2012 Cubs Preview: Outfield

You're not doing it right, Alfonso.  When they
say, 'use your head', they don't mean it like that.

Aging bunch to be aided and eventually replaced by younger players

Although the past decade has seen all kinds of changes in the Wrigley outfield, 2012 will not bring drastic changes.  At least, not right away.

For the fifth consecutive season, veteran Alfonso Soriano will man left field (he started 2007 in center).  Soriano takes a lot of criticism for not living up to his gargantuan contract, and most of it is fair.  It was a bad contract to begin with and there's little hope that he'll ever return to the form the Cubs thought they were getting.

In his outstanding 2006 season with the Nationals, his walk year, he became only the fourth player ever to have a 40-40 season with 46 homers and 41 steals.  In five seasons since with the Cubs, he has totaled 54 steals.  In his first two seasons with the Cubs he hit .291 with 62 homers and 38 steals while missing significant time to leg injuries both years.  A reduction in steals was understandable, and the offense was definitely there so Cubs fans remained hopeful.  However, a miserable 2009 showed that he had lost a considerable amount of talent from his glory days with New York and Texas.  From 2009-11 he hit only .248 and averaged about 23 homers per season, a far cry from the 36 he averaged between 2004-06.  He had lost virtually all speed, stealing just 16 bases between 2009-11.

Add all of those offensive woes to his already bad defense, and you've got an average to below-average player making $20 million per year now.  Soriano flashed early power least season before again fading into the mediocrity Cubs fans have become accustomed to.  It was almost a tease, but he could do it again and give the Cubs a legitimate power threat.  He's not hard to get out because he still chases the sliders too much.  26 homers and 88 RBIs, however, aren't that bad if you ignore the average, contract, and defense.  That's only one home run less than Adrian Gonzalez's total of 27, and as many RBIs as Justin Upton produced last season.

Center fielder Marlon Byrd

Despite all the negatives around Soriano, he represents the biggest power threat in this outfield.  The starting center fielder, Marlon Byrd, enters his third season with the Cubs and the final one on his contract.  Byrd is 34 and definitely declining offensively, bringing disappointing power and speed skills for a center fielder.  He is a fan favorite for his effort and defensive hustle, and those may get even better this season.  You see, Byrd lost about 40 pounds this offseason so the size comparisons to an NFL linebacker will most definitely not be heard anymore.  That's all good and well, but it won't make him any more valuable offensively where, frankly, he's lacking.

The starting right fielder will be newcomer David DeJesus.  DeJesus, like Soriano and Byrd, is on the wrong side of 30 although he is the youngest of the group at 32.  If there's one thing that has defined his career so far, it's been his ability to get on base.  He has a career .356 OBP with a career high of .384 from 2010.  Playing all but one year of his career with the Royals, he has virtually no winning experience.  Not even a year with Oakland in 2011 could change that.

Right fielder David DeJesus

DeJesus does not have great size at 5'11", 190 lbs., but he's a nice, athletic player defensively.  I'm unsure about his arm, and I hope to see more during Spring Training.  Offensively, his power is about a tick below Byrd's, but I would take DeJesus over Byrd because DeJesus is a lefty who makes better contact (never striking out more than 87 times in a season), is more patient, and has a more compact, fluid swing.  DeJesus is a low ball hitter who spreads line drives to all fields well.  I was skeptical at first because DeJesus is somewhat average in all five tools for outfielders, but he's a solid lefty bat with enough skills defensively to play a respectable right field.  I'm content with him in right.

Now for the backups, part-timers, and call-ups.  Bryan LaHair will presumably get some innings if not a few starts in the outfield after he started most of his major league games in right field last September.  For a breakdown of his play, see the post below as he's also the starting first baseman.  Ahead of him on the depth chart, however, are Tony Campana and Reed Johnson.

Speedy fourth outfielder Tony Campana

Campana, 25, has apparently changed his jersey number to #1 for this season and beyond after Kosuke Fukudome's departure left the number vacated.  Although Campana isn't actually '#1' as in most valuable on this team, he could prove to be pretty close to it by the end of the season.  Manager Dale Sveum said at the Cubs Convention that he wants to have a more athletic team that steals more bases.  Well, Dale, it's going to be hard to do that looking at the roster here, as the Cubs finished 2011 with the third-fewest steals in the league.  Campana, however, accounted for 24 of the Cubs' 69 team steals.  He was also only caught twice, giving him one of the best stolen-base ratios in the league.

The dude is seriously undersized at 5'8", 165 lbs., but he does play superb defense and hustles like no one else on the roster.  His 'baseball kid' character shines through in a way reminiscent of former outfield utilityman Sam Fuld, but Campana brings the blazing speed Fuld didn't have on the basepaths.  In the minors, Campana has stolen up to 66 bases.  If he wants to use that speed in the majors, however, he'll have to prove he can get on base consistently.

Johnson, 35, never had speed anywhere close to Campana's.  If you've seen Johnson chase down a dropping fly ball in left field, however, you might not have known that.  Reed is also a definite fan favorite for his commitment to defensive play.  It's not even that Johnson has some rocket arm he can show off to the fans; rather, he just hustles to every fly ball and looks like a complete natural diving for the ball, showing no fear.  This kind of effort is what the fans want to see, and it was lacking on the 2011 team; especially from the player Johnson usually replaced in the late innings, Soriano.

Backup outfielder Reed Johnson

Johnson had a great offensive season in 2011, hitting .309 and even throwing in a walk-off homer.  He's a great high-ball hitter who hits fastballs and changeups well, and he uses the entire strike zone.  He is, however, a dead righty pull hitter.  The lefty Campana uses the entire field with more regularity despite the fact that Johnson is a more experienced hitter overall.  In a post over a month ago I disagreed with the decision to resign Johnson, preferring Campana to be the primary fourth outfielder.  Now that the Cubs have signed him, however, they're bound to give him at least a bit of playing time.

Unless Soriano or Byrd are traded midseason, there is little chance that Johnson and Campana both remain on the major league roster all season.  That's because top prospect Brett Jackson will probably debut sometime this season.  Jackson was the organization's top draft pick in 2009 and so far the high status has paid off as he's been great in the minor leagues.  The lefty-batting Jackson has 20-20 potential with solid defensive skills, projecting as the Cubs' future starting center fielder.  I discussed Jackson more in-depth in my post on top prospects recently, read more about him here.

There's no doubt the outfield for the Cubs is an aging group right now.  It's going to change a lot in the next few years, however, as I think Soriano and Byrd will both be gone by this time next season.  Jackson should be the starting center fielder for years to come, and prospects Matt Szczur and Reggie Golden, neither of whom will debut in the majors this season, will play major roles in for the big league Cubs in a few years barring trades or free agent signings.  The key question for the current group of Soriano, Byrd, and DeJesus is how much value is still left in these aging veterans?  Can Soriano hit for a high enough average to make himself valuable in the trade market?  Can Byrd stay healthy and prove his weight loss expands his abilities and delays his aging process?  Can DeJesus fully recover from a bad season in Oakland last year?

The 2011 All-Division Team, Part 1: AL East

Jose Bautista highlights a stacked division yet again.

Part 1 of 6: American League East

Here again for the second year in a row is the Cubs Insider All-Division Team, back for 2011.  This year the posts will be divided into six; one for each division, going East to West in both leagues.  In this first installment of my ramblings, I'll be going over the best (most valuable to his team's season performance) of the Orioles, Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, and Red Sox by position.  Runners-up are listed in no particular order and any player who has won the award again after winning it last season is noted as such.

C Matt Wieters, BAL
After 2010 award winner John Buck departed Toronto for Florida last offseason and Jorge Posada was effectively benched indefinitely from the Yankees' signing of Russell Martin, there was not a clear favorite to take the throne in this division.  In his third season, Wieters blossomed at age 25, earning his first trip to the All-Star Game and capping off another forgettable Orioles season with a little hardware for himself, his first Gold Glove award.  A 4.0 WAR and 22 homers don't hurt either, and a notably decreased strikeout rate (which was already low to begin with) show that these probably won't be the last of awards for the South Carolina native.  Competition: Kelly Shoppach (TB), Russell Martin (NYY), J.P. Arencibia (TOR), Jarrod Saltamacchia (BOS).

1B Adrian Gonzalez, BOS (2nd, first with Red Sox)
A-Gon narrowly had the best season of his career despite playing in a drastically better lineup in 2011 than ever before.  That speaks to Gonzalez's consistency no matter who his teammates are, whether they're on base or not.  The fact is Gonzalez was an excellent fit for the Red Sox with his opposite-field power for the Green Monster and he proved it with an All-Star selection, Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger.  There's certainly talent at the position in the division with Mark Teixeira blasting 39 homers in the Bronx and Adam Lind holding his own north of the border, but Gonzalez fit right in with the established Red Sox core and got them deep into the playoffs.  Competition: Casey Kotchman (TB), Mark Teixeira (NYY), Adam Lind (TOR), Derrek Lee (BAL).

2B Robinson Cano, NYY (2nd)
Critics will argue that Dustin Pedroia's combination of power and speed both contributed more to the Red Sox, but I make the argument that if Pedroia goes down for a month in the regular season, I see the Red Sox surviving in the standings more than I do if the Yankees were to lose Cano.  On an aging team where Cano is one of only three starters under 30, Cano is great lineup protection for Teixeira, especially this season as Alex Rodriguez had a dismal year.  Competition: Ben Zobrist (TB), Dustin Pedroia (BOS), Robert Andino (BAL), Aaron Hill (TOR).

3B Evan Longoria, TB 
In a group with Mark Reynolds, Alex Rodriguez, Kevin Youkilis, and Longoria, I would have thought this running would come down to the wire.  Instead, this choice was rather easy.  Despite a .244 batting average, Longoria's OBP that's over 100 points higher and 31 home runs helped him win the running.  Besides, he'll always be remembered this season for one of the biggest hits of the year, the walk-off homer against the Yankees to win the AL Wild Card away from the Red Sox.  Competition: Kevin Youkilis (BOS), Alex Rodriguez (NYY), Mark Reynolds (BAL), and Brett Lawrie (TOR).

J.J. Hardy's career is back in
full swing (pun intended).

SS J.J. Hardy, BAL
Perhaps Hardy has found a permanent home on his third team in as many years, as a breakout season saw consistent power throughout on his way to an incredible 30 home runs from the shortstop.  I want to believe it isn't a fluke, and I have confidence that it is not.  But no matter how the Orioles were doing this season, Hardy was the team MVP in being a model power hitter; never great at getting on base, but a decent contact hitter and defender nonetheless.  Competition: Derek Jeter (NYY), Marco Scutaro (BOS), Reid Brignac (TB), and Yunel Escobar (TOR).

LF Sam Fuld, TB
'Super Sam' walked onto a weak field of incumbents by taking left field in 2011.  Early on the season, however, Fuld made a real impact on the Rays.  Despite getting nearly a full season's worth of at-bats, his defensive WAR exceeded his offensive WAR.  Making highlight reel catches and clutch hits on a daily basis, the scrappy little former Cub even inspired a Super Sam cape promotion at Tropicana Field.  Competition: Nolan Reimold (BAL), Brett Gardner (NYY), Carl Crawford (BOS), Eric Thames (TOR).

CF Curtis Granderson, NYY
I didn't think it was possible, but my man Curtis failed to get enough love in the MVP consideration, finishing only fourth in voting after a 40-25 season as a by-product of his revamped swing built with Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long in late 2010.  Granderson did have the benefits of the insanely short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium and good lineup protection, but brought a swagger-factor to the 2011 Yanks.  Oh, and led MLB in runs scored, proving that the Grandy Man Can.  Competition: Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS), Adam Jones (BAL), Rajai Davis (TOR), and B.J. Upton (TB).

RF Jose Bautista, TOR (2nd)
Was there really any doubt?  Joey Bats finished off his second season in out-of-nowhere stardom much like he did his first.  Bautista added 43 homers to his stat sheet like it was no big deal.  Most impressive to me, however, is his 132 walks to 111 strikeouts, resulting in an OBP of .447, nearly 150 points higher than his batting average!  Regardless of being a big slugger who often gets pitched around, 132 walks is a thing of beauty.  And after the Black Blue Jays ended another spending-October-on-the-couch season, he got to play dress up to display the Jays new threads.  Competition: Matt Joyce (TB), Nick Swisher (NYY), Nick Markakis (BAL), and J.D. Drew (BOS).

DH David Ortiz, BOS
If the designated hitter's role is known as a low on-base, high power and strikeout batter, which it often has been, then Ortiz is the anti-DH.  Getting on base nearly 40% of the time, Big Papi's late career demise of 2008 and 2009 has recovered to the extent that Ortiz is still a very smart hitter who knows how to take a few pitches.  He does strike out plenty walked nearly as much in 2011, and a new team could replenish his systems after the bad spiral the Sawks' season took.  Competition: Jorge Posada (NYY), Vladimir Guerrero (BAL), Johnny Damon (TB), and Edwin Encarnacion (TOR).

SP Ricky Romero, TOR
Yet another interesting piece the Jays have found, this 26-year-old Los Angeles native completed his third season in the big leagues and already is the definite ace of his team.  Romero doesn't give up many hits, just walks and strikeouts mostly.  Ironically, his 2.92 ERA and 15 wins were the 'stuff' of aces, and yet his 26 homers allowed wouldn't suggest an ace and was 11 more than the year before.  This kid has a lot of good years to come however.  Honorable mention to James Shields, who made this decision extremely tough.  Competition: C.C. Sabathia (NYY), Josh Beckett (BOS), and James Shields (TB), and Jeremy Guthrie (BAL).  

CP Mariano Rivera, NYY
'Mo', now 41-years-old, just struck out 60 and walked eight in 2011.  If that doesn't tell you all you need to know, maybe his .897 WHIP or his 1.91 ERA will.  Rivera is still the best at the position in the league and might as well pitch himself to the grave.  I hate the thought of handing double-digit millions to closers, but Rivera is the exception to the rule.  Just unbelievable.  Competition: Kevin Gregg (BAL), Kyle Farnsworth (TB), Jonathan Papelbon (BOS), Frank Francisco (TOR).

Well that's all I have for now.  Back with more soon.  I hope everyone is having a nice holiday weekend!

Cubs Positional Breakdown: Outfield

LF: Alfonso Soriano
Entering the 4th year of his enormous contract, Soriano is still looking for a full season.  Cub Nation has been very disappointed in the former 40-40 outfielder.  Playing just 135, 109, and 117 games in the last three years, respectively, he has only put up 82 HR and 47 SB.  He has also become a liability in left field.  His infamous hop catch has become the subject of much controversy surrounding his injury risk and arm.  His bat is prone to hot and cold streaks.  I have liked Soriano from the day he was signed, but have frequently been frustrated with him.  His bat is very potent and I think he should not be in the #6 spot in the batting order.  Leadoff isn't the answer either, but I just think #6 is too low.  This will be the most important season yet for Alfonso to produce before he loses all faith from the Cubs.

CF: Marlon Byrd
Byrd, nearly acquired before the 2009 season, is a fantastic replacement in the clubhouse for Milton Bradley.  A more reliable power bat, Byrd can also surprise everybody with slick defense by a big guy in center.  He will even steal a few bases.  I really like this signing because it is a perfect fit for the Cubs.  His deal was not outrageously expensive while the center field prospects can still be given plenty of time.  From what I've seen, Byrd's swing appears more slump-proof than that of Soriano's or Kosuke Fukudome's.  He can be a guy to keep the offense moving when everyone else is stuck, kind of like how Jeff Baker does.

RF: Kosuke Fukudome
A former MVP from Japan, Fukudome has yet to live up to his contract.  He had an 'effective' year by most fans' standards, but I have not seen enough.  In Japan, he used to be a 25 HR, 100 RBI, .300 AVG player but has yet to come close to any of those stats in America.  Fukudome has targeted a .300 AVG for his goal this year, but what about the power?  Fantasy-wise, Kosuke offers little to no value.  On the Cubs, he has offered great defense and a strong arm, but no power and some hitting slumps.

UTIL: Xavier Nady
Nady, a 25 HR hitter in 2008 with the Pirates and Yankees, was the perfect choice for a fourth outfielder.  He is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, so it is good that we aren't relying on him to be an everyday outfielder.  If he does in fact stay injured, we have a surplus of minor league outfielders ready to make the leap.  Nady is still a notorious BP hitter who lauches fly balls out.  His fly ball hitting style will be welcomed at Wrigley Field.

UTIL/AAA: Tyler Colvin
Colvin definitely got on the Cubs radar when he got a late call up in September.  He also put on some pounds to increase his power output, possibly the only flaw in his game.  He can steal some bases and impress in the field.  I haven't seen much of this guy, but his reports sound good.  I say bring him up!  He is in competition with Sam Fuld for the fifth outfielder spot.  I give the spot to Colvin.  Find out why in Fuld's description.  Colvin should be a ready and able fifth outfielder for the Cubs who all of a sudden have more outfield depth than they've had in at least a decade.  Look for him as a spot starter and late inning replacement.


UTIL/AAA: Sam Fuld
Fuld saw more time with the Cubs than Colvin did in 2009, all the more reason for Colvin to get more time.  However, Fuld will make it a tough decision for Lou Piniella and the Cubs brass.  Easily the best defensive outfielder for at least the last half decade on the Cubs, Fuld also surprised some with an average that hung around .300 for his limited at-bats.  He played in 65 games for 97 at-bats with great plate discipline but only two RBI, both of which were collected in the same game.  He will need to improve on that number.  I think with the outfield bench logjam of Nady, Colvin, and Fuld, I think that unless Fuld can move to another position or become a Mark DeRosa-type utility player, he doesn't fit into the 2010 Cubs puzzle, but I do hope to see him around in the future.