Thursday, February 23, 2012

2012 Cubs Preview: Catchers


Starting catcher Geovany Soto
 This is first of the six-post comprehensive season preview on the 2012 Chicago Cubs!  Each of the next six days will feature the next segment.  First we'll take a look at the Cubs' situation behind the plate.

Inconsistent Soto will again try to live up to potential; this time, he'll have a better supporting cast

The incumbent at the catcher position is 2008 NL Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto.  Since winning that award, however, Soto's career has not gone as envisioned.  The best season of his career was that rookie season and he hasn't come all that close since.  2012 will be Soto's fifth season in the major leagues and he's still looking for his second 55-RBI season, even though he was projected as a major run producer and drove in 86 in his rookie year.  Given, he only 207 games between 2009 and 2010, but there's another problem in itself.  

"I tell you, if he continues to swing the bat the way he has since his recall, this guy's going to have a great career both behind the plate and at the plate." -Cubs TV commentator Bob Brenly after Soto's first career homer in Pittsburgh, September 9, 2007.

Defensively, Soto is no standout behind the plate.  Last season he threw out a career high of 30% of attempted basestealers, raising his career average to 27%.  For comparison, he's still well behind his Cardinal counterpart in Yadier Molina, who, at a career 44%, is regarded as perhaps the best defensive catcher in the game.  Soto's South Side counterpart, A.J. Pierzynski, has never been well known for defense and has a career mark of 24% but was at his worst in 2011.  

Soto has a good arm, but his mobility is sometimes affected by his size.  Soto did lose about 20 pounds last offseason and looked better than Cubs fans had seen him about a year ago, but he regained the weight as the season went on, further hampering his ability to make quick moves.  Remember, Geo, physics constitutes that mass and acceleration are inversely proportional.  In simple terms, less mass = quicker acceleration.

Offensively, Soto has been all over the board.  First he tore up the Pacific Coast League with the AAA Iowa Cubs in 2007, hitting .353 with 109 RBIs to become the PCL MVP.  His performance was noticed by the big league brass, and Soto even started two of the three playoff games that year despite being a September call-up (Matt Moore, anyone?).  Then Soto helped power the Cubs to 97 wins on the NL's best team by calling the pitches for one of baseball's deepest pitching staffs.  He had it all; 23 homers, a .364 OBP, 86 RBIs, an All-Star appearance, and even two triples.  

It went quickly downhill from there.  In 2009 he played for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic, approximately at which time he failed a drug test for marijuana; the results came out later in the season, but this must have hung over him the entire season.  When he wasn't injured, he was bad.  When I say bad, I mean he was being outhit by Koyie Hill.  Okay well not that bad.  Still, though, his average dropped 67 points to .218 and his slugging percentage was a measly .321.  

Then, a turn for the better.  Soto hit the DL again in 2010 but was far more effective as his walk rate was a career high and his .393 OBP is still a number unheard of for catchers.  He was definitely limited because of his injuries, but in a full season he would have been one of the best in the NL. 

Backup catcher Welington Castillo
Of course, he regressed again in 2011.  The power was there; everything else wasn't.  Geo struck out more and walked less than ever, resulting in a career low .310 OBP.  Even that power took a long time to get 'in swing' (pun not intended), as perhaps he wasn't used to his slimmer self.  As I explained, he gained the weight back, and the power returned.  Could there be a correlation there?  Quite possibly.  

Luckily for Cubs fans, catcher should be a stronger position than usual this season even if Soto isn't on his game again.  Taking over the reigns as backup catcher is 25-year-old Welington Castillo.  Castillo got his first splash of major league action in 2010, playing in seven games and hitting his first career homer at Sun Life Stadium in South Florida.  Castillo got more attention, however, for his shattered bat that struck Tyler Colvin on the basepaths in that same series.  

Castillo barely got any playing time last season, but he will get plenty this season.  He's a stronger defensive catcher than Soto and a more fit figure overall.  He can also swing it, which is a nice change for Cubs fans.  Hill was good defensively, but it's hard to become a fan favorite when you can't hit water if you fell out of boat.  Castillo batted .287 with 16 homers and a .516 slugging percentage in only 75 games last season.  It's good to stay younger here so Castillo can learn and improve, instead of watching the 33-year-old Hill decline.

Third-string catcher Steve Clevenger
The wild card in this race is 26-year-old Steve Clevenger.  He got his first career hit, a double, at the end of last season in San Diego.  He's decent defensively although not as active as Castillo and he really struggled back there last season, throwing out only 11% of basestealers and committing eight errors in 96 games.  Offensively, though, he's a nice surprise.  He doesn't bring the power of Soto or Castillo, but he gets on base and is very, very patient for a catcher.  He walks almost as much as he strikes out; the John Jaso model, if you will.  In 448 plate appearances last season, he batted .319 with an incredible .383 OBP.  Clevenger will probably get some playing time later in the season but, barring injuries, I'd be shocked if he makes the club out of Spring Training

28-year-old Chris Robinson, the backup catcher in Iowa last season, could get some playing time in Chicago in the event of an emergency.  He's average defensively and has virtually no power, but he hits for a nice average.  A former third-round pick of Tigers in the 2005 draft, Robinson has yet to debut in the major leagues.

I've dished on and on about this position for long enough.  Let's bury the hatchet.  I have high hopes for Soto given his history in even-numbered years, and I've been calling for Castillo for over a year and a half now.  Even if Soto still can't find rookie form, Castillo will take up the slack and play well, especially defensively.  This position is definitely a strength on the 2012 Cubs.             

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