The Pick 13 Plan

It's on the radio, it's in the newspapers, and it's available on cubs.com for a minimum of around $200.  It's the Pick 13 Plan, the latest ticketing package introduced by the Cubs- something the Cubs don't do many of.  The advertisements for the plan feature a potential shortstop battle between Starlin Castro and Derek Jeter when the Yankees come to Wrigley Field in June for the first time since 2003.  Castro is not a household shortstop name in the Major Leagues like a Hanley Ramirez or somebody, so this whole shortstop showdown thing is probably premature.  The Cubs, however, don't have anyone else who resembles a franchise player any more than Castro and the Cubs Marketing wants to capitalize on the fact that he was just a rookie and has not shown us his full potential yet.  Basically, a player in the Minors on Opening Day 2010 is now the face of the Chicago Cubs.  Or that what the Cubs are making him look like at least.  But the 'battle' between Castro and Jeter may be significant for another reason this summer.

Castro, 21 in 2011, made his Major League debut in 2010.  Although he showed that there are areas of his game, like fielding, where he needs work, and that he was probably rushed to the Majors, he was an exciting player to watch down the stretch.  If for no other reason, he broke the monotonous rhythm of the 2010 Cubs season.  The Cubs were the 12th oldest team in MLB in 2010, but unlike most of the other veteran teams like Texas and Philadelphia, they weren't winning.  Castro was a new, young spark and although he didn't exactly ignite the team with his play, he suggested he may do so in the future.  Castro is most likely a face that Cub fans will be seeing for at least a few more years and possibly more, if he lives up to his hype.

Jeter, 37 in 2011, made his Major League debut in 1995, just five years after Castro was born.  Jeter was the American League Rookie of the Year in 1996, and has been an All-Star 11 times since, finishing the top 10 in MVP voting seven times.  Jeter was the best shortstop of the 2000s and will most likely eclipse 3000 career hits during the 2011 season.  Clearly, Jeter has accomplished much more in MLB.  He's signed with the Yankees through 2013 with a player option for the following year, but that will probably be the end of his career.  2010 was one of Jeter's worst seasons and didn't deserve to be an All-Star, a pattern that could continue as Jeter continues to age.  He hit just .270, his worst average ever in a full season.  One stat summed up his poor season; his WAR was just 1.3, after 6.5 in 2009 and 68.8 in his career before that.

The significance of this upcoming Yankees-Cubs series, I think, is this could be the changing of the guard for elite shortstops in baseball.  The odds that Castro will repeat Jeter's career are highly unlikely, but nonetheless, Castro will be a great shortstop for some time and Jeter will retain popularity but fade in importance to the Yankees and drift off to Cooperstown in probably eight years, as Jeter will be a first ballot Hall of Famer for sure.  Castro could be the face of the Cubs in the 2010s, and Jeter definitely won't for the Yankees.  After the series is over, the two will head in opposite directions.  So when all anybody is talking about on ESPN is the Yankees and Cubs this June, take a moment to observe the past  and the future.

Hot Stove Buzz #5

NOTE: This is the 100th post in the history of the Cubs Insider blog!  Thank you!

-If there's Cubs news out there, it should come first.  And here it is.  Reed Johnson, the defensive whiz Cub fans love from his tenure at Wrigley between 2008 and 2009, has been signed by the Cubs to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training.  Despite seeing action in just 174 games and getting just 560 plate appearances between the two seasons due to injury and his bench role, he still quickly became a fan favorite for his hustle and unbelievable otherworldly defensive skills.  While his arm isn't the best by any means, he covers a lot of ground and almost seems to enjoy diving and crashing into stuff to make a catch.  For intense Cub fans, the catch he made in the top photo will be remembered for quite some time.  Actually, so will the photo below that.  The bottom line is, it looks like the Cubs have their fifth outfielder.  Fernando Perez looked like the favorite to be the team's fifth outfielder if five outfielders where going to make the roster; that being in spite of the fact that Perez likely needs more seasoning in the minors.  It will be hard to find Johnson playing time in a five man rotation with four guys already dying to play everyday, but don't be surprised to see Johnson sneak his way in the lineup from time to time.
-In other news, baseball's all-time saves leader in Trevor Hoffman retired today.  With 601 saves, he is the only man to reach the 600 mark but likely will be overpassed by Mariano Rivera, who got 500 in June 2009 and has 559 heading into 2011.  Hoffman had a really, really bad 2010 and although he was able to get to the big 600 mark, it's sad to see players once so great struggle like this.  Ken Griffey, Jr. went through the same thing in 2010, and it's just sad to see players who used to mean so much to fans just kind of fade off into retirement after a bad year and few people wanting them to come back.
-The Yankees have been looking at outfielder Andruw Jones for a while.  Jones went way under the radar in 2010, hitting only .230 but also hitting 19 homers in slightly more than half a season's worth of at-bats.  If he were given the keys to a starting job, with the Yankees or the also-rumored Rays, I believe he could shine once again just like back in the day.  He's only 33 and has shown he has a lot of power still.  I worry though, that at his age and that he has played in an average of only 88 games per season since 2008, he could lose interest and confidence in baseball if he doesn't get the chance to contribute to a winning team.  At 407 career home runs, he could easily make it to 500 with a few good seasons.
-The Cardinals are "hopeful" that they can resign first baseman Albert Pujols to a big deal before the season starts, at which time Pujols will no longer negotiate until after the season.  If the Cardinals don't get a deal done this spring, they will have a very short exclusive time to negotiate in the fall before Pujols hits the open market- a scary thought to all Cardinals fans.  Well I think they'd better hurry up and give the man the money he wants or just not do it at all, because he has made the franchise over the last decade and should be given the decency to know his fate.
-The Tigers will gamble on starter Brad Penny for $3.3 million, most likely filling their #5 spot in the rotation.  The Tigers could use a reliable veteran in the rotation, and Penny did well in nine starts for the Giants in 2010.  After five good years with the Dodgers, Penny was a bust for the Red Sox in 2009, but has always pitched well in his season and a half for San Francisco.  The question that remains is, how will he adjust to this change?  We'll see soon enough.

MLB Roots

Just this offseason, the Cubs have snagged two franchise players from the Tampa Bay Rays.  It got me wondering; how many former Rays are on the current Cubs team?  How many of every other team?  So I did a little research.  Below are all the players on the current active roster and the teams they have been on before the Cubs, if applicable.  Below all the players are the totals.

Pitchers
Justin Berg: N/A
Alberto Cabrera: N/A
Esmailin Caridad: N/A
Andrew Cashner: N/A
Casey Coleman: N/A
Ryan Dempster: Florida, Cincinnati
Thomas Diamond: N/A
Rafael Dolis: N/A
Matt Garza: Minnesota, Tampa Bay
John Gaub: N/A
Tom Gorzelanny: Pittsburgh
John Grabow: Pittsburgh
Scott Maine: N/A
Carlos Marmol: N/A
Sean Marshall: N/A
Marcos Mateo: N/A
James Russell: N/A
Jeff Samardzija: N/A
Carlos Silva: Philadelphia, Minnesota, Seattle
Kyle Smit: N/A
Jeff Stevens: N/A
Randy Wells: N/A
Kerry Wood: Cleveland, New York (AL)
Carlos Zambrano: N/A

Catchers
Welington Castillo: N/A
Koyie Hill: Arizona
Max Ramirez: Texas
Geovany Soto: N/A

Infielders
Jeff Baker: Colorado
Darwin Barney: N/A
Starlin Castro: N/A
Blake DeWitt: Los Angeles (NL)
Carlos Pena: Texas, Detroit, Boston, Tampa Bay
Aramis Ramirez: Pittsburgh

Outfielders
Marlon Byrd: Philadelphia, Washington, Texas
Tyler Colvin: N/A
Kosuke Fukudome: N/A
Fernando Perez: Tampa Bay
Alfonso Soriano: New York (AL), Texas, Washington


Players Per Team
4 Players:
Texas

3 Players:
Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh

2 Players:
Washington
New York (AL)
Philadelphia
Minnesota

1 Player:
Boston
Detroit
Arizona
Colorado
Los Angeles (NL)
Cleveland
Seattle
Florida
Cincinnati

As you can see, the pitchers, especially the relievers, have very little experience with any team except the Cubs.  The bullpen has a lot of young talent in it these days; more veterans can be found in the outfield and infield.  Interestingly, the Cubs have been getting younger in the last couple years and have more players with no other team in MLB experience.  And although the Texas Rangers have seen more current Cubs in the past than any other team, they also make up key roster spots including three critical offensive players (Max Ramirez, Carlos Pena, Marlon Byrd, and Alfonso Soriano).  These are the roots of the 2011 Cubs.

Cubs Acquire Matt Garza

Although the big trade for Matt Garza is not yet official and the details have yet to be released, the deal already looks like quite the impressive one for Cubs GM Jim Hendry.  The Cubs are sending catcher Robinson Chirinos, starting pitcher Chris Archer, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee (photo, left), outfielder Brandon Guyer, and outfielder Sam Fuld for Matt Garza, outfielder Fernando Perez, and an unknown Minor League pitcher whose name should be released soon.  In David Kaplan's article on Comcast SportsNet Chicago's website, he includes quotes from some experts on the potential results of the deal.

"Chris Archer is a very good prospect with excellent upside. Lee, Guyer, Chirinos are all nice players. Sam Fuld is a journeyman. Garza has a chance to be a No. 1 starter. I like the deal from a Chicago perspective a lot," says Jim Kallis, a Minor League expert of Baseball America.


 "The Cubs gave up some good players and depth, but did not give up any elite stars. Garza is 27-years-old, is injury free and has the potential to be a No. 1 starter. Plus, you have him under cost control for three years. That's a very impressive trade by Jim Hendry," says Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus.


Garza has a lot of upside because many baseball experts have him becoming a top of the rotation ace, a guy who could win you 15 games especially now that he's in the National League and most of the hitters haven't seen him before.  Traditionally, when a batter and pitcher face for the first time, the pitcher has the advantage because even if the batter, for example, likes the ball up and in, then the pitcher can do his homework and change his strategy before the game and the hitter has to make adjustments in real time.  The pitcher can change his tendencies and locations to each hitter, while the hitter has to hit although the pitcher already knows where he struggles and will most definitely pitch there.  


In 2011, the top three of the Cubs rotation look great as of now.  With Ryan Dempster as the ace, Matt Garza following Dempster and Carlos Zambrano following Garza, the trio should produce 40 wins.  Dempster is and Garza are, barring injury, locks for 10 wins and Zambrano, of course assuming he controls his anger this season, could do the same.  It seems like we were in the same position with Zambrano as we were last season: we knew that if he could control his emotions then he could be the ace he used to be.  This offseason, however, there is a distinct difference.  Towards the end of 2009, his velocity fell and his fastball seemed flat compared to his former, hard throwing self.  Towards the end of 2010, his velocity was still down but he was winning games because he learned how to locate.  During Zambrano's 8-0 run late last season after returning from anger management, he could be seen locating his pitches where he hadn't before and with more consistency than ever.  Zambrano appears more prepared to win next season, and now won't be dependent on his velocity.  So he should be more reliable in 2011.  Dempster is as reliable as anybody and Garza has been injury and major slump free his whole career.  Right now on the North Side, things look good. 

Is Matt Garza Worth It?

Ben Nicholson-Smith of mlbtr.com reports that GM Jim Hendry is trying very hard for Matt Garza in a deal that would send Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Chris Archer, and Brandon Guyer.  Garza is 42-44 in his career with a 3.97 career ERA, playing his career with the Twins and Rays.  He is 27 and has pitched 592.1 innings over the last three years, including at least 200 in the last two.  Garza will be an innings eater no matter where he goes but could become even better with the possible move to the National League, especially moving out of the powerful AL East.  There's no doubt that he is a great pitcher and could win 15 games, and is exactly the kind of guy the Cubs need, but he comes at a high price.

As I said yesterday about a possible trade for B.J. Upton, Chris Archer is the top pitching prospect in the Cubs organization.  If we are able to get Garza, Archer could be a guy we no longer need.  Hak-Ju Lee, a man I called the Korean Jose Reyes before the 2010 season, has fantastic speed and has shown it over the last two seasons.  He is the guy I would be most concerned about parting with; he could be a breakout player down the road.  But the fact is that the Rays have Reid Brignac at shortstop after trading away Jason Bartlett, and Brignac will never be a starting infielder in his career.  Lee is the speed that the Cubs need in the future, and trading him would add a lot of risk that he would burn us and become a star.  Guyer ripped through AA ball hitting a ridiculous .344 with 13 homers and 58 RBI in 102 games.  Guyer plays all three outfield positions, but that doesn't necessarily help his chances of making the Major League version of the Cubs.  He also stole 30 bases in 2010 and is a future 20/20 talent in the Majors.  But the Cubs have Tyler Colvin, Marlon Byrd, Alfonso Soriano, and Kosuke Fukudome in the outfield rotation and the Cubs would not want Guyer sitting on the bench playing every once in a while.  None of those four outfielders appear to be going anywhere soon, so Guyer is out of luck.  He's like Tyler Colvin, but with a lot of speed.  I think the Cubs would love to have him, but there's not room so he should be traded.  Chirinos isn't a youngster anymore at 27, an average hitting catcher who isn't anything special.  The Cubs don't have a necessity for him.

To the Cubs:
SP Matt Garza

To the Rays:
SP Chris Archer
SS Hak-Ju Lee
OF Brandon Guyer
C Robinson Chirinos

The Verdict: Pull the trigger.  If the Cubs acquire Matt Garza, this should be a winning season and the NL Central should be weak in 2011, giving the Cubs a shot at the division title.  Garza would give the Cubs a rotation of Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza, Carlos Zambrano, Randy Wells, and Tom Gorzelanny or Carlos Silva.  An adequate rotation, to say the least.  Just reading that rotation is exciting!  Let's hope Hendry figures it out.

Speed Thrill Skill

Back in late July at the Trade Deadline, when Ryan Theriot was traded to the Dodgers, I predicted that Jim Hendry would acquire some kind of speed in the offseason.  He has yet to do so, and the clock is ticking.  Theriot stole 16 bases in four months of Cubs baseball, but he still led the team.  Besides him, the 2010 Cubs were led in steals by Starlin Castro with 10; while being caught eight times.  Castro is raw and one can expect production of 20+ steals in the future with his speed, but his development can really be relied upon as the team's main source of speed.  Behind Castro was Kosuke Fukudome with seven; he was also caught a ridiculous eight times.  Speed is clearly a problem and has not been a strength for the Cubs in quite some time.  The last prototypical leadoff man on the North Side was none other than Kenny Lofton; and he lasted three months.  The player I suggest the Cubs try to acquire is not a prototypical leadoff man either, but he is much closer to it than anyone the Cubs have.  The name is B.J. Upton, a 26 year old center fielder playing for Tampa Bay.  Upton has 20/20 potential (he did this in 2007); hell, he has 20/40 potential.  Upton has arguably one of the best five tool skill sets in baseball, but he has yet to put it all together.  He possesses the following abilities: hitting for average (.300 in 2007), decent power (24 homers in 2007), decent run production (82 RBI in 2007), improving plate discipline (97 BB in 2009), good overall scoring (89 runs in 2010), excellent speed (128 steals since 2008), good outfield range (1.5 defensive WAR in 2008), and good on-base percentage (.383 in 2008).  As a big B.J. fan, I've been waiting for a breakout year for quite some time now.  Perhaps a change of scenery is in order.  The Rays, now in a rebuilding mode, aren't going to let him run off for nothing, however.  So here is the trade I propose:

To the Cubs:
CF B.J. Upton
1B Dan Johnson

To the Rays:
RF Kosuke Fukudome (Cubs work out some kind of salary arrangement)
SP Chris Archer
RP James Russell
C Welington Castillo

The Rays, although they have already acquired a few relievers in Cesar Ramos and Joel Peralta, but need more and James Russell is a guy they can work on to make him into an effective middle reliever.  Russell is never going to be a standout player in his career, but he should be a reliable and effective middle reliever for at least a bunch of years.  Chris Archer is the top pitching prospect in the Cubs system, someone the Cubs front office has been excitedly anticipating for a while now.  He can start, but would probably end up in the bullpen with the Rays depth of starters.  Archer is the key prize and centerpiece of this deal.  Kosuke Fukudome has been someone the Rays have discussed in the past and they would be willing to take him but the Cubs would probably have to pay for more than half of his salary.  Fukudome probably has one more chance with a Major League team before his career starts falling apart.  He needs to prove himself, and fast.  Welington Castillo is a prospect the Rays can throw into the catching core that already includes John Jaso, Kelly Shoppach, and Dioner Navarro.  But neither Navarro nor Shoppach hit well enough anymore to have an everyday job, and certainly by the end of next season one of them will not be with the Rays.  It's no secret the Rays aren't afraid to talk trade involving Shoppach namely.

The Cubs get the main guy, B.J. Upton, and first baseman Dan Johnson just to add some depth to the infield.  With Xavier Nady signing with the Diamondbacks, the Cubs no longer have a backup first baseman and will be stuck with Jeff Baker instead, who shouldn't be playing over there.  Baker is an okay infielder, but he shouldn't be the backup for the entire infield and Johnson gives the Cubs a veteran who won't do much offensively but will do enough defensively and give Carlos Pena a little break every once in a while.  Johnson was also played at third base for a short time with the Rays, and this could be something the Cubs experiment with as well.

The upsides to this deal are enormous.  With Upton, the Cubs would offensively be a playoff caliber team just one season after looking lost and disinterested at the plate.  If they could add a veteran starter, these Cubs could make it over the .500 mark.  But speed is crucial.  We don't want the opposing pitchers to be comfortable to pitch and not be distracted by a potential base stealer.  We also don't want to be reliant on hits to move guys around like we did last season.  If Jim Hendry doesn't acquire Upton, which is by far the more likely option, then just pray he gets some kind of speed on this team.  It could be a long, and slow, summer without that speed thrill skill.  

Hot Stove Buzz #4

First, I hope everyone had an enjoyable and restful holiday season.  Second, I apologize for the recent lack of posts and I can guarantee that more are coming- and soon.  The news feed from baseball's offseason has slowed considerably, which has been a factor in the recent lack of posts.  However, big news out of Baltimore, for Cubs fans at least, in the Orioles' signing of first baseman Derrek Lee.  With newly-acquired power-hitting third baseman Mark Reynolds on the other side of the infield, the Orioles now, believe it or not, look like a team that will make a bang on offense.  Lee, of course, spent seven seasons with the Cubs before being traded to the Braves in 2010 and becoming a free agent.

-The Angels may have just looked at strike three.  Rumors had the Rangers, not their division rival Angels, getting third baseman Adrian Beltre in a big multiyear deal.  According to the same rumors, however, Monday and Sunday were two very different days in these negotiations.  Now they appear to be much farther away from a deal than was originally thought.  Folks, this one could take a while.

-The Rangers signed Brandon Webb, meaning the Cubs didn't.  However, the search for veteran middle-of-the-rotation starters continues for the Cubbies, as this is possibly our biggest need remaining.

-The Pirates signed Garrett Atkins.  Now I know I trashed Pittsburgh's signing of Lyle Overbay a couple weeks ago, but this makes things interesting.  If they could get a sample of the production Atkins used to come up for Colorado, Atkins and Overbay could be an effective combo.  It's a shame to see two formerly great veterans struggle to fall out of relevance like they have, but that's baseball and they should be glad to have a new opportunity in the Steel City.

-In today's biggest news, the Rockies gave Carlos Gonzalez a big extension for 7 years and $80 million.  The first thing that came to my mind was, wow, smart move by the Rockies.  Then I wondered, wait, now they've signed two (Troy Tulowitzki) franchise players to huge extensions?  That's nearly unheard of especially for a team like the Rockies who have signed big contracts (Todd Helton, Mike Hampton), but haven't done two in the same offseason.  Also, I'm pretty sure the Rockies wanted this extension done right now before he has another elite season because his stock will raise and he would probably demand more by then.  As far as contract extensions go, the Rockies successfully pulled off a nice little, but huge, budget shopping deal.

-The Padres signed Brad Hawpe.  This may be surprising based on his high strikeout totals and somewhat funky batting stance and swing, but Hawpe, until 2010, has been a great average hitter his whole career.  Also, excluding 2010 again, he has been very consistent in the power numbers.  Somewhere in the mid-20s in his homer range and mid-80s in his runs batted in range.

-The Blue Jays signed Chad Cordero, a name you may have forgotten.  Cordero was an elite reliever from 2004-2007 closing games from 2005 onward and could arguably be called the best player during the Nationals' three-year stay at RFK Stadium.  When the Nats moved to Nationals Park in 2008, he sort of was left behind.  A surgery and recovery complications limited him since and he has not been good at all in the very limited time he has pitched in the last three years.  The Blue Jays, watching their division improve around them, need to stack up as many moves as they can to keep up.  This is a good piece to the puzzle.

-The Jays didn't stop there, getting the veteran reliever Octavio Dotel in a free agent signing as well.  Besides being one of the most overrated players on the video game series MLB: The Show, Dotel is 36 and didn't have a great 2010 between three teams.  Interestingly though, Dotel still has the strikeout stuff that made his career owning a career 10.9 K/9 ratio.  In 2010, that ratio was 10.5 K/9, just a tick below.  Remember the Jays lost elite setup man Scott Downs in free agency, but could have a short term replacement right here.

-The Reds signed a trainwreck of an outfielder who will never live up to his potential Jeremy Hermida to a minor league deal, suggesting he will just be a backup plan on the 2011 Reds.  Hermida had high expectations coming up with the Marlins about four years ago, but has never really taken the next step.  He is stuck at Tyler Colvin stat levels, but with more strikeouts and without the rookie benefit-of-the-doubt factor.