Cubs Positional Breakdown: Starting Rotation

This area of the Cubs, fortunately, is a big strength. However, it's safe to say the Cubs' rotation underperformed in 2009.

#1: Carlos Zambrano, although he lowered his ERA for the second straight year, finished with a mediocre 9-7 record in 28 starts, signaling his first full season as a starter in which he finished with less than 13 wins. He did show promise right near the end of the season, however, including a two-hit shutout in San Francisco. The difference-maker for the hot and cold Zambrano in 2010 will be his dedication to keeping himself in shape and focus on what he needs to do to compete at the highest level, like frustrated Cub fans have seen flashes of. The dominant Zambrano could win 20 games and a Cy Young, or the other Zambrano can continue to do what he has been doing.

#2: Ryan Dempster also took a step back seeing his win total drop by six to 11. His ERA rose, although he did log his second 200-inning campaign. Dempster is a very good starter still with a live fastball and sneaky slider to go with his changeup, allowing him to get out of high pressure situations. Dempster is a positive clubhouse influence with his practical jokes and Harry Carey impersonations. Expect a bounceback year with more run support (part of the problem in 2009). 15 wins is a reasonable estimate.

#3: There are a few question marks with Ted Lilly's shoulder surgery, but it could form to be a nice audition spot for a few starts to see who deserves the #5 spot for the rest of the season. Lilly shook things up himself though, when today he announced his goal for full recovery is Opening Day. "I don't know what the date is," Lilly said Wednesday. "I'd like to be ready when all the other healthy guys are. That would be good for me. If I can't, I'll be disappointed. I have to understand that sometimes you take one step back to gain a couple forward. The whole idea is to not only come back as soon as possible and be out there contributing but be productive, too." Lilly, if healthy, will give a strong year like he has for all three of his years with the Cubs. His 44-26 record with the Cubs contains the most wins of any Cubs pitcher during that time period.

#4: Randy Wells was the biggest surprise without a doubt. A little-known rookie coming from AAA Iowa in early May to fill in for an injured starter, he became one of the most important cogs in the pitching by summer. It took a while to get a first win because of run support (see: Ryan Dempster), but he wrapped up consistent play all around for a 3.05 ERA. Another double-digit win season can be expected from Wells.

#5: Here is where things get interesting. The Cubs have a bunch of mediocre, #5 type starters, so Spring Training will tell who breaks camp with the job. Newcomer Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, and Jeff Samardzija all eye the spot. Silva would best be used from middle relief before starting, judging from his 5-18 record from two years in Seattle, making just 34 starts. Marshall has earned the spot before and didn't perform great, so many were pleased when he performed very effectively in various bullpen roles (not closer). Gorzelanny turned heads in 2007 going 14-10 with a 3.88 ERA, but has changed much since. He showed flashes of starting well with the Cubs, but still ended up with an ERA over five. Samardzija has started only two career games and was bashed in both, but his relief efforts and training have changed some minds within the Cubs organization. My verdict: Jeff Samardzija wins the job. He has the most upside here. Marshall was most effective in his bullpen role and should stay there, Silva is a mess and should be eased into an easy job to see if he can pitch at all, and Gorzelanny will be the backup (#5A) if Samardzija is overwhelmed again.

Overall Grade: A-
I gave them a minus because of the instability in the #5 spot and also the indentity theft risk of Carlos Zambrano. This would appear to be the year for him, but we just don't know. The run support that these guys had to work with was ridiculous considering the Cubs lineup. There is a 0% chance it will be that bad again. Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, and Wells are all capable of 15 win seasons in 2010. In fact, that is more likely than not. The #5 spot is kind of up in the air, I don't see what we can get from it. Those nights with the bases loaded and two outs might make us miss Rich Harden to just get a fastball high to strike 'em out, but besides that it appears Randy Wells has taken his spot effectively. The rotation will be back in 2010, watch out.

Cubs Positional Breakdown: Overview

For the next few posts, I will be breaking down the Cubs by position and give them a grade based on depth compared to the rest of the majors, or the big league average of talent. The posts will not be individual for every position, but rather each of those will be organized in departments: starting rotation, bullpen, infield (including catcher), outfield, and coaching. After that, I will give the Cubs an overall grade and my prediction for them this season. The posts will be coming in the next week or two most likely, to get you knowledged up as pitchers and catchers report this Wednesday. Finally, spring training is starting. Although I love watching the Bulls and Blackhawks, I've been eagerly watching the countdowns for April 4, the Opening Night of the MLB season which is the Yankees vs. Red Sox on ESPN. I believe Jon Miller is the best commentator in sports, so that should be a game you don't want to miss. The baseball season is almost here!