Debuts Today

It's been two busy days for the MLB Network.  The Draft yesterday and the debut of the two biggest prospects heading into the 2010 season today, Mike Stanton of the Marlins and Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals.  Young talent like this is the reason that Tim Kurkjian forecasted a power shift from the AL East to the NL East, a bold forecast that has never been heard on ESPN before.

Stephen Strasburg, famous for his 103 mph fastball in college and the number one draft pick last year, makes his debut today starting against the Pittsburgh Pirates.  He has great control and a good changeup that sits well with his fastball.  This combination is critical for power pitchers; no matter how fast you throw it, hitters will catch up unless you have something else to offset their timing.  I see his 2010 stat line like this: 96 IP, 2.88 ERA, 108 K, 35 BB.  In 2011 his ERA will undoubtedly rise, because when a new pitcher arrives the pitcher, not the hitter has the advantage when two guys who have never faced each other do.  Especially in Strasburg's case, because it's not every day you see 100 mph regularly on the four seamer.  Hitters will make adjustments to push Strasburg's ERA well into the threes.  What will determine if he can truly be an ace is if he can overcome these adjustments and find a new way to succeed.

Mike Stanton is the definition of power.  By the time the Marlins open their new park in 2012, I see him as the face of the franchise.  With 21 HR (!) in the minors already, on pace for around 55, he was called up and makes his debut today.  Coming into the majors, he obviously won't begin by raking how he has been, but it shows his potential.  He will be a 30 HR hitter by next year, but this year won't be anything spectacular.  His average which has hovered around .300 this year is being held up by the homers.  Making the adjustment, his average will drop and he won't be hitting .300 for a while.  He does strike out a bit, but doesn't every power hitter?  Expect about 150 K in a full season from Stanton.  In AAA, he has the freedom to be a free swinger.  But when he gets to the Marlins, I'm convinced they're going to try to teach the guy some more plate discipline to be a smarter hitter overall.  This will decrease home runs as well.  2010 stat line: 380 PA, .261 AVG, 12 HR, 44 RBI, 94 K.