American League
TEX vs. TB: TEX in 4
The Rangers enter the postseason as the underdogs against a Rays team that has great starting pitching and smallball talent. I think the difference maker in this series will be the crowd in Texas, who have not seen a postseason game since 1999, have seen only four postseason games in three postseason series (all losses) since the franchise moved to Texas 39 years ago, and have never seen a playoff win at home. The Rangers lost to the Yankees all three times but this time draw the Rays. The Rays will win Game One behind David Price, a low-scoring battle opposite Cliff Lee, but then the Rangers will take advantage of their dynamite offense and win three straight to take the series. Evan Longoria has had a down year in the power department and Carlos Pena has hit the homers but finished the regular season batting under .200, so their offense isn't a sure thing. The Rays had a perfect game tossed against them for the second straight year. Matt Garza is inconsistent as a #2 starter and gives up a lot of homers, something the Rangers hit a lot of.
MIN vs. NYY: NYY in 4
It's been a wild run for these Twins, but it will stop here. The Twins have lost Justin Morneau for the playoffs and even though they have won without Morneau the entire second half of the season, the Twins don't have enough in a short series to beat a team as deep as the Yankees. The Yankees overpower the Twins on offense and beat them easily on the pitching side, as the Twins don't really have a go-to ace. Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano are a good combo of #2 or #3 starters, but neither are aces of this staff. Brian Duensing could be someone to watch in this series as he has pitched great all year. Matt Capps has done a nice job in Minnesota, so the closer spot is no longer a weakness. The Yankees, on the other hand, have the best infield in baseball offensively, and have a 21-game winner in the rotation in C.C. Sabathia, followed by surprising Phil Hughes. The bullpen isn't perfect, but they do have this guy named Mariano Rivera in the bullpen, and he's not that bad for those that don't know.
National League
CIN vs. PHI: CIN in 4
In my biggest upset pick of the playoffs, the Reds will move on to the NLCS sending the Phillies home. Critics of this pick will first mention the 'Big Three' as in the starting trio of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels. Halladay alone is why the Phillies will win Game 1 easy, but the Reds will give Oswalt and Hamels some trouble. Statistically, the Reds are a better offense team than the Phillies in almost all categories. Also, the Reds should be very tough to beat in Cincinnati, where the fans haven't seen playoff baseball in 15 years and will be filling Great American Ballpark for postseason baseball for the first time. A capacity crowd could have as big an effect on the opposition as Citizens Bank Park, which has sold out every single home game in 2010. The Reds only weakness may be starting pitching, but all their starters are capable of giving at least a mediocre start and eating up six innings.
ATL vs. SF: SF in 3
Bobby Cox won't be too happy if his Braves get swept out of the playoffs to end his career. I think it will happen, though, with the way the Giants have played lately. AT&T Park hasn't seen playoffs since 2003 and it was a big, loud home crowd in the 2002 World Series, just like they were on the last game of the season to win the NL West. The Giants start Tim Lincecum against Derek Lowe, Matt Cain against Tommy Hanson, and Jonathan Sanchez against Tim Hudson. While all are intriguing matchups, they are also mostly even considering Derek Lowe's hot streak in September (5-0) and Jonathan Sanchez's last start against the Padres. The fact is, the Braves are roughed up right now. The Braves lost Chipper Jones and Martin Prado for the rest of the season, and those two guys take a big hit to the depth. Derrek Lee will be my difference maker in this series as if he can add his power bat with a high average as he did with the Cubs in 2007 and 2008 in the playoffs then the Braves might do alright offensively. The Giants don't have a great offense either but they have more momentum heading in. San Fran has four big potential 20 HR bats in Aubrey Huff, Buster Posey, Pat Burrell, and Juan Uribe. Pitching should not be a concern for the Giants who have a tremendous bullpen topped out by Brian Wilson at closer.
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