1. Cliff Lee - Yankees. It will be a serious upset if anyone but the Yankees gets one of the best starters in baseball in Lee. Lee beat the Yankees twice in the ALCS in eliminating the Yankees on his way to the World Series, and if the Yankees get beat by a top player they are double as likely to get him the next offseason.
2. Carl Crawford - Tigers. With a bunch of huge contracts (Magglio Ordonez, Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, etc.) coming off the books, the Tigers are revved up to spend big time dough. Crawford is a great fit for the spacious gaps of Comerica Park making a great duo between him and Austin Jackson. A Detroit team that appeared lifeless at times last year could use this spark plug.
3. Adrian Beltre - Angels. The Angels are also looking to spend and will be in the Crawford sweepstakes, but this should be their top guy. Beltre is coming off a tremendous season with the Red Sox and the Angels want a definite power bat in the middle of the order more than a bunch of aging but somewhat effective veterans (Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, Torii Hunter).
4. Jayson Werth - Red Sox. The Red Sox have to make their annual splash, and the fan base craves a sturdy left fielder after a season with a revolving door in front of the Green Monster. Nine players played in left field for Boston in 2010, and the Red Sox also love his power bat.
5. Adam Dunn - Cubs. An admitted lover of hitting at Wrigley Field, the Cubs will need a power hitting lefty first baseman to contend in 2011. The Tigers and White Sox will also be in competition for the veteran, but Dunn will end up with the Cubs for the first reason and also because of his past relationship with GM Jim Hendry, whom Dunn knows from their days in Cincinnati.
7. Rafael Soriano - White Sox. The Angels are the favorite in this race, but the White Sox have lost almost all trust in Bobby Jenks are unlikely to want to have him as closer again. GM Ken Williams always pulls off a few eye openers in the offseason, this being probably his biggest. Williams, more often than not, gets his man.
8. Mariano Rivera - Yankees. Tight race between the Yankees and Diamonbacks. Yeah right.
10. Derek Jeter - Yankees. See: Rivera, Mariano. The Yankees are going to severely overpay for Jeter who is no longer an above average defender and earned another Gold Glove he doesn't deserve. As the face of the Yankees franchise, there's pretty much no chance he will be playing anywhere but The House That Jeter Built (New Yankee Stadium) in 2011.
11. Hiroki Kuroda - Dodgers. Kuroda could be an under the radar signing somewhere else, but the Dodgers like his durability and reliability. For a team lacking in a true ace, Kuroda should be a solid middle rotation starter.
12. Jorge De La Rosa - Rockies. A lefty middle rotation guy, he has some caution flags stuck on his shoulder, that being his control problems that have plagued him when has been ineffective. Even when playing to his potential, he walks too many batters. The kind of player rebuilding teams target, the Nationals, Royals, and Pirates have been linked to him as well.
14. Jake Westbrook - Cardinals. A low drama deal, the Cardinals will pay the man his money because they still need depth behind Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Westbrook probably isn't the best they can do, but he's willing to come back and will take some innings.
15. Aubrey Huff - Giants. 2010's best bargain deal was Huff who hit 26 homers and led the Giants to the championship for only $3 million. The Giants certainly won't want him to guy, they will get him back.
17. Carlos Pena - Nationals. A player to watch right here. Pena couldn't even bat .200 in 2010 but still hit 28 homers. With his stock taking a big hit with the low average, Pena could easily regain his status as one of the American League's best first basemen as he plays the field well and led the AL in homers with 39 in 2009.
18. Jim Thome - Twins. For all Thome did for the Twins, he should be given one more year as the DH. Worst case scenario, Thome ends up being traded at the deadline.
19. Vladimir Guerrero - Rangers. Although the Rangers declined their $9 million option on Guerrero, they want him back. Guerrero will likely have to take a pay cut if he stays with the Rangers, but he is inclined to stay while Texas is a winner.
21. Magglio Ordonez - Blue Jays. As evidenced by their signing of Frank Thomas in 2007, the Jays are willing to roll the dice on veterans past their prime. Playing half the season of 2010, he surprised many with the return of his power that escaped him in 2009. His 37 year old bat seems to have plenty in it as he still hit .300 in 2010 for the 10th time in the last 12 seasons. Expect a one or two year deal.
22. Orlando Hudson - Padres. A free agent again, the O-Dog will end up in San Diego because of his positive attitude and veteran status among a very young team. Hudson is very consistent and the Padres need to improve on their team batting average, something he can help the team with.
23. Derrek Lee - Brewers. With Prince Fielder very likely to be traded, this trade would give Milwaukee an able bat to replace some of Fielder's production. Lee can be picked up with a discount as his stock fell after a disappointing 2010. The Orioles and Diamondbacks have also been mentioned.
24. Lance Berkman - Mariners. It's no secret the Big Puma's bat has faded significantly. He could provide a little value, though, as whatever he'll hit is most definitely better than whoever else the Mariners could start. With Berkman, though, there are lots of teams that have a little interest; no front runners.
25. Andy Pettitte - Yankees. Right now, he's playing the whole 'I need to be with my family' card but the truth is this guy is a true ballplayer and loves the game. The Yankees would love to have him because amazingly he keeps returning and pitching well. If he's not out there on a roster by Opening Day, I will be shocked.
27. A.J. Pierzynski - Red Sox. Pierzynski was the favorite to join the Florida Marlins, but they picked the Red Sox's top option in John Buck. The Red Sox will take Pierzynski instead, providing great insurance for Jason Varitek. Pierzynski was quoted as saying the Red Sox, among a few other teams, "would all be good fits."
28. Miguel Olivo - Dodgers. Whatever happened to Russell Martin, it sounds like the Dodgers have had with him. Olivo is one of the best offensive catchers in baseball and plays in small, usually losing markets which is why he flies under the radar so much. What a treat, now he gets to play for a contender.
29. John Buck - Marlins. Speaking of early birds, the Marlins and Buck beat me to this post and agreed to a three year deal already earlier this week. Buck was the huge favorite to land the Red Sox job, but instead takes Florida where he's the best catcher they have seen since Ivan Rodriguez.
31. Scott Downs - Yankees. Playing for the Blue Jays, the Yankees have seen Downs a lot. Thus increasing his chances of becoming one. The race for Downs will go between the Red Sox and Yankees, but remember which team has seemingly unlimited resources. Hint, not the Red Sox.
32. J.J. Putz - Dodgers. After having a mid career crisis with the Mets that included injuries, Putz has gotten his stuff back. The Dodgers use their bullpen more than almost every team in the league and those cannot go to George Sherrill again, whose 6.69 ERA was surprising and just terrible. Putz should replace him behind Jonathan Broxton, or replace him in the event of another period of struggle for Broxton.
33. Brian Fuentes - Braves. Atlanta already has a great bullpen, but they could use a veteran to close games and need a closer after the retirement of Billy Wagner. Fuentes blows more than a few saves, but thankfully they have the depth to cover the void.
35. Hisanori Takahashi - Phillies. Another under the radar pitcher, Takahashi could start for the Phillies if they want him to. The Phillies like his flexibility, but so do the Nationals, Orioles, and Mariners.
36. Pat Burrell - Braves. The Giants, unlike the Rays, saw that Burrell can still hit. They also saw he still can't run or field. The Braves outfield was a weakness last season but the addition of Burrell, along with the move of Martin Prado, could make it better. The Padres need a slugger though, and so do the Mariners.
37. Joaquin Benoit - Rays. The Rays are in serious trouble as their top six relievers are free agents. If the Rays could bring back one of them, however, it probably would be Benoit who was unhittable in 2010. Interest is not lacking by any means, the Tigers, Red Sox, and Yankees all want him and the Rays will need a great offer to compete with the bigger market teams.
38. Kevin Millwood - Brewers. The Brewers are constantly on the hunt for pitching and the signing of Randy Wolf last offseason didn't go as well as planned. Millwood is just the kind of pitcher the Brewers would sign, a veteran whose price tag is cut because of his struggles in Baltimore and a bad contract in Texas. The Royals, Mariners, Pirates, and Padres are four teams that also want him, but only one is a contender and with all these offers Millwood can probably choose where he wants to go.
40. Arthur Rhodes - Reds. As long as he is pitching well, there's no reason for the Reds to deny the 41 year old reliever. The Reds need the bullpen stacked with guys who can pitch around Aroldis Chapman, their top reliever who threw the fastest pitch in history in 2010. Many teams could use the lefty, the Phillies being one, but the Reds are the most likely to keep him.
