Writer's Take: This is probably the fourth consecutive Spring Training in which this has been the main question with Zambrano. In past years, it's been the exact same situation every year. In 2007, 2008, and 2009, Zambrano would go on hot streaks where he could be as dominating as any pitcher in the league with his mix of a great fastball and decent offspeed pitches (July 2007: 5-1, 1.38 ERA in 39 innings). But he would also suffer months in which he struggled every start (August 2007: 0-4, 7.02 ERA in 29.1 innings), leading to him getting angry and taking it out on umpires, teammates, and/or assorted dugout equipment (just ask the poor Gatorade dispensers at Dodger Stadium and Wrigley Field). His inconsistency and temper flares have frustrated Cubs management again and again.
In 2010, something was finally done about it. Zambrano had already been relegated to the bullpen due to ineffectiveness out of the rotation after just four starts when the Cubs took action. After his annual blow up of the year, a one-sided shouting match in late June with Derrek Lee in dugout of US Cellular Field after Lee didn't dive for a base hit that ended up contributing to a three-run homer, Zambrano was placed on the restricted list. He wouldn't pitch again until over a month later in Colorado. But he made it back in to the rotation on August 9th, and turned many heads with his play. He went 8-0 in 11 starts after he returned with a 1.41 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 70.1 innings. He did walk 40, but his control was much better than it had been in quite some time.
Scouts picked up on his control improvements, and labeled it in a way that hadn't been thought possible with Zambrano. For probably the first time since 2006, Zambrano was actually locating pitches and putting his gameplan around that. From 2007 to the first half of 2010, he had been living on his power fastball and dropping in offspeed pitches, doing just enough to fool batters. He was the kind of pitcher who made the catcher's glove move considerably on every pitch, but it was okay because he had enough pure stuff to make up for it. At 29 years old in 2010, his fastball stopped hitting 94 and 95 mph and would top out around 91 or 92 most days. So he improvised. He transformed from "a thrower into a pitcher" in one scout's words. He's less of a strikeout pitcher than he once was, but getting ground balls leaves less risk for hits than high challenging fastballs. So while Carlos Zambrano has been more of a perennial question mark than any player not named Mark Prior, Zambrano's mix of newfound anger management expertise and newfound control-focused pitching skills should make him a strong #2 starter for the Cubs.
Ideal Production: 13-15 wins, sub-4.00 ERA, sub-4 BB/9 and 7 K/9.
Expert Opinion: Bruce Levine of espnchicago.com wrote an article on Zambrano's tutoring of fellow Venezuelan Carlos Silva. Zambrano's tutoring is probably gaining him respect in the Cubs clubhouse. Plus, he's probably learning a bit himself from his teammate.
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