Cubs Acquire Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner

Anthony Rizzo

Man, Theo and Jed really do like this kid.

More than a month after initially talking to the Padres about Anthony Rizzo, the Cubs finally found the right deal to reel him in.  That deal was Andrew Cashner and Kyung-Min Na for Rizzo and Zack Cates.  A blockbuster deal as far as prospects go, but I like it.

I think this is a really risky move by the Padres.  Cashner was supposed to be the Cubs' #5 starter in 2011 until an injury in his first start caused him to miss nearly the entire season.  Despite the injury risk, San Diego still was aggressive about acquiring the Cubs' first-round pick from 2008.  So far Cashner's career has been defined by his 100 mph fastball and that injury.  His minor league record is impressive with a 2.82 career ERA and only three homers allowed in over 180 innings, but closer study reveals he doesn't have his mechanics down well enough to be considered an elite prospect.  He does strike out about eight batters per nine innings but also walks about four in nine innings.  This means his K/BB ratio is around 2.00, which is not impressive at all.  For comparison, most elite pitchers have around a 4.00 or 5.00 ratio.

Andrew Cashner

Interestingly enough, Cashner became somewhat homer-prone in his midsummer major league trial in 2010.  I said before how he only allowed three homers in 180+ minor league innings.  In just over 50 major league innings, Cashner allowed eight home runs.  His ERA from that trial was 4.80, and that K/BB ratio got even worse to 1.67.  Like most other fans and observers of the game, I assumed these struggles were due to a lack of experience and the typical issues a rookie deals with upon arrival in MLB.  I guess I was never really sold on him, though.  That fastball is amazing and his simple delivery seems to defy physics, but his changeup was not where it needed to be.

Rizzo didn't have much luck in the majors either.  His trial came in 2011 and he batted .141 with just one home run in over 150 plate appearances.  Obviously I don't watch the Padres every day, but from what I can tell it seemed he never got into a rhythm.  That actually helps the Cubs, however, as it dropped his stock to the point where just Cashner could get him.  Rizzo will be worth it, too.  Across three levels of minor league ball, Rizzo has put up back-to-back 25 HR, 100 RBI seasons.  In 2011, however, he did it in much more impressive fashion, as if 100 RBIs in the minors wasn't impressive to begin with.  Rizzo batted .331, got on base at a .404 clip, had a .652 slugging percentage, recorded his first career triple, and did it all in 93 games.  101 RBIs in 93 games?!  Cubs fans, meet Anthony Rizzo.  He's here to stay.

Times a-changing: This Cubs Convention poster, advertising
 the 2011 Convention, is only a year old.  Two of the three
featured players are out of the organization.

Cates, 22, was the Padres' third-round pick in 2010.  This 6'3" righty spent all of 2011 with Fort Wayne in A ball.  His 8.5 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, and 2.09 K/BB are reminiscent of Cashner.  The main difference is Cates is still two or three years from the bigs while the Padres will most definitely throw Cashner into Petco Park for at least part of 2012.  Cates has some nice potential.  Let's give it a year and see where he stands after that.

The outfielder Na was signed out of South Korea and played the 2011 season at age 19, bouncing from rookie ball to even AA.  He gives little offensively with virtually no power at all but has some speed.  His size  (5'10", 170 lbs) is a minus, but apparently his defense is good.  Either that or he paid his way through the Cubs' minor league system.  I can't figure out how he moved up so quickly.  I don't think we lost anything here, though.

Theo Epstein announced after the trade that he expects Rizzo to start 2011 in AAA.  Theo himself must be excited to have Rizzo, a prospect of his own in Boston until he went to San Diego in the Adrian Gonzalez trade.  For now, however, Rizzo is still a prospect.  Personally I'm really excited for this kid to debut, but he needs some time in Iowa first.  We don't want to burn him out before he's ready.  As of right now, Bryan LaHair is our first baseman.  But soon, and hopefully for a long time, Anthony Rizzo will be the man!