2011 Profiles: Carlos Pena

The Profile posts, which begin with this one on Carlos Pena, will continue for the rest of March as the Cubs' 2011 season approaches.  Each one focuses on an individual player with a key question pertaining to the player at the beginning, right below this paragraph in this case.

Can Carlos Pena prove that his glove and power will outweigh the unsightly number of strikeouts and the low batting average he produces?

Writer's Take: Simply, I think he will.  Pena has never homered at Wrigley Field, but he and those bleachers should become acquainted in no time.  I think it says a lot about somebody, either him or the Rays or both, that he was able to hit .196 on the season and still hit 28 homers and 84 RBIs.  If it says anything about him, it should be that he is basically an all-or-nothing type hitter who isn't going to go on any extended hitting streaks.  His walk total (373 since 2007) is nice, but his strikeout total (628) and batting average (.238) are not.  If it says anything about the Rays, it's that they felt significantly safer with Pena than Dan Johnson, the next in line for the job last season.  Pena's fielding is one of the top reasons why the Cubs even acquired him in the first place, and his skills will definitely be an improvement over those of Xavier Nady or Tyler Colvin.  Derrek Lee's strong fielding at first base probably made the Cubs front office realize that great fielding at that position is an asset valuable to the team, especially considering how Starlin Castro struggled fielding last year.  Pena provides stability defensively as a guy who has been at first base for a long time and not someone converted to the position like Nady or Colvin.  The acquisition of Pena meant the Cubs no longer needed Nady, and he signed with Arizona.

Right field at Tropicana Field is friendlier to lefties than Wrigley Field's right field is, but those howling winds which are obviously not a factor in the dome should make things interesting.  Pena also was not a good hitter within his own division; you can't blame him considering the talent the Red Sox, Yankees, and even Blue Jays have rolled out in recent years.  A move to the friendlier NL Central will do him some good.  Pena has to be a consistent power hitter for this experiment to work; a slump-buster who can wake the offense out of its tri-weekly mid-game nap.  Pena has something that the Cubs front office was surely looking for in patience and plate discipline for a team that lacked it on the 2010 version.  Basically, strikeout or no strikeout, Pena is a guy who goes up to the plate with a plan and makes adjustments to it on the fly.  Starlin Castro, whose lack of plate discipline was notable in his rookie season, could use some of that adjustments stuff.  In a lineup where three of the starters are unproved and raw offensively in Castro, Colvin, and Blake DeWitt, Pena's arrival should show results through other players, too.

Ideal Production (what the Cubs need from him to win): .250+ batting average, 30+ homers, 80+ RBIs, 90+ walks, .375+ on-base percentage.

Expert Opinion: While I may think Pena will be effective in what will probably be his one and only year on the North Side, ESPN.com's A.J. Mass doesn't agree.  Pena could be a bust like Mass suggests, or Pena could be one of the best bargains of the offseason.