Survey Says: Competitive Balance Better in NL

There are plenty of reasons to think that the American League is the more powerful league.  The American League has won Interleague Play 10 of the 14 years it has been played (since 1997), the American League  won the All-Star Game 12 times in a row (not including the infamous tie in 2002), and the American League has the DH position giving the league better offensive statistics and an opportunity for out of shape sluggers to sit on the bench and then come up and drill homers.  However, through a study that's original work of Kwin, it appears there is more opportunity for teams in the National League despite having two more teams.

In the last decade (from 2000-2009), there were four AL teams that didn't qualify for the playoffs at all (Toronto, Baltimore, Kansas City, and Texas).  During that same span, there were three NL teams with the same characteristics (Montreal/Washington, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati), but the Reds are currently in first place and looking to enter the postseason for the first time since 1995.

The following is the number of years since the specified team has last made the playoffs:

National League

ATL: 5
PHI: 1
FLA: 7
NYM: 4
WAS: 29
East Average: 9.2 years

CIN: 15
STL:1
HOU: 5
MIL: 2
CHC: 2
PIT: 18
Central Average: 7.17 years

SD: 4
SF: 7
COL: 1
LAD: 1
ARI: 3
West Average: 3.2 years

NL AVERAGE: 6.56 years


American League

NYY: 1
TB: 2
BOS: 1
TOR: 17
BAL: 13
East Average: 6.8 years

MIN: 1
CWS: 2
DET: 4
KC: 25
CLE: 3
Central Average: 7.0 years

TEX: 15
OAK: 4
LAA: 1
SEA: 9
West Average: 7.25 years

AL AVERAGE: 7.0 years

The half a year difference might not seem like much to you, but it stands for the different type of ownership and roster organization that goes on in the American League.  The AL has been known for its power pitching and with the DH spot, usually reserved for power hitters, it is more of a power on power game where teams try to literally get bang for their buck.  Obviously, this takes money.  The constant bidding war between the Red Sox and Yankees (see: AL East Twister) means there's a lot of money spent on talent.  Money, however, isn't necessarily directly correlated to wins; it's probably much less of a factor than you thought it was.

The following is the average opening day payroll from the playoff teams of each league.  Note the difference between AL and NL.

2000:
AL: $53 million
NL: $69.25 million

2001:
AL: $77 million
NL: $81 million

2002:
AL: $66.25 million
NL: $86.75 million

2003:
AL: $89 million
NL: $79 million

2004:
AL: $115.25 million
NL: $81.5 million

2005:
AL: $124 million
NL: $79 million

2006:
AL: $100.25 million
NL: $89 million

2007:
AL: $125.5 million
NL: $75.75 million

2008:
AL: $104 million
NL: $103.5 million

2009:
AL: $125.25 million
NL: $94 million

Total:
AL: $95.26 million
NL: $83.88 million

The trend here is that the American League consistently has the higher payroll.  The National League teams are paying less per player, and thus they are more cost efficient.  This means that the NL has a better ability to operate in smaller markets where attendance may dwindle when not in contention and the payroll is quite limited.  Like I said before, the AL is a power game where big bucks equals big bang, while the difference of play in the NL can also be a difference in the way the team is constructed.  A team using smallball tactics like bunting, sacrificing, and aggressive baserunning will probably be more likely to bring up players who are familiar with the way that organization is going to play ball, and the players in the organization will know that their only chance to play in the bigs is to play it that way.  It is easier for a team with a limited payroll, or an expansion team with no current talent, to follow this method to win, but sometimes in the American League there is no way to beat the team hurling dough at the prized signings.

In 2000, 2001, 2003, and 2009 the Yankees represented the AL in the World Series.  In 2004 and 2007, the Red Sox represented the AL in the World Series.  In 2008 and 2009, the Phillies did the same for the NL.  But all of the other teams to appear in the Fall Classic only appeared once in the decade, with nine different teams qualifying in the NL and just six different teams appearing in the AL.

The only division in baseball where all five teams made the playoffs in the last decade (with two advancing to the World Series) is the National League West, the ultimate example of rebuilding and player development.  The Dodgers are the only high spending team in the division, but ironically they weren't one of the two that made the World Series.  The 2007 Rockies opening day payroll was $54 million, the third-lowest of all the 40 NL playoff teams.  The Giants have been known for harvesting Japanese talent along with most of the West Coast teams, a unique option out there.  The Padres operate a model small market franchise and still field great teams always with impressive young talent.  The Diamondbacks became immensely popular in the early 2000s when Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling were the aces of the desert.  They since have brought up great talent in players like Chris Young, Justin Upton, and Stephen Drew.

The flash and glory of the American League game may make the baseball fan stare in awe, but the fundamentals and rebuilding of the National League allow teams a better shot at getting a shot to win it all.  For most teams right now though, it's just Wait Till' Next Year once again.