Friday, April 29, 2011

Don't Be Sori

Alfonso Soriano's play has been very surprising and borderline inspirational this season.  In Arizona earlier tonight, Soriano blasted home runs #8 and #9 to left-center and right-center, respectively.  While Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney have been great offensively just hitting and getting on base, Soriano has been the only one so far in the power department to show up.  Geovany Soto, Carlos Pena, and Aramis Ramirez, who were probably expected to hit around 75 homers this season combined, have so far combined for three.  Soriano, on the other hand, has been great.  Except for the fact that, as usual, he hasn't been good in the clutch.  Soriano is batting .174 with runners in scoring position so far with only one homer in that circumstance.  With the bases empty, Soriano is hitting .316.  But for Soriano, the one thing that will keep his power in respectable numbers is a simple, yet elusive, characteristic.  Swagger.

Swagger is a mood.  Swagger is a way of life, and Soriano relies on it to do well.  When on one of his famous hot streaks that haven't really come around lately until this month, Soriano shows off his swagger by showing off at the plate after a home run.  Whether it's a little hop or its just a quick walk before the slow jog, one can watch on TV as Soriano shows his swag, if he has it.  Because Soriano is a hitter that goes on hot and cold streaks so much, he is susceptible to confidence swings and questionable effort.  Often times sans swagger, like all of last year, he would just give up some at-bats and chase the slider in the dirt low and away that everyone knows is coming.  But now, standing alone in second on the NL home run leaderboard to only Ryan Braun's 10, Soriano is fighting and working every at-bat.  If we can get this Soriano for an entire year, like the Nationals did in 2006, the haters will be forced to lay off him because he could show us finally what he is still capable of.

Friday, April 22, 2011

Series Preview: vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Season Series: 0-0 (first meeting)
2010 Season Series: Dodgers won 4-3

Matchup Analysis: So far the Dodgers 2011 season has resembled much of the Cubs 2011 season.  At 10-10, the Dodgers are in third behind the Rockies and Giants, but haven't been very good offensively or pitching-wise yet.  This will be their first road trip since MLB Commissioner Bud Selig announced that the league would appoint a trustee to observe and direct the Dodgers' day-to-day financial operations.  It's a shame that such a historic franchise with all the success it has had in American history and in popular culture has been strapped financially because of owner Frank McCourt's divorce proceedings.  From what I understand, McCourt is not a popular man in the area because of these divorcing issues that could have been avoided and are a personal problem but are affecting the team and organization's ability to invest in winning.  The Dodgers field a solid team that made the NLCS two years in a row in 2008 and 2009, but the window of opportunity will close unless they can add another big piece to assert themselves as contenders to stay.  Right now their best player is right fielder Matt Kemp, who has been on an absolute tear early on this season.  Batting .411 with eight steals, both of which lead the league, Kemp has two walk-off homers just on the last homestand.  The second of the homers came yesterday afternoon against the Braves.  Dodgers fans can't argue with a nice distraction from the situation their organization is in.  And Kemp has an easy draw in the first game as the Cubs will start Casey Coleman.  Chad Billingsley has the advantage against Coleman, but the Cubs have shown more resilience this season against bigger name pitchers.  On Saturday, it'll be current staff ace Ryan Dempster against former staff co-ace Ted Lilly, who makes his first start against the Cubs since they traded him to the Dodgers.  On Sunday, it'll be Carlos Zambrano against Hiroki Kuroda.  Dempster has looked really bad this year and needs to find control of the slider again.  Zambrano was arguably better in his last start than any other start since his no-hitter in 2008, and now he gets to return home to try and replicate success.

Key Player: Carlos Pena - The longer we keep waiting for him to produce big time as advertised, the longer the Cubs offense will be inconsistent.  The hardest homer of the season to get is the first one; I think he'll get his first this weekend and start contributing more often.

Keys to Win:
-Score early.  The Cubs need to get out to a nice comfortable lead in at least two of the three games to establish their position in the series.  With the Cubs' good mix of righties and lefties in the bullpen, it shouldn't be too hard to contain their big hitters, whether it be the righty Kemp or lefty Andre Ethier.
-Work the count.  In 2008 when the Cubs led the NL in runs, there was an article in Sporting News that I read on why that was.  The article was correct, saying that it was because the Cubs were drawing walks.  The Cubs haven't come close to scoring like they did that year since, and they've been nowhere near as patient.  They aren't on pace to walk that much this year either.

Series Prediction: Cubs win 2-1.  I think the Dodgers will jump on Coleman today, but Dempster will have his first good start of the season following and Zambrano will be decent enough on Sunday.  But with Starlin Castro hitting, the Cubs should put up enough runs to support even mediocre starts on Lilly and Kuroda.

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Treading Water

After the first two and a half weeks of baseball, the Cubs seem to be putting forth about the amount of success as last year's group.  With today's loss to the Rockies, the Cubs fall back under .500 again to 7-8, but now return home for a nice nine-game homestand.  Pitching has not been a great strength of the Cubs, and the rotation especially has underperformed quite a bit.  Carlos Zambrano, Matt Garza, and Ryan Dempster have all not pitched well really at all this season.  The injuries to Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner have hurt as well as James Russell was slammed his first start and Casey Coleman has had mixed results.

The bullpen, not including today's performance by Marcos Mateo, has been very good in general.  Carlos Marmol thankfully hasn't thrown out his shoulder yet (knock on wood), which is a concern I have for him just about every time he throws the baseball.  But the rotation has the Cubs playing more high-scoring games than usual.  The Cubs offense has scored 4.5 runs per game this season, and that should be enough to win with the rotation we have.  But Dempster, Zambrano, and Garza have ERAs of 6.30, 6.11, and 6.27, respectively.  Come on now guys, that's no way to run a railroad.

But the offense cannot go unnoticed.  Although they are averaging 4.5 runs a game which is near league average and only a bit above the 4.2 from last year, the Cubs are fourth in MLB in batting average, and fifth in hits.  We can owe plenty of those hits to a certain Starlin Castro, who as of Sunday night led baseball in hits with 28.  In my wanna-be highly-educated fan opinion, Castro is unbelievable.  Watching him out there is like watching a 12-year-old in park district game.  He just comes to play the game and nothing else, just trying to have fun.  It almost seems like he doesn't even feel the pressures and expectations of playing in the bigs, not to mention with all of the hype around him and the Cubs as a franchise and Chicago as a city.  Today watching the Cubs-Rockies game, I watched him bend over the plate to go get a ball well off the plate and ground it to Todd Helton at first base.  Len Kasper picked up on his anger with himself over becoming overanxious on the broadcast.  And after the inning ended and the camera was on him right before commercial, he swung up his helmet as if he was about to slam it in frustration.  This from a guy with a .418 batting average, four hits just the night before, and Chicago status as a fan favorite.

Although fielding has been an issue with this team so far as well, there's been an improvement over last year's performance and Castro has gotten much better so far, making better plays quicker despite two errors.  Basically, this team is waiting on the starting pitching.  It's not time to sound the alarm on the Garza trade yet, but he should know that that is exactly what will happen unless he starts putting up numbers and soon.  The poor performances from Zambrano and Dempster are surprising, to be honest, despite all the Zambrano haters who may have correctly pegged his successful comeback last season as a fluke.  Dempster's success seemed too easy last season, and it's finally catching up to him.  So far I've seen a whole bunch of - to use a Bob Brenly term here meaning a slider that spins but doesn't move hardly at all - cement mixers in the low 80s left high in the zone, right where hitters can get at them.  Hopefully he'll improve, because we need it.

NOTE: There's been some confusion on the results of the quiz giveaway from a few weeks ago.  I apologize for not making this clearer, but if you did win the free app then they would have replied in an email with the code to get the app free.  If you did not get this email, unfortunately you didn't win.  Thanks to all participants, I have deemed this partnership a success.  There may be future similar opportunities, so stay tuned.

Sunday, April 10, 2011

Kosuke Fukudome: 0% Chance of Returning in 2012

Kosuke Fukudome was supposed to be an offensive star for the Cubs when they signed him to a 4 year, $48 million contract before 2008.  So far, he has come nowhere close.  The only reason Fukudome still gets in the lineup consistently is because of his above average defense and patience at the plate.  But his poor hitting probably makes him worth a couple million instead of the $14 million he makes this season.  Here are the top five reasons why Fukudome has very little to no chance of coming back to the Cubs in 2012:

5. The Age
At 34, Fukudome is no kid anymore.  He had already enjoyed a good career in Japan when he came to the US and he was never expected to be some kind of franchise player for 20 years.  That also means that when the Cubs signed him, they knew their wouldn't be much upside to Fukudome over the years.  Unlike a young player like Starlin Castro, he's not going to get better each year.  Because he was a veteran at signing time, it was actually expected he would get progressively worse.  To some extent this has been true, but the bottom line is that he definitely isn't going to get any better than he is now.

4. The Fans
After all, this is a business.  And businesses strive to make money.  Especially this business, where money means better facilities and personnel which means winning which means more money.  And right now, Fukudome isn't helping the Cubs get more money.  Sure, the Cubs sold a bunch of those Fukudome headbands and jerseys with writing in Japanese back in 2008 which have all not-so-mysteriously disappeared, but attendance has been down a lot because of the Cubs' lack of passion out of the field.  Fukudome sure has plenty to do with that.

3. The Salary
Fukudome's unsightly salary is no secret in this town.  He's regarded as one of the most overpaid players in the league, earning $14 million a year for a guy whose production deserves barely a few million at best.  If the Cubs were shortsighted enough to hand him that kind of money, well I guess you can't blame him for taking it.  But the Cubs definitely could do a lot with that money once its off their books, which it will be after this season.

2. The Logjam
It's crowded as it is in the Cubs outfield.  There are four players who either perform like starters or are being paid like starters for three spots.  In theory, Alfonso Soriano and Fukudome would be best served platooning against lefties and righties, respectively, but the Cubs aren't going to pay two guys a combined total of over $35 million to swap playing and warming the bench every day.  Tyler Colvin and Marlon Byrd play well enough to start, but Colvin has trouble getting the at-bats he deserves.  The only reason Fukudome is useful at all on offense is because of his patience at the plate which makes him a sorta-useful leadoff man.  The thing about Fukudome leading off, though, is that he doesn't possess base stealing speed, so he just waits there on first for something to happen.  So taking him out of the lineup doesn't really hurt it at all, it's not like he's giving us anything there that Jeff Baker can't leading off.  Heck, I would rather Alfonso Soriano lead off.

1. The Youngsters
I'm not going to remind the audience of the Cubs' recent past of failed outfield prospects.  So I'm not even going to bring up Corey Patterson, Matt Murton or Felix Pie before bringing up our (knock on wood) future stars.  Brett Jackson comes as a Marlon Byrd's eventual replacement probably after this season or the next; a solid Major Leaguer who has decent skills in all five tools.  Matt Szczur (relax, you can pronounce it Caesar) comes a little later, but is a terrific athlete and good baserunner.  Reggie Golden was just drafted in 2010, but projects to be a dynamic five-tool outfielder.  Golden is an exciting player and hit a home run that landed just short of Waveland while playing in a scouting game at Wrigley back in 2009.  Video evidence of said blast is here.  He's only 19 now (meaning he hit that homer at 17!), so he won't be playing at Wrigley until 2013 at the earliest most likely.  With these promising outfielders waiting in the fold, resigning Fukudome wouldn't make much sense.  There's already that logjam in the outfield; why compound the issues by keeping the logjam in effect until it's time for youngsters to come up?

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

2011 MLB Opening Day Lineups

I finished two new quizzes on Sporcle a few days ago.  Do you think you know every team's lineup on Opening Day?  Take the quizzes!  You are given the team and position of each player, and get to see where in the lineup each position player batted.  For the National League, you will have to name the starting pitcher and for the American League you will have to name the designated hitter.  Good luck!

2011 AL Opening Day Lineups quiz
2011 NL Opening Day Lineups quiz

First 'W' of 2011

With the writer in attendance, the Cubs put up their first win of the season against Pittsburgh on Saturday.  It was such an exciting win, I’ve decided to devote an entire post to it.

Let me begin with this.  I believe this Cubs team has the talent to win 85 games and win the division, of course assuming they catch a few breaks.  Most likely, we will finish near .500 and behind Milwaukee and Cincinnati.  But either way, there’s something different about the publicity and attitude around the Cubs this spring.  It seems like there is less pressure on this team since the 2003 team, which had just come off losing 95 games in 2002.  The team has question marks, like any other team, and expectations, like any other team.  But there isn’t that angry sense of urgency and negativity around here.  And the reason for that, I believe, is that the Cubs have nothing to lose.

The roster will be changing quite a bit next offseason, and this is a year in transition for the Cubs.  Originally, it seemed that this would be a year of rebuilding.  But with moves for Carlos Pena, Matt Garza, and Kerry Wood, it changed somewhat to a ‘win now’ formula, leaving fans confused about the current status of the organization.  Some cited Jim Hendry trying to build a veteran core to support the ascending youths rapidly arriving at Wrigley, and others cited Hendry trying to save his job.  But the Cubs should be a team that will create some noise in 2011.

With that as the backdrop, the Cubs season began with a grim 6-3 loss to the Pirates on Opening Day at a packed Wrigley Field.  The new PA announcer debuted, the new faces were seen, and the staff and roster were announced in a Bulls-style rendition.  But a grand slam from the newest Cub killer in Neil Walker and a two-run homer from Andrew McCutchen would be all the Bucs needed to spoil the festivities.

Hoping to begin the season 2-0, the Pirates started Paul Maholm against Carlos Zambrano.  And a good move that was, as Maholm didn’t allow the Cubs to get much started all game.  Zambrano allowed two runs over the first six innings, and then injured himself but he didn’t tell anyone about it because he wanted to continue to pitch.  The next batter he faced, Garrett Jones, promptly homered off him.  Adding another run to the deficit in such a tight game is huge, says conventional wisdom, but in the grand scheme of things at that point I think the bigger concern was that the Cubs weren’t even on the board yet.  It’s hard to score three when you have yet to score one.  Another zero in the bottom of the 7th, another missed opportunity.  But finally came the bottom of the 8th.

What ensued in the bottom of the 8th is hopefully something Cub fans can get used to.  Evan Meek is no rookie on the mound, even if he’s an undeserving former All-Star.  But the Cubs made him look bad anyway in remarkable fashion.  Kosuke Fukudome, of all Cubs, got the party started by getting on base.  Starlin Castro then drove it to the opposite field, scoring Fukudome, and setting himself up to score.  Enter Marlon Byrd, who also hit a ball to the opposite field – a hard-hit ground ball right at first baseman Lyle Overbay.  Overbay, fresh off a long visit to the American League, has never been known for his glove.  That would explain the inexplicable job he did of letting the ball eat him up and roll in right field.  Walker, the second baseman, had no chance to stop a scoring Castro who had sped around from second base already.  A few batters later, Alfonso Soriano came up with a chance to electrify the stadium with just a simple base knock.  After a long, grueling at-bat, Soriano hit another opposite field drive to right center field.  Of course, a moment of suspense followed as fans had to momentarily wonder if the center fielder McCutchen was about to break their hearts with a horizontal diving catch like on all of his highlight reels.  But the ball dropped before he could get there, resulting in a huge roar from the surprising crowd of 41,000 and tying the game at three.  Two batters later, Blake DeWitt stepped up as a pinch hitter and lined a double that gave the Cubs a two run lead.  Where did he hit it?  To the opposite field, of course.  Carlos Marmol came in a half inning later and did his thing, dominantly striking out the side in his first appearance of the season.  And just like that, the Cubs had stolen a win away from the Pirates.

The Pirates were in control of the game for around two and a half hours.  The Cubs took the last half hour and dominated on both ends, winning the game and summoning the cliché, ‘It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish’.  And finish the Cubs did, unlike the Cubs of a year ago.  If there was a single problem that plagued the 2010 Cubs, it was that they couldn’t win tight games.  The Cubs lost more one run games than anybody in MLB.  Losing one run games is terrible for team chemistry and morale because it leaves a frustrating stench of defeat and an air of incompetence.  In this game, the Cubs were trying too hard against Maholm early on which led to their offensive struggles.  The Cubs were very aggressive against Maholm and tried to pull the ball too often.  Once Meek came in the game, however, the team got in a rhythm of taking what they were given and just dropping it into the outfield, regardless of location.  Once they all realized they could build a rally with a barrage of singles and doubles instead of homers, the offense just clicked. 

This is quite impressive work.  These kinds of rallies were the trademark of the 2008 Cubs, but were nowhere to be seen in 2010.  For the Cubs to continue winning, these will be crucial.

2011 Night Games

The following is a list by rank of the number of scheduled night home games for each team during this 2011 season.

1. Florida Marlins – 66
2. Arizona Diamonbacks – 65
3. Baltimore Orioles – 64
4. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – 62
5. Texas Rangers – 61
6. Kansas City Royals – 60
T-7. Atlanta Braves – 59
T-7. Houston Astros – 59
T-7. Los Angeles Dodgers – 59
10. Philadelphia Phillies – 58
11. Pittsburgh Pirates – 57
T-12. San Diego Padres – 55
T-12. Cleveland Indians – 55
T-12. Chicago White Sox – 55
T-12. Boston Red Sox – 55
16. Milwaukee Brewers – 54
T-17. Tampa Bay Rays – 53
T-17. Seattle Mariners – 53
T-19. St. Louis Cardinals – 52
T-19. Colorado Rockies – 52
T-19. Cincinnati Reds – 52
22. New York Mets – 51
23. Washington Nationals – 50
T-24. San Francisco Giants – 49
T-24. Toronto Blue Jays – 49
T-26. New York Yankees – 48
T-26. Minnesota Twins – 48
28. Detroit Tigers – 47
29. Oakland Athletics – 44
30. Chicago Cubs – 28

Yes sir, there are our beloved Cubbies sitting in dead last, far behind the rest of the league.  The Cubs actually have one night game more than last year (progress?) in addition to hosting their first weekend night game in history.  Thanks to neighborhood organizations, the Cubs haven’t been allowed to host weekend night games before, or have many during the week either.  But hopefully the Ricketts will make night games happen.

Meanwhile, the rest of the teams have night games around two thirds of the time.  The Florida Marlins top the list at 66 night games, leaving only 14 day games and one game to be determined.  The only Marlins day games are on Sundays, which is when all teams play in the afternoon except for the one featured on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.  Other teams, like the Cubs, have afternoon games on the last day of a midweek series, also known as the ‘getaway day’.  Having a day game on a getaway day allows the teams to travel to their next destinations during the day instead of late at night.  In the summer, there are many more afternoon games as franchises capitalize on sunny weather and the young’uns off from school.

Day games have a special place in baseball lore and American tradition, but night games are the way to go.  You have to remember why these games are even held in the first place.  Money.  And these days, the money is under the lights and not the sun.  Night games get better TV ratings, especially during the week, and better attendance most of the time.  Day games get great attendance – on Saturday or Sunday.  Besides that, it’s tough to fill a park when everyone’s either at work or school. 

The Cubs were baseball’s worst home team in 2010.  While they were decent on the road, the team finished at 35-46 at Wrigley Field.  They were the only team to finish with less than 40 home wins.  Could this have had something to do with the lack of night games?  Scott Rolen pointed out that the players’ pregame routines have to be shortened and less extensive every time there’s a day game.  Rolen thought the Cubs’ struggles at home were partially because of the number of night games, and he just might be right.

Saturday, April 2, 2011

Darwin Barney: The Right Man for the Job

Cub fans, meet Darwin Barney.  Many of you have already been acquainted last season, but still many of you are still getting to know the former Oregon State University Beaver.  Getting to know the guy will come quite in handy, as he's here to stay.  If Barney is sent back down to the Minors even once this season, it will come as a surprise to me.  He played so well in Spring Training that he pole vaulted right over the two above him in the depth chart in Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker.  Becoming the first rookie to start on Opening Day since Kosuke Fukudome in 2008, Barney has already entered the Cubs' record books.

Not only does Barney bring energy; he's a hardball, max-effort type player.  These kind of guys are very fun to watch and also conducive to winning, which is obviously a plus.  The max-effort skills of players like Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki have contributed to their widespread popularity probably more than anything else.  This status means that the player will hustle on every single play, work as hard as possible on fundamentals, and play the game 'the right way'.  Barney didn't show up in the Majors just to wave to the TV cameras and bask in popularity; he's here to win.  And he's going to prove that this season.

Barney is also Mike Quade's type of player.  Right away from the Carlos Silva incident, Quade took a no-nonsense attitude.  Barney's just here to play.  The fact that Quade even allowed a rookie to hop over a six year Major League veteran in Baker and a 'valuable' trade return in DeWitt shows that Quade is going to play whoever is going to get the Cubs the win on a certain day.  And as of Opening Day, that man is Darwin Barney.  Although Baker and DeWitt will be getting starts at second base as well, Barney could have the position locked up in just a month or so.