is a future 20/20 talent in the Majors.  But the Cubs have Tyler Colvin, Marlon Byrd, Alfonso Soriano, and Kosuke Fukudome in the outfield rotation and the Cubs would not want Guyer sitting on the bench playing every once in a while.  None of those four outfielders appear to be going anywhere soon, so Guyer is out of luck.  He's like Tyler Colvin, but with a lot of speed.  I think the Cubs would love to have him, but there's not room so he should be traded.  Chirinos isn't a youngster anymore at 27, an average hitting catcher who isn't anything special.  The Cubs don't have a necessity for him.

To the Cubs:
SP Matt Garza

To the Rays:
SP Chris Archer
SS Hak-Ju Lee
OF Brandon Guyer
C Robinson Chirinos

The Verdict: Pull the trigger.  If the Cubs acquire Matt Garza, this should be a winning season and the NL Central should be weak in 2011, giving the Cubs a shot at the division title.  Garza would give the Cubs a rotation of Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells, and Tom Gorzelanny or Carlos Silva.  An adequate rotation, to say the least.  Just reading that rotation is exciting!  Let's hope Hendry figures it out.

Speed Thrill Skill

Back in late July at the Trade Deadline, when Ryan Theriot was traded to the Dodgers, I predicted that Jim Hendry would acquire some kind of speed in the offseason.  He has yet to do so, and the clock is ticking.  Theriot stole 16 bases in four months of Cubs baseball, but he still led the team.  Besides him, the 2010 Cubs were led in steals by Starlin Castro with 10; while being caught eight times.  Castro is raw and one can expect production of 20+ steals in the future with his speed, but his development can really be relied upon as the team's main source of speed.  Behind Castro was Kosuke Fukudome with seven; he was also caught a ridiculous eight times.  Speed is clearly a problem and has not been a strength for the Cubs in quite some time.  The last prototypical leadoff man on the North Side was none other than Kenny Lofton; and he lasted three months.  The player I suggest the Cubs try to acquire is not a prototypical leadoff man either, but he is much closer to it than anyone the Cubs have.  The name is B.J. Upton, a 26 year old center fielder playing for Tampa Bay.  Upton has 20/20 potential (he did this in 2007); hell, he has 20/40 potential.  Upton has arguably one of the best five tool skill sets in baseball, but he has yet to put it all together.  He possesses the following abilities: hitting for average (.300 in 2007), decent power (24 homers in 2007), decent run production (82 RBI in 2007), improving plate discipline (97 BB in 2009), good overall scoring (89 runs in 2010), excellent speed (128 steals since 2008), good outfield range (1.5 defensive WAR in 2008), and good on-base percentage (.383 in 2008).  As a big B.J. fan, I've been waiting for a breakout year for quite some time now.  Perhaps a change of scenery is in order.  The Rays, now in a rebuilding mode, aren't going to let him run off for nothing, however.  So here is the trade I propose:

To the Cubs:
CF B.J. Upton
1B Dan Johnson

To the Rays:
RF Kosuke Fukudome (Cubs work out some kind of salary arrangement)
SP Chris Archer
RP James Russell
C Welington Castillo

The Rays, although they have already acquired a few relievers in Cesar Ramos and Joel Peralta, but need more and James Russell is a guy they can work on to make him into an effective middle reliever.  Russell is never going to be a standout player in his career, but he should be a reliable and effective middle reliever for at least a bunch of years.  Chris Archer is the top pitching prospect in the Cubs system, someone the Cubs front office has been excitedly anticipating for a while now.  He can start, but would probably end up in the bullpen with the Rays depth of starters.  Archer is the key prize and centerpiece of this deal.  Kosuke Fukudome has been someone the Rays have discussed in the past and they would be willing to take him but the Cubs would probably have to pay for more than half of his salary.  Fukudome probably has one more chance with a Major League team before his career starts falling apart.  He needs to prove himself, and fast.  Welington Castillo is a prospect the Rays can throw into the catching core that already includes John Jaso, Kelly Shoppach, and Dioner Navarro.  But neither Navarro nor Shoppach hit well enough anymore to have an everyday job, and certainly by the end of next season one of them will not be with the Rays.  It's no secret the Rays aren't afraid to talk trade involving Shoppach namely.

The Cubs get the main guy, B.J. Upton, and first baseman Dan Johnson just to add some depth to the infield.  With Xavier Nady signing with the Diamondbacks, the Cubs no longer have a backup first baseman and will be stuck with Jeff Baker instead, who shouldn't be playing over there.  Baker is an okay infielder, but he shouldn't be the backup for the entire infield and Johnson gives the Cubs a veteran who won't do much offensively but will do enough defensively and give Carlos Pena a little break every once in a while.  Johnson was also played at third base for a short time with the Rays, and this could be something the Cubs experiment with as well.

The upsides to this deal are enormous.  With Upton, the Cubs would offensively be a playoff caliber team just one season after looking lost and disinterested at the plate.  If they could add a veteran starter, these Cubs could make it over the .500 mark.  But speed is crucial.  We don't want the opposing pitchers to be comfortable to pitch and not be distracted by a potential base stealer.  We also don't want to be reliant on hits to move guys around like we did last season.  If Jim Hendry doesn't acquire Upton, which is by far the more likely option, then just pray he gets some kind of speed on this team.  It could be a long, and slow, summer without that speed thrill skill.  

Hot Stove Buzz #4

First, I hope everyone had an enjoyable and restful holiday season.  Second, I apologize for the recent lack of posts and I can guarantee that more are coming- and soon.  The news feed from baseball's offseason has slowed considerably, which has been a factor in the recent lack of posts.  However, big news out of Baltimore, for Cubs fans at least, in the Orioles' signing of first baseman Derrek Lee.  With newly-acquired power-hitting third baseman Mark Reynolds on the other side of the infield, the Orioles now, believe it or not, look like a team that will make a bang on offense.  Lee, of course, spent seven seasons with the Cubs before being traded to the Braves in 2010 and becoming a free agent.

-The Angels may have just looked at strike three.  Rumors had the Rangers, not their division rival Angels, getting third baseman Adrian Beltre in a big multiyear deal.  According to the same rumors, however, Monday and Sunday were two very different days in these negotiations.  Now they appear to be much farther away from a deal than was originally thought.  Folks, this one could take a while.

-The Rangers signed Brandon Webb, meaning the Cubs didn't.  However, the search for veteran middle-of-the-rotation starters continues for the Cubbies, as this is possibly our biggest need remaining.

-The Pirates signed Garrett Atkins.  Now I know I trashed Pittsburgh's signing of Lyle Overbay a couple weeks ago, but this makes things interesting.  If they could get a sample of the production Atkins used to come up for Colorado, Atkins and Overbay could be an effective combo.  It's a shame to see two formerly great veterans struggle to fall out of relevance like they have, but that's baseball and they should be glad to have a new opportunity in the Steel City.

-In today's biggest news, the Rockies gave Carlos Gonzalez a big extension for 7 years and $80 million.  The first thing that came to my mind was, wow, smart move by the Rockies.  Then I wondered, wait, now they've signed two (Troy Tulowitzki) franchise players to huge extensions?  That's nearly unheard of especially for a team like the Rockies who have signed big contracts (Todd Helton, Mike Hampton), but haven't done two in the same offseason.  Also, I'm pretty sure the Rockies wanted this extension done right now before he has another elite season because his stock will raise and he would probably demand more by then.  As far as contract extensions go, the Rockies successfully pulled off a nice little, but huge, budget shopping deal.

-The Padres signed Brad Hawpe.  This may be surprising based on his high strikeout totals and somewhat funky batting stance and swing, but Hawpe, until 2010, has been a great average hitter his whole career.  Also, excluding 2010 again, he has been very consistent in the power numbers.  Somewhere in the mid-20s in his homer range and mid-80s in his runs batted in range.

-The Blue Jays signed Chad Cordero, a name you may have forgotten.  Cordero was an elite reliever from 2004-2007 closing games from 2005 onward and could arguably be called the best player during the Nationals' three-year stay at RFK Stadium.  When the Nats moved to Nationals Park in 2008, he sort of was left behind.  A surgery and recovery complications limited him since and he has not been good at all in the very limited time he has pitched in the last three years.  The Blue Jays, watching their division improve around them, need to stack up as many moves as they can to keep up.  This is a good piece to the puzzle.

-The Jays didn't stop there, getting the veteran reliever Octavio Dotel in a free agent signing as well.  Besides being one of the most overrated players on the video game series MLB: The Show, Dotel is 36 and didn't have a great 2010 between three teams.  Interestingly though, Dotel still has the strikeout stuff that made his career owning a career 10.9 K/9 ratio.  In 2010, that ratio was 10.5 K/9, just a tick below.  Remember the Jays lost elite setup man Scott Downs in free agency, but could have a short term replacement right here.

-The Reds signed a trainwreck of an outfielder who will never live up to his potential Jeremy Hermida to a minor league deal, suggesting he will just be a backup plan on the 2011 Reds.  Hermida had high expectations coming up with the Marlins about four years ago, but has never really taken the next step.  He is stuck at Tyler Colvin stat levels, but with more strikeouts and without the rookie benefit-of-the-doubt factor.