Friday, January 27, 2012

2012 Cubs Rotation: The Odds Game

Keep an eye on make-or-break rotation candidate Randy Wells.
As we head into February of this new year, the Cubs, like most teams, still have much to be decided in their starting rotation.  Thanks to the front office's dealings, there are a host of candidates for a rotation spot.  But which candidates are locks, which are maybes and which are long shots?  Staring at a list of candidates doesn't provide the reader with much information besides their own personal speculation.  I don't have any extra info to release or anything, but I do have a method to make the speculation more fun.  Here I place odds on each starter and his chances (in my opinion) of making the rotation.  The total adds up to 500%, each 100% representing one starter.

Matt Garza: 99% (LOCK)
Barring any trade or a steroid bust or whatever ridiculous idea you can come up with, Garza will be in the rotation from the beginning.  He should start Opening Day, but I have a feeling Dale Sveum will give the ball to his trusty veteran Ryan Dempster.  Still, though, Garza is the ace of the team.

Ryan Dempster: 99% (LOCK)
The Cubs picked up his $14 million option for 2012 even when, according to the new CBA, I don't think they would've lost a draft pick if he had left.  Dempster begins his fifth season in the rotation as a major bounceback candidate after losing his slider last year.  He's a good guy to have around, so he'll be worth it in probably his last year in Cubs blue.

Paul Maholm: 99% (LOCK)
Maholm has started every game of his big league career and won't stop now.  He'll be a solid rotation member, and his groundball strategy makes him a good fit for Wrigley.  No suspense here.

Travis Wood: 70%
Wood has proven himself to some extent in the big leagues with much room to improve.  He'll be the youngest member of this revamped rotation unless Trey McNutt makes some miraculous surge to the rotation.


Chris Volstad: 40%
I'll say the newcomer Volstad gets a fair chance in his first year with the Cubs.  He may not last the whole season considering his skill level, but a decent asset to have.  If not for Chicago, I think he'll be starting games in Iowa.

Randy Wells: 40%
It's been hard to read how the new management will deal with the Wells situation.  Wells is hard-working and a good teammate coming off two mediocre seasons which followed a breakout rookie campaign.  I'm a fan of Wells, but this season could be his last chance in the rotation.

Andy Sonnanstine: 20%
I'm sure Sonnanstine will do just fine with the coaching staff and such, but his signing does nothing to change the fact that he simply isn't a great pitcher at a 5.26 career ERA, and his repertoire doesn't leave much room for improvement at age 29.  He could be a nice flex/spot starter option out of the bullpen, but it'll take an overhaul for him to start all season.

Rodrigo Lopez: 20%
I was against the resigning of Lopez because he doesn't provide the ballclub much of anything besides his on-field display which wasn't very impressive.  I worry that the new regime will take Lopez as a veteran sign of stability.  The right move, however, is to leave him in Iowa.

Casey Coleman: 8%
After a solid trial period in 2010, Coleman got 17 starts last year in an injury-fill in role.  It, umm, didn't go so well.  He finished with a 6.40 ERA, giving up almost 11 hits per nine innings.  Back to Iowa, young one.

Trey McNutt: 5%
The wildest of wild cards!  McNutt is the organization's top pitching prospect despite taking a few steps back last year.  He hasn't even proved himself at Double-A ball yet, but apparently he'll head to big league camp.  Sending him to the majors this early would be a complete train wreck.  Don't even try it.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Three Up, Three Down: Offseason Moves

Joey Votto
With less than five weeks remaining until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, most of the major offseason moves have already been made.  Most teams have made notable changes and some are even done shopping, content with their roster for the 2012 season.  Others have more work to do.  Today we'll look at three extreme examples of both.  Here I indicate whether I'm bullish or bearish on a certain team.

Cincinnati Reds - BULLISH
Faced with possibly losing Joey Votto in less than two years, the Reds are going all in.  They gave up a lot to get him, but they have a new ace in Mat Latos, acquired from the Padres for Edinson Volquez and three minor leaguers.  That blockbuster trade has highlighted their offseason moves so far but they've also made improvements in the bullpen.  Reds GM Walt Jocketty pulled the trigger on acquiring Sean Marshall from the Cubs for three prospects and, giving them an elite setup man right away.  Francisco Cordero may or not return to the team, but their acquisition of Ryan Madson makes it much more unlikely.  Madson's four-year deal with the Phillies fell through in November and Madson and Scott Boras shocked the baseball world by settling for a measly one-year deal with Cincinnati.  It's for $8.5 million so the Reds are putting in a major investment, but his 32 saves, 2.37 ERA and 3.88 K/BB ratio from 2011 provide indicators that he'll be able to continue his success.  In the 2000s when the Reds were non-contenders for most of the decade, it was because of their lack of pitching to keep up with their bandbox of a ballpark.  With a new ace and revamped bullpen, they'll be strong contenders in 2012, especially considering how the Cardinals are losing Albert Pujols and the Brewers are losing Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun (for the first 50 games).

Anaheim Angels - BULLISH
For obvious reasons, the Angels will be a better team in 2012.  Those obvious reasons are the two deals they sneaked into at the Winter Meetings back in December fro Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson.  They grossly overpaid for Pujols and gave him at least four years too many, but they had to if they wanted to sign him at all.  This year, however, Pujols and Wilson are in the primes of their respective careers and they'll be major stars in their first season.  They'll both probably make it to the All-Star Game whether they deserve it or not.  They'll need a strong season from one of their other power hitters, like Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter or Mark Trumbo, if they want to make it deep in the playoffs, however, as otherwise teams will just pitch around Pujols.  If they get the production they need, watch out for this team. 

Big Mike Stanton has put the bleachers on notice, and
will again in the new Marlins Park
Miami Marlins - BULLISH
The Marlins have made the most noise this winter with signings of Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, and Mark Buehrle.  They came very close to signing Pujols but fell just short.  Just like the Angels' situation with Pujols, though, they'll need someone not named Hanley Ramirez to back up Mike Stanton in the power department (Ramirez will likely bat in front of Stanton).  Their fifth starter is Carlos Zambrano.  That tells you a lot about their deep rotation of Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez.  They even managed to drop the weakest link from the group in Chris Volstad who went to Chicago in the Zambrano deal.  Of course we can't forget about new manager Ozzie Guillen.  Not everyone is a fan of his tactics, but they'll get the team motivated and in the headlines, which is two major goals of Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria.  If these fancy new investments tank and the Marlins go back to the mediocre ways, Loria will not be able to pay off the new stadium in expected fan revenue.  That would put the franchise in a financial hole that could set it back for a decade.  For the immediate future, however, I think they'll be players in the NL East.  

San Francisco Giants - BEARISH
I've criticized San Fran again and again for their lack of impact offensive players.  Last winter their only real action to improve the offensive problems they had was to bring back first baseman Aubrey Huff, who was coming off a fluke 2010 season, and 2010 postseason hero Cody Ross, a lifetime mediocre hitter turned major championship contributor.  Ross is now with the Boston Red Sox, and Huff is no longer a dependable power option that can be the team's potency leader.  This winter, so far they've signed backup catcher Eli Whiteside and added Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan through trades.  These three are athletic, useful major league players, and yet none of them can be counted on for any kind of power.  The addition of Buster Posey will definitely help, but he'll need some reliable support.  Newly resigned Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito fill out their still-impressive rotation, but they'll continue to lose too many games on the road if they continually have to go through a tedious array of walks and singles for each offensive rally.  Not even Brian Wilson's beard can fix this one.

Sign at X please, first and last...wait, what's your name again?
Cleveland Indians - BEARISH
If all healthy, the Indians will could contend in 2012.  The problem is that an inconsistent rotation with a lack of consistency will plague them, even if the most injury-riddled team of the 21st Century miraculously stays injury-free for one year.  This rotation includes Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland's closest reincarnation of the "Wild Thing" for high strikeout and walk totals, The Pitcher Formerly Known As Fausto Carmona (err, Roberto Heredia), prototypically washed-up veteran Derek Lowe and probably two other guys not well known enough for me to make puns about (Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin).    This part of the team is not a strength.  On offense, the Indians pulled off a major surprise move in resigning center fielder Grady Sizemore, who is three seasons removed from his last good or full one.  Sizemore returns to a club of injury-plagued Tribe members in Shin-Soo Choo and Travis Hafner, two major impact bats at some point.  Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera are among the best in the league at their positions, but the two of them don't come close to matching Detroit's duo of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.  It'll take a full team effort to overcome D-Town. 

Milwaukee Brewers - BEARISH
A superstar duo in Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun finally had great pitching behind them to lead Milwaukee deep into the playoffs.  If Milwaukee were a large market, that would probably signal the start of a dynasty.  Instead the Brew Crew will be without Braun until nearly June when he returns from his 50-game 'roid suspension and without Fielder for, presumably, the rest of his career.  Looking to make a reciprocative splash, GM Doug Melvin signed veteran third baseman Aramis Ramirez to a three-year deal.  Unfortunately, Ramirez is 33, on the down trend in his career, and isn't one of those mentor-type veterans.  Until Braun returns, the team will rely on Ramirez, Corey Hart, newly added but similarly aging shortstop Alex Gonzalez and Tony Plush in center to do most of the offensive work.  This doesn't nearly as fun as last year was for the Brewers.  We'll see if a horrific postseason affects #2 starter Shaun Marcum, and their bullpen uncertainties could go either way.  Overall, though, the question of the season will be whether or not the team can 'survive' the first 50 games without Braun.  I This is a solid team and I hope them the best (when not playing the Cubs), but I don't think they have another run in them.         




Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Kid K Returns

Hopefully Kerry Wood will be a Cub for life.        



Kerry Wood will return this season for his 12th season as a Chicago Cub.  With the Cubs he has 80 wins, 35 saves and a 10.4 K/9 ratio, among the best in the majors over that time.  This 35-year-old hardthrower has long been a favorite of Cubs fans and has been guaranteed a job for life within some role in the Cubs organization.  A team figure such as Wood could be the manager someday.  For now, however, he's still a setup man. 

Wood provides immediate closer insurance.  With Sean Marshall traded, Wood will be the primary setup man in 2012 until further notice.  He'll make $3 million on this one-year deal.  Even though he had said he would rather retire than play for anyone besides the Cubs, he showed interest in the Phillies' offer of $4 million over one year.  Wood actually agreed to a deal with a team, which may or may not have been the Phillies, and was pending a physical to make the deal official when the Cubs swooped in with a better offer.  He voided his deal and signed with the Cubs.

The $3 million marks a significant pay raise for a reliever.  Wood accepted $1.5 million over one year last winter from the Cubs despite receiving a two-year, $10 million offer from the White Sox and a similarly better offer from the Red Sox.  This winter, however, Wood was less willing to take a hometown discount.  The size of player salaries today makes me cringe at times, but Wood was absolutely right to want more money in this situation. 

The Cubs needed to pay up because this guy represents way, way more than a veteran setup man trying to finish his career full circle.  If the Cubs have serious hope of keeping him in the organization, they need him to finish his career as a player.  Andre Dawson and Mark Grace are prime examples of Cubs greats who escaped at their end of their careers and began post-playing careers in Florida and Arizona, respectively.  Wood wants to stay in Chicago and the fans want him.  I'm glad the front office made the right call here. 

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Wrigley's First Non-Rooftop Rooftop

New (2012-): RF Patio w/Scoreboard
Last weekend at the Cubs Convention the Cubs unveiled plans for a new patio section in the right field bleachers.  These are the first major changes to the outfield configuration since 2006, when the bleachers were dramatically expanded all the way around.  This renovation, however, probably reduces the total capacity of the area.  That's not to say it will make less money, however.  No way.  A ticket to the new patio will now come with an all-inclusive food and beverage package, a trademark principle taken from the rooftops across the street.  Oh yeah, and you'll probably have to buy 50 tickets to even get in.  But this new seating-and-standing-room-only section is unique to Wrigley and will be pretty cool to check out, if I get a chance.

The details have yet to be worked out, said Cubs resident non-baseball businessman Crane Kenney.  The section can hold a maximum of 150 total people.  The debate is whether to sell tickets individually, in three groups of 50, or one group of 150.  Kenney also described how the new section will intentionally bring a very rooftop-like environment into the actual ballpark for the first time.  It wasn't, however, modeled after the Fenway Park renovation of 2003 which saw the Red Sox rebuild the top of the Green Monster to include seats for the first time.  It does look similar, but the intentions are different here.  Over the past three years of Cubs mediocrity, the Bleacher Boxes have been increasingly empty, especially compared to the rest of the bleachers.  Why?  The Bleacher Boxes, while not only losing some of the awesome bleacher environment by having actual seats, have an obstructed view of much of the field.  The center fielder can't been seen from most of the seats.  The new patio raises the entire section, fixing this issue.

Old (2006-2011): Bleacher Box Seats
Doing an eyeball test of the old bleacher box seats got me a capacity number of around 200, so the loss in seating is minimal.  But the new section also comes with some new flashy toys that fans all around the ballpark can enjoy.  The new 75-foot LED screen will be the biggest electronic screen at Wrigley Field upon implementation.  It is very wide but not very tall so instant replay will be a challenge.  This board, rather, will be used mostly for additional scoreboard information, like player photos, pitch speed and count, and batting order.  None of those can be found on the old-school scoreboard in center field.  Fans have been clamoring for these statistics for quite some time, and they will be very pleased with this.  This is quite a pleasant surprise to me, a pro-Jumbotron advocate who didn't think it would be this easy to add an electronic scoreboard yet conceal it within the ballpark's style so well.

Old Old (?-2005): Very few rows of standard bleachers
In the artist's rendering of the patio above, the home run baskets stay in the same position even though fans will no longer have access to home run balls hit there.  This is something for Cubs fans to keep an eye on.  Both of our new power-hitting corner infielders are lefties, so moving the baskets up above scoreboard level or eliminating them completely will probably change the outcome of at least a few line-drives.  I hope the baskets stay at current position because I don't think this renovation should affect the field of play.  Besides, having a hitters' park is more fun.

This is a big step in the overall modernization of Wrigley Field.  Tom Ricketts can brag about renovating more women's bathrooms all day long but, unlike the bathrooms, this renovation serves more than 20% of the fans at the game.  So far fan reaction has been mostly positive but some are cautious, worried that this means more drastic, nontraditional changes are on the way this year.  I don't think that's necessarily true, but there will be minor changes continually throughout the season.  The design team for this project did a truly fantastic job of, like I said before, sneaking in this modern technology while still keeping it within the character of the ballpark all while redesigning one of the least popular seating areas of the stadium into the best within-Wrigley party zone within view of the field.        

Why Reed Johnson Should Have Gone Out On Top

I'm probably not on the same page as most other Cubs fans on this issue, but I think there's something to be said against the resigning of Reed Johnson, which took place a couple weeks ago.  So far I've been complementing the Cubs on pretty much all of their offseason moves, including the signings of Manny Corpas and Andy Sonnanstine and the trades of Sean Marshall and Tyler Colvin.  I did have reservations on the David DeJesus deal, but there are some things I like there, like his versatility and consistent approach.  The Johnson deal, however, simply doesn't make sense to me.  I'll explain why.

Johnson will be 35 in 2012, entering his fourth out of five seasons with the Cubs (he played with the Dodgers in 2010).  An unquestioned fan favorite who has a knack for clutch offensive skills and all-out, aggressive defense, he is a fundamentally strong baseball player.  Of the five tools, only his contact hitting and defense stand out.

I was formally introduced to Johnson in June 2005 as he hit a three-run homer at Wrigley Field with the Toronto Blue Jays.  He made a much bigger name for himself, however, once he came to a market that would truly appreciate his talent in the North Side of Chicago.

I have always been a Reed fan myself; it's hard not to be when he's the only one who operates at 110% of his ability on defense.  However, the Cubs just recently had a logjam in the outfield in 2010 as Kosuke Fukudome and Tyler Colvin battled for at-bats in right field.  Seems like the Cubs are asking for another one.  Sure, Johnson doesn't need many at-bats or hardly any starts, but he also shouldn't warm the bench for a week straight.

Personally I'd rather see Tony Campana, who was projected as the fourth outfielder, to fill the role that Johnson will in 2012.  Campana, although raw and unknown in potential, is young and has something to prove, unlike Johnson.  Campana's speed factor, which produced 24 steals in very limited playing time last year, is very valuable to a roster that seriously lacks it.  While Johnson plays hard on defense to the naked eye, his defense stats tell that he doesn't field it like he used to.  Johnson's range factor and fielding percentage were both below league average, not to mention a -.1 defensive wins above replacement compared to Campana's .9, even though Johnson got more playing time.

I don't need any statistics, however, to tell you that Theo and Jed are exercising a youth movement.  New Cubs regulars will include Ian Stewart, Travis Wood, and Bryan LaHair/Anthony Rizzo, all of whom are younger than those that they replaced in Aramis Ramirez, Rodrigo Lopez, and Carlos Pena, respectively.  Even though Johnson is a role player, his role is a misfit to me.      


Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Cubs Sign Paul Maholm

Paul Maholm, the Cubs' newest starting pitcher
The last four weeks or so must be the most eventful offseason month for the Cubs in a long time.  Theo and Jed's Rizzo-for-Cashner trade immediately gathered critical acclaim, but they weren't done yet.  They still aren't.

Paul Maholm, 29, is a seven-year major league veteran who has spent all of his seasons in Pittsburgh.  He joined the rotation for good in 2006 and has started in all 185 major league appearances.  He was the 8th overall pick in the 2003 draft, so his success was foreseen by many scouts.  He holds a misleading 53-73 career record with a 4.36 ERA and career K/9 innings and BB/9 innings rates of 5.5 and 3.0, respectively.  He doesn't have the typical skill set of an early first-round starter but has been a very reliable innings eater for the Pirates for the last half-decade.  His performance hasn't really given him the 'ace' moniker, but his surrounding staff has.

Maholm is a groundball pitcher; he will rely on his infield defense a whole lot.   Although he'll soon be on the wrong side of 30 and doesn't have any overpowering pitches, this is a terrific signing for the Cubs.  He gives the Cubs a reliable veteran option to contrast the inconsistent tendencies of rotation-mates Randy Wells and Travis Wood, just to name two.  MLBTradeRumors.com ranked Maholm as the ninth-best starting pitcher available in the free agent market.

For fans still skeptical about the results of all these recent moves, I have some good news.  If you think about it, this move makes a Matt Garza trade much more likely.  Garza is a star at this moment and the Cubs front office is working for a deal.  Ironically as soon as I realized that this makes a Garza trade more likely, Jed Hoyer told the media that it isn't a "precursor" to any other deal, implying a Garza trade.  I don't believe that.  When has a GM ever announced that a move they just made was a precursor to another deal - before the second deal has been agreed on?  Hoyer can't say that a Garza trade will follow because then if the deal falls through, the front office will look bad and expectant fans will be disappointed.  A politically correct move by Hoyer and a statement needed to be made, but I don't believe it to be true.

Cubs fans shouldn't expect the world from Maholm.  He'll finish with a record near .500 and an ERA anywhere between 3.50 and 5.00 most likely.  He'll earn his value, however, in inducing ground balls and being a model big league regular for others to learn from.  Although his year-to-year results are inconsistent, he's coming off the second-best season in his career and is a known commodity in the big leagues, which is more than we can say for any of our mediocre options in Iowa at starting pitcher.  Good move.

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Cubs Acquire Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner

Anthony Rizzo
Man, Theo and Jed really do like this kid.

More than a month after initially talking to the Padres about Anthony Rizzo, the Cubs finally found the right deal to reel him in.  That deal was Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Na for Rizzo and Zack Cates.  A blockbuster deal as far as prospects go, but I like it.

I think this is a really risky move by the Padres.  Cashner was supposed to be the Cubs' #5 starter in 2011 until an injury in his first start caused him to miss nearly the entire season.  Despite the injury risk, San Diego still was aggressive about acquiring the Cubs' first-round pick from 2008.  So far Cashner's career has been defined by his 100 mph fastball and that injury.  His minor league record is impressive with a 2.82 career ERA and only three homers allowed in over 180 innings, but closer study reveals he doesn't have his mechanics down well enough to be considered an elite prospect.  He does strike out about eight batters per nine innings but also walks about four in nine innings.  This means his K/BB ratio is around 2.00, which is not impressive at all.  For comparison, most elite pitchers have around a 4.00 or 5.00 ratio.

Andrew Cashner
Interestingly enough, Cashner became somewhat homer-prone in his midsummer major league trial in 2010.  I said before how he only allowed three homers in 180+ minor league innings.  In just over 50 major league innings, Cashner allowed eight home runs.  His ERA from that trial was 4.80, and that K/BB ratio got even worse to 1.67.  Like most other fans and observers of the game, I assumed these struggles were due to a lack of experience and the typical issues a rookie deals with upon arrival in MLB.  I guess I was never really sold on him, though.  That fastball is amazing and his simple delivery seems to defy physics, but his changeup was not where it needed to be.

Rizzo didn't have much luck in the majors either.  His trial came in 2011 and he batted .141 with just one home run in over 150 plate appearances.  Obviously I don't watch the Padres every day, but from what I can tell it seemed he never got into a rhythm.  That actually helps the Cubs, however, as it dropped his stock to the point where just Cashner could get him.  Rizzo will be worth it, too.  Across three levels of minor league ball, Rizzo has put up back-to-back 25 HR, 100 RBI seasons.  In 2011, however, he did it in much more impressive fashion, as if 100 RBIs in the minors wasn't impressive to begin with.  Rizzo batted .331, got on base at a .404 clip, had a .652 slugging percentage, recorded his first career triple, and did it all in 93 games.  101 RBIs in 93 games?!  Cubs fans, meet Anthony Rizzo.  He's here to stay.

Times a-changing: This Cubs Convention poster, advertising
 the 2011 Convention, is only a year old.  Two of the three
featured players are out of the organization.
Cates, 22, was the Padres' third-round pick in 2010.  This 6'3" righty spent all of 2011 with Fort Wayne in A ball.  His 8.5 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, and 2.09 K/BB are reminiscent of Cashner.  The main difference is Cates is still two or three years from the bigs while the Padres will most definitely throw Cashner into Petco Park for at least part of 2012.  Cates has some nice potential.  Let's give it a year and see where he stands after that.

The outfielder Na was signed out of South Korea and played the 2011 season at age 19, bouncing from rookie ball to even AA.  He gives little offensively with virtually no power at all but has some speed.  His size  (5'10", 170 lbs) is a minus, but apparently his defense is good.  Either that or he paid his way through the Cubs' minor league system.  I can't figure out how he moved up so quickly.  I don't think we lost anything here, though.

Theo Epstein announced after the trade that he expects Rizzo to start 2011 in AAA.  Theo himself must be excited to have Rizzo, a prospect of his own in Boston until he went to San Diego in the Adrian Gonzalez trade.  For now, however, Rizzo is still a prospect.  Personally I'm really excited for this kid to debut, but he needs some time in Iowa first.  We don't want to burn him out before he's ready.  As of right now, Bryan LaHair is our first baseman.  But soon, and hopefully for a long time, Anthony Rizzo will be the man!

Cubs Sign Andy Sonnanstine, Manny Corpas

Manny Corpas
Before the new year the Cubs quietly completed a deal to sign starter-turned-reliever Andy Sonnanstine.  Allow me to provide a little insight on the move.

In the grand scheme of things, he provides little to the Cubs.  A 13th round pick of the Devil Rays in 2004, Sonnanstine had an impressive minor league track record with a high strikeout rate and low walk rate.  His ERAs were consistently in the 2.00s and 3.00s all the way up to his breakout season as an innings-eater for the 2008 Rays.  Lately, however, his career hasn't gone so well.  By 2010 he had lost his rotation spot and struggled out of the bullpen facing increasing walk rates and ballooning ERAs.  In 2011 he spent most of his time with the Durham Bulls in AAA, but even there he couldn't recreate his previous success in the minors.  His modest 15 games with the major league Rays was a forgettable stint for sure.

A fresh start could be just what this owner of a 5.26 ERA needs.  Chris Bosio will be tasked with finding a way for him to improve his flat fastball, which he goes to 64% of the time.  Manny Corpas' story is somewhat similar.  Corpas emerged as Colorado's best in the bullpen in 2007 with a 2.08 ERA in 78 innings and a WHIP of just 1.06.  From 2008-10, however, he started giving up too many hits and couldn't keep runners off base.  A 4.62 ERA in 2010 didn't recognize the potential he showed earlier in his career.  Then he missed all of 2011 to injury, and now he winds up here with the Cubs.

Neither move is a big move, but both add experience to a bullpen that will be lacking it in 2012.  I don't think Sonnanstine will last long with the major league club if he even gets on after Spring Training, but Iowa Cubs fans might get a good look at him.  Corpas is simply the better pitcher in my opinion, and I think he will earn a bullpen spot in middle relief.  The athletic 29-year-old Panamanian will be healthy to begin the season so he should take advantage of this fresh start.  Believe it or not, he will be the second-oldest in the 'pen behind Carlos Marmol who is only a month older.  That is unless Kerry Wood signs.

No matter what both pitchers will need some work to return to form.  An early test for Bosio, perhaps.

The 2011 All-Division Team: The Full Team

Down but not out yet, future Hall of Famer Todd Helton
makes an appearance on the All-Division Team.
Here in condensed form I present the final selections of the 2011 All-Division Team.  This has been an enormous project for me and I hope everyone enjoyed reading it!

Catchers
Matt Wieters, BAL
Brian McCann, ATL (2nd)
Carlos Santana, CLE
Yadier Molina, STL
Mike Napoli, TEX (2nd, first with Rangers)
Miguel Montero, ARI

First Basemen
Adrian Gonzalez, BOS (2nd, first with Red Sox)
Mike Morse, WAS
Miguel Cabrera, DET (2nd)
Prince Fielder, MIL
Mark Trumbo, LAA
Todd Helton, COL

Second Basemen
Robinson Cano, NYY (2nd)
Dan Uggla, ATL (2nd, first with Braves)
Alexi Casilla, MIN
Brandon Phillips, CIN
Ian Kinsler, TEX
Jamey Carroll, LAD

Third Basemen
Evan Longoria, TB
Chipper Jones, ATL
Danny Valencia, MIN
Aramis Ramirez, CHC
Adrian Beltre, TEX (2nd, first with Rangers)
Pablo Sandoval, SF

Shortstops
J.J. Hardy, BAL
Jose Reyes, NYM
Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE
Starlin Castro, CHC (2nd)
Erick Aybar, LAA
Troy Tulowitzki, COL

Left Fielders
Sam Fuld, TB
Logan Morrison, FLA
Alex Gordon, KC
Ryan Braun, MIL
Josh Willingham, OAK
Carlos Gonzalez, COL (2nd)

Center Fielders
Curtis Granderson, NYY
Angel Pagan, NYM (2nd)
Melky Cabrera, KC
Andrew McCutchen, PIT (2nd)
Josh Hamilton, TEX (2nd)
Matt Kemp, LAD

Right Fielders
Jose Bautista, TOR (2nd)
Mike Stanton, FLA
Michael Cuddyer, MIN
Lance Berkman, STL
Nelson Cruz, TEX (2nd)
Justin Upton, ARI

Designated Hitters
David Ortiz, BOS
Victor Martinez, DET
Michael Young, TEX (2nd)

Starting Pitchers
Ricky Romero, TOR
Roy Halladay, PHI
Justin Verlander, DET (2nd)
Matt Garza, CHC
C.J. Wilson, TEX
Clayton Kershaw, LAD

Closers
Mariano Rivera, NYY
Craig Kimbrel, ATL
Jose Valverde, DET
John Axford, MIL
Brandon League, SEA
J.J. Putz, ARI


Players by Team:
7 players - TEX
6 players - None
5 players - None
4 players - ATL, DET
3 players - COL, LAD, ARI, CHC, MIL, MIN, NYY
2 players - LAA, STL, NYM, CLE, KC, BOS, TB, TOR, BAL, FLA
1 player - SEA, OAK, SF, CIN, PIT, WAS, PHI
0 players - SD, CWS, HOU

The Rangers again earn the crown with an astounding seven players on the team, consisting of most of their lineup.  They still have the easiest division to win, but their star power gives them an easy advantage over the other AL West teams.  The Angels will challenge that this upcoming season.

Last season the Mariners, Orioles, and Brewers didn't have any players on the list.  This year it's the Padres, White Sox, and Astros.  Not surprisingly, none of those teams made the playoffs.  Interestingly enough the Phillies, possibly MLB's best in 2011, only got Roy Halladay on the roster.  Things are different for the Phillies now that Ryan Howard isn't hitting 40+ home runs anymore and the core players are all getting older.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Cubs Trade Carlos Zambrano; Acquire Chris Volstad

Carlos Zambrano
Earlier this week GM Jed Hoyer finally rid the Cubs organization of Carlos Zambrano in a one-for-one swap with San Diego.  Theo Epstein said a while ago that Zambrano would be given a fair chance to earn his job back in Spring Training, but now he won't get that chance.  Epstein probably didn't think that Hoyer and himself would be able to trade him.  But they did, and the Cubs will receive 25-year-old right-handed starter Chris Volstad in return.  The Cubs will pay $15 of Zambrano's $18 million due in 2012.

Although this move, while wildly uneconomical, was probably the right move for the Cubs, part of me is saddened that the famous antics of the Big Z will no longer grab headlines in Chicago.  Part of the whole deal seemed fitting for the Cubs.  Zambrano playing in Chicago seemed to bring up a punch line.  Failed expectations, dysfunctional play, 100 years without a championship, and now the 'ace' takes swings at the Gatorade cooler -- every year?  It was that teeth-clenching type of frustration at times, but it was relentless entertainment.  Right when you thought he had cleaned up his act, there he was again abusing that poor, innocent energy drink dispenser or barking at Derrek Lee.

Recently it's been easy to forget that he was once a relied-upon ace.  2011 was actually his first season with an ERA over 4.00.  Back in the day, though, he was one of baseball's up-and-coming star pitchers.  At age 22 he broke onto the scene for good with the 2003 dream team Cubs.  He pitched over 200 innings and would again each year until 2007 and won 13 games, a total he would surpass each year until 2008.  He hasn't done either since, instead finding himself in the doghouse, the bullpen, and the disqualified list (a list I didn't know existed in baseball until he made it on) at various times over the past three seasons.  He simply needs a change of scenery.  Finally he gets one.

Chris Volstad
Instead of getting some random single-A prospects with no chance of making it to the bigs, the Cubs get a legit starter with over 100 major league starts under his belt.  His ERA over the past three seasons, each full seasons as a starter, is 4.88.  Not necessarily impressive; that's actually worse than league average.  However, he is still young and has room to improve.  After three seasons in Florida his development appears to have slowed; a change of scenery could end up being very good for him as well.

Standing tall at an intimidating 6'8", Volstad attempts to pound batters inside but it's much more effective on righties.  Lefty batters have been an issue for Volstad since the beginning.  Righties are also a major problem for him when he gets behind in the count.  When behind in the count, Volstad goes to his fastball 74% of the time.  Batters are hitting .310 off it.    His changeup, off which hitters are hitting only .221, is his best pitch but he only throws one 15% of the time.  His put-away pitch as of right now is a decent curveball but I hope new pitching coach Chris Bosio helps him mix in the changeup more.  That would also make the fastball more effective.

I'm excited to see what Volstad will do.  There's much more room for improvement with him than Zambrano at this point.  It's been a fun decade with the Z, but this was the right opportunity.  In Volstad I'm very pleased with the return.  Don't stop now, Jed and Theo.  

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

The 2011 All-Division Team, Part 6: NL West

A year after Andre Ethier stole the
spotlight in LA, Matt
Kempis back on top.
Part 6 of 6: National League West


It's finally here!  The finale of the best around baseball in 2011.  The Diamondbacks came out of virtually nowhere to take the division away from the Giants this past season, but did they have the individual star power to make a major impact on the All-Division Team?  Let's find out!


C Miguel Montero, ARI
Well, the D-Backs have at least one on the board.  This 27-year-old breakout catcher put together all his skills in 2011 to earn MVP votes and his first All-Star selection.  Montero is now one of the game's best offensive catchers.  Plus, he's really fun to play with in MLB: The Show (an added bonus in my book).  He was not really a notably good defensive catcher early in his career but has improved there as well.  86 RBIs and a .282 average from behind the plate made him a reliable part of the offense down in the desert.
Competition: Eli Whiteside (SF), Nick Hundley (SD), Chris Iannetta (COL), and Rod Barajas (LAD).


1B Todd Helton, COL
A team leader who hit for a high batting average and a ridiculously high OBP.  Do I sound like a broken record?  I should.  Helton played 124 games this season.  His .385 OBP this season was the lowest of any season in which he played 124 or more games excluding his rookie season of 1998.  This player is undoubtedly the best in franchise history and a first ballot Hall of Famer.  Still, however, his role on this team is apparent.  He may not have much flash or power at age 37 anymore, but his defense is still a plus as it always has been.  Helton provides the Rockies with stability the franchise had never had before the Tulowitzki era.  Helton's job is his as long as he wants it and if the Rockies are smart, they'll do everything they can to keep him in black and purple for at least two or three more years.
Competition: James Loney (LAD), Aubrey Huff (SF), Jesus Guzman (SD), and Juan Miranda (ARI).


2B Jamey Carroll, LAD
How many 37-year-olds in the Majors steal 10 bases?  If you say Ichiro or Rickey Henderson, that's cheating.  However, neither Suzuki nor Henderson accomplished that feat without getting caught.  In a random statistical anomaly from the 2011 season, the veteran Carroll went 10-for-10 in steals, nearing his career high.  Perhaps a late bloomer, he has now stolen more bases in the last two years than any other two-year stretch in his career.  In 2011 overall though, Carroll was very durable for the Dodgers, playing in 146 games at second base and shortstop and batting .290.  That's really all manager Don Mattingly could ask for.
Competition: Orlando Hudson (SD), Mark Ellis (COL), Kelly Johnson (ARI), and Freddy Sanchez (SF).

Pablo Sandoval
3B Pablo Sandoval, SF
While Ryan Roberts was the greatest surprise from the division and the best utility man in baseball in my opinion, Sandoval's resurgence kept the Giants out of offensive limbo.  Let's face it; GM Brian Sabean has not done a good job of building an offense for a team that should be a deep postseason contender every year.  If there's one thing he has done right on offense, though, it was keeping Sandoval when he was a highly-touted prospect and attractive to other teams.  Despite the pressure of being the only 'big' bat, Sandoval batted .315 and was the only Giant to hit over 15 home runs and 60 RBIs.  The only one.  Perhaps it's fitting that the Kung Fu Panda has to run the show solo.
Competition: Ryan Roberts (ARI), Ty Wigginton (COL), Juan Uribe (LAD), and Chase Headley (SD).

SS Troy Tulowitzki, COL
A wild Tulo appears!  Still only 26, Tulowitzki is purely one of the best players in the game.  Naming him to the All-Division Team was a no-brainer.  Even though the Rockies are the most successful expansion franchise of the past two decades in terms of fan support, Tulowitzki gives the Rockies a brand and identity. He arrived right when Helton's star power began to fade, and Rockies fans now have another prime superstar to hail to.  Tulo is a true team player who contributes on offense, defense and special teams with impressive power and a great arm.  It actually looks like he prefers making off-balance throws but they're accurate.
Competition: Dee Gordon (LAD), Brandon Crawford (SF), Stephen Drew (ARI), and Jason Bartlett (SD).

LF Carlos Gonzalez, COL (2nd)
Gonzalez's season was much lower profile than his Triple Crown chase of 2010.  Still, though, there's nothing wrong with a solid 26-20 season in less than a full season.  Apparently he has also taken after his Colorado teammates in Helton and Tulowitzki with his .363 OBP.  Gonzalez will be 26 next season so the Rockies have many years left of CarGo after he earned his big extension last winter.  I don't think they're regretting the Matt Holliday trade much anymore.  The only concern I have is that his full force nature could result in more injury.  Best of luck to this star.  
Competition: Tony Gwynn, Jr. (LAD), Gerardo Parra (ARI), Cody Ross (SF), and Ryan Ludwick (SD).

CF Matt Kemp, LAD
After Kemp really struggled with his hitting coach and manager in 2010, questions arose about his motivation and morale.  Could this be another headcase who would never live up to his full potential?  Kemp replied no with an MVP excellent season that fell just short of 40-40 levels.  The dude is real dynamite.  Even with all the drama surrounding the Dodgers and their ownership situation, Kemp was the most valuable player in the MLB and should have won MVP.  Actually, he's the MVP of PED-free players (yeah, I went there Ryan Braun).  Although winning a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and getting an All-Star selection in the same season is rare, a career high walk total and OBP help forecast how Kemp will continue his success.  The hardest thing for pitchers to deal with when facing a power hitter is if the hitter forces them to throw a strike to get them out.  Kemp did it in 2011 and should win more his first MVP soon.
Competition: Dexter Fowler (COL), Chris Young (ARI), Andres Torres (SF), and Cameron Maybin (SD).

Justin Upton
RF Justin Upton, ARI
Want to know a main reason Arizona won the West?  In case you couldn't tell, Upton helped a bit.  Besides having his own bleacher section in right field at Chase Field, appropriately tabbed 'Uptown', he finished 4th in MVP voting because of his monster 30-20 season.  Apparently he also got under the skin of opposing pitchers, as he was plunked 15 times more than he ever had been before.  His bat speed ranks among the best in the majors with that old-school two-handed power swing of his.  It's fun to watch as the younger Upton bro has risen above his elder.  For a young franchise like Arizona, a cornerstone player like this is just what they need to keep the fans coming.
Competition: Seth Smith (COL), Andre Ethier (LAD), Wil Venable (SD), and Nate Schierholtz (SF).

SP Clayton Kershaw, LAD
I have held back on the Kershaw show in recent years, but I think he's finally earned it.  At 21 years old and in his first full season in the big leagues, Kershaw was the best starting pitcher on the 95-win Dodger team of 2009.  That speaks to Chad Billingsley's inconsistency more than it does Kershaw's talent, especially considering that Kershaw was raw and hardly a polished product like he is today.  Awarding him with the National League Cy Young, though, was the right choice as his 2.28 ERA and 248 strikeouts mean he has arrived for good.  The Sandy Koufax comparisons just keep rolling in.
Competition: Jhoulys Chacin (COL), Ian Kennedy (ARI), Tim Lincecum (SF), and Mat Latos (SD).

CP J.J. Putz, ARI
The late-blooming Putz rose to becoming the game's best closer in 2007 with Seattle, but just two years later he found himself with a new team thousands of miles away and without the closer's job.  That team was the New York Mets, from which he went to the White Sox, also in a setup role.  The Diamondbacks finally put Putz back in his rightful place in the 9th inning and it paid off as Putz recorded 45 saves, a 2.17 ERA, over 9 K/9 innings and under 2 BB/9 innings.  His .914 WHIP was also among the best in the league.
Competition: Brian Wilson (SF), Javy Guerra (LAD), Huston Street (COL), and Heath Bell (SD).

Monday, January 2, 2012

Cubs Dump Sean Marshall; Acquire Travis Wood, 2 prospects from Reds


Sean Marshall, traded to Cincinnati, was the Cubs' best reliever

Cincinnati overpays for bullpen depth in the first Cubs rebuilding package

Vacation Note: I just got a look at the Miami Marlins’ new ballpark; pretty sweet.  If you’re in Miami and looking for it, I think it would be more helpful if I told you to look for an alien spaceship though.  The huge retractable roof stadium, named New Marlins (insert corporate sponsor here) Ballpark, is extremely tall and a sleek silver color all the way around with an oval-like curvature.  You can peek inside from behind the outfield (where the walls are open) and see the jumbotron and some of the upper deck seats.  I hope to return to see a game in the near future. 
      
Although it’s old news by now, the trade of Sean Marshall to Cincinnati was probably the most important of the offseason so far.  Its importance should not be overlooked.  Even though it was a trade of a setup man for a back-end, somewhat unproven starter and two prospects unheard of to the everyday fan, it represents the first rebuilding deal the Cubs have completed in, well, a while.  ‘Rebuilding’ has not exactly been the Cubs’ cup of tea over the last decade.  Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, however, are believers. 

In this faith, the Cubs will surely execute more rebuilding deals at some point, if not in the next month or so.  MLBTradeRumors.com is reporting interest from the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, and Marlins in Matt Garza, although Detroit and Miami are the front runners at this point.  It may seem like a trade of Garza, especially following Marshall’s, would be the official raising of the white flag on the 2012 Cubs season.  However, the trade with the Rays that brought Garza to the Cubs must have looked the same way to their fans.  They basically dealt their ace for a handful of minor leaguers but made the playoffs anyway.  I’m not saying the Cubs will make the playoffs by any stretch if they make a Garza trade, but it wouldn’t transform them into a 100-loss team either. 

Travis Wood
The trade of Marshall overall certainly makes the current Cubs a worse team, seeing as the bullpen was the team’s lone major strength on the roster.  Marshall was the center piece as one of the best setup men in the game.  A very pressing need, though, in rotation depth was aided by this trade, as 25-year-old Travis Wood joins the roster.  Wood has played in two major league seasons with decent yet inconsistent success.  

Looking at the Cubs rotation right now, though, this includes Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza pending any possibly trade, Andrew Cashner, and Randy Wells, and you can see the Cubs need this depth.  I’d much prefer Wood over any of Rodrigo Lopez, Ramon Ortiz, or Doug Davis.  Wood wasn’t born with blow-away stuff but is almost a solid rotation candidate, and that’s good enough for me.

Now on to the smaller pieces of the deal.  The Cubs only had to give up Marshall to for the deal, but the Reds gave up Wood, the great-hitting outfielder Dave Sappelt and undersized but agile and speedy shortstop Ronald Torreyes.  Sappelt has limited major league experience; Torreyes has none.  But both players have hit well throughout the minor leagues and Torreyes brings major speed.  Sappelt could see some action on the 2012 Cubs as a sixth outfielder/injury replacement.  Torreyes has no chance of appearing at Wrigley next season; he ought to try Double-A first.  He is recorded at 5’9” but in reality is around 5’8” or 5’7” (very similar to Dustin Pedroia).  I like both players and think they both have a decent shot at being major league regulars.  Neither stars, but solid players.  ESPN’s Keith Law agrees, and I concur with Law that the Cubs have won this trade. 

Dave Sappelt
Marshall provides the Reds with bullpen insurance.  I guess he’s the logical closer or back-up closer (which they will need, considering Francisco Cordero’s recent occasional closing issues and that he's unlikely to resign) although he has never been actually been tested as closer before.  When Carlos Marmol lost the job last summer, Marshall got a few chances in the ‘closer-by-committee’ role but that wasn’t enough of a trial to serve judgment.  He’s a loss because he has been the most consistent reliever on the Cubs since 2009 and only he and Marmol have even been a part of the unit since then.

If only counting for the trade’s effect on 2012, I still like the trade.  When early injuries to Wells and Andrew Cashner last season exposed a blatant lack of depth, Jim Hendry was forced to sign Ortiz, Davis, and Lopez in bad veteran signings who had to be signed just to fill the lineup card on a daily basis.  With this move and move forthcoming, the Cubs won’t have to do that.  Wood is young and here to stay while he develops.  It’s safe to say he will improve over the next few years.  Marshall is at his peak right at this moment and at age 29, it's hard to see him getting better over time.  He's elite at the moment but will only go downhill from here.  So in both the long-term and short-term, this deal really does makes sense for the Cubs.