Cubs Acquire Matt Garza

Although the big trade for Matt Garza is not yet official and the details have yet to be released, the deal already looks like quite the impressive one for Cubs GM Jim Hendry.  The Cubs are sending catcher Robinson Chirinos, starting pitcher Chris Archer, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee (photo, left), outfielder Brandon Guyer, and outfielder Sam Fuld for Matt Garza, outfielder Fernando Perez, and an unknown Minor League pitcher whose name should be released soon.  In David Kaplan's article on Comcast SportsNet Chicago's website, he includes quotes from some experts on the potential results of the deal.

"Chris Archer is a very good prospect with excellent upside. Lee, Guyer, Chirinos are all nice players. Sam Fuld is a journeyman. Garza has a chance to be a No. 1 starter. I like the deal from a Chicago perspective a lot," says Jim Kallis, a Minor League expert of Baseball America.


 "The Cubs gave up some good players and depth, but did not give up any elite stars. Garza is 27-years-old, is injury free and has the potential to be a No. 1 starter. Plus, you have him under cost control for three years. That's a very impressive trade by Jim Hendry," says Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus.


Garza has a lot of upside because many baseball experts have him becoming a top of the rotation ace, a guy who could win you 15 games especially now that he's in the National League and most of the hitters haven't seen him before.  Traditionally, when a batter and pitcher face for the first time, the pitcher has the advantage because even if the batter, for example, likes the ball up and in, then the pitcher can do his homework and change his strategy before the game and the hitter has to make adjustments in real time.  The pitcher can change his tendencies and locations to each hitter, while the hitter has to hit although the pitcher already knows where he struggles and will most definitely pitch there.  


In 2011, the top three of the Cubs rotation look great as of now.  With Ryan Dempster as the ace, Matt Garza following Dempster and Carlos Zambrano following Garza, the trio should produce 40 wins.  Dempster is and Garza are, barring injury, locks for 10 wins and Zambrano, of course assuming he controls his anger this season, could do the same.  It seems like we were in the same position with Zambrano as we were last season: we knew that if he could control his emotions then he could be the ace he used to be.  This offseason, however, there is a distinct difference.  Towards the end of 2009, his velocity fell and his fastball seemed flat compared to his former, hard throwing self.  Towards the end of 2010, his velocity was still down but he was winning games because he learned how to locate.  During Zambrano's 8-0 run late last season after returning from anger management, he could be seen locating his pitches where he hadn't before and with more consistency than ever.  Zambrano appears more prepared to win next season, and now won't be dependent on his velocity.  So he should be more reliable in 2011.  Dempster is as reliable as anybody and Garza has been injury and major slump free his whole career.  Right now on the North Side, things look good.